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When you look at the Washington state map of the 2020 presidential election results, its nearly unchanged from 2016. The blue counties are all still blue. The red counties with one exception remain red. So it might seem like theres not much of a story here.

But what that map wont tell you is that almost across the board, the state got more Democratic in 2020. President-elect Joe Biden performed better in nearly every county than Hillary Clinton did in 2016.

In 35 of Washingtons 39 counties, Biden improved upon Clintons 2016 margins against Donald Trump. This pattern held true both in the states bluest counties, as well as many of its reddest.

The county that moved the most toward the Democrats picturesque San Juan County already ranked among the bluest counties in Washington. In 2016, Clinton easily beat Trump here by 64% to 24%, a whopping 40-point spread.

Tough to improve on a margin like that but thats exactly what Biden did, and by a lot. Trump only did slightly worse this time in San Juan, at a little over 23%. But Biden massively outperformed Clinton by winning almost 74% of the vote. Thats nearly a 51-point spread, meaning Biden did more than 10 points better than Clinton had in 2016.

How did Biden do it?

In San Juan, as in every county across the state, voters abandoned Libertarian, Green and other third parties in 2020. Instead, they picked Trump or Biden. So while it helped both candidates, in most of the state, Biden got the lions share of those votes.

Lets use San Juan as an example. In 2016, third-party and write-in candidates got 11% of the vote in 2016. Remember Green Party candidate Jill Stein? She alone got about 4% of the vote.

But in 2020, all the third-party and write-candidates combined only got 3% in San Juan. This pattern holds true across the state. Third-party and write-in candidates share of the vote dropped by at least five points in all 39 Washington counties.

In 2016, Clinton won 12 Washington counties. In all 12, Biden won by more in 2020. In liberal Jefferson County, where Port Townsend is located, Biden increased the spread of victory by more than nine points. In Kitsap County, which Clinton also won handily, Biden increased the margin by more than seven points.

Here in King County, Clinton beat Trump 70% to 21% in 2016, a 49-point spread. This time around, Trump did slightly better, garnering 22% of the vote. But Biden won 75% of the vote, widening the spread to 53 points. That, by the way, makes King the bluest county in Washington in 2020, edging out San Juan.

Even in the counties that Trump won again this year, his margins got smaller in all but four. In Chelan County, Trump won 53% of the vote in 2020, about the same as he did in 2016. But Biden got 45%, a 7-point improvement over Clintons performance. In Walla Walla and Pacific counties, both won again by Trump, Biden narrowed the spread by about six points.

And Biden even managed to flip one county from red to blue: Clallam, where Port Angeles is located. In 2016, Trump won the county by 46% to Clintons 44%. This time around, Biden got 50% to Trumps 47%.

With Clallam flipping blue, there was only one county in the Puget Sound region that went for Trump in 2020: Mason, which contains most of the Hood Canal, and where Shelton is located. But it, too, moved more Democratic in 2020. Biden narrowed Trumps margin of victory by about 5 points compared with 2016.

It wasnt all bad news for Trump in Washington. His biggest improvement over 2016 was in Cowlitz County, in Southwestern Washington, where Longview is located. He beat Clinton here handily, winning 51% to 38%, a 13-point spread. But against Biden, he won even more decisively (57% to 40%), increasing the spread by four points.

Trump also increased his margin of victory in three Eastern Washington counties, all of which he had easily won in 2016: Garfield, Pend Oreille and Stevens.

Garfield, by the way, is the states reddest county (as well as its least populous, with fewer than 2,500 residents). Trump won Garfield, which is just east of Walla Walla, with a 47-point spread over Biden in 2020. Thats two points better than his margin of victory over Clinton in 2016.

Statewide, Biden won 58% of the more than 4 million votes cast in Washington to Trumps 39%. Trump did about 1 point better than he did in 2016. But Biden bested Clintons 2016 showing by about four points.

Third-party and write-in candidates dropped from nearly 8% of the statewide vote in 2016 to just 3% in 2020.

Read more:
Even some of Washingtons reddest counties were bluer in 2020 - Yakima Herald-Republic

As ballot counting in most states winds to a close (except in laggardly Alaska, Illinois, New York, Maryland, and a few others), a striking pattern has already emerged: President Donald Trump, in state after state, received virtually the same percentage of the vote as he did in 2016.

In swing state Arizona, where demographics are changing and Republicans are losing their grip on statewide politics, the incumbent stands at 49.0 percent of the vote, compared to his 2016 total of48.1. In battleground Michigan, after four years of intense campaigning, Trump's 2016 result of 47.5 percent was fed feet-first into the woodchipper of 2020 and came out the other end as47.9. By late Tuesday night, the expressed preference for Trump in more than half the country had changed in four years by less than a single percentage point.

What did change were two overlapping and interrelated sets of numbers. The share of third-party/independent presidential voters plummeted by nearly four percentage points since 2016, from 5.7 to 1.8, while Joe Biden exceeded Hillary Clinton's haul nationally by 2.6 percentage points and climbing steadily, as the populous blue states continue to pad his lead.

So while Michigan, for example, was delivering essentially the same results for Trump as four years ago, the Great Lakes State was subtracting 3.6 percentage points from third-party candidates, and adding 3.2 to Biden (that's a 90 percent "Excess Vote" rating, for those who enjoy made-up stats). Arizona has a similar story: down a combined 4.6 for the marginal names, up 4.3 for the Democrat; 92 percent E.V. All over the country, the president was able to bring out more of his voters, but with only a handful of exceptions was unable to expand on his core share of support by persuading fence-sitters to choose the Republican side.

Pre-election polls predicted this2016 third-party voters, and specifically Libertarians (who made up 57 percent of the third-party electorate that year), repeatedly said that a majority of them were going straight, and preferred Biden to Trump by more than two to one. There were 7.8 million third-party voters last time, and just 2.7 million this time, so any strong lean by the remaining 5 million-plus was always going to dwarf whatever impact partisans may attribute to "spoilers."

Some Republicans have been mad online that Libertarian presidential candidate Jo Jorgensen's vote totals exceeded Biden's margin over Trump in Arizona (by 1.12 percentage points), Georgia (by 0.95), Wisconsin (0.54), and Pennsylvania (0.47). But those numbers pale in comparison to the products of this formula: Biden's percentage point gains over Clinton, minus Trump 2020's gains over Trump 2016, minus the drop in the third-party vote.

The president-elect trounced Trump in that category by 3.93 percentage points so far in Arizona, 2.35 in Georgia (actually more, but I'll explain in a moment), 1.40 in Pennsylvania, and 1.39 in Wisconsin. Third-party voters in 2016 had more impact on the two-party race in 2020 than any third-party voters in 2020 ever could.

The Georgia count is interesting on two fronts. One, it's a reminder that these aren't simplistically reassigned votes from 2016; every electorate is different, and there were certainly many voters who went straight from Republican to Democrat without making a pit stop in LibertarianGreenConstitutionKanyeLand. So in fact Biden in the Peach State is up 3.88 percentage points over Hillary Clinton, and Trump is down 1.54 from last time, the latter a pretty unusual occurrence outside of the northeast. Since the third-party decline in Georgia was just 2.35 points, I awarded only that amount of excess to Biden, but there are definitely some other significant factors affecting and accelerating that change.

Georgia is also one of the handful of states whose 2016 third-party electorate was overwhelmingly (about 85 percent) Libertarian. A very curious thing happened in such jurisdictions: Compared to the rest of the country, their decline this year in third-party voting was lower, and their Excess Vote for Biden was higher.

In Oklahoma, for example, all 5.75 percent of third-party voters in 2016 went for Gary Johnson. In 2020, the state's third-party decline of 59 percent, down to 2.33 percentage points, was actually one of the lowest in the union (the national average being closer to 68 percent). Still, Trump got almost no measurable bump from third-partiers coming back in from the cold, finishing at 65.37 percent of the vote, compared to 65.32 in 2016. Similar stories can be told in Indiana and South Dakota.

What's the analytical upshot, even with the caveat that we're still blindly groping the elephant of this election? One is that voters for the Libertarian Party (L.P.) have greater propensity at this moment to stick: The L.P. lost 64 percent of its voting share from 2016, compared to 73 percent for the Constitution Party and 78 percent for the Green Party.

The other is that, at least in the unusual third-party spike year of 2016, people who formerly voted for Libertarians (which, it's always important to remember, outnumbered actual members of the party four years ago by around 5 to 1), are not just Republicans who got high for an election only to sober up next time. They're more loyal to the quixotic dream than voters of other small parties, and they have demonstrated zero propensity to prefer the GOP. At least in this election, with this president.

To the extent that ex-Libertarian voters pulled the lever this time for Biden, it wasn't because of his proposals on spending, taxes, regulation, Section 230, the Supreme Court, or a hundred other things. If there is any libertarian case for Biden, it's situational, and that situation ends on January 20. All foolish talk of a "mandate" should include a clause about how the former vice president probably couldn't have gotten over the hump without Gary Johnson's voters. Good luck keeping those types in the coalition.

Every minute of every day is filled with peopleincluding not a small number who describe themselves as at least somewhat "libertarian"telling you that it's A Time for Choosing, time to put on your big boy pants, time to declare your unwavering opposition to Party X or Party Y. Don't you recognize authoritarianism and/or statism when you see it?

One of the enduring if low-key quirks of this election is that there appears to be a cat-herd of at least 1 percent of the population who appear unswayed by such appeals, with an extra 2 percent who don't exhibit reliably pigeonholeable behavior. That, by definition, will be frustrating to most people passionate about politics. But from my admittedly marginal perspective, if the two major parties are going to rebuke most libertarian ideas, better to have the swing vote wearing a capital-L on its sweater.

Read more:
Trump Lost in Part Because 2016 Third-Party Voters Heavily Preferred Biden - Reason

GREENVILLE, SC (WSPA)Were hearing from this years Libertarian presidential candidate, Jo Jorgensen, who lives right here in the Upstate.

She tells 7-news she will continue her movement, even after President-Elect Joe Biden was declared the presumptive winner on Saturday.

Voters in every state in America, saw Dr. Jorgensens name on their ballots as a presidential candidate this year.

Well the timing just worked out and I wouldve run earlier, Dr. Jorgensen said.

Little did they know, the Libertarian candidate lives right here in the Upstate and is a full-time professor of psychology at Clemson University. She has been a full-time Senior Lecturer at the university since 2006.

However, never mentioned to my students that I was running for president, but some of them of course had figured it out. And so, I would sometimes say, Im here from beautiful downtown Seattle or Alaska, but I wouldnt say why, Jorgensen said. In fact, I just had a student, two weeks ago emailed me and said, I just put two and two together and realized that my Psychology professor is running for president. And he said he and his girlfriend were both going to vote for me, she said.

Right now, Jorgensen has over one percent of Americas votes. She said this shows many Americans wanted another alternative.

I think if people, if wed had not such a contentious race, I think I couldve gotten a lot more votes, but despite the fact that so many people were angry, they said you know what, I dont want either one of them and they voted for us, Jorgensen said.

About 75% of Jorgensens campaign volunteers were from outside the Libertarian party. She now wants to continue the momentum and put the third party on the map.

I want to keep that momentum going and Id like to start keeping the democrats and republicans honest, and say hey, if youre not going to follow through with what you said youd do, then you going to start losing your votes. The votes that youre so arrogant enough to think you own, Jorgensen said.

While votes are still being counted, Dr. Jorgensen said she hopes her movement will continue to spread throughout the nation.

That voters understand that they know better how to spend their money and they know better that the decisions that their family needs than any special interest of lobbyist or bureaucrat in Washington and that people should be making their own decisions and not politicians in Washington, Jorgensen said. Right now, weve got a one size fits all, where from Washington, theyre telling us how to run our education, how to run our police, and everything else. These should be up to state and local communities, and then other decisions should be left up to the individual, she added.

Dr. Jorgensen was previously the Libertarian partys Vice-President nominee in 1996, with Harry Browne as her running mate. Jorgensen said shes unsure if she will run again, but will keep her website up and see what happens.

Read more here:
Libertarian presidential candidate reflects on 2020 election campaign; looks towards the future - WSPA 7News

Lots of people on the left and right found reasons to be a little unhappy, or downright miserable, about the election. The Republican Party lost the White House; Democrats have lost ground in the House, and their path to a Senate majority seems very narrow.

But there is one group of people unreservedly happy even ecstatic about the results: those who lean libertarian.

They got almost everything they wanted. On the one hand, Joe Biden has a friendlier record on trade and immigration, and on the other, they avoided the burst of spending that inevitably comes with unified control of the federal government.

Old-school debt and deficit hawks will also be pleased, too, but libertarians are ecstatic. As one writer at Reason wondered, perhaps speaking for many libertarians, Is this the greatest election of my lifetime?

In the early years of the Trump administration, with Republicans in control of Congress, the country saw a steady rise in spending and ballooning deficits and debt. Senator Ted Cruz of Texas might not have been quite right when he said that, after all, President Trump didnt campaign on cutting the debt. Actually, Mr. Trump did, but in a throwaway manner, while putting more stress on continued, even increased, big spending and debt.

And as is so often the case with one-party control, as in Mr. Trumps first years, big spending took hold. According to the Cato Institute, over Mr. Trumps four years, spending went up by a total of 10 percent. Something similar happened under George W. Bush: Spending shot up 24 percent.

But what really seems like an effective arrangement for controlling spending is a Democratic president with Republicans in charge of at least one body of Congress. During the first four years of the Barack Obama and Bill Clinton administrations, both of which included years of split control of government, spending was more restrained or even reduced. Under Mr. Clinton, spending inched up only 3 percent. In Mr. Obamas first term, total spending actually went down by 10 percent.

There are ways beyond the budget that a Biden presidency could be a boon to libertarians. Mr. Trump was a disaster when it came to free trade, kicking off a huge trade war with China and renegotiating NAFTA so that it contained more protectionist, anti-free-market measures like wage controls.

By contrast, Mr. Biden will probably cut a more pro-trade profile. Congressional Republicans and Democrats were reluctant to give Mr. Trump trade negotiating authority, but they are more likely to give Mr. Biden that authority than they are to withhold it (despite some pressure from the partys progressives like Bernie Sanders or Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez).

Mr. Biden is likely to pursue pro-immigration reforms and policies, both in the realm of regulation and administrative practice as well as in terms of legislation. Libertarians never liked the mechanism by which President Obama established the Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals program, but they also hated President Trumps dismantling of it as well as his major cuts to legal immigration, big spending for a border wall and more.

Libertarians view legal immigration, and especially high-skilled workers, as an economic boon to the country and like that free trade keeps prices down for American consumers and extends our opportunities to sell abroad.

And there is also Mr. Bidens record. Sure, he made campaign proposals for a health care public option and spending on climate programs. But he has a reputation for tough fiscal discipline relative to the rest of his party.

As vice president, he helped resolve spending stalemates and government shutdowns with that ultimate spending-slashing tool that big-spending Democrats and Republicans hated but libertarians loved: sequestration, or automatic spending caps.

As a senator, he worked hard to keep the deficit and debt under control. To take a couple of examples, in the mid-1990s, he voted for a constitutional amendment that would require the federal government to balance its budget a position that put him at odds with a majority of the Democratic caucus. In 1997, he voted yes on a Republican budget that cut both taxes and spending.

With a Biden presidency, a McConnell-dominated Senate and a less Democratic House, libertarians get the best possible outlook on spending, debt and deficits, and these other important policy areas while also perhaps preventing far-left nominees for important executive roles and dodging the specter of court packing.

The election will be deeply disappointing to die-hard Trumpers, Democrats hoping for a landslide and Never Trumpers eager to see the Republican Party burn. Thats a lot of people, probably even most voters.

But for some of us, it will be a win a silver lining out of the countrys political divisions.

Liz Mair (@LizMair), a strategist for campaigns by Scott Walker, Roy Blunt, Rand Paul, Carly Fiorina and Rick Perry, is the founder and president of Mair Strategies.

Continue reading here:
Why the Election Worked Out Well for Libertarians and Deficit Hawks - The New York Times

It has been a tumultuous week for all Americans, but conservative students at Seattle University have had a particularly interesting week.

The Seattle U Conservative Student Union (SUCU) held a watch party over Zoom Nov. 3 to observe the ballots roll in from across the country.

While the group was smallonly seven peoplethey were a tight-knit and consistent group of like-minded individuals.

The group was designed as a space for students with certain political viewpoints to come together in a city that consistently is more liberal-leaning. According to Matthew Wald, a third year nursing student and president of SUCU, the club is both welcoming of and open to communication with the entire Seattle U community.

As the ballot count began, several students pointed out that not everyone in the club was completely satisfied with the Republican party, nor candidate President Trump.

I think we are at a point now where tensions are really high. I think people are more likely to jump to conclusions and assume an extremist perspective of the other side, Wald said. People need to remember that this election is not the end-all be-all of our future.

Activism is activismno matter if you are left or right-wing, Wald continued. We have students that got out and helped for a variety of different elections, with canvassing or other volunteering. There are students advocating for tons of different causes, and I truly think that everyone wants the best, we just might not agree on how to go about fixing problems.

Seattle Us chapter of the Federalist Society, a group of conservative and libertarian students, hosted an event Nov. 6 with Dale Carpenter, a professor of constitutional law and LGBTQ rights. The Zoom event, addressed emerging threats to free speech on college campuses, enabled students to voice common concerns over potential university infringements on free speech rights.

President Donald Trump also signed an executive order March 22 of 2019 titled, Improving Free Inquiry, Transparency and Accountability at Colleges and Universities. In his speech announcing the decision, he specifically cited far-right activists who are increasingly popular amongst young conservatives, such as Charlie Kirk and Candace Owens.

Under the guise of speech codes and safe spaces and trigger warnings, these universities have tried to restrict free thought, impose total conformity and shut down the voices of great young Americans, Trump said.

Carpenter elaborated on these fears, and spoke to a small group of students who share President Trumps concern about free speech.

University policy should seek to establish an environment that is free of sexism, racism, ageism, homophobia and other kinds of prejudice, Carpenter said. But no person or group merely by claiming offense should be able to bring down the disciplinary machinery of the university.

Seattle Federalist Society President Afton Gregson expressed worry that conservative and libertarian students are being labeled in negative ways.

Everybody will say, well youre against this, youre against gay marriage, youre against abortion, and theres a centrist element here that people miss, and people are ultimatley alienated by the fact that people ascribe them labels that arent necessarily true, which has been a challenge on campus here too, Gregson said.

Isabell Rocha, a JD candidate for the class of 22 and Vice President of the Federalist Society, went to bed the night of the election stressed with little information as to who the next president would be. Although Rocha is glad the election is over, she felt as though it was a messy election, and would like to see what courts rule on the election allegations put forth by President Trump.

Washington State has always been mail-in for a few years now, and the fact that the Trump administration pushed back against states that also wanted to do mail-in [voting], I see that type of claim credible because it was being rushed, Rocha said. However, claims of widespread fraud in the 2020 election are unsubstantiated at the moment.

In terms of moving forward, Rocha expects the country to stay politically divided throughout the next presidency, but hopes that President Trump will concede for the sake of the Republican party.

I think itll reflect really badly on the Republican Party if he doesnt concede and puts up a fight, Rocha said. I think right now, as a whole in the nation, Republicans really need to reevaluate who theyre putting up as candidates and how we represent ourselves. Because right now, it just doesnt look good.

While the election has been called by various news outlets, conservative, libertarian and non-left leaning Seattle U students are waiting to see how the rest of this transition will move forward, as is the rest of the country.

Originally posted here:
Conservative, Libertarian and Non-Left Seattle University Students React to Election Week - The Spectator