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The Liberal Party has fallen out of love with itself. It is evident; it is unmissable. But a divorce is not necessarily the right answer.

The greatest challenge that the Liberal Party faces at this election is not the Labor Party, but the disaffection of former Liberals to the left and the right. While comment has focused on the fear of moderate Liberals that a teal wave could dislodge many of the factions leading lights, turning the party over to the conservative faction, the danger of soft Liberal voters with other priorities peeling off to a range of non-teal minors is just as destabilising. Even a Liberal Party reduced to a conservative rump may be optimistic as new arrangements of Liberal defectors position themselves to attract the traditional conservative base.

Those on the right who have split with the Liberal Party are coming for the partys conservative voters: George Christensen, Craig Kelly, Campbell Newman, John RuddickCredit:SMH

One-time Queensland Liberal premier Campbell Newman and erstwhile Liberal Party reformer John Ruddick are now courting voters with libertarian leanings as senate candidates for the Liberal Democrats. Then there is the United Australia Party with star candidate and former Liberal member for Hughes Craig Kelly. Resigning Liberal member for Dawson George Christensen has, perhaps venally, aligned himself with Pauline Hansons One Nation. For the sake of convenience, though not accuracy, lets refer to those three groupings as right-wing.

While all these men have niche appeal and low chances of gaining the senate or representative spots they are contesting, the softness of the vote makes them important factors in this election and after it. For one thing, the return of the Morrison government depends on whether the sizeable soft vote favours the major party or creates crazy preference flows with the parties of principle. For another, how the party reconstitutes after polling day will be influenced by their voices.

One thing both the supposedly left-Liberal and right-Liberal defectors have in common is that they believe only they represent real Liberal principles and they are willing to kill the party to save it from others. In the media this is most visible among the supporters of the purportedly Liberal-lite teals, like former prime minister Malcolm Turnbull and former Liberal leader John Hewson (and thanks to the ministrations of these gentlemen, the term moderate Liberal risks becoming synonymous with one who wants anything other than the Liberal Party to win). But by splintering the main party, the right-wing defectors are also destroying an alliance that the Liberal Party depends on for scale as well as representative breadth.

This sectarian war is, of course, not new. Before Morrison assumed the prime ministership, the decade of leadership guerilla war and knifings in the Australian Liberal Party reflected a phenomenon that was taking place in similar democracies. The marriage of conservatives and classical liberals was on the rocks. The children had moved out of home, as it were, when the Cold War ended. Mummy and daddy were starting to think they didnt have so much in common anymore.

Rattling around in the philosophical house together, without socialism to jointly oppose, they began to realise each others flaws. As classical liberals celebrated the virtues of globalism, conservatives worried that the liberals breezy acceptance of disruption and globalism had lost sight of the value of tradition and the virtue of nationhood. Conservatives began to posit the notion that the liberal freedom doctrine led not to less state intervention, but to an inevitable requirement that the state regulate all freedoms. As the alliance fell apart and the philosophical alignments came into conflict, liberal scholar Anne Applebaum wrote poignantly about the parting of friends.

But it is, like many late-life break-ups, nonsensical. Rather than a liberation, it is a failure to appreciate that even imperfect relationships make us whole. Thats something that should resonate with conservatives, who seek a return to a more wholistic understanding that society is not built around individual freedom, but around mutual care. If only environmentalist moderates understood this, they might also find a way to connect with conservatives on conservation.

Indeed, the shortcomings of each of the groups that have splintered from the Liberals shows how much they need one another.

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Danger for the Liberal Party coming from the right as well as the teals - Sydney Morning Herald

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When members of the Trudeau government insist they relied on advice from police before they brought in the Emergencies Act in February to clear a truckers convoy from downtown Ottawa, theyre, um, not being exactly truthful.

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A quick search of Postmedias archives shows that on at least six occasions during the state of emergency and since, Public Safety Minister Marco Mendicino has insisted it was only because police asked for special powers that the Liberals suspended Canadians civil liberties and seized the bank accounts and assets of hundreds of people connected with the Freedom Convoy.

But we now have proof Mendicinos claims (and similar claims by Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland and Emergency Preparedness Minister Bill Blair) were utter hogwash.

This week, RCMP Commissioner Brenda Lucki told the joint Commons-Senate committee studying the use of the Emergencies Act that Mounties never recommended the government invoke the most draconian law on Canadas books. Nor, to the best of her knowledge, did any other law enforcement agency.

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In the middle of the state of emergency (which existed from Feb. 14 to 23), Mendicino said, We are listening to law enforcement. According to law enforcement we need the Emergencies Act.

As recently as three weeks ago long after the government had ended the state of emergency Mendicino was backfilling with statements such as, We had to invoke the Emergencies Act and we did so on the basis of non-partisan professional advice from law enforcement, and, It was only after we got advice from law enforcement that we invoked the Emergencies Act.

However, on Tuesday, when Senator Vernon White (himself a former Ottawa police chief) asked Lucki about these claims, the commissioner said No, there was never a question of requesting the Emergencies Act.

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Lucki explained the RCMP had given daily factual reports to the staff of various cabinet ministers, but had never given any specific advice about invoking the successor legislation to the War Measures Act.

Indeed, Lucki went further and explained that during the four blockades by truckers at border crossings including high-profile blockades on Windsors Ambassador Bridge and Coutts, Alberta we successfully used a measured approach and existing legislation to resolve (the) blockades.

Now tie all of the Trudeau-ites obfuscation over whether police asked them to declare a state of emergency with testimony before the same committee two weeks ago.

On that occasion, MPs and senators were told by Liberal Justice Minister David Lametti that he had invoked the Emergencies Act after the CBC reported that foreigners likely Russians and American white nationalists were funding the convoy.

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The RCMP have said they werent telling the government that. Nor were CSIS, Ottawa police or the money-laundering investigators at the Department of Finance.

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Indeed, Finance Canadas specialized forensic investigators specifically told their cabinet bosses that the convoys GoFundMe campaign was pretty much what it appeared to be: thousands of small donors simply wanting to help out the truckers who were protesting continued pandemic restrictions.

In early March, the CBC retracted the false foreign-funded, foreign-controlled story.

What Lamettis testimony shows is that the government believed only what it wanted to hear i.e. false reports from their buds at the CBC. And despite ministers insistence ever since, they never acted on advice or requests by any police agency. (Unless the government means Grade 3 crossing guards in Ottawas trendy Glebe neighbourhood who overheard something on the way to school and reported to their moms and dads who work for cabinet.)

Once again, we have been shown that a combination of elite snobbery, progressive self-delusion, hysteria and misplaced faith in the CBC led to suspension of Canadians civil liberties just to rid our nations capital of truckers with loud horns and bouncy castles.

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GUNTER: Yet more Liberal falsehoods surrounding the convoy have been debunked - Toronto Sun

This notable trend has everything to do with the fact that the political shelf life of heads of government, not only in Australia but around the Western democratic world, has been steadily shortening.

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In other words, leaders increasingly either get turfed by their parties or the electorate long before they are ready to call it a day. Alternatively, leaders leave on their terms. Invariably, calling it a day to spend more time with the family is a well-used bit of spin for seeing the writing on the wall not always, but often. Just look at the churn in political leaders in both government and opposition, federal and state, since 1975.

Shorter shelf lives are not unique to politics. Senior executive roles, including chief executives, tell a similar story, although for reasons of governance and accountability to shareholders and stakeholders, succession planning and orderly handovers come into play more than they do in the relatively volatile world of politics. But gone are the 20-year stints at the helm of a public company.

So, what are we to make of who gets a place at the table when it comes to election campaigns? Does it really matter that Scott Morrison has barely been seen in the seats most under threat by the so-called teal independents? Is it personal? Or a sign of the times?

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The pollsters and pundits are in overdrive reading the entrails of the prime ministers travel itinerary, attempting to work out whether a seismic shift is about to occur in just eight days that could see a lower house role for non-major party representatives. Whatever the outcome, one of the major parties will be on the treasury benches for the next three years.

Cut through the noise of the federal election campaign with news, views and expert analysis from Jacqueline Maley. Sign up to our Australia Votes 2022 newsletter here.

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The scorned former PM who left the Liberals weaker and paved the way for a teal wave - Sydney Morning Herald

We're rounding the final bend, but the election campaign marathon is now becoming a sprint to the finish, with political parties of all stripes upping their campaign pace and ad spend.

Analysis of social media spending data and the movements of major party leaders suggests neither party vying for government wants to leave anything on the table in their bid to form government in less than a week.

And the data suggests that if you're sick of the campaign already, you might want to switch off social media for the next week, because the advertising is only ramping up.

Data from Facebook's ad library report shows that in the week ending Tuesday, more than $3 million was spent by advertisers in Australia on election, political and social issues.

That's up from about $2 million the week prior.

The figures include not-for-profit groups and other campaigners running ads on issues not explicitly linked to the federal election.

Spending is up everywhere, but when you account for the populations of each state and territory, we see that Tasmanians are getting far more attention than any other Australians.

That reflects the fact that a sizeable chunk of the island state's population lives in a crucial marginal seat, and the narrowing attention on key seats as targets for ads advertising.

The spend may well exceed the levels seen during the Tasmanian state election campaign last year, before the campaign winds up.

While everyone is upping the ante, one party has escalated quicker than the others.

The ABC has categorised each Facebook advertiser that has spent more than $100 in a single day on the platform at any point this year, according to whether they are political in nature, and which party or group they belong to.

Doing this gives a more comprehensive look at spending patterns across the parties than by looking at any individual candidate or party account.

The analysis shows that while the major parties had been in relative lock step through to mid-way through the campaign, Labor has since rapidly increased its spend on the platform.

Most of Labor's spend has been on the national party account, which has also dialed up its negative messaging since the first day of the campaign.

The ABC has looked at the messaging in all ads with at least $200 spent on them on the major party's main account, and classified them as primarily positive, or primarily negative.

Precise dollar figures for each ad are not disclosed by Facebook, but the ads represent, counting very conservatively, at least $1.3 million worth of spending.

The analysis does not consider any ad on any candidate or state party page.

Labor's account started the campaign purely positive, but that quickly shifted.

It swung the dial entirely negative in late April with a barrage of attack ads about Scott Morrison, but has since moderated to the point where roughly half of its ads are negative.

Meanwhile, every single ad the Liberal Party has spent more than $200 on since April 26 has been negative, attacking either Labor, Anthony Albanese, Labor candidates, or independents.

Those are the big ads at least, but both major parties are also running scores of ads with smaller spends, and the messages in those vary.

The Liberals launched a series of ads targeted at individual electorates this week.

The ads promoting "Our Plan"have been running in at least 23 key seats, featuring the party's candidates and MPs.

But the plan changes from seat to seat.

While everyone's being told the Liberals will deliver "More Jobs", "Lower Taxes", "Better Health"and "Better Roads", the fifth plank of the plan varies.

In 16 seats, including Corangamite, Pearce, and Braddon, "Stronger Defence"is being promised.

But in other seats, including those like Kooyong and Goldstein being challenged by teal independents, voters are being told about the plan for a "Cleaner Environment".

The other seats that the Liberals clearly feel like the environment is a key issue are Flinders, Curtin, Sturt, Chisholm and Boothby.

The party is also tailoring its message in other parts of the country, like in Canberra, where the local branch of the Liberal Party is chasing the vote of consultants.

"Do you work as a contractor or consultant to the APS," the ad asks.

"Under a Labor-Greens Alliance your job is at serious risk."

It's possibly the only part of the country where they make up a significant enough voting bloc to warrant direct targeting.

This week, Labor has again been running ads to older Australians, stoking fears about the cashless debit card.

One ad bought by Queensland Labor features a pensioner from Bribie Island, who says "I won't risk my pension on Scott Morrison".

Bribie Island is located in the key marginal seat of Longman, currently held by the LNP on a 3.3 per cent margin.

Victorian Labor is also running ads on the topic, promising to "scrap the cashless debit card".

While proving the effectiveness of any individual ad is an impossible task, Google Trends data does reveal a modest increase in search traffic for the term "cashless debit" in those two states in the most recent week.

The same lift has not occurred in other states for which data is available.

Posted14 May 202214 May 2022Sat 14 May 2022 at 7:07pm, updated19h ago19 hours agoSun 15 May 2022 at 7:17am

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What Labor and Liberal Facebook ad spend tells us about where the election campaign is heading - ABC News

With the election heating up, local candidates are busy trying to prove theyre the best fit to represent constituents at Queens Park. But the races are tight and all kinds of factors could swing the outcomes. Today, we take a closer look at three compelling ridings, and what candidates are up against.

As he chats breezily with customers at a small Caribbean lunch counter, Faisal Hassan doesnt look like a guy in a fight for his political life.

Hey, how are you? Family doing well? says Hassan as a customer comes up to greet him while hes waiting in line for tea at Fahmee Bakery.

Another asks if Hassan can help a relative out, and hands him a business card.

Let me see what I can do, says Hassan.

But the relatively cheerful tone belies the fact Hassan could be facing the prospect of becoming a one-term MPP.

In a riding that was previously represented by a Liberal at Queens Park for all but a few months of its existence, Hassan is already swimming upstream as the NDP candidate in York SouthWeston. Throw in the fact that the Progressive Conservative candidate happens to be Mike Ford yes, Dougs nephew and being the incumbent suddenly doesnt seem like the automatic advantage it often can be.

Hassan insists hes not worried, and says Ford who represents a neighbouring district on Toronto city council isnt a serious threat.

If the PCs were going to win this riding, it would have been in 2018, says Hassan, referring to the previous election, when PC candidate Mark DeMontis finished a close second to Hassan, earning 32.95 per cent of the vote to Hassans 36.07. Incumbent Laura Albanese finished third, with 27.83 per cent, as voters swept Kathleen Wynnes Liberals out of office across the province. That was a wave. And waves come and go.

Besides, Hassan sniffs, Ford doesnt even live in the riding and he didnt resign his council seat to run.

Hows he going to represent our community? Whos looking after the people? Its all about somebodys career.

Ford, meanwhile, is careful to point out hes donating his council salary to charity during the provincial election campaign, and that his constituency office staff is still busily working away.

People can call the office, people can call some of the neighbouring councillors. They can call me, too, but I wont be able to get back to them as quickly as I usually do. Work is still getting done. People can still get help, says Ford.

As far as not living in the riding goes, Ford says its an area he knows well and not just because his council ward is right next door.

Its a community I know very well. Its a neighbourhood that Ive lived in and grew up here. Its a neighbourhood that I played hockey in, says Ford.

As for running in a riding that has never elected a PC candidate since it was first contested in 1999, Ford says he isnt trying to make a point. Its not, he says, like Justin Trudeau running for a House of Commons seat in the federal riding of Papineau, which had been a Bloc Qubcois stronghold.

It is not lost on me that this hasnt typically gone in the Conservatives direction, says Ford. I chose York SouthWeston because its a community I know well. I worked in the local councillors office for some time. I wouldnt put myself into a position where I would just go into a riding for the sake of going into a riding.

Ford, whose uncle Doug was swept into the premiers office on a PC wave four years ago and whose late uncle Rob was an often-controversial figure during his tenure as Torontos mayor isnt running away from his family name. Not that voters would let him, he says.

Lets put Doug and the PC party aside for a second. So many people come up to me and talk about Rob, and the work he did in our city and community connecting with people, says Ford. Rob is a big reason I got involved in politics and community service. He had a huge heart for this city.

But while acknowledging hes been inspired by his familys political history, Ford insists hes got his own way of doing things.

There are always preconceptions, theres no doubt about it. But I have a proven track record of getting the job done. Thats what Ive done at city hall for the last six years work with members of council of all stripes, says Ford, a claim backed up even by some of his most ardent opponents.

Joe Cressy, one of Toronto city councils most reliably left-wing votes, made fast friends with Mike Ford after Ford was elected to council in 2016, in his uncle Robs old ward.

I think I was elected at 30, and he was elected in his early 20s. We were the two youngest councillors. He used to jokingly refer to me as Old Man Cressy. We were the two kids on council, says Cressy, who recently resigned from council and is moving into a role with George Brown College.

Cressy and Ford would frequently tangle during council debates, but it never became bitter or personal, Cressy says.

Hes a conservative, proudly so, but hes also a very collaborative individual. And so Mike and I, we would debate against each other on the floor of council very strongly, and then wed go out for a beer afterwards together, says Cressy. Hes always been somebody whos been very clear in his politics, but very much a collaborative guy, and a decent, decent person.

But even if he offers a less combative style than his uncle Doug, Mike Ford still backs PC policies which havent been good for York SouthWeston, a riding that was hit hard during the COVID-19 pandemic, argue Hassan and Liberal candidate Nadia Guerrera, a veteran teacher with the Toronto Catholic District School Board.

It took us seven months to get a COVID-19 testing centre. And vaccines? They were going to other communities, says Hassan of the riding in the citys northwest corner, which early in the pandemic suffered some of the highest infection rates in the Greater Toronto Area.

That record during the pandemic will hurt Mike Fords chances on election day, says Guerrera, adding that many front-line workers at warehouses and manufacturers, as well as educators, live in the riding.

Theres a very strong anti-Ford sentiment in this riding, says Guerrera, who insists shes no long-shot, even though shes running against a big-name PC candidate and an NDP incumbent. In 2018, Guerrera finished a distant third for the Liberals in ParkdaleHigh Park, where Bhutila Karpoche cruised to victory for the NDP.

I dont think Im the underdog. The NDP incumbent hasnt delivered. Its a two-way race. And we are the progressive option.

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Originally posted here:
Can Doug Fords nephew topple the NDP incumbent in a Liberal riding? - Toronto Star