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Bruce Anderson: While theres a voter-rich battle to their left, Liberals must notice OToole is relaunching the fight for the centre that his predecessors weren't interested in

Bruce Anderson is chairman of Abacus Data and Summa Communications and a partner in Spark Advocacy

Having worked in several national elections, some for the Liberal Party, some for the Progressive Conservative Party, the polling I studied made one thing really clearwhile its common to talk about the base as fundamental to electoral success, its really the swing voters that matter.

Elections in Canada are won or lost by a margin of 1 to 2 million votes, and the trading of these votes among parties can be tricky to see on the surface of polling data, but vital to study below the surface. Vote switching is what campaigns turn onfinding some share you can take from your opponent, figuring how best to win those voters, and then closing the deal.

In our latest Abacus Data work, something caught my eye. The number of Liberal/NDP switcherspeople who say that they will vote for one of these two parties, but if they change their mind it will be a vote for the other oneis a lot bigger than the number of Liberal/Conservative switchers. Today, one fifth (21 per cent) of the electorate indicate their choice will be red or orange. About half as many (9 per cent) say their choice will be Liberal or Conservative.

Historically, this wasnt the case. The deepest pool of swing voters was Liberal/Conservative switchers, a mass of people who lived around the centre of the spectrumpeople who didnt like too much government spending or too little government services, whose progressive instincts were tempered by a frugal mindset, who could feel tempted either by grand ambitions of the Liberal Party or worried that we were getting out over our skis and needed to be more practical.

I think a few things caused the pool of Liberal/Conservative switchers to shrink and probably the thing Im most curious about is whether Erin OToole is making progress in turning that around.

Heres what made the pool shrink in my opinion.

When the Progressive Conservative Party was replaced by the Reform Party, the Canadian Alliance and then the Conservative Party of Canada, most of the campaign energy of that new party went to cementing the foundation rather than building. It was as though self-styled mission conservatives were so relieved at the thought of not having to water down their personal agendas that they paid little attention to how many voters they were pushing away, as long as they could see a path to about 38 or 39 per cent popular vote. Turns out that approach did make some people who would normally consider Conservative their second choice decide the party wasnt for them, and it left the Conservatives working with very thin margin for error if they were going to win an election.

More recently, a great deal of Conservative energy has been poured into brittle criticisms of Justin Trudeau. Ive no doubt it feels good within the Conservative caucus rooms and raises plenty of money from diehard Conservative voters but it hasnt connected with other voters who might be open to the idea of a Conservative government, but dont hate Justin Trudeau. Trudeau haters are mostly a lock for the Conservative Party, they arent going anywhere, especially if they see the prospect of a victory. But a campaign about anger at Trudeau is counterproductive among voters who havent been interested in that argument so far. On that point, 62 per cent of the Liberal/Conservative switchers have a good impression of Trudeau, 42 per cent have a good impression of OToole.

Its early days, but in Erin OToole the Conservatives may have a leader who gets this math, quite possibly because it is the math of his political birthplace in Ontario. The absent voice of Jason Kenney, the relative silence of Pierre Poilievre and some other front benchers, no campaigning with Doug Ford are all things you would do if you wanted to win votes from the Liberal Party and not only excite the base. He saw in Derek Sloan a line that needed drawing and he drew it.

These moves have given the Conservatives more potential to grow. And while straying from base rallying might have driven down support among hard core conservatives, his popularity with them, which had been relatively soft, is firming up.

OTooles platform might fail a stress test on some big issues like climate change and childcare. His caucus includes a substantial number of people who, left to their own devices, would revisit abortion and waffle on the rights of some minority groups. A fascination with China bashing is unlikely to grow support. Tone deaf harangues about vaccines earlier this year helped the Liberal Party more than his own. The Conservative brand is still a heavy burden to carry into a conversation aimed at winning young, urban and suburban centrist voters. But with policies aimed at helping gig economy workersOToole is making a pitch that his recent predecessors werent really into.

For the Liberals, it may have been tempting to focus almost exclusively on the battle on their left flankwhere the number of winnable votes is large and the philosophical differences small. However their path to another victory will require attention to the centre and the efforts by Erin OToole to present his party in a different light.

See the article here:
The Conservatives opportunity and the Liberal imperative - Maclean's

As party leaders head to Montreal to prepare for the French-language debate that will air on Quebecs TVA network on Thursday, each will be touting his platform to woo crucial voters in the province.

Green Party Leader Annamie Paul and Peoples Party of Canada Leader Maxime Bernier havent been invited to participate in the debate.

Bloc Qubcois Leader Yves-Franois Blanchet has been criss-crossing the province since the election call on Aug. 15, hoping to increase his 32 seats in the House of Commons. But one riding he might not have to spend much time in is Rivire-des-Mille-les, in the northern suburbs of Montreal.

The riding was created in 1996 and given its current name two years later. The Bloc held it until the orange wave in 2011, when Laurin Liu took it. Liu was one of five NDP candidates attending McGill University who won that year, making Thomas Mulcair the official opposition leader. She lost the seat in 2015 to Liberal Linda Lapointe.

Four years later, Bloc candidate Luc Desilets defeated Lapointe by 2,620 votes.

Lapointe is back this election, challenging Desilets for the seat. The other candidates include Conservative Marc Duffy-Vincelette, NDP Joseph Hakizimana, the Peoples partys Hans Roker Jr., and the Greens Alex Ware.

According to a new Mainstreet riding poll, Desilets might survive the challenge. If an election were held today, 35 per cent of leaning and decided voters in the riding would vote Bloc, 30 per cent would vote Liberal, and 18 per cent would vote Conservative.

The survey of 436 adults was conducted on Aug. 31 using automated telephone interviews and online samples.

Meanwhile, heading east, the ground game in Fredericton is telling a different story than what polls suggest.

Since 2008, the riding has gone from Conservative to Liberal to Green. Its currently held by Jenica Atwin, who crossed the floor in June to join the Liberal caucus. In 2019, Atwin won the election as a Green with 33.68 per cent of the vote, compared to Conservative Andrea Johnsons 30.38 per cent and incumbent Liberal Matt DeCourceys 27.41 per cent.

Johnson is again running for the Conservatives, while Nicole OByrne, whos taught law at the University of New Brunswick since 2009, is running for the Greens. Shawn Oldenburg is representing the NDP.

This election is closer than what polls suggest, says Thomas Bateman, a political science professor at St. Thomas University in Fredericton, and if Atwin had remained with the Greens, she would have won the seat handily.

Atwin lost the endorsement of the popular Fredericton MLA David Coon, who campaigned hard for her in 2019, Bateman told iPolitics in an email. And the Greens have put up a serious candidate in law prof Nicole OByrne.

A new Mainstreet survey shows that if a federal election were held today, 42 per cent of leaning and decided voters in the riding would vote Liberal, 33 per cent would vote Conservative, 11 per cent the NDP, and the Greens would nab six per cent.

The survey of 307 adults was conducted on Sept.1 using automated telephone interviews and online samples. As this survey used non-probability sampling to collect this sample, a margin of error cant be applied to this sample. However, the margin of error for a probability sample of this size would be +/- 5.6 per cent at the 95 per cent confidence level. Margins of error are higher in each subsample.

This is a three-way race of females, and while the Green party might not be doing well nationally, it has a strong following in Fredericton, said Jamie Gillies, a professor of public policy and communications at St. Thomas University.

The grassroots for the Green party are a real army of volunteers, he said. They fundraise, they work very hard provincially, and they do very well. Federally, this is the best Green riding other than Vancouver Island.

One thing is certain, Gillies added. There will be a female MP representing (Fredericton) after the election.

More from iPolitics

See the original post here:
Bloc and Liberals poised to hold two key ridings - iPolitics.ca

OTTAWA, Aug 25 (Reuters) - Canada's ruling Liberal Party said on Wednesday that if re-elected it would raise corporate taxes on the most profitable banks and insurers to help pay for the cost of the COVID-19 recovery.

The Liberals said they would hike the rate to 18% from 15% on all earnings over C$1 billion ($793 million) and vowed to establish a special dividend, so that those same institutions contribute more. The measures are expected to generate C$2.5 billion per year over four years, starting in 2022/23.

Polls show the Liberals, led by Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, have a slender lead over their Conservative rivals ahead of the Sept. 20 election.

"Given that our banks have posted extraordinarily large profits, have continued to be incredibly successful, including through a pandemic ... we're going to ask them to do a little bit more," Trudeau told a campaign event in British Columbia on the same day that two banks reported big profits.

British Columbia is an influential province, accounting for 42 of the 338 seats in the House of Commons. Polls indicate the Liberals face a fight there from the opposition New Democrats, who also appeal to center-left voters.

The Canadian Bankers Association criticized the news, saying that "singling out specific economic sectors for special taxation is a proven detriment to economic growth".

The Canadian banks index (.GSPTXBA) slipped just 0.6% after the announcement, compared with little change in the Toronto stock benchmark (.GSPTSE), but still ended the day up 0.5% from Tuesday's close.

Maria Khoury, senior vice president for North American financial institutions' credit ratings at DBRS Morningstar, said

the muted reaction in part reflected skepticism over campaign promises and the broad expectation that some tax increases were inevitable following the flood of government support.

Large banks include Royal Bank of Canada (RBC) (RY.TO), Toronto Dominion Bank (TD.TO), Bank of Nova Scotia (Scotiabank) (BNS.TO), Bank of Montreal (BMO) (BMO.TO) and the Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce.

RBC beat analysts' expectations for third-quarter profit on Wednesday after Scotiabank and BMO did the same on Tuesday. read more

Large insurers include Manulife Financial (MFC.TO), Sun Life Financial (SLF.TO), Intact Financial (IFC.TO) and Great-West Lifeco.

($1=1.2617 Canadian dollars)

Additional reporting by Julie Gordon in Ottawa;Editing by Sandra Maler

Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

The rest is here:
Canada's ruling Liberals vow higher taxes on big bank profits to help fund COVID-19 recovery - Reuters

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'Not for one moment do I believe that (Trudeau) has shifted away from Big Oil, in particular, the oilsands,' says SAF Group's Dan Tsubouchi

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CALGARY Liberal leader Justin Trudeaus move to put the Big Six banks in his crosshairs instead of Big Oil, his previous favourite target, is causing some transitory relief in the Calgary oilpatch, but also some anxiety that energy as well as additional sectors may be targeted as the federal election campaign continues.

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Trudeau on Wednesday announced plans to slap large financial institutions, including banks and insurers, with an additional three-per-cent tax on profits of more than $1 billion.

But Dan Tsubouchi, principal and chief market strategist at Calgary-based investment firm SAF Group, said he expects oil and gas executives will suffer additional hits from Liberal rhetoric during the current campaign.

Not for one moment do I believe that he has shifted away from Big Oil, in particular, the oilsands, he said in an email, adding that oil and gas producers have also posted large profits this year and could be in line for the same tax proposed for the banks.

Others in Alberta also believe that the Liberal campaigns focus may shift back to either the energy sector, or to a different sector of the economy, which could put a chill on investment confidence and competitiveness just as the broader economy is trying to recover from the COVID-19 pandemic.

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We are an ongoing project, which is the nation of Canada, were struggling for competitiveness globally and the last thing we should be doing is fighting amongst ourselves, whether it be regions or sectors, said Adam Legge, chief executive of the Business Council of Alberta. Other countries will see that and just fly right by us.

Legge said the temptation to win votes by campaigning against corporate boogeymen in any sector detracts from a more fulsome conversation about policy.

The optimal way to go is to really address the fundamental underlying issues. If its CO2 emissions, then talk about CO2 emissions rather than one sector, he said. If its outsized profits, then talk about competition as opposed to just the banking sector.

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So far, the banks response to Trudeaus election promise has been tepid and mostly channelled through their industry lobby group.

The proposed tax increase would reduce income that would otherwise benefit the majority of Canadians who are bank shareholders, either directly through share ownership or indirectly through pension and mutual funds, including the Canada Pension Plan, the Canadian Bankers Association said in a statement.

Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce chief executive Victor Dodig, on a Thursday earnings call, said, Banks have always been in the crosshairs.

But executives in the energy sector dont believe the banking sector has always been in the crosshairs, noting that Trudeaus last two campaigns singled out oil and gas as his target.

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During the 2019 election campaign, Trudeau caught the attention of English-speaking oil executives in Alberta when he said that he would stand up to Big Oil during the French language television debate.

The 2015 election campaign forced oil and gas executives and workers to deal with a storm of issues, including the merits of oil pipelines such as Energy East and the integrity of the pipeline regulator, said Glen Schmidt, the retired chief executive of oilsands producer Laricina Energy Ltd., which has since been acquired by Canadian Natural Resources Ltd.

In 2015, we certainly saw a change in investment flow, Schmidt said, adding that hes worried that campaigning against specific sectors of the economy damages the countrys reputation for attracting foreign direct investment.

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The outcome is that many companies no longer exist, he said. Theres less employment and less income to all governments.

Tsubouchi said the Liberals may propose new policies targeting the oil and gas industry in an effort to boost flagging polling numbers, which show the Conservative Party closing the gap.

I suspect sooner rather than later, as they need to stop the bleeding, he said. Dont forget, Prime Minister Trudeaus kickoff speech said, We think more ambition on climate change is needed now.'

Others dont expect climate change will play the same major role in the 2021 election as it did in the 2015 and 2019 elections.

Its a change in tone from the Liberals to just focus on the Big Banks, said Duane Bratt, political science professor at Mount Royal University in Calgary, adding that he believes the change is in response to housing affordability becoming a major issue.

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Energy and climate is not as big an issue in this campaign as it was in 2019, he said, pointing out that the other big issues in this campaign are COVID-19, health care and Afghanistan.

Bratt said the Big Six banks, like Big Oil, are an easy target during and attacking both industries was a favourite campaign tactic of late NDP leader Jack Layton, something Trudeau has now emulated.

Whos going to come out and defend big banks? All sorts of companies lost money during COVID, but the banks were not one of them, he said, adding that he expects bankers and finance professionals will try to avoid the spotlight until the election wraps up on Sept. 20.

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However, Trudeaus pledge to slap an additional tax on massive bank profits comes at the end of earnings season for the Big Six, all of which, except for National Bank of Canada, posted net income well in excess of $1 billion in their most recent quarter. National Bank earned $839 million.

CIBC on Thursday reported a quarterly profit of $1.7 billion, while Royal Bank of Canada, the countrys largest bank, on Wednesday announced a record quarterly profit of $4.3 billion.

But National Bank analyst Gabriel Dechaine said the banks will not delay further reports or investor presentations in an effort to avoid attracting more political attention.

I dont think theyre going to make any antagonistic remarks in the public sphere, he said. At most, I think they would provide some argument against a move to increase their taxes and I think the arguments around that would revolve around what they did to support Canadians during the financial crisis by deferring mortgage payments or reducing interest rates on certain products.

With a file from Bloomberg

Email: gmorgan@nationalpost.com | Twitter: geoffreymorgan

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Liberals shift target to Big Banks from Big Oil, but there's little relief in oilpatch - Financial Post

On Tuesday, Liberal leader Justin Trudeau unveiled a multi-billion-dollar housing strategy to help Canadians buy a home at a time when the market is sky high. The plan includes measures to curb the practice of "flipping" homes, the banning of so-called "blind bidding" and a promise to double the first-time homebuyers tax credit.

Part of the plan isto introduce a government-funded rent-to-own program to help renters get on the path to home ownership. The party is promising$1 billion in loans and grants to develop rent-to-own projects with partners from the private, not-for-profit and co-op sectors.

If that sounds familiar to Torontonians that's because it is.

In 2018, former mayoral candidate Jennifer Keesmaat proposed a similar program for the city.

While some are praising the proposalas a positive initiative that helps renters who are struggling with a down payment, others say it caters to a niche group of constituents, and that housing supply is what all parties need to focus on to make cities like Toronto more affordable.

"I was actually really pleased when I heard the [Liberals'] announcement," said Keesmaat, a former businesswoman and chief planner for the City of Toronto.

"Because I think what we're beginning to see in this campaign is housing solutions that actually respond to the magnitude of the challenge that we're faced with."

Themagnitude of the challenge Keesmaat is speaking about is enormous.The average price for all home types combined in the Greater Toronto Area as of last monthis$1,062,256up 12.6 per cent compared to July 2020, according to the latest report from the Toronto Regional Real Estate Board.

At the centre of Keesmaat's 2018 campaign for mayor of Toronto was a municipally run rent-to-own program that involvedthe city dedicating a certain number of new units. The proposal would have allowedrenters to apply to pay monthly instalments that would go toward their down payment onthe property at a price set at the start of the agreement.

The funds to support the program would have been generated by a proposed tax on luxury homes.

"Part of why this policy matters is because it's about recognizing that we all have different housing needs and we also have different housing needs at different stages of our lives. And we need lots of options within that entire housing spectrum " said Keesmat.

Keesmat is now the founder of Markee developments which designs, builds, and runs affordable rental housing and says she would welcome the opportunity to work with the federal governmenton a rent-to-own program.But she acknowledges that planalone won't help address the affordability crisis.

"It means nothing if it isn't tied to a really profound supply initiative that's about driving housing supply."

Other experts agree with Keesmaat that housingsupplyis what all federal parties should be focusing on when it comes to addressingaffordability.

"Given that we have a housing crisis across Canada, we need to think millions of new homes at affordable prices. That would make a dent in bringing housing prices in line with people's incomes," said Murtaza Haider,professor of real estate management and data science at Toronto's Ryerson University.

While Haider says ideaslike rent-to-own programs do open up the market for a small group of people, he believes governments need to think bigger.

"It's much better to have some relief than not. But we have to take much bolder, much bigger, much larger programs to be able to have housing prices and rents much in step with people's incomes."

Others question whether that $1 billion would be better spent on measures to help lower-income individuals or families who can't evenget accessto affordable rental housing.

"It's really rental housing that's the big problem. That's where the government should focus its effort," said Frank Clayton, senior research fellow at the Centrefor Urban Research and Land Development at Ryerson University.

Clayton said he worries initiativeslike a federally run rent-to-own program might increase demand, which would drive up real estate prices if there's no parallel effort to build more housing.

"The focus should be on supply, not demand, because demand will just aggravate what's already happening. And that makes things worse."

The plan laid out by the Liberal Party of Canada doesn't spell out whether the loans and grants under the proposed program would go to the landlord or to the tenant, or whether the majority of the $1 billion pledged would go to big cities like Toronto or Vancouver where housing prices have continued to soar.

It also doesn't say how it would work with municipalities who are responsible for the approval of development projects to ensure rent-to-own projects would actually be built, or how it would encouragecurrent landlords to take part in it.

In response to questions fromCBC Toronto, the Liberal Party of Canada said: "There are a variety of existing rent-to-own models and the financial structure of each can vary, as will federal support."

The party added that it is"confident that by partnering with municipalities and providing substantial federal funding, we will be able to incentivize the building of new rent-to-own units across the country."

So far, the Liberals are the only party formally pledging a rent-to-own program, but when it comes to supply they'repledging to "build, preserve or repair 1.4 million homes in the next four years" by giving cities tools to speed up construction. The party isalso promising to create a $4-billion pool of cash that cities could tap if they help to create "middle-class homes."

The NDP is pledging to create at least 500,000 units of affordable housing in the next 10years, while the Conservatives are pledging to build one million homes over three years, andconvert at least 15 per cent of federal government property into housing among other measures.

The Greens are calling for an expansion of the government's Rapid housing Initiative which creates new affordable housing for vulnerable populations and to build and acquire a minimum of 300,000 units of affordable housing.

See more here:
Liberals say they'll bring in a rent-to-own program. But what will it do for Toronto's housing crisis? - CBC.ca