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Yet the centre-right prime minister, Mark Rutte, is still likely to form a government

DUTCH POLITICS are absurdly complicated. The Netherlands has a proportional representation system with no minimum threshold (most EU countries have one at 5%), ensuring a large number of parties and a constant churn of new ones. Voters are more evenly divided than ever between them. The prime minister, Mark Rutte, a brilliant and imperturbably cheerful tactician, has nonetheless managed to stay atop the heap for ten years, through three ruling coalitions. Last year he was hit with the covid-19 pandemic and with a child-benefits scandal that forced his government to resign just two months before an election. Yet there was never much doubt that when the votes were counted, he and his centre-right Liberal (VVD) party would again come in first. Preliminary results after the ballot on March 17th showed that the VVD had won 23%, well ahead of any other party.

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Second place, however, was a big surprise: D66, a left-leaning, liberal pro-European party. Its leader Sigrid Kaag, the current trade minister, is a former UN diplomat who presented herself as a candidate to become the Netherlands first female prime minister. D66 won 15%, one of the best results in its history. For his part, Mr Rutte moved towards the centre during the campaign, imitating left-wing parties rhetoric on social policy. And with the exception of the populist right, every party emphatically backed strong climate policies. For a country that spent last summer leading Europes frugal club of countries opposed to greater fiscal integration and nearly torpedoed the blocs 750bn ($900bn) covid-19 relief fund, the election may signal an important shift.

Mr Rutte owes his victory partly to approval of his handling of covid-19. The Netherlands has not done very wellinfection rates have been higher than in peers like Germany and Denmark, and track-and-trace and vaccination programmes have been slow. But most voters seemed not to mind, while others blamed the health minister, a Christian Democrat. During the campaign most of the opposition avoided the issue. As for the child-benefits scandal (in which the tax authority financially ruined thousands of parents over false accusations of fraud), it was not the VVD leader but the head of Labour who quit over his role in the affair.

Yet even for the teflon-coated Mr Rutte, forming a coalition will be difficult. Between 15 and 17 parties have made it into parliament, depending on the final count. Together, the VVD, D66 and the Christian Democrats have exactly half the seats. But the Christian Democrats vote share fell to just 10%, from 13% in the previous election. Their leader, Wopke Hoekstra, currently finance minister, had been billed as a contender for Mr Ruttes job but ran a clumsy campaign with no clear theme. They may prefer a spell in opposition to rebuild their strength, making Mr Ruttes task harder.

The populist right split into more parties, but grew overall. The Party for Freedom (PVV), led by the anti-Muslim firebrand Geert Wilders, had hoped to finish second but settled for third with 11%. A smaller far-right party, Forum for Democracy, grew to 5%, while a new one, JA21, won 2%. All are considered untouchable by the major parties. On the left, Labour, the GreenLeft party and the far-left Socialists were pummelled, each winning 5-6%. Mr Rutte is unlikely to want more than one of them in his cabinet.

That leaves the great swirl of small-to-tiny Dutch parties. They often forecast trends that take longer to materialise in other countries. Four years ago the arrival of Forum for Democracy seemed to augur a new wave of alt-right populism, but that party fractured in November over racism and anti-semitism. The Party for the Animals, the worlds first animal-rights party to win parliamentary representation, got 4%. Identity politics is going strong: DENK, a party representing Dutch Muslims, won 2%. Meanwhile Volt, a new pan-European liberal party that runs in every country in the EU, rose in the polls in the final weeks of the campaign and won 2%.

The VVDs turn to the centre and the success of D66 suggest the next Dutch government may be a tad less parsimonious in future EU fiscal debates. But much depends on which parties join the coalition. In 2017 forming a government took over six months. Mr Rutte says the covid-19 crisis requires more urgent action, and wants speedy negotiations with D66 and the Christian Democrats. But Ms Kaag wants to bring in more parties on the left. She will be happy to take her time.

This article appeared in the Europe section of the print edition under the headline "Suddenly Sigrid"

See the article here:
A Dutch election boosts both pro-EU liberals and the far right - The Economist

Tom Mulcair was the leader of the New Democratic Party of Canada between 2012 and 2017.

Since the Fall, Justin Trudeau has been champing at the bit to launch into a general election. In October, the Liberals threatened the opposition parties that if they insisted on pushing for a new committee to study the WE Charity scandal, it would be a confidence vote that could send Canadians to the polls. Trudeau wasnt bluffing. He couldnt decently have called an election just as the second wave of the pandemic was hitting, but if he could blame the opposition, he could get away with it.

Opposition parties live for the next election. That an election was seen by them as a potential threat and not a godsend, spoke volumes about the Liberals strength and their own lack of preparedness.

Recent polls have the Official Opposition Conservatives at 30 per cent. Even at his low water mark in terms of personal popularity, Stephen Harper still managed to get 32 per cent of the vote in the 2015 campaign.

In their elections held during the pandemic, both New Brunswicks Conservative and B.C.s NDP minority governments were rewarded with majorities. Saskatchewan returned its government with a renewed majority. The Federal Liberals want their turn.

Its easy to understand. After a year of restrictions and lockdowns, people are exhausted and want some hope. The parties that had been there to help, got rewarded. Thats an object lesson for the Conservatives as we head into a likely late Spring election. You have to have something other than frustrated grievances on offer.

The Liberals know that a Conservative Party below 30 per cent is their key to a majority victory. Over the past few weeks weve seen the Liberals check off boxes for promises on everything from a new language policy to guns. It hasnt all been smooth sailing but theyve been clearing the way.

When Chrystia Freeland announced that we would not have a budget in March, you could sense the trap being set and the ballot question come into focus: do you want to re-elect the Liberals, who took care of you and your family; or do you want the Conservatives, who will bring tough times and austerity?

Freelands yet-to-be-scheduled budget will have a big honking plan for post-pandemic stimulus spending and more deficits to go with it. The Conservatives will rail that the Liberals overspent to the tune of $100 billion prior to the pandemic and when it hitthe cupboard was bare. Theyll complain that we shouldve had a budget long before. Theyll ask how such amounts could ever be paid back. It will all be true and it will all be for naught.

When the U.S. can cough up a further $1.9 trillion to sail its way out of the post-pandemic doldrums, surely nothing Trudeau and Freeland can spend will appear worrisome by comparison.

A small clue as to the Conservative challenge could be seen in last weeks activities that commemorated one year of pandemic. There were solemn events in various capitals across the country, including Ottawa. Trudeau, always at his best when emoting, was striking just the right chord.

Then it was Erin OTooles turn. It was tone deaf. Instead of empathy, caring and emotion, he rhymed off the governments shortcomings. Dissing its performance on vaccines, making wobbly comparisons to the U.S. vaccine delivery (yep, they manufacture them, we dont). It was a recipe for a return to opposition.

The vaccine argument is over, that ship has sailed, Trudeau pulled off his Carbomite manoeuvre. Whatever had to be changed or added to the original contracts has been. We may have given up the right to sue, we may have greatly increased what we had to pay, it doesnt matter. People are getting vaccinated from coast-to-coast-to coast and well have largely moved on by June.

Somewhere the keeper of the Big Red Playbook is thumbing through the chapters covering the 1972 and 1974 Canadian general elections. In 72 Trudeau Pre lost his majority after just one term. The flamboyant object of Trudeaumania had been given a lesson in humility. He made friends with David Lewiss NDP to govern for a while, then opened a withering fire on them as he called a general election for the Summer of 1974. The rest is history and Trudeau would reign (almost) uninterrupted well into the 1980s.

Trudeau fils can hardly wait to try his hand and seems unconcerned about any opponent.

Jagmeet Singh has done a very good job preparing his troops for the election. His fundraising has been strong and his support remains at a historically solid 20 per cent. He has some very seasoned advisors who have deep government experience, notably in Manitoba. Theyre ready for battle and know the task ahead. Their deft handling of the Green Partys attempt to make up an insurrection in New Brunswick during the last campaign showed expertise. That bench strength will serve him well once again.

Tragically, some elements of his caucus have chosen to ride their anti-Israel hobby horse at this precise moment and it will take all of Singhs considerable skills not to let it become an unnecessary distraction. Even as historical elements from his Partys fringes try to ignite the issue, Singh will be required to waste precious energy and time explaining that talk of Israel apartheid and shmoozing with Jeremy Corbin are out of line with established NDP policy and out of synch with Canadian voters.

Annamie Paul remains an exceptional political figure in her own right. She knows environmental issues better than any party leader and is solid in debate in both French and in English. Unfortunately for her, like Banquos ghost, Elizabeth May still haunts the hallways and can be counted upon to scold the other parties and help Trudeau whenever she can, most recently berating their tomfoolery. Its difficult to see how that can help the new Green leader take on those same Liberals.

The Bloc is chugging along, leader Yves-Franois Blanchet has been careful not to make himself the author of the governments defeat, most recently backing the Liberals Bill on medically-assisted dying. His party is always at the unique whim of the electors in La Belle Province. The Bloc has bounced between its high as official opposition and its low of only four seats, since being founded. Blanchet will try his best not do anything to compromise the 30-plus ridings he won in the last campaign.

Blanchet will be vying for the same seats OToole hoped to compete for in Francois Legaults heartland outside Montral. Given OTooles underperformance to date, Bloc seats are probably at greater risk in the event of a Liberal resurgence. Legault could still prove to be a wild card, though, because he is ideologically close to the Conservatives. Legault also knows that a strong Bloc could help its provincial separatist sister, the Parti Quebecois, a rival for Legaults CAQ in next years general provincial election. Fifty shades of blue in the Quebec countryside.

Peter MacKay once famously said that Andrew Scheer had missed scoring on an empty net in failing to defeat Trudeau, despite the blackface scandal and other weaknesses.

That may not have been entirely fair.

What anyone facing Trudeau has to learn is that youre not running against a politician, youre running against a celebrity. Thats why going on the attack often backfires. Canadians may not like all of the Liberals policies or their politicians but they feel that theyve known Trudeau all his life and, like indulgent parents, at times seem willing to excuse even the worst behaviour.

This will be a campaign like no other. By any fair measure, the Liberals have done exceedingly well in managing the social parts of the pandemic but failed miserably at others, in particular protection at our borders.

Trudeau is facing a third potential finding by the ethics Commissioner that he broke the rules. Will Canadians be as forgiving as ever, or will it be three strikes youre out as far as some voters are concerned?

Watching the opposition parties whiff on their attempts to pin down the defence minister on issues of sexual misconduct in the military, and completely muff their most recent outing with the Keilburgers, its hard to conclude that Trudeaus confidence is misplaced.

More here:
What to expect from the Liberals: an election, ASAP - Maclean's

One day in March 2015, I sat in a theater in New York City and took careful notes as a series of personages led by Hillary Clinton and Melinda Gates described the dazzling sunburst of liberation that was coming our way thanks to entrepreneurs, foundations and Silicon Valley. The presentation I remember most vividly was that of a famous TV actor who rhapsodized about the wonders of Twitter, Facebook and the rest: No matter which platform you prefer, she told us, social media has given us all an extraordinary new world, where anyone, no matter their gender, can share their story across communities, continents and computer screens. A whole new world without ceilings.

Six years later and liberals cant wait for that extraordinary new world to end. Today we know that social media is what gives you things like Donald Trumps lying tweets, the QAnon conspiracy theory and the Capitol riot of 6 January. Social media, we now know, is a volcano of misinformation, a non-stop wallow in hatred and lies, generated for fun and profit, and these days liberal politicians are openly pleading with social medias corporate masters to pleez clamp a ceiling on it, to stop people from sharing their false and dangerous stories.

A reality crisis is the startling name a New York Times story recently applied to this dismal situation. An information disorder is the more medical-sounding label that other authorities choose to give it. Either way, the diagnosis goes, we Americans are drowning in the semiotic swirl. We have come loose from the shared material world, lost ourselves in an endless maze of foreign disinformation and rightwing conspiracy theory.

In response, Joe Biden has called upon us as a nation to defend the truth and defeat the lies. A renowned CNN journalist advocates a harm reduction model to minimize information pollution and deliver the rational views that the public wants. A New York Times writer has suggested the president appoint a federal reality czar who would help the Silicon Valley platform monopolies mute the siren song of QAnon and thus usher us into a new age of sincerity.

These days Democratic politicians lean on anyone with power over platforms to shut down the propaganda of the right. Former Democratic officials pen op-eds calling on us to get over free speech. Journalists fantasize about how easily and painlessly Silicon Valley might monitor and root out objectionable speech. In a recent HBO documentary on the subject, journalist after journalist can be seen rationalizing that, because social media platforms are private companies, the first amendment doesnt apply to them and, I suppose, neither should the American tradition of free-ranging, anything-goes political speech.

In the absence of such censorship, we are told, the danger is stark. In a story about Steve Bannons ongoing Trumpist podcasts, for example, ProPublica informs us that extremism experts say the rhetoric still feeds into an alternative reality that breeds anger and cynicism, which may ultimately lead to violence.

In liberal circles these days there is a palpable horror of the uncurated world, of thought spaces flourishing outside the consensus, of unauthorized voices blabbing freely in some arena where there is no moderator to whom someone might be turned in. The remedy for bad speech, we now believe, is not more speech, as per Justice Brandeiss famous formula, but an extremism expert shushing the world.

What an enormous task that shushing will be! American political culture is and always has been a matter of myth and idealism and selective memory. Selling, not studying, is our peculiar national talent. Hollywood, not historians, is who writes our sacred national epics. There were liars-for-hire in this country long before Roger Stone came along. Our politics has been a bath in bullshit since forever. People pitching the dumbest of ideas prosper fantastically in this country if their ideas happen to be what the ruling class would prefer to believe.

Debunking was how the literary left used to respond to Americas Niagara of nonsense. Criticism, analysis, mockery and protest: these were our weapons. We were rational-minded skeptics, and we had a grand old time deflating creationists, faith healers, puffed-up militarists and corporate liars of every description.

Censorship and blacklisting were, with important exceptions, the weapons of the puritanical right: those were their means of lashing out against rap music or suggestive plays or leftwingers who were gainfully employed.

What explains the clampdown mania among liberals? The most obvious answer is because they need an excuse. Consider the history: the right has enjoyed tremendous success over the last few decades, and it is true that conservatives capacity for hallucinatory fake-populist appeals has helped them to succeed. But that success has also happened because the Democrats, determined to make themselves the party of the affluent and the highly educated, have allowed the right to get away with it.

There have been countless times over the years where Democrats might have reappraised this dumb strategy and changed course. But again and again they chose not to, blaming their failure on everything but their glorious postindustrial vision. In 2016, for example, liberals chose to blame Russia for their loss rather than look in the mirror. On other occasions they assured one another that they had no problems with white blue-collar workers until it became undeniable that they did, whereupon liberals chose to blame such people for rejecting them.

And now we cluck over a lamentable information disorder. The Republicans didnt suffer the landslide defeat they deserved last November; the right is still as potent as ever; therefore Trumpist untruth is responsible for the malfunctioning public mind. Under no circumstances was it the result of the Democrats own lackluster performance, their refusal to reach out to the alienated millions with some kind of FDR-style vision of social solidarity.

Or perhaps this new taste for censorship is an indication of Democratic healthiness. This is a party that has courted professional-managerial elites for decades, and now they have succeeded in winning them over, along with most of the wealthy areas where such people live. Liberals scold and supervise like an offended ruling class because to a certain extent thats who they are. More and more, they represent the well-credentialed people who monitor us in the workplace, and more and more do they act like it.

What all this censorship talk really is, though, is a declaration of defeat defeat before the Biden administration has really begun. To give up on free speech is to despair of reason itself. (Misinformation, we read in the New York Times, is impervious to critical thinking.) The people simply cannot be persuaded; something more forceful is in order; they must be guided by we, the enlightened; and the first step in such a program is to shut off Americas many burbling fountains of bad takes.

Let me confess: every time I read one of these stories calling on us to get over free speech or calling on Mark Zuckerberg to press that big red mute button on our political opponents, I feel a wave of incredulity sweep over me. Liberals believe in liberty, I tell myself. This cant really be happening here in the USA.

But, folks, it is happening. And the folly of it all is beyond belief. To say that this will give the right an issue to campaign on is almost too obvious. To point out that it will play straight into the rights class-based grievance-fantasies requires only a little more sophistication. To say that it is a betrayal of everything we were taught liberalism stood for a betrayal that we will spend years living down may be too complex a thought for our punditburo to consider, but it is nevertheless true.

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Liberals want to blame rightwing 'misinformation' for our problems. Get real - The Guardian

The West Australian Liberal Party lies in ruins.

For so long the dominant political force in this state, the Liberals have been sent a message by the electorate that is beyond brutal in its force.

The politics, the policies and the people. We've collected all our coverage on the election campaign here.

Their leader is gone, blue-ribbon territory all over Perth has fallen into Labor hands and the Liberals' Lower House ranks are now so minuscule that they could fit on a tandem bike, outnumbered by the Nationals.

And their stint in the political wilderness could last much longer than the four miserable years that now certainly await the Liberals, after an unmitigated disaster of an election night.

"This is ground zero for the Liberal party," Churchlands MP Sean L'Estrange told party supporters at a function that, somehow, could have been his political wake, with his seat now on a knife-edge.

"The nuclear bomb has gone off."

ABC News: Jessica Warriner

March 13 was never going to be about toppling Mark McGowan for the Liberals, once the Premier began enjoying rockstar popularity in the COVID era.

But as recently as when Zak Kirkup took on the leadership in late November, the hope in the Liberal partyroom was that they could save the furniture.

The WA election has been called for Labor.

Holding onto their 13 seats, maybe even gaining one or two more, was seen as the bar for Mr Kirkup.

Instead, the party has now fallen off a cliff and seems to have lost both its official party status and its role as the opposition.

"Very few people walk away from this catastrophe undamaged," was the stinging verdict from one MP.

Mr Kirkup losing his own seat is one of the telling signs he is the first WA opposition leader to do so, and the first major party leader in WA to suffer that fate in nearly 90 years.

ABC News: Eliza Laschon

But the fact it was one of the least-surprising things to happen on election night shows beyond doubt how badly the campaign went for the blue team.

The Liberal post-mortem will be stinging, with the finger pointing having begun long before polls closed.

One of the greatest causes of ire among Liberals both those who remain and the ones who will spend today cleaning out a career's worth of work in their offices was the party's green energy policy.

ABC News: Hugh Sando

Many Liberals were mystified by it when it was unveiled, believing it further alienated the party's base and torpedoed their hopes in Collie for years to come, while having no significant subset of voters that it could realistically win.

It scared voters on the right and while some on the left may have liked it, they still voted Labor or Green or so the thinking goes.

But beyond the policy arena, the actual campaign itself was a source of immense frustration for some Liberals.

Some MPs felt Mr Kirkup's conceding defeat with 16 days to go consigned the Liberals to irrelevance and turned off voters, who perceived they had given up.

It has many Liberals questioning whether the move to a first-term opposition leader so close to an election was a mistake.

"The energy policy was a debacle," a shellshocked former Liberal leader Mike Nahan said on the ABC's election night panel.

"And I think in the end you will see his statement that 'we have lost', that we had no chance of winning, just was not right."

Furthermore, the party was so cash-strapped that it was outspent dramatically by Labor. Attack ads targeting Mr Kirkup appeared relentlessly with little response.

ABC News: Tabarak Al Jrood

And Labor used 'dirt files' to great success, forcing the Liberals to defend questionable views espoused by numerous candidates while the Opposition made no in-roads in that space.

But, as much as the now-former MPs who will today start dusting off their resumes if they hadn't already were immensely frustrated by the way the party handled the past five weeks, the problems run much deeper than that.

And they started long before Mr Kirkup was even a parliamentarian.

ABC News: Hugh Sando

Many Liberals believe the current dearth of political talent in their ranks can be attributed in part to the failure to attract and nurture those with ability during the years of the Barnett government.

The question of who the next Liberal premier would be has been a source of fear for conservatives since Christian Porter and Troy Buswell left state politics, not a newfound phenomenon.

The politics, the policies and the people. We've collected all our coverage on the election campaign here.

Then there is the issue of preselection.

The Liberals battled candidate controversies on multiple fronts from one claiming the allegations against Mr Porter were part of some conspiracy related to the state election, to another suggesting a link between 5G and COVID-19.

And those were just the tip of the iceberg.

A significant number of Liberals believe potential quality candidates are choosing not to seek state preselection because there is no realistic chance of success unless they attach themselves to a key party powerbroker.

ABC News: Andrew O'Connor

Winning Liberal preselection in the metropolitan area, without tying yourself to either Nick Goiran or Peter Collier, is pretty unrealistic these days.

Expect to see old Liberal hands demanding urgent party reform in the aftermath of this annihilation, with calls for plebiscite-style preselections and other changes to curtail the influence of powerbrokers.

Most immediately, though, the Liberals need to work out how such a paltry team can hold a politically-dominant Labor government to account while seemingly not even being the official opposition.

Simple tasks like allocating policy portfolios and filling committees will be made extraordinarily difficult by there being so few MPs.

Some MPs believe the Liberals will have no choice but to have coalition discussions with the Nationals, with their only chance of properly holding Labor to account being to work together.

At this stage, it might be David Honey and Libby Mettam flipping a coin to decide who becomes leader although for now, the Liberals have a glimmer of hope that Mr L'Estrange or maybe Bill Marmion could hold on.

ABC News: Gian De Poloni

Whoever gets the job will face the challenge of a lifetime, with the Liberals needing to climb Mount Everest and then some just to make the 2025 election even close to competitive.

As for the departing leader, he will cop plenty of blame from some Liberals for a campaign more than one labelled a "shit show".

But most Liberals admit that the problems run much deeper and will not be easily fixed.

Picking up the pieces from an election night calamity will be a long process as the tiny number of Liberals to survive this bloodbath try to work out how to rebuild a shattered party.

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The WA election has left the Liberals decimated and in the wilderness, facing a long road back - ABC News

Liberal MP Nicolle Flint has conceded her own party could "absolutely" have done more to provide her with support during the "vicious" 2019 election campaign.

Ms Flint, who is the member for the electorate of Boothby in Adelaide's inner-south, recently revealed her intention toquitfederal politics, saying she would not contest the seat at the next election.

The conservative faction MP yesterdaybroke down in tears in Parliament while describing the harassment and stalking she hadendured during her time in politics.

Among the incidents was an act of vandalism before the 2019 election, in which her campaign office was defaced with the word "skank" and other abusive and sexist graffiti.

Supplied

Speaking on ABC Radio Adelaide this morning, Ms Flint repeated her criticisms of political opponents, including Labor, unions, and activist groups including GetUp.

"There is a lot of work we need to do across the board to support women in politics," she said.

"My issues have been the treatment that I received last election through the activities of GetUp, Labor and the unions."

GetUp today vehemently rejected any suggestion it was to blame for the abusive attacks on her office,saying the "harassment experienced by Nicolle Flint" was"abhorrent".

"We conducted a thorough investigation that confirmed that our staff or members were not involved in any of the alleged behaviour levelled against us in this long-running effort to smear our reputation," the organisation today said.

We campaigned in the seat of Boothby and other key seats with hard-right Liberal MPs, but it is simply wrong to characterise our campaign as harassment or misogyny."

When asked by ABC Radio Adelaide host David Bevan, "What about the women in your South Australian branch did they come out and help you?", Ms Flint conceded the SA Liberalsalso had room for improvement.

"David, can I say about the 2019 campaign, no-one was expecting the vicious nature of the campaign, not me, not anybody," Ms Flint responded.

"Could the South Australian division have done more? Absolutely."

Ms Flint said she did receive support from Prime Minister Scott Morrison and Treasurer Josh Frydenberg.

AAP: David Mariuz

Ms Flint recently clashed with South AustralianHuman Services Minister Michelle Lensink, a fellow Liberal, over abortion reform.

Her electorate is held by the Liberals on a margin of just 1.4 per cent, andMs Flint said she would not be reconsidering her move to quit Parliament.

"I won't change my mind, I've made my decision to step down, but what I will be doing is working as closely as I can with the Sex Discrimination Commissioner Kate Jenkins. I'll be an active part of the review [into the culture of Parliament House]," she said.

"I would love to sit down with some of the senior Labor women and chat to them about how we can all take the aggression out of politics.

"We just need to stop this behaviour from ever happening again. We need to keep people safe, and that's precisely what I said to the Parliament last night, and I'm delighted that people are listening."

The ABC has contacted the SA Liberal branch for comment.

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Nicolle Flint admits SA Liberals could have done more to support her during 2019 election - ABC News