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An election approaches for the leader of a Conservative government in the first term of a majority. Hes a divisive figure, but benefits from a divided opposition. The NDP leader enters the race as Opposition leader following a massive growth in seats in the last election. The Liberals, decimated in the last election, enter this one with a new leader themselves and the longest road ahead to victory.

If that sounds like a Star Wars opening crawl version of Ontarios upcoming election, its not. It was a description of the political landscape ahead of the 2015 federal election. Apologies for the spoiler, but in that election the Liberal party came back from a third-place start to win a majority government.

For Steven Del Duca and the Ontario Liberals in 2022, there are lessons to be learned from the 2015 federal campaign if they want to return to a prominent place in Queens Park following this years provincial election.

For months, Ontario polls have been relatively consistent with Premier Doug Ford and the governing Progressive Conservative party showing a solid lead over the Ontario Liberals and the NDP. The two opposition parties have traded places for second and third but have generally remained in a statistical tie with one another. Thomas Mulcair and Justin Trudeau found their parties in similar standing heading into the 2015 election, jockeying for positioning as the one to beat Stephen Harper.

The first lesson Del Ducas Liberals should remember is that campaigns matter. In the initial week of the 2015 campaign, it was the NDP slightly ahead in most polls. Come election day, the Liberals beat the NDP by nearly 20 per cent in the popular vote. If Ontario Liberals demonstrate they are the only alternative to a Ford government, the tie with the NDP wont last the length of the writ.

In 2015, Trudeaus Liberals kept their sights on the party they were trying to defeat, not the party they were trying to beat for second. Other than one devastating moment on the debate stage, Trudeau rarely came after Mulcair, keeping his focus on Harpers record instead.

Andrea Horwath has lost three elections in her 13 years as leader of the Ontario NDP, including in 2018 when conditions were ideal for her to win. If the Liberals want to win, Del Duca should keep his focus on the only other leader who might win this election Ford.

Coming into the election in third place in 2015 may have given the Liberals more leeway to make bold promises. Their platform included the Canada child benefit, the Canada Infrastructure Bank, legalizing marijuana, electoral reform and a commitment to raise taxes on the wealthiest Canadians. The Liberals may not have reached all those goals yet, but how many parts of the NDP platform in 2015 does anyone remember?

Del Duca has made clear promises that are tangible for the average voter with the partys commitment to economic dignity. His plan includes measures such as an increased regional minimum wage, a proposal to explore a four-day work week, 10 paid sick days, portable health benefits, and a ban on underpaid gig and contract work. By including small businesses in his plan with a cap on credit card and delivery fees and promising tax relief for small businesses hit hard by the pandemic, the Ontario Liberals show they understand a real recovery needs to lift everyone up.

In political circles, May 4 is thought to be the likely date for Ontarios election campaign to officially begin. That is less than a month away. Like their federal counterparts in 2015, the Ontario Liberals have a lot of ground to cover if they hope to have a similar come-from-behind victory.

It is a long road to be sure but looking back to 2015, it seems that Trudeau left Del Duca a map.

Originally posted here:
The Ontario Liberals should look to the 2015 federal campaign to find a path forward in 2022 - Toronto Star

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Anglophones keep adapting and Quebec keeps moving the goalposts

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MONTREAL Retired Senator and former journalist Joan Fraser has for decades been one of the most insightful observers of Quebec politics. So, when Fraser says that Quebecs English-speaking population is angry like never before, one must take the situation seriously. We feel abandoned, she told me this week. For 50 years, we have been told that we have to adapt to the changes in Quebec society. But we get the feeling that its never enough, that each time we adapt, the goal posts are moved. This perception is correct.

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Quebec Anglos have several reasons to be angry: the attempt by the Coalition Avenir Qubec (CAQ) government to abolish English school boards; bill 21 banning the wearing of religious signs; bill 96 which, amongst other things, freezes the growth of English colleges; and the withdrawal of a promised subsidy for a new Dawson College pavilion. Directly or indirectly, each one of those measures is an attack against their fundamental rights. Yet, Anglo representatives were not consulted and since then, have been screaming in the desert. No one is listening. In fact, no one seems to care.

Even the provincial Liberal Party, once the stalwart defender of minority rights in Quebec, appears indifferent. When bill 96 was tabled in May 2021, the Liberals expressed a constructive, positive attitude even though the bill included the wide-ranging use of the notwithstanding clause, meaning that Quebecers intent on challenging the law could not do so based on the Canadian Charter of Rights and Freedoms or Quebecs Charter of Human Rights and Freedoms.

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For close to a year, the Liberal leader, Dominique Anglade, refused to say whether her party would vote for or against the bill at third reading. Last February, she finally said that the Liberals would vote against unless changes were made. Their No is a quiet one, as if they dont want the nationalists to notice, deplores Marlene Jennings, chair of the Quebec Community Groups Network and former federal MP. They should be proud of saying No, theyre supposed to be the party that defends minority rights.

Since becoming leader two years ago, Anglade and her team have been obsessed with increasing her partys among the French-speaking majority, of which only 11 per cent tell pollsters they would vote for the Liberal if an election were held today. Under Anglades leadership, the party has taken a nationalist turn, which has failed to attract more French votes while upsetting their traditional clientele of Anglophones and visible minorities.

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This nationalist turn reached new heights when a Liberal member of the provincial parliament proposed an amendment to bill 96 that would require students in English colleges to take three of their regular courses in French, an amendment that the CAQ immediately endorsed. The Liberals have made the bill worse, deplores Colin Standish, an Eastern Township articling student.

Standish heads a group called the Task Force on Linguistic Policy. The group is planning to form a new provincial party that would stand up not only for Anglo rights, but for the fundamental rights of all Quebecers, says Standish. We would not be the party of the West Island of Montreal.

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Not all Anglophones welcome this strategy. Joan Fraser, for one, recalls that Weve been down that road before. In 1989, following then Liberal premier Robert Bourassas use of the notwithstanding clause to adopt a new language law, a group of angry Anglo-Quebecers launched the Equality Party. The new party succeeded in electing four members of the National Assembly in the 1989 elections, but that did not prevent Bourassas government from being re-elected, and the Equality Party quickly sank into internal bickering and insignificance.

Even if the formation of a new party might not be advantageous, the discussion about a new party might be profitable, Fraser concedes. Who knows, maybe the provincial Liberals will begin to notice that anglophone voters should not be taken for granted?

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However, for Anglade, it is probably too late: the trust is broken. Anglo voters may still vote Liberal in the end (the next election will be held Oct. 3), but a significant number will probably vote for this new party, if it sees the light of day. The rest will simply stay at home.

The Anglo anger could have deeper consequences than its impact on partisan politics in the province. At worse, Fraser warns, it could lead to another exodus, especially of young Anglophones. From 1970 to 1980, tens of thousands of English-speaking Quebecers left the province in the wake of the October Crisis and the election of the separatist Parti Qubcois in 1976. That brain drain had enormous economic consequences for Qubec.

Then, it was mostly unilingual Anglos who were leaving because they could not or would not adapt to the provinces new French reality. Today, most of the young Anglos who are thinking of leaving are bilingual. Their departure would be another economic and cultural blow to Quebec. But maybe thats exactly what the nationalists want: that Quebec become a totally French, uniform society. How sad

Andr Pratte is a Principal at Navigator ltd. He is also involved in Jean Charests leadership campaign for the federal Conservative party.

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Andr Pratte: In Quebec, Anglo anger boils, as even the Liberals take a nationalist turn - National Post

The United Australia Party spent heavily on advertising before the election was called on Sunday, plunging $31.3 million into ads between August 1 and February 18 close to the $31.6 million it spent in 2019.

Last Thursday, Mr Palmer estimated he would spend $70 million on the UAPs advertising blitz, telling the National Press Club he expected to spend about $40 million between now and the election.

The spending will easily outstrip any investment by the Labor or Liberal Party, which spent about $10 million each on advertising during the 2019 federal election.

Chris Walton, managing director of independent media agency Nunn Media, which works with clients to plan and buy advertising space, said Mr Palmers spending raised questions about a distortion of the democratic process.

Is there a need to look at political funding of campaigns when there are some people out there with literally bottomless pockets of cash? he asked.

Mr Walton said the UAPs spend during the 2019 federal election was wildly ineffective, as it gave the Coalition an indirect benefit and left the Labor Party a loser.

Labors own internal review into why it lost the 2019 election found the ad campaign was not informed by a clear strategy, and most of Clive Palmers spending crowded out Labors advertising in broadcast, print and digital media.

According to data from Pathmatics which assesses ad spend across websites and social media platforms the UAP has spent an estimated $8.9 million on digital ads over the past 12 months. There were drastic spikes in October and at the start of the year, with the main investment on desktop video ads through Googles YouTube.

In the past 90 days, the UAP has spent $297,000 on ads across Facebook and Instagram, according to figures from Metas ad library, with $117,000 of that invested in the past 30 days and $44,700 in the past week.

The UAP has also spent more than $9 million on 141 ads across Google since November, with the most on YouTube. Googles transparency report shows some cost more than $100,000 each.

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Clive Palmer drowns out Labor and Liberals with advertising spending - The Australian Financial Review

In recent days, they have been multiple attacks against Hindus while they were celebrating their festivals. In Karauli, a Hindu procession on the occasion of Hindu New Year was attacked with stones on April 2. Violence and arson followed. Rajasthan police said in its presser that the Hindus had played provocative songs during the procession and that led to the violence because the area was Muslim-dominated.

As per reports, the PFI had warned the local authorities that Hindus taking out a procession in Muslim dominated areas may lead to violence.

On the occasion of Ram Navami, the attacks on Hindus followed, with a multi-fold intensity. Across several states, Hindu processions on Ram Navami have been attacked by Muslim mobs, for the crime of passing through the so-called Muslim areas.

A Ram Navami procession organised by VHP was attacked with stones when it was near Fazir Bazar at PM Basti on GT Road in Shibpur, Howrah.

Another procession has been attacked in Gujarats Himmatnagar. Similar cases of attacks on Hindu processions have been reported from Jharkhands Lohardaga, MPs Khargone, and Karnatakas Mulbagal.

However, apparently, the fault lies with the Hindus, because how dare they take out a procession and play songs for their festivals? For Indias secular liberals, Hindus should be always accommodating, docile, subversive and never dare to exist on the premises of what they deem as Muslim areas, or any violence that happens will be the responsibility of the Hindus.

NDTVs Srinivasan Jain has held Hindus responsible for the attack on them because it was their fault to pass through a Muslim area.

Jain is relentless, he has decided that incidents of violence are only happening because Modi is ruling at the centre and Hindu leaders are giving statements against the existing status quo, for example, how dare a Hindu leader question the Halal economy that benefits only Muslims and discriminates against Hindus? As per Srinivasan Jain, questioning the existing practises of discrimination is akin to stoking violence, and violence happens because Modi is in power. Jain has decided to forget the dozens of riots, bomb blasts, and massacres that have happened in this country when Modi was not in power.

It is not Jain alone. There is a large section of so-called secular liberals who believe in this Muslim area theory. As per them, a procession passing through a Muslim area is a provocation that triggers the violence. In their justification, they completely forget that it is the Muslim mob that pelts stones. And what exactly is a Muslim area? This is the question that many are asking Srinivasan Jain.

Here is a Congress leader.

And what exactly is a Muslim area? This is the question that many are asking Srinivasan Jain and others. Are there specific areas that Hindus are not allowed to enter? Are these similar areas where stones were pelted on healthcare workers when they went to trace contacts of Covid infected people?

In the so-called secular, democratic India, self-proclaimed Liberals are propagating the idea of Muslim ghettos, areas where non-Muslims are not allowed to enter, live, or pass through. A similar kind of justification was given by Barkha Dutt in her now-famous video where she was seen blaming the Kashmiri Pandits for their own genocide and exodus because apparently, they had been taking up most of the jobs.

Muslim areas is why the country was partitioned into pieces. Muslim areas is why Raliv, Galiv, Tsaliv slogans were raised in Kashmir, Muslim areas are why Bihari vendors were killed in Srinagar, Muslim areas are the reason millions of Bengali Hindus were killed and raped in East Bengal. How long is this country going to keep paying for Muslim areas where the secular laws of the country do not apply?

Who decides what will be a Muslim area? Are there any defined rules that non-Muslims are not allowed to enter Muslim areas? In a country that suffered through the brutality of partition on religious grounds, the idea of religious lawless ghettos is being actively promoted by the so-called elites.

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Attack on Hindus is their own fault, they should not exist in Muslim areas: This is how Liberals justify violence - OpIndia

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One member of the state executive, who is prohibited from speaking publicly under party rules, said the membership figures were particularly concerning because they did not represent those who had allowed their membership to lapse, but had wanted to leave the party.

We have never seen anything like this; its an exodus, the source said. There is higher morale in the Russian army than Morrisons home division. The damage Hawke and Morrison have deliberately caused to the Liberal Party will long outlast Morrisons prime ministership.

Senior Liberals, including the partys NSW president, Philip Ruddock, have conceded delays to preselections could make victory harder for the federal Coalition.

Ruddock, who has flagged that the NSW branchs constitution would be reviewed after the election because of the factional battle, has acknowledged the impact of the preselection delays on the election fight.

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One of electorates that had a candidate imposed on it was the seat of Hughes. Lawyer Jenny Ware was endorsed as the candidate after preselections were cancelled, despite being described by the party as not suitable to run.

Local branches in Hughes were infuriated by the move. The Sutherland branch sent a searing letter to state executive members after the preselections were abandoned.

State executive members must take time to reflect on what has occurred. The party is removing the democratic right of loyal members rather than prosecuting the case against the Labor Party, the Greens and the Climate 200 independents, all of whom have policies that will damage Australias prosperity and security, the letter, obtained by the Herald, says.

The letter pointedly said branch members believed the three candidates who had nominated for preselection were suitable. This was a reference to a motion that was put to the executive that said: Unfortunately, none of the persons who nominated are suitable or provide the division with its best chance of winning the election.

Read more:
Record number of NSW Liberal members quit amid war over preselections - Sydney Morning Herald