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The healthcare vote lit a fire that could engulf the Republican House majority. Photograph: Rick Bowmer/AP

As House Republicans reached the vote count needed to pass an unpopular rewrite of a new healthcare law, Democrats chanted derisively. Na na na na, na na na na, they sang, confident Republicans would soon regret their support for the bill. Hey hey hey, goodbye!

Seven years before that, Democrats on the other side of the aisle had cast contentious votes for a healthcare bill with steep political consequences. Subsequently, in the first elections after Barack Obama took office, they lost their majority in the House in a resounding electoral rebuke.

On Thursday, House minority leader Nancy Pelosi, who lost her speakership in 2010 after playing an instrumental role in pushing through the Affordable Care Act, considered the Republican triumph.

They have this vote tattooed on them, she said. This is a scar they carry.

Republicans argued that the greater political risk would have been to do nothing. Failure to deliver on a signature campaign promise after seven years would have demoralized the base heading into an election cycle in which the party of the president usually loses seats.

[Republicans] have this vote tattooed on them. This is a scar they carry.

If we werent able to repeal and replace Obamacare, it would have been a bad midterm for us, said the New York congressman Chris Collins, who voted for the measure, after walking off the floor on Thursday. I think we will at least hold our own if not pick up seats in the midterm.

But soon after House Republicans passed their bill, political winds began to shift. Liberals sprang into action, organizing weekend protests outside Republican offices. Groups raising money to unseat House Republicans reported record-breaking hauls. By Friday morning, the nonpartisan Cook Political Report (CPR) had shifted 20 House races to categories more favorable to Democrats.

David Wasserman, the CPR House editor, called the healthcare bill an unequivocal political risk for dozens of Republicans who supported it and even possibly for those who did not. For example, the representatives Mike Coffman, of Colorado, and Leonard Lance, of New Jersey, both voted against the bill. Both saw their races moved into less safe categories, toss-up and lean R respectively.

The National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC) brushed off such assessments and pointed to the failure of pollsters and analysts to predict Trumps victory over Hillary Clinton in November.

House Republicans fulfilled the promise they made to the American people to repeal and replace Obamacare, an NRCC spokesman, Jesse Hunt, said in an email. [Thursday] marked the beginning of the end for the disastrous law. Let the Beltway prognosticators who predicted a Hillary Clinton landslide stare into their clouded crystal balls once again.

Let the Beltway prognosticators who predicted a Clinton landslide stare into their clouded crystal balls once again

Polls, however, have found that the Republican healthcare plan is woefully unpopular. A Quinnipiac poll released in late March found that just 17% of respondents expressed support while 56% opposed it.

Republicans approved the bill before the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office had time to analyze how much it would cost and how many people might lose coverage if the plan takes effect. An analysis of the first Republican plan, which did not reach the floor of the House, found that 24 million people would lose insurance coverage.

For most members, voting for the bill was probably a smart choice that made them safer, said Liz Mair, a Republican strategist. But for a handful of members, this was a risk that will probably cost them their jobs. The question is whether it is enough to flip the House.

Democrats need to gain 24 seats to win control in November 2018. At the top of their list of targets are 23 Republicans in districts that went for Clinton in November. Fourteen of them supported the healthcare plan.

One of those Republicans, Carlos Curbelo of Florida, issued a taped statement in which he said Thursdays vote was just a step to fixing healthcare and said lawmakers still have a long way to go before they get it right. Clinton won Curbelos district by 16 points.

Democratic organizers said the vote had unleashed a backlash on a scale they had not seen before.

The healthcare vote lit a fire that could engulf the Republican House majority, said Ben Wikler, Washington director of MoveOn.org, a liberal group. Unfortunately, it could also cost tens of millions of Americans their lives if it leads to a rollback of healthcare coverage.

MoveOn.org joined a coalition of liberal groups, including Planned Parenthood, to organize 75 protests targeting House Republicans who supported the bill and senators who will soon take it up. Wikler also pointed to a surge in political donations in the day since the vote.

ActBlue, an online fundraising platform for progressive organizations, set up a campaign in response to the healthcare vote, aiming to raise money for Democrats challenging 24 vulnerable Republicans who supported the repeal plan. In partnership with other liberal organizations, it quickly raised more than $2m.

Clinton issued a tweet that linked to the fundraising page, writing: A shameful failure of policy & morality by GOP today. Fight back on behalf of the millions of families that will be hurt by their actions.

Wikler said House Republicans can also expect to face a wall of outrage from people who feel personally threatened by their vote.

People are looking for any possible way to fight back, he said.

In Texas, Colin Allred, a civil rights attorney and former linebacker with the Tennessee Titans who recently announced a Democratic run to unseat the Republican congressman Pete Sessions, said constituents in the north Dallas district he hopes to represent were reacting in a visceral way to the healthcare vote.

On Thursday night, Allred said, dozens turned up to a coffeehouse campaign event that would typically draw only a handful of constituents.

People were angry, they were scared and they were really shocked at the callousness of this healthcare plan and the way it was done, Allred said.

Sessions, the chairman of the House rules committee, said the bill was imperfect but supported it as a first step toward repealing and replacing what he called a discriminatory system that picks winners, creates losers and oppresses American people. Democrats are targeting his suburban district, which Clinton won by two points in November.

This is where I was born and raised and I have never seen anything comparable to this, Allred said of liberal activism in the area. People here have been waiting a long time for vehicle to express that outrage and Im certain that in 2018 this reaction will not fade.

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Is healthcare vote the tipping point for liberals regaining control of the House? - The Guardian

Liberal activists poured $2 million into progressive political groups immediately following House passage of the Republican bill to partially repeal Obamacare.

Daily Kos, ActBlue and Swing Left announced Friday online contributions from 45,000 small donors that will be used to back Democrats in the 2018 midterms. In the 2010 cycle, Republicans experienced similar activism in response to the passage of President Barack Obama's healthcare overhaul.

"Americans are horrified that congressional Republicans just voted to take away their health care, and that's rekindled real anger anger the Daily Kos community is channeling with record-breaking donations at unheard-of speed," the group's political director, David Nir, said in a statement.

Republicans haven't repealed the Affordable Care Act yet. Their bill, the American Health Care Act, is now in the hands of the Senate. Republicans in that chamber are planning to write their own bill, and might never even put the House bill on the floor. But progressives, energized by opposition to President Trump and his drive to repeal Obamacare, are already mobilizing.

Democrats are hoping voter dissatisfaction with the GOP health care law can lead them back to the House majority next year, much as unhappiness with Obama's health care law helped put the Republicans back in power in 2010. The Democrats need to win 24 seats, net, to take back the majority; their targets include 23 Republicans sitting in districts that Hillary Clinton won in November, plus others where Trump won with less than 50 percent.

Daily Kos, a premier website for liberal activism, said it raised $800,000 from 17,200 donations in less than 24 hours following Thursday's health care vote in the House. Swing Left, a group formed in part by Pod Save America, a new podcast media venture established by former Obama White House aides, said it raised more than $800,000 from nearly 20,000 donors.

ActBlue, a one-stop website that allows donors to channel money to the candidate and group of their choice, said money was given through its portal to over 1,200 separate campaigns, organizations and funds.

Meanwhile, Republicans who voted for the AHCA are getting air cover from American Action Network, the political nonprofit aligned with House Speaker Paul Ryan, R-Wis. On Friday, AAN announced that it was investing $2 million in television advertising in 21 districts to support House Republicans who voted for the bill. Here's the script of the spot:

It's a bold plan to cut the deficit and provide one trillion dollars of job-creating tax relief.

It puts patients and doctors back in charge of health care.

Eliminating Washington's expensive mandates.

Empowering states to reduce health care costs, and

Protecting people with pre-existing conditions.

The Republican health plan provides families with more choices, better coverage, and lower premiums.

Thank [member] for keeping [his] word and fighting for the health care we deserve.

More:
Liberals raise $2 million off GOP healthcare bill - Washington Examiner

VANCOUVER Voters in British Columbia head to the polls on Tuesday as the Liberals aim to cling to power and the New Democrats try to take it back after 16 years in Opposition.

Experts say the emergence of the Green party for the first time in Canadian provincial politics has injected some defining moments into an otherwise ho-hum campaign.

Green Leader Andrew Weaver was in both debates during the month-long campaign with Liberal Leader Christy Clark and the NDPs John Horgan.

Heres what else experts said about the issues that they think have resonated with voters:

Hamish Telford, political science professor at the University of the Fraser Valley:

We have not had a provincial election in Canada where the Green party has played a strong third-party role. Even with Elizabeth May at the federal level she has not got into all the election debates so the Greens make this a very different election in Canada, and certainly in B.C.

Telford said the Liberals have run a hard and cold campaign by repeating the message of lowering taxes, controlling government spending and growing the economy. Theres no real love in this message.

Overall, the NDP is running a better campaign than they did the last time. John Horgan has been a vigorous campaigner in the sense that hes attacking the Liberal record.

Telford said Weaver has presented himself as a credible alternative to the traditional parties. Thats a big stride for a new party in the system.

Telford said Canadas first Green member of a legislature is aiming to gain at least three more seats to get more resources in the house.

Jeanette Ashe, political science professor at Douglas College in New Westminster, B.C.

B.C. is historically a polarized system and the fact that the Greens have done well makes us consider whether or not we might be moving toward a three-party system, Ashe said.

The consequence of the growing popularity of the Greens is that its pushing the other parties to reconsider their environmental policies.

Ashe said the Greens opposition to the doubling of the Kinder Morgan pipeline from Alberta to B.C., a project supported by the Liberals, forced the New Democrats to state their stance against it. For some prospective voters, their position had been unclear.

All the parties are trying to appear more environmentally progressive, and I think thats just in response to the growing popularity of the Green party. The voters are demanding it.

Ashe said gender diversity is increasingly becoming a big factor for political parties around the world in an effort to represent all constituents. When one party leads the way with a diverse slate, as the federal Liberals did in the 2015 election, a contagion effect leads opponents to react, she said.

The NDP said it has the highest number of female candidates, at 51 per cent.

The Greens said 37 per cent of their candidates are women. We recognize that this is not nearly good enough in terms of gender parity, the party said in a statement. This is an issue all parties face as there are systemic barriers to women running for office. We can and we must do better to support more women running with the Greens.

The Liberal party did not respond to requests for information on the percentage of female candidates on its slate, but a count of its candidates suggests 41 per cent are women.

Michael Prince, political science professor at the University of Victoria:

The televised debate is clearly the single-most important political event in terms of making or breaking reputations or shifting moments. For Andrew Weaver, it was a great night. Greens were treated as a co-equal party. In the past, the Greens have been almost an afterthought.

Hes on the side of the angels in terms of deciding not to take any corporate or union donations in the last year, Prince said of Weaver in a province often described as the Wild West because of its lack of strict rules around accepting donations.

I think Andrew Weaver is morphing from a scientist, an academic, into a political performer or a politician. Their platform has matured over the first two or three elections. Theyre clearly not just playing to the environmental file. Theyve got some good policy ideas on education, health care, and housing.

Richard Johnston, political science professor at the University of British Columbia:

This is an election singularly lacking in defining moments, he said, adding the Greens have steadily gained credibility as a viable alternative to the two traditional parties.

I do have a sense that people are really tired of the premier, and that includes the business community. She doesnt have the credibility that (former Liberal premier) Gordon Campbell did. On the other hand, there isnt anything about the NDP that makes them somehow more credible than they have been over the decades.

If I were a New Democrat Id be pretty damn angry about Andrew Weaver, Johnston said. Weaver gets treated as a progressive, and of course there is much in the Green program that is progressive, but it is a kind of soft progressivism that does not address hard questions of poverty, inequality, the workplace, the redistributive elements of taxation, the stuff that goes to class divisions in society.

Follow @CamilleBains1 on Twitter.

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Liberals, NDP forced to notice emerging Green party in BC election - CityNews

It was around Wednesday afternoon that the left-wing activists at Indivisible realized all their plans for the week were shot. Everything we had scheduled was chucked out the window, said Angel Padilla, the groups co-founder and policy director. And everything was refocused on defending the ACA.

Republicans have scheduled a Thursday vote on their bill to repeal and replace the Affordable Care Act. Liberal groups are making a late, escalated effort to block it, one that goes heavy on protesting members of Congress where they live and work.

It might be too little, too late. Progressives spent weeks watching Republicans struggle to get the votes for Speaker Paul Ryans American Health Care Act. And while some have been sounding the alarm about the bills chance at passage for more than a week, others had largely moved onto other priorities, thinking the fight over ACA might have already been won.

Along with MoveOn.org, CREDO, and several other progressive advocacy groups, Indivisible helped organize 29 protests scheduled for Thursday at the home offices of Republican House members expected to vote for the bill.

Hundreds of protesters are also expected to flood the Capitol at 12:30 pm when a floor vote on the bill is scheduled for a rally to save the ACA. Meanwhile, activists across the country expect to make more than 100,000 phone calls to House Republicans offices on Thursday alone, according to a tally based on conversations with six different leading progressive organizations.

We are going to make clear that voting to repeal health care for millions of Americans is a career-ending vote, said Ben Wikler, Washington director of MoveOn.org, in an interview. They will hear from us that there will be a massive political price for shredding the health care of millions of people."

When Ryans first stab at replacing Obamacare failed in March, the lions share of the credit went to the resistance movement that had unexpectedly emerged to defend Barack Obamas signature health care law.

Activists and protesters began showing up at town halls and berating Republicans. Obamacares popularity in polling surged. Op-ed pages brimmed with stories of lives the ACA had saved.

As Voxs Sarah Kliff wrote at the time in detailing Obamacares surprising resilience, House Republicans were inundated everywhere they looked by Obamacare defenders:

People who werent even signed up for Obamacare turned out at raucous town hall meetings, suddenly ready to defend a law that has never been very popular. ...

But once the ACA was actually threatened, things changed. Obamacares popularity went up. More states began fighting to expand Medicaid at the exact moment Republicans wanted to end that program. Obamacare supporters showed up to town halls. They proved that delivering on Obamacare repeal would not be nearly as easy as politicians had expected. It has become a program that millions of Americans rely on and that makes it awfully difficult to roll back.

When GOP leaders pulled back from a vote on the AHCA in March, progressive groups celebrated. Democrats took a photo jumping in unison outside of the Capitol. Millions of Americans have embraced progress and do not want to go back, wrote Faiz Shakir, of the ACLU, after House Republicans abandoned their drive to hold a vote.

Meanwhile, Republicans waited and began amending the bill to court more votes.

As the spotlight shifted to new issues, such as North Korea and tax reform, a few big things changed the dynamic of health care reform. Most importantly, an amendment to allow states to opt out of many Obamacare regulations won converts from the conservative Freedom Caucus.

As the bills defenders grew in numbers, its opponents grew quieter.

Every now and then, a report would emerge suggesting Ryan was getting closer to Obamacare repeal, prompting a flare-up of concern on the left. But the unrelenting stream of stories and protests over the ACA has never really come close to resembling its sustained velocity in February and March.

"Everyone went drinking after the first one [AHCA] failed, and I think we got caught flat-footed," said one Democratic Party operative, speaking on the condition of anonymity, in an interview. The grassroots moved on, and then Republicans moved fast Were all now staring at the abyss."

There was a natural reason for the change it didnt look at all likely to outside observers that Ryan could corral his caucus, and its hard to mobilize people to kill a bill that nobody thinks is alive to begin with. But whether the faded pressure was inevitable or not, it created an opening for Republicans to coalesce around a plan.

Other progressives expressed frustration that, after so many false starts, news reporters appeared to grow desensitized to the possibility of a bill ever gaining close to enough momentum to pass. That, in turn, made it harder for advocacy organizations to generate the same kind of passion among their followers.

"MoveOn and many other groups have been operating in Defcon 5 mode for a week. But most Americans, even progressive activists, weren't aware of the danger. And the media environment that our members live in has made it seem like this moment was almost impossible, said Wikler, of MoveOn, pointing to a series of tweets he wrote on April 28 warning Americans to recognize that AHCA was far more likely than most were recognizing.

Wikler added: "We've been working around the clock and spending money hand over fist for the last week to head this off. But it would take all of five minutes to string together a series of quotes about how TrumpCare was dead in major front page and prime-time stories from the biggest news outlets.

But even if some on the left feel caught off-guard, progressives are mobilizing for one big push Thursday morning before Ryans caucus can head to the floor for a vote.

Weve been expecting this for a while and hammering the Republican offices with phone calls for weeks, said Murshed Zaheed, of CREDO. Were going to be bringing that to another decibel level on Thursday.

CREDO is planning to provide what Zaheed calls aerial cover to by flooding congressional Republicans phone lines with tens of thousands of calls. Scott Dworkin, co-founder of the Dems Against Trump political activism group, said he expects his members to lodge 15,000 calls and emails every hour on Thursday about ACA to House Republicans.

Then there are the plans for targeting 29 different Republicans backing AHCA with protests. Two are expected in the home state of Rep. Fred Upton of Michigan, a high-profile swing-vote on the bill now expected to back it. There will be five protests against Speaker Ryan throughout different sites in his home state of Wisconsin, including in Appleton, Janesville, Racine, Wausau, and Eau Claire.

Congressional liberals will try to aid the effort. On Thursday, Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi sent out a letter to the rest of the House Democratic caucus reiterating the partys plan to throw up full opposition to TrumpCare for depleting Medicare and driving up premiums for seniors.

Pelosi aide Drew Hammill explained House Democrats battle-plan this way: "Message discipline. Keep it simple. Poll tested. Lethal. Tattoo it to their foreheads.

And progressive advocates are reminding their members that passing it through the House is still just the first step Republicans have to take to making their bill into law.

If they ram it through on Thursday, Murshed said, well target the Senate right away to make sure its dead-on-arrival.

More here:
"We got caught flat-footed": liberals rush to stop a health bill they thought was dead - Vox

Sen. Chris Murphy (D., Conn.) / Getty

BY: Charles Fain Lehman May 4, 2017 3:50 pm

The House of Representatives on Thursday voted 217 to 213topass the American Health Care Act, a Republican bill aimed atrepealing Obamacare and replacing it withmore conservative reforms to the country's health care system.

But whileRepublicans rejoiced atthis next step towardsrepeal, manyon the left went on Twitter to lament the impending massacre of thousands, or even millions, of Americans that would result from the AHCA's passage and the potential repeal of Obamacare.

From the halls of Congress, Democratic Sen. Chris Murphy (Conn.)tweeted that after Thursday's vote,the House GOP "will have the death of thousands of [sic] your conscience forever." Murphy subsequently referred to the bill as a "deliberate decision to hurt millions."

The day before the vote, Murphy also insistedthat "thousands will die if this bill becomes law."

Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D., Mass.) was also certain that "people will die," but did not say quite how many.

Similar reactions came from the likes of former Hillary Clinton staffer Matt Ortega, who said that House Republicans "condemn many to death," and Dar'shun Kendrick, a Democratic Georgia State representative, who brought up Hillary Clinton's emails by comparison.

The left-wing media also foresaw the deaths of Americans resulting from the vote.

"House Republicans vote to sentence millions of Americans to death" wasthe headline from Daily Kos, a liberal political site.

The same responses came from several left-leaning journalists, including one who proposed a new Bud Light slogan: "You've just condemned millions of people to death. How about a nice cold Bud Light?"

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Liberals Foresee Thousandsor Even MillionsDying in Wake of AHCA Passage - Washington Free Beacon