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The 13 ridings that deprived the Liberals of winning a majority government in the last federal election are still too close to call and will be key battlegrounds in determining the outcome of the next election, say pollsters.

What stands out from the list is that the Liberals are still short of a majority, said Nik Nanos, chief data scientist for Nanos Research, in an interview with The Hill Times. And the ridings that were toss-ups in the last federal election for the Liberals, which they barely lost, most of them remain very, very tight races.

The 13 closest losses for the Liberals include seven in Ontario, three in Quebec and one each in Manitoba, British Columbia and Nova Scotia. Of these, the Conservatives won nine; the Bloc won three and the NDP one seat.

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and his security detail, pictured March 12, 2021, leaving the West Block for a media availability at the Sir John A. Macdonald building in Ottawa. The Hill Times photograph by Andrew Meade

If the Liberals had won 22,590 more votes in these 13 ridings depending on the margins in each, they could have won a majority. In the 338-member House, the winning party needs at least 170 seats to form a majority government.

In 2019, Prime Minister Justin Trudeaus (Papineau, Que.) Liberals lost the popular vote to then Andrew Scheers (Regina-QuAppelle, Sask.) Conservatives, but still won more seats than their chief rivals.

Of the 18.1-million votes cast, according to Elections Canada, the Conservatives won 6,239,227 votes, but ended up with only 121 seats, while the Liberals won 6,018,728 votes and still carried 157 seats. The NDP won 2,903,722 votes garnering 39 seats; the Green Party won 1,189,607 votes that translated into three seats. The Bloc Qubcois, which fields candidates only in Quebec, won 1,387,030 votes and carried 32 seats.

If they [Liberals] had another, 22,000 to 23,000 votes in the right ridings in the right place [in the 13 ridings], they could have converted [their minority] into a majority in the House of Commons, even if they had lost the popular support federally on a national basis, said Mr. Nanos.

The lowest margin by which the Liberal lost one of the 13 ridings was 1.5 per cent or by 898 votes in the riding of Shefford, Que., while the highest margin was 5.2 per cent, or 2,417 votes inCharleswood-St. James-Assiniboia-Headingley, Man.

Pollster Nik Nanos of Nanos Research says that almost all 13 ridings that the Liberals lost in 2019 with closest margins are still too close to call. The Hill Times file photograph

Mr. Nanos said according to his Nanos Time Map Modelling, based on historic data and the latest polling data to make monthly projections on individual ridings, almost all ridings in the list of 13 are still too close to call.

Mr. Nanos said the ridings decided by small margins in an election mean the national campaigns were not good enough to push the candidate over the winning line. Also, he said, this means that local riding factors, including the get-out-the-vote efforts, canvassing, the quality of the candidates, and organizations fell short.

So if youre a party that wins the election, and, in a particular place, you lost by like two per cent or less, the first thing you look at is the local situation, said Mr. Nanos. Did the party have a strong candidate? Whats the state of organization at the local level to mobilize voters to get out and vote? So, a lot of times, theyre their local factors for the ridings that are on the margins.

In the next election, Mr. Nanos said the 13 ridings will be critical and a good starting point both for the winners and runners-up. The ridings could make the difference in deciding a minority or the majority government, he said.

Youre looking at these ridings as the ones that you want at the top of your priority list, as part of your strategy to win a majority mandate, because it requires the least amount of effort, said Mr. Nanos. And these ridings will also be the priorities for the candidates that won the ridings.

Based on his polling, Mr. Nanos said that there are 64 ridings 21 ridings that are within two per cent margin wins and 43 within two to seven per cent margin winsat this time that are too close to call.

Earl Washburn, a senior analyst with Ekos Research, said a characteristic that stands out in the list is that almost all 13 ridings are suburban. Going forward, he said, suburban ridings will be even more important than before in the outcome of any election because a significant number of millennials are moving to the suburbs for affordability reasons, as due to the global pandemic, they dont have to commute to work anymore.This means the residents of suburbs will be more progressive than before and he expects this trend to continue.

Itll be a continuation of the trends that weve seen in the last decade, suburbs will become more Liberal-leaning as we go along, said Mr. Washburn.Thats really what your story is going to be when the federal election comes around: which party is going to be able to win over those kinds of seats.

Mr. Washburn confirmed that his own polling confirms Mr. Nanos projections that almost all 13 ridings are still too close to call and nothing much has changed. One key factor, among others, that could tip the balance in favour of one party or the other, especially in smaller city suburban ridings, is the quality of the candidates, he said.

Suburban ridings are less candidate-based, they vote more on the party, said Mr. Washburn. But in some of these other ridings, like Trois-Rivires, or West Nova, Kenora, even Niagara Falls, theyre ridings that vote more on the candidate versus the party.

Pollster Greg Lyle of Innovative Research says that considering the setbacks Liberals had in 2019, hes not surprised the Liberals lost the 13 ridings with close margins. Photograph courtesy of Greg Lyle

Greg Lyle, president of Innovative Research, said that the list does not include any downtown ridings in any of the major urban centres and consists of suburban, rural and smaller cities. He said this shows that there are as many swing ridings inside the 905-region, well-known for swing ridings and having a major influence on election results, as there are outside of the 905. Considering the fact that the Liberals suffered a number of setbacks right before and during the last election campaign, he said, its not surprising that the Liberals lost these 13 ridings with close margins that could have pushed them into the majority territory.

That was not a great election for the Liberals, said Mr. Lyle. I mean, they came out of the SNC-Lavalin controversy and walked intothe blackface controversy. A lot of things did go wrong. So its not hard to see why they fell short.

For the next election, he said, both of the main parties will be targeting these 13 ridings as the incumbents would like to keep those ridings in their column while the Liberals would try to win them thinking they came very close to winning in the last election.

Former Liberal MP John Aldag represented the riding of Cloverdale-Langley City, B.C., from 2015 to 2019, but lost to Conservative Tamara Jansen by a margin of 2.5 per cent of the votes in 2019. Mr. Aldag said there were a number of factors that contributed to his loss, including the political controversies, negative campaign tactics by opposition parties, and bad weather on election day. He said he was recently nominated to run for the Liberals in the next election and will be redoubling his efforts to win the riding back.

Mr. Aldag said that the current projection for the riding, which is too close to call, does not worry him as polling numbers go up and down depending on the day. He pointed out that the Liberal Partys numbers went down in the last few weeks because of the interruption in the vaccine rollout but now that the rollout is returning back on track, the numbers are improving, he said.

Polls change from time to time, and Ive been watching it, said Mr. Aldag.

When we go into a campaign, whenever that is, [constituents] will be looking at the record of myself and the record of the person who defeated me and just letting voters choose who they would want to be the representative in Ottawa.

Former Liberal MP and cabinet minister Bob Nault who lost his riding in 2019 says he will not run in the next election. The Hill Times photograph by Andrew Meade

Former Liberal MP Bob Nault, who represented the riding of Kenora, Ont., for six terms and lost the riding to Conservative MP Eric Melillo by a margin of four per cent in 2019, said hes not planning on running in the next election. As of last week, the Liberals had not nominated a candidate in the riding, which is the largest in landmass in the province but the smallest in population, and is home to 42 First Nations. The Liberals lost this riding byonly 1,110 votes and Mr. Nault said that one key factor that led to losing in 2019 was that it was a three-way race in which the division of the progressive vote led to the Conservatives winning this riding. Mr. Melillo won 34 per cent of the votes, the Liberals 30 per cent, the NDP 28.5, and the Greens 5.5 per cent. Mr. Nault said that if theres one thing that he could have done more in the last election was to put in more resources into his GOTV efforts, which is always a major challenge in a rural riding like Kenora where some regions are not accessible by road.

I door-knocked as much as I possibly could in the communities that you can door-knock, said Mr. Nault. But now, remember, the only way somebody can get to 24 communities out of those 42 First Nations, is you have to fly. Theres no road, right. Its a little bit more complicated.

The 13 Ridings That Denied Liberals A Majority in the 2019 Federal Election

Riding Name MP Name Vote Margin Percentage Margin

Shefford, Que. Bloc MP Andranne Larouche 898 1.5%

Aurora-Oak Ridges-Richmond Hill, Ont. Conservative MP Leona Alleslev 1,060 2%

Kenora, Ont. Conservative MP Eric Melillo 1,110 4%

West Nova, N.S. Conservative MP Chris dEntremont 1,365 2.9%

Cloverdale-Langley City, B.C. Conservative MP Tamara Jansen 1,94 2.5%

Trois-Rivires, Que. Bloc MP Louise Charbonneau 1,466 2.4%

Flamborough-Glanbrook, Ont. Conservative MP David Sweet 1,652 2.6%

Windsor West, Ont. NDP MP Brian Masse 1,922 3.7%

Niagara Falls, Ont. Conservative MP Tony Baldinelli 2,061 3%

*Hastings-Lennox and Addington, Ont. Ind. MP Derek Sloan 2,247 4.3%

Northumberland-Peterborough South, Ont. Conservative MP Philip Lawrence 2,408 3.5%

Charleswood-St. James-Assiniboia-Headingley, Man. Conservative MP Marty Morantz 2,417 5.2%

Longueuil-Saint Hurbert, Que. Bloc MP Denis Trudel 2,590 4.3%

*Derek Sloan was elected as a Conservative MP in the 2019 election but now is sitting as an Independent MP.

Data compiled by The Hill Times deputy digital editor Samantha Wright Allen

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The 13 ridings that denied Liberals majority in 2019 still too close to call, say pollsters - The Hill Times

For Canberra Liberals Leader Elizabeth Lee, the last few weeks have been "emotionally charged".

Late last year, she decided to go public with claims she'd been sexually harrassed by former High Court Judge Dyson Heydon in 2013.

Mr Heydon has emphatically denied any allegation of sexual harrassment.

Over the past few weeks, she's been reflecting on her decision to speak out, while watching on as women have made allegations of sexual assault, sexism and misogyny at Australia's federal Parliament.

They included Brittany Higgins, a former Liberal staffer who claims she was raped by a colleague in a ministerial office.

When the March 4 Justice protest was held on the lawn of that same building, Ms Lee joined their ranks.

ABC News: Tom Maddocks

Ms Lee said those recent events had reinforced her belief in the importance of women in leadership positions telling their stories.

It was a conviction that was also galvanisedin the aftermath of her accusation against Justice Heydon, when she received an outpouring of support.

"A lot of women who I know and who I don't know, reached out to me and said 'thank you for sharing because a similar experience happened to me and made me realise I'm not alone'," she said.

"As somebody especially from a multicultural background, there is so much stigma attached to coming out and revealing that you've had an experience."

Ms Lee said she wantedto set an example forwomen from diverse backgrounds "to let them know that it's not their fault".

She said too often, people who had experienced sexual harassment or abuse blamed themselves for what had occurred.

"A lot of the time that's where it goes a self-blame game," she said.

From the start, she was aware of the significance of her appointment to the top job.

"There was a lot of interest when I was elected leader of my party. The first woman leader for my party for about 20 years, but also of the female leadership team with my deputy Giulia Jones," she said.

"I think that was really welcomed by the community."

She said she was encouraged by the fact that women were strongly represented in the ACT Legislative Assembly.

"I think it helps enormously, because the public has spoken very loudly that they want to see women in leadership roles," she said.

ABC News: Dylan Anderson

Ms Lee contends there isa big difference between the culture on Capital Hill and what happensup the road at the ACT Legislative Assembly, but she warns no workplace is immune.

"What we've been hearing is just horrific," she said.

"The other thing that we've realised from these instances that have come up is that we can't be complacent in any workplace.

"It's about making sure that our leaders, across the country, across all political parties, know that this is not limited and it's not unique to politics and that we do need to look at this very seriously across the board."

Ms Lee would notbe drawn on whether she thinks there needs to be an inquiry into the allegationagainst Attorney-General Christian Porter, but said she hassince spoken to Prime Minister Scott Morrison about issues for women in parliament.

"He himself actually raised his concerns about what was happening as well," she said.

"So I am under no delusions about the importance of what is happening, the gravity of the situation and that is why politicians from all parties have been very concerned and have expressed that concern."

Read this article:
Canberra Liberals leader Elizabeth Lee on the importance of speaking out about injustice as a woman in leadership - ABC News

Illustration: John ShakespeareCredit:The Sydney Morning Herald

I was abused by a family member, groomed from the age of eight. Its affected my whole life and the decisions I have made. Its a common story you hear from anybody in that situation and its a good example of why we need to have a national conversation about these things. It is such a prevalent issue.

The speed with which Janine Hendrys spontaneous tweet how many women would you need to form a circle surrounding Parliament House? turned into a 100,000-person national rally is a pretty good clue. It took only two weeks. It was not a celebrity-led event; it had no organisational backing, no money.

We have a once-in-a-generation opportunity now for real change, says Archer. Youve got your head in the sand if you cant see the momentum behind this push for justice, for change, for people to have their voices heard.

But its the policy of the government to put its head in the sand. The leadership is trying to move on to its preferred topics, its preferred political battlegrounds of the economy, the vaccination program, national security.

Scott Morrison judged at the outset that the demand for justice for women was just a passing enthusiasm. That was a month ago. He was wrong. Hes hated every moment of the campaign, the news, the noise. Two of his cabinet ministers are on leave, the government has lost ground in the polls, its lost control of the political agenda.

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The government has bungled badly and just wants the whole women problem to disappear, as if 52 per cent of the electorate is some special-interest clique that can be relegated with a couple of standard crisis-management techniques and talking points dictated by political backroom apparatchiks with all the life experience of an introverted monk in a cloistered order.

Morrison declined the invitation to join the rally. Instead, he offered to meet three or four delegates in his office. The organisers declined: Given that so many have come to the steps of Parliament to make their voices heard, the question is, why cant the Prime Minister take the last few steps through the front door and hear them directly?

In the event, at least 15 Coalition MPs and senators were prepared to venture outside their high-security hideout to meet their fellow citizens. Should Morrison have taken those last few steps? Bridget Archer says its hard for her to know whether it would have been helpful.

I think what would be good now is to follow up, she says. We have to keep the momentum or it will be lost.

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Another Liberal backbencher, Russell Broadbent, has written to Morrison proposing a national summit of womens groups to discuss the subject.

Archer supports this idea. I dont think the Prime Minister or the Opposition Leader is to be expected to magically fix it all. But we cant point to the record amount we are investing in health or in domestic violence, even though its true, because its not enough. It doesnt matter how much youre tipping in if the bucket has a hole in it. Weve done that with sexual violence and its got worse.

Something is not working. The missing piece is cultural change, and that is a structural issue. We cant presume to know it all. You have to listen. Something along the lines of a national summit would be a really good start, and then build on that.

It would need to be bipartisan if it was to work. Archer says she is consulting womens groups about such an idea. In the next couple of days I will certainly be putting my views to the Prime Minister.

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Shell be up against the conventional political playbook for such inconveniences. And she knows it. She summarises accurately the political play to date: The Labor Party has been saying for a few weeks that the Liberals have a problem with women. Now the Liberal party has been saying you, Labor, dont have the moral high ground, which has been one of the reasons that the Prime Ministers office has been cheerleading the Liberals Nicolle Flint as she repeatedly accuses Labor of tacitly endorsing a sexist hate campaign against her at the 2019 election.

This week is the closing of the political loop on that yes, both sides are guilty of mistreating women, Archer says. We are missing the point. The whole country has a problem of culture, of increased levels of violence and disrespect against women.

Chanel Contoss petition, with thousands of testimonials of current and former schoolgirls detailing sexual assault, is one indicator.

Another is the NSW Police Commissioner, Mick Fullers expression of frustration this week with the annual 15,000 reports of sexual assault: Men continue to get away with it less than 2 per cent of the reports lead to guilty verdicts in court. His proposal for an app as a way of registering sexual consent may be impractical, but it was a genuine effort to find new ways to deal with an intractable problem.

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Closing the loop on the political play the two major parties inflicting damage on each other is not the end of the story and it isnt even the beginning, says Archer.

The other element of the standard playbook is the look busy trick. The government is busy with urgent priorities just now. Archers response: The Australian people rightly expect their government to walk and chew gum at the same time. Yes, there is a vaccine rollout, and there is an economic recovery plan. You know what? This is an equally important issue of national significance. What are you saying if you say other things are more important? Thats the problem. Thats exactly the problem.

The politics is the process of strangling the humanity. The political week started with the rally demanding attention for the women of Australia; it ended with a parade of politicians talking about themselves and each other. We have to turn our gaze away from ourselves and back onto the people of Australia, Archer urges.

If the national interest isnt compelling enough, theres also a political incentive. The Coalition once enjoyed an enormous lead over Labor in its share of womens votes. In 1967 the Coalition had an advantage of 9 per cent over Labor, as the ANUs Australian Electoral Study shows.

Thats been declining consistently and went to nothing towards the end of the Howard period, says the ANUs Ian McAllister. Women were exactly divided between the main parties in their support for a while.

The long-term trend of women to be less conservative and more progressive is witnessed across much of the Western world, for three reasons, McAllister explains: a growing proportion of women went into higher education; likewise they went into the work force; and women, once more religious then men, lost that tendency.

Under Julia Gillard, Labor won a surge of women voters, its advantage 7 per cent for a while. Most of that has gone, but Labor still held a 2 per cent edge over the government among women at the 2019 election.

Former prime minister Julia Gillard welcomed another woman to Labors ranks when Senator Marielle Smith delivered her first parliamentary speech in September 2019.Credit:Alex Ellinghausen

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All of which suggests that factors such as leadership and the handling of gender issues in Parliament may well have an influence on voting preference, McAllister concludes.

In other words, if its not too late, the powerful current demanding justice for women today isnt necessarily just a danger to be dodged; it can be intelligently approached and humanely handled, a political asset to be salvaged.

The women and the men of Australia are telling us that the time is now and they are looking for leadership, says Bridget Archer.

Spoken like a true leader.

Peter Hartcher is political editor and international editor of The Sydney Morning Herald and The Age.

Originally posted here:
The first Liberal MP to join the March 4 Justice: her heartfelt message for the PM - Sydney Morning Herald

Lyndon B. Johnson, as US President, with Hubert H. Humphrey, as US Vice President. (AP)

It was once said that the moral test of government is how that government treats those who are in the dawn of life, the children; those who are in the twilight of life, the elderly; and those who are in the shadows of life, the sick, the needy and the handicapped.

These words of the late Minnesota Sen. Hubert H. Humphrey have always best defined for me what it means to be a liberal Democrat. I still believe them to govern my political philosophy.

The key is belief in government not as the problem but as the needed counterpoint to over-concentrated power to level the playing field, as progressive presidents from Teddy Roosevelt to Franklin Delano Roosevelt to John Kennedy to Bill Clinton would say, for equal opportunity, individual responsibility and social justice for the average American.

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In recent months, however, some people who sincerely believe they are liberals are being quoted in the national media and on the blogosphere as if their definition of liberalism is the only one.

For example, if a Democrat is on record as pro-choice, pro-gay marriage, pro-ObamaCare, pro-minimum wage, pro-labor, pro-strong environmental regulation or pro-preschool supported by taxes, if that Democrat also believes in the value of business, believes in the private sector as being the best job creator and often more efficient than government, that Democrat still risks being called a conservative or, to many even worse, a centrist.

This reminds me of something I wrote about my own personal liberal political hero in the 1960s, the late Sen. Robert F. Kennedy of New York, brother of former President Kennedy. Here is what I wrote in my 2006 book, "Scandal: How Gotcha Politics Is Destroying America:"

When Kennedy announced the Bedford-Stuyvesant redevelopment plan, which used Republican-style market incentives and tax breaks for business to spur jobs in the urban inner city, he was criticized by a well-known and respected Democratic socialist writer, Michael Harrington, as putting too much trust in private business. Kennedys reportedly responded: The difference between me and [Republican conservatives] is I mean what I say.

... Kennedy also prayed with Cesar Chavez in the grape fields of California to win collective bargaining rights and justice for agricultural workers. ... He was sometimes rough, often described as ruthless ... but was seen by both left and right as blunt-speaking, passionate and authentic. ... His followers ran the gamut, from culturally conservative blue collar workers who became Reagan Democrats in the 1980s to the poorest African Americans and Hispanics in Americas underclass. The results of the May 1968 Indiana Democratic primary were a dramatic indication of this. He carried 9 of the 11 congressional districts, won 17 of the 25 rural southern counties, won more than 85 percent of the African American vote, and carried the seven [white] backlash counties that segregationist George Wallace had won in the 1964 Democratic presidential primary.

So, although RFK is remembered as a liberal for his 1968 anti-war and anti-poverty presidential campaign ... he represented someone who is neither left, nor right, but both; liked and disliked by both; pro-business but also pro-regulation; religious and even moralistic about family values and faith, but tolerant of dissent and committed to the separation of Church and State. Most importantly, Robert Kennedy connected with people who wanted their problems solved.

Believe it or not, I actually read over the weekend in an Associated Press article that there are some self-described liberals who challenge President Obamas liberal credentials because he attempted to negotiate a grand bargain with Speaker John Boehner (R-Ohio) last year to try to reduce budget deficits and a $16 trillion national debt (now approaching $17 trillion, or about equal to gross domestic product).

What would Hubert Humphrey and Robert Kennedy say if they were alive today, about a government that uses credit cards every day to pay for all its programs and plans to dump all the receipts on the laps of its children and grandchildren, expecting them to pay the tab?

I believe both men would regard such a government, unwilling to raise taxes and cut spending and reform entitlements to avoid passing the tab to our children, as neither moral nor liberal.

If you are a liberal, what do you think?

This column appears first and weekly in The Hill and the Hill.com.

Original post:
What is a liberal? What is a conservative? | Fox News

Blue states are states that have a more liberal population and culture, as opposed to the conservative red states. While there are many more red states than blue states, the blue states tend to have much higher populations, so they have higher numbers in indexes like the electoral college and the number of congressional representatives.

There are also neutral states, usually referred to as swing states because these states could go either Democratic or Republican in an election. Candidates typically do most of their campaigning in the swing states, including Pennsylvania, Virginia, Wisconsin, Michigan, Iowa, Minnesota, Nebraska, Colorado, Nevada, and Florida.

The most liberal state in the country is Massachusetts, where the equally progressive city of Boston is located. Next is Hawaii, followed by Vermont, Washington, New York, New Hampshire, California, Maryland, New Jersey, and Maine. This index of how liberal a state is is based on how many liberals there are compared to conservatives.

Just like some states can be more liberal than others, some cities are more liberal than others. These cities tend to have high minority populations and public expressions of LGBTQ+ acceptance. The most liberal city is San Francisco, California, followed by Washington, DC; Seattle, Washington; Oakland, California; Boston, Massachusetts; Minneapolis, Minnesota; Detroit, Michigan; New York City, New York; Buffalo, New York; and Baltimore, Maryland. Notice that all of these cities are in blue states.

States can change from liberal to conservative over time due to factors like immigration, empowerment of minority groups (which tend to support liberal policies over conservative ones), and taxation. New York, for example, used to be highly conservative but is now much more progressive.

Below are the ten most liberal states in the United States. The data is based on a 2018 Gallup pull.

Massachusetts is the most liberal state in the U.S., with 35% of voters identifying as liberal. With 21% of voters identifying as conservative, Massachusetts has a liberal advantage of 14 points. Moderates are the largest group in Massachusetts, with 38% of the voting population identifying as moderate. In the 2016 presidential election, 60% of voters voted Democratic.

Massachusetts is also the home state of well-known politicians such as Elizabeth Warren, Michael Dukakis, Jill Stein, and the Kennedys. That state also has many urban areas and a highly educated population two factors that strongly contribute to a liberal environment.

Maine is the second-most liberal state in the country. 33% of voters identify as liberal; however, the liberal advantage is -2 because 35% of voters identify as conservative. In the 2016 presidential election, 47.9% of Maine voted Democratic, while 44.9% voted Republican. Maine is one of the few states where moderates do not outnumber liberals or conservatives, with 29% of voters identifying as moderate.

Vermont is the third-most liberal state in the country, with 32% of voters identifying as liberal. With 28% of voters identifying as conservative, Vermont has a liberal advantage of 4 points, the third-highest country. 56.3% of Vermont voters voted Democratic in the 2016 election, while 30.3% voted Republican. In 2012, Barack Obama won Vermont by 35.6 percentage points.

Vermont is the home of Bernie Sanders, a self-described democratic socialist with very leftists views who ran for president unsuccessfully in 2016 and is running again in 2020. He received 71% of the vote in Vermont in 2016.

With 31% of voters identifying as liberal, Washington is the fourth-most liberal state in the United States. 28% of voters identify as conservative, giving Washington a liberal advantage of 3 points. Moderates have the largest percentage of voters, with 37%. In the 2016 presidential election, 52.5% of voters voted Democratic.

New York is the fifth-most liberal state in the U.S. 30% of voters identify as liberal in New York versus 27% who identify as conservative, giving New York a 3-point liberal advantage. New York is geographically split, a majority of upstate areas vote conservative, and the larger metro areas vote liberal. In the 2016 presidential election, 59% of voters voted Democratic.

New Hampshire is the sixth-most liberal state in a tie with New York at 30%. New Hampshire is 28% conservative, giving it a slightly less liberal advantage than New York of 2 points. In the 2016 presidential election, 46.8% of voters voted Democratic, only a 0.3% lead over those who voted Republican (46.5%).

California is the seventh-most liberal state in the United States. 29% of voters identify as liberal, and 29% identify as conservative, giving California a liberal advantage of zero points. 36% of voters in California identify as moderate. As the state with the most electoral votes, Californias vote is a big deal in elections. In the 2016 presidential elections, 61.5% of voters voted Democratic, a 30% lead over the Republican vote.

Oregon is the eighth-most liberal state in the country, with 28% of voters identifying as liberal. Oregon has a liberal advantage of -4 points due to 32% of voters identifying as conservative; however, 35% of voters identify as moderate. In the 2016 presidential election, 50.1% of voters voted Democratic while 39.1% voted Republican. The most Democratic areas of the state were around Eugene and Portland.

In a tie with Oregon is Maryland, which also has 28% of voters identifying as liberal. Maryland voters are 29% conservative, giving the state a -1 point liberal advantage. The largest group of voters is moderate, at 39%. Most of Marylands liberal base is in the Washington D.C. metro area and Baltimore. In the 2016 presidential election, 60.3% of voters voted Democratic.

Maryland legalized gay marriage, pushed for major gun restrictions, and imposed tax increases, among other progressive policies.

Hawaii is tied with both Maryland and Oregon has the eighth-most liberal state in the United States. 28% of voters in Hawaii identify as liberal, and 22% identify as conservative, giving Hawaii a liberal advantage of 6 points, the second-highest in the country. Moderates are the largest group in Hawaii, with 45% of voters identify as moderate, which is also the largest percentage of any state in the country. In 2016, 62.2% of Hawaii voters voted Democratic in the presidential election.

The top ten most liberal urban areas in the United States, starting with the most liberal city in America, include the following:

Continue reading here:
Most Liberal States 2021 - World Population Review