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TORONTO -- As affordability becomes a key topic during the federal election campaign for all major parties, the news that the Canadian economy contracted in the second quarter is bad for both the Liberals and the Conservatives, according to pollster Nik Nanos.

On Tuesday, Statistics Canada reported that the economy contracted at an annualized rate of 1.1 per cent between April and June the first quarterly contraction since the first COVID-19 wave lockdowns in 2020. To make matters worse, the agency also estimated another drop in real gross domestic product in July.

The news yesterday that the economy had shrank would not be good for any incumbent government, Nanos said on Wednesdays edition of CTV's Trend Line podcast. The last thing that you want is for the numbers to come out and to suggest that the economy is shrinking.

Nanos said the Liberals called the election when they did because they were hoping to capitalize on good will from the Canadian public for their handling of the pandemic and the supply of COVID-19 vaccines they procured while getting ahead of future concerns about the economy related to the pandemic.

This GDP number is bad for the Liberals, he said. It undermines one of the key pillars that they were hoping would be in place.

This latest news also wont help to restore Canadians faith in the economy, according to Nanos, who said the population is already feeling grumpy about it. He said the latest weekly Bloomberg-Nanos tracking on consumer confidence shows that.

According to the data, 37 per cent of Canadians believe the economy will get stronger (down seven percentage points from four weeks earlier), while 30 per cent believe the economy will get weaker, and about 20 per cent believe there will be no change.

The trend in terms of consumer confidence has been dropping over the last couple of weeks and couple that with a drop or shrinking of the economy and the GDP, it is basically a one-two punch in terms of creating negativity, anxiety and concern among Canadians when it comes to the economy, Nanos said.

And while the shrinking economy spells trouble for the Liberals, Nanos said the Conservatives wont fare much better thanks to their dependence on economic growth in their platform. According to the plan, the Conservatives would be able to balance the budget without any cuts within 10 years.

However, the plan hinges on the assumption that there will be an annual GDP growth of roughly three per cent, which some economists believe is unrealistic, Nanos said.

These GDP numbers dont help [Conservative Leader] Erin OToole because if the economy is shrinking, and your fiscal plan is based on the economy growing, its hard to reconcile those two things, at least for average voters, Nanos said.

OToole will need to defend his platform in order to maintain the mini advantage he has over Liberal Leader Justin Trudeau in Nanos Researchs latest nightly tracking conducted for CTV News and the Globe and Mail, which was released on Wednesday morning.

According to the data, the Conservatives are leading with 33.7 per cent support, followed by the Liberals with 31 per cent, and the NDP with 20.3 per cent. The other parties trail significantly behind with the Bloc Quebecois at 6.8 per cent, the Peoples Party of Canada at 4.1 per cent, and the Greens at 3.5 per cent.

In terms of who Canadians prefer for their next prime minister, Trudeau has a slight lead with 29.2 per cent support, followed by OToole with 28.4 per cent, and NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh at 19.2 per cent. PPC Leader Maxime Bernier has 4.9 per cent support, just ahead of BQ Leader Yves-Francois Blanchet, and Green Leader Annamie Paul.

The economy, and more specifically housing affordability, is also a main topic of concern for Canadians living in the vote-rich Greater Toronto Area, Nanos said.

According to polling data commissioned by CTV News and CP24 that was released on Tuesday, housing is the number one priority for voters living in Toronto and the surrounding area and one that all parties will have to address if they want to win votes there.

More than four out of every 10 residents in the GTA unprompted, which means when they could say whatever they wanted, identify housing as their as their top concern, Nanos said.

What was it that one American strategist said, It's the economy, stupid? Nanos said. That's probably what GTA residents want to say to any politician from any stripe, It's housing, stupid.

And although Toronto and the GTA are traditionally a Liberal stronghold, Nanos said it was interesting that when residents were asked who best understands the issues in their area, it was a three-way tie between Trudeau, OToole, and Singh.

That means that there's also opportunity not just for Erin O'Toole, but for Jagmeet Singh. He's got a good brand. His brand is exceptionally strong among under 35s in the in the GTA and if he can get young people to get out and vote, it can be a bit of a game changer for him, he said.

A national random telephone survey (land- and cellular-line sample using live agents) of 1,200 Canadians is conducted by Nanos Research throughout the campaign over a three-day period. Each evening a new group of 400 eligible voters are interviewed. The daily tracking figures are based on a three-day rolling sample comprising 1,200 interviews. To update the tracking a new day of interviewing Is added and the oldest day dropped. The margin of error for a survey of 1,200 respondents is 2.8 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

The respondent sample is stratified geographically and by gender. The data may be weighted by age according to data from the 2016 Canadian Census administered by Statistics Canada. Percentages reported may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

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Shrinking economy bad news for both Liberals and Conservatives: Nanos - CTV News

Place in This World isnt just a Michael W. Smith song but reality now that the Biden administration and Democrats have equipped the most sophisticated, well-trained and supplied terrorist organization the world has ever seen.

It didnt have to be this way. Former President Donald Trump had our country on the right track. Peace through strength. America is safer when someone like Trump or Ronald Reagan is president. Adversaries fear us. Reagan brought down the Berlin Wall and won the Cold War. Trump was saving our country by repatriating money, lowering taxes, rebuilding the military and securing our border.

In response to Afghanistan, liberals need to do their homework and put aside their hatred and indoctrination before yapping off about something they have no clue about.

Mike Pompeo had negotiated a deal with the Taliban that would have had us out by the end of May with our dignity, respect and lives intact. We would also maintain Bagram Air Base and the special operations base at Jalalabad. A contingent of special operators from Joint Special Operations Command, the UKs Special Air Service and CIAs Special Activities Center would have remained at Jalalabad to guess what fight ISIS-K for the Taliban. Aviation would have stayed on station at Bagram.

Now the Taliban have our helicopters, drones, technology, tactical advantage and more while Biden and everyone who voted against Trump has blood on their hands.

We will not be able to fix this until after we right the ship with the upcoming elections, which I dont believe will go well for liberals and their progressive friends.

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Letter to the editor: Liberals need to do their homework on Afghanistan - Summit Daily News

Liberal Leader Justin Trudeau unveiled his partys platform Wednesday, with more than $78 billion in new spending over the next five years largely focused on health care, child care, and economic recovery.

Of the new funding pledged, approximately $7.4 billion is planned over the next five years for climate initiatives ranging from electric vehicle infrastructure, to energy-efficient retrofits, to a just transition fund.

Then theres the less tangible. The platform is complete with promises to phase out fossil fuel subsidies; develop climate-friendly transportation, procurement, and adaptation strategies; and expand the office of the National Security and Intelligence Adviser into the world of climate change.

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This is the plan thats going to bring Canadians forward to end this pandemic, to invest in growth as we fight climate change and create jobs, and make sure were giving women the opportunity to get back into the workforce by ensuring $10-a-day child care right across the country, Trudeau told reporters.

University-Rosedale incumbent candidate Chrystia Freeland also spoke to the platform, calling it fiscally responsible and highlighting that its 10 or so major planks had been costed by the Parliamentary Budget Office (PBO). She added that while some promises reach out to 2030 and beyond, it was a deliberate choice to cost the policies over five years because thats a government budgeting standard, and there are simply too many variables to confidently say what the countrys fiscal position would be after that.

Its an investment in the green transition, she said. The green transition is a reality in the global economy, and as Canadians, the only choice we have now is: Do we want to be ahead of the curve?

Do we want to build a green economy so we can continue to sell things to other people, or do we want to fall behind?

The platform says Liberals would collaborate with the United States and the European Union on implementing a border carbon adjustment essentially a carbon tariff in order to push emissions down in international trade. There is no solid commitment, but the platform says Liberals would consider border carbon adjustments on imports of steel, cement, aluminum, and other high emission industries.

One competitive advantage Canada has is that its power grids are already relatively clean. The Liberal platform says, if re-elected, it would introduce a clean electricity standard to have a 100 per cent carbon-free power grid by 2035. Moreover, the Liberals are promising to create a pan-Canadian grid council to promote better integration among regional grids. In other words, the council would aim to beef up transmission lines to move hydropower and renewables to regions still using coal, gas, or other fossil fuels to generate electricity.

Our electricity grid is already 83 per cent zero-emission, and what we can do with that is plug it into more things, said Clean Energy Canada executive director Merran Smith. That means connecting the power grid to our mines, battery manufacturing, (and) our auto sector so that we are using our clean electricity to produce low-carbon products for export.

We have a competitive advantage, but we need to build on it and Canada has lots of potential for solar, wind, and other renewable energies, she said.

International Institute for Sustainable Development policy adviser Vanessa Corkal called the platform a positive announcement with caveats.

It's not just about how much money we're spending on climate action, it's also how much money we're spending on things that are counter to climate action, she said.

The platform says a re-elected Liberal government would accelerate our G20 commitment to eliminate fossil fuel subsidies from 2025 to 2023, and develop a plan to phase out public financing of the fossil fuel sector, including from Crown corporations, consistent with our commitment to reach net-zero emissions by 2050.

Corkal called those promises a positive step forward but said actions speak louder than words.

The Liberals have been in power for six years and I would say their progress on fossil fuel subsidies has been quite slow When we did a comparison of all G20 countries, we found that Canada was actually the slowest of the OECD countries to be phasing out support for fossil fuels, she said.

Vancouver North incumbent candidate Jonathan Wilkinson told Canadas National Observer that Canada had committed to phasing out inefficient fossil fuel subsidies as part of its G20 commitment, referring to subsidies that incentivize further fossil fuel exploration.

The platform essentially accelerates the commitments so that we have said that we will be in a position to say that we've eliminated all of those by 2023.

Its not clear how exactly that will be achieved, says Corkal.

In their costing, they've only listed one measure that I can see, which is eliminating flow-through shares for the oil and gas sector, she said. The devil will be in the details.

Selling flow-through shares, like typical shares, is a way for a company to raise money. However, flow-through shares sell for more than typical shares because they offer tax advantages to investors, thereby making it easier for smaller companies to raise money.

If you're drilling a well looking for a resource, you'll either find something or you won't, and if you don't find something then essentially you've lost the value of that well, and so (government) allows for a 100 per cent writeoff of drilling wells for exploration, said Richard Masson, a former oilsands policy adviser to the Alberta government and an executive fellow at the University of Calgarys School of Public Policy.

Masson explained that policy has been in place for decades as a way to help usually Canadian-owned junior oil and gas companies. Essentially, if a company drills a $5-million well and comes up empty-handed, a lot of companies wouldnt have $5 million of taxable income to deduct against, he said.

Government allowed for those expenses to flow from the company through to the shareholders, and then the shareholders, which could be mutual funds, or executive management teams ... they can claim those flow-through expenses on their personal income taxes and reduce their tax burden, Masson explained.

Because that type of share is tax-attractive, that helps those small companies sell shares and raise money to drill wells.

Liberals say eliminating flow-through shares will generate $26 million in new revenue over the next five years. Specifically, Liberals expect $2 million in 2022/23 and $8 million in the years after.

With files from Natasha Bulowski

John Woodside / Local Journalism Initiative / Canada's National Observer

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What's in the Liberals' $78B platform? Plenty of green - National Observer

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Committing to turn your transportation system upside down without yet having tech to manage it economically almost certainly qualifies as a category of derangement

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We are now well past the mid-way point of 2021. (Dont say this column never delivers the facts!) Were having a federal election September 20. The results will probably be known by October 1 earlier if the number of mail-in ballots is less than predicted. Which means that even if the Liberals are returned to government, it will be 2022, and likely well into it, before any real policy gets done.

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I mention this because the Liberal platform says a re-elected Liberal government will require that by 2030 half of all passenger vehicles sold in Canada produce zero emissions, while all must be zero emission by 2035. That gives us eight years for the first target, 13 for the second.

Very helpfully for anyone interested in judging the scale of the challenge (i.e., not Liberal strategists), Statistics Canada produces data on new motor vehicle registrations by vehicle and fuel type, though only since 2017, when there were just over two million new registrations for the year. In 2018 and 2019 there were just under two million. Two million seems to be average.

Last year, which was decidedly not average, there were 1.546 million new registrations. The number for electric-battery vehicles, was 39,036, the most ever, up from 35,523 in 2019, 22,570 in 2018 and 9,079 in 2017. But that 39,036 was only 2.5 per cent of total new registrations. Or one in 40, which is some distance from one in two or, the Liberals 2035 target, one in one.

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According to StatsCan, electric-battery vehicles are the only kind that are truly zero emissions assuming the electricity charged into them is zero emissions, which in many instances it wont be. Hybrids would help the climate cause on cost and convenience terms that more Canadians would be willing to accept but of course many eco-types brook no compromise and fiercely oppose hybrids. The real zealots would outlaw personal vehicles of any kind.

The Liberals target refers to passenger vehicles, while the numbers Ive just given are for all motor vehicles. StatsCan says that last year 28,007 electric-battery passenger cars were registered out of a total of 498,031 such vehicles, which is 5.6 per cent, or one in 18. So thats a little better. But if you look at the average of new passenger-car registrations for 2017-19, its 568,000. To get electric-battery cars up to being half that, you need to increase their annual registrations to 284,000 that is, ten-fold. To get them to the full 568,000, you have to increase their yearly supply 20-fold.

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I do understand that the Americans took only eight years to get to the moon. Though we ourselves still havent been to the moon, our six-year all-out mobilization did help win the Second World War. I have no doubt that if we were in a mortal conflict with a virulent totalitarian regime and our military planners told us that, strange as it might seem, the only way we could possibly achieve victory was to carpet bomb them with functioning electric passenger vehicles, we could re-wire our economy for that task, as we did from 1939-45, and produce as many such projectiles as we needed. (Call it the Mississauga Project.)

But despite the more fevered analogies of environmentalists our current situation isnt at all like 1939-45. My guess is most Canadians are not willing to make the same sacrifices as our parents and grandparents did in defeating Hitler. Electric-battery vehicles do involve sacrifice. They dont have the range of gasoline-powered ones, they cost a lot more and they take longer to refuel, while their batteries are bulkier and heavier than a gas tank. All that may change as technology races ahead. But it hasnt changed yet. Committing to turn your transportation system upside down without yet having the technology to manage that trick economically almost certainly qualifies as a category of derangement.

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Given that many if not most of us will not feel a patriotic impulse to de-commission our gas- or diesel-fuelled vehicles, Canada post-2030 may come to resemble Havana post-1959, where, unable to buy replacements, drivers squeezed decade after decade out of their big-finned, mid-century American Buicks, Chevies and DeSotos. In Havana North well drive our 2020s guzzlers for as long as we can, hoarding spare parts as if they were truffles or gold nuggets unless, as they may, the comrades in Ottawa decide sometime in the 2030s to simply outlaw internal combustion and diesel engines.

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Whats also true is that the passenger vehicle stipulation in the Liberal proposal is a big enough loophole to drive a mini-van, crossover sport vehicle or a pick-up truck through. Theres a longstanding precedent for this kind of escape from regulation. When in the 1970s the U.S. introduced its corporate average fuel efficiency or CAFE standards, pickup trucks faced less stringent requirements than passenger cars. Its no accident that in the decades that followed, pickup trucks went from under 10 per cent of vehicle sales to over half.

In 2020, the number of newly registered vehicles that were not passenger cars was 1.225 million. If the Liberals win, expect that number to rise fast as 2030 approaches.

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William Watson: On the road to Havana The Liberals pig-headed net-zero carpolitik - Financial Post

On Wednesday, actor Naseeruddin Shah had released a video criticising Indian Muslims who seemed elated at the Taliban takeover of Afghanistan. Terming the celebration by Indian Muslims over the Talibans victory as dangerous, Shah stated that every Indian Muslim should ask himself whether he wants a reformed, modern Islam or the barbaric values of past centuries.

Shah even went on to say that his Islam is inspired by Mirza Ghalib, which is non-political and Hindustani Islam has always been different from the Islam that is practised elsewhere and prayed that the Indian version of Islam doesnt change so much that it is no longer recognisable

However, Shah, who is usually a favourite of Indian Islamists and so-called secular-liberals for his anti-Modi stand, suddenly was cancelled. Islamists of all hues and range started condemning Shahs condemnation, asking him not to preach what Islam should or should not be. Apparently, talking about reforms within the religion is not Islamist enough for Islamists. Here are some samples:

Rifat Jawaid of the pro-AAP blog Janta Ka Reporter even went a step ahead and declared Shah as not Muslim enough to speak about Islam, because he is not a practising Muslim and he has no knowledge about some topics.

Jawaid then went ahead and clarified what knowledge he was talking about. As per him, putting geographical tags on Islam is haram. Islam apparently knows no separate kingdoms or regions. Islam remains the same regardless of region. The Caliphate junkies of ISIS would be really proud of him.

The very idea of a Caliphate or global Islamic brotherhood is based upon the idea that Islam itself is the supreme identity and its adherents need not oblige to any other ethnic, regional or cultural identities. ISIS believes in it. The terrorism sponsors of Pakistan believe in it and every other radical who has blown himself up for the sake of Jannah or Ummah believes in it too. Jawaid just explained it in simpler terms.

Jawaid and Naqvi are just two examples from the so-called elite, there are dozens of others who are spewing venom on Naseeruddin Shah, declaring him unfit to issue advice and suggestions, even accusing him of trying to appease the Hindus. Just regular Ummah things on Indian social media.

Swara Bhaskar was cancelled recently too. She was cancelled because she was seen following the Hindu rituals of Grih Pravesh. For a section of secular-liberals, following the rituals of ones own religion, if that religion is Hinduism, is haram. On the contrary, Hindus who openly deride Hinduism, make Gaumutra jokes, eat beef and abuse Hindu Gods, are celebrated instantly.

Any Hindu who praises Islamic values and lifestyle is praised too. No matter how many high-fives Swara had given to Islamists and wokes, no matter how many Gaumutra jokes she had cracked, she was mercilessly cancelled the moment she was seen following Hindu rituals of Grih Pravesh, under the guidance a Hindu priest.

The comments got so heavy that the actress had to compensate her previous post with an explainer, that being Hindus does not necessarily mean being hateful, such is the power of narrative setting.

It is not just Swara and Naseeruddin. Not very long ago, Naseeruddin Shah was seen spewing venom against the government of India in anti-CAA protests, instigating Muslims against a law that had nothing to do with them and did not affect them in any way. He had been peddling the Dara Hua Musalman narrative for years now. And yet, the moment he speaks about reforms, and warns against barbarism spread in the name of Islam, he gets cancelled. It is a mandate, it is an omerta. You follow the strict directive, or you will be cancelled.

Indian, and for that matter even the global Left-liberal intelligentsia is a slave at the feet of Islamists. The very same feminists who cry hoarse over women rights in liberal democracies promptly affirm that Hijab is a choice, the same liberals who proclaim themselves as champions of diversity and inclusion, never dare to speak against homophobic laws in Muslim countries.

For Indian Islamists, Dr APJ Abdul Kalam was not Muslim enough. Sagarika Ghose had called him bomb daddy, scholars had written articles about how the former President and scientist was too-Hindu-friendly, Arfa Khanum Sherwani had asked why is he eulogised and so on.

The same Naseeruddin Shah was hailed and praised when he harped on how the Indian Muslim is the victim of injustice, hatred. He was celebrated when he asked anti-CAA protestors to agitate against the government. But the moment he talks about reforms, he gets promptly cancelled. Despite being a successful, celebrated actor, loved all over the country, Shah had peddled the fake I am afraid for my children narrative and was hailed for it by the same Islamists and liberals who today cancelled him for speaking about reforms.

Recently, IPS officer Najmul Hoda in an article in The Print, explained how the Indian Muslims and liberals are trapped in a toxic relationship. He discusses how the so-called liberals kept Muslims confined to a certain mindset of denial, whitewashing over historical instances and making them believe that they are perpetual victims, thus binding the entire population in a mental state where they actively denounce reforms.

The cancellation of Shah is just an example of the larger reality that is the ugly underbelly of the Global Left. It is my way or the highway. Liberalism in India is about perpetual victimhood peddling, whitewashing and smokescreens.

It was evident when the liberals, interestingly Swara included, were enthusiastically equating the Taliban with Indias democratically elected government. Imran Khan the terrorism sponsor becomes a star for them, Sharjeel Imam and his separatist buddies are painted as victims but just because he is Hindu, Yogi Adityanath is always a villain. In the case of Indian liberals, all their intellect, their thought process, and talks of progressive ideologies lie firmly at the feet of Islamist radicals.

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Liberals can live only as slaves of Islamists, or they will be cancelled: Naseeruddin Shah is an example - OpIndia