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Party stability on the progressive side of politics, and repeated party reconfiguration on the conservative side of politics, is a marked contrast in the history of Australias two-party political system.

That history is relevant now, as the Liberals find themselves in the electoral wilderness, and as a schism emerges over its stance on the referendum for an Indigenous Voice to the Australian parliament.

It raises a legitimate question about whether, as has happened several times in the past, the Liberal Party might be superseded by a new vehicle that better represents mainstream liberal and conservative voters interests and provides a viable electoral alternative to Labor.

In contrast to the Australian Labor Party, which predates Federation in 1901 and has existed continuously since, the Liberal Party was formed in 1944 and formally launched in 1945. It is the fifth iteration of the main vehicles through which the centre-right has sought federal parliamentary representation.

Federally, the Liberal Partys genealogy is:

Protectionist Party, Free Trade Party (1901-1909)

Commonwealth Liberal Party (1909-1917)

Nationalist Party (1917-1931)

United Australia Party (1931-1945)

Liberal Party (1945+).

The earliest parliaments were dominated by, as Alfred Deakin famously dubbed them, the three elevens because it was like having three cricket teams play the same match. They were the Deakin-led Protectionist Party, the Free Trade Party (later renamed the Anti-Socialist Party) and the Labor Party.

In 1909 the Protectionist Party and Anti-Socialist Party united to create the Commonwealth Liberal Party to compete with Labor, ushering in the two party era.

The next two iterations saw the main anti-Labor party unite, from opposition, with Labor breakaways to form a new party.

In 1917, the opposition Commonwealth Liberals merged with Billy Hughes breakaway National Labor Party to form the Nationalist Party, which held office under the prime ministership of Hughes and later Stanley Melbourne Bruce.

In 1931, the Nationalist Party opposition and Labor defector Joseph Lyons and his allies joined to form the United Australia Party (UAP). This was the vehicle for Lyons prime ministership and, on his death, Robert Menzies first prime ministership.

The UAP became increasingly dysfunctional after Lyons death. Menzies proved a poor war-time prime minister, was unpopular with colleagues, and resigned as prime minister in 1941. The coalition UAP-Country Party government of Arthur Fadden fell several weeks later after losing a confidence motion on the floor of parliament, succeeded by the Curtin Labor government.

Labors landslide 1943 election win finished the UAP as a political force. The partys primary vote slumped to 21.9% and it won just 14 of the federal parliaments then 74 seats.

Menzies drove the Liberal Partys foundation as a fresh start for centre-right politics in Australia.

His insight that the UAP was terminal was partly driven by the large amount of political activity that sprang up from centre-right forces outside the partys bounds. This included a large number of independent anti-Labor candidates running at the 1943 election.

The upsurge in centrist community independent candidates notably the Teals running at the 2022 federal election is a striking parallel.

Forming a new political party is a drastic move. The calculus on whether an existing party is still viable and can be renewed, or whether, as Menzies judged with the UAP, it is too far gone and needs to replaced, is a delicate one.

Former prime minister and Liberal leader John Howard declared after the 2022 election that we have to hold ourselves together, arguing Peter Dutton was the right man for the job.

Holding the Liberal Party together has since become established as the benchmark for Duttons success or failure as opposition leader. This is either a low bar or its a sign that the Liberal Party is indeed at risk of breaking apart.

These tensions date from the early 1980s under Howards aegis, when the conservative push to crush moderate viewpoints began in earnest.

Howard and conservative Liberal leadership successors since demanded the selling out of principled centrist policy positions as the price of moderates inclusion in cabinet and shadow cabinet.

Liberal moderates persistently paid that price in exchange for ministerial advancement. This in turn hastened the Liberals lurch to the right. The party become less and less reflective of mainstream Australia even as some visible moderates survived and rose through the ministerial ranks.

Women especially feel unwelcome in the party. The bullying of MP Julia Banks and her subsequent resignation from the Liberals in 2018 became emblematic of the partys toxic masculinity problem.

Former prime minister Scott Morrisons misogynistic handling of sexual violence allegations concerning Liberal Party figures followed. Female voters remember this in the ballot box.

The pervasiveness of evangelical Christians and conservative Catholics in the branch membership combined with, under the influence of Sky News After Dark programming, US Republican-style fringe interests and agendas, are alienating people who in other eras could or would have been branch members. There seems to be little space now for moderate Liberals.

People trying to improve things quietly from the inside are frustrated by the hardened factionalism and capture of key party organs by warring right-wing factions. There are too few mainstream people to coalesce with to drag the party back towards the centre.

Combined with the demographic changes noted by Redbridge analysts Kos Samaras and Tony Barry after the Liberals poor showing at the Victorian state election and federal Aston by-election, the picture for the party looks bleak.

As well as losing support among women, the Liberals have lost it among young people, Samaras and Barry note. This is compounded, they say, by young people now not becoming conservative as they age: those who once would have developed into Liberal voters simply arent doing so.

The Teals who won traditional blue riband Liberal seats in Sydney, Melbourne and Perth at the 2022 election are essentially moderate Liberals sitting on the crossbench, because sensible centrists are repellent to, and repelled by, the Liberal Party in its current state.

The entropy is gathering pace.

Less than a year ago, Indigenous MP Ken Wyatt was a Liberal cabinet minister before losing his seat at the 2022 election. In April this year, Wyatt resigned from the party in frustration over the Liberals opposition to the Indigenous Voice to Parliament, the co-design of which he himself commissioned and took to cabinet in the expectation of support. He was disappointed.

The resignation of the Dutton oppositions Indigenous affairs spokesperson, Julian Leeser a Voice supporter like Wyatt and a significant number of other Liberals breaks the pattern of moderates selling their soul for career advancement. While admirable, theres a lot less to lose taking a principled stand like this in opposition than government, but its a start.

Now Voice-supporting Liberals are forming WhatsApp groups to co-ordinate their actions in the yes campaign. This will likely bring them into campaigning contact with centrist Teals in those traditional blue riband seats the Liberals lost at the 2022 election.

Could that create a chemistry that spurs development of the Liberal Partys next iteration?

Who knows? But remnant centrists inside the Liberals finding common cause with Teals and their allies outside it, campaigning if not together then at least in close proximity around a galvanising issue of national importance, does make it more rather than less likely.

Opposition Leader Peter Duttons defensive posture of just appealing to the base and trying to hold the Liberals together may prove the losing gambit in this fifth iteration of Australias main party of the centre-right. As Dutton would know from sport, purely playing defence rarely wins the game.

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The Liberals are the fifth iteration of Australia's main centre-right party. Could the Voice campaign hasten a sixth? - The Conversation Indonesia

Reclaiming a seat in the legislature is the goal for the Alberta Liberal Party in the May 29 provincial election.

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Party Leader John Roggeveen acknowledged his Liberals face an uphill battle against the UCP and NDP in the upcoming vote, but said he wants to provide Albertans with a third choice in what he described as a two-party system which currently leaves some voters without any good options.

At the start of this campaign, we face two much larger opponents, Roggeveen told party volunteers in northeast Calgary Sunday afternoon.

We have a government thats led by a premier whos never managed to get a mandate of the people, in a general election at least, and an opposition led by a former premier whos been rejected in the past election.

The Alberta Liberals campaign slogan You deserve a better choice reflects Roggeveens pitch of his party as an alternative to the elections two heavyweights.

He outlined some of the partys key areas of policy interest, with focus on climate policy including a just energy transition, and health care and mental health funding.

Theyre policies that largely mirror those of the federal Liberal party, but Roggeveen said the two groups are separate entities, and his party is willing to take stances that go against those of Prime Minister Justin Trudeaus government.

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The Alberta Liberals have historically won seats in Alberta, including two decades where they sat as the provinces opposition government from 1993 through 2012.

But their support has dwindled with the rise of the Alberta NDP, with only then-Leader David Swann winning a seat in 2015 and the party being shut out of the legislature entirely under David Khans leadership in 2019, the partys first zero-seat result since 1982.

Polling suggests the party will remain a non-factor in this springs vote, but Roggeveen said hes pushing for an upset on May 29.

He announced hell run in Calgary-Lougheed, facing off against UCP candidate Eric Bouchard and the NDPs Venkat Akkiraj. The party has currently named candidates in fewer than a dozen of Albertas 87 ridings, but Roggeveen estimated their slate of candidates will total 22 to 24 by election day.

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We face many challenges in this election, in large part because we dont have the financial resources of the two titans, Roggeveen said, saying his party needs to redefine itself for voters this election.

We must remodel and renovate our party, so we can once again be part of the political conversation in the province and elect members to the legislature.

In British Columbia, that provinces Liberal Party recently renamed itself to British Columbia United. There are no plans for a name change in Alberta, however, Roggeveen said.

Premier Danielle Smith has indicated she plans to drop the writ Monday, kicking off a four-week election campaign before Albertans head to the polls May 29.

See original here:
Alberta Liberals eye return to legislature in election campaign kickoff - Calgary Herald

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The Biden Administration has asked Ottawa to reimpose visa requirements on Mexicans entering Canada in order to prevent a surge of illegal crossings at its northern border. But Canadas minister of immigration Sean Fraser said he has no plans to do so.

Canada works closely with the both United States and Mexico on shared challenges, including border security. In collaboration with these partners, Canada has been monitoring migration trends from Mexico and has no plans to reimpose the visa requirement at this time, said a spokesman for Fraser, the CBC reported.

This is unacceptable. There should be absolutely no hesitation in halting visa-free travel by Mexicans to help the Americans deal with their chronic and enormous illegal immigration problem. Currently, anyone can board a plane in Mexico, fly to Canada, enter the country, then sneak into the United States. And Mexicans arent the only ones taking advantage of this loophole: Asians, Russians, Central and South Americans, Middle Easterners and others get into Mexico in order use the Canada route to get into America.

In fact Trudeau should never have lifted the visa requirement in 2016, but did after it had been put in place in 2009 by Stephen Harpers Conservative government. This was the first indication that Trudeau intended to open the floodgates to immigration, which he has ever since, causing a housing and health care crisis in Vancouver and Toronto, the two biggest immigration destinations.

Now Americans are asking for help, but getting pushback from Ottawa as well as from Mexico. Total migration encounters this year at the U.S.-Mexico border have reached record highs, according to government figures. These illegal entrants are not only Mexican nationals, but come from all over the world from Central or South America to Europe or Asia then transit through Mexico (and Canada to a lesser extent) with the help of traffickers.

This imposes a huge burden for American taxpayers in the form of policing costs as well as support for those who seek asylum or for children abandoned at the border. One recent estimate is that the immigration crisis south of the border in 2022 cost federal, state, and local levels at least US$150.7 billion (CAD $203 billion), or more than the Canadian governments entire budget in 2022 of C$190.3 billion.

Story continues

Last week, U.S. Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas said that Canadas visa requirement was needed again as people seek a way to bypass American rules along the Mexican border. Some Canadian security officials agree and are also concerned because open-ended entry may be facilitating the entry of contraband such as guns or opioids hidden in luggage or containers.

In March, the U.S. and Canada signed new Safe Third Country Agreement to crack down on illegal migrants making asylum claims at unofficial points of entry by land or sea. The Agreement is designed to prevent claimants from using one of the two countries to gain entry into the other. Asylum seekers cannot apply for admission to a safe country from another safe country.

Mayorkas last week met with his Canadian counterpart at the 2023 Canada-United States Cross-Border Crime Forum in Ottawa. The Americans claim that the number of Mexican migrants entering the U.S. from Canada has steadily increased since Trudeau lifted the visa requirement in 2016. The number apprehended remains small: So far in the first six months of this fiscal year, 1,999 Mexicans were caught compared to 882 the previous year. But the number may be higher and theres also concern that as America cracks down on its huge illegal immigration problem at the Mexican border, the number of people using Canada as a backdoor entry will increase dramatically until there are visa requirements.

Were seeing an unprecedented level of migration around the world and in our region The challenge of migration is a hemispheric one, and hemispheric challenges require hemispheric solutions, said Mayorkas.

Hes right. Canada must help the Americans or it will become part of the problem.

Financial Post

Read and sign up for Dianes newsletter on America at dianefrancis.substack.com

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Diane Francis: Liberals need to crackdown on the Mexico-Canada backdoor into the U.S. - Yahoo Canada Finance

Victorian Liberal MPs will be free to cast a conscience vote in the Voice to Parliament referendum, putting the state party at odds with its federal counterpart.

Opposition Leader John Pesutto confirmed this morning that the Liberal party room hadvoted in favour of a "non-binding position" for MPs ahead of the referendum.

Prior to the vote, and after shadow cabinet had endorsed the position, Mr Pesutto said the stateparty would follow an established tradition of Liberal MPs being allowed conscience votes.

"This is a very important issue for our nation, and I certainly believe as leader of the opposition here in Victoria that it's important for the members of the opposition to have a non-binding position so they are free to approach that issue and determine it for themselves," Mr Pesutto said.

"There's a long way to go in this debate and I'm sure all of us will continue to have important discussions with our friends and colleagues and neighbours across the community to talk about such an important issue.

"I think this is a common-sense approach, it's fair, it recognises that people have different viewpoints on this, and all I can say is that, the parties we represent here today, we value the freedom of each member to determine for themselves which way they'll approach a national issue."

The Victorian Liberals' approach is in contrast to the federal opposition, which confirmed last month it would campaign for a "no" vote in the upcoming referendum.

Mr Pesutto said his vote would be influenced at least partly by the findings of afederal parliamentary committee examining the Voice proposal.

The committee is examining the legal ramifications of the proposed change to the constitution, rather than the broader issue of whether the Voice should be implemented.

"I will be making my position known but I want to obtain further information on that, and I expect that certainly after the select committee reports, I'll make my announcement shortly after that," he said.

"I do have some concerns about wording, which I hope the select committee can look through, but like I've said on other occasions, this is a debate of national importance and significance, and I certainly approach it in good faith, with an open mind."

Prior to Mr Pesutto's announcement, a number of Opposition MPs had publicly expressed their support for a non-binding vote in the referendum.

A number of state Liberal MPs including Jess Wilson, Evan Mulholland, James Newbury and Shadow Treasurer Brad Rowswell had previously called for a non-binding position.

Ms Wilson has indicated that she is leaning towards supporting the Voice.

Conversely, Liberal upper house MP Beverley McArthur has declared her opposition to the Voice, describing it as divisive and likening it to apartheid-era South Africa.

Another Liberal MP, Renee Heath, has also publicly opposed the Voice.

The Victorian Nationals are yet to formalise their position. The federal National Party is backing a "no" vote.

Meanwhile, former Liberal leader Matthew Guy has lashed the "faceless leakers" within his own party who he said contributed to the devastating loss in last year's state election.

Speaking on a podcast with radio show host Neil Mitchell, Mr Guy said people within the administration of the party were intent on building their own "brand" through leaking to journalists.

"What you see are these people who offer themselves predominantly to newspapers but also to ABC who are regular haters of the Liberal Party who will just gossip, and that gossip is usually talking the Liberal Party down," he said.

"So people on our side who talk us down, who talk our parliamentary partydown, talkthe brand down, talk us down at every opportunity.

"When you've got senior people in the party undermining you, during the campaign, undermining the campaign, undermining the state director, undermining what we're trying to do. I would ring some of the journalists running these stories and they'd say 'mate, the source is very senior, how can I not?'"

Mr Guy also strongly criticised state party president Greg Mirabella, describing him as "woeful" and a "hindrance to the campaign".

He accused Mr Mirabella of wanting to be on TV and focusing too much on formulating policy, rather than bolstering the party's structure and supporting MPs.

Mr Guy also denied he had the support of Sky News during his leadership, describing the news channel's "after dark" programs as akin to the politics of One Nation and "incredibly damaging to the Liberal Party."

Link:
Victorian Liberal MPs to have free vote in Indigenous Voice to Parliament referendum - ABC News

Published April 30, 2023 8:20 p.m. ET

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Former Bank of Canada (and Bank of England)governorMark Carney was on CTV Question Period on Sunday andVassyKapelos was at the top of her game.

When Carney figure skated around her direct question as to whether Justin Trudeau should lead the Liberals against Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre in the next election, she asked it again.

Granted, figure skating doesnt come easily to Carney who is, after all, a former goalie. Still, hissecond non-answer toVassysrepeated question was, indeed, the answer. Carney is refusing to say whether Trudeau is the best person to have that knock-down, drag out fight with the dark blueprince, Poilievre.

In a previous life,I was a minister in a Liberal cabinet in Quebec City. Given my much more enjoyable current role as analyst and commentator, lots of former colleagues who gravitate around the Natural Governing Party love to share gossip and inside tales.

One recurring theme from lifelong federal Liberals is that Trudeau is being told, in the most deferential tones, that given his accomplishments on daycare, dental care andhealth care, he should consider this third term his legacy mandate.

In other words, maybe its time he started looking at which richly paid boards of directors hed like to get named to, when he steps down.

Carney has an edge on any other potential candidate to eventually replace Trudeau. His key role at one of theworldslargest investment firms provides him with an exceptional understanding of the transition that is necessary to steer the planet clear of the calamity that is climate change. He gets it and has the ear of the most important players around the business world on sustainable development issues.

Trudeau, of course, has proven time and again that hes his own man. He wont be shoved. Indeed, if theres one thing Ive learned about him its that he has a tendency to go all in when he sees that everyones reached a conclusion differentfrom his own. If he decides hes staying, no one will make him budge.

At the same time, even though he sees the battle against Poilievre as irresistible, hesstartingto show signs that hes had the biscuit. In question period, Poilievre has been dominant. Issues like Chinese electoral interference and the related Trudeau Foundation scandal wont go away.

Trudeau has a checkered track record on actually running the government, which is supposed to be a big part of the job of aprime minister. While deserving top marks for the handling of the pandemic, Trudeau has otherwise shown a near total disregard for public administration.

Liberals can spin all they want about an increase in government programs, theres absolutely no way to justify or rationalize a 31 per cent increase in the size of the federal bureaucracy in the first seven years of Trudeaus reign.

Thats where someone like Carney comes in. He has the managerial depth of experience so sorely lacking in Trudeau and hisentourage. Bill Morneau was right in his blistering assessment: the Prime MinistersOfficeand the Privy Council are more about managing Trudeaus image than managing the government of aG7country.

There are good reasons to believe that Trudeau is looking at thisfallas a potential window for calling an election. Hed still be able to hold it under the current electoral map. The new one adds a number of seats that are bound to go Conservative.

If Trudeau makes his call just prior to the return of Parliament in September, he gets to campaign all summer on the governments dime and, from June until election day, there will not be a single question period wherePoilievrecan shine. Ministers would be free to travel and make announcements for months without any of it being counted as an electoral expense.

As weve all learned watching the Trudeau Foundation train wreck, the Liberals are experts at navigating the gray zones of political financing. Take $125 million of public money and use old time Liberals to hand it out to deserving (and thankful) future leaders at the top of their class.

Its similar to Canada 2020, not a political expense, just helpful for the red team.

Of course theres an abundance of possible contenders in the current cabinet, the outstanding Chrystia Freeland top among them. Minister Franois-Philippe Champagne has lots of talent and ambitions to match, but hed be up against a long-standing liberal tradition of alternating between anglophone and francophone leaders.

Its worth bearing in mind that of the five political parties represented in the House of Commons, the only one to have never had a woman as leader is the Liberal Party. Thats something many in the party would be seeking to change if and when Trudeau does decide to step down. That, in turn, makes it a tougher hill to climb for both Champagne and Carney.

That desire to finally have a woman leader might provide the incentive for another exceptionally skilled politician, DefenceMinisterAnita Anand, to reach for the brass ring.

In the meantime, the upcoming Liberal convention will be anything but the usual snooze fest. Expect Trudeau to deliver a barn burner where every word has been weighed in the full knowledge that every phrase will be parsed.

Carney says hes going there to listen. Im betting that hes going to hear a lot of positive things. I had the good fortune to invite him to give a keynote speech and to address a smaller graduate class at lUniversit de Montral on economic and environmental issues. Hes a brilliant,engaging character, who still speaks fluent French despite his years away.

His current job is to think about the future of the planet. Im guessing hes also taking some time to think about his ownfuture.

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Tom Mulcair: Why Carney could replace Trudeau - CTV News