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Rand Pauls plan to get himself elected president relies on two long-shot bets coming true.

So far, neither one seems to be going well.

Pauls first wager is that his libertarian-ish ideas will manage to attract Republicans mad about regulation and Democrats mad about government spying forming an entirely new American voting bloc. The leave-me-alone coalition, Paul calls it.

The second bet is a bet on Paul himself a wager that hes an unusually talented politician persuasive enough to build a coalition out of groups that have never viewed themselves as allies.

This week, Pauls ideas put him at the middle of a national controversy when he applied his trademark libertarian, skeptical thinking to the question of childhood vaccines. They should be largely voluntary, Paul said, as a matter of freedom. He also said he had heard of children who wound up with profound mental disorders after vaccines.

At times, he has seemed uninterested in or unprepared for the basic tasks of being a national politician.

For instance, this week he shushed a female interviewer on national TV. After his vaccine comments drew angry reactions, he accused the media of misconstruing his remarks about vaccines and mental disorders.

I did not say vaccines caused disorders, just that they were temporally related, Paul said in a statement. I did not allege causation.

Paul could not be reached for comment for this article, and e-mails seeking comment from aides at his political action committee, RANDPAC, were not returned. A spokesman for Pauls Senate office, when asked whether Paul could comment about his missteps this week, wrote back with a one-word message.

Seriously? spokesman Brian Darling wrote.

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For Rand Paul, a rude awakening to the rigors of a national campaign

DES MOINES Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul laid the groundwork for a possible 2016 Republican presidential bid Friday by offering a message he believes will appeal to the party's conservative base while attracting young and independent-minded Iowans fed up with a federal government over-reaching into their lives.

"I would be someone who is conservative with a little bit of libertarian-ish flavor," said Paul, 52, a member of the U.S. Senate since 2011 and son of former GOP presidential candidate and U.S. Rep. Ron Paul of Texas. He said he would decide his own presidential intentions sometime in March or April.

Paul held an "audit the fed" rally at a local winery that drew more than 200 supporters who cheered his call for bringing more transparency to the Federal Reserve Bank and its lending practices, easing harsh drug penalties, defeating Loretta Lynch as President Barack Obama's U.S. attorney general nominee and taking a go-slow approach to international military intervention.

The Kentucky senator said he has not been afraid to challenge the current administration by suing the president over NSA spying and he plans to lead the charge in building public pressure to allow the General Accounting Agency to do an independent audit of federal banking and lending practices that put trillions of taxpayer dollars at risk.

"I think we need some sunshine," he declared.

Paul expressed concern that Obama has tilted the separation of governmental power by using executive orders to write law and he pledged to restore balance among the competing branches and not overstep foreign policy boundaries by making U.S. military commitments without congressional approval.

"You're going to get a choice on who the nominee is for the Republican Party. You're going to have nine, 10, 15, 20 who are eager to go and want troops on the ground. They want 100,000 troops on the ground right now," Paul told the Iowa crowd.

"If there's one true thing I can tell you that I think they cannot object to that the facts clearly demonstrate - every time we have toppled a secular dictator, we've gotten chaos and we've gotten a rise in radical Islam and we've been less safe.

"I can tell you if things move forward, whether I'm in the Senate or I do run for the nomination, I can tell there will be one loud voice in our party saying think of the unintended consequences," he said, noting that he would always seriously weigh "what we're going to accomplish and whether it will work before we go to war."

Paul said Iowans appear to be evenly split on the deployment of U.S. troops in international conflicts and he sees his position as an asset among the developing 2016 GOP presidential field because he believes in a strong national defense but is not eager to be involved in foreign wars unless there is an American interest at stake.

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