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After being absent from the divided Libyan political landscape for months, Moscow again made headlines by hosting Gen. Khalifa Hifter for a three-day visit earlier this month, meeting with the foreign and defense ministers, his usual Russian interlocutors. Once again, the generals visit had experts debating exactly what role Russia plays in mentoring Hifter and whether Russia really sees him as its point-man in Libya.

The focus of Hifters visit resembled that of his previous trips to the Russian capital, touching on the security situation in Libya. The general reiterated his request for Russian military aid to his Libyan National Army, despite countless previous rejections. His request remains unfulfilled. Speaking to Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, Hifter expressed the hope that Russia would become involved in the process of national reconciliation in Libya. All in all, it would have been a routine visit, absent any remarkable developments, had it not been for the context in which the trip took place.

Hifter, who leads one of the sides vying for control of the Libyan government in Tobruk, was greeted at the airport by the Libyan ambassador to Russia, who represents the interests of the other side, the UN-backed so-called unity government in Tripoli, led by Prime Minister Fayez al-Sarraj. It was not an effort by Sarraj to reach out, but Russias attempt to generate a dialogue between the two sides. The Tripoli government formally took over the Libyan Embassy in Moscow in early August, with Russias consent, and representatives of the Tobruk-based authorities followed soon thereafter to claim space of its own.

Lev Dengov, head of Russias contact group for a Libyan settlement, explained in a recent interview with the Interfax news agency, They share the same building, by way of which we are bringing them closer to each other and making them work together.

Ahead of Hifters trip, Russian officials suggested that perhaps both the general and Sarraj could make it to Moscow for simultaneous talks. That idea was quickly dismissed, however. While commenting on Hifters meetings with Lavrov and Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu, Dengov said that Sarraj might travel to Russia as soon as September he last visited in March to discuss a new round of direct talks with Hifter in Moscow. Having Moscow emerge as the main intermediary for Tripoli and Tobruk is probably the desired, and arguably the most realistic, outcome of the Libyan policy Russian diplomats are working toward at the moment.

Russias timing in expediting talks between Hifter and Sarraj in Moscow is curious. It is probably because movement to settle the Libyan conflict has accelerated significantly in recent weeks, while Russia has remained relatively uninvolved. Moscow had publicly welcomed the emergence of a new platform for Libyan dialogue in Paris, where the two sides agreed on a cease-fire July 25. Moscow felt, however, that France, which had previously played only a marginal role, was trying to hijack the mediation effort Russia had been making for the past year. While the Kremlin boasts of having established strong ties with all parties to the Libyan conflict, it has not managed to position itself as the main mediator, while France as well as the United Arab Emirates (UAE) have succeeded in doing exactly that.

After Hifter and Sarrajs Paris meeting, which observers interpreted as a diplomatic success, the conflict quickly escalated, as Sarraj reportedly authorized Italian naval vessels to sail into Libyan waters to help control the flow of migrants heading for Italy. The move sparked dissent in both Tobruk and Tripoli, with Hifter accusing Sarraj of authorizing an invasion of the countrys territory. Sarraj responded that he had only requested limited support.

While Italian vessels are only supposed to patrol the Libyan coast, this is an alarming development for Russia, which has mulled making its own presence known along the coast since 2015. A short detour to Tobruk by the Russian aircraft carrier Admiral Kuznetsov in January 2017 was the boldest statement by the military in Libya, as no one was expecting such a move.

Moscow is not ready to commit to maintaining Libyas maritime security, as it sees no clear political benefit in doing so as long as the flow of migrants from Libya to Europe can be used as leverage in talks with the European Union. In the meantime, against all odds, Italy took matters into its own hands and decided to stop the influx of migrants from Africa. This killed Russias hope that no country would opt for a military deployment to Libya and thereby allow it to stake sole claim to leading the effort to resolve the Libyan crisis.

With Ghassan Salame replacing Martin Kobler as head of the United Nations Support Mission in Libya, hopes are high that the political peace process will now start gaining traction. Salame, a former Lebanese culture minister, is, however, a dark horse to the Russians. He has no prior experience engaging with Russian diplomats. In fact, a Russian diplomat told Al-Monitor that Salame's background is chiefly with Western nongovernmental organizations, such as the International Crisis Group and the Center for Humanitarian Dialogue, which Russia treats with a great deal of suspicion. Salame is expected to visit Moscow soon, Lavrov told the media during Hifters visit.

By hosting Hifter in Moscow ahead of the new envoys visit, the Kremlin is emerging on his radar and sending him a very clear message that Russian support for Salames Libyan initiatives will be crucial. Moreover, having Hifter meet the Russian defense minister in Moscow again makes it look as if Russia is flirting with the idea of getting involved in the conflict militarily, something that worries Western powers.

The trip to Moscow allowed Hifter to pursue his own interests as well. No doubt he has noticed that Russia has significantly changed its stance on the Libyan conflict and has moved to somewhat distance itself from the general, at least publicly. On the one hand, the Kremlin has gone to great lengths to keep Hifter in the diplomatic domain, but on the other hand it has not given him what he has asked for in return, and this appears to be unsettling to him. The Tobruk general marketed himself in Russia as the conqueror of extremists in Libya, and in return he expected a real show of support from Russia.

You probably know that the Libyan National Army is making a huge sacrifice to destroy terrorism, Hifter told Lavrov. The fierce battles have been ongoing for three months despite the continuing arms embargo and unlimited support of terrorists by finance and weapons.

Hifter was talking about the UN-backed international arms embargo against him and his army. The United Nations says the United Arab Emirates has been supplying Hifter with weapons in violation of the embargo.

Russia faces a dilemma in its relations with the general. In his recent interview with the daily Kommersant, Dengov dismissed Hifters claims of having liberated 90% of eastern Libyan from terrorists. Commenting on the contact groups efforts to communicate with all forces fighting IS in Libya, Dengov said, We wanted to see them [the anti-IS militias] get to know these people and verify the information that they played the decisive role in destroying IS in Libya and not Khalifa Hifter, who attributed these merits to himself.

At the same time, Moscow cannot drop its support of the general. He is the best chance Russia has to remain relevant in Libya. Without a hard element to its Libya policy which at this time is Hifters army the Kremlins international standing decreases significantly, both in Libya and in the broader region.

Meanwhile, Hifter is dealing with the same conundrum in his relations with Moscow. He is desperate for Russian weapons that would solidify his alliance with the Kremlin and position him above his domestic competitors. By going too far with his demands, however, the general risks alienating Moscow entirely, especially ahead of looming talks on potential amendments to the Libyan Political Agreement, the pact signed in 2015 creating the unity government.

Found in: italy, migrants, france, sergey lavrov, libyan national army, fayez al-sarraj, tobruk, khalifa hifter

Excerpt from:
Russia weighs its role as arbiter in Libya - Al-Monitor

The group is said to be responsible for the sudden drop in migrant arrivals to Italy in recent months

Migrant crossings to Italy from Libya have fallen by more than 50% in July and August when compared to the same period last year

The city has been a key point of departure for human smugglers andthe groups activities arebelieved to be behind the recent drop in migrant arrivals, which have falled by more than 50%in July and August.

Citing sources on the ground in Sabratha, located some 70km west of Tripoli, the report saidthe armed group was preventing migrants from leaving Libya, often locking them up in the process.

[The group] works on the ground, the beach, to prevent the migrants leaving on boats towards Italy, one civil society organizer from the city was quoted saying, adding that it was made up of several hundred civilians, policemen and army figures.

A second unidentified source is also quoted as saying that the very strong campaign being undertaken by the group, had been launched by a former mafia boss.

The sources said the unnamed group was also running a detention centre for migrants who are turned back or taken from smugglers, with one having sent a picture with hundreds of migrants sitting in the sand in front of a high wall.

Moreover, one of the sources also told Reuters that he believed the group was seeking legitimacy and financial support from Tripoli. In recent months, the European Commission has tried to work with the UN-backed Government of National Accord (GNA) to stem migrant flows.

Last month, Fayez al-Serraj, the head of the GNA, was reported to have requested Italian naval support in its battle against human smugglers operating in its territorial waters. Despite Serrajs subsequent denial, GNA foreign minister Mohamed Siala is reported to have said that a request for logistical, technical and operational support to the Libyan coast guard had in fact been made.

Italy has been trying to bolster the GNA's ability to stop people smuggling with cash, training and by sending a ship to help repair Tripoli's coastguard and navy vessels.

In February, during the Malta Summit, EU leaders agreed on a plan to forge ahead with a 200 million package modelled on the EU-Turkey deal - that was to include stopping refugee boats from Libya by offering training and support the Libyan coast guard and intensifying defence on the North African states southern border.

The agreement was described by Maltese Prime Minister Joseph Muscat as the European Unions first decent shot at a proper management of migratory flows in the central Mediterranean.

Libya has remained in a state of conflict since Muammar Gaddafi was ousted six years ago, with rival governments and groups across its territory all vying for power.

Last month, the countrys two leading political rivals, Serraj and General Khalifa Haftar, who control much of the the east of the country, agreed to a ceasefire and fresh elections next year.

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Libyan armed group preventing migrants from crossing Mediterranean media report - MaltaToday

The shutdown of Libyas Sharara oilfield, the countrys largest field, has once again shown that expected production growth of several OPEC countries should not be taken for granted.

Even though several media sources have been publishing overwhelmingly optimistic reports about the security situation in the country, especially after the unexpected production boost of Libyas battered oil and gas sector, the perceived peace between General Khalifa Haftars LNA and the East Libyan government (HoR), remains shaky at best.

A pipeline blockade by an armed group has hindered the loading of Sharara crude from the Zawya oil terminal since Sunday. Libyas national oil company, NOC, has already declared a force majeure. The Sharara oil field, run by a JV of Libyas NOC and international oil companies Repsol, Total, OMV and Statoil, is crucial to the revival of Libyan oil production, as it is currently producing around 280,000 bpd. In the past several weeks, production has been shut down several times, due to protests by oil workers and armed guards. Currently, the location of the blockade, as well as the demands of the protesters remain unknown.

Analysts are still optimistic about the future of Libyas oil sector, but given the ongoing battle for power within the country, this could be wishful thinking. The security situation has drastically improved, and the NOC, in cooperation with national security forces and the oil guards, have been able to deal with continuing strikes and disruptions effectively. NOC CEO Mustafa Sanallas efforts to get operations running, even visiting conflict areas in person, has made a substantial difference in the region. The NOC CEO has also attempted to woo international oil companies to resume investment in the countrys oil sector, while ending blockades of ports and reopening attractive fields. Additionally, the primary complaints of oil workers have been addressed, as outstanding salary payments and security issues were previously not met.

Libyas oil production is now officially above 1 million bpd, which is almost 4 times more than the year prior. Back in 2011, Libya produced around 1.6 million bpd, but the civil war following the removal of Libyas dictator Muammar Khaddaffi saw oil production plunge. Libyan oil experts expect a steady 1.2 million bpd production by the end of 2017. Related:Forget Oil Prices, Oil Majors Are A Buy

Despite the NOCs best efforts to boost output, recent developments on the ground are very worrying. After a short thaw between the main players in the conflict, the Libyan government (HoR) and the Libyan general Haftars LNA, tensions are once again on the rise. The deal between the HoR and LNA now is seen by others as a threat to their own positions. A real political solution will not only lead to power clashes with the other armed militias and IS affiliates, but could also have direct negative repercussions on oil and gas production. For all players, access to the oil and gas sector is essential. The revenues from oil and gas production are not only the main lifeline for the country but are also funding the armed militias in the conflict.

At the same time, international pressure on both sides could lead to increased insecurity. The arrest by the LNA of the commander of its elite forces unit, Mahmoud Al-Werfalli, as demanded by the International Criminal Court (ICC), may lead to a possible internal conflict. Al-Werfalli is wanted by the ICC for allegedly executing dozens of prisoners. The LNA has arrested him to be investigated by a military prosecutor. Werfallis Special Forces is seen as a powerful elite unit under LNA control which joined the Benghazi campaign in its early stages. It is unclear at present if the LNA will hand over Al-Werfalli to the ICC in due course. The group also holds the control of most of Libyas oil and gas fields.

A potential power struggle within this group could once again lead to blockades, outages and falling exports.

By Cyril Widdershoven for Oilprice.com

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Libya's Biggest Oil Field Shut Down As Tensions Rise - OilPrice.com

Libya halted loadings from its biggest oil field in the latest disruption to the OPEC nations crude production and shipments.

Force majeure was declared since Saturday on shipments from Sharara, made through the Zawiya export terminal, state-run National Oil Corp. Chairman Mustafa Sanalla said Monday by phone.Force majeure is a legal status protecting a party from liability if it cant fulfill a contract for reasons beyond its control.

A local armed group, which had closed the pipeline linking to the port of Sharara to demand the release from prison of one of its members, evacuated the area late Monday, Wessam Al-Messmari, an office manager at Petroleum Facilities Guard, said by phone. The PFG took control of the area and asked the state oil company to reopen the pipeline, he said. Al-Messmari had said earlier Monday that the pipeline should reopen within hours.

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Libya is reviving its oil production and exports in spite of continuing political uncertainty. In July, crude production was at a four-year high and exports were the most in three years, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. While the expansion has helped Libyas oil-dependent economy, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries is trying to cut global supplies. That effort has been undermined by recovering output at OPEC members Libya and Nigeria.

Libya, which holds Africas largest crude reserves, pumped1.02 million barrels a day in July. It was producing 1.6 million barrels a day before a 2011 revolt set off years of fighting between rival governments and militias.

Sharara has experienced several brief shutdowns caused by different groups this year. The oil field closed for two days in June due to a protest by workers there. Pumping was interrupted for several hours earlier this month after armed protesters shut some facilities. Production was 230,000 barrels a day, a person familiar with the situation said at the time. In April, the NOC declared force majeure at Zawiya after the pipeline stopped operating.

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Libya Halts Biggest Oil Field Loadings in Latest Disruption - Bloomberg

Sources from the Libyan Football Federation (LFF) said officials had agreed with Algerian counterparts to hold a friendly match between Libya and Algeria in Tripoli before the start of the CHAN 2018 in Kenya.

Libya drew with Algeria last Thursday in Sfax Tunisia as part of the CHAN 2018 qualifiers. Libya made it through to the competition as it had already won 2-1 in the first leg match in Algeria.

The member of the executive bureau of the LFF, Yunis Al-Kezza, was cited by Algerian Al-Shurooq newspaper as saying that he met with Algerian officials and agreed to have a friendly match in Tripoli, adding that the Chairman of the Algerian Football Federation had welcomed the idea.

Meanwhile, the LFF promised to hold a friendly match in Tripoli with spectators in the stadium to show the Confederation of African Football and the FIFA that Libya is ready to host its teams' games at Libyan stadiums.

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Tripoli to host friendly match between Libya and Algeria - The Libya Observer