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Among the millions of words being poured out about the political ramifications of The Donalds brush with coronavirus, I have seen little on how it affects his war with science. If he bounces back quickly, like his ally Jair Bolsonaro in Brazil, he may well double down on the theory that Covid-19 is a minor inconvenience just like flu and attribute his recovery to one of the unproven remedies, which someone has encouraged him to rely on, or even his own toughness.

For those of us who instinctively put our faith in science, one of the problems we are having in the political debate around the pandemic is that science is proving as difficult to pin down as nailing jelly to the wall. By the time scientific advice is filtered through the policy-making process, we finish up in England, at least with such absurdities as prohibiting two families from organising a children's party for seven in a park, while dozens congregate legally, and apparently safely, inside a badly ventilated pub (at least before 10pm). We are told that scientists have signed off on such nonsense because it fits the theory of R, reducing the overall transmission rate in the population.

There is a buzz in the scientific community around research which suggests that the scientists who advise our government are worrying too much about R and not enough about K. The theory of K dispersion starts with an anomaly: that some places have been devastated by Covid (like Lombardy in Italy) but others, for no obvious reason, much less (southern and central Italy). The horrors of Manaos or Guayaquil have by-passed other cities. The theory of R centres on average transmission rates, while K centres on concentrated clusters originating with a small number of super-spreaders or super-spreading events.

Apparently, only 10 to 20 per cent of infected people are responsible for 80 to 90 per cent of transmission. Most infected people barely transmit it (children hardly at all), though some of those (such as politicians on the stump) meet so many people at close range they can have the same effect as a super-spreader. The infamous Patient 31 in Daegu, South Korea, appears to have single-handedly infected over 5000 people through her evangelical church. The policy implication is that instead of locking down large areas of the country because R has crept above 1, the overwhelming priority is to track down, and isolate, the super-spreaders and minimise events and venues where they can spread the virus.

The one country where this point has been understood and acted upon most effectively is Japan. Japan could have been devastated by Covid and there were plenty of people warning of disaster. It has enormous cities, a very high population density and one of the highest proportions of elderly people in the world. Unlike some of its Asian neighbours, it was not well prepared for the pandemic and did not have a ready mass test and trace system. Unlike China, it was unable, for legal as well as political reasons, to impose a tough lockdown. Mass transport continued and much of normal life. The government relied on persuasion and the public's self-discipline. Japan has had outbreaks and deaths but its Covid death rate is the lowest in the G7.

The Japanese approach, which we ought to be studying carefully, had two main elements: cluster busting, tracing back contacts of infected people to identify clusters and the super-spreader events which gave rise to them; and a preoccupation with ventilation, encouraging people to avoid crowds, in close contact, in closed spaces, especially chanting and singing.

Combined with social distancing, an understanding of the value of masks, and incentives for temporary closure of theatres, music events and stadiums, the country has fared reasonably well. They have suffered just one death per 100,000 people, compared to the UK's 62, and the US's 59. The Japanese economy, the world's third largest, has taken a hit, though not as bad as the worst affected countries like the UK, France, Spain and Italy. Japan seems to have avoided the worst of all worlds experienced in the UK: burdensome and increasingly resented restrictions, unnecessary economic damage and ineffectual mitigation.

The Japanese experience might also prove helpful to Trump. Assuming that he recovers quickly and gets back to the campaign trail, he has to find a way of acknowledging that his cavalier disregard for scientific advice wasn't smart; but, at the same time, he has to keep faith with his libertarian supporters who will not accept formal restrictions. A version of the Japanese approach might play well, especially since Tokyo has gone to extraordinary lengths to keep onside with Trump.

When it comes to emerging from a Covid infection personally, there are some lessons for Trump to learn from his good friend Boris Johnson. There is a sympathy vote but it doesn't last long; and the public expect, above all, competence when their lives and livelihoods are at stake. Another, more painful, lesson is that this is a disease which doesn't always lend itself to swift and permanent recovery. Even if Trump leaves hospital, he could be back on oxygen support in a week's time.

Without claiming any medical knowledge, I am struck, like many British observers, by the fact that our prime minister gives the impression of suffering from long Covid: permanently below par; seemingly exhausted; uncharacteristically slow-witted. It seemed unlikely a few weeks ago but Mr Biden's major selling point in the coming election may prove to be his relatively good health, energy and fitness at 77 years old.

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Trump now needs to balance science with his libertarian instincts he should look to Japan for inspiration - The Independent

Las Vegas, NV, October 05, 2020 --(PR.com)-- Histria Books is pleased to announce the release of All Rise!: The Libertarian Way with Judge Jim Gray by 2012 Libertarian Vice-Presidential Candidate Judge James R. Gray (ret.). The book is published by Gaudium Publishing, an imprint of Histria Books dedicated to outstanding works of non-fiction in a variety of fields. Former Congressman Tom Campbell has penned the foreword to the book.

What do Libertarians believe that sets them apart from other political parties? How do Libertarian values, approaches and principles result in more successful pursuits of happiness than the approaches of other political parties? And how does Judge Jim Gray dare to say that the Libertarians are the only political party in the mainstream of American political thought today? All Rise! The Libertarian Way with Judge Jim Gray attempts to answer all of these questions and more.

All Rise! discusses how government has failed to run economies throughout history, and how it is failing to perform under todays duress, which will leave a legacy of debt to our children and grandchildren. Judge Gray is a recipient of the 2019 Judge Franklin G. West Lifetime Achievement Award from the Orange County Bar Association.

All Rise! The Libertarian Way with judge Jim Gray, 224 pp., ISBN 978-1-59211-080-3, is available at HistriaBooks.com and from all major book retailers. Titles published under the various imprints of Histria Books are distributed worldwide by the Casemate Group. For information on publishing with Histria Books, please visit HistriaBooks.com or contact us at info@histriabooks.com.

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Histria Books Announces the Release of the "All Rise!: The Libertarian Way with Judge Jim Gray" - PR.com

Kitimat resident, Jody Craven has been announced as the British Columbia Libertarian Party candidate for the North Coast Riding MLA position in the upcoming Oct. 24 provincial election, the party announced in press release on Oct. 5.

Issues that are listed in the press release as being important to Craven are solutions to provide more job security in the fishing industry and insurance for British Columbians.

The ICBC monopoly needs to go and we need to open the door for competition in auto insurance, Craven said. As MLA, Id also like to sit down with local fishermen and together come up with solutions to provide more job security in their industry.

Craven said blue collar jobs are very important to him and this region having worked for UNIFOR 2301 and Rio Tinto Alcan Inc. for the past 34 years.

When computers and artificial intelligence came to the wharf, a lot of jobs were lost the NDP didnt fight to protect those workers, which is a shame. I think more collaboration with local industries and stakeholders is needed to build a stronger and more stable community, he said.

Craven isnt a stranger to political candidacy, having run in the 2019 federal election as a representative for the Peoples Party of Canada.

Currently studying at Coast Mountain College, Craven said his experience involves being recently elected to the Board of Directors for The North Matters.

In October 2018, I was invited as a guest speaker at a Potlatch with Northern Health in Gitsegukla. At the end of last year, I attended a fundraiser dinner for the Kitimat Humane Society and was also invited to a Mason fundraiser dinner, he said.

I was also involved in a safe talk environment for the Wetsuweten women, families, chiefs and all the bands that supported Coastal Gas Link on behalf of The North Matters in Houston, B.C. of this year back on March 14th 2020.

Craven said he lives with his wife, Mary, and has two grown sons and a three-year old granddaughter.

I spent some of my early years in Prince Rupert and then eventually settled down in Kitimat. I raised my family in Kitimat and worked in the area since 1980.

The BC Libertarian Party was founded in 1986 with a mandate to advocate for individual liberty, lower taxes, free markets, and social tolerance, said the press release. In 2017 the BC Libertarian Party ran 30 candidates in the provincial elections and has rallied 25 candidates across the province for the upcoming provincial election.

More to come

Election 2020

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Jody Craven of Kitimat in the running for North Coast MLA Prince Rupert Northern View - Prince Rupert Northern View

SIOUX CITY -- Iowans and Nebraskans on Monday can begin casting early ballots in advance of the Nov. 3 general election.

What's long been called absentee voting and now often is termed early voting is a practice that has become increasingly common, and will be especially prevalent this year, as election officials across the nation make changes to carry out voting amid the novel coronavirus pandemic.

In Woodbury County, Auditor Pat Gill said he anticipates the majority of votes, perhaps up to 24,000, will be cast by mail in this election.

In Nebraska, back in late August, Secretary of State Bob Evnen announced his office would mail an early ballot application to every registered voter whose county did not already do so. The effect will be every registered voter in Nebraska will receive an early ballot request application in the mail, Evnen said, and those were sent out Sept. 28.

For voters who have concerns about voting at the polls in November, an early ballot request for a mail-in ballot is a good option, Evnen said.

Woodbury County could have 30 polling places for November election

The Nebraska deadline to request an early ballot to be mailed is Oct. 23, and any such ballot must be received to county clerk offices by Nov. 3.

Additionally, lots of early voting is also expected in South Dakota, where it began on Sept. 18.

Union County Auditor Jackie Sieverding is urging that method, saying in a statement on the county website that about 40 percent of South Dakota voters cast absentee ballots.

In Iowa, Secretary of State Paul Pate, the state's election official, four weeks ago said, "I easily could see 80 percent of the people casting their ballot in the fall election will use absentee."

That would match the absentee vote in the June primary that shattered turnout records. More than 531,000 Iowans voted in the primary, with about 110,000 of them voting in person. Pate said typically about 40 percent of Iowa voters cast absentee ballots.

Parties bemoan campaign yard sign 'sabotage' in Sioux City

As for what is on ballots, the obvious big contest is the important battle for the U.S. presidency. In national polls Donald Trump, the Republican president, is trailing Joe Biden, the Democratic former vice president, a month out from the election.

Beyond the typical county and legislative contests, 2020 is the infrequent even-numbered year in which not only are congressional positions on the ballot, but there are contests in all three Siouxland states for U.S. Senate seats.

U.S. SENATE

The three Republican incumbent U.S. senators seeking re-election are also all first-termers seeking six more years. The list includes Joni Ernst in Iowa, Ben Sasse in Nebraska and Mike Rounds in South Dakota. The Democratic opponents include Theresa Greenfield in Iowa, Dan Ahlers in South Dakota and it is more complicated in Nebraska.

WATCH NOW: Ernst, Greenfield trade criticism in heated Senate debate

Omaha professor Preston Love Jr. is the Democrats' preferred choice as a write-in candidate, after fellow Democrat Chris Janicek won the primary and remains on the ballot. Love has to compete as a write-in candidate because Janicek is pledging to stay in the race as the official nominee despite pressure from party leaders to drop out after he sent lewd texts about a campaign staffer. Also opposing Sasse is Gene Sladek, of the Libertarian Party.

U.S. HOUSE

Covering U.S. House seats, in the Iowa 4th District, incumbent Steve King was ousted in the Republican primary by state Sen. Randy Feenstra of Hull, who now faces Democratic nominee J.D. Scholten. In 2018, Scholten, of Sioux City, lost to King by just 3 percentage points.

In South Dakota's sole House seat, incumbent Republican Dusty Johnson is seeking a second term. Johnson is opposed by Randy Luallin, of the Libertarian Party. No Democratic candidate received enough signatures to get on the ballot.

In Nebraska's 1st District, longtime Republican incumbent Rep. Jeff Fortenberry is opposed by Kate Bolz, a Democrat, and Dennis Grace, a Libertarian. In the Third District, Republican incumbent Adrian Smith's opponents are Mark Elworth, a Democrat, and Dustin Hobbs, a Libertarian.

6 weeks to election, Scholten, Feenstra aiming for finish line in Iowa's 4th District

Event to register Black voters to be held in Sioux City, with actor Williams as guest

Trump team bus tour in Sioux City warns Democrats want 'chaos'

Presidential candidates absent in Iowa during 2020 campaign

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One month to election day, early voting measures underway in Siouxland - Southernminn.com

Christina Hagan, the Republican challenging nine-term incumbent Tim Ryan, said the Democrat has failed basic representation.

Ryan, D-Howland, said Hagan of Marlboro Township, is out of step with the district. Shes completely out of touch.

The two are facing each other in the race for the 13th Congressional District seat.

Also, Michael Fricke of Kent is on the ballot as a Libertarian but said he expects to get 5 percent to 7 percent of the vote and doesnt plan to raise even $5,000 for his campaign.

Ryan touts his nearly 18 years of experience as a member of Congress and his position on the House Appropriations Committee as putting the district and particularly the Mahoning Valley in a place where it can grow after the closure of Lordstown General Motors.

Between Lordstown Motors Corps all-electric Endurance being built at the former GM plant and Ultium Cells LLC a joint venture between GM and LG Chem under construction nearby as well as a TJX HomeGoods distribution center, weve got a hell of a shot to build an ecosystem and create thousands of jobs, Ryan said.

Were finally diversifying into areas of the economy that are growing, he said. There are a lot of job opportunities out there in our area.

The five-county 13th District includes most of Mahoning and Trumbull counties. The job pays $174,000 annually.

To change representation now, Ryan said, would be the wrong decision.

Ive got a long substantive record, he said. She doesnt live in the district.

Hagan lives about a mile outside the 13th District. She ran and lost in the 2018 Republican primary for the 16th District seat. She doesnt live in that district either.

But Hagan said: Its a gimmick at best to say Im foreign to this district.

If she wins the election, Hagan said she would move into the district and is already starting to look for homes near Alliance.

Hagan said voters are ready for a fresh change. Congressman Tim Ryan has failed basic representation. He was elected as a pro-life, pro-gun candidate, and hes abandoned those positions.

She also said Ryan being on the Appropriations Committee hasnt helped our district. Whether hes in a position of power or not, hes not succeeded.

Ryan said hes brought back more than $4.6 billion in federal funds for the district, largely because of his seat on Appropriations.

Hagan served in the Ohio House from March 2011 to December 2018.

If elected to Congress, Hagan said her priorities would be to revive the regions economy, create a bipartisan infrastructure bill and tackle regulatory reform.

Not enough has been done to bring back manufacturing jobs to our region or train unemployed workers with new skills, Hagan said. These are easy common sense solutions that we can achieve to fix the problem.

Hagan wants to work with President Donald Trump, who supports her candidacy, to make his tax cuts permanent. Ryan says the tax cuts primarily benefited the wealthy.

Hagan also wants to sponsor a bipartisan infrastructure bill to improve roads, rail and internet access. One option to pay for the costs would be to reallocate funds the nation is spending in Afghanistan.

Trump had talked of a major infrastructure bill during his first presidential campaign and the early part of his administration but hasnt introduced a proposal.

Ryan also supports an infrastructure bill and spoke with Trumps team at the 2017 inauguration about putting one together but never heard from anyone again.

Trump had an opportunity because he won traditional Democratic areas, but he missed with infrastructure, Ryan said.

The Ohio Freedom Fund, a Washington, D.C.-based outside special interest group that helped Hagan in the Republican primary, also is working to get her elected in the general election.

The fund spent $97,500 to support Hagan in the primary and is expected to spend at least that much in the general election.

Its a dark money group that has a relationship with her, Ryan said.

Hagan said the fund wants to see new leadership in the district. They see this as a potential pickup seat.

During her failed bid in 2018 for the 16th District seat, the Conservative Leadership Alliance, a dark money group with ties to FirstEnergy, spent more than $100,000 against her.

I have general concerns about dark money, Hagan said. Transparency should be part of it. But I have no control over (the Ohio Freedom Fund). I have no contract with them.

This is Frickes first time running for elected office.

A Libertarian, Fricke acknowledges that hes going to raise little money and wont do well in the election.

Im a realist, he said. Im probably not going to be elected. Libertarians take 5, 6, 7 percent of the vote. Eventually, major party candidates are going to want that 5, 6, 7 percent, and theyll pay attention to us for that. People arent going to vote for me to win but to make a change.

Fricke is campaigning on bringing back troops home and ending the nations involvement in wars in the Middle East, balancing the federal budget and supporting personal freedoms. That includes no restrictions on same-sex marriages and no government censorship or regulation of social media and technology. He also wants to decriminalize marijuana and strongly supports a persons right to bear arms.

Tim Ryan

AGE: 47

POLITICAL PARTY: Democrat

OCCUPATION: Congressman

PREVIOUS ELECTED EXPERIENCE: Nine-term congressman, former Ohio state senator

GOALS: Focus on making the Mahoning Valley an electronic vehicle and battery hub, job growth and improved health and wellness

NOTABLE QUOTE: The plan is to diversify and thats what were doing.

Christina Hagan

AGE: 31

POLITICAL PARTY: Republican

OCCUPATION: Fund development manager for ICU Mobile

PREVIOUS ELECTED EXPERIENCE: State representative from March 2011 to December 2018

GOALS: Revive the economy in Northeast Ohio, support an infrastructure bill and regulatory reform

NOTABLE QUOTE: I would provide a unique voice in Congress.

Michael Fricke

AGE: 46

POLITICAL PARTY: Libertarian

OCCUPATION: Senior scientist at Olon Ricerca Bioscience

PREVIOUS ELECTED EXPERIENCE: None

GOALS: Bring home the military, balance the budget and supporting personal freedoms

NOTABLE QUOTE: I want to give people options.

Oct 4, 2020

Christina Hagan, the Republican challenging nine-term incumbent Tim Ryan, said the Democrat has failed basic representation.

Ryan, D-Howland, said Hagan of Marlboro Township, is out of step with the district. Shes completely out of touch.

The two are facing each other in the race for the 13th Congressional District seat.

Also, Michael Fricke of Kent is on the ballot as a Libertarian but said he expects to get 5 percent to 7 percent of the vote and doesnt plan to raise even $5,000 for his campaign.

Ryan touts his nearly 18 years of experience as a member of Congress and his position on the House Appropriations Committee as putting the district and particularly the Mahoning Valley in a place where it can grow after the closure of Lordstown General Motors.

Between Lordstown Motors Corps all-electric Endurance being built at the former GM plant and Ultium Cells LLC a joint venture between GM and LG Chem under construction nearby as well as a TJX HomeGoods distribution center, weve got a hell of a shot to build an ecosystem and create thousands of jobs, Ryan said.

Were finally diversifying into areas of the economy that are growing, he said. There are a lot of job opportunities out there in our area.

The five-county 13th District includes most of Mahoning and Trumbull counties. The job pays $174,000 annually.

To change representation now, Ryan said, would be the wrong decision.

Ive got a long substantive record, he said. She doesnt live in the district.

Hagan lives about a mile outside the 13th District. She ran and lost in the 2018 Republican primary for the 16th District seat. She doesnt live in that district either.

But Hagan said: Its a gimmick at best to say Im foreign to this district.

If she wins the election, Hagan said she would move into the district and is already starting to look for homes near Alliance.

Hagan said voters are ready for a fresh change. Congressman Tim Ryan has failed basic representation. He was elected as a pro-life, pro-gun candidate, and hes abandoned those positions.

She also said Ryan being on the Appropriations Committee hasnt helped our district. Whether hes in a position of power or not, hes not succeeded.

Ryan said hes brought back more than $4.6 billion in federal funds for the district, largely because of his seat on Appropriations.

Hagan served in the Ohio House from March 2011 to December 2018.

If elected to Congress, Hagan said her priorities would be to revive the regions economy, create a bipartisan infrastructure bill and tackle regulatory reform.

Not enough has been done to bring back manufacturing jobs to our region or train unemployed workers with new skills, Hagan said. These are easy common sense solutions that we can achieve to fix the problem.

Hagan wants to work with President Donald Trump, who supports her candidacy, to make his tax cuts permanent. Ryan says the tax cuts primarily benefited the wealthy.

Hagan also wants to sponsor a bipartisan infrastructure bill to improve roads, rail and internet access. One option to pay for the costs would be to reallocate funds the nation is spending in Afghanistan.

Trump had talked of a major infrastructure bill during his first presidential campaign and the early part of his administration but hasnt introduced a proposal.

Ryan also supports an infrastructure bill and spoke with Trumps team at the 2017 inauguration about putting one together but never heard from anyone again.

Trump had an opportunity because he won traditional Democratic areas, but he missed with infrastructure, Ryan said.

The Ohio Freedom Fund, a Washington, D.C.-based outside special interest group that helped Hagan in the Republican primary, also is working to get her elected in the general election.

The fund spent $97,500 to support Hagan in the primary and is expected to spend at least that much in the general election.

Its a dark money group that has a relationship with her, Ryan said.

Hagan said the fund wants to see new leadership in the district. They see this as a potential pickup seat.

During her failed bid in 2018 for the 16th District seat, the Conservative Leadership Alliance, a dark money group with ties to FirstEnergy, spent more than $100,000 against her.

I have general concerns about dark money, Hagan said. Transparency should be part of it. But I have no control over (the Ohio Freedom Fund). I have no contract with them.

This is Frickes first time running for elected office.

A Libertarian, Fricke acknowledges that hes going to raise little money and wont do well in the election.

Im a realist, he said. Im probably not going to be elected. Libertarians take 5, 6, 7 percent of the vote. Eventually, major party candidates are going to want that 5, 6, 7 percent, and theyll pay attention to us for that. People arent going to vote for me to win but to make a change.

Fricke is campaigning on bringing back troops home and ending the nations involvement in wars in the Middle East, balancing the federal budget and supporting personal freedoms. That includes no restrictions on same-sex marriages and no government censorship or regulation of social media and technology. He also wants to decriminalize marijuana and strongly supports a persons right to bear arms.

dskolnick@tribtoday.com

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Opponents accuse each other of being out of touch - Youngstown Vindicator