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This weeks Liberal Media Scream features the latest demonstration that NBC Meet the Press host Kristen Welker, in the anchor seat for less than a year, has pushed the show further left than Chuck Todd left it.

This Sunday, it was Welker using her trademark practice of beating her point into the ground in demanding another Republican to accept the election results, which she obviously believes will show President Joe Biden reelected.

Her target was Sen. J.D. Vance (R-OH), on former President Donald Trumps short list of running mates.

Can you say unequivocally, unequivocally here and now, that you will accept the results of the 2024 election no matter what they are? she asked, ignoring warnings from the FBI about election hanky panky and some of the problems found in the 2020 ballot casting.

When Vance said hes hoping for a clean election, Welker said he was signaling that the election wont be fair. He fired back that it is the medias blindness to problems that is the threat to the election outcome, not a candidates hope for problem-free elections.

What I think actually undermines peoples confidence in the electoral system is when the media is incurious about obvious examples of problems in our electoral system, Vance said.

From Sundays Meet the Press on NBC:

KRISTEN WELKER: Well, here we are about a week before the Republican convention. Before I let you go, can you say unequivocally, unequivocally here and now, that you will accept the results of the 2024 election no matter what they are?

SEN. J.D. VANCE [R-OH]: So long as its a free and fair election, Kristen, of course we will. We will use constitutional processes to challenge issues if we think there are issues. But if its a free and fair election, we will do what the Constitution requires. We will respect the results. And I expect those results are going to be to reelect Donald Trump.

WELKER: It was a free and fair election in 2020. Donald Trump took his concerns to court. He lost in court. But he still has not conceded. Do you understand that when you refuse to commit unequivocally, that feeds into peoples concerns, skepticism about the nations electoral process?

VANCE: Well, Kristen, I dont agree with that actually. I think that feeding into peoples concerns about our electoral process is that one-half of Americas political segment, they wont support legislation that makes it harder for illegal aliens to vote. They wont support universal voter ID in our elections even though you have to present ID to do almost anything in this country. I think taking peoples concerns seriously about election fraud is the way to reinforce security and confidence in our elections.

WELKER: Yes, senator, its already against the law for noncitizens to vote. But just on that very point, when you, when others refuse to say, Yes, we will accept the election results, do you understand how that undermines peoples confidence in the electoral system?

VANCE: But, Kristen, what I just said is I dont agree with that. What I think actually undermines peoples confidence in the electoral system is when the media is incurious about obvious examples of problems in our electoral system. I think weve got great elections, but a lot of things could be better in certain states. I want to work to make that happen so the American people have greater confidence in their elections. Thats what Ill keep doing.

SEE THE LATEST POLITICAL NEWS AND BUZZ FROM WASHINGTON SECRETS

Brent Baker, vice president of research and publications for the Media Research Center, explains our weekly pick: Welker has managed to make Meet the Press more of a vehicle for the agenda of liberals than it was under Chuck Todd. Every week, it seems, she acts as a thought police operative, demanding Republican guests pay fealty to the Democratic media party line on how elections cannot be questioned, trying to undermine their very legitimacy as elected officials. In Vances case, she distorted his answer to appear the opposite of what it was so she could lecture him about his improper thinking.

Rating: FOUR out of FIVE SCREAMS.

Here is the original post:
Liberal Media Scream: Welker pushes Meet the Press even further left - Washington Examiner

As Prime Minister Justin Trudeau attempts to curry favour with NATO partners during the defence treatys 2024 Washington summit, a new report by the federal budget watchdog shows the Liberals significantly overestimated their defence spending.

On the same day that the NATO meeting began, the Parliamentary Budget Officer released an analysis showing that Canada will miss its NATO spending requirement by more than the Liberals projected in the 2024 budget.

As part of the Liberal governments 2024 federal budget, the party pledged to increase Canadas defence spending to 1.76% of GDP by 2030, still below NATOs 2% threshold.

NATO member nations have agreed to allocate a minimum of 2% of their GDP to annual military expenditure and to ensure that at least 20% of this spending is dedicated to new equipment. Yet time and time again, the Liberal government has not provided a clear path to reach these targets.

Trudeaus revised defence policy pledged $73 billion in military spending over the next 20 years with a prioritization on climate change.

Based on NATOs data, Canada has failed to surpass 1.5% of defence expenditure as a share of GDP every year since 2014, with ebbs and flows seeing increases and decreases over the past decade.

Funding towards the Canadian Armed Forces, the Department of National Defence, and some portions of Veterans Affairs Canada contribute towards the goal.

PBO forecasts that Canadas military expenditures will rise from 1.29% of GDP in 2024-25 to a peak of 1.49% of GDP in 2025-26 before falling and stabilizing at 1.42% by 2029-30. This represents $39.0B in 2024-25 rising to $52.2B in 2029-30, according to the Parliamentary Budget Offices report.

The report said that while the 2% defence expenditure wont be met, the 20% military expenditure requirement will be met and exceeded starting in 2025-26.

The discrepancy between the PBOs budget forecast and the Department of National Defence comes down to two factors, according to the audit.

First, PBOs projection of Major Equipment Expenditures is lower than that of DND since recent experience as well as multiple PBO reports suggest a high likelihood of delays and lapsed appropriations, reads the report. Second, DNDs forecast uses the OECDs outlook for nominal GDP in line with NATOs publications on military expenditures. PBO instead uses its own outlook for nominal GDP, which is broadly similar to the Department of Finances.

While the Department of National Defence projects the GDP defence expenditure to peak at 1.76% in 2029-2030, the PBO predicts a peak of 1.49% in 2025-26.

The departments projections indicate that Canadas military expenditures will peak at $57.8 billion in 2029-30, compared to the PBOs projection of $52.2 billion in 2029-30.

According to NATOs projections for 2024 GDP defence expenditure, Canada remains among the bottom five spenders of NATOs 32 countries.

A bipartisan group of 23 United States Senators previously sent a letter to Trudeau. Urging him to uphold Canadas commitment to spend at least 2% of GDP on defence expenditures.

NATO estimates that the United States will spend 3.38% of its GDP on defence expenditure in 2024.

The NATO summit runs from Jul. 8 to Jul. 11.

More:
Liberals overestimated GDP defence spending projection in 2024 budget: PBO - True North

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Patrons at a London pub react to exit poll results on July 4.MARY TURNER/The New York Times News Service

Re Britains Labour set for sweeping majority in U.K. election as Tories suffer historic defeat (July 5): I do not believe Labour won because it repudiated Jeremy Corbyns democratic-socialist leadership.

Labour doubled its seats despite total votes falling to 9.7 million under centrist Keir Starmer, from 10.3 million in 2019 under Mr. Corbyn. Labour won this time, then, because the Conservative vote fell from nearly 14 million votes in 2019 to 6.8 million.

So Mr. Starmer did not spark much enthusiasm. Voter turnout was Britains lowest in 23 years.

Gordon Laxer Gravenhurst, Ont.

Re Emmanuel Macron has driven a nail in his own political coffin by choosing to call this election (July 8): The election did prove Emmanuel Macron right.

Without the election, the far-right National Rally (RN) would have acted like it had majority support. It doesnt: Little more than 60 per cent of voters chose another party.

This is probably the high-water mark for the RN unless the centre and left fail to address the main RN issue: illegal immigration. It is a top issue most everywhere in the world, including Canada.

The RN can spin the results however it wants. The fact is it came third.

Michael Di Paolo Toronto

In the French election, the leftist and centrist parties agreed to tactically withdraw candidates in some ridings, so that the anti-hard-right vote was not hopelessly split. It worked, and the coalitions handily beat out the far-right.

Something similar should happen in Canada, lest we end up with a Poilievre government. The Liberals and NDP should swallow their pride and amalgamate. Thats pretty much how things have been for the last few years, anyway.

Luke Mastin Toronto

Re Canada failing to protect human rights activists from mining companies operating overseas: UN watchdog (July 2): As a former educator and member of the Grandmothers Advocacy Networks mining justice working group, I am not at all astonished by the United Nations special rapporteurs report about the need for Canada to strengthen legislation and oversight of extractive companies.

For the past few decades, the Canadian government and its ambassadors have made me, as a citizen, complicit in so many environmental and human rights abuses. In turn, I have broken my ethical investment approach by investing in a few stocks for three of the most egregious mining companies with well-documented abuses of local Indigenous peoples. I have done this in the hopes of asking questions at their annual general meetings.

This grandmother would love to leave this mortal coil knowing her grandchildren live in a country that makes ethical choices and cares about the world.

Phyllis Webster Victoria

Re Four EV myths that just wont die (Report on Business, July 2): What about hybrid electric vehicles?

HEVs produce their own electricity. There is no need for a costly rewiring of ones home or fretting about a drained battery.

HEV production does not require rebuilding the auto industry. Automakers estimate it would cost $515-billion to meet 2030 mandates for EVs.

Finally, HEVs make a significant contribution to reducing carbon emissions. Recent models are capable of reducing vehicle carbon emissions by close to 50 per cent. I find few federal or provincial climate policies that can make such a claim.

Douglas Auld Guelph, Ont.

If I buy a seven-year-old used electric vehicle for $18,000, how long will the battery last, what is the expected range as it diminishes and how much are replacement batteries?

Ive never seen the answers. Im left to think that batteries are $15,000 to replace, lasting another seven years and leaving an EV worth only $3,000. Is that cheaper than buying an $18,000 car with an internal combustion engine, driving it for seven years, then selling it for $8,000?

For those who only buy used vehicles, change the oil every 15,000 kilometres and do a brake job every five years, Im still waiting for answers. I do really want to buy an EV.

Jason New Foothills County Alta.

Last August, my wife and I and two friends drove 2,340 kilometres in our Hyundai Ioniq 5 around southern British Columbia.

We had a 440-km range, and the cost of fuel for the whole trip was $5.25. We stayed in accommodations that provided recharging at no extra cost.

In our old car, we would have spent at least $320 for gasoline. This time, we left no trail of pollution behind.

Charles Krebs North Saanich, B.C.

Stating that one can charge an electric vehicle in as little as 30 minutes on a long trip does not recognize certain assumptions: that a charging station is even available, or that one, two or three EVs are in line ahead.

How about a 90-minute break, or longer.

Richard Austin Toronto

Re Hot take: Hormone replacement therapy has a role to play in treating menopause symptoms (July 2): I cant believe this issue is still on the table.

I had my hot flashes some 30 years ago. Common sense told me that because this was a natural occurrence, no treatment was necessary.

At the time, hormone replacement therapy was so popular that my doctor tried to persuade me to take it, even though I did not make an appointment for such and I did not complain about hot flashes. When I said no, she said she would speak to me again about it the next time I saw her. I changed doctors.

Today I may not walk as quickly as I did decades ago, and I may not have the stamina I did then. However, I have no intention of seeking treatment. I consider it a natural occurrence for someone my age.

Im feeling fine.

Cassandra King Annapolis Royal, N.S.

As a retired registered nurse and health advocate for women approaching menopause, I am grateful there is a chance for a quality life without the adverse effects of estrogen depletion.

There are many positive effects from long-term hormone replacement therapy. Let our daughters enjoy their emotionally and physically supported health while aging.

My 98-year-old mother had the benefit of HRT since the 1960s and she never complained of an ache or pain. She had a strong heart and bones, slept well and functioned as a widow enjoying life.

Just take care of your teeth.

Anne Fraser The Blue Mountains, Ont.

Letters to the Editor should be exclusive to The Globe and Mail. Include your name, address and daytime phone number. Keep letters to 150 words or fewer. Letters may be edited for length and clarity. To submit a letter by e-mail, click here: letters@globeandmail.com

See original here:
Letters to the editor: The Liberals and NDP should swallow their pride and amalgamate. Election lessons from France and Britain, plus other letters to...

ITS FRIDAY. Playbook colleague Nick Vinocur will be with you as usual on Monday.

MENAGERIE TROIS: The far-right Slovak MEP Miroslav Radaovsk, who in April released a dove in the Strasbourg hemicycle in a Moscow-flavored call for peace, keeps three pet birds in his parliamentary office in Brussels, he told Playbook.

UNWELCOME VILLAGE: The far-left faction in the European Parliament has issued safety advice to staff after incidents in which angry individuals got riled up about a cardboard Free Palestine sign on display at its stand at the so-called Welcome Village for new MEPs. One woman would only stop when our MEP [Marc] Botenga arrived and told her to leave, she was banging on [at] my colleagues for 15 minutes, a spokesperson said.

DONALD ON DONALDS: Polish PM Donald Tusk paid tribute to the late actor Donald Sutherland as the best of all Donalds. His least favorite? Its not Donald Duck.

IRATXE RUNNING: Socialists and Democrats President Iratxe Garca, an MEP since 2004, will stand again as group leader, a spokesperson said. And shell almost certainly run unopposed. Playbook hears the Italians have backed off and the weakened German Social Democrats wont challenge either. Garca is rumored also to have an eye on the Parliament presidency between 2024 and 2026.

**A message from Full Beam Media: To all new MEPs: congratulations, you inherit a remarkable legacy. A clear majority of voters want Europe to look to the centre - a Focaldata poll conducted on EU election week shows. Civil society is asking: Stand for Europe's values. Dont let far-right forces shape our destiny.**

RUTTE AND MACRONS EU PROJECT FACES RECKONING: Unforgivable, was how one of French President Emmanuel Macrons most senior MEPs last month described their Dutch liberal allies leap into bed with Geert Wilders. Renew Europe Chair Valrie Hayer threatened to expel them the natural conclusion of her predecessor Stphane Sjourn telling journalists for years that Renew were the only real bulwark against the far right in the EU.

And then? Nothing. After a crushing election, Hayer fudged it, and now with Renew eclipsed by the hard-right ECR group, the pragmatists who want to keep the groups numbers from collapsing further are winning. Renew survives, but at what cost?

Strategic ambiguity: At home, Macron has done the opposite of Mark Ruttes VVD party and risked it all to combat the far right. But in Brussels, his MEPs sit with those who opened the door to them.

Hayer on the way down: When Playbook spotted Hayer coming out of a meeting with other group leaders and Council President Charles Michel in Parliament on Thursday, she urgently pressed a button to call an elevator and descended without answering questions from the gathering journalists. She could face a challenge for the group leadership next week, potentially terminating the French grip on Renew.

Emmanuel Macr-off: Macrons stuttering Renew project in the European Parliament is in some ways a foreshadowing of the process accelerating in the French National Assembly: Instead of obliterating the center-left and center-right in the EP and ruling as kingmakers, as they managed for a time, Renew MEPs deeply divided among themselves now risk being reduced to relative serfdom, summoned by others for key votes but never indispensable.

Volts shock: After dropping from third- to fourth-largest group, Renew triumphantly announced the addition of a single new MEP to its grouping only for the five MEPs it had been negotiating with from Volt to say they preferred the Greens. Volt cast aspersions on Renews credibility on fighting right-wing populists, pointing out that the populist Czech former PM Andrej Babi is a Renew member.In fact, Babi only has three MEPs fewer than Macron now.

Renew, a va: At next weeks European Council summit, the liberals could nab a top job for Estonian PM Kaja Kallas, but there will also be a valedictory vibe in the air as Rutte bids farewell to EU summits after 14 years as the Dutch PM and heads north to NATO. For all his smiles, culinary metaphors and insistence that Renew a va, Macron is now damaged goods, and so is the group, which will have fewer choice jobs in Parliament if its still in fourth place in a couple of weeks.

And it could get worse. ECR Co-Chair Nicola Procaccini told reporters: We are talking with some other delegations.

Renew-new? There is so little glue holding it together, said outgoing Renew MEP Sophie in t Veld. I hope that means there is going to be an opportunity to create a truly liberal progressive pro-European centrist group when the whole thing falls apart.

Can kicked: Last night Euronews scooped that the liberals wont kick out the Dutch but will send observers to the Netherlands to find out what they already know about the VVDs coalition with Wilders. Will it be debated in Vilnius, where the liberals head for their annual council meeting today?

For-Guetta-bout it: And what about the Macron ally, Bernard Guetta, who characterized the Dutch move as unforgivable? Its obviously a bit of an artificial idea but its not a bad idea to want to wait and reflect before getting into a big argument, Guetta said over the phone.

We cant all Guetta-long: Today in all the political groups without exception, people with different visions cohabit. Its true in the EPP, its true with the Social Democrats, its true in Renew. And its not more true in Renew than elsewhere. Its the same, Guetta said.

Playbook fun fact: Bernard is the half-brother of French DJ David Guetta.

TOP QUESTIONS, TOP ANSWERS: The week between Mondays inconclusive top EU jobs summit and the EU leaders meeting next week raises a lot of questions: Will Ursula von der Leyen make it over the line? What does Giorgia Meloni want? Will eastern member countries be disappointed? Barbara Moens and Jacopo Barigazzi answer them here.

WHAT GREENS ARE THINKING WHILE EPP IGNORES THEM: Until now, no, was how Green veteran Philippe Lamberts answered my colleague Elisa Brans question about whether the EPP had shown any willingness to invite them into the coalition needed to elect the next Commission president, at an event organized by EU Changer last night. But were not there yet, he added.

Inside Manfreds mind: Lamberts said he figured EPP chief Manfred Weber would think it strange for the new von der Leyen majority to shift to the left when Parliament shifts right. One can understand the argument, he said, cautioning too that the Greens votes if sought wont come for free.

RUTTE GETS NUKES AND PROBLEMS: When Mark Rutte moves into his office at NATO, he wont get much of a honeymoon period, from dealing with the potential return of Donald Trump to the White House to pushing allies to pay more into the defense budget. Stuart Lau outlines Ruttes five challenges here. Meanwhile, Miles Herszenhorn has the details of how NATOs hopes to Trump-proof the alliance via Rutte could backfire.

OMBUDSMAN CAMPAIGN KICKS OFF: Jonas Grimheden, a Swede heading Frontexs fundamental rights office, wants to use his experience with border management to springboard a campaign to be the EU institutions in-house watchdog, Sarah Wheaton emails in to report. MEPs will choose a successor to European Ombudsman Emily OReilly in December, and Grimheden is the first to raise his hand for a race thats likely to draw candidates from civil society and legal circles.

WANNABE MEMBERS JOSTLE AS HUNGARY TAKES OVER: Countries seeking EU membership are lining up for an intense set of negotiations in the final week before Hungary takes over the presidency of the EU.

Big meets: EU ministers will today pave the way for high-stakes political meetings on June 25 in Luxembourg to kick off accession talks with Ukraine and Moldova. On June 26, Montenegro will hold another intergovernmental conference (as these meetings are known in EU jargon) in Brussels to advance its accession process.

Under the radar: Low-key but firmly pro-EU, Montenegro, the smallest Western Balkans country, is making swift progress on its aim to join the club by 2028. Despite that, the Montenegro most talked about in Brussels is probably Portugals new prime minister Lus.

Buzz lacking: I feel that there hasnt been enough buzz in this town about what we feel is the biggest accomplishment in EU enlargement policy of the outgoing institutions, Montenegro (the country) Ambassador to the EU Petar Markovic told Playbook. I believe Budapest and the commissioner from Hungary have equally realized that as a presidency they can achieve a lot with Montenegro. Theyve been very cooperative and ready to help.

Not everyone feels that way: Moldovas biggest champion in the European Parliament, Romanian EPP lawmaker Siegfried Murean, on Thursday slammed Hungarys Commissioner Olivr Vrhelyi, who has been in charge of enlargement since 2019. I think Hungary should not continue to significantly influence the EU enlargement policy, he said at a press conference, arguing Hungary should not get the same portfolio in the next Commission. I hope this mistake will not be repeated by the institutions of the Union for the next five years, Murean said.

BACK TO UKRAINE: The U.S. told Kyiv it can use American-supplied weapons to hit any Russian forces attacking from across the border not just those in the region near Kharkiv, our Stateside colleagues report.

US AMBASSADOR CHALLENGES ORBN ON LGBTQ+ RIGHTS: Nearly 1,000 guests have been invited to the residency of the U.S. Ambassador to Hungary David Pressman this weekend for a picnic celebrating LGBTQ+ values, in an unmistakable message to Viktor Orbns conservative government: Stop being nasty to those who arent straight.

Budapest chill: In an interview with my colleague Stuart Lau, Pressman, a prominent gay diplomat and human rights advocate, described the situation in Budapest as very difficult.

He listed the problems: This year, we have seen museum exhibits cordoned off with rope; bookstores fined for openly selling books with gay characters; museum directors fired for displaying internationally acclaimed photojournalists work that happened to show gay people; government media targeting gay Hungarians as pedophiles when they speak up and express a view that disagrees with their government.

Not getting better: Without going into detail about his conversation with local officials, Pressman said: The United States is not satisfied with the Hungarian governments response to serious concerns expressed by the United States and our partners and allies about the deteriorating human rights situation for LGBT people in Hungary. He said he had invited Hungarian officials to attend his picnic will they dare show up?

HAPPENING TODAY ORBN IN BERLIN: Orbn will visit German Chancellor Olaf Scholz this afternoon, to discuss his countrys EU presidency. The reception the Hungarian PM will get will be decidedly frosty, our Berlin Playbook colleagues report: there will be no military honors, and no press conference.

WILL HUNGARY SANCTION SANCTIONS? The EU approved its 14th Russian sanctions package this week but that could be the final squeeze for a good six months, as Russia-friendly Hungary takes over the EUs rotating presidency, Camille Gijs reports. Fresh sanctions on Putins ally Belarus are unfinished, and will probably be handed off to Budapest, which is likely to stall progress for the rest of 2024.

THE EUS WTF MOMENT: This weeks EU Confidential podcast considers the MEGA weird flip in the EUs balance of power. Reminder: Hungarys slogan for its EU presidency is Make Europe Great Again. Our reporters delve into the latest on the top jobs race and the upheaval in German politics. Host Sarah Wheaton is also joined by Polityka Insights Andrzej Bobiski and POLITICOs Jan Cienski for a look at the triumphant return of Donald Tusk in Poland. Listen here.

ECR DEMANDS APOLOGY FROM SOCIALISTS: Giorgia Melonis most senior MEP Nicola Procaccini said he would withdraw legal action he has started against the Socialists President Iratxe Garca if she says sorry. (Playbook summarized the beef over Garcas allegation Procaccini had been caught by undercover journalists doing a fascist salute here).

In a tight spot: Theres no picture showing me doing the so-called fascist salute because Ive never done it in my entire life, Procaccini told huddled journalists on the sixth floor of the Parliaments Paul Henri-Spaak building on Thursday. The Italian said someone unknown to him squeezed my arm and insisted that even if it resembled a gladiators salute, in which people grab each others forearms, it was unintentional and he was unaware of it even being a thing.

Procaccini also said Fanpage, the Italian site that released the footage, did not accuse him of doing a fascist salute something he condemned others for doing in the video. What Fanpage says: The gestures, seeing the moving images, are quite evident.

Hey, thats no way to say hello: Garca said she wont stop denouncing fascist attitudes and told Procaccini he is trying todistract from denouncing what should be denounced, which is what appears in the documentary, according to her spokesperson.

READY, SET, HIRE! Assistants in the European Parliament are racing to meet a deadline today to find an MEP to hire them. Only by getting a contract sorted today can they ensure seamless administrative passage into the next mandate. The groups that took big losses, such as Renew and the Greens, are said to be particularly competitive.

Playbook job center: Since mentioning this on X, Playbook has received CVs from APAs looking for new MEPs. Alas, Playbook is not a job agency. But here are some anonymized highlights that give a flavor of the job market: APA, 9 years of experience looking for a Member. No harassers, said one. I have a hard-working, energetic profile with managing experience (budget and personnel), said another.

Tara Hadviger, the assistant for Tiemo Wlken (Germany, S&D) who runs a committee representing assistants, told Playbook she was launching a database of 300 affected assistants. This database of experienced assistants ready to be recruited for the new term will be an offer to the new incoming MEP, searching for a team. MEPs can email here to signal their interest.

**As the U.K. gears up for a general election on July 4, stay on top of the latest news, polls and key players to watch. Read all about it here.**

1. Are Israel and Hezbollah about to square up? Jamie Dettmer considers the risk of an expanding conflict in the Middle East.

2. French women voters are swinging sharply to the far right, report Hanne Cokelaere and Victor Goury-Laffont.

3. Why Washington is waiting on Super Mario Draghi, by Victoria Guida.

4. Meet Germanys Lord of the Drones, by Gian Volpicelli.

5. Former U.S. President Barack Obamas one-time campaign chief Jim Messina has some advice for Emmanuel Macron on this weeks Power Play podcast.

Employment, Social Policy, Health and Consumer Affairs Council (Health) in Luxembourg. Arrivals and doorsteps at 9 a.m. press conference at 3.40 p.m. Watch.

Commission President Ursula von der Leyen participates in the strategic dialogue on the future of EU agriculture; attends the ceremony for the presentation of the letters of credence of third countries ambassadors.

High Representative Josep Borrell is in Austria; travels to Wachau for the annual Europa Forum, where he will receive the Dr. Alois Mock Europe Prize and hold bilateral meetings with Western Balkans representatives.

Economic and Financial Affairs Council in Luxembourg; doorstep Belgian presidency at 7.45 a.m. arrivals and doorsteps at 9 a.m. press conference at 2 p.m. Watch.

Jobs Commissioner Nicolas Schmit is in Luxembourg, where he participates in a working lunch with EU officials.

Internal Market Commissioner Thierry Breton is in Nicosia, Cyprus; meets Cyprus Energy Minister George Papanastasiou, Defense Minister Vasilis Palmas and President Nikos Christodoulides.

German President Frank-Walter Steinmeier is in Bruges, where he will give a speech at the closing ceremony of the College of Europe at 3.10 p.m.

European Economic and Social Committee President Oliver Rpke is in Lisbon, Portugal, where he meets former Prime Minister of Portugal Antnio Costa, Secretary of State for Labor Adriano Rafael Moreira, Secretary-General of the Socialist Party Pedro Nuno Santos, and former Minister for Labor Ana Mendes Godinho.

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz receives Hungarys Prime Minister Viktor Orbn in Berlin at 4:30 p.m.

WEATHER: High of 20C, rainy.

FOOTBALL DIPLOMACY: Spotted, proudly watching Slovenias Euro 2024 match against Serbia in Munich: Ljubljanas Foreign Minister Tanja Fajon, wearing the teams white jersey, alongside her German counterpart, Annalena Baerbock. The game finished on 1-1 after the Serbs equalized in stoppage time. Baerbock shared a selfie of the pair on X with the caption: United by football home game for Europe.

In other Euro 2024 results on Thursday, England drew 1-1 with Denmark in Group C, while Spain beat Italy 1-0 in Group B.

Euros fixtures today: In Group E, Slovakia plays Ukraine at 3 p.m.; in Group D, Poland faces Austria at 6 p.m. and the Netherlands plays France at 9 p.m.

SPOTTED AGAIN: Maltese Labor Party MEP Alfred Sant enjoying a beer on his own in the Parliaments Mickey Mouse bar (as he was on Wednesday). This time it was 12:30 p.m. and he was reading a German newspaper, though.

NEW JOB: Jan Knutsson, Swedens state secretary for foreign affairs, has been appointed its ambassador to NATO. He will take up the position in the fall.

FRIDAY FUNNY: Its been a bad week for EU decision-making but a good one for trolling and the War on Jargon, writes Paul Dallison in his latest Declassified humor column.

WHERE TO EAT OUT: POLITICOs Saga Ringmar reviews Mili , a Chinese restaurant offering unabashedly traditional Sichuan dishes in Ixelles. If you cant handle spicy food, beware.

WHAT DO TO THIS WEEKEND: The Alliance Festivaal features a mix of musical genres from experimental techno to hardcore punk at Brasserie Illegaal in Forest on Friday and Saturday. Tonights lineup starts at 6 p.m.

BIRTHDAYS: Former MEP Helga Trpel; French Senator and former MEP Alain Cadec; writer George Jahn; U.S. whistleblower Edward Snowden; U.K.s Prince William turns 42; former President of Slovakia Zuzana aputov; Jaroslav Zajek, director of the foreign policy department at the office of the Czech president; Jos Rodrigues de Almeida from Portugals mission to the EU; Joko Widodo, president of Indonesia.

CELEBRATING SATURDAY: MEP Jens Geier; former MEPs Martin Edward Daubney and Krisztina Morvai; Kinda Mohamadieh at the Third World Network; Honey Kohan from BirdLife Europe and Central Asia; SWIFTs Sophia Lyscom; ServiceNows Fabrizio Porrino; Estonian politician Urmas Reinsalu; Geoffrey Harris, a former European Parliament official; Belgian politician Willem-Frederik Schiltz; POLITICOs Riccardo Dugulin; European Parliaments Bruno Dias Pinheiro.

CELEBRATING SUNDAY: Former MEP Isabella De Monte; Tescos Layla Bakker; European Commissions Paulina Dejmek Hack; POLITICOs Kate Day, Ali Walker and Etienne Bauvir; former Greek PM Costas Simitis; One Policy Place Co-Founder Luisa Frumenzi; U.K.s mission to the EU deputy spokesperson John Brunskill.

THANKS TO: Sarah Wheaton, Stuart Lau, Camille Gijs, Elisa Bran, Hans von der Burchard, Playbook editor Alex Spence, reporter ejla Ahmatovi and producer Dato Parulava.

**A message from Full Beam Media: A clear majority of voters want Europe to look to the centre - as a Focaldata poll conducted on EU election week shows.Letting the far-right pull the EUs strings is a dangerous game. Recent campaigns lay bare their true nature.Anti-democratic nostalgia is making a comeback. In Italy, Melonis party founder Ignazio La Russa even said we are all heirs of the Duce. Meloni herself failed to condemn fascist salutes by members of her partys youth arm. Far-right parties run disinformation campaigns, like the secret troll factory uncovered by Swedish TV. Russian influence remains a concern. Police are investigating payments to AfD staff at the European Parliament. In France, Le Pen received a large loan from a Russian bank in 2013. Since then, Le Pen and her party members have repeatedly voiced support for the Kremlin. New MEPs and European leaders: Civil society is asking. Dont let far-right forces shape our destiny. Our common future depends on it.**

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Europe's liberals flip-flop on the far right - POLITICO Europe

Labour leader Keir Starmer and Liberal Democrat leader Ed Davey had what looked like a political strategy meeting when they were sitting together in Westminster Abbey for the Coronation of King Charles. This produced what appears to be a tacit agreement between the two parties to campaign against the Conservatives but not against each other.

A tacit agreement makes a great deal of sense in 2024. In the 2019 general election, the Liberal Democrats came second to the Conservatives in 80 seats and second to Labour in only nine seats. They werent much of a threat to Labour. If we look at the 11 seats won by the Liberal Democrats last time, the Conservatives were in second place in seven of them, with Labour second in none. Labour was not much of a threat to them either.

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But how is this arrangement affected by the surge in support for Reform? We can examine this by looking at the electoral battleground using two scenarios.

The first looks at a plausible swing to Labour and the Liberal Democrats in the absence of a Reform surge. The second looks at what might happen given that Nigel Farages party is now neck and neck with the Conservatives in voting intentions according to a recent YouGov poll.

Scenario one is a plausible sequence of events relating to Labour and Liberal Democrat seat gains across the regions of the country in the absence of a Reform surge. It lists the number of marginal seats in which Labour and the Liberal Democrats came second in 2019, and are therefore in the strongest position to defeat the Conservatives in 2024. In this scenario, a marginal seat is defined as the Conservative winner having a lead of 10% or less in the vote over their rivals.

In total, Labour was in second place in 56 of these marginal seat, and the Liberal Democrats in 15. When it comes to comparisons by regions, Labour dominated in the East Midlands, the north-east, the north-west, Scotland, Wales, the West Midlands and Yorkshire and Humberside. An electoral pact in these regions would be of little use to either party. But there are prospects for a deal in the east of England, London, the south-east and the south-west.

2019 Conservative Seats with a 10% Lead over Labour/Lib Dems

If we look at the case of London in the chart, then given the increase in support for the two parties in the polls, they have a good chance of winning in all seven of the seats where they are in second place. To clarify, Labour came second in the marginal seats of Chingford and Wood Green, Chipping Barnet, Hendon, and in Kensington in the 2019 election. The Liberal Democrats came second in Carshalton and Wallington, the City of Westminster, and in Wimbledon.

All seven seats are ripe to be taken by the two parties but the chances of this happening are increased by a tacit agreement in which Labour puts up a token candidate in the potential Liberal Democrat wins and the Liberal Democrats do the same in the potential Labour wins. This tacit agreement should be kept secret of course otherwise it would be weaponised by the Conservatives.

The assumption that marginal seats are defined as Conservative seats with a lead of up to 10% ahead of Labour and the Liberal Democrats in 2019 has been overturned by the rise in support for the Reform party. Seats with what were once considered healthy majorities are at risk.

In the last election, Nigel Farage withdrew Reform candidates (then standing under the banner of the Brexit Party) from Conservative seats with strong Brexit supporting MPs and fielded only 275 candidates altogether. This means that the party was not a real threat to the Tories in 2019.

This year, however, Reform is standing candidates in the vast majority of constituencies, making the Tories much more vulnerable. The YouGov poll which put Reform in the lead shows that 32% of 2019 Conservative voters have now switched to Reform. Only 6% of Labour voters have switched to Reform and only 3% of Liberal Democrats so the Reform surge has shifted the battleground significantly in favour of both parties.

In the second scenario, we assume that Labour and the Liberal Democrats threaten the Tories in seats won by the party with up to a 20% lead over their rivals.

In seats falling into this category, Labour was in second place in 117 seats and the Liberal Democrats in 29. Labour was still dominant in the East Midlands, the north-west, Scotland, Wales, the West Midlands and Yorkshire and Humberside. However, the Liberal Democrats could do much better in the east, London, the south-east and the south-west.

If the two parties won all these seats, then Labour would have 321 seats and the Liberal Democrats 44 seats altogether as a result of adding them to the present total of their MPs in the Commons. That said, this figure ignores the effects of the nationalist parties in Scotland and Wales, both of which could contribute to Conservative losses. In practice, both Labour and the Liberal Democrats could do even better than this.

2019 Conservative Seats with a 20% Lead over over Labour/Lib Dems

These are just two scenarios, and so things could be different in reality. However, they highlight a unique feature of the current election. The centre-left has been divided since Labour replaced the Liberals as the main party of opposition in Britain after the first world war. This is the main reason why the Conservatives have been so successful in winning elections over the past century. The situation has now changed, with the centre-right divided. It is likely to have a devastating effect on the Conservatives on July 4.

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What would a Reform surge do to Labour and the Liberal Democrats? Two scenarios mapped - The Conversation