Mediaboss Marketing

Western Australia has long been a fortress for the Liberal Party in federal elections.

The last time Labor won more WA federal seats than the Liberals was in 1990, when Bob Hawke won his fourth election with heavy hitters in his cabinet like Kim Beazley, John Dawkins and Peter Walsh.

If federal Labor is to topple this decades-long dominance and potentially influence a tight election, it needs to pick up three seats the most likely being the Perth metropolitan electorates of Hasluck, Pearce and Swan.

Labor, which holdsfive out of the 15 WA seats, has also been helped by the abolition of the Liberal-held seat of Stirling in the redistribution last year.

Its chances are best in Pearce, with a margin of 5.2 per cent, and Swan, with a 3.2 per cent margin, which also have both of their sitting members retiring.

The boundaries of Pearce, held by former Attorney General Christian Porter, were dramatically redrawn in the electoral redistribution and now largely overlap with the City of Wanneroo.

So it's probably no surprise that the two main candidates are connected with thecouncil;its mayor Tracey Roberts is contesting the seat for Labor against fellow councillor Linda Aitken.

Notre Dame University political analyst Martin Drum believes threekey factors the recent controversies surrounding Mr Porter, the changed composition of the electorate and Ms Roberts' high profile in the area play more in Labor's favour.

"It would give them an added chance, certainly beyond what they would normally have in that seat," he said.

Swan is the Liberals' most marginal seat, where the two candidates,chemical engineer Zaneta Mascarenhas for Labor and media commentator Kristy McSweeney for the Liberals,are both trying to win their first election.

Dr Drum also thinks the retirement of long-time Swan MP Steve Irons benefits Labor in this seat, because his popularity boosted the Liberals' margin by around 2 per cent.

Removing this margin makes Swan a more even contest.

"That's a 50-50 line ball before you consider any swing Labor might get against the Liberals," he said.

Winning Hasluck is a tougher job, with its sitting member, Minister for Indigenous Australians Ken Wyatt,defending it against Labor challenger and former Woodside manager Tania Lawrence.

"If Labor gets a decent swing, they should get the other two seats," Dr Drum said.

"But if they do really well, they'll win a third, so this would be the cherry on top, I guess, for Labor if they were to win this seat."

But Labor will also have to defend its most marginal seat of Cowan, held by Anne Aly on a slim margin of0.9 per cent.

It has also changed with the electoral redistribution, absorbing a chunk of the abolished seat of Stirling.

So Dr Aly's challenger,Stirling MP Vince Connolly,already has some local recognition in the north metropolitan seat.

Another fascinating seat aside from the traditional Labor-Liberal tussle will be Curtin, where high-profile independent candidate and corporate manager Kate Chaney is challenging Liberal member Celia Hammond.

Ms Chaney is being backed by the Climate 200 campaign, which is supporting some high-profile, pro-climate and pro-gender equality candidates across Australia, including Allegra Spender in Wentworth and Rebekha Sharkie in Mayo.

Dr Drum says the geographically bigger seats in Perth, compared to more densely populated inner-city electorates in other cities, could make it harder for independents to get traction.

"Your work is cut out trying to raise your visibility across the electorate," he said.

"So it doesn't mean she can't win, it just means her challenge is certainly tougher than some of the comparable seats in Sydney and Melbourne."

While there's much speculation about the impact of WA Premier Mark McGowan's sky-high popularity on the federal Labor vote, Dr Drumbelieves there's plenty of evidence to show that Western Australians vote differently in state and federal elections.

For example, Mr McGowan seized power after the landslide election of 2017, yet Labor failed to win any new seats in the 2019 federal poll.

But the electoral drubbing of the WA Liberals at last year's state election is really hurting their federal campaigning, from their fundraising ability to the nuts-and-bolts issue of staffing an election campaign.

Theyhave also lost or are losing some of their highest-profile local representatives, including former Finance Minister Mathias Cormann and Mr Porter.

Another new potential factor in the campaign is the 86,000 young Western Australians who will be able to vote in a federal election for the first time this year and who have come-of-age during the past nine years of a federal Liberal government.

Australian National University political researcher Intifar Chowdhury saidthe main issues that would influence the vote of these and other young voters includepolitical inaction on climate change, housing affordability and the treatment of women in the workforce.

Ms Chowdhury says her research shows that young voters, aged between 18 and 27, were just as engaged with traditional electoral processes, like political parties and elections, as older generations.

But the key influence on their voting behaviour were the issues which were front of mind on election day, a reason why she thinks the one-off cost-of-living payment announced in the recent federal budget will play well for the Liberals.

Australian Electoral Commission data from December show that one in five voters in Pearce and Swan is aged between 18 and 29, with 18 per cent of Cowan and Hasluck electors in this demographic.

Their vote is an untested variable in an election where WA, the last state to close the polls on election day, could determine who gets their hands on the key to the Lodge.

Continued here:
Federal election 2022: Why the Liberal Party could lose its dominance in WA - ABC News

For example, a writer who seemed overly hopeful about the liberal-revival scenario in the first days of the war, Francis Fukuyama, has now written a searching essay for Foreign Affairs on why liberalism needs the nation arguing that the heroic resistance of the Ukrainians should teach liberals a lesson about the virtues of national identity.

With their bravery, he writes, the Ukrainians have made clear that citizens are willing to die for liberal ideals, but only when those ideals are embedded in a country they can call their own. The war has thus been a partial rebuke to the fantasy of a pure cosmopolitanism, of a liberalism that transcends borders, languages and specific histories. And its offered a case study in how the nation-state, its loves and loyalties, can unite a disparate population around a common cause in a way that no supranational institution has ever been able to achieve.

The challenge, though, is that the sense of national purpose Fukuyama is praising in Ukraine conspicuously depends on an external enemy, a wolf at the door, and you cannot simply will such an enemy into being. (Nor should you wish to!) Whereas most of the peacetime sources of national solidarity he cites, from food and sports to literary traditions, are somewhat thinner things. And one of the potentially thicker forces, a sense of religious unity within a liberal order, Fukuyama rules out: In a pluralist society, the idea of restoring a shared moral tradition defined by religious belief is a nonstarter, leading only to sectarianism and violence if applied.

But that might be too simplistic. Certainly you cannot impose strict religious uniformity upon a pluralist democracy. But the liberal order in America, at least, long relied for solidarity and purpose on a softer religious consensus, a flexible religious center, based on Protestant Christianity and then expanding to a more ecumenical but still biblically rooted vision. From the 19th century through the civil rights era, this shared worldview supplied not just a generic unity but a constant moral touchstone for would-be reformers, a metaphysical horizon for the entire American project.

Here Fukuyamas essay might be usefully supplemented by my colleague Ezra Kleins recent meditation on how Western liberalism appears when seen through the eyes of its enemies meaning not just Putinism, with its spurious Christian justifications for aggressive war, but certain radical-right philosophers who have rejected liberalism and Christianity together, seeing the latter as the original source of liberalisms egalitarianism, its attention to the poor and marginalized, and its restless quest for universal dignity (all of which they reject and despise).

See original here:
Opinion | Why Liberalism Needs Nationalism and Religion - The New York Times

Breadcrumb Trail Links

The government could be forced to put the country on red alert if the global economy continues to deteriorate and it presses ahead with its plans to decimate the energy industry

Publishing date:

In a 1992 episode of Star Trek: The Next Generation, the Enterprise finds Scotty from the original series suspended in a transporter buffer and brings him back to life after 75 years. While interacting with the crew, the ships chief engineer, Geordi La Forge, informs Scotty that he told the captain his current task would take an hour and that it was an accurate estimate. You didnt tell him how long it would really take, did ya? asks Scotty. Oh, laddie, youve got a lot to learn if you want people to think of you as a miracle worker.

This advertisement has not loaded yet, but your article continues below.

In many ways, this is the approach the Liberals have taken to budgeting throughout the pandemic: predict a high deficit in the fall and then bill themselves as miracle workers when it comes in slightly lower. The 2020 fall economic statement, for example, estimated the deficit would hit $381.6 billion, but it turned out to be only $327.7 billion. Likewise, the 2021 fiscal update pegged the 2021-22 deficit at $144.5 billion, but last Thursdays budget had it coming in at $113.8 billion.

The big question this time around is whether the Liberals science fiction-like predictions will continue to work out in their favour. Though the budget forecasts that the deficit and debt-to-GDP ratio will steadily decline over the next four years, an alternate scenario detailed in the document admits that the economic outlook is clouded by a number of key uncertainties.

This advertisement has not loaded yet, but your article continues below.

Should we see a long, drawn-out war in Ukraine which is looking increasingly likely by the day we could see higher-than-expected commodity prices, inflation and interest rates, coupled with reduced consumption and economic output. This would significantly throw off future budgets, causing the deficit to be over 150 per cent higher than expected by 2026-27.

But in the coming year, the countrys fiscal situation would actually improve, with the deficit falling to $39.5 billion, instead of an expected $52.8 billion, and the debt-to-GDP ratio dropping 2.5 percentage points below what was initially forecast.

This would come about thanks to higher-than-expected commodity prices that would provide the federal government with additional revenues. Such an eventuality would allow Trudeau to play the miracle worker card one more time, but the gains would be short lived. Eventually, global energy prices will stabilize, and Canada will find itself in a situation in which energy-related investment and exports remain relatively muted, due to uncertainty about longer-term demand for fossil fuels.

This advertisement has not loaded yet, but your article continues below.

This will surely be exacerbated by the fact that the Trudeau government has made punishing the energy sector a top priority. Budget 2022 reiterates the governments recently laid out plans to put a cap on oil and gas emissions and force the industry to reduce its CO2 output by a whopping 42 per cent below 2019 levels.

The budget does include a new carbon capture and storage (CCS) tax credit, which is expected to cost the feds $35 million this year, increasing to $1.5 billion by 2026. But it will not be available to companies looking to use carbon to extract otherwise unrecoverable oil from existing wells, in a process known as enhanced oil recovery, which could help reduce emissions while encouraging economic growth.

This advertisement has not loaded yet, but your article continues below.

The money made available for CCS will also be dwarfed by the $8.2 billion the government expects to bring in from its pollution pricing framework, which includes the gas tax and taxes from jurisdictions where the federal government collects carbon tax revenues. That doesnt include all the carbon taxes the industry will pay to provincial governments, most of which now have their own carbon tax, cap-and-trade scheme or output-based pricing system that allows them to bypass the federal backstop.

To further turn the screws on the industry, the Liberals will be phasing out minimally taxed flow-through shares, which are used to help finance exploration. Its a measure that is only expected to bring in $9 million over the next five years but will have a significant impact on smaller players. It is yet another example of the federal government imposing additional costs on the industry simply because it doesnt like fossil fuels.

This advertisement has not loaded yet, but your article continues below.

Instead, the Liberals are betting big on the green transition fuelling the economy of tomorrow. Measures include the Canada Growth Fund, which the government hopes will attract $3 of private capital for every $1 of public money put into it. The Canada Infrastructure Bank will also be tasked with finding private investment in clean energy and other emission-reduction technologies, despite having little success in its previous efforts to entice investors. And, of course, there will be significant new spending on energy-efficient home retrofits, green-energy infrastructure, natural decarbonization measures and electric vehicle chargers.

The environmentalist left has long tried to sell us on the idea that transitioning to a less carbon-intensive future will boost economic output. As weve seen over the past two decades, however, most green technologies are not economically viable and are only feasible through massive government subsidies and tax increases designed to make once-cheap fossil fuels more expensive. Far from providing jobs and driving growth, the green transition will continue to be a net drain on society and will ensure the economic vitality of the country will be intimately tied to the governments continued largesse.

This advertisement has not loaded yet, but your article continues below.

Despite huge government investments in green technologies throughout the western world, its clear that sustainable energy will not provide the power needed to fully displace fossil fuels any time soon not unless we can secure a supply of dilithium crystals and perfect matter-antimatter reactors, that is. Instead of ensuring the resource industry can continue to drive the economy and provide much-needed government revenue during these turbulent economic times, the Liberals will make Canadas investment climate even less hospitable, driving energy companies away at warp speed.

National Postjkline@postmedia.comTwitter.com/accessd

This advertisement has not loaded yet, but your article continues below.

This advertisement has not loaded yet, but your article continues below.

Sign up to receive the daily top stories from the National Post, a division of Postmedia Network Inc.

A welcome email is on its way. If you don't see it, please check your junk folder.

The next issue of NP Posted will soon be in your inbox.

We encountered an issue signing you up. Please try again

Postmedia is committed to maintaining a lively but civil forum for discussion and encourage all readers to share their views on our articles. Comments may take up to an hour for moderation before appearing on the site. We ask you to keep your comments relevant and respectful. We have enabled email notificationsyou will now receive an email if you receive a reply to your comment, there is an update to a comment thread you follow or if a user you follow comments. Visit our Community Guidelines for more information and details on how to adjust your email settings.

See more here:
Jesse Kline: Liberals' sci-fi budgeting buttressed by the energy industry they have pledged to destroy - National Post

NEWYou can now listen to Fox News articles!

MSNBC host Al Sharpton on Monday slammed the approach by Washington, D.C. "elites" and "limousine liberals" in reacting to the rising crime gripping cities across the U.S., declaring those that ignored the problem "don't live in the real world."

During an appearance on "Morning Joe," the left-wing host argued that Democrats were losing support from minorities because they didn't understand what it was like to live a life like those dealing with crime, rising inflation and record high gas prices.

Al Sharpton appears alongside Joe Scarborough on the set of MSNBC's "Morning Joe" on April 11, 2022 to discuss the midterm elections. (Screenshot/MSNBC) (Screenshot/MSNBC)

CALIFORNIANS FED UP WITH BOTH POLITICAL PARTIES AS CRIME CRISIS SPIRALS IN GOLDEN STATE

The segment began as a panel discussion with hosts Mika Brzezinski and Joe Scarborough alongside Sharpton and a number of other political commentators discussing the issues facing Democrats as they prepared for the midterm elections in November.

The panel noted the difficulties facing the party as its unpopularity among voters stemming from its handling of the economy remained a major concern.

Scarborough blasted liberal politicians in Washington over what he described as "a blind spot" on where voters actually stood on the political spectrum and warned that they were repeating the same mistakes of the past by pushing far-left policies when more moderate ones proved to win out.

"Let me say it slowly for my Democratic friends in Washington, D.C.: Black voters are more conservative than you are, White woke leaders in Washington, D.C. Hispanic voters are more conservative than you are, White woke leaders in Washington, D.C., Asian-American voters are more conservative than you are Theyre more conservative on crime, theyre more conservative on education, theyre more conservative on these woke issues," he said.

FILE - New York City Mayor Eric Adams speaks during the New York State Democratic Convention in New York, Thursday, Feb. 17, 2022. (AP Photo/Seth Wenig, File) (AP Photo/Seth Wenig, File)

SACRAMENTO SHERIFF: DOWNTOWN SHOOTING THAT KILLED SIX IS RESULT OF TREATING CRIMINALS LIKE VICTIMS

Scarborough cited wins by a "moderate" Joe Biden in the 2020 Democratic primaries, as well as Eric Adams in the 2021 New York City mayoral election to reinforce his point that voters were not as liberal as many progressive Democrats would like.

Sharpton jumped in, agreeing with Scarborough and blasting the disconnect between the liberal "elites" across the country and minority voters feeling the brunt of the issues facing the country.

"Theyre losing people of color because they really dont get the people of colors life. If you are living in a city, in a neighbor, that is inundated with crime, and you act like thats not an issue you've already lost me. That is an issue," Sharpton said. "You cannot ignore when 12-year-old kids who is somebodys niece and neighbor is killed, and you act like that's a nonissue because you're too elitist to live on the ground."

COLUMBUS, OHIO, UNITED STATES - 2021/08/01: Mothers of Murdered Columbus Children stand at the intersection of High Street and Broad Street while holding pictures of their deceased children in reaction to rising violence plaguing the city. (Photo by Stephen Zenner/SOPA Images/LightRocket via Getty Images) (Stephen Zenner/SOPA Images/LightRocket via Getty Images)

CLICK HERE TO GET THE FOX NEWS APP

"We dont want to be manipulated by right-wing elitist billionaires or by left-wing guys that dont understand our life on the ground that is living in fear of crime, that is living as a result of inflation that is killing us in many parts of the country. We need gas to go to work," he said.

"These beltway elitists, these limousine liberals here in New York, dont live in the real world and Blacks have to, and browns have to deal with the real world every day, and we dont sit in crowded subways reading left-wing or right-wing propaganda," he added.

Read the rest here:
Al Sharpton goes off on 'limousine liberals,' DC 'elites' ignoring crime: They 'don't live in the real world' - Fox News

Holmes a Court opposed the national energy guarantee devised by Malcolm Turnbull and his government in 2018 when some others reluctantly accepted it as better than nothing, so he sees no point in helping moderate Liberals support a Coalition government where they must work alongside conservative Liberals and Nationals who do not want to act on climate change at all.

Holmes a Court would rather remove the moderates altogether. And he is not funding a challenger to Dutton at all.

The impact could reshape the Liberal Party. If the Climate 200 candidates succeed in large numbers, the effect will not just be to drive Morrison and his government out of power. It will be to sweep moderate Liberals out of parliament while leaving conservatives untouched. The Liberal party room would shift to the right.

The main challengers and their targets are: Nicolette Boele against Paul Fletcher in Bradfield, Zoe Daniel against Tim Wilson in Goldstein, Claire Ferres Miles against Aaron Violi in Casey, Monique Ryan against Josh Frydenberg in Kooyong, Sophie Scamps against Jason Falinski in Mackellar, Allegra Spender against Dave Sharma in Wentworth and Kylea Tink against Trent Zimmerman in North Sydney.

The principal targets are all Liberals who support action on climate change and support marriage equality, the social issue that is the ultimate test for moderates against conservatives. The campaign against Frydenberg is especially interesting because the Treasurer is one of the contenders to lead the Liberals if they lose. Taking him out pushes the party towards Dutton.

Loading

There are variations to the Climate 200 game plan where it backs challengers to the Nationals. Caz Heise is taking on Pat Conaghan from the Nationals in Cowper on the NSW North Coast. Hanabeth Luke is running against Kevin Hogan in Page, the seat next door. Kate Hook is trying to unseat Andrew Gee in Calare. So far, however, Climate 200 is leaving Barnaby Joyce alone in his seat of New England.

The other exceptions are the contests gaining less attention where the independents are taking on Liberal women. In a big test in Western Australia, Kate Chaney is challenging Celia Hammond, the sitting MP in Curtin. Another independent, Despi OConnor, is running against Zoe McKenzie, the new Liberal candidate for Flinders where Hunt is departing after 21 years representing the seat on the Mornington Peninsula.

Climate 200 is not the only option for an aspiring independent. In the Victorian seat of Nicholls, centred around Shepparton, local business owner Rob Priestly is trying to defeat Sam Birrell from the Nationals without taking money from Climate 200 because he wants to run a local campaign. The resignation of the sitting MP, Damian Drum, has thrown open the contest.

A bigger contrast is in Hughes in southern Sydney, where Craig Kelly holds the seat for the United Australia Party after defecting from the Liberals last year.

Loading

One independent, Georgia Steele, has Climate 200 behind her but the other, Linda Seymour, does not. Seymour wants action on climate change but is unimpressed with the way Climate 200 runs its campaigns. The government is fielding Jenny Ware, who was endorsed with backing from the moderate wing of the Liberals.

A triumph for one of these independents would match the pattern of the recent past. A triumph for the group would mess with the old political model. How many will win? Which ones? The mediocre result for GetUp at the last election showed that money and volunteers were not enough. One of the big questions in the 2022 campaign will be whether the independents can succeed with their new model. If it works, it will be with us for years to come.

Jacqueline Maley cuts through the noise of the federal election campaign with news, views and expert analysis. Sign up to our Australia Votes 2022 newsletter here.

Read this article:
Independents take on Liberals and the old political model - Sydney Morning Herald