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A Conversation With Tonya Millis, Libertarian Candidate For Indiana's 9th District - Indiana Public Media

In 2016, third-party candidates in the pivotal states of Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin and Florida won more votes than President Donald Trump's narrow margins of victory.

In Minnesota, New Hampshire and Nevada, those candidates captured enough votes to dwarf 2016 Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton's own slim margins of victory, too.

This year, third-party candidates are struggling to raise funds, are less well-known and are polling beneath their 2016 predecessors and the unique challenges of campaigning during a pandemic will make reversing those trends nearly impossible.

"I think that there's some good candidates running," Ron Nielson, who managed former New Mexico Gov. Gary Johnson's 2016 Libertarian campaign, said in an interview. "I'm not discounting the candidates running, but they don't have the persona and the charisma has never been developed in those campaigns to capture in the moment. There's just nothing happening."

Four years ago, Trump and Clinton both faced historic levels of unfavorability, opening the door for a more meaningful third-party vote. But the 2020 race between Trump and former Vice President Joe Biden, the Democratic presidential nominee, is different, experts and leading members of both the Libertarian and the Green parties told NBC News.

In some instances, these candidates are not even on the ballot in critical swing states. In Wisconsin and Pennsylvania two of the most hotly contested swing states this cycle Green Party presidential nominee Howie Hawkins will not even appear on the ballot.

Still, Hawkins, a longtime Green Party advocate and perennial candidate for office, said there's a simple reason for why the third-party candidacies have not seen the kind of support that was generated in 2016, when they accounted for more than 5 percent of the national vote.

"It's Trump," Hawkins said, adding that he heard similar reasoning when he ran for governor of New York in 2018.

"I had former supporters, donors, phone bankers, canvassers say, 'I got to vote for [New York Gov. Andrew] Cuomo to resist Trump,'" he said. "Which didn't make any, really, electoral sense. But that's, I think, the mentality. That's why it's been difficult for third parties."

NBC News/Wall Street Journal polling data shows that the lack of a competitive third-party candidate may be more beneficial to Biden than to Trump. In interviews with 215 third-party voters in multiple surveys from January through August, the polling found that 2016 third-party voters are breaking toward Biden over Trump by a more than 2-to-1 margin. As the surveys found, 47 percent of those voters are backing Biden while 20 percent support Trump. One-third of that group is either undecided or backing another candidate.

Jeff Horwitt, senior vice president at Hart Research Associates, which conducts the NBC News/Wall Street Journal polls, said last time around those who voted third party "really did not like either candidate."

"And in our research across the year, it's not as though they have great feelings about Biden," he said. "But when you compare their feelings around the questions, positive, negative scales and things like that, Trump's standing is just much, much worse."

The split in this group between those who are now backing Biden and those who support Trump serves as "a really important sign for where things are headed," Horwitt added.

Lack of name recognition could also be a factor. In 2016, the Libertarian ticket featured two former governors, while the Green Party nominated Jill Stein, who had been the party's presidential candidate in 2012. The 2020 third-party and independent field features Hawkins and Libertarian nominee Jo Jorgensen, a Clemson University professor who was the party's vice presidential nominee in 1996. There's also rap mogul Kanye West, who is only on the ballot in a handful of states and has said he is "walking," not running for office, and a collage of lesser-known candidates run as the standard-bearers of tickets like the Constitution Party.

Fundraising provides a snapshot of the tough spot third-party candidates find themselves in this cycle. In 2016, Johnson raised more than $11 million and Stein more than $3 million. This cycle, Jorgensen had raised about $1.4 million as of August, while Hawkins has brought in about $300,000. West has raised just more than $11,000, discounting funds he has provided his campaign, according to the Federal Election Commission.

And while more well-known business executives and politicians ranging from Mark Cuban and Howard Schultz to Rep. Justin Amash, I-Mich., contemplated third-party or independent bids, they opted to stay on the sidelines. Others, like billionaire Mike Bloomberg, who has mulled independent bids in years past, ran in the Democratic primary this year, while former Massachusetts Gov. Bill Weld, Johnson's running mate in 2016, ultimately opted to run against Trump in the Republican primary.

In an interview with NBC News, Weld said the 2020 third-party environment is what it is because "people are scared of Mr. Trump" and "think that he's a dangerous person."

"And so, that would lead many people I think in both those parties, the party of Jill Stein and the party of Gary Johnson to vote for Biden," he said. "Whereas in an ordinary year, they might not vote for the Democrat."

Weld said those invested in the Libertarian movement who backed his ticket in 2016 would not have much of a stomach for Trump, citing what he described as abuses of the Department of Justice, the federal government and law.

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"The Libertarians are very much conscious of the wise restraints that keep men free and they want to be able to operate within that world," he said. "And Mr. Trump is not really being too subtle about the fact that he would like to remove those parameters of our system of democracy and freedom."

But Nielson said Trump might actually be missing an opportunity to make inroads.

"There's a lot of Liberty movement voters who are somewhat undecided," Nielson said. "I think that there's a lot of them that would probably like to vote for Trump and I think that they're trying to bring themselves in that direction. I think that would be the option that I think a lot of them are probably weighing out is whether they can vote for Trump or not."

Hawkins said he believes Biden will deliver the decisive victory that current polling projects but warned the former vice president will "disappoint" progressives, which Hawkins thinks will give his party new life.

"That's our opportunity. Right now, it's tough for us," he said, adding he hopes 2020 is "just a sort of one-off situation."

"So I think our longer-term prospects are a lot better than the next [few] weeks," he said.

Read more from the original source:
'Nothing happening': Third-party candidacies appear less a factor in 2020 - NBC News

BOSTON From Ross Perot's Reform Party in the 1990s presidential elections to Ralph Nader's bid for the presidency on the Green Party ticket in 2000, third-party candidates are often called spoilers who siphon votes from a Democratic or Republican candidate and help tip the race to their opponent.

It's happened locally, in 6th Congressional District race in 2012, when Democrat John Tierney squeaked out a win with 48% of the vote and Republican Richard Tisei came in second with 47%. Libertarian candidate Dan Fishman placed a distant third, but peeled away 4.5% of the vote.

Third-parties blame the "winner-take-all" voting system, in part, for marginalizing their candidates. Many pin their hopes for a better showing in the future to a proposal on the November ballot to switch to a "ranked choice" system that asks voters to weigh candidates in order of preference.

"I definitely think it would help us as a party," said Christina Crawford, treasurer and former chairwoman of the Libertarian Party of Massachusetts, which has endorsed the changes. "We will start getting more votes, and because of that I think we'll see more people interested in running for office as Libertarians."

Crawford believes so strongly in the cause she has contributed more than $17,000 of her own money into the Yes on 2 campaign.

Question 2 on the Nov. 3 ballot, if approved, would upend how the state has chosen congressional, state and municipal leaders for hundreds of years. Ballots would look different, voters would have do more homework, and close races might not be decided on Election Day.

Under the system, voters rank candidates in order of preference. If no candidate gets more than 50% of the vote, the last-place candidate is removed from the running and votes for that candidate are redistributed based on their supporters' second choices.

This "instant runoff" process repeats until one candidate has picked up more than 50% of the vote.

While some cities, including San Francisco and Cambridge, have used ranked choice voting for years, Maine is the only state to make the switch broadly. It will use ranked choice in the Nov. 3 presidential election, after the state's Supreme Judicial Court rejected a GOP-led effort aimed at preventing its use.

Driven by voter dissatisfaction with the two major parties, Libertarians have seen a surge in numbers in recent years, even as other parties shrink. Despite that, Libertarian candidates have yet to win any federal or statewide offices and have performed poorly in recent elections.

Supporters of ranked choice say it will essentially break the two-party hold on elections, giving Libertarians and other third-party candidates a better chance.

Critics of ranked choice voting say the changes will only redistribute votes among Republican or Democratic candidates and won't benefit third parties.

They also criticize the system as confusing.

"Libertarians have this fantasy that ranked choice voting is going to deliver them to the promised land," said Anthony Amore, a 2018 Republican nominee for secretary of state and interim spokesman for the No on 2 committee. "When, in fact, nowhere has it ever elevated a third party."

Christian M. Wade covers the Massachusetts Statehouse forThe Salem News and its sisternewspapers and websites. Email him at cwade@cnhi.com.

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Read more from the original source:
Third parties pin hopes on ranked choice voting - The Salem News

Mike Conner Jr., Iowa View contributor Published 10:16 a.m. CT Oct. 6, 2020

Jake Porter, Libertarian candidate for governor, meets with the Register's editorial board. Des Moines Register

The mainstream media may not publicize it often, but America is fed up.

Of course, this comes as no surprise to me. Ive been hearing it from voters from all sides for years. Iowa and Americas voter registration numbers show it with an increase in independent and third party voters over the past fouryears. This despite the best efforts from both Democrats and Republicans to strengthen their political tribes through legislation and other bullying means.

The frustration that America is feeling was reinforced following the debacle that was the first presidential debate this past Tuesday. For two hours, Donald Trump and Joe Biden displayed their amazing ability to dodge questions or issues that affect citizens, while turning the debate into no more than an infantile Twitter argument.

This is what American politics has devolved into 167 years of two parties being in power has culminated in a hyper-partisan tug of war for power over the people.

All over social media, Americans expressed their embarrassment for the pathetic exhibition. Even the mainstream media found it next to impossible to spin this in a way to make it palatable.

Libertarian Party candidate for President, Jo Jorgensen, addresses the crowd during a campaign stop in Westfield, Ind., at Grand Park Sunday, Sept. 27, 2020. A few hundred people attended her only scheduled campaign stop in Indiana.(Photo: Doug McSchooler/for IndyStar)

Google search trends for Jo Jorgensen, Libertarian Candidate, and Third Party shot through the roof after the debate. Jo Jorgensens campaign website received so much traffic that it temporarily crashed. Third party social media pages and groups were flooded with new likes and follows. The appetite for another option is definitely there.

Personally, I spoke with multiple friends who were disheartened by the display. They are sick and tired of the status quo, but still couldnt yet justify wasting their vote on a third party candidate.

To me, I see it the other way around why waste your vote on the status quo?

A vote for Jo Jorgensen can do so much more than a vote for either Biden or Trump. If she is able to get 2% in Iowa, that means Libertarians are considered a major party in Iowa, which immediately gives Iowa LP candidates credibility. If she can collect 5% of the vote, that means the 2024 LP candidate would qualify for public matching funds. That would be a game-changer and instantly makethe Libertarian Party a contender.

You can vote for the status quo and continue to get the sideshow that you saw this past Tuesday, or your vote can actually have an impact on the political direction of the country and get us one step closer to a legitimate third option.

So I agree. As proven by the appalling debate, this election is far too important to waste your vote on Trump or Biden next month.

Mike Conner Jr.(Photo: Special to the Register)

Mike Conner Jr. is the state chair of the Libertarian Party of Iowa.

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Election politics have devolved. The Libertarian Party has something different to offer. - Des Moines Register

New Zealands election is coming down to a simple contest between the Labour-Green bloc on the left and the National-ACT bloc on the right. Although the right is behind in the polls, if it were to gain the majority, ACT Party leader David Seymour could become deputy prime minister.

Either way, ACT is newly assertive. Although Seymour owes his Epsom seat to Nationals grace and favour, he seems less inclined nowadays to be their political lapdog. He wants people to support ACT on its own terms.

Remarkably, the party has risen in opinion polls from below 1% to recently as high as 8%. That would give ACT up to ten seats in parliament. Would Seymour also negotiate to bring one or more first-time MPs into cabinet alongside him?

In the past two elections, ACT held on with only one electorate seat, thanks to the National Party deal: Epsoms National supporters agree to vote for the ACT candidate as their local representative but give their party vote to National.

This arrangement goes back to 2005. It paid a handsome dividend in 2008 when ACT won Epsom and achieved 3.65% in the party vote. This delivered the party a proportional share of five seats, despite being below the 5% party-vote threshold.

With ACTs support on the right, and two other parties in the centre, John Key formed a National-led government that lasted three terms. Then ACTs party vote fell below 1% in 2014 and 2017, with only the Epsom seat keeping it in parliament.

In 2020, however, after a term in opposition and no longer overshadowed by National, ACT is flourishing again.

Seymour has held his own, speaking up for freedom of speech and opposing the banning of semi-automatic guns following the mosque shootings in March 2019. He introduced a members bill to permit euthanasia that is likely to come into force after a decisive referendum to be held alongside the general election.

However, National leader Judith Collins has bluntly stated she sees ACTs job as being to win Epsom and to help eliminate the populist New Zealand First Party, which on recent polling is likely to be ousted from parliament on October 17.

Read more: The missing question from New Zealand's cannabis debate: what about personal freedom and individual rights?

ACTs rise in the polls does come partly from those conservative erstwhile New Zealand First voters who are disillusioned with Winston Peters for forming a coalition government with Labour.

But Collins must be worried that some centre-right voters have given up on National winning and are exercising their freedom of choice by defecting to ACT and she wants them back.

The Association of Consumers and Taxpayers was founded in 1993 by former National cabinet minister Derek Quigley and Sir Roger Douglas, formerly minister of finance in David Langes Labour government and engineer of the economic deregulation that became known as Rogernomics.

The party stands for less government, more private enterprise and freedom of choice. It is therefore a child of neoliberalism indeed, its only legitimate child.

Read more: Assisted dying referendum: people at the end of their lives say it offers a 'good death'

For example, Seymours referendum bill to allow assisted dying (euthanasia) was officially named the End of Life Choice Bill, asserting its ideological origins with the word choice. He is proposing much more radical cuts to public spending and taxation than his only possible coalition partner, National.

We gained an insight into how ACT supporters think from the online reader-initiated Stuff/Massey opinion poll in July. Compared with the other parties in parliament, ACT supporters stand out as:

most likely to rate the New Zealand governments overall response to COVID-19 as unsuccessful: 29.5% compared with 9.9% for the whole sample

most strongly in favour of abolishing the Mori electoral roll: 68.2% compared with 36.6% overall

more likely to prefer that the government take a cautious and sceptical approach on climate change: 72.5% compared with 36.4% overall

more in favour of the country getting back to business as usual rather than reforming the economic system itself during the post-pandemic rebuild: 75% compared with 31% overall.

ACT supporters values are largely diametrically opposed to those upheld by Green supporters, as might be expected of a libertarian party that stands for individualism and deregulation.

In the past, though, the party has resorted to populist law-and-order and anti-welfare policies. In 2011 it deployed the one law for all slogan to attack policies addressing indigenous rights.

As ACT leader since 2014, Seymour has steered the party back towards free-market liberalism. But there is still an element of right-wing populist thinking among ACTs supporters.

Sizeable minorities of them agree with conspiracy theories about COVID-19 (25%) and hope Donald Trump is re-elected in November (32%) more than among National supporters who stood at about 20% on both points.

Read more: NZ election 2020: survey shows voters are divided on climate policy and urgency of action

If current polling holds true, Seymour will bring with him into parliament a caucus of freedom-loving individuals, none of whom has any previous representative experience.

Among them is a firearms enthusiast, a former police officer and a farmer. At number seven on the list is a self-employed mother of four who the party claims is better than ten ivory tower experts when it comes to beating poverty.

So far, ACTs best election result was in 2002 when it gained 7.14% of the party vote and nine seats in the 120-seat House of Representatives. If it repeats that in 2020, Seymour will go from being a lone voice for his party to the leader of a small but inexperienced caucus.

Managing that team of individualistic newbies may well be the first test of his libertarian instincts.

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The rise of ACT in 2020 highlights tensions between the party's libertarian and populist traditions - The Conversation AU