Archive for the ‘Libya’ Category

Libyas Economic Outlook- April 2017 – World Bank

The lengthy conflict is taking a heavy toll on the Libyan economy and the well-being of the population. Obstructed by the conflict, production of oil, the main source of income in Libya, has been steadily declining over the last 4 years to reach around 0.38 million barrel per day (bpd) in 2016, which is less than 1/4 of pre-revolution levels. As a result, the Libyan economy shrank by an estimated 2.5% in 2016, with estimated real GDP falling to less than half of its pre-revolution level.

The economic outlook assumes that a new functioning government is endorsed this year. In this context, the dynamics in the hydrocarbon sector triggered during the last quarter of 2016 is expected to continue, translating into higher production of oil, which is projected to progressively reach 1 million bpd by end-2017, still rep-resenting only two thirds of potential. On this basis, GDP is projected to increase by 40%. Although improving, the twin deficits will remain, as revenues from oil will not be sufficient to cover high budget expenditures and consumption-driven imports. This should keep the budget deficit at about 18.8% of GDP and the current account deficit at 15.3% of GDP in 2017.

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Libyas Economic Outlook- April 2017 - World Bank

How is Libya Reacting to Low Oil Prices? – World Bank

The country is struggling with civil war, two governments (the Tripoli-based government (General National Congress (GNC)) and the Tobruk-based government (Elected parliament), insurgencies in oil fields, and low oil prices. Libya relies on oil for 98 % of its exports and fiscal revenues (Figure 8). The Tripoli-based government produced 500,000 barrels of oil a day in 2015 and exported almost 450,000 b/d. Two separate budgets were approved in 2015: the Tripoli based government approved a budget of about 42.9 billion LYD with exports of half a million b/d of oil (more than half of its exports in 2012) with a price of $50 a barrel. Public sector wages and salaries and food and fuel subsidies constitute more than half of the spending in the budget. As the pressure from low oil prices kicked in, the GNC decided to reform the huge food and fuel subsidies, replacing them with monthly cash transfers in the amount of 50 Dinars ($36.5) for each citizen. But the idea was rejected by the Parliament.

In response to low oil prices, some austerity measures have been taken, but at the same time the government is rewarding public employees in the education sector with 300 Dinars ($219) in extra pay. Public sector wages and salaries, and subsidies account for half of the governments expenses. The fiscal deficit has reached a record high, estimated at 60 % of GDP in 2016. The Tripoli government has resorted to the Central Banks reserves which have been falling to $70 billion in 2016 from $120 billion in 2012. If the trend continues, Libya will run out of reserves in less than 4 years. The rival government in Tobruk resorted to borrowing from the Central Bank. The Libyan Dinar is under significant pressure from low export revenues due to cheap oil and lower oil production and the international sanctions on exportation of dollar currency to Libya since 2013. The Libyan Dinar is traded at the black market rate for almost three times the official rate at the Central Bank.

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How is Libya Reacting to Low Oil Prices? - World Bank

Libya Overview – World Bank

The cost of the political conflict has taken a severe toll on the Libyan economy, which has remained in recession for the third consecutive year in 2015. Political strife, weak security conditions, and blockaded oil infrastructures continue to constrain the supply side of the economy. Production of crude oil fell to around 0.4 million barrels per day (bpd) or the fourth of potential. The non-hydrocarbon output remained weak due to disruptions in the supply chains of both domestic and foreign inputs, as well as lack of financing. In this context, GDP is estimated to have declined by 10 percent and per capita income has fallen to less than US$ 4,500 compared to almost US$ 13,000 in 2012. Inflation strongly accelerated last year driven by high food prices. Lack of funding to finance imports, especially subsidized food, generated chronic shortages in basic commodities and expansion of black markets activities. This situation was exacerbated by households attempting to stockpile food. Inflation averaged 9.2 percent in 2015, mainly driven by a 13.7 percent rise in food prices. Prices of flour and bread quintupled.

Protracted political standoff, coupled with lower international oil prices and generous subsidies have weakened public finances and external position. Budget revenues from the hydrocarbon sector have fallen to only a fifth of their pre-revolution levels, while spending has remained high. The share of the public wage bill in GDP is astronomic (around 60 percent), mainly reflecting a plethoric public sector. Meanwhile, investments have been insufficient for sustaining adequate public provision for health, education, electricity, water and sanitation services. However, savings have been realized on subsidies thanks to tougher control of the supply chains of subsidized products and lower import prices. Overall, the budget deficit rose from 43 percent of GDP in 2014 to more than 75 percent of GDP in 2015. Being highly dependent on hydrocarbon exports and food imports, Libyas balance of payments suffered in 2015. Representing 97 percent of total exports, oil receipts are estimated to have declined to less than 15 percent of their 2012 level. Meanwhile, consumption driven imports remained high. As a result, the current account swung from balance in 2013 to a deficit estimated at around 76 percent of GDP in 2015. To finance these deficits, net foreign reserves are rapidly being depleted.

Improvement of the economic outlook depends crucially on the endorsement by the House of Representatives of the Government of National Accord (GNA) formed under the auspices of the UN. The economic and social outlook assumes that the GNA is eventually empowered to restore security and launch a comprehensive program to rebuild the economic and social infrastructures. In this context, GDP is projected to increase strongly in 2016. However, the twin deficits will prevail as oil revenues will not be sufficient to cover the high budget expenditures and consumption-driven imports. Over the medium term, as oil production returns to full capacity, growth is projected to rebound at two digit growth rates in 2017 and 2018, before stabilizing thereafter between 5 and 6 percent.

Libya Public Finance

Figure 1 below provides a snapshot of 2012-2015 Libyan national budget. During the 2010-2013 period, the executed budget did not typically exceed the overall amount authorized by parliament, but its composition substantially differed from that of the approved budget. The overall rate of budget execution was around 80 percent in 2010 and 2012 and was about 93 percent in 2013. There has been no approved (official) budget over the past two years (2014-2015). In FY2012, development budget spending accounted for slightly more than 52% of all government spending, with wages and salaries comprising 24%. However, over the past several years, development spending has virtually collapsed, comprising an estimated 15% of total government spending in FY2015, down from a budgeted 52% of total budget spending in FY2012.

Although several budgets have been presented by the Tripoli Administration and the HOR (Tobruk, Eastern Administration), the Central Bank of Libya (CBL) did not acknowledge any budget as being the legal, legitimate Libyan budget for FY2015. In effect, neither the budget submitted by rival Parliaments in Tripoli and in the Eastern city of Tobruk have been recognized. The Central Bank of Libya (CBL) has only disbursed funds regarding wages and salaries (Chapter 1); student scholarships abroad; oil/gas sector development; electricity (chapter 3); and, essential subsides items (Chapter 4).

Immediate challenges are to manage fiscal spending pressures while restoring and improving basic public services. A longer term goal is to help develop the framework and institutions for a more diversified market-based economy, broadening the economic base beyond the oil and gas sector. Although the Banks post-conflict engagement was initially expected to accompany only Libyas short term economic recovery efforts, the transition program will lay the foundation for longer term goals. This includes creating a more vibrant and competitive economy with a level playing field for the private sector to create sustainable jobs and wealth. It also includes transforming the management of oil revenues to ensure they are used in the best interests of the country and to the benefit of all citizens equally. This will also ensure that citizens have a role in defining and voicing their communities best interests.

Last Updated:Mar 31, 2016

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Libya Overview - World Bank

American Drone Strike in Libya Kills Top Qaeda Recruiter …

The area is also close to major oil fields that were crippled by violent ethnic feuding in 2015.

I wouldnt say this is the beginning of a wider campaign, Col. Mark Cheadle, the Africa Commands chief spokesman, said in an email. But, he added, If we find targets we can strike, and it is appropriate to do so, I think we would certainly consider the option.

Colonel Cheadle said that Mr. Dawud was a significant fixer for Al Qaeda. Other American military officials said that Mr. Dawud had been under surveillance for a significant period of time but gave no details about how he was tracked to a house and killed with another Qaeda fighter. The command said that no civilians were believed to have been killed in the attack.

The State Department said in 2016 that Mr. Dawud was a specially designated global terrorist. He began engaging in terrorist activity as early as 1992, the State Department said at the time.

Pictures in Libyan news outlets showed a mutilated corpse lying in the rubble of a house and a pair of shrapnel-ridden vehicles nearby. Residents were quoted as saying that the house had been frequented by foreigners.

The strike came as the Trump administration has been reassessing the American military commitment in North and West Africa after an ambush in Niger in October that killed four American soldiers. The Pentagon has been preparing to fly armed drone missions from Nigers capital, Niamey, a step that diplomats and analysts say could further widen the Pentagons shadow war in that part of the continent.

The American military is also building a $100 million drone base in Agadez, north of Niamey, that is set to begin operations this year.

In a sign of how the Pentagon has sought to obscure its operations in Libya and other parts of northwestern Africa, the Africa Command initially did not announce the strike. It responded to questions from The New York Times late Saturday with a terse statement after news reports about the strike circulated in Libya.

The command on Wednesday identified Mr. Dawud as the target of the attack and confirmed his death after operational reporting and an analysis of the strikes damage was complete.

Questions about whether the American military, under the Trump administration, is blurring the scope of operations in Africa were raised this month when it was revealed that the U.S. had carried out four airstrikes in Libya from September to January that the Africa Command did not disclose at the time.

The commands statement, coupled with Colonel Cheadles comments, left little doubt that American airstrikes could soon expand in southern Libya.

Al Qaeda and other terrorist groups, such as ISIS, have taken advantage of undergoverned spaces in Libya to establish sanctuaries for plotting, inspiring and directing terror attacks, the statement said. Left unaddressed, these organizations could continue to inflict casualties on the civilian populations and security forces, and plot attacks against U.S. citizens and allied interests in the region.

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American Drone Strike in Libya Kills Top Qaeda Recruiter ...

Hillary Emails Reveal True Motive for Libya Intervention …

Newly disclosed emails show that Libyas plan to create a gold-backed currency to compete with the euro and dollar was a motive for NATOs intervention.

The New Years Eve release of over 3,000 new Hillary Clinton emails from the State Department has CNN abuzz over gossipy text messages, the who gets to ride with Hillary selection process set up by her staff, and how a cute Hillary photo fared on Facebook.

But historians of the 2011 NATO war in Libya will be sure to notice a few of the truly explosive confirmations contained in the new emails: admissions of rebel war crimes, special ops trainers inside Libya from nearly the start of protests, Al Qaeda embedded in the U.S. backed opposition, Western nations jockeying for access to Libyan oil, the nefarious origins of the absurd Viagra mass rape claim, and concern over Gaddafis gold and silver reserves threatening European currency.

A March 27, 2011, intelligence brief[archived here] on Libya, sent by long time close adviser to the Clintons and Hillarys unofficial intelligence gatherer, Sidney Blumenthal, contains clear evidence of war crimes on the part of NATO-backed rebels. Citing a rebel commander source speaking in strict confidence Blumenthal reports to Hillary [emphasis mine]:

Under attack from allied Air and Naval forces, the Libyan Army troops have begun to desert to the rebel side in increasing numbers. The rebels are making an effort to greet these troops as fellow Libyans, in an effort to encourage additional defections.

(Source Comment: Speaking in strict confidence, one rebel commander stated that his troops continue to summarily execute all foreign mercenaries captured in the fighting).

While the illegality of extra-judicial killings is easy to recognize (groups engaged in such are conventionally termed death squads), the sinister reality behind the foreign mercenaries reference might not be as immediately evident to most.

While over the decades Gaddafi was known to make use of European and other international security and infrastructural contractors, there is no evidence to suggest that these were targeted by the Libyan rebels.

There is, however, ample documentation by journalists, academics, and human rights groups demonstrating that black Libyan civilians and sub-Saharan contract workers, a population favored by Gaddafi in his pro-African Union policies, were targets of racial cleansing by rebels who saw black Libyans as tied closely with the regime.[1]

Black Libyans were commonly branded as foreign mercenaries by the rebel opposition for their perceived general loyalty to Gaddafi as a community and subjected to torture, executions, and their towns liberated by ethnic cleansing. This is demonstrated in the most well-documented example of Tawergha, an entire town of 30,000 black and dark-skinned Libyans which vanished by August 2011 after its takeover by NATO-backedNTC Misratan brigades.

These attacks were well-known as late as 2012 and often filmed, as this report from The Telegraph confirms:

After Muammar Gaddafi was killed, hundreds of migrant workers from neighboring states were imprisoned by fighters allied to the new interim authorities. They accuse the black Africans of having been mercenaries for the late ruler. Thousands of sub-Saharan Africans have been rounded up since Gaddafi fell in August.

It appears that Clinton was getting personally briefed on the battlefield crimes of her beloved anti-Gaddafi fighters long before some of the worst of these genocidal crimes took place.

The same intelligence email from Sydney Blumenthal also confirms what has become a well-known theme of Western supported insurgencies in the Middle East: the contradiction of special forces training militias that are simultaneously suspected of links to Al Qaeda.

Blumenthal relates that an extremely sensitive source confirmed that British, French, and Egyptian special operations units were training Libyan militants along the Egyptian-Libyan border, as well as in Benghazi suburbs.

While analysts have long speculated as to the when and where of Western ground troop presence in the Libyan War, this email serves as definitive proof that special forces were on the ground only within a month of the earliest protests which broke out in the middle to end of February 2011 in Benghazi.

By March 27 of what was commonly assumed a simple popular uprising external special operatives were already overseeing the transfer of weapons and supplies to the rebels including a seemingly endless supply of AK47 assault rifles and ammunition.

Yet only a few paragraphs after this admission, caution is voiced about the very militias these Western special forces were training because of concern that, radical/terrorist groups such as the Libyan Fighting Groups and Al Qaida in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) are infiltrating the NLC and its military command.

Though the French-proposed U.N. Security Council Resolution 1973 claimed the no-fly zone implemented over Libya was to protect civilians, an April 2011 email[archived here] sent to Hillary with the subject line Frances client and Qaddafis gold tells of less noble ambitions.

The email identifies French President Nicholas Sarkozy as leading the attack on Libya with five specific purposes in mind: to obtain Libyan oil, ensure French influence in the region, increase Sarkozys reputation domestically, assert French military power, and to prevent Gaddafis influence in what is considered Francophone Africa.

Most astounding is the lengthy section delineating the huge threat that Gaddafis gold and silver reserves, estimated at 143 tons of gold, and a similar amount in silver, posed to the French franc (CFA) circulating as a prime African currency. In place of the noble sounding Responsibility to Protect (R2P) doctrine fed to the public, there is this confidential explanation of what was really driving the war [emphasis mine]:

This gold was accumulated prior to the current rebellion and was intended to be used to establish a pan-African currency based on the Libyan golden Dinar. This plan was designed to provide the Francophone African Countries with an alternative to the French franc (CFA).

(Source Comment: According to knowledgeable individuals this quantity of gold and silver is valued at more than $7 billion. French intelligence officers discovered this plan shortly after the current rebellion began, and this was one of the factors that influenced President Nicolas Sarkozys decision to commit France to the attack on Libya.)

Though this internal email aims to summarize the motivating factors driving Frances (and by implication NATOs) intervention in Libya, it is interesting to note that saving civilian lives is conspicuously absent from the briefing.

Instead, the great fear reported is that Libya might lead North Africa into a high degree of economic independence with a new pan-African currency.

French intelligence discovered a Libyan initiative to freely compete with European currency through a local alternative, and this had to be subverted through military aggression.

Early in the Libyan conflict Secretary of State Clinton formally accused Gaddafi and his army of using mass rape as a tool of war. Though numerous international organizations, like Amnesty International, quickly debunked these claims, the charges were uncritically echoed by Western politicians and major media.

It seemed no matter how bizarre the conspiracy theory, as long as it painted Gaddafi and his supporters as monsters, and so long as it served the cause of prolonged military action in Libya, it was deemed credible by network news.

Two foremost examples are referenced in the latest batch of emails: the sensational claim that Gaddafi issued Viagra to his troops for mass rape, and the claim that bodies were staged by the Libyan government at NATO bombing sites to give the appearance of the Western coalition bombing civilians.

In a late March 2011 email[WikiLeaks copy here], Blumenthal confesses to Hillary that,

I communicated more than a week ago on this storyQaddafi placing bodies to create PR stunts about supposed civilian casualties as a result of Allied bombingthough underlining it was a rumor. But now, as you know, Robert gates gives credence to it. (See story below.)

Sources now say, again rumor (that is, this information comes from the rebel side and is unconfirmed independently by Western intelligence), that Qaddafi has adopted a rape policy and has even distributed Viagra to troops. The incident at the Tripoli press conference involving a woman claiming to be raped is likely to be part of a much larger outrage. Will seek further confirmation.

Not only did Defense Secretary Robert Gates promote his bizarre staged bodies theory on CBS News Face The Nation, but the even stranger Viagra rape fiction made international headlines as U.S. Ambassador to the UN Susan Rice made a formal charge against Libya in front of the UN Security Council.

What this new email confirms is that not only was the State Department aware of the spurious nature of what Blumenthal calls rumors originating solely with the rebels, but did nothing to stop false information from rising to top officials who then gave them credence.

It appears, furthermore, that the Viagra mass rape hoax likely originated with Sidney Blumenthal himself.

[1] The most comprehensive and well-documented study of the plight of black Libyans is contained in Slouching Towards Sirte: NATOs War on Libya and Africa (publ. 2012, Baraka Books) by Maximilian Forte, Professor Anthropology and Sociology at Concordia University in Montral, Qubec.

This article was originally published at theLevant Reportand has been used here with permission.

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