Why Hillary Clinton Lost – Being Libertarian (blog)
And no, Sanders wouldnt have won either
Theres been a sort of progressive I told you so narrative going around since the election, asserting that Bernie Sanders would have won. Its an understandable argument. After all, Trumps upset victory was padded by his success with working class whites that very seriously could have gone to Sanders, but it doesnt take into account the whole picture.
Chuck Schumer said, For every blue-collar Democrat we lose in Western Pennsylvania, we will pick up two moderate Republicans in the suburbs in Philadelphia, and you can repeat that in Ohio and Illinois and Wisconsin.
The issue is that the campaign failed to win big enough in Republican-leaning suburbs to make up for the losses. To those who say that the reason Hillary Clinton lost Michigan and Wisconsin was because of a lack of progressive bona fides, Ill give you that point. Ill even be generous and say that could have tilted Pennsylvania, though Im skeptical of that. However, do Rust Belt and Appalachian whites really explain a 9.6 point margin Trump victory in Iowa, or an 8.6 point margin win in Ohio, when Obama won those two states by 5.8 and 3 points, respectively, in 2012? Do whites in the Rust Belt and Appalachia explain how Hillary Clinton most likely would have lost New Hampshire and Colorado had Gary Johnson not been a presence in the election?
Obamacare-induced insurance premium spikes, on the other hand, provide an explanation why suburban voters across the nation tilted towards Trump. One candidate was saying Obamacare was a disaster as people were suffering double-digit premium increases, and the other was acting like there wasnt anything wrong. Obamacare serves as a helpful explanation for some other oddities of the exit polls. How did Trump improve with Latinos over Romney by 2 points (29-27) and blacks by two points (8-6)? A number of suburban blacks and Latinos decided their insurance premiums were the big issue. Why did Trump not do as poorly with college-educated white women as expected? Suburban white women have insurance premiums that are going up and women generally tend to be the ones in American households who handle bills so theyre more exposed to price shifts than men.
Of course, one could argue that Sanders would have pulled the rug out on that issue by attacking Obamacare and pitching single-payer as an alternative. Thankfully this election provides us with a handy counterpoint: Colorado had a referendum on single-payer healthcare. The referendum failed with 73% of Coloradoans voting against it and it never polled higher than the low 40s. Even Colorados Democratic Governor came out against the plan as it would cost over 140% of the state budget. A few years ago Vermont nixed a similar in-state single-payer plan because even uber-liberal Vermont didnt want to deal with the tax increase. If Sanderss response to increasing insurance premium costs would have been to jack up peoples withholding and income taxes, very Republican counties like Bergen County, NJ and Orange County, CA that flipped for Clinton would have stayed very red.
The argument that a real progressive would have won reminds me of people complaining that if Al Gore had been more liberal, Ralph Nader wouldnt have been an issue. Gore being too moderate wasnt why he lost his home state of Tennessee, and why 191,000 self-described liberals voted for George W. Bush in Florida (vs the 34,000 who went for Nader). Democrats lose when they threaten to squeeze whatever they can out of suburbanites. In 2016, holding her Rust Belt losses as a constant, had Clinton focused on suburban voters more and done better with suburban voters of black, Latino, and female persuasions, shed likely have flipped Florida, North Carolina, Arizona, and perhaps even Georgia.
So no, Hillary Clinton didnt lose because she wasnt progressive enough. Hillary Clinton lost because of Obamacare.
* Jacob Linker is a Campus Coordinator with Students For Liberty and the State Chair of Young Americans for Liberty in his state.
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Why Hillary Clinton Lost - Being Libertarian (blog)