We dont know what were doing: Inside Boris Johnsons fractured Tory party – iNews
The dark cloud sitting over Boris Johnsons leadership lifted a little this week, but his party is splintering as factions compete over where it goes next.
Attention may have switched to Ukraine, and speculation over the number of backbencher letters of no confidence has subsided, with MPs back in their constituencies for the parliamentary break.
But the brief respite from the Downing Street soap opera has allowed a longer-term problem for the Conservatives to come into focus the party is wracked by division and doesnt know where it is heading.
MPs are split along a growing number of overlapping lines: big state v small state, Red Wall v Blue Wall, One Nation v libertarian right, pro or anti net zero, and Johnson loyalists v those who think its time for the PM to go in the wake of the partygate scandal.
Their leaders current vulnerability is accentuating the division. What backbenchers think suddenly matters, and Mr Johnson is finding himself besieged with requests to change tack to win their support.
Discussing the many fault lines criss-crossing the partys backbenches, one senior Tory source puts it: Boriss foundation is very wide but its not very deep, so if one bit starts to wobble the whole thing wobbles.
Thats why it can look stable one minute and chaos the next.
But this could end up saving the PM, as unlike Theresa May he is not facing a co-ordinated campaign to oust him driven by a large group of ideological bedfellows like the so-called Brexit Spartans.
Because its all these little groups, those wanting to oust Boris have to knit together so many competing interests, which is difficult, the source said.
And there is conflict between the factions, with accusations flying about some MPs exploiting the situation to force their own agenda.
Whether or not a leadership challenge comes key parts of this weakened PMs agenda are coming under pressure from different sections of the party.
In recent weeks there has been a concerted push by MPs led by right-wingers Craig Mackinlay and Steve Baker and with the backing of Mr Johnsons former Brexit minister Lord Frost for the Government to row back on its ambitious goal of net-zero carbon emissions by 2050.
It culminated in a letter to the Sunday Telegraph, signed by 29 MPs, demanding the PM lift the ban on fracking in order to harvest shale gas and bring down energy bills.
Even serving ministers are sceptical about the net-zero agenda, with one telling i it is the only thing the Government is doing.
Theres a bit of health and a bit of education when we decide to teach kids something but everything else is net zero.
We are on a hiding to nothing with it. The last 10 per cent (to get to net zero) is astronomically expensive.
Will Tanner, director of the influential Onward think tank, says his research suggests net zero could absolutely become a divisive culture war issue if not handled correctly and the Government should be under no illusions about the possibility of this turning into quite a difficult issue as people are reluctant to stomach the costs.
The idea of spending 10,000 on a heat pump or 30,000 on an electric car is both beyond the means and the political imagination of most voters, they see that as a stretch too far.
But there is also an enormous opportunity for the Government and the Red Wall voters it now serves that Tory critics largely ignore, he adds.
Mr Tanner says people in forgotten places such as Redcar, Teesside, are feeling for the first time in 30 years the benefits of highly skilled jobs associated with net zero through wind turbine manufacturing, carbon capture and other industries.
Those benefits particularly accrue to the types of areas levelling up is trying to support, he says.
Alexander Stafford, Tory MP for Rother Valley in South Yorkshire, sees the opportunity and is scathing about colleagues who want to return to fracking.
Its almost a lazy argument to say bring back fracking, he says. The more renewables we have, the more control we have over our own energy, the less control Russia and Saudi and other countries have, the less likely we are to be hit by global fluctuations in the gas price.
Mr Stafford says MPs are exploiting the leadership crisis to push against net zero, something he insists his voters care about.
There clearly is a concern that some elements of the party are using the current situation to try and force their own agenda, he says.
(The PM) actually cares about net zero, you cant fault his commitment to that and there is concern that if there is a leadership contest, others will not be as hot on it.
He implores colleagues: We cant be those Luddites smashing up spinning jennies, we want to be the country making the spinning jennies and selling them abroad.
The argument over net zero speaks to a wider battle for the soul of the party between Thatcherite libertarians who want tax cuts and a small state, and those who now see a role for big spending.
There has been a sustained campaign against plans to raise national insurance in April, which will raise the tax burden to its highest level in decades in order to increase funding for the NHS and social care.
Veteran Tory backbencher John Redwood complained of a tax attack, while Lord Frost once an apolitical diplomat but now a champion of Tory free-marketeers remarked this week that big government was not just wrong but in many ways comic.
The PMs allies have responded to this, with his new No 10 chief of staff Steve Barclay pledging to cut the size of government.
But among the newer cohort of Conservative backbenchers, however, most have been more keen to secure Government spending in their seats. And, with some influential voices suggesting that prosperous Southern seats could be sacrificed to preserve a Red Wall-based majority, might Mr Johnson have changed his party forever?
One MP says: Im not a libertarian, its more important to strengthen public services than cut taxes.
The shift in attitudes towards public spending is perhaps most clearly seen in the new Tory approach to welfare, with many MPs recently campaigning, unsuccessfully, to keep the pandemic-linked 20 universal credit uplift.
One MP says Covid-19 has helped drive a sea change from the austerity era, and spark a recognition that government has a role to play in helping people to help themselves.
They added: Obviously there is a strong libertarian free market element [in the Conservative Party] but I think theres a recognition that there is an umbilical cord between the British people and our health service, and there is a push from lots of colleagues for spending on education, individual seats, schools and new hospitals and roads, which would probably not have happened in the past.
It isnt just pork barrel, its a kind of belief we need a mixed economy. Its not about big government or small government, its about good government.
Mr Tanner says tension is inevitable when Mr Johnson is pursuing economy-changing agendas such as net zero and levelling up, but he stresses: We are not in the 1980s.
And Mr Baker, the maverick ex-minister known for his campaigning nous, has partially admitted defeat in his bid to drive the party back to its small-state instincts.
Addressing activists recently, he said: I am a free-market Conservative who must compromise every day. There is not a libertarian caucus in the party.
Others believe levelling up and a small state are achievable together but stress Mr Johnson should put the brakes on spending for now given the 400bn black hole in the public finances and high tax rates.
Sir Geoffrey Clifton-Brown, treasurer of the powerful Tory backbench 1922 Committee, says: After spending 400bn on Covid, you cant run before you can walk, you can only spend what youve got.
Elsewhere, Mr Johnsons forays into right-wing populism such as his false claims about Sir Keir Starmer are going down badly among One Nation MPs, with at least two submitting letters of no confidence in him criticising the remarks.
One MP says there is a definitely a tension between those MPs facing Labour and those MPs facing the Lib Dems, and with generally different demographics.
They say: This comes back to the leadership you need someone who can unite both. At the last election Boris managed to straddle those two camps but the question is who is going to straddle the camps now?
They suggest the Tories may have to do some really clear thinking about which seats to target in future, as it may be impossible to keep all of the current voter coalition happy.
One minister suggests sacrificing well-off southern seats that face a Liberal Democrat challenge.
It would be better to just put the other guys [Labour] in and let them f*** it up and come back with more of an idea of what we want to do, they said.
We dont need a majority of 80, we need a majority of 40 you cant keep hold of Chipping Barnet and Blyth valley.
But the minister also has a bleak assessment of his partys position: We dont have any [ideological] mooring, we dont know what were doing.
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We dont know what were doing: Inside Boris Johnsons fractured Tory party - iNews