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The Sudbury byelection is a tight fight between the NDP and a former New Democrat MP who quit his seat in Ottawa to run for the Liberals, a new poll from Forum Research suggests.

With three weeks until voting day, New Democrat candidate Suzanne Shawbonquit has 42 per cent support while Liberal challenger Glenn Thibeault the citys MP for six years is at 40 per cent, according to the survey of 801 residents conducted Tuesday.

Despite Glenn Thibeaults high profile in this riding . . . it is shaping up to be a horserace between him and Suzanne Shawbonquit, said Forum president Lorne Bozinoff.

Forum says the interactive voice response telephone survey is accurate within three percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

The poll found Thibeault has the best name recognition of the candidates given his high profile as a Member of Parliament.

But Shawbonquit and independent candidate Andrew Olivier a quadriplegic who ran for the Liberals in the June election but was rejected as a candidate so Premier Kathleen Wynne could appoint Thibeault have higher approval ratings with voters.

Thibeaults is 51 per cent while Shawbonquit and Olivier both have the approval of 68 per cent of voters.

However, Olivier is trailing badly in the poll with one per cent support, compared with 13 per cent for Progressive Conservative candidate Paula Peroni and 3 per cent for the Green Partys David Robinson.

New Democrats said privately they need Olivier to capture more of any disgruntled Liberal vote, making it easier for Shawbonquit to pull ahead.

In such a close race for the NDP and Liberals, efforts by the parties to get their voters to the polls on Feb. 5 will be critical, Bozinoff said.

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Sudbury byelection a horserace between NDP and Liberals, poll shows

Noted sociologist Andrew J. Cherlin thinks conservatives and liberals may finally agree they've both been right and wrong about what's driving the decline in U.S. marriages. At stake is stability and the future for children.

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Noted sociologist Andrew J. Cherlin thinks conservatives and liberals may finally agree that they've both been right and wrong when it comes to what's driving the decline in marriage. At stake is family stability and how well American children thrive.

Cherlin, director of Johns Hopkins University's Hopkins Population Center and author of the just-released "Labor's Love Lost: The Rise and Fall of the Working-Class Family in America," says most experts agree college graduates are much more likely to marry than those with less education.

The well-educated are securing jobs that make it possible to support a family, while those with less education struggle to make a livable wage and forge stable family lives. Instead of marrying, the less-educated cohabitate at much higher rates. Meanwhile, for better-educated parents, babies generally arrive after marriage, while less-educated parents often have babies outside of wedlock.

The theory of cause and effect, though, has been hotly contested, a discussion played out regularly in the national press and at academic roundtables because the stakes are very high.

New York Times Upshot editor David Leonhardt captured the core of the contention last week when he wrote that "one of today's most intriguing social-science debates is whether changes in family structure have helped cause the rise in economic inequality or are merely an effect of that rising inequality."

Leonhardt noted the conservative tendency to see "family structure as a cause and inequality as an effect." Liberals have usually viewed income and social inequality as driving the change to family structure.

As a new report from the Center for American Progress notes, fewer than half of American children will grow up living with their two biological parents, and fewer still with married biological parents.

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Marriage decline: Is the end of the 30-year 'family policy war' in sight?

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