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Once considered a fringe pipe dream, the once taboo idea of Israelis recolonizing portions of Gaza has been reinvigorated after Hamas October 7 attack and the subsequent Israeli war on the embattled Palestinian territory, which has killed more than 22,000 Palestinians, internally displaced more than 1.9 million, and reduced the majority of the Strip into rubble.

Just as 2024 began, Israeli politicians renewed calls to recolonize Gaza, and recent remarks from Israeli lawmakers coupled with a new settler-colonist campaign suggest that Israeli annexation of the beleaguered Palestinian territory has been adopted as official government policy.

On January 1, 2024, Israeli National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir told the press and members of his Jewish Power Party that the war presents an opportunity to concentrate on encouraging the migration of the residents of Gaza, proclaiming,

We cannot withdraw from any territory we are in in the Gaza Strip. Not only do I not rule out Jewish settlement there, I believe it is also an important thing,

Israeli Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich echoed Ben Gvirs remarks during his partys faction meeting, touting,

[the] correct solution [is] to encourage the voluntary migration of Gazas residents to countries that will agree to take in the refugees.

Talking to members of his Religious Zionism Party, Smotrich predicted that Israel will permanently control the territory of the Gaza Strip, as well as reestablish settlements there. A few days before, in an interview with Israels Channel 12, Smotrich said,

We will rule there [Gaza] security-wise, and in order to rule there security-wise for a long time, we will have to be a civilian there.

In a separate incident on Monday, Yisrael Beytenu (Israel is our home) party leader Avigdor Liberman advocated for Israel to reoccupy southern Lebanon. Israel occupied part of southern Lebanon from 1982 to 2000.

Liberman maintained that Israel would not annex or build settlements in Lebanon but stressed:

[e]verything between the Litani [River] and Israel must be under the control of the IDF [Israeli military].

If Lebanon wont pay in territory, we havent done anything, Liberman said.

And just before the new year, on December 27, 2023, Tzivka Foghel, a member of Ben-Gvirs Jewish Power Party, told Israeli Kan radio that Hamas will pay the price, that we will control the area and bring Jewish settlements. Foghel clarified he doesnt just want to re-establish the settlements Israel withdrew from in 2005 but rather take over the entire northern section of the Gaza Strip.

Israeli lawmakers inflammatory rhetoric mirrors parts of Israeli society pushing for Israeli settler-colonists to return to the Gaza Strip and even colonize Lebanon. The December 1 issue of Israeli religious youth magazine, Small World, outlined five new Israeli settlements south of the Litani River in what would become occupied Lebanon as part of their proposal for the wars day-after plan.

In line with the politicians comments, the Israeli government recently allocated 4.3 million shekels ($1.2 million) in November to document Israeli settlements in Gaza, which were withdrawn in 2005. The project is to be handled by Israels Minister of Heritage, Amihai Eliyahu, who made headlines in recent months after calling for dropping nuclear bombs on Gaza.

During a meeting of hundreds of Israelis in the city of Ashdod in November, Yossi Dagan, head of the Samaria Regional Council, the government body overseeing settlements in the Israeli-occupied northern West Bank, encouraged participants to reach out to their government representatives in support of recolonizing Gaza. Dagan told the crowd,

I call from here to all the ministers of the government and to their head, the prime minister make your voices heard now, lift up your heads. Let it be known that you support the appeal to renew Jewish settlement throughout all of the Gaza Strip. The nation is waiting for you.

Dagan is currently leading the Returning Home movement, a coalition of 11 organizations made up of thousands seeking to annul the core part of the 2005 Disengagement Law prohibiting an Israeli civilian presence in Gaza. The initiative has already received government support. Israeli parliamentary members from Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahus Likud party submitted a bill to amend the Disengagement Law to grant Israelis freedom of movement in Gaza after the war. Likud members of parliament (or Knesset) Ariel Kellner and Tally Gotliv spoke at the Returning Home inaugural event, along with Jewish Power Party MK Limor Son Har-Melech.

In March 2023, the Israeli parliament annulled part of the law forbidding Israeli settlement in the northern West Bank after Dagan lobbied for the legislative change. Dagan was evacuated from one of the four settlements in the northern West Bank in 2005. He did not respond to MintPress News requests for an interview.

Israel occupied the Gaza Strip in 1967 during the Six-Day War and re-established the first settlement in 1970. In 2005, Israel evacuated around 9,000 Israeli settler-colonists from Gaza. Despite Israel dismantling the bloc of 17 settlements known as Gush Katif, human rights experts say the Gaza Strip remains occupied to this day.

The test under international law as to whether or not a territory is being occupied and by whom is effective control, Michael Lynk, who served as the United Nations special rapporteur on human rights in the occupied Palestinian territories from 2016 to 2022, told MintPress News.

Hamas was ruling Gaza internally, but because Israel had this comprehensive air, sea, and land blockade over Gaza and controlled who and what got into Gaza and who and what left Gaza, it is the occupying power, Lynk added.

Settler-colonist calls to return to Gaza began as soon as disengagement occurred, with government notions of reestablishing settlements in the Strip quietly materializing behind the scenes.

In 2018, reports revealed the Israeli military was shifting its offensive operations in Gaza from bombardment to carrying out missions that will enter Gaza and dissect it in two, and even occupy significant parts of it.

As a reminder, Israel has carried out several schemes throughout the decades to transfer Gazas population out of the Strip. Palestinian-Dutch analyst Mouin Rabbani wrote in Mondoweiss how, even before Israel occupied Gaza in 1967, it tried to push Palestinian refugees from Gaza to Libya and Iraq and, after its occupation, began encouraging emigration to the West Bank. In 1969, Israel attempted to send 60,000 Palestinians from the Gaza Strip to Paraguay with payment and the promise of citizenship. The plan was discontinued after two Palestinian transferees killed an Israeli embassy staff member in Asuncion.

After the Knesset vote last year to annul part of the 2005 Disengagement Law, Israeli lawmakers came out in support of a return to Gaza. MK Son Har-Melech urged Israelis not to fall into complacency.

We must not rest on our laurels or the euphoria of the moment, Son Har-Melech said. We must galvanize the return home to the region of Gush Katif, which was abandoned [in 2005] in an act of terrible folly and has become a nest of terror.

In a conversation with Israeli Channel 7, Minister of National Missions Orit Strock of the Religious Zionism party said, I believe that, at the end of the day, the sin of the disengagement will be reversed.

In response, the Israeli NGO Peace Now said, It is clear that in addition to the judicial coup, a messianic revolution is taking place. This government will inevitably destroy our country. They will also deepen the occupation, ignite the region, and reestablish a Jewish supremacist regime from the river to the sea.

As the trend to recolonize Gaza spreads, Lynk considers the option of resettlement in Gaza even with the states most right-wing government in its history out of the question, explaining to MintPress News that:

If the Americans have already said theyre not in favor of resettling Palestinians out of the Gaza Strip into Egypt or elsewhere in the world, you can be sure the Americans, as much as theyve protected Israel, would be against any idea of reestablishing Israeli settlements in Gaza.

While Netanyahu appears to have brushed off the notion of Israeli resettlement in Gaza, saying in December that its not a realistic goal, he has endorsed military control of the Strip. Gaza will be demilitarized, and there wont be any military threat threatening Israel from the Strip. For this to happen, control of the area is required, Netanyahu said.

That idea was reiterated by Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant this week when he unveiled his post-war plan for Gaza, which would see Israel keeping security control of the Strip with an Israeli-guided Palestinian body carrying out administrative responsibilities.

Mairav Zonszein, an analyst at the nonprofit the International Crisis Group, doesnt believe that top Israeli officials making the decisions on Gaza are aiming for resettlement. Still, she also doesnt rule out the possibility.

Thats not on their agenda, but that doesnt mean that it cant come to a point where that would be part of what we see, just because its becoming more of a war of attrition, Zonszein told MintPress News, emphasizing that while it might not be Netanyahus goal, he also hasnt condemned politicians advocating for resettlement.

The idea of recolonizing Gaza is also gaining momentum with the Israeli public. Images of Israeli soldiers waving Gush Katif settlement flags in Gaza have circulated online. Israeli singers Hanan Ben Ari and Narkis have sung about returning to the settlements when performing for soldiers.

A Channel 12 poll in November found that 44% of Israelis favor renewing settlement in Gaza. When asked what should happen with Gaza when the war is over, 32% answered, Israel should remain permanently and renew Jewish settlement.

Under the banner, A house on the beach is not a dream! Harei Zahav, an Israeli real estate firm known for building settlements in the West Bank, advertised building Gaza settlements, writing, We have begun clearing rubble and fending off squatters.

Yet since sparking controversy, the companys CEO, Zeev Epshtein, said it was simply a bad joke.

It was a sort of satirical idea, Epshtein told Haaretz. Were not building, and we have no intention of building. We want it to happen, but its the states decision. We have no influence on it.

Despite claiming it was satire, the social media blunder illustrates how Israelis are responding in this moment.

[Harei Zahav] name half a dozen reestablished and new #Israeli settlements, and show their approximate location throughout occupied #Gaza, Israeli human rights lawyer Itay Epshtain wrote on the social media platform X. While this is a media stunt, it captures a deep sentiment favoring territorial acquisition and colonization at the expanse [sic] of #Palestinians.

Other events discussing Gaza resettlement have occurred since Returning Homes November event. In December, during the Jewish festival of Hanukkah, a coalition of settler-colonist groups held the Practical Preparation for Gaza Settlement Conference in Tel Aviv. At the end of December, another group pushing for resettlement, Going Home Returning to Gush Katif, also held a discussion featuring leaders of the Nachala settler-colonist movement, Daniella Weiss and Zvi Elimelech Sharbaf.

Going Home Returning to Gush Katif declined to speak with MintPress News. Nachala is a prominent sponsor of the resettlement campaign, even releasing advertisements after the Tel Aviv conference stating, Gaza is the Land of Israel! Fight. Liberate. Settle, along with a hotline to register with the movement.

Nachala will hold a conference on January 28 in Jerusalem, presenting plans including maps and the various stages for colonizing Gaza. Nachala didnt respond to MintPress News requests for comment but told Channel 12 that thousands of Israelis have expressed interest in joining the movement.

The public demand for renewed settlement in the Gaza Strip is increasing. After the terrible massacre on October 7, there was a great call among the public that the victory of the war includes Jewish settlement in the Gaza Strip, Nachala representatives told Channel 12.

Zonszein explained how settlement and safety often go hand-in-hand in the Israeli perspective.

What Israel is doing in Gaza is very much in line with what its always done to occupied Palestinian territory, Zonszein said. That you need to put people on the ground settlers and soldiers in order to provide security has always been part of the Israeli understanding of how to do things.

So, as the weeks turn into months and war rages, Israels settler-colonist fantasy could very well manifest into reality.

Feature photo | A family flees the Al-Maghazi Refugee Camp with their belongings in the central Gaza Strip, on January 8, 2024. Majdi Fathi | NurPhoto via AP

Jessica Buxbaum is a Jerusalem-based journalist for MintPress News covering Palestine, Israel, and Syria. Her work has been featured in Middle East Eye and The New Arab and Gulf News.

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From Libya to Paraguay: Israel's Longstanding Goal of Expelling Palestinians From Gaza Inches Closer to Reality - Mintpress News

In its latest data for the whole of 2023 on revenues and spending released today, the Central Bank of Libya (CBL) revealed a continued increase in public spending without a matching in earnings.

Foreign exchange deficit With a deficit of US$ 9.9 billion, the CBL confirmed in its latest monthly statement that the states revenues from foreign exchange in 2023 reached $25.4 billion, while its uses reached $35.3 billion. The CBL warned of a depletion in foreign exchange reserves with an increase of US $5 billion on 2022.

LD revenues cover spending The CBL announced that state revenues will reach 125.9 billion dinars, and spending will reach 125.7 billion dinars, during 2023.

NOC spending It revealed that the National Oil Corporations (NOC) spending reached 17.5 billion dinars in 2023 from the Exceptional budget granted to it.

Continued rise in state sector salaries The CBL stated in its report that the salaries item in the 2023 budget rose to about 65 billion dinars, or by approximately 38% over the year 2022.

The report indicated that the salaries item recorded a significant increase from 2022, in which the salaries amounted to 47.1 billion dinars, and from the 33.1 billion dinars for 2021.

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CBL latest data reveals US$ 9.9 billion deficit in foreign currency public spending in 2023 - Libya Herald

A recent report by Oil Price pointed to the continued impact of Libyas political and security turmoil on the countrys oil sector. This comes despite a ramp-up in production to 1.2 million barrels per day and ambitious plans to further boost output.

The forced closure of the giant Sharara oil field by protestors highlights the obstacles still facing the revival of Libyas oil industry. The NOC declared force majeure on Sunday after demonstrations demanding better economic conditions, cutting 370,000 bpd.

At the crux of these protests is anger over poor economic conditions under Abdel Hamid Dbeibehs interim government and accusations of corruption. The oil blockade also relates to an unresolved political crisis over the equitable distribution of oil revenue among Libyas factions.

Rival administrations headed by Dbeibeh and Prime Minister Osama Hammad have attempted maneuvers to redirect oil income, including replacing the NOC chairman. But Dbeibehs disputed legitimacy, with his refusal to hand over power and conduct elections, has bred more divisions.

Dbeibehs government also faces protests by southern municipalities over economic policies and living standards. Popular grievances continue to impact operations, like at Sharara, despite urgent needs to grow production.

While progress was made in the gas sector, political instability severely constrains Libya realizing its oil output goals. Greater policy consensus and eased social tensions will be key to reviving production. Free and fair elections could unlock the political deadlocks and restore public trust.

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Dbeibeh government's crisis of legitimacy hampers Libya's oil revival - Libya Update

The chairman of Libyas National Oil Corporation (NOC), Farhat Bengdara, called upon executives of the Waha Oil Company to complete projects aimed at boosting oil output and maintaining current production levels.

Speaking at the Waha Oil Companys general assembly meeting held at NOCs headquarters in Tripoli on Wednesday, Bengdara emphasized the NOCs reliance on the firm to execute its strategic plan to raise national production volumes.

He stated that the NOC is highly dependent on Waha, given the substantial oil and gas reserves it holds, to carry out the corporations production expansion strategy. Bengdara also stressed the importance of enforcing safety regulations and ensuring a safe working environment at all sites.

The NOC chairman commended Waha management committee and employees for their efforts to sustain and increase outputs. However, he urged company officials to hasten the completion of major projects that will help maintain and grow production.

According to the NOC, Oasis achieved 97% of its targeted 2023 daily output of 290,000 barrels. The firm also drilled 28 new wells last year.

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Waha Oil Company Urged to Complete Production Increase Projects - Libya Update

Energy- Libyan force majeure

The oil market managed to settle higher last week with Brent up 2.23% over the first trading week of 2024. Middle East tensions and Libyan supply disruptions provided a boost to oil prices. Although with the oil balance fairly comfortable over the first half of 2024, significant upside is likely limited (assuming no escalation in the Middle East).

The more comfortable market is also reflected in the Saudis latest official selling prices (OSPs) for February loadings. Cuts were seen across the board with the flagship Arab Light into Asia cut by US$2/bbl MoM to leave it at US$1.50/bbl over the benchmark. The decrease was larger than the market was expecting. OSPs for all grades into Europe, the Med and the US were also cut for February.

After protests last week forced Libya to shut the Sharara oilfield (the largest in the country), Libyas National Oil Corporation has now declared force majeure at the field. The shutting of the oil field saw total Libyan oil output fall from around 1.2m b/d to 981k b/d on Friday. According to S&P Global Commodity Insights, the nearby El-Feel field which has a capacity of 70k b/d was also shut last week.

The latest positioning report shows that speculators reduced their net long in ICE Brent over the last reporting week by 29,532 lots to 169,843 lots as of last Tuesday. This move was predominantly driven by fresh shorts entering the market, with the gross short increasing by 28,578 lots over the week. Meanwhile, speculators also reduced their net long in NYMEX WTI by 35,869 lots over the period to 89,330 lots. This reduction was also predominantly driven by fresh shorts entering the market. However, given the increase we have seen in prices since Tuesday we could have seen some of these shorts covering already.

There is not a tremendous amount on the energy calendar this week. Apart from the usual weekly inventory reports, the EIA will publish its latest Short Term Energy Outlook, which will include its latest US oil production forecasts for 2024 and its first forecasts for 2025. Last month the EIA forecast that 2024 US output would grow by around 190 b/d to 13.11m b/d. US output has surprised to the upside in recent months, which has contributed to the broader weakness seen in the oil market. And then on Friday, China will release its first batch of trade data for December, which will include oil imports.

Iron ore extended declines for a second consecutive day on Friday on softer demand, with prices in Singapore down more than 1% last week. Iron ore was the best-performing industrial metal last year with prices rising by around $40 since early August amid optimism around Chinas recovery and support for the countrys property sector. Iron ore prices are set to remain volatile as the market continues to respond to any policy change from Beijing with any further recovery in prices dependent on economic stimulus from China. The downside risk for 2024 is if the stimulus effect is weaker than expected. A seasonal lull in demand has pushed iron ore port inventories in China to the highest level since the week ending September 1, 2023. Iron ore port inventories in China have seen seven consecutive weeks of increases, growing by 1.5mt over the last week to 116mt. Although, historically stocks are still low for this time of year.

Steel inventories at major Chinese steel mills fell to 12.4mt in late December, down 17.7% compared to mid-December, according to data from the China Iron and Steel Association (CISA). Crude steel production at major mills fell 14% from mid-December to 1.67mt/d in late December, as some major steelmakers, including Baowu Steel Group, Shougang Group, HBIS Group and CITIC Pacific Special Steel Group had conducted maintenance works on multiple production lines during the period.

Nigerias National Cocoa Association expects the domestic cocoa production for 2023/24 to fall to 240kt, compared to 270kt reported in the previous season. It is believed that heavier-than-usual rains have damaged cocoa trees and led to an outbreak of black pod disease, while also causing flooding in some of the cocoa-producing states.

The USDA released its weekly export sales report on Friday showing that grain shipments remained weak for the week ending 28 December. Weekly export sales of corn came in at 367.3kt, down from 1,253.3kt a week ago. For soybeans, the agency reported that US export sales fell to 202.2kt, lower than the 983.9kt a week ago. Similarly, US wheat export sales fell to 135.9kt; compared to 318kt a week ago.

The latest Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) data shows that money managers increased their net bearish bets in CBOT corn by 19,700 lots over the last week, leaving them with a net short position of 197,326 lots as of 2 January. Similarly, speculators increased their net short in CBOT wheat marginally by 718 lots to 60,277 lots as of last Tuesday. Meanwhile, money managers flipped from a net long of 4,767 lots in CBOT soybeans to a net short of 11,629 lots- a move which was driven largely by fresh shorts entering the market.

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The Commodities Feed: Libyan force majeure | Article | ING Think - ING Think