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The U.N.-brokered process in Libya focused on the withdrawal of foreign mercenaries and parliamentary and presidential elections in December 2021 remains fragile. Still, the High National Elections Committee said that nominations for the presidency would start in November with voting cards distributed within weeks. Much is uncertain, including the powers of the presidency. Aside from token moves, those who remain include mercenaries brought in by Russia, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), and others to support General Haftars eastern-based Libyan National Army (LNA) and those brought in by Turkey, the main supporter of the Government of National Accord (GNA) in Tripoli. Reconciliation appears far off but therehas at least been a respite of over a year from fighting.

These developments must have been welcomed by the over 600,000 migrants in Libya, a destination and transit country for migrants hit hard by the conflict and worsened economic conditions exacerbated by the pandemic.But the situation appears to be worsening for those seeking asylum in Europe through the Mediterranean, and especially sub-Saharan Africans who the U.N. says are uniquely vulnerable, pointing to racism. Many are brutally detained in centers managed by the GNAs Department for Combating Illegal Immigration (DCIM) and secured by militias. Often it is Frontex, the EU border and coast guard agency, who guides the Libyan Coast Guard in illegallypushing back and detaining those seeking asylum in Europe. That cooperation increased after Italy signed a memorandum of understanding in 2017 with the GNA in Tripoli. Conditions in detention centers were already well known; German diplomats compared them to concentration camps.

A recent Amnesty International report speaks of the hellscape of detention. Medecins Sans Frontieres (MSF) withdrew from two official government detention centersbecause of violence and inhumane treatment last June. Yet, despite the Geneva Convention and EU legislation prohibiting returning asylum-seekers to unsafe territories and a European Court of Human Rights ruling citing torture and death in Libya, the practice continues.

On October 1, 2021, Ministry of Interior militias ostensibly moved against drug and human traffickers. No such arrests were announced, but over 5,000 migrants, including 540 womensome pregnantand 215 children were violently detained. According to MSF, Entire families of migrants and refugees have been captured, handcuffed and transported to detentions centers people have been hurt and even killed; families split up, homes reduced to piles of rubble.

Taken to miserably overcrowded detention centers in Tripoli already holding 7,000 people, they face extreme physical violence, including sexual violence and torture. There have been numerous attempts at escape with many shot dead, others rearrested to return to brutal detention and starvation rations. The U.N. Refugee Agency (UNHCR), which had assisted and registered most of the detained closed its day center in Tripoli when hundreds overwhelmed the facility asking for protection.

Why was the operation mounted? The answer likely lies in a cruel if lucrative business model around migrant exploitation in parts of Libya, with aspects of it increasingly in other Maghreb countries, even victimizing vulnerable locals. The Clingendael Institute says it is now more profitable to detain and further exploit migrants than get them to Europe. Detainees are beaten, tortured, and starved to get funds from their families and friends. They are subject to forced labor and forced prostitution, many are enslaved and sold, often from detention centers. In an October 2021 report by its Independent Fact-Finding Mission on Libya, the U.N. noted the commission of crimes against humanity, including in its section on migrants. Furthermore, EU border protection at any cost and pandemic closures mean that routes used by human smugglers and those for drugs, guns, and human trafficking now overlap, further endangering migrants.

The timing of the operation may lie in the pandemics impact on the economy and migration patterns in sub-Saharan Africa. A World Bank phone survey in 41 countries of the region underlined that the pandemic has seriously hurt livelihoods, food security, and human capital. Many, especially women, have lost employment, mostly in cities and towns. Closures and mobility restrictions have hurt all. Agricultural income too has declined as markets closed and prices fell. Tellingly, remittances from migrants proved surprisingly resilient and, excluding Nigeria, increased by 2.3 percent in 2020 with a 2.6 percentincrease expected in 2021.

The Mixed Migration Center sees the pandemic as a threat-multiplier, compounding existing risks and vulnerabilities for refugees and migrants. While COVID-19 may have increased the desire to migrate, it also brought decreasing resources to do so and additional fears. Thus, sea departures to Europe of sub-Saharan Africans declined even as sea departures of North Africans increased. With the flow of sub-Saharan Africans diminishedthe main victims of the detention centers and enslavementthe thousands detained in Gargaresh will allow militias to extort more funds, forced labor, and forced prostitution. For many, this would not be the first time they had to pay their way out. According to the U.N., some migrants have endured this horrific loop over 10 times.

Aside from the over 12,000 detainees, thousands of migrants remain in hiding and 4,000 are encamped at the UNHCR center, desperately seeking evacuation. One Gambia-bound evacuation flight was allowed, after a suspension of flights by the Ministry of Interior in August. Yet the EU continues to cooperate with the Libyan Coast Guard and other government agencies, having sent $455 million since 2015. And while investigations into the role of Frontex have been launched by the EU parliament, the European Ombudsman, the European Court of Auditors and other agencies, little has changed. The impunity with which Frontex and EU border and coast guard national agencies operate continues undiminished. EU agreements and legislation on human rights, including the right to apply for asylum are breached daily, including violent pushbacks along the Aegean route to Greece from Turkey and in the Balkans.

Amnesty International noted in July 2021,Violations documented against refugees and migrants are not an accident but rather the clear and anticipated outcomes of an EU-supported system of interception, disembarkation and return to detention centers notorious for abuse, built with the aim of keeping refugees and migrants out of Europe at all costs.Yet, in a political environment in which Frances far right leader, Le Pen, is being outflanked on her right by a Trump-inspired outsider, Eric Zemmour, and even Denmarks social democrats articulate a vision of a country with no asylum-seekers, the growth and persistence of anti-immigrant policies comes as no surprise.

Yet over the past year, there have been growing countervailing voices and actions. It was two 2020 investigative articles by a consortium of newspapers and the investigative media organizations Bellingcat and Lighthouse Reports on Libya and the Aegean route that prompted EUs Frontex probes. Furthermore, on May 25, 2021, three NGOs, Front-Lex, the Progress lawyers Network, and the Greek Helsinki Monitor, took Frontex to the European Court of Justice. In a first, on January 2021 Frontex ceased operations in Hungary after the European Court of Justice ruled that Budapest violated EU rules when it pushed back asylum-seekers to Serbia. Currently, Matteo Salvini, former interior minister and head of Italys right-wing League party, is in court on kidnapping charges for his 2019 denial of entry to a ship carrying migrants and asylum-seekers abandoned at sea. These are harbingers of hopefully a more humane approach to dealing with the reality of migration. All the EU has to do is follow its own values, laws, and regulations and insist on meaningful sanctions on its Libyan counterparts; and cease assisting lawless groups.

Link:
Libyas migrants and crimes against humanity - Brookings Institution

Libya faces several obstacles ahead of the elections in December as the attitudes and actions of some international actors contribute to the country's instability.

Libya has been struggling for the past 10 years with the dream of holding a free and fair election leading to the formation of a democratic government.

After 42 years of dictatorship, the dream of a democratic setup in the war-ravaged country has been elusive due to a number of factors including a decade-long internal conflict and foreign intervention.

Over the past decade the country has experienced war crimes committed by elements supported by countries like France, Egypt the UAE and Russia.

The UN-sponsored Libyan Political Dialogue Forum (LPDF) took place in the first weeks of 2021 to form a transitional government that will take Libya to elections on December 24.

One can argue that this development might not have been possible had Turkey not extended its support to the UN-backed Government of National Accord against warlord Khalifa Haftars attacks on Tripoli.

Now, the question is, whether it is actually possible for elections to take place leading to the formation of a democratic administration in Libya while there are so many international and local actors with competing agendas.

At first, the overwhelming majority of people had high hopes for a successful election, but now with only seven weeks until the vote, experts no longer seem certain.

Talking to TRT World, Abdulkader Assad, the chief editor of The Libya Observer and Libya Alahrar English, says Libya is in a very tight position.

There is relative stability but everyone is on tenterhooks about the holding of the elections because, without the vote, war and division could make a return, Assad tells.

Uncertainty on rise

Another expert, Sami Hamdi who is the Managing Director of the International Interest, a global risk and intelligence company, says the atmosphere is uncertain.

It is clear that the international community is insistent on elections taking place, and are impressing upon the parties that they will not tolerate spoilers. This is why we are seeing more and more candidates declaring their candidacy. Yet, the issue has never been elections. Rather, it is what happens after the elections and whether the losers will accept the results or go to war to overturn them, Hamdi tells TRT World.

In the last few weeks, several presidential candidates have stepped in to announce their candidacies. However, experts also believe that the announcements made by the same faces is one of the biggest challenges to free elections.

Libya is supposed to be heading toward a new democratic phase, where the people get to choose a president, a very important transition after 10 years of fragmentation, yet the list of candidates includes former ministers and officials, some war criminals like Khalifa Haftar and his backers and some foreign-agenda-driven persons like Aref Al-Nayed, UAE's man in Libya, Assad said.

According to Hamdi, the elections would be a game-changer for political dynamics in Libya.

Washington is particularly keen to see them succeed this time irrespective of the results. This sentiment appears to be shared by Libyas political actors who are choosing to run individually as opposed to under a coalition that might preserve the interests of their respective camps."

"Aguila Saleh is competing with Haftar. Dbeibah is expected to compete with Bashagha. Each of these candidates believes that the elections will offer a unique power and legitimacy superior to that provided by their respective camps, Hamdi told TRT World.

On Monday, Head of the Libyan High Council of State Khalid Al-Mishri said there are some countries that don't want stability in Libya and are creating obstacles by issuing inapplicable laws or laws that can't bring acceptable results.

"The election laws on the table now weren't issued by the House of Representatives alone, rather they were devised in Cairo, and Paris under the supervision of Abu Dhabi, in addition to the malign efforts of UNSMIL," he said.

Al-Mishri also claimed that even some of The United Nations Support Mission in Libya (UNSMIL) employees are working in violation of Security Council resolutions, despite the envoy's efforts to commit to them.

Some UNSMIL employees are working as informants for foreign intelligence services and are trying to send a message that the High Council of State and House of Representatives won't reach consensus and thus UNSMIL should back the latter's legislations, which were written in foreign capitals," Al Mishri added.

Conference on Libya

Commenting on Frances recent attempt to organise a conference on Libya ahead of elections, Assad believes that Paris has felt left out lately with the GNU becoming closer to the US and breaking away from European stakeholders like France and Italy, regarding politics.

Paris is so hopeful that holding an international conference, in the presence of Libya, would shift attention back to its role as a major stakeholder in the settlement process, Assad said.

On the other hand, Hamdi believes France is keen to remain relevant in any foreign policy debate, particularly in North Africa.

The conference is primarily a show of force that Paris is still relevant, still influential and major power. The GNU is refusing to participate because it sees the conference as a means of legitimising Haftar who plans to run for the presidency, Hamdi added.

Expressing his pessimism, Assad tells TRT World that Russia, the UAE, France and Egypt will try their best to impede elections and create hindrances before December 24.

They are already working with Haftar and HoR Speaker, Aguila Saleh in the east to create some kind of political split and anti-western region sentiment, Assad said.

If their efforts dont pay off and elections are held on time, the most obvious move is that they, particularly the UAE, will not accept anyone from outside their camp to be elected. They might also attempt to use conflict and division rhetoric to create chaos and keep Libya away from democracy as long as possible, he added.

Source: TRT World

Read more from the original source:
Free elections or war? What the future holds for Libya - TRT World

Libya will not attend the Paris Conference on Libya if the occupying state of Israel is to take part at the invitation of France, spokesman for the National Unity Government (GNU), Mohamed Hammouda, said Tuesday.

"The government is steadfast in its position and the position of all Libyans and is committed to the Palestinian cause, Hammouda explained.

The GNU spokesman said that it is not yet clear if Israel did receive an invitation to attend the event, but if confirmed, the government would not participate in the conference.

In the same context, the Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said Monday that Turkey would not attend a Paris conference on Libya that Greece, Israel, and the Greek Cypriot administration would be part of.

"If these countries are to attend the conference, then there is no need for us to send special representatives, Erdogan told journalists on his return from the G-20 summit in Rome.

French Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian announced last September that his country would host an international conference on Libya on November 12.

But Libyan politicians from the eastern and western camps threw into question the timing and the hosts' true intention towards Libya.

The Italian Nova news agency also said it had learned from European diplomats that France suggested hosting the conference in partnership with Italy and Germany, but both countries refused, due to the timing of the conference, which comes just less than a month before the date of the country's long-awaited elections, and because the conference was seen as a repetition of the Libya Stabilization Initiative which the Government of National Unity held on 21 October.

View original post here:
Libya won't attend Paris Conference with Israel, GNU says - The Libya Observer

The UN Development Program in Libya (UNDP) has committed $883,503.00 to the Promoting Elections for the People of Libya (PEOPLE) project, according to a statement by the UNPD on Tuesday.

UNPD said the High National Elections Commission (HNEC)s Chairperson, Emad Al-Sayeh signed an agreement with the UNDP Resident Representative, Marc-Andr Franche, to use the contribution to increase funding available for the procurement of electoral materials, in preparation for the countrys upcoming Presidential and Parliamentary elections.

"The PEOPLEproject supports the capacity and readiness of the HNEC to prepare and conduct electoral events. Under Libyan leadership, the project is implemented by the United Nations Electoral Support Team (UNEST), comprising experts from the UNDP Libya and the UN Support Mission in Libya (UNSMIL), who provide technical advice and support." The statement said.

Meanwhile, Al-Sayeh said HNEC signed the cost-sharing agreement with UNDP Libya to provide support to HNEC through local and international partners and to cover the procurement of electoral materials to be used in the upcoming December24 elections.

By contributing to efforts led by UNDP and UNSMIL, HNEC is supporting the right of Libyan people to determine their own leadership through elections. Along with other partners, UNDP is standing by Libya to further advance the countrys progress on free, inclusive and fair elections. Franche indicated.

See original here:
UNDP commits over $88 million to Libya's HNEC to support December elections - The Libya Observer

With its geographical proximity to Israel and its status as the scene of great power rivalry in the Middle East instability in Libya has important consequences with regard to the security and related strategic considerations for Israel.

Libyas lack of a united military apparatus, and its patchwork society, which is divided into a multitude of tribal interest groups and their respective militias, has opened doors for extremist Islamist groups to use the country as their forward operating base.

Spillover effects as a result of this state of insecurity have not only affected Libyas neighbors such as Tunisia, which saw terrorist attacks being committed on its grounds by jihadists trained in Libya as early as in 2015; or Egypt, which had to carry out pre-emptive strikes on a terrorist convoy near its border with Libya but have also reached Israel.

A relatively recent investigation revealed that Hamas used the quagmire of the Libyan civil war to build an arms-smuggling network that diverted anti-aircraft missiles from Libya via Egypt, which were destined to reach Gaza. Opportunities for operations like this to emerge in the future pose a direct security threat to Israel.

November 3, 2021 12:33 pm

Groups smuggling weapons from Libya were exposed as early as in 2011, and have posed a continuous risk to Israel ever since. The true magnitude of this effort was showcased in a spectacular way in May 2021, during the Hamas-Israel war. According to estimates released by the Israel Defense Forces, a staggering 4,400 projectiles were fired at Israel over the 11 days of the conflict. Hamas has continued to target the country ever since, and uncovering and shutting down international weapons smuggling networks has become a key priority for Israel in preparation for any future confrontation.

Continued instability in Libya also affects Israel indirectly by way of having a detrimental effect on the economies of other players in the region, including Egypt, Israels southern neighbor and longest serving Arab partner. Not only did Egypt lose tens of millions of dollars in yearly remittances provided by its migrant workers in Libya as a result of the civil war, but it is estimated that the conflict helps deprive the country of the promise of as much as 4.46% of GDP growth.

Egypts overall economic condition is relevant to Israel not only because of the ever-deepening trade relations between the two countries, but also because Egypt has taken significant responsibilities in managing the delivery of aid to the Gaza Strip via its Rafah border crossing over the years. In May 2021, Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi pledged $500 million dollars for the reconstruction of the Gaza Strip after the war. Successful efforts of rebuilding Gaza and its core public services play an important role in decreasing security threats emanating from it towards Israel.

Although a bit farther removed from Israels most immediate strategic considerations, the involvement of great powers and great power aspirants in Libyas domestic affairs will undoubtedly have important geopolitical consequences for the entire Middle East. Turkey and Russia appeared as prominent players on opposite sides of the Libyan strategic scene. Although their foreign policies are seemingly aligned on another issue of region-wide concern, i.e. Syrias ongoing civil war, markedly different considerations drive each of their actions on this issue. Arguably, neither of these serve Israels best interests.

On the one hand, Russias efforts at bolstering Benghazi-based General Khalifa Haftar and the Libyan National Army under his command have been aligned with those of Egypt and the UAE. Notwithstanding, if Haftars offensive in April 2019 had succeeded in overtaking Libyas capital, Tripoli, and especially with Russian military assistance, it is reasonable to believe that President Vladimir Putin would have eventually cashed in the favor to garner support for the full restoration of the Assad regime.

With strong Iranian support and influence behind it, the Assad regime represents a significant risk to Israels security. Syria has, for years, been used as a transit country for Irans proxy activities to prop up Hezbollah and other terror groups.

On the other hand, Turkish gains in Libya in the longer term are similarly disadvantageous from Israels perspective. Turkey is currently working with the countrys leadership on economic and other initiatives, and any future Libyan power structure that grows out of the current government, led by Prime Minister Abdul-Hamid Dbeibah, would entail significant strategic gains for Turkey. Intervening in Libyas domestic affairs is also a part of Turkeys broader efforts of projecting its power across the Muslim world as envisioned by Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his former foreign minister, Ahmet Davutoglu. This is especially concerning with regard to Israel because Turkeys Muslim foreign policy rhetoric touches on the question of the status of Jerusalem, as well as guardianship over the Temple Mount.

While it deferred any final decision on the contentious issue of the restoration of Assad for the time being, Turkeys true interests lie in making sure that Syrias north-eastern Kurdish territories do not gain independence. This is crucial for Erdogan. Turkeys best bet at currently guaranteeing this outcome is the return to some form of the pre-civil-war political configuration of Syria under Assad. Again, based on the above, it is clear how such a scenario would pave the way for stronger Iranian influence in the region, at the detriment of Israels interests.

Israel did well not to get entangled in the multi-party quagmire of vying for direct influence in Libya. An alternative proactive policy path for Israel would be helping foster the emergence of a truly impartial Libyan authority structure one that owes no favors to either Russia and Arab states on the one hand, or Turkey on the other, but which is more aligned with the liberal and democratic political ideals that Israel itself strives for.

Current political developments from inside Libya, complete with political clashes and the postponement of planned parliamentary elections, suggest that stability is not within reach in the near future. In the meantime, for direct, indirect, and broader geopolitical reasons, Israel should continue to follow developments in Libya closely.

Patrik Kurath is the executive vice president of the Middle East and North Africa Forum, a think tank based at the University of Cambridge.

Link:
Why Israel Should Care About the Future of Libya - Algemeiner