Mediaboss Marketing

A decade after the overthrow of longtime dictator Moammar Gadhafi, Libya is set to hold elections this December to produce a unified government. As the date approaches, the countrys Maghreb neighbors Tunisia, Algeria, and Morocco are showing intensified interest in its ongoing peace process.

Algerian decisionmakers resumed Libya flights, opened a sea line between Algiers and Tripoli, and recently appointed Ramtane Lamamra who has been highly engaged in the Libya dossier as foreign minister. Tunisia remains most interested in controlling security risks and reestablishing economic ties and has signed agreements with Libya over the summer to promote mutual trade, investment, and movement of travelers. Morocco, the birthplace of the 2015 Skhirat agreement (which recognized the Government of National Unity as Libyas sole legitimate authority), is organizing meetings between rival Libyan actors and bilateral talks with officials on potential cooperation in the fields of enhanced security, trade, and renewable energy.

Despite a problematic lack of coordination on the Libya dossier between these states, all putatively agree that elections are the best way forward for the conflict-stricken country. Furthermore, they have all consistently supported inter-Libyan dialogue that promotes Libya voices. Yet their heightened interest over recent months raises questions. Why have they become increasingly invested in Libya, and what do they stand to gain from its stability?

TheprimaryreasonbehindMaghreb interest in Libyas stability is the security threatwhichcontinued chaos represents.As political instability piqued in Libya following 2011, itled to increased terrorism, organized crime, weapons proliferation, and drug trafficking.This is especially problematic forAlgeria and Tunisia,whichshare porous land borderswith Libya.The Tunisian government hassignificantly increasedsecurityspendingsince the collapse of the Libyan security sector, while the Algerian regime increased the number of troops along its shared border.Even Morocco, which is not a direct neighbor, has been impacted by instability in Libya, particularly in terms of the threat of terrorism. As Moroccan fighters joined theIslamic Stategroupsbranch in Libya from where the terrorist organization planned to launch attacks on Europe their imminent return created risks for the kingdoms security.

Furthermore, because of the power vacuum in Tripoli, the possibility of terrorist organizations and rebel groups launching their offensives from Libya was a real threat for the entire North Africa region, asevidencedwhen aChadian military-political rebel grouplaunched a battle that killed President IdrisDbyItno. The collapse of Libyas security sector has also made it possible forweapons smuggling, drug trafficking, and other criminal activity to take place at an intensified level. While prior to 2011 Libya saw little trafficking in drugs other than cannabis, it is now awell-established routeforcocaine, heroin, and amphetamines.

This could explain why certain Maghreb states have signaled the possibility of military partnership with Libyas Government of National Unity.The president ofAlgeria, ahistorically isolationistcountry,claimedthat he was ready to enforce red lines against Field Marshal KhalifaHifter. Furthermore, a2020reform of the countrys constitution made it possible for the Algerian army to deploy overseas, a change from a decades-old non-interventionist military policy. Morocco and Libya meanwhile are in advanced talks on enhanced cooperation on terrorism and migration and aim to enter into a military partnership.It is true that the aforementioned Algerian constitutional reform is likely also due to the rising instability in theSahel region and that the Morocco talks are possibly another way for the kingdom to maintain its involvement in the Libya dossier and promote its interests. However, these developments suggest that the two countries are taking steps to ensure they would be able to protect themselves from a security threat emanating from Libya or to intervene to deescalate such a situation.

Tunisia is perhaps the Maghreb state that stands to gain the most from reinstating strong economic ties with Libya.Since2011, its economy has been impacted byemigration of Libyans to Tunisiaas well asthe return of Tunisian workers fromthe country. The security threat also contributed to reduced tourism and investment as well as increased security spending.The World Bankestimated that, between 2011 and 2015, the Libyan crisis reduced Tunisias growth by 24%.

Stability in Libya would gradually reverse these effects and would open the door for bilateral economic cooperation.Increasedtourism and tradewould boost Tunisias fragile andCOVID-19-hit economy. The recently opened borders have already allowed Tunisianmerchantsin impoverished areas to travel to Libya and sell their merchandise.Both sides aim to boost cooperation in trade, investment, and tourism down the line as was seen during a Libyan-Tunisian economicforumheld in Libya last May.

Morocco, which did not enjoy strong economic ties with Libya under the Gadhafi regime, could also benefit from new trade and energy deals. Moroccan decisionmakers are working towards this. The kingdoms foreign minister announcedin Junethe organization of a secondbilateral economic forum. That same month, Libyasminister ofoilandgasdiscussed ongoing talks about renewable energy cooperation with Morocco.

To a lesser extent,Algerian officials have also recently shown that they are open to improving trade with Libya and reopening the shard land border which could turn into a major economic zone. Like Tunisia and Morocco, Algeria also organized an economic forumwith Libya and signed anagreementon trade exchange and industrial forums.Algiers has also providedeconomic assistance to communities in southwest Libya, including food aid in 2014 during the tribal conflict between the Tebu and Tuareg tribes.

A potential benefit from peace in Libya on the regional level could be bolsteredintra-regional economic integration in the Maghreb. Trade between Maghreb states stood at 2.8% in 2019, compared to 10.7% between the members of the Gulf Cooperation Council. Reasons include the crisis in Libya as well as logistical constraints and tensions between Algeria and Morocco. Peace in Libya could present a small possibility for improvement and could make it possible for these states to consolidate economic integration and start initiatives for cross-border security cooperation.

Beyond their domestic interests, some Maghreb states are invested in the Libyan peace process in and of itself to bolster their position on the regional and international stages. Since hosting the meetings which resulted in the signing of the Skhirat agreement, Morocco has organized multiple talks on the issue of key institutional positions, as recently as this summer. Moroccan decisionmakers attach great importance to the kingdoms role in the Libyan peace process, which Rabat views as a way to bolster its international reputation as a credible mediator. This could explain why Moroccan officials were slighted by their exclusionfrom the 2018 Berlin Conference (to which Algeria and Tunisia were eventually invited) and why the kingdom was subsequently relatively absent on theLibyadossier between 2018 and 2020.

By intensifying its involvement in Libya, Morocco also seeks tocheck rival Algerias influence in the region. As Algeria recentlycame to agreements with Tunisia, Egypt,and Turkey on the crisisin Tripoli suggesting intensified interest in Algiers on the dossierMorocco may come to fear that its influenceon Libyaand the region may diminish. This would in turn exacerbate its tensions with Algeria and push it to become even more involved in Libya.

Libyas peace process will remain a complicated one. Evenifelections take place this December,the vote goes smoothly, and it results in a unified government whichHifterdoes not contest, the road ahead will still be long. It may take years for Libyas neighbors to reap economic and security benefits.

Yet, in this scenario, the regional security threat would diminish in the near future which would ease pressure across the board. The Tunisian government could reduce security spending, while Algeria and Morocco could refocus their security efforts on the Sahel region. Foreign investment in the Maghreb would also eventually pick up in the medium to long term, as could tourism (depending on the epidemiological situation).

In the meantime, Maghreb countries will continue to pursue their individual interests through their ties with Libya. The government in Tunisia will likely seek to sign further agreements relating to commerce and tourism while keeping its eye on potential energy deals down the line. Algeria will remain most concerned with the potential security threat that could come out of Libya should the peace process fail, though it is unlikely to intervene militarily beyond securing their shared border. Morocco will aim to assert its role as mediator while preserving the Skhirat institutions. To this end, it will most likely hold moreBouznika-style meetings between rival actors. However, a unified Maghreb response to the Libyan crisis is highly unlikelyaslong astensions and ideological differences persist.

Link:
Libyas peace process: Whats at stake for the Maghreb, 10 years after Gadhafis overthrow - Brookings Institution

MOSCOW (AP) Russias top diplomat assured his Libyan counterpart Thursday that Moscow supports the withdrawal of all foreign fighters from the North African country and is prepared to help work out the details with other countries.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said after the talks in Moscow with Najla Mangoush that the Libyan leadership is forming a consultative mechanism ... to formulate the concrete parameters under which the foreign forces will leave.

Russia was among the foreign powers backing the warring sides in Libyas conflict, with some officials and media reports alleging that Russian private military contractors took part in the fighting.

We will be prepared to constructively take part in this work alongside other countries, Lavrov told a press conference.

The Libyan foreign minister said her government considers the issue of withdrawing foreign fighters important and a priority, but stressed that it should be done gradually and in a synchronized manner.

Thats why working out implementation mechanisms is necessary, Mangoush said. Such decisions are aimed to avoid repeating (the) negative lessons of some of our neighbors, to avoid an ill-considered withdrawal of troops and to avoid sliding into chaos, so that the national security of Libya doesnt suffer in the end.

Libya has been wracked by chaos since a NATO-backed uprising toppled longtime dictator Moammar Gadhafi in 2011, and split the country between a U.N.-supported government in the capital, Tripoli, and rival authorities loyal to commander Khalifa Hifter in the east. Each were backed by different armed groups and foreign governments.

In April 2019, Hifter launched a military offensive to capture the capital. His campaign was backed by Egypt, the UAE, Russia and France, while his rivals had the support of Turkey, Qatar and Italy.

Hifters march on Tripoli ultimately failed in June 2020. Subsequent U.N.-sponsored peace talks brought about a cease-fire and installed an interim government thats expected to lead the country into general elections in December.

The U.N. estimated in December that there were at least 20,000 foreign fighters and mercenaries in Libya, including Syrians, Russians, Sudanese and Chadians.

Last month, U.N. Special Envoy to Libya Jan Kubis said that factions starting the withdrawal of all foreign fighters from the country would be a major step for Libya.

Read the rest here:
AP - Russia supports withdrawal of foreign fighters from Libya - Associated Press

Bullet holes scar the minaret of the Sufi mosque in Libya's Zliten, but followers of the Muslim mystical tradition are working to renovate and preserve their heritage.

A handful of students sit cross-legged on the floor of the mosque in the Asmariya zawiya, transcribing on wooden tablets as their teacher chants Koranic verses.

Elsewhere in the complex, named for its 16th-century founder Abdessalam al-Asmar, scholars pore over old manuscripts on theology and Islamic law.

The zawiya -- an Arabic term for a Sufi institute offering a space for religious gatherings, Koranic education and free accommodation to travelers -- also includes a boarding school and a university.

Historian Fathi al-Zirkhani says the site is the Libyan equivalent of Cairo's prestigious Al-Azhar University, a global authority in Sunni Islam.

But despite Sufism's long history across North Africa, Libya's plunge into chaos after dictator Moamer Kadhafi was ousted in a 2011 revolt gave a free hand to militias.

They included hardline Islamists, who are deeply hostile to Sufi "heretics" and their mystical nighttime ceremonies aimed at coming closer to the divine.

"(Previously) dormant ideological currents, with backing from abroad, took advantage of the security vacuum to attack the zawiyas," Zirkhani said.

In August 2012, dozens of Islamist militants raided the site, blowing up part of the sanctuary, stealing or burning books and damaging Asmar's tomb.

But today, craftsmen are busily restoring terracotta tiles and repairing damage caused by the extremists.

The tomb is surrounded by scaffolding but still bears its green silk cover, delicately embroidered with gold.

The zawiya hosts several hundred students including many from overseas, who enjoy free food and lodging.

"I came to Libya to learn Koran here," said Thai student, Abderrahim bin Ismail, in faltering Arabic.

Houssein Abdellah Aoch, a 17-year-old from Chad wearing a long blue tunic, said he was working hard to commit verses to memory.

"I'm hoping to memorize the entire Koran then go home and become a religious teacher," he said.

When the call to prayer rings out, all rise and head through an arcaded courtyard to the mosque for noon prayers.

It is a scene repeated daily for hundreds of years, but the zawiya has had a turbulent few decades.

Kadhafi, who ruled Libya with an iron fist for four decades after seizing power in a 1969 coup, had been suspicious of the Sufis.

"He infiltrated the zawiya with his secret services, creating a climate of fear and mistrust," said an employee, who asked to remain anonymous.

"Kadhafi chose to divide the Sufis to control them better."

But Kadhafi's authorities "loosened the stranglehold in the mid-1990s, which allowed the zawiyas to regain their autonomy," he added.

After his overthrow in 2011, another danger emerged. The attack in Zliten, on the Mediterranean coast east of Tripoli, was echoed across the country.

Islamist militants used diggers and pneumatic drills to destroy numerous Sufi sites across Libya -- attacks echoed in Iraq, Pakistan and elsewhere.

Zirkhani says the people who attacked the complex in Zliten were "extremists known to the state".

But in the chaos of post-revolt Libya, they have never been held to account.

The zawiya has also suffered from a lack of funds as it seeks to rebuild and restore its treasures.

Zirkhani showed AFP dusty old manuscripts he wants to preserve for posterity.

"We have neither the means nor the know-how to restore them," Zirkhani said. "We need help from (UN cultural agency) UNESCO and European institutions."

But there are some signs of hope for Sufis in Libya.

The zawiya was closed for six years following the 2012 attack. But in 2018 it discreetly reopened, and Sufis have been able to exercise their customs more publicly.

Last October in Tripoli, they took to the streets of the old city to celebrate the birthday of the Prophet Mohammed -- a festival frowned upon by more austere currents of Islam.

Follow this link:
Sufis strive to protect their heritage in wartorn Libya - Africanews English

The Taliban takeover of Afghanistan has sent countries around the world scrambling to mount a swift evacuation plan to extricate their respective nationals from the strife-torn country.

But executing an evacuation plan is not an easy job. Its a Herculean task, a disastrous nightmare that a country has to see through to safely rescue its people. The fluidity of the situation makes it incredibly difficult for the authorities to draw up a blueprint of the evacuation amidst perpetual volatility.

Not only do the government has to come up with a practical solution to rescue its marooned citizens in a foreign country but they also have to manage the political crisis developing back home with the opposition parties and the kin of people stuck abroad putting pressure on the government to get their relatives to safety.

The complexity of the task at hand adds to the pressure on the government and the officials involved in the evacuation. The country is also severely constrained in case it does not share a contiguous border with the nation from where it plans to pull out its people.

But arguably, the most difficult part is to have a handle on the situation that the country and its diplomats and foreign ministry officials buckle down to tackle. To come up with a reasonably good plan to evacuate its people to safety, the officials involved in the evacuation process need to have an acute understanding of the unfolding crisis. The diplomats should anticipate much in advance about a possible humanitarian catastrophe and work towards hatching up a plan should the push comes to shove.

In case there is a hostile takeover of the country as is the case in Afghanistan or a war situation as was the case in Libya, Yemen and Iraq, the diplomats need to know who the current stakeholders are and explore opportunities to get into negotiations with them. After getting them on board, the final modalities of the evacuation can be smoothed over and the implementation of the rescue plan could be set in motion.

India, over the years, has been one of those countries that have been remarkably successful in executing its evacuation plans and bringing its stranded citizens back home. Its foreign policies had been disastrous for a couple of decades after the independence when it committed one after another Nehruvian blunders. For instance, not obliterating Pakistan for its audacity of attacking and capturing Jammu and Kashmir in 1948 or serving the UNSC seat to China on a platter and later on misreading Chinas intentions on Aksai Chin and Arunachal Pradesh that inevitably led to the catastrophic 1962 war.

But, in the last few years, after PM Modi came to power, there has been a radical shift in Indias foreign policy. It carried out Surgical Strikes across the border, both in the east and west, to demonstrate its willingness to go beyond the conventional methods to deal with the scourge of terrorism. With Balakot Airstrikes, it has shown the world that it is no longer the yesteryears India that will not sit back and lick its wound, but it will mount a swift offensive and exact revenge from its adversaries.

Additionally, under PM Modi, India has also aced in tackling hostage and humanitarian crises unfolding in foreign countries. Be it the Tikrit hostage situation in 2014 or the Yemen-Saudi war in 2016, or the Kabul evacuation much recently, India has demonstrated that it prizes the life of its nationals residing in other countries and would not abandon them to their fate.

Here are some of the successful evacuation operations carried out by India under the Modi government:-

In June 2014, depressing news trickled in from strife-torn Iraq, where the Islamic State was making rapid territorial gains. The ISIS terrorists had managed to intrude into Tikrit as the Civil War between them and the Iraqi Army escalated. A contingent of Indian nurses was deployed in a hospital in Tikrit to look after the injured and sick. It was just weeks after Narendra Modi had sworn in as the Prime Minister with a very new cabinet.

At midnight of 12 June 2014, all the nurses, both Indian and Iraqis, heard a crackle of bullets on a road nearby the hospital. For the Indian nurses, this was their first brush with Iraqs changing reality as they heard a volley of bullets being fired, along with a loud thud of noise coming from grenade explosions. Soon, the Iraqi nurses whispered among themselves to flee the town. The Indians, on the other hand, knew they had nowhere to go. 46 Indian nurses werestrandedin the hospital. All except one of the 46 nurses were from Kerala.

The next day, ISIS terrorists had occupied the ground floor of the hospital. The Indian nurses lived on the second floor of the hospital in the makeshift dormitories. All the hospital staff, including the patients, were hoarded up on the second floor as the incessant firing continued on the ground floor.

For days on end, the nurses lived in perpetual fear of being assaulted and executed at the hands of their ISIS captors, who were also known for committing unspeakable atrocities against women and holding them as sex slaves. They spent their time in captivity watching TV bulletins and surfing the news on their phones until the television stopped working and the internet was no longer available on the phones.

Throughout their ordeal, the Indian Embassy in Baghdad steadfastly kept in touch with them on phone and at times recharging their prepaid cell phones. On June 30, the nurses were ferried to the border by the ISIS terrorists. From their office at the border, another bus was arranged to transport the nurses to the Indian rescue team. They were then taken to the military office, and then Erbil airport after their documents were verified. The Indian Government had arranged a special flight from Delhi to Erbil to fly the nurses back. After 23 days of traumatic experience, the nurses, unscathed and unharmed, finally boarded the flight on July 5 and returned home.

The escape, which was dramatic and unprecedented, given that ISIS had become notorious for meting out brutalities on their hostages, is partly credited to the then External Affairs Minister Sushma Swaraj, who was continuously in touch with all the major countries, including Saudi Arabia and Iraq. It is believed that New Delhi activated informal channels and established peripheral contacts with ISIS, and other splinter groups in Iraq to precipitate the rescue. The foreign ministry later refused to identify interlocutors who had negotiated the release of the nurses.

In 2015, as fighting raged between the Houthi rebels and the Yemeni government supported by aerial bombardment from the Saudi-led coalition, the Indian government once again found itself in a tight spot. Thousands of Indians were stranded in Yemen as theRoyal Saudi Air Forceled acoalition of Arab statesin suppressing theShiiteHouthirebels.

The Indian government launched Operation Rahat to evacuateIndiancitizens and foreign nationals fromYemen.Since Yemen was not accessible by air due to a no-fly zone announced by Saudi Arabia, India chose Djibouti initially as a centre to carry out initial evacuation by sea. The Indian government also sent the then Minister of State for Overseas Indian Affairs General (Retd) V.K. Singh to oversee operations from the nearest port of Djibouti city.

Indians stuck in Yemen were asked to reach SanaaandAden, from where they would be ferried back to India. The Indian Navy redeployed thepatrol vesselINSSumitra(P59)from anti-piracy operations off the coast ofLakshadweepto the Yemeni port of Aden.

Besides, INS Mumbai and frigate INS Tarkash were also sent from Mumbai to provide protection and support to Indian ships and aircraft in the conflict zone. The Indian government also commissioned the Indian Air Force to help the Navy with the evacuation effort. Two C-17 Globemastercargo aircraft with a capacity of 600 passengers were sent to Djibouti.

In addition to this, two ferries belonging to the Lakshadweep administration, MVKavarattiandMVCorals, with a capacity of 1,500 passengers were sent to Aden, while two Air India Airbus A320 aircraft were dispatched to Muscat in neighbouring Oman. Then on April 1, 2015, INS Sumitra reached Aden to evacuate 349 Indians.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi personally spoke to the King Salman of Saudi Arabia to seek a safe passage for Indian nationals and evacuation effort. The Prime Ministers Office was personally monitoring operations and looking over seamless cooperation between various arms of the state including ministries of external affairs, defence, shipping, railways, navy, IAF, Air India and various state governments to provide relief to those in distress.

After India was permitted to fly to Yemen on April 3, 2015, it began evacuating people from Sanaa to Djibouti and from there to Mumbai or Kochi. The two C-17 Globemasters flew nine sorties to Mumbai and two to Kochi to transport the expatriates back to India.

Over the next few days, India rescued about 4,640 Indians stranded in Yemen, along with 960 foreign nationals from more than 41 countries.Some of the countries did not have the operational capability to carry out a complex evacuation process so they sought Indias help. India happily obliged and rescued the beleaguered foreign nationals.

With the security situation on the ground rapidly deteriorating in Libya, the then External Affairs Minister Sushma Swaraj in April 2019 announced that an entire contingent of CRPF troops was removed from the conflict zone.

The root of the crisis that continues to plague Libya to this day is the unrest that sparked the Arab Spring in 2011. The uprising had then overthrown and killed long-ruling dictator Moammar Gadhafi and since his death, various rival factions within the country had been jousting for power.

An UN-backed internationally recognised government headed by Fayez al-Sarraj was installed but the rebels continued to fight with each other, in their bid to undermine the government and stake their claim to power.

The infighting escalated in 2019 with the launch of a military campaign known as theWestern Libya campaign, initiated on 4 April 2019 by theOperation Flood of Dignityof theLibyan National Army, which represents the LibyanHouse of Representatives, to capture the western region ofLibyaand eventually the capitalTripoliheld by theUnited Nations Security Council-recognisedGovernment of National Accord.

The Indian government initiated a massive evacuation plan to rescue the marooned people from the country. Later, the then External Affairs Minister Sushma Swaraj tweeted that the evacuation of an entire contingent of CRPF forces was carried out as the situation in Tripoli had worsened.

Indian Embassy in Tunisia has evacuated the entire contingent of 15 CRPF personnel yesterday itself. I appreciate the excellent work by the Indian Embassy in Tunisia. #Libya, she had tweeted.

With the situation exacerbating, the Indian government foresaw the possibility of the crisis devolving into a long-drawn-out conflict. During this time, some Indians residing in Tripoli were still hesitant to leave everything behind and get rescued from the war-torn country. With more than 500 Indians still in Tripoli, the then EAM Sushma Swaraj requested families and friends of people in Libyas capital city Tripoli to persuade them to leave immediately amid an emergency.

With the peace talks in Doha going sideways and the Taliban not holding up to its end of the bargain, the Indian authorities anticipated that there would come a time when New Delhi will have to decide whether to stay put or extricate itself from Afghanistan.

Then, on August 15, 2021, the Taliban terrorists walked into Kabul, facing no resistance from the Afghan armed forces and declaring themselves as Afghanistans rulers. Panic and fear had swept across the country after the fall of Kabul, following which a multitude of city residents flocked to the airport, in a desperate attempt to fly out of the country.

With India anticipating a humanitarian crisis emerging in Afghanistan, it had already laid the groundwork for initiating a swift evacuation campaign. Indians were dogged by primarily two concerns. Firstly, it didnt share a contiguous border with Afghanistan, which meant that the evacuation had to be carried out at a broader level with an all-embracing approach. Secondly, India had no security footprint in Afghanistan.

Our overriding concern was the security of our officials on the ground. So we prioritised it in our plan to exfiltrate them from Afghanistan should the Taliban gets hold of the country, TOI quoted a senior official as saying, who wished to remain anonymous because of being unauthorised to speak on the issue.

As of August 22, India brought back 392 people, including two Afghan lawmakers, in three different flights as a part of the mission to evacuate its nationals and Afghan partners from Kabul.

A total of 168 people, including 107 Indians and 23 Afghan Sikhs and Hindus, were flown from Kabul to Hindon airbase near Delhi in a C-17 heavy-lift military transport aircraft of the Indian Air Force (IAF). The evacuation plan is still underway as India undertakes repatriation of remaining Indians stranded in Afghanistan while helping other countries evacuate their marooned nationals.

The Indian government is still making all efforts to bring back Indian citizens as well as Hindus and Sikh Afghan nationals as well as other Afghans to India.

View post:
From Iraq to Yemen to Libya to Kabul: Some of the toughest evacuations executed by the Modi government - OpIndia

What, I wonder, is Field Marshal Khalifa Haftar up to in Libya? The simple answer to that complex question is that he still wants to rule the country. The next question is: how he is going to do it?

Over the past seven years Haftar has tried the armed route to conquer the country and get rid of his adversaries, both military and political. At one point in his military adventure he enjoyed the support of three-quarters of the permanent members of the UN Security Council. That was when he launched his campaign, on 4 April 2019, to conquer the Libyan capital Tripoli, disrupting UN mediation efforts aimed at settling the conflict.

Thirteen months later, in June last year, Haftar's military campaign collapsed in defeat. Reflecting on that situation, former UN Acting Envoy to Libya Stephanie Williams told MEMO in May that on 24 April 2019 Haftar received a phone call from US President Donald Trump, which the self-styled field marshal interpreted as a "green light" to take the capital. France and Russia, both permanent members of the Security Council like the US, supported Haftar's efforts. Nevertheless, he failed, thanks to Turkey's military intervention on the side of the UN-recognised Tripoli government.

Haftar is still around. He has never visited the front line in western Libya, but he still harbours his old dream of ruling the country.

His tactics are apparently flexible as the political situation in the North African country evolves. When in March the Government of National Unity (GNU) was sworn in he appeared to be welcoming and reconciliatory. Haftar didn't actually commit to anything specific, though, such as accepting that he was under a new government and would obey its orders. At the time, the GNU considered this to be a step in the right direction that would ultimately lead to unification of the armed forces under its command. However, little has been achieved towards this objective, one of the main priorities for the interim government whose mandate will expire on 24 December when presidential and legislative elections are due to be held.

READ: Gaddafi's finances may save Libya's new budget

Despite still holding to his old dream of controlling Libya, Haftar is yet to take any practical steps towards, for example, putting himself forward as a candidate in the presidential election. He has never said whether he will stand, although he voiced support for the elections to take place.

The deliberations of the Libyan Political Dialogue Forum, which is charged with coming up with a constitutional base or framework for elections, has stalled. One of the stumbling blocks has been whether serving military officers, like Haftar, should be allowed to stand as candidates or if they should resign first. Those who are against them standing while in the armed forces argue that an officer appearing in uniform while he is a candidate for president, for example, jeopardises free and fair elections. Would such an officer who loses then obey orders from the winning candidate who, as president, will be Commander in Chief of the armed forces? In the politically polarised situation in Libya this is very serious issue, and banning serving officers from running in the elections makes a lot of sense.

Moreover, ever since the GNU took office, Haftar has contradicted his earlier reconciliatory tone. For instance, he denied having any links with the government just weeks after welcoming its formation. On 11 August, the forces under his command announced the capture of a Daesh member described as "dangerous" without any further details. This happened despite the fact that the Presidency Council did not authorise such operations. And in April, the council banned military officers from making any public statements without its authorisation, and yet Haftar hasn't stopped making all sorts of announcements. In a televised speech last week, for example, he said that his forces will only "obey orders" from an elected president. A week earlier he announced promotions for dozens of officers among his troops, despite the fact that the Presidency Council has banned such personal advancement.

Politically, Haftar has lost a lot of popularity, further decreasing his chances of winning any election should he decide to run. After his rise to power in mid 2014, his popularity skyrocketed, particularly in eastern Libya where he is credited with bringing a certain degree of peace, security and stability in restive Benghazi up to the Egyptian border. He got rid of all extremist groups, including Daesh, and his forces played a significant role in curbing lawlessness in the southern region, albeit less successfully.

READ: What is next for Libya after the failure of the Geneva dialogue?

Furthermore, his attack on Tripoli was a serious political and military miscalculation. Speaking on condition of anonymity, one security expert described it as "his biggest blunder so far that cost him dearly." His opponents accuse him of facilitating the Turkish military intervention and the presence of Turkish troops on Libyan soil. They say his attack on Tripoli forced the former government to seek Turkish help. The presence of mercenaries among Haftar's forces, particularly the Russians, has further eroded his popularity. His defeat in June 2020 diminished his political options yet more.

Even so, the man is not giving up. A political expert on Libya, Hussein Abdelsalam, told MEMO, "Do not expect this septuagenarian officer to give up yet. This is a man who invested in his entire career to rule Libya and still thinks that he can."

While Haftar is yet to announce if he is going to contest the presidential election, his support is waning quickly. However, his very presence in the military and political landscape, coupled with his ability to command a sizeable military force very much loyal to him, make him an important player in Libya. For any political solution to succeed, it must include him; attempts to keep him out could lead to another war and partition of the country.

Despite his military defeat at the gates of Tripoli last year, his foreign backers believe in him and think that he still has a role to play. Russia and the UAE, among others, are convinced that Field Marshal Khalifa Haftar is worthy of their support, at least as far as their short-term objectives are concerned.

The views expressed in this article belong to the author and do not necessarily reflect the editorial policy of Middle East Monitor.

See the rest here:
What is Haftar up to in Libya? Middle East Monitor - Middle East Monitor