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By Sami Zaptia.

Happier days? PM Aldabaiba posing for a photo in parliament in March (Photo: Alrasmiya TV).

London, 23 August 2021:

The announcement that there was to be no parliamentary session discussing any topic this week send a further signal that relations between the Abd Alhamid Aldabaiba Government of National Unity (GNU) and the HoR has fast unravelled.

The sense of harmony, unity and positive outlook to the 24 December 2021 elections that came across in March this year when the HoR endorsed the GNU seems to be dissipating.

Parliament and the government are falling out

There were hints in the interview HoR head Ageela Saleh gave to Russian media, if we needed anymore hints, that the dynamic with the government has changed for the worse.

Saleh had accused the government of failing to unify the countrys institutions and that the unification of these institutions means the participation of all regions in power from ministers to embassies to investment companies. He said the government focused management in one place and increased centralization.

The budget is ancillary?

Moreover, Saleh made it clear that the Aldabaiba government did not need the 2021 budget to be passed by parliament as it was able to continue to run the country under existing legislation spending one-twelfth of last years budget (some argue one-twelfth of its proposed budget) per month.

Saleh made it clear the government only needs a budget to be passed by parliament to give it legal cover for its spending.

This lack of urgency by the HoR to hold a session to discuss the 2021 budget at the end of August underscores the fact that the government is happy to carry on its business irrespective of budgetary approval by Libyas parliament.

The government does not want a restrictive, accountable budget?

Indeed, there is a view now by Libyan analysts that the government prefers to operate without a budget. A budget would force it to categorise its spending and keep to this whilst operating without a budget Aldabaiba can spend where he wants and how he wants within the maximum amount the Tripoli-based Central Bank of Libya (CBL) grants him.

Cynics say Aldabaiba inflated his proposed budget in the face of HoRs demand that he reduces it exactly so that the HoR could reject it.

Sacrosanct rentier state-sector salaries

Moreover, the sacrosanct state-sector salaries section of the budget never stops being disbursed as long as the Tripoli-based CBL is happy to handover oil revenues to the Finance Ministry in Tripoli.

Tripoli still centre of power and money?

The whole episode underscores once again the centralization of Libyas power and decision-making in Tripoli. Tripoli is where the CBL, the National Oil Corporation, the Audit Bureau and the government lie. These four power houses can continue to function regardless of Libyas parliament in Tobruk. They did so for the period 2014 to the start of 2021 when Libya was politically split.

Aldabaiba leaving in December?

There is the view that Prime Minister Aldabaiba is not too concerned with the legal niceties. No previous Libyan Prime Minister has been held to account on his spending or decision-making. If the dream scenario that elections are indeed held on 24 December, Aldabaiba will be out of office in four months. He is not too concerned by legal cover for his spending. He will leave that to his successor. If parliament does not want to approve the budget Aldabaiba will not spend too many nights worrying over it.

Government by announcement

Aldabaiba will continue to make policy announcements and spending announcements as he visits hospitals, regions and various institutions. If parliament releases money for projects, he can take the credit, if it does not, all of Libya know parliament failed to pass the budget.

HoR making itself even less relevant?

While Aldabaiba may get away with his win-win scenario, it is unclear if the same applies to the HoR. If Aldabaiba underscores that the unified Libyan government can continue operating without parliament approving its proposed budget, it begs the question: what is the use of the HoR?

If the HoR reinforces this perception, it will make itself seem even more irrelevant to the average Libyan than it is already perceived.

Division of power

The dynamic between the HoR also underlines the problem of the respect of the clear division of power between Libyas executive and legislature. Former prime minister Ali Zeidan had spoken previously on how parliamentarians were in ever constant contact with him during his term in office trying to influence his executive decisions.

The HoR has a habit of wanting to influence details of Aldabaibas decisions. Individual members and those aligned to cities, regions and Hafter are always seeking to extract political and monetary decisions for their area or political stream at the expense of the greater national good. They have no qualms about stopping a national budget if there is nothing in it for them.

The dynamic is problematic and is holding back Libyas progress to further economic and political development least of all on the road to the planned elections.

HoR: No sessions to debate 2021 budget this week, government summoned for questioning on 30 August | (libyaherald.com)

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Libya's parliament and government are falling out: Analysis | - Libya Herald

Tunisian Foreign Minister, Othman Al-Jarandi has said that they have no objection to reopen the Ras Ajdir and Dehiba border crossings, if the scientific committee concerned with confronting Coronavirus allows it.

This came during his phone call with the Foreign Minister, Najlaa Al-Manqoush, during which he indicated that the continued closure of the crossings is a precautionary health measure, aimed at protecting the citizens of the two countries and preventing the spread of the Coronavirus pandemic.

For her part, Al-Manqoush put Al-Jarandi in a picture of the suffering of citizens on both sides, especially families and patients, noting that she is following with interest the issue of the Tunisian side continuing to close the crossings despite Libya's announcement to reopen them as of Thursday, August 19, 2021.

Libya closed the border crossings with Tunisia last July due to the spread of the Coronavirus in Tunisia, announcing last Tuesday the reopening of the crossing as of Thursday, August 19, but that the Tunisian authorities did not open the crossings from their side, which led to a state of confusion among travelers at the border.

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Tunisia: Reopening of border crossings with Libya depends on Scientific Committee's permission - The Libya Observer

MOSCOW--Russias top diplomat assured his Libyan counterpart Thursday that Moscow supports the withdrawal of all foreign fighters from the North African country and is prepared to help work out the details with other countries.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said after the talks in Moscow with Najla Mangoush that the Libyan leadership is forming a consultative mechanism to formulate the concrete parametres under which the foreign forces will leave.

Russia was among the foreign powers backing the warring sides in Libyas conflict, with some officials and media reports alleging that Russian private military contractors from the Kremlin-connected Wagner Group took part in the fighting.

We will be prepared to constructively take part in this work alongside other countries, Lavrov told a press conference.

The Libyan foreign minister said her government considers the issue of withdrawing foreign fighters important and a priority, but stressed that it should be done gradually and in a synchronised manner.

Thats why working out implementation mechanisms is necessary, Mangoush said. Such decisions are aimed to avoid repeating (the) negative lessons of some of our neighbours, to avoid an ill-considered withdrawal of troops and to avoid sliding into chaos, so that the national security of Libya doesnt suffer in the end.

Libya has been wracked by chaos since a NATO-backed uprising toppled longtime ruler Muammar Gadhafi in 2011 and split the country between a government in the capital, Tripoli and rival authorities loyal to Field Marshal Khalifa Haftar, commander of the Libyan National Army (LNA), in the east. Each was backed by different armed groups and foreign governments.

In April 2019, Haftar launched a military offensive to capture the capital. His campaign was backed by Egypt, Russia and France, while his rivals had the support of Turkey, Qatar and Italy.

Turkey, in particular, brought in military personnel and equipment as well as thousands of mercenaries from Syria.

Haftars march on Tripoli ultimately failed in June 2020. Subsequent UN-sponsored peace talks brought about a ceasefire and installed an interim government that is expected to lead the country into general elections in December.

Mangoush stressed that the withdrawal of mercenaries and foreign forces requires that we look at it in a realistic way, as the withdrawal must be regulated, pondered and in stages.

She also expressed her appreciation for the Russian efforts to support the Government of National Unity, lauding Russias positive role in launching ceasefire initiative in January 2020 and encouraging Libyans to sit together at the negotiating table.

Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergey Vershinin previously said that Moscow is not conducting negotiations about the withdrawal of foreign mercenaries from Libya, whether with Turkey or with any other country, as the Libyans themselves must resolve this problem, but if this process is launched, foreign fighters must simultaneously leave the country.

Last Saturday, the Libyan Joint Military Committee 5+5 (JMC) announced that it had agreed on a set of points, during the seventh round of negotiations in a meeting in coastal city of Sirte.

The JMCs final statement said that specific measures and an urgent plan had been agreed upon to remove all mercenaries and foreign elements from Libyan territory.

Last Sunday, the Libyan High Council of State expressed its rejection of the request by the JMC to freeze the security agreements signed by the previous Government of National Accord (GNA) with Turkey, calling on the committee to keep away from political issues or international agreements.

Ankara has up to now refused to consider the departure of its military personnel and mercenaries claiming they are covered by bilateral agreements with Libya. On November 27, 2019, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Chairman of the Presidential Council of the former Libyan Government of National Accord, Fayez al-Sarraj, had signed two memoranda of understanding covering security cooperation and maritime areas.

The deal proved highly controversial in the region and politically prolarising in Libya.

The UN estimated in December that there were at least 20,000 foreign fighters and mercenaries in Libya, including Syrians, Russians, Sudanese and Chadians.

Last month, UN Special Envoy to Libya Jan Kubis said that factions starting the withdrawal of all foreign fighters from the country would be a major step for Libya.

Originally posted here:
Are Russia's Wagner mercenaries in Libya on the way out? | | AW - The Arab Weekly

"Libya, Libya, Libya"ArabicTransliterationEnglish translationChorus

Y bilad y biladBijihd wajiladIdfa' kaydal a'adi wa-l'awadiWslam islam islamIslam la-lmadaInnan nanu-lfidLbiy Lbiy Lbiy

Y bilad anti Mrthu-ljuddLa ra'Allahu yadn tamtaddu lakFslam inn 'aladdahri jundLa nubl in salimti man halakWakhud minn wathqti-l'uhdInnan y lbiy lan nakhdilakLan na'ud lil quyudQadd taarrarn waarrarn-lwaanLbiy Lbiy Lbiy

O my country, You're the heritage of my ancestorsMay Allah not bless any hand that tries to harm youBe saved, we are for ever your soldiersNo matter the death toll if you've been savedTake from us the most credential oaths, we won't let you down, LibyaWe will never be enchained againWe are free and have freed our homelandLibya, Libya, Libya!

Y bilad y biladBijihd wajiladIdfa' kaydal a'adi wa-l'awadiWslam islam islamIslam la-lmadaInnan nanu-lfidLbiy Lbiy Lbiy

Jurrudal-ajddu azmn murhafYawma ndhum mundi-lilkifThumma sr yamilna-lmuafBlyadi-l.l wab-l.ukhr-ssilaFa.i f-l'kawni dnun waafWa.i-llamu khayrun waalaFlkhuld liljuddInnahum qad sharraf ha-lwaanLbiy Lbiy Lbiy

Our grandfathers stripped a fine determination when the call for struggle was madeThey marched carrying Qur'an in one hand,and their weapons by the other handThe universe is then full of faith and purityThe world is then a place of goodness and godlinessEternity is for our grandfathersThey have honoured this homelandLibya, Libya, Libya!

Y bilad y biladBijihd wajiladIdfa' kaydal a'adi wa-l'awadiWslam islam islamIslam la-lmadaInnan nanu-lfidLbiy Lbiy Lbiy

Huyya idrsu salilu-lftihnInnahu f Lbiy ramzu-ljihdamala-lryata fn blyamnWataba'anhu litarri-lbildFnthan blmulki walfati-lmubnWarakazn fawqa hmti-lnijdRyatan hurratanZallalat bl'azi arj al-waanLbiy Lbiy Lbiy

Extend on Idris the honour, the descendant of the conquerorHe is the symbol of struggle and JihadHe raises our flag highAnd we follow him, freeing our homeland,He allows praise of his throneAnd raises hope for Libya in heaven,A free flagOver a rich country,Libya, Libya, Libya.

Huyya al-mukhtar amir-lftihnInnahu f Lbiy ramzu-ljihdamala-lryata fn blyamnWataba'anhu litarri-lbildFnthan bljudd walfati-lmubnWarakazn fawqa hmti-lnijdRyatan hurratanallalat bl'azi arj al-waanLbiy Lbiy Lbiy

Extend on Al Mukhtar the prince of the conquerorHe is the symbol of struggle and JihadHe raises our flag highAnd we follow him, freeing our homeland,He allows praise of his ancestorsAnd raises hope for Libya in heaven,A free flagOver a rich country,Libya, Libya, Libya.

Y bilad y biladBijihd wajiladIdfa' kaydal a'adi wa-l'awadiWslam islam islamIslam la-lmadaInnan nanu-lfidLbiy Lbiy Lbiy

Y bna Lbiy y bna sda-arInnan lilmajdi walmajdu lanMu sarawn amida-lqawmu-ssurBrkallahu lan istaqlalanFbta-l'aly ash.wan f-lwarWsta'idd lilwa ashblanLil ilab ... y abbinnam-dduny kifu lilwaanLbiy Lbiy Lbiy

O son of Libya, O son of lions of the wildWe're for honour and the honours are for usSince the time of us being honoured, people thanked our generosity and honourablenessMay Allah bless our IndependenceO Libyans, seek the dizzy heights as a position in mankindOur cubs, be prepared for the foreseen battlesOur youths, to prevailLife is only a struggle for homelandLibya, Libya, Libya!

Y bilad y biladBijihd wajiladIdfa' kaydal a'adi wa-l'awadiWslam islam islamIslam la-lmadaInnan nanu-lfidLbiy Lbiy Lbiy

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Libya, Libya, Libya - Wikipedia

Recent Developments

The UN-backed Government of National Accord (GNA) declared a state of emergency in Libyas capital city of Tripoli in September 2018, less than a week after a UN cease-fire went into effect. Attempts to create a unity government have met with limited success as the House of Representatives (HoR)based in Libyas east and a key supporter of Libyan National Army's (LNA)leader General Khalifa Haftarand the GNA compete for power. Both governing bodies have created their own central banks and have consolidated control over oil fields. In May 2018, French President Emmanuel Macron convened a meeting between Haftar, GNA leader Fayez Seraj, and parliamentary leaders to discuss an end to the conflict and future elections. Though the rival groups agreed to hold elections in December 2018, UN Special Envoy to Libya Ghassan Salame said elections would be postponed until the spring of 2019.

Rival armed groups, including militia groups loyal to the LNAs Haftara Tobruk-backed former Qaddafi loyalistand the GNAs security forceshave continued to fight over access to and control of Libyas National Oil Corporation (NOC), as well as regional oil fields. In December 2018, the NOC closed Libyas largest oil field, El Sharara, due to security concerns; the LNA has since declared that the field is secure and ready to resume operations, but NOC Chairman Mustafa Sanalla refused to restart production in February 2019, stating that the field was still unsafe due to militant activity.

The presence of the self-proclaimed Islamic State, which established a foothold in the country in February 2015 and quickly gained control of the coastal city of Sirteformerly the groups most significant stronghold outside of Syria and Iraqhas further complicated the struggle for control. In July 2018, Haftar announced that the LNA had recaptured the city of Derna, the last outpost of the Islamic State militants in eastern Libya. However, the group continues to operate throughout the country and conducted an attack on Libyas foreign ministry in December 2018.

Background

Libya has struggled to rebuild state institutions since the ouster and subsequent death of former leader Muammar al-Qaddafi in October 2011. Libyas transitional government ceded authority to the newly elected General National Congress (GNC) in July 2012, but the GNC faced numerous challenges over the next two years, including the September 2012 attack by Islamist militants on the U.S. consulate in Benghazi and the spread of the Islamic State and other armed groups throughout the country.

In May 2014, Haftar launched Operation Dignity, a campaign conducted by the LNA to attack Islamist militant groups across eastern Libya, including in Benghazi. To counter this movement, Islamist militants and armed groupsincluding Ansar al-Sharia formed a coalition called Libya Dawn. Eventually, fighting broke out at Tripolis international airport between the Libya Dawn coalition, which controlled Tripoli and much of western Libya, and the Dignity coalition, which controlled parts of Cyrenaica and Benghazi in eastern Libya, and a civil war emerged.

The battle for control over Libya crosses tribal, regional, political, and even religious lines. Each coalition has created governing institutions and named military chiefsand each has faced internal fragmentation and division.In an effort to find a resolution to the conflict and create a unity government, then-UN Special Envoy to Libya Bernandino Leon, followed by Martin Kobler, facilitated a series of talks between the Tobruk-based HoR and the Tripoli-based GNC. The talks resulted in the creation of Libyan Political Agreement and the UN-supported GNA. The GNA has continued to face obstacles to creating a stable, unified government in Libya.

Taking advantage of the widespread political instability, armed Islamist groups, including Ansar al-Shariathe terrorist group allegedly responsible for the attack on the U.S. consulate in 2012and the Islamic State, have used the country as a hub to coordinate broader regional violence, further complicating efforts to create a unity government.

As a result of the continued fighting, the UN Refugee Agency estimates that more than 217,000 people have been internally displaced and approximately 1.3 million people are in need of humanitarian assistance in Libya.

Concerns

The United States, European allies, and the United Nations continued to express concern over the permanent fracture of Libya as armed militant groups have tried to divide the country along political and tribal lines. Moreover, in the absence of a primary governing body, migration and human trafficking have remained problematic.

A member of the Organization for Petroleum Exporting Companies (OPEC), Libyan oil revenues constitute more than 80 percent of Libyas total exports. As armed groups continue to fight over oil fields and restrict production, concerns have also increased over whether the country will be able to support itself economically.

See the article here:
Civil War in Libya | Global Conflict Tracker