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The NY Post today makes a troubling claim, attributed to FBI whistleblowers -- that without probable cause Facebook has given the FBI the private posts of conservatives upset about the 2020 election, triggering numerous investigations.

The Post article offers some compelling details. My favorite is the agents' complaint that the project produced a very large volume of data about people who weren't really threats, thus wasting investigative resources. If you want to inspire FBI agents to discover their inner civil libertarian and blow the whistle on a surveillance program, nothing does the job better than giving them lots of intrusive but unproductive make-work.

But as the story is written, it has one big problem. The conduct it describes would violate the law in a way that neither the FBI nor Facebook would likely be comfortable doing. Federal law mostly prohibits electronic service providers from voluntarily supplying customer data to the government.

What's more, Facebook has issued a denial. A very careful denial. It says that "the suggestion we seek out peoples' private messages for anti-government language or questions about the validity of past elections and then proactively supply those to the FBI is plainly inaccurate and there is zero evidence to support it."

A compound denial like that often means that portions or slight variations of the statement are true. Thus, if Facebook is screening for something just a bit more alarming than "anti-government language or questions about the validity of past elections," the denial is inoperative.

The Post tries to square the denial with its story by suggesting that the FBI has recruited a Facebook employee as a confidential human source (CHS). I doubt that. Being a CHS doesn't mean you can do things with your employer's data that your employer can't do. And I doubt the FBI would feel free to evade a limit on its investigative power by using a CHS this way.

But there is a provision of federal law that allows electronic service providers to volunteer information to law enforcement. To do so, they need to believe "in good faith that an emergency involving danger of death or serious physical injury to any person requires disclosure without delay of communications relating to the emergency." 18 USC 2702(c).

So, Facebook and other Silicon Valley companies could have developed an AI engine to search for strings of words that its legal department has precleared -- in good faith -- as evidence of an emergency involving a danger of death or serious injury. (And after the fact, the injuries that occurred in the January 6 riot could be used to predict such a danger from a lot of antigovernment and "rigged election" talk.)

These passages could be excerpted by social media platforms, along with identifying information, and sent to Justice, under the "danger of death or injury" exception. Justice could then use them to subpoena all of the less inflammatory posts by the same people and then farm out the results to local FBI offices for investigation across the country.

Important caveat: I have no way of knowing whether any of this is happening. I'm just trying to find a legal way in which the troubling facts in the Post story could be true. The program I've sketched above would better fit the facts in the story, including the Facebook denial and the improbability that FBI and Justice are flouting the law.

But just because something is legal doesn't mean it's a good idea. Any mass effort to find "bad" speech on a big social media platform is bound to make a lot of mistakes, as all students of content moderation know.

And, as with content moderation, no one would be surprised if mass Silicon Valley criminal referrals were biased against conservatives. (That bias would be built in if Justice is using an existing grand jury tied to January 6 to generate the subpoenas.)

So, assuming I'm right, it's fair to ask how any such effort was designed, how aggressively conservative complaints were turned into emergency threats to life and limb, who's overseeing the process to prevent overbroad seizures of legitimate speech, and whether the same thing could be done to Black Lives Matter, environmental groups, animal rights campaigners, and any other movement whose more extreme followers have sometimes lapsed into violence.

Edited to fix broken link and make clear that the allegation in the story relates to private messages.

Original post:
Is Silicon Valley Spying on Conservatives for the FBI? - Reason

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The Texas Supreme Court on Friday rejected a Republican effort to remove a host of Libertarian candidates from the November ballot, saying the GOP did not bring their challenge soon enough.

In a unanimous opinion, the all-GOP court did not weigh in on the merits of the challenge but said the challenge came too late in the election cycle. The Libertarian Party nominated the candidates in April, the court said, and the GOP waited until earlier this month to challenge their candidacies.

We explain the voting process with election-specific voter guides to help Texans learn what is on the ballot and how to vote. We interview voters, election administrators and election law experts so that we can explain the process, barriers to participation and what happens after the vote is over and the counting begins. Read more here.

Instead of letting only politicians set the agenda, we talk to voters and scrutinize polling data to understand ordinary Texans top concerns. Our readers questions and needs help inform our priorities. We want to hear from readers: What do you better want to understand about the election process in Texas? If local, state or congressional elected officials were to successfully address one issue right now, what would you want it to be? Whats at stake for you this election cycle? If were missing something, this is your chance to tell us.

We do not merely recount what politicians say, but focus on what they do (or fail to do) for the Texans they represent. We aim to provide historical, legal and other kinds of context so readers can understand and engage with an issue. Reporting on efforts that make voting and engaging in our democracy harder is a pillar of our accountability work. Read more here.

We arent able to closely cover all 150 races in the Texas House, 31 in the Texas Senate or 38 for the Texas delegation in the next U.S. House. We need to choose what races we cover closely by using our best judgment of whats most noteworthy. We take into account factors like power, equity, interest and competitiveness in order to determine what warrants more resources and attention. Read more here.

In reporting on falsehoods and exaggerations, we clearly explain why it is untrue and how it may harm Texans. Sometimes, we choose to not write about misinformation because that can help amplify it. Were more likely to debunk falsehoods when they are spread by elected officials or used as a justification for policy decisions. Read more here.

On Aug. 8, a group of Republican candidates asked the Supreme Court to remove 23 Libertarians from the ballot, saying they did not meet eligibility requirements. The Republicans included Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick and others in congressional and state legislative races.

State law requires Libertarian candidates to pay filing fees or gather petition signatures, the amount of each depending on the office sought. The Libertarian Party has been challenging that law in federal court, arguing it is unfair because the fees do not go toward their nomination process like they do for Democrats and Republicans.

Republicans also tried and failed to kick a group of Libertarian candidates off the ballot in 2020. In that case, the state Supreme Court said the GOP waited until after the deadline to challenge candidate eligibility. This time, the Republicans filed their challenge before that deadline but apparently still did not satisfy the courts preference to deal with election challenges as soon as the alleged issues arise.

In its opinion Friday, the court suggested the emergency timeframe argued by the GOP is entirely the product of avoidable delay in bringing the matter to the courts.

"The Libertarian Party of Texas is thrilled with this outcome," Whitney Bilyeu, who chairs the Texas Libertarian Party, said in a statement. "As we did last time, we resisted this haphazard attempt by Republicans to limit voter choice and obstruct free and fair elections."

Republicans have long sought to marginalize Libertarians under the thinking that they siphon votes from the GOP. Democrats, meanwhile, see the Green Party as a threat.

Among the 23 races in which the GOP challenged Libertarian candidates this time, few are expected to be close. The most clear exception, though, is the 15th Congressional District, the most competitive congressional race in the state and a top target of Republicans nationwide. Libertarian Ross Lynn Leone will remain on the ballot there against Republican Monica De La Cruz and Democrat Michelle Vallejo.

Patricks race could also be competitive. He won reelection by 5 percentage points in 2018, while the Libertarian candidate then took 2% of the vote.

The full program is now LIVE for the 2022 Texas Tribune Festival, happening Sept. 22-24 in Austin. Explore the schedule of 100+ mind-expanding conversations coming to TribFest, including the inside track on the 2022 elections and the 2023 legislative session, the state of public and higher ed at this stage in the pandemic, why Texas suburbs are booming, why broadband access matters, the legacy of slavery, what really happened in Uvalde and so much more. See the program.

Excerpt from:
Republican effort to remove Libertarians from November ballot rejected by Texas Supreme Court - The Texas Tribune

SCOOP: DEPARTURE LOUNGE Quentin Palfrey is planning to end his campaign for attorney general as soon as today, according to three people familiar with his thinking.

Chatter about Palfrey potentially exiting the Democratic primary and endorsing one of his competitors has grown in recent days as new polls showed the former assistant attorney struggling to keep pace with Andrea Campbell and Shannon Liss-Riordan, and with key endorsements breaking for his rivals. He also cut $140,000 of his $231,000 in pre-primary ad buys, according to ad tracker AdImpact. Palfrey did not respond to multiple requests for comment.

Palfrey began telegraphing his attorney general campaign over a year ago, when the 2018 Democratic lieutenant governor nominee told the Boston Globe he would run for the states top law enforcement job if Attorney General Maura Healey ran for governor.

He racked up endorsements from Democratic Party activists and progressive groups after formally launching his campaign in February and went on to secure the state partys endorsement at its June convention.

But Palfrey has struggled to grow his campaign beyond party insiders. Hes been outpaced in fundraising by Campbell and trounced by Liss-Riordan, whos now poured at least $4.8 million of her own money into her campaign. And he's trailed in polling while Liss-Riordan is closing the gap with Campbell after blanketing the airwaves since early July.

The path to victory got even narrower this past weekend, when Sen. Elizabeth Warren, Boston Mayor Michelle Wu and former Boston Acting Mayor Kim Janey endorsed Liss-Riordan. Their late-breaking support effectively recast the primary as a two-woman race between the Brookline labor attorney and Campbell, the former Boston city councilor whos backed by Healey, Rep. Ayanna Pressley, Sen. Ed Markey and other prominent politicians.

Palfrey may endorse one of his rivals to blunt the others rise. Most political watchers would assume Palfrey would endorse Liss-Riordan, who he often teamed up with earlier in the campaign to attack Campbell over super PAC spending and certain policy stances. But theres a chance Palfrey, off-put by the millions of dollars Liss-Riordan has given her campaign to fuel her more than $5 million in advertising, could set aside his differences with Campbell and back her instead.

GOOD TUESDAY MORNING, MASSACHUSETTS. Primary day is a week away! What races are you watching? What mailers are you getting? Share your thoughts: [emailprotected].

TODAY Gov. Charlie Baker and Lt. Gov. Karyn Polito attend the Greylock Glen ceremonial groundbreaking at 10 a.m. in Adams, announce Municipal Vulnerability Preparedness grant awards at noon in Williamsburg and visit Valley Venture Mentors at 2 p.m. in Springfield. The GOP governor/LG team of Geoff Diehl and Leah Cole Allen hold a media availability at 1 p.m. at UMass Lowell. LG hopeful and state Rep. Tami Gouveia casts her ballot at 6 p.m. at Acton Town Hall.

Many Dems will breeze through election amid shortage of GOP challengers, by Christian M. Wade, Eagle-Tribune: Dozens of democratic lawmakers are getting a free pass to another two-year term with the Republican Party fielding few challengers in the upcoming elections. Every seat in the 200-member state Legislature is up for grabs in the fall elections, but the majority of incumbents will cruise to another term with few contenders vying to unseat them. Among 18 House races in the North of Boston region, only two Republicans were nominated to run against incumbent Democratic lawmakers. In three wide-open races to fill House seats the newly created 4th Essex in the Merrimack Valley, and 7th and 8th Essex Districts on the North Shore Democrats dominate the field of candidates. There are no Republicans aiming for the seats.

ENDORSEMENT ALERT: State Rep. Chynah Tyler is endorsing Suffolk District Attorney Kevin Hayden at 1:30 p.m. at the Malcolm X mural in Roxbury.

It sounds like I dont want to vote for either of them: Controversy defines Suffolk DAs race, by Danny McDonald and Tiana Woodard, Boston Globe: With little more than a week to go before primary day, voters find themselves contemplating two Suffolk district attorney candidates buffeted by controversy. Thats left many local residents changing their minds about the race; still others greeted the whole firestorm with indifference. Revelations that Boston City Councilor Ricardo Arroyo, a former public defender, was twice investigated though never charged for possible sexual assault as a teenager have rocked city politics. Meanwhile, District Attorney Kevin Hayden continues to face questions and criticism after a Boston Globe investigation exposed a coverup by Transit Police officers that raised questions about how prosecutors handled the case.

Chaos on Boston City Council: Flynn moves to strip Arroyos leadership assignments; Baker and Lara file dueling records requests, by Sean Philip Cotter, Boston Herald: The Boston City Council is tearing itself apart as President Ed Flynn moves to strip embattled councilor Ricardo Arroyos committee leadership assignments a move Arroyo slams as undemocratic and city councilors pursue each other with pointed records requests: Frank Baker against the DA candidate Arroyo and Kendra Lara in turn against Baker.

FROM THE OPINION PAGES: A year after endorsing Andrea Campbell for Boston mayor, the Boston Globe editorial board has endorsed the former city councilor for state attorney general.

FIRST IN PLAYBOOK: The Boston Teachers Union, which represents about 10,000 educators, and the Greater Boston Labor Council, which represents about 100,000 workers, have endorsed state Sen. Diana DiZoglio for auditor, adding to her broad union support.

Teamsters Local 25 has endorsed Salem Mayor Kim Driscoll for lieutenant governor.

Sen. Ed Markey has endorsed Sydney Levin-Epstein for Hampden, Hampshire and Worcester state senator, saying in a statement that shell fight to make sure the region gets its fair share of resources and to create good jobs.

State Treasurer Deb Goldberg has endorsed Worcester Mayor Joe Petty for First Worcester state senator, saying in a statement that Petty is a consensus builder who will bring that same work ethic to the State House.

State Rep. Russell Holmes has been endorsed for reelection in the 6th Suffolk District by 1199 SEIU, SEIU Local 509, the Massachusetts AFL-CIO and the Massachusetts & Northern New England Laborers' District Council.

A right-wing agitator who attended Jan. 6 riot is running for the Mass. House, testing state GOPs appetite for extremism, by Emma Platoff, Boston Globe: A little-watched legislative contest on the northeast coast of Massachusetts could be a bellwether for the bitterly divided state GOP, as party leaders consider throwing their support behind Samson Racioppi, a right-wing agitator who led a 2019 Straight Pride Parade in Boston and organized buses to Washington, D.C., for the protest that became the Jan. 6 insurrection.

Massachusetts district attorney races and the progressive prosecutor, by Deborah Becker, WBUR: San Francisco residents recalled progressive District Attorney Chesa Boudin after he was blamed for a rash of brazen thefts across the city. Pennsylvania Republicans are trying to impeach the liberal DA in Philadelphia. Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis removed a progressive prosecutor in his state this month. And Suffolk DA Rachael Rollins faced a bitter confirmation fight before she became U.S. Attorney in Massachusetts early this year. Now the conflict has shifted to Massachusetts, where the battle is playing out very differently from one county to the next.

Coppinger touts reforms as he seeks another term, by Christian M. Wade, Eagle-Tribune: When former Lynn Police Chief Kevin Coppinger took over as Essex County's sheriff nearly six years ago, he never expected to play the role of a reformer. But a few years after taking over the helm, the veteran law enforcement officer found himself at the center of a national debate over whether to allow medication assisted treatment in jails and correctional facilities to help blunt the impact of a wave of opioid addiction that had claimed hundreds of thousands of lives. In the Sept. 6 primary Coppinger faces a challenge from Virginia Leigh, a Lynn social worker who argues he hasn't done enough to improve access to substance-abuse treatment and mental health services for inmates.

More: Leigh vows close 'revolving door' at Middleton jail, by Christian M. Wade, Salem News: As a clinical social worker, Virginia Leigh has spent years working with individuals struggling with mental health and substance abuse issues whose lives often become tangled up in the state's complex criminal justice system. Her work has taken her into county jails and state prisons and convinced her that the best way to reduce crime and the number of people serving time is to deal with the root causes of incarceration.

Have a mail ballot sitting at home? Do not trust it to the mail at this point, top Mass. elections official says, by Samantha J. Gross, Boston Globe: Have a mail-in ballot sitting on your kitchen table or tacked up on your refrigerator? Massachusetts Secretary of State William F. Galvin advises that you fill it out and take it to a secure drop box, early voting site, or your local city or town hall before 8 p.m. on Sept. 6 if you want it to be counted for the state primary election.

Report finds regionalization may only be partial solution to challenges posed by low enrollment, less rural school aid, by Chris Larabee, Daily Hampshire Gazette: In Franklin and Hampshire counties, regional school districts including Pioneer, Mohawk Trail and Gateway already draw from a wide pool of towns across a large geographic range. If those schools were to join up with their neighbors, school officials and state Rep. Natalie Blais, D-Sunderland, who co-chaired the Special Commission on Rural School Districts, say serious consideration needs to be taken into whether the pros of regionalization outweigh the cons.

Grid operator, utilities call for energy reserve, by Bruce Mohl, CommonWealth Magazine: The operator of the New England power grid and six of the regions major utilities are calling on state and federal policymakers to develop an energy reserve that can be tapped when energy supply chains are disrupted.

Worcester to begin construction on micro-units for chronically homeless, by Sam Turken, GBH News: Amid a rise in homelessness across Worcester, the citys housing authority will start constructing what officials called the first-in-the-state building of micro-units to house people who have been chronically homeless.

New Hampshire governor denounces tweets by state Libertarian party as horribly insulting, by Emily Sweeney, Boston Globe: The Libertarian Party of New Hampshire has drawn outrage for mocking the Holocaust and the death of Senator John McCain on social media, with New Hampshire Governor Chris Sununu calling the Twitter posts horribly insulting. In a recent interview on CNN, Sununu said that should pretty much be the end of the Libertarian Party in New Hampshire.'"

WEEKEND WEDDING Megan Corrigan, an Eric Lesser and Lydia Edwards campaign alum, and Kevin Lownds, deputy chief of the Medicaid Fraud Division at the attorney generals office, were married on Friday at the Gardens at Elm Bank in Wellesley. Garrett Casey, policy director and counsel for state Sen. Cynthia Creem, and Nelson Tamayo, a foreign service officer at the State Department, officiated. SPOTTED: Edwards, former state transportation secretary Fred Salvucci, John Sasso, Nick Mitropoulos, Dewey Square COO John Giesser, former U.S. Ambassador to Portugal Gerry McGowan; Will Poff Webster, Matt Shapanka, Elizabeth Keyes, former Rhode Island state Rep. Aaron Regunberg, Tim Flaherty and Mary-Jo Adams.

HAPPY BIRTHDAY to the Washington Posts Martine Powers, a Boston Globe/POLITICO alum, and Julia Hoffman.

Want to make an impact? POLITICO Massachusetts has a variety of solutions available for partners looking to reach and activate the most influential people in the Bay State. Have a petition you want signed? A cause youre promoting? Seeking to increase brand awareness among this key audience? Share your message with our influential readers to foster engagement and drive action. Contact Jesse Shapiro to find out how: [emailprotected].

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Palfrey eyes the exits- POLITICO - POLITICO

The Division of Elections is a busy place these days, with workers burning the midnight oil. Getting answers is not always easy. Here are some housekeeping dates to keep in mind:

On Friday the Division will be at the deadline to receive receive absentee ballots for the primary election mailed from within the U.S., U.S. territories of Puerto Rico, Guam, the Virgin Islands, American Samoa, and from overseas.

Sept. 2 is when the regular primary election results will be certified.

Sept. 5 is the deadline for candidates to withdraw from the general election ballot. Tara Sweeney has already withdrawn from the regular congressional race. Most state House and Senate races only have two or three candidates in them; few will drop.

For the special general election conducted Aug. 16 for the congressional vacancy, Aug. 31 is the final count for the first-choice votes on the ranked choice ballot.

Aug. 31 is also when the Division of Elections will run the tabulation on the second choice, meaning that the third-place finisher will be dropped and his supporters, if they made a second choice, will have their votes reassigned to that second choice.

About Chris Bye: Its a great gift for the Libertarians, who managed to get someone into the final four for the general election for Congress with candidate Chris Bye.

In the primary, Bye got 1,087 votes, or 0.61% of the vote on a crowded ballot. But then Tara Sweeney dropped out, and she did so in time for Bye to be able to move up onto the ballot.

Heres his bio from his campaign website:

Chris Bye is an Alaskan, a husband, a father of 4, a combat veteran, an Alaskan fishing guide, a youth soccer coach, former youth shooting coach and an avid outdoorsman. He is not a politician. His family is not connected to politics nor big money. He is not a DC insider. Chris is just a regular Fairbanks guy who firmly believes in Liberty and Freedom for all.

Chris dedicated half his life serving this great nation, as both an enlisted soldier in the U.S. Army and later as a commissioned officer. And retirement did not dull the desire to continue that service. He has also witnessed first-hand the devastating effects of policies made in Washington D.C., so far removed from the realities Alaskans face. It is this first-hand evidence that draws him into serving beyond the Fairbanks and Fort Wainwright community by running for Congress.

He will not pretend to have all of the answers. He will look to all Alaskans, especially those directly affected, to help solve the problems facing us. While we may not always agree, constructive dialogue including diverse perspectives is essential to creating the best Alaska, not just for certain groups but for everyone. We can do better. We owe it to our children to do better. And it starts by electing representatives who work for us, not just a party. Its time Alaska.

About Mary Peltola: She has a shot at winning the temporary congressional seat for Alaska, which we wrote about earlier. Some fun facts from Washington Post reporter Dan Zak: Her first role model in life was musher DeeDee Jonrowe, (who happens to be a Republican), who holds the fastest Iditarod time for a woman and is a three-time runner-up in the race. Peltola grew up dog-mushing.

Peltolas first piece of legislation as an Alaska legislator was a gun ban, which was reaction to a school shooting in Bethel pre-Columbine, in 1997. Peltola doesnt believe citizens need what she calls weapons of war.

Peltola won 45 percent of the latest batch of ballots counted, about 21,000 ballot, which boosted her total vote to 39%. If the rest of the ballots break the same way, shell be close to 40% and may become the overall winner of the special election with the secondary votes of Palin and Begich. Remember, Peltola started with just 7% of the vote in the primary.

Ranked choice polling:

As of July 7, 2022, the major polling and analysts ranked this seat either solid or likely Republican:

Things to do Thursday:

Endorsements: Congressional candidate Nick Begich received the endorsement this week of the Ketchikan District 1 Republicans.

District 34 Republicans (Fairbanks) endorsed Frank Tomaszewski running for State House, Sen. Robb Meyers for re-election to Senate seat Q, and Kelly Tshibaka running for U.S. Senator. They voted in favor of censuring Sen. Click Bishop, a Republican who is running for reelection.

District 9 Republicans (Anchorage Hillside) endorsed Roger Holland for Senate Seat E (new).

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Original post:
Notes from the trail: 75 days until Nov. 8 election, and who is Chris Bye, Libertarian for Congress? - Must Read Alaska

Just a couple of days after another federal probe made another dent in the record of former U.S. Navy Seal Ryan Zinke, the national prognosticators still had him pegged as the easy victor in Montanas U.S. House of Representatives race.

Political analysts say scandals, which have clouded Zinkes public persona even before Outside Magazine published a photo that showed he rigged a fly rod backwards, might not stick in this day and age.

So one more report concluding Zinke lied might not register with voters.

The GOPs man has won before, of course.

Zinke trounced a Democrat in 2014 with 55.4 percent of the vote, and then again in 2016, with a push on the ballot from then-presidential candidate Donald Trump and an even greater win, 56.2 percent.

This week, federal investigators said he knowingly misled them as former Secretary of the Interior about his interactions with corporate casino lobbyists pushing him to disapprove a rival project.

His opponent in this years election, Monica Tranel, is the natural underdog. The Missoula lawyer has never held national office, shes campaigning as a Democrat in a state that runs red, and shes got an uphill slog.

Friday, the forecast from Sabatos Crystal Ball said GOP victory is likely in Montanas western district. FiveThirtyEight marks Zinke the winner 98 times out of 100.

Asked about the prediction at a recent campaign event, Tranel said the analysts need to take a closer look at the district. She also points to the other side of the coin projecting shell likely lose.

We win two times out of 100, Tranel said.

Twice as many times as she needs.

***

This year, new and different currents are pushing at the race, and political analysts say a hint of unpredictability is tracing through the waters.

The national landscape is politically shifty, with inflation in a peppy climb. Fallout is still unfolding from the Jan. 6 hearings and Roe v. Wade reversal. And in Montana, the western district itself is new.

So the bright red predictions arent necessarily well grounded, said Jeremy Johnson, political scientist with Carroll College in Helena.

Theres just very little polling in the western district where hes running so far, Johnson said. So theres very little for them (national forecasters) to go on right now.

To push out the presumed favorite, Johnson said Democrats will have to fight against national headwinds and break through tribalization and political polarization, an arduous but not impossible task.

I think theres at least potential vulnerabilities, Johnson said. Whether they actually manifest themselves in the election? Obviously, the national prognosticators dont think its that likely.

Inside Elections also counts the new district as likely Republican.

If the Democrats are to win, theyll need to make sure the electorate is aware of the questionable conduct associated with Zinke and make the case that its discrediting, Johnson said.

The recent report is the second this year from the Inspector Generals Office of the Department of the Interior that said the former Secretary knowingly provided investigators inaccurate and incomplete information. A February report found Zinke wasnt truthful about his involvement in a Whitefish development.

Zinkes campaign has called the findings politically motivated, a smear.

These days, though, voters have shorter attention spans, and impropriety that might have sunk a political candidate just a couple of years ago might flutter off the radar.

For Dems to flip the script?

Can you focus on voters who are willing to be persuaded? Johnson said.

***

Montanans sometimes pride themselves on not voting straight tickets.

Kyle Kondik, managing editor of Sabatos Crystal Ball, noted just six U.S. Senators out of 100 represent states that their party did not support for president.

U.S. Sen. Jon Tester of Montana, a Democrat, is one.

So Montana actually does have a little bit of that tradition of crossing over a bit, Kondik said. But its an exception at this point.

Tester has won in nail biters.

However, in 2018 in counties that now make up the western district, he did so by 10 points against Republican Matt Rosendale. In those counties, Tester earned 53.8 percent of the vote to Rosendales 43.6 percent. A Libertarian took 2.6 percent.

In the 2020 race for the U.S. Senate, Democrat Steve Bullock lost to incumbent Sen. Steve Daines, a Republican, by a margin of 10 points in Montana.

In the western district, that margin shrunk to 1.44 points without a third-party candidate on the ballot.

In other words, had a Libertarian earned just 1.5 percent of the vote going to Daines one point less than the 2.6 percent the third-party candidate took in 2016 Bullock would have won that district.

At a recent campaign event, Tranel pointed out that Zinke came out of the primary with nearly 60 percent of Republican voters selecting another candidate, and she came out of it with 65 percent of the vote from her party and more total votes than any other candidate.

Kondik agreed Zinke had problems in the primary: Hes certainly the bigger named candidate, but he only barely won.

On the other hand, hes a Republican. That counts in Montana, it counts in an increasingly nationalized political scene, and it counts against the Democrat.

Youre working against that polarization, and people with strongly partisan identities who often dont want to hear negative things about their own candidate and who will often dismiss their relevance, Johnson said.

***

In the Zinke campaigns response this week to the report from the Inspector Generals Office, white collar criminal defense lawyer Danny Onorato touted his clients integrity and record of service.

Zinke has described previous investigations into ethical misconduct as harassment. His lawyer also points to his resume.

Zinke counts 23 years of military service. He served as a state senator for two terms, as a congressman elected in 2014 and 2016, and as U.S. Secretary of the Interior from March 2017 to January 2019.

Christina Barsky, political analyst with the University of Montana, said the military service on Zinkes resume resonates with Montanans because they are civically engaged and count a higher rate of public service compared to people in many other states.

Also a factor, and in any race, is the short attention span of the American public. Its an age where everyone is watching at all times, and Barsky said anyone in the public eye is vulnerable, although not always for long.

Its impossible in this day and age, ultimately, for politicians to come out unscathed, even the people that are acting in good faith and are fulfilling their ethical obligations, said Barsky, faculty with the Department of Public Administration and Policy at UM.

On the other hand, Montanans dont like to be embarrassed.

And Zinkes actions have raised questions about his Montana identity, Barsky said. She pointed to the times he wore a cowboy hat the wrong way and rigged a fly rod backwards, or the persistent question of his residency.

Zinkes wife lists a property in California as her primary residence, according to Politico, and Zinke, who claims Whitefish as home, has listed the Santa Barbara address in a consultant agreement filed with the SEC.

***

Barsky too points to Tester as an example of politics in the Treasure State.

For a long time, she said Montana has seen itself as a state where a person who was a high school band teacher can go to Congress, and in 2006, Tester, a farmer and music teacher, won his first U.S. Senate race against incumbent and Republican Sen. Conrad Burns.

A third-party candidate was on the ballot, but Tester didnt even get 50 percent of the vote.

Now, Barsky said money in politics is creating another level of elites, and the story Montanans have been telling themselves might be skirting closer to mythology.

It seems like were moving more into the nationalized politics that were seeing in other states, Barsky said. Montana had been a long-time holdout, and Im not sure its true anymore.

Word of the new report that said Zinke wasnt truthful might get swept aside with other national news about student loan forgiveness and, more locally, fires, Barsky said. And the election isnt until November.

Political analyst Lee Banville, also a UM faculty member, said the IGs report wont change the way most people vote, but he said it may affect one important element in a campaign enthusiasm for the candidate.

They may be inclined to vote his way, but are they fired up enough to go out and cast a ballot? Banville said.

He doesnt see signs of a lot of motivation: If theres one weak spot to Ryan Zinke, there seems to be some enthusiasm problems.

He said the close primary doesnt indicate Zinke is in danger of losing, but it is evidence that Republicans arent excited to rally around him as a candidate.

The race is tilted toward him pretty strongly, but there are weaknesses that are kind of persistent, Banville said. Hes kind of coasting right now, and that could be dangerous.

***

The Tranel campaign hasnt earned high marks from the organizations crunching numbers at the national level, and Republicans have celebrated the predictions Zinke eats his opponents lunch.

Monica Tranel has even fewer original ideas than chances of winning in November, posted the Montana Republican Party on Facebook earlier this summer in reaction to FiveThirtyEight. Montanans are fired up to elect Ryan Zinke!

Zinke has raised more money, nearly $3.8 million, according to the most recent information filed with the Federal Election Commission. Tranel has raised $1.3 million, but this month, she was on the third set of tires on her minivan in a state where facetime matters.

This month, Silas Teasdale started his first day of work as a field organizer in Missoula for the Tranel campaign. It was First Friday, when downtown art galleries stay open a little later and crowds are out and about, and after his shift, Teasdale went to a taco truck.

He struck up a conversation with three other diners at the next table, he said, three men who were clearly friends despite differing political views.

One of them told Teasdale he had voted for Trump, but he wasnt sure he liked Zinke, and he wanted to hear about Tranel.

Certainly, a voter who crosses party lines on a ballot isnt a surprise in the Treasure State. Nonetheless, with the campaign in full swing and a Trump voter curious about his underdog candidate, Teasdale took note.

Thats a positive shot to the system, Teasdale said.

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Zinke still pegged as winner, but analysts see 'vulnerabilities' Daily Montanan - Daily Montanan