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For many progressives, Conservative leadership candidate Pierre Poilievre holds the appeal of an ingrown toenail. He exists only to slowly and relentlessly burrow under the skin, causing pain, frustration and annoyance. Fortunately for Poilievre, he doesnt have to sell himself to liberals, upper or lowercase.

His campaign raises legitimate questions about if he can broaden his appeal and win a general election, but that is no reason to assume he cant. In fact, someone in the Liberal party had better be working off the assumption that Poilievre will win the next election.

Without the electoral imagination to understand why people would vote for Poilievre, it will be difficult for Liberals to convince people why they shouldnt.

There are strategic exercises people who would never vote for Poilievre can use to build the case for him. They can show how Poilievre could win an election and give the Liberal party three years to build a plan to ensure that he does not.

People who have developed campaign messaging are familiar with the four boxes exercise. Participants come up with answers to fill message boxes titled what do we say about ourselves, what do we say about our opponents, what do our opponents say about us, and lastly, what do our opponents say about themselves.

The last one, what do opponents say about themselves, is often the most difficult and the most valuable. Describing your opponents ideas, using their language, forces people to explore why the other side may have appeal. Or, God forbid, a valid point.

Poilievre doesnt tell the people hes peddling grievance politics and blaming a system thats employed him his entire adult life. He says the government has left you behind, and that hes the guy to give you back your freedom to live your life while making sure you can afford it.

Your only response to that message cannot be that people are stupid for believing him.

Another exercise, taken from military planning, is the concept of a red team. The red team goes beyond understanding the other side and starts acting like them. Think of white-hat hackers, who attack cybersecurity systems to look for vulnerabilities so they can be fixed.

The smartest people the Liberals have should be writing policy memos in support of Poilievres policy to abolish the carbon tax, even attacking the Liberals for its implementation. Better Liberals attack their own policies and learn to defend them, than find themselves without answers when Poilievre does.

Blind spots can affect any organization united in a common cause. The State of Israel went so far as to create a doctrine colloquially referred to as the Tenth Man. Essentially, if nine people look at the same information and reach the same conclusion, the tenth one is obligated to argue the other side. (The most succinct explanation is found in World War Z, a largely underrated zombie movie.)

Rhetoric aside, Poilievre is talking about housing, affordability, inflation and freedom. He is also drawing large crowds and media coverage while he does it. If there are nine Liberals who dont think Poilievre can win the next election, it would be wise to have a tenth one arguing why he can and will.

Finding any politician detestable is no reason to think others will. There is plenty of outright hatred for Justin Trudeau in Conservative spaces, and hes beat them three times now.

If Pierre Poilievre becomes leader of the Conservative Party of Canada, Liberals need a plan to beat him during the next election campaign in three years. Its hard to plan for something that you dont believe will happen, which is why someone must make the case for why it will.

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To defeat Pierre Poilievre, Liberals will have to first understand his appeal - Toronto Star

Quebecs next provincial election is still more than five months away, but Liberal Leader Dominique Anglade is already on the campaign trail.

On Thursday, the official Opposition leader was in Trois-Rivires, Que., a city of 140,000 people halfway between Montreal and Quebec City, promising more political power for the regions a term often used in Quebec to describe rural and less-populated parts of the province.

The Liberals arent doing well in the regions, which are mostly francophone. Last general election, in 2018, the party won four seats outside the greaterMontrealarea, where its base of anglophone and immigrant voters resides. Since then, the Liberals lost two of those four seats in byelections.

READ MORE:Quebec Conservatives see rise in support among voters, poll suggests

With the spectre of a Quebec independence referendum off the table, the Liberal party is attempting to redefine itself, but its struggling to appeal to French-speaking voters without losing support among anglophones and immigrants.

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Theres been a change in Quebecs political landscape, Valerie-Anne Maheo, a political science professor at Universit Laval, said in a recent interview.

Weve seen a shift from partisan politics that were organized around sovereigntism and federalism, toward more so-called normal politics, on a left-right axis, where we see parties competing on social and economic policies.

The shift has been difficult for the federalist Liberals and the sovereigntist Parti Qubcois the two parties that dominated provincial politics for more than 40 years because the issue of Quebecs place in Canada was such a key part of their identities, Maheo said.

While the Liberals were traditionally seen as the party of the economy, the centre-right Coalition Avenir Qubec, which took power for the first time in 2018, now occupies that position in the minds of many Quebecers, she said.

READ MORE: Former Montreal mayoral candidate Balarama Holness forms new provincial party

Premier Franois Legault, a self-described nationalist leader who campaigned for a strong Quebec within Canada, remains atop the polls. A Leger poll released the same day Anglade was in Trois-Rivires put Legaults party at 44 per cent support. The Liberals, meanwhile, polled at 17 per cent, down one percentage point from Legers March survey and down around eight points from the 2018 election, when they elected 31 members in Quebecs 125-seat legislature.

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While the party remains in second place across the province, the Leger poll put them fourth in the Quebec City region and tied for third outside Quebecs two largest cities.

Philippe J. Fournier, creator of poll-aggregating website QC125, said the Liberals came second in many ridings across the province in 2018, but he said thats unlikely to happen in the October general election.

They do have a base of Liberal voters pretty much everywhere in the province, but in the polls that we have the local polls in SaguenayLac-St-Jean, Abitibi and the Eastern Townships we see that has completely evaporated, he said in a recent interview.

Among Quebecs francophone majority, the Liberals were tied for fourth at 11 per cent, according to Leger, behind left-wing party Qubec solidaire and the Conservative Party of Quebec, which has never elected a member to the legislature.

The Liberal brand, Anglade said in a recent interview, is all about valuing every single person. Its about the rights of every single individual ? It doesnt matter what language you speak; it doesnt matter which region theyre from.

Some Liberals, however, would like to see the party occupy some of the nationalist territory claimed by the CAQ, in order to win votes outside multiculturalMontreal.

Benoit Pelletier, a member of the Quebec legislature from 1998 to 2008 and a cabinet minister in the Liberal government of ex-premier Jean Charest, says the party is neglecting identity issues and needs to redefine its relationship with Quebecers particularly the francophone majority.

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Anglades Liberals, he said in a recent interview, should advocate more strongly for the protection and promotion of Quebecs language and culture. One example of the party being too soft on identity questions, he said, is its unclear stance on a bill to reform the provinces strict language laws.

That kind of ambiguity, that kind of ambivalence, is something that is negative and it plays against the party itself, Pelletier said.

The Liberals recently introduced an amendment to Bill 96 that would force anglophones in English junior colleges to take three core courses in French only to ask for it to be withdrawn following outcry from colleges and the partys English-speaking base.

That episode reflected the tension inherent in the Liberals identity struggles: it showed the difficulty they are having trying to widen their appeal to francophones without alienating their anglophone and immigrant base.

Meanwhile, there are signs of unrest in the provinces English-speaking community.

On Wednesday, failedMontreal mayoral candidate Balarama Holness said he is launching a new party to advocate for ethnic and linguistic minorities in the province a direct assault on the Liberals Montreal-area strongholds. Another group has stated they were considering launching a party that would advocate for the provinces anglophones.

Its unlikely those new parties will do well, Fournier said, but they could help the CAQ beat the Liberals in some close ridings.

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Anglade said shes not worried about new parties. The problem, she said, isnt her partys message its that people havent heard it.

Polls are polls, she said. Theyre giving you a picture of today, but we havent been able to communicate all those ideas; we havent been able to be as present as we want to be, and thats why Im excited about the (election) campaign.

2022 The Canadian Press

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With sovereignty off the table, Quebec Liberals struggling to connect with voters - Global News

Edward B. Harmon| Guest columnist

We all need to get out more and seek views from numerous sources, especially those with which we differ. We shouldn't believe the groupthink that what we and our friends believe reflects the will of the people. And we need to stop ascribing evil motives to those with whom we disagree.

I take part in a weekly dialogue with other retirees. They are bright, well-spoken, generally courteous and very liberal. I am a conservative and enjoy the dialogue. It has taught me a lot but, at times, the discussions get a little frothy, despite a moderator, and reflect the tendency to extrapolateones views to voters at large.

For example, we had a discussion about the Parental Rights in Education bill. I support the bill. My view may have induced tachycardia in some and was described by some liberals as transphobic, bigoted, mean-spirited, anti-gay and worse.

My critics believed that nobody supported the bill, other than, to be kind, the evil folks. However, recent polling byPublic Opinion Strategies showed strong support among Americans who actually read the bill, and did not rely on characterizations and the screeds of the pundit class.

The pollfound respondents supported the language of the bill by a 61% to 26% margin overall, independents by 58% to 26%Democrats by 55% to 29%, Joe Biden voters by 53% to 30%, parents by 67% to 24%, suburban voters by 60% to 30%. Among Americans who know an LGBTQ person, the margin was 61% to 28%.

Again, these are people who read the actual text of the bill. I doubt Santa Claus would get such a plurality from 5-year-olds on Christmas Eve. The lesson is clear. Although liberal views may, for now, dominate Gainesville, education and reaching out to other and different sources may change that.

More from Edward B. Harmon:

Blame high gas prices on Biden's efforts to destroy fossil fuel industry

A response to President Biden's question, 'What are Republicans for?'

Joe Bidens first year as president has been a failure

Gov. Ron DeSantis is reviled by most of my fellow dialogue participants. They would likely vote for Hunter Biden, Andrew Cuomo or Harvey Weinsteinif they ran against him. Fair enough. but inpolling against the leading Democratic candidate, Charlie Crist, DeSantis is up by 55% to 34%.

In Florida in 2020, Donald Trump tripled his margin against Biden as compared to his margin against Hillary Clinton.Outside the cocoon, it looks like Florida, despite the caterwauling, is undergoing a structural politicalshift to rock-solid, common-sense conservatism.

Why? Let me help to explain.Floridians know how DeSantis handled COVID. A recent COVID study by the National Bureau of Economic Research is noteworthy. Among the top 10 states for success in handling COVID based upon the economy, education and mortality Florida is sixth, the only large state.

Florida is in the middle on mortality, and given its demographics, that is stellar, but is third for the least education loss (DeSantis stood up for the kids) and 13th in economic performance. Floridians seem to like low taxes, law-and-order, high growth, low unemployment, standing up for the children, protecting the unborn, principled and courageous leadership, the empowering of parents, school choice and integrity.

Florida's Surgeon General Dr. Joseph Ladapo ends required school quarantines, allows parents to decide

Governor Ron DeSantis and Floridas new state Surgeon General Dr. Joseph Ladapo signed a new emergency rule on Wednesday aimed at keeping students in school.

Fox - 35 Orlando, Fox - 35 Orlando

This support does not make Floridians deplorables, but rather normal people who care about their futures and that of their children. Iknow liberals will not like these numbers and trends. However, until they get out of the tight circle of those who agree with them, reach out and change, the voters will continue to reject the ideologies that liberals surely believe have made Gainesville a model of great governance, courtesy among the elected, fiscal prudence and safety.

Voter ID laws are a great case study. Many wail at the existence of voter ID laws. Fair enough. But step aside from the comfort of a liberal-dominated discussion and consider that 36 states have voter ID laws on the books and six states have strict voter ID laws, which require that voters show a government-issued ID when they vote.

Despite all the frothing to the contrary, 68% of Americans favor strict voter ID laws, including 60% of independents and 50% of Democrats. By race, 70% of whites support them, 66% of Hispanics and 56% of African Americans. A truly amazing show of support for voter ID laws strict ones exists once we step outside the liberal echo chamber.

I hope Americans reach out to their political opponents, with respect, consider alternative sources for information, listen and learn.

Edward B. Harmon, a retired mergers and acquisitions attorney and law school professor, is a monthly contributor to the Sun. He lives in Gainesville.

Send a letter to the editor (up to 200 words) to letters@gainesville.com. Letters must include the writer's full name and city of residence. Additional guidelines for submitting letters and longer guest columns can be found at bit.ly/sunopinionguidelines.

Get a digital subscription to the Gainesville Sun. Includes must-see content on Gainesville.com and Gatorsports.com, breaking news and updates on all your devices, and access to the eEdition. Visit http://www.gainesville.com/subscribenow to sign up.

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Gainesville residents need to step outside the liberal echo chamber - Gainesville Sun

In our corner of Kent, less than three miles from the sea, HM Coastguard helicopters are not an unusual sight. Especially in the spring and summer, we see them regularly, the distinctive red and white pattern standing out strongly against the blue sky as they head out to sea on their errands of mercy.

As with ambulances, one cannot help wondering which particular emergency they are attending this time. Given our proximity to Dover, and to the long flat beaches stretching south to Dungeness Point, it is not unlikely that they are part of efforts to ensure the safety of small migrant boats crossing the Channel from the French coast.

Most people on the liberal left are functionally pro-open borders

As recently as 2018, the boats were not a significant problem. Official figures record that 299 people were detected arriving on small boats. But by 2021, that many people were arriving every four days on average, with an annual total of 28,526. Since the start of this year over 6,000 people have crossed the Channel in small boats, a fourfold increase on the same period last year, with the peak crossing months of spring and summer still to come, suggesting that the total for 2022 will far exceed that for 2021.

This fast-growing problem is the background to the Tories new plan to resettle those who enter the country illegally in Rwanda. The scheme has proved controversial, to say the least, earning the government a rebuke from the Archbishop of Canterbury in his Easter Sunday sermon.

I dont particularly want to wade into the debate over the Rwanda scheme itself. It is noteworthy, however, how hard it is to have a good faith discussion of the Channel crisis, and indeed of immigration more broadly.

One of the governments defensive lines, employed by both the Prime Minister and Priti Patel, has been to ask what their critics would do instead. This is an effective riposte, because it cuts to the heart of liberal Britains dishonest equivocation about the maintenance of borders. The fact is that most people on the liberal left are functionally pro-open borders.

The word functionally is important here, because most of the kind of people I am talking about, if asked, would deny that they oppose border controls entirely. But heres the rub: if you ask them to articulate a limiting principle to their immigration liberalism, they will find it very hard to do so. If you doubt this, think about the questions that are barely ever clearly addressed in detail by pro-immigration voices.

Numbers were bound to grow in the absence of preventive action

What should be the maximum number of people permitted to settle in the UK each year? Should we be concerned that it is increasingly difficult to deport those with no right to be here, and indeed foreign criminals (in the year to September 2021, the Home Office only managed 2,380 deportations, down from over 20,000 in 2004)? What is an acceptable level of exogenous population growth at a time when there is an acute and worsening housing crisis? Should we worry at all about the cultural and social effects of ongoing rapid demographic change? Are there particular kinds of immigrants that we need more than others?

Different people, reflecting carefully on the inevitable trade-offs of politics, will inevitably come up with different answers to these complex questions. And for immigration liberals, that is the problem. To accept the legitimacy of such reflection transforms the immigration debate into a normal political discussion, where costs and benefits are weighed and priorities considered, rather than an arena for haughty moralising.

Such moralising is easy and high-status in the circles in which educated Britons tend to move. All the same, it does not actually solve anything, especially when applied to the Channel crisis. Many immigration enthusiasts dont even accept that the boats constitute a crisis. In summer 2020, David Aaronovitch tweeted that a few thousand migrants coming here on little boats was not a big problem. Admittedly the totals were lower then; nevertheless, it did not require much talent for prognostication to see that numbers were bound to grow in the absence of preventive action.

Even as things stand, I have had people say to me that they arent really bothered by the crossings, that a few tens of thousands is a drop in the ocean for a total British population in excess of 65 million. This is perhaps a reasonable point of view to hold, although the costs of housing and feeding those individuals are not small but again, we do not hear what the upper limit might be. When should we start caring? Answer comes there none.

The costs of the Rwanda programme have been heavily criticised. Once more, however, there is an element of bad faith in operation here. The governments intention is clearly that removing illegal arrivals to Rwanda will have a sufficient deterrent effect that the numbers attempting the crossing will fall, and so the future costs will be significantly less.

It is also the case that the costs are not that high by comparison with the social, cultural and financial costs of accepting tens of thousands of young men and the Channel migrants are overwhelmingly male entering the country illegally, in perpetuity. Needless to say, this aspect is simply not engaged with in most negative commentary on the governments plan. Nor do critics seem to mind the injustice involved in letting asylum seekers who break the law skip the queue at the expense of those who follow the rules.

The tragedy of all this obfuscation and avoidance is that it makes it more difficult to find solutions. Even on immigration liberals own terms, they need to acknowledge the seriousness of the situation in the Channel before they can persuade people that they have a better solution than the government if indeed they do have one that amounts to more than clichs about more legal routes and more co-operation with the French. We do not have a government of immigration restrictionists or fiery nativists the number of non-EU visas granted is at an all-time high following Brexit and a debate that pretends we have is useless and pointless.

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Why won't liberals tell the truth about immigration? | Niall Gooch - The Critic

Morrison preselection candidates aim to reshape the Liberals Get Access Code.

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What are the driving factors behind the PM's preselection 'captain's picks', notably those with limited prior political interest?

How do you get to be a captain's pick in Scott Morrison's Liberal Party?

This week, the civil war simmering over the preselection of candidates became very public, sparked by the case of Katherine Deves, Morrison's pick for the seat of Warringah.

How Deves emerged from utter obscurity to national prominence -- and provoked a spectacular meltdown of the NSW Liberals -- is a mystery.How do you become a prime minister's pick for a one-time blue-ribbon Liberal seat when you weren't even a member of the party six months ago? We have a stab at solving that mystery later.

Choose what you pay and your level of coverage.

David Hardaker

Investigations Editor @d_hardaker

David has an extensive career as a journalist and broadcaster, primarily at the ABC where he worked on flagship programs such as Four Corners, 7.30, Foreign Correspondent, AM and PM. He spent eight years reporting in the Middle East and can speak Arabic.

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Morrison preselection candidates aim to reshape the Liberals - Crikey