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Did you notice anything different about the latest public-opinion poll in Ontario? It showed something we havent seen in many years.

Ever since the Liberals were crushed in the 2018 provincial election and, actually, for a few years before that, too the party has languished in the polls. Yes, Kathleen Wynne won an unexpected majority government in 2014, but it didnt take long for the honeymoon to end. Skyrocketing electricity prices, fatigue with the Liberal brand after 15 years in power, and the usual scandals that cling to governments like barnacles all combined to relegate the Liberals to the basement of popularity. And thats where theyve stayed until now.

The combination of the Liberals doing some things right and the Progressive Conservatives doing a whole lot of things wrong has put the red team back in the game. After three straight years of the PCs being Ontarians most popular choice, recent events have shaken up the state of play.

The latest Innovative Research Group survey has the Liberals at 30 per cent support, the governing Tories at 26 per cent, and the official opposition New Democrats at 23 per cent.

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The poll is the latest of several to confirm that the PCs are listing badly, the Liberals are gaining traction, and the NDP is capturing no more than its usual base of support.

Its no mystery why the Tories are sinking, and we wont waste your time recapping the extraordinary events of the past week. If you missed it all, just Google Ontario parks and policing.Whats unusual is that under normal circumstances, if the government of the day is in trouble, people start kicking the tires on the official opposition to see whether its a viable alternative. That seems not to be happening for the NDP. For a bunch of reasons, disaffected Ontarians are parking their support with the Liberals at the moment, despite having massively rejected them less than three years ago.

Its a curious development. The NDP has focused on all the issues youd expect an opposition to highlight: a lack of paid sick days, a chaotic approach to school openings and closures, confusion around vaccine rollout, and more. Party leader Andrea Horwath is in the legislature and has been holding the government to account during question period. Shes on television pretty much every day, holding news conferences and suggesting policy alternatives. And the Innovative Research Group poll shows her only three points behind Doug Ford as the leader Ontarians think would make the best premier.

And yet, the NDP has dropped 10 points since the last election, residing for the moment in its traditional third-place spot despite being only 23 seats short of forming a majority government of its own.

The Liberals, conversely, have a leader who doesnt have a seat in the legislature, whos spent the past year unable to campaign normally because of the pandemic, and whos had to fundraise and do candidate searches on Zoom, from the discomfort of his dining-room table. Not only that, but with only eight seats, the Liberals arent an officially constituted party at Queens Park and therefore miss out on millions of dollars they could use to hire more staff and do better research on their opponents.

In addition, leader Steven Del Ducas personal polling numbers arent very good. Hes 10 points behind Ford and seven behind Horwath on the question of whod make the better premier.

Having said that, Del Duca does have some things going for him. The public now seems prepared to let the provincial Liberals out of the penalty box, and who knows how much of thefederalLiberals popularity (theyre eight points up on the Conservatives) is shining on their provincial cousins.

Beyond that, Del Duca has improved. Although hes not able to garner support in crowds, his daily Zoom news conferences (at the dining-room table) convey the impression of an experienced politician whos calm and serious (he had two senior cabinet jobs in Wynnes government).

Hes picked up an old trick from former Liberal premier Dalton McGuinty, who, while in opposition, often reminded people that he wanted to be premier. The theory was: keep saying it often enough, and the public will also entertain the idea, even if theyre not quite sold on it yet.

Im running to be premier of Ontario, Del Duca said during last Fridays Zoom. Doug Ford is out of gas and in over his head. People have lost faith in him.

Del Duca has none of Fords populist brio. While hes a competent speaker and genuinely seems to enjoy people, hell be the first to tell you hes not the most charismatic guy out there. He has a monotone way of speaking, wears thick black horn-rimmed glasses, and sports a Yul Brynner look (totally bald, for those of you too young to rememberThe King and I). Its not a look any previous Ontario premier has had.

But unlike the current premier or opposition leader, Del Duca would bring a lot of political experience to the premiers office, which may be why the public is mulling over his credentials at the moment.

Steven Del Duca, this is your moment, said political pundit Scott Reid on last weeksHerle Burlypodcast. Opposition leaders in their wildest dreams have an opportunity to see a premier performing this poorly, to be judged this unworthy, this widely. Youve got this guy on the canvas. Stand in the middle of the ring with your gloves on. Theres been enough good Ford. There hasnt been enough good Steve.

Now is your moment. Get out there, Reid offered.

Before Liberals get too giddy, lets remember: theres still more than 13 months before the next election. Thats a lot of time for the current government to fix what its botched. And in the nearly 154-year history of Ontario in Canada, only three governments have failed to win a second term. Going from third place to first in one election is even rarer; thats happened only twice (Howard Ferguson in 1923, Mike Harris in 1995).

Watching Del Duca navigate these strong historic currents will be one of the more fascinating stories to watch between now and June 2, 2022, the next grand consultation with the people of Ontario.

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Are the Ontario Liberals back? - TVO

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Janice MacKinnon and Jack Mintz: The program will take too long to implement and fail to meet the needs of Canada's diverse workforce

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The federal governments 2021 budget introduces a daycare program, fashioned after Quebecs, as a $10-a-day, 50/50 shared-cost conditional grant program with the provinces. By adopting a conditional grant program that requires a one-size-fits-all approach without recognizing provincial differences in fiscal capacity, the program will take too long to implement and fail to meet the needs of Canadas diverse workforce.

Daycare regulation is a provincial responsibility and the needed policies to achieve the goal of making daycare more affordable and accessible vary across Canada. What works in Quebec might not work in Nova Scotia or Saskatchewan. The success of the federal daycare initiative will depend significantly on how much flexibility the provinces have to design daycare programs that suit their unique needs.

The federal budget goes over the top, claiming the program is one of the most significant actions taken since the North American free trade agreements to create economic opportunities for Canadians. While it is true that daycare spending brings economic benefits by encouraging both parents in a family to work, it will not pay for itself. And the price tag is high: its annual cost is expected to be $18 billion in five years, including the provincial share and indigenous support and excluding any cost related to Quebecs to-be-negotiated package.

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The programs benefits are being exaggerated in three ways. First, the federal government is relying on the Quebec experience, but there is no reason to believe that the increase in employment seen in that province will hold true for the others. The Quebec daycare plan did produce economic benefits, but a number of studies such as one conducted by Pierre Fortin, which estimated that for every dollar spent on daycare the economy grows by $5 have significantly overestimated the benefit.

Second, as pointed out by economists Michael Baker and Kevin Milligan, there are some social and health advantages with competing at-home care that should be quantified in any economic assessment. Third, daycare could provide some important learning benefits, although the best response might be an expansion of full-time junior kindergarten, as some provinces have done.

The federal budget states that, TD Economics has pointed to a range of studies that have shown that for every dollar spent on early childhood education, the broader economy receives between $1.50 and $2.80 in return. Omitted was the qualifier that followed in the same 2012 report: One needs to acknowledge, however, that quantifying these benefits is not an exact science and a large margin of error likely exists. So, the benefit/cost ratio must be interpreted with caution.

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Significant new federal money to help parents with daycare costs is good news, but at issue is the model chosen to spend federal money in an area of provincial jurisdiction. The federal government could have used a model like the Canada child benefit: a federal program that provides support to low-income families to encourage parents to move from welfare to work. This has reduced welfare costs for the provinces, which used the savings on other social programs.

The federal government could subsidize the cost of daycare by providing tax credits or transfers directly to parents. Spaces could be increased by federal subsidies to operators and provinces could focus on enhancing their own daycare offerings.

Instead, the federal government chose a model reminiscent of the 1960s approach to medicare: a universal program, with federal cost sharing available only to provinces that accept the national standards. The model is outdated and rigid.

In terms of costs, why should provinces move from daycare costs of more than $1,000 a month to $10 a day? What if some provinces want to charge more than $10 a day so that they can afford to fund more spaces?

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Why is it good public policy to provide cheap daycare to wealthy Canadians? What if some provinces want to base fee levels on income, so that upper-income people pay more, and the money is used to expand the supply of daycare? Gearing costs to income and providing more supply to others is arguably fairer than the proposed Quebec-based model. Provinces need the flexibility to decide the parental payment structure and level that works best for their jurisdictions.

Flexibility also means subsidizing many kinds of daycares to meet the needs of todays diverse workforce. The budget commits support primarily for the not-for-profit sector, which would leave out private operators, often small female-owned businesses, that provide daycare to todays workforce, which includes many shift workers, more part-time and temporary workers, and people whose daycare needs vary from week to week.

As two female private daycare operators wrote in the Globe and Mail: Failing to enable diverse care models means only middle-class, full-time, permanently employed parents will benefit from a $10/day model. Surely, we do not want to create a two-tiered system where an elite group of parents are fortunate enough to access not-for-profit, $10-a-day daycare, while leaving many others to pay much more for less traditional but equally essential daycare services.

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What is required is compromise and accommodation, especially since provinces are understandably skeptical about the prospect of another federal-provincial cost-sharing program. When medicare was created, the federal government used 50/50 cost sharing to pressure provinces to support the program. Today, even if federal personal tax point transfers are included, provinces pick up two-thirds of medicare costs (without tax points, the federal share is only 21 per cent).

The same budget that introduced the new federal-provincial daycare plan ignored provincial appeals to make a long-term increase in federal transfers for provincial health-care systems that are overburdened with COVID-19 patients and long-term care facilities, which have been devastated during the pandemic.

It would have been simpler and more expedient for the federal government to directly fund daycare costs through grants or tax credits. Probably, to keep the program targeted, a focus on affordability for parents needing to work would have enabled the federal government to save some money for other health-related provincial transfers.

National Post

Janice MacKinnon is a former Saskatchewan minister of social services and Jack Mintz is the presidents fellow at the University of Calgarys School of Public Policy.

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Opinion: If the Liberals really wanted a successful federal daycare program, this one isn't it - National Post

OPINION Walter Mondale was one of the last of the dinosaurs, Midwest liberals who roamed the American plains in the middle of the 20th century.

Mondale, who died April19 at 93, was a protege of a leader of that rapidly vanishing herd, Hubert Horatio Humphrey. Mondale met Humphrey when the energetic young Minneapolis mayor ran for the U.S. Senate in 1948, not realizing he would one day replace him there, and later serve beside him.

Mondale was appointed as Minnesotas attorney general in 1960 and elected to the post two years later. When HHH was elected vice president along with Lyndon Johnson in 1964, Mondale was named to the Senate seat. When he took office in 1965, he met another prairie populist, South Dakota Sen. George McGovern.

Mondale, McGovern and Humphrey, a Wallace, S.D., native who grew up in Huron before moving to Minnesota, were small-town Midwest boys who made good.

Mondales and McGoverns fathers were pastors; Humphreys dad was a druggist. Their sons all tried for the brass ring in American politics, falling just short.

These young, sharp, driven politicians became friends, political allies and, at times, rivals.

After Humphrey sought the White House but lost to Republican Richard Nixon in 1968, he came home to Minnesota, but soon bounced back into politics and was elected to the Senate again in 1970.

Minnesota, with Humphrey and Mondale, and South Dakota, with McGovern and, after the 1972 election, Jim Abourezk, had four of the most liberal senators in the country. Hard to imagine today, but that was the politics of that era.

Three of them sought the White House. Humphrey first tried in 1960 but lost the Democratic nomination to Jack Kennedy. He got the nod in 1968 but lost a narrow race.

In 1972, McGovern and Humphrey were the last two Democrats standing before McGovern took the nomination. But unlike his friend, he was soundly drubbed by Nixon.

Mondale considered a run for the presidency in 1976 but turned it down, saying he didnt want to spend months in Holiday Inns campaigning across the country. Humphrey burned to be president, but Mondale, a much quieter man and candidate, didnt have that same need to win the top job in politics.

Instead, he agreed to be former Georgia Gov. Jimmy Carters running mate. Grits and Fritz, they were dubbed, and they started the 1976 campaign with a massive lead over President Gerald Ford and his running mate, Kansas Sen. Bob Dole.

The Midwest was well-represented in national politics back then.

In fact, from 1964-84, there was a Minnesotan or a South Dakotan Humphrey was both on the Democratic ticket. HHH was the VP candidate in 64 and presidential candidate in 1968. McGovern was atop the ticket in 72, and Mondale was Carters VP in 76 and 80 and the presidential candidate in 1984.

Democrats won just two of those six elections, and have turned away from candidates from the heartland, other than Barack Obama of Illinois in 2008 and 2012. All the other candidates for the top two posts have been from the coasts or the South.

As vice president, Mondale was closely involved, unlike previous VPs, who mostly attended funerals, presided over the Senate as needed and spent a lot of time looking out windows. When he accepted the offer, Mondale asked to be a senior advisor, and not just a figurehead. Carter agreed.

When his longtime friend and ally died, Carter issued a statement saying Mondale was the greatest VP in American history. He certainly set a pattern of involvement and influence that endures to this day.

They were true partners, with Mondale given the right to speak frankly with the Washington outsider. They did many good things for the country, but Carter could not get a handle on inflation, and was unable to free the hostages seized in Iran.

That led to a landslide loss in 1980, as Republican Ronald Reagan brought in an era of conservative politics and government that is only now receding. Mondale upheld the liberal tradition in 1984 when he took on Reagan, but his loss was even worse than Carters had been four years earlier.

Mondales best moment that year was when he turned back Gary Hart for the Democratic nomination. Hart, a handsome, telegenic New Democrat, posed a real challenge to Mondale, whose hair had turned gray, matching his image and reputation. McGovern made his final bid for office that year, but dropped out early, leaving his old friend Fritz and Hart, his 1972 campaign manager, to fight it out.

I was living in Reno then and attended a Democratic caucus in my neighborhood with my friend Ellen. I made a strong argument for Hart, saying McGoverns time had passed and Mondale had no real chance to beat Reagan.

I was surprised when I was elected a delegate to the state convention based on my brief speech, and I later turned it down. So ended my political career.

Mondale was a lifer. He seized on a popular Wendys commercial during a March 1984 debate, saying Harts centrist views were more image than substance.

Im reminded of that ad, Wheres the beef? he said.

The quip stuck, labeling Hart as a candidate who was trying to sell himself like a hamburger. Mondale took the nomination, and made news and history by choosing New York Congresswoman Geraldine Ferraro as his running mate.

It made a splash but it didnt make a difference. Like McGovern a dozen years earlier, Mondale carried just the District of Columbia and a single state, Minnesota, and that was a close call.

McGovern lost South Dakota but carried Massachusetts and D.C. The old friends were able to laugh through the pain later, but it still stung.

I remember when, after I lost my race for president, I went to see George, Mondale told POLITICO in October 2012 after McGoverns death I said, Tell me how long it takes to get over a defeat of this kind. He said, Ill call you when it happens. Thats the kind of guy he was, he was funny.

Mondale had a brief flash of hope in 1984 when Reagan, who later was diagnosed with Alzheimers, appeared unfocused during their first debate. He was at the time the oldest president ever and whispers about his age and ability to perform grew louder.

But at the second debate, Reagan shrugged off the question with one of his most memorable lines.

I will not make agean issue of this campaign, The Gipper said with a typical shrug. I am not going to exploit, for political purposes, my opponents youth and inexperience.

Everyone laughed, including Mondale. The election, for all intents and purposes, wasover.

After that campaign, Mondale returned to Minnesota. to practice law. He resurfaced in 1993 when President Bill Clinton appointed him ambassador to Japan. He held that post until 1997 when he came home, apparently retired from politics.

But like Humphrey, there was an unexpected final chapter. When Minnesota Sen. Paul Wellstone was killed in a plane crash in October 2002, just 11 days before the election. The Minnesota Democrats needed a candidate, and the old warhorse agreed to give it one more run.

Mondale probably would have won, but the Democrats turned a memorial service for Wellstone into a boisterous political rally. It was televised statewide and voters were appalled by the blatant politicking at what should have been a solemn, nonpartisan affair.

Mondale lost to Republican Norm Coleman, ending his political career. He kept a very low profile after that race, instead serving as a mentor to the next generations of Minnesota Democrats.

Mondale was vice president when Humphrey died on Jan. 13, 1978. Humphrey had spent his waning days calling old friends and political rivals, including Nixon, who was an outcast after resigning from president in 1974. Humphrey invited his old friend to the funeral, helping emerge from the shadows.

Mondale acknowledged the grace displayed by his old friend.

He taught us how to live, and finally he taught us how to die, he said.

In his final days, Mondale also called old friends, including President Joe Biden, who was a Senate colleague for four years.

Unlike Humphrey, who was just 66 when he died, Mondale got to live a long, full life. Minnesota has been a Democratic stronghold for decades, and both men played a major role in that.

Sen. Amy Klobuchar, a Minnesota Democrat who ran for president in 2019-20, making a stop in Sioux Falls in December 2019, honored Mondale on Twitter.

On the wall of the Carter Library is a quote of Walter Mondales at the end of their time in office: We told the truth. We obeyed the law. We kept the peace. That pretty much sums up Walter Mondales life and service.

Thats a fitting tribute to a good man. Thanks for your work, Fritz.

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Walter Mondale, one of the last of the 20th century Midwest liberals, will be remembered fondly - Black Hills Pioneer

OTTAWA - With the help of the NDP, Justin Trudeau's minority Liberal government has survived the last of three confidence votes on its massive budget.

The House of Commons approved Monday the government's general budgetary policy by a vote of 178-157.

Liberals were joined by New Democrat MPs in voting for the budget, in accordance with NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh's vow not to trigger an election in the midst of a deadly third wave of COVID-19.

Conservative, Bloc Quebecois and Green MPs voted against the budget.

Votes on the budget are considered confidence matters; had all opposition parties voted against it, the government would have fallen, plunging the country into an election.

The government survived two other confidence votes on the budget last week, on Conservative and Bloc Quebecois amendments to the budget motion.

The budget, introduced last week, commits just over $100 billion in new spending to stimulate the economic recovery, on top of an unprecedented, pandemic-induced deficit of $354 billion in the 2020-21 fiscal year.

The government must eventually introduce a budget implementation bill, which will also be a matter of confidence.

Prime Minister Trudeau last week insisted the big-spending budget is not a launching pad for an election. He would not rule out an election this year, noting that he leads a minority government and saying it will be up to Parliament to decide when the election is.

While that sounded like Trudeau doesn't intend to pull the plug himself on his government, it didn't preclude the possibility that the Liberals could try to orchestrate their defeat at the hands of opposition parties. Nor did it preclude the possibility that Trudeau could at some point claim that a dysfunctional minority Parliament requires him to seek a majority mandate.

Some Liberal insiders believe Trudeau may pull the plug this summer, provided that the pandemic is relatively under control and vaccines are rolling out smoothly.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published April 26, 2021.

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No election yet as Liberal minority government survives third budget confidence vote - CP24 Toronto's Breaking News

OTTAWA -- Justin Trudeau's minority Liberal government has survived the second of three confidence votes on the massive federal budget.

A Conservative amendment was defeated by a vote of 213-120, with Liberals, Bloc Quebecois, New Democrat and Green MPs all voting against it.

The amendment called for the budget to be revised because, the Conservatives claimed, it will add "over half a trillion dollars in new debt that can only be paid through higher job-killing taxes," including more than $100 billion in new spending that the Conservatives dubbed "a re-election fund."

On Wednesday, a Bloc Quebecois sub-amendment was also easily defeated.

The government had informed opposition parties that it would consider both votes to be matters of confidence, meaning the government would fall if either of them passed.

A third opportunity to pass judgment on the budget comes Monday, when the House of Commons will vote on the main motion to approve the government's general budgetary policy.

NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh has promised that his party will prop up the minority government on all budget votes to avoid triggering an election in the midst of a deadly third wave of COVID-19.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published April 22, 2021.

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Minority Liberal government survives second of three confidence votes on budget - CTV News