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(CNN) -- In one of the most closely-watched Senate races of the year, incumbent Democratic Sen. Kay Hagan of North Carolina holds a narrow three-point advantage over her Republican challenger, according to a new CNN/ORC International survey.

But the poll indicates that Thom Tillis, the GOP nominee, may be falling behind Hagan because a Libertarian candidate could be siphoning off Republican votes.

Hagan edges Tillis, 46%-43%, while Libertarian Sean Haugh has support from 7% likely voters, according to the poll.

The three-point gap between Tillis and Hagan, however, is well within the poll's sampling error of plus or minus four percentage points among likely voters, meaning the candidates are about even.

The race is one of eight Senate contests that CNN rates as "up for grabs" this fall. As Republicans seek to retake the Senate majority, they consider North Carolina one of their best chances to pick up a Democratic seat.

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Since Hagan was first elected in 2008, North Carolina has transitioned from somewhat of a purple state to solid red territory. Republicans took the governorship and seized both houses in the state Legislature, and North Carolina was one of two states that voted for Barack Obama in 2008 but Mitt Romney in 2012.

Hagan's favorable rating is 46%, indicating that everyone who likes her is going to vote for her. But Tillis gets a 47% favorable rating among likely voters, yet only 43% of the vote.

"That suggests that there are voters who would probably choose Tillis in a two-way race but aren't going to vote for him in a three-way contest," said CNN Polling Director Keating Holland.

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CNN Poll: In North Carolina Senate race, Libertarian could be spoiler

(CNN) -

In one of the most closely-watched Senate races of the year, incumbent Democratic Sen. Kay Hagan of North Carolina holds a narrow three-point advantage over her Republican challenger, according to a new CNN/ORC International survey.

But the poll indicates that Thom Tillis, the GOP nominee, may be falling behind Hagan because a Libertarian candidate could be siphoning off Republican votes.

Hagan edges Tillis, 46%-43%, while Libertarian Sean Haugh has support from 7% likely voters, according to the poll.

The three-point gap between Tillis and Hagan, however, is well within the poll's sampling error of plus or minus four percentage points among likely voters, meaning the candidates are about even.

The race is one of eight Senate contests that CNN rates as "up for grabs" this fall. As Republicans seek to retake the Senate majority, they consider North Carolina one of their best chances to pick up a Democratic seat.

Since Hagan was first elected in 2008, North Carolina has transitioned from somewhat of a purple state to solid red territory. Republicans took the governorship and seized both houses in the state Legislature, and North Carolina was one of two states that voted for Barack Obama in 2008 but Mitt Romney in 2012.

Hagan's favorable rating is 46 percent, indicating that everyone who likes her is going to vote for her. But Tillis gets a 47 percent favorable rating among likely voters, yet only 43 percent of the vote.

"That suggests that there are voters who would probably choose Tillis in a two-way race but aren't going to vote for him in a three-way contest," said CNN Polling Director Keating Holland.

While Haugh only has the backing of 7 percent of voters, his presence in the race could be hugely influential if Tillis ends up losing to Hagan by just a few percentage points.

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Poll: Libertarian could spoil N.C. race

Progressive: #39;Libertarian Reagonomics Caused the Rise of ISIS #39;
Progressive talk show host Thom Hartmann argued on Russia Today that #39;libertarian Reagaonomics #39; fueled the rise of ISIS in the Middle East.

By: Austin Petersen

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Progressive: 'Libertarian Reagonomics Caused the Rise of ISIS' - Video

RALEIGH - The man who might determine the outcome of North Carolina's U.S. Senate race this year makes his living delivering pizza, conducts most of his campaigning via YouTube videos and is considering whether to become a driver for Uber, the taxi-like car service.

Political experts and polls say Libertarian Sean Haugh of Durham isn't likely to win, although he says he can.

But the polls say Haugh appears to be pulling some voters who otherwise would pick lawyer and former bank executive Kay Hagan, the incumbent Democrat, and many more voters from the Republican candidate, state House speaker and former business executive Thom Tillis.

In the face of the tens of millions of dollars being spent by the mainline campaigns and their outside supporters and detractors to flood North Carolina's airwaves, computer screens and mailboxes, low budget may be a generous term to describe the Haugh campaign.

Haugh, whose name rhymes with "saw," estimates he has spent $7,000. "I'll be surprised if I get over ($10,000)," he said.

Social media outlets - Facebook, Twitter and, especially, YouTube - have been Haugh's primary tools to reach out to the voters.

He has made 30 videos since March in the basement rec room of campaign manager Rachel Mills' home. Next to a poker table covered with Hot Wheels tracks, and a few feet from an overflowing toy box (Mills has two young children whose nap times affect the shooting schedule), Haugh sits at a bar and talks to the camera. He has a craft beer close at hand, opens with a friendly "howdy" and quickly outlines his positions.

The video titles include "Stop the War on Drugs," "Delete the NSA," "Term Limits for Reporters" and "Pollution is a Crime."

The channel has about 235 subscribers. The viewership runs from 125 on the most recent missive, posted Monday, to 13,850 for his opening statement, issued six months ago.

Haugh's campaign page on Facebook has about 1,125 likes. On Twitter, he has about 400 followers.

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Libertarian pizza delivery driver Sean Haugh could decide U.S. Senate election

TAMPA Adrian Wyllie isnt your typical candidate for governor of Florida. Among other things, he campaigns in beer parlors and brags on the stump about his most recent arrests.

But theres method in the seeming madness of Wyllie, the Libertarian wholl be on the ballot in November along with Republican Gov. Rick Scott and his Democratic challenger, former Gov. Charlie Crist.

Wyllie did a statewide tour of campaign stops in craft breweries because he thinks recent legislative proposals that threatened Floridas nascent but booming craft beer industry but didnt pass typified excessive government regulation motivated by crony politics.

The arrests he brags about, the most recent in Collier County, are for driving while refusing to get a drivers license in protest of the new anti-terrorism Real ID system that requires extensive identification. Wyllie says it subjects citizens to potentially excessive government surveillance.

His proposals for how to run state government arent exactly conventional, either.

He wants to cut the state budget by 30 percent; abolish environmental regulations, marriage licenses and property taxes on homesteads; fully legalize marijuana; and convert the state to a kind of gold standard. Florida, he says, should pay all its bills with gold or silver coins.

Wyllie says his ideas are necessary to save Florida from what he calls the growing totalitarian state, which he says is imbued with waste, cronyism and corruption.

I cant say I really want to be governor, but I recognize the need, he told a small crowd of students at St. Petersburg College last week.

One of his first challenges is how to tell people what Libertarians stand for.

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Libertarian in governorand#x2019;s race fears totalitarian state