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As the Islamic State terror network loses territory across Iraq and Syria, analysts and experts assert that the terrorist outfit is increasingly capitalizing on the chaos of Libya, positioning the country as its point of resurgence.

The black-clad jihadist outfit is believed to be regrouping and recruiting in the rural regions south of the main east-to-west coastal highway and in the far-west town of Sabratha, which is poised just 60 miles from the Tunisian border, since being run out of its Libyan caliphate capital of Sirte late last year.

The majority of their fighting force comes from Tunisia, so Sabratha is also a growing center, prominent terrorism analyst Robert Young Pelton told Fox News. ISIS in Libya can regenerate quickly.

Robert Young Pelton in the city of Sirte as soldiers belonging to the "Bunyan Marsous" - Misrata militias who fought in Sirte to run ISIS out of its Libyan stronghold.

Col. Ahmed Almesmari, spokesperson for the self-styled Libyan National Army (LNA), told Fox News that ISIS first appeared in Libya at the end of 2013, even before its dominance in Iraq, borne out of Muslim Brotherhood-affiliated militias and Al Qaeda dissidents in Libyas eastern port city of Derna near the Egyptian border.

Col. Ahmed Almesmari, spokesman for the self-styled Libyan National Army (LNA).

But over time, ISIS has seemingly moved its operatives from the eastern Egyptian border and now appears to be clustering closer to the western Tunisian side. According to Almesmari, the terror faction has recently established camps around 25 miles east of the town of Bani Waleed, as well as south of Sirte.

Mohamed Ghasri, spokesperson and senior commander of the Mistrata-based al-Bunyam al-Marsous militia, which waged bloody battles with ISIS fighters in Sirte,statedlast week that they too have observed movements by the group south of Sirte, where they are trying to regroup and break through our forces lines in the south.

"Bunyan Marsous" Misrata militias who fought ISIS in Sirte concerned the terrorist outfit is resurging. (Robert Young Pelton)

Joseph Fallon, Islamic Extremism expert and U.K. Defense Forum research associate, concurred that ISIS has retreated south of Sirte to regroup and that its global threat cannot be underestimated.

Here, it can jeopardize western interests through guerrilla warfare sabotaging Libyas oil facilities and ports and through calculated use of terror to unleash a mass migration of people to destabilize neighboring countries and Europe, he said.

ISIS still maintains strong presence in Libya, capitalizing on the chaos that has engulfed the country since 2011.

A prominent portion of Libyas oil fields and reserves are located south of Sirte, along with major refineries. The country is home to Africas largest reserves, and its optimum quality of light crude is highly sought. Despite its ongoing political crisis, production in Libya last week climbed to around 885,000 barrels per day triple its production this time a year ago making the region ever more important to the global oil equation, and ISIS's presence there ever more troubling.

The terrorist army has, in Iraq and Syria, used oil fields as a means to fund its barbaric reign.

While more fighters are now expected to flow into Libya as the pressure on Iraq and Syria mounts, exactly how big the ISIS ranks in Libya are at present, remains largely contested.

ISIS DEFEATED, BUT NOT DESTROYED, AS TERROR GROUP STILL HOLDS STRATEGIC SWATHS OF IRAQ

In March, Marine Corps. Gen. Thomas Waldhauser, head of the U.S militarys Africa Command, told Pentagon reporters that theirfighter numbershad fallen below 200 from an estimated five to six thousand a year earlier. But a spokesperson for Africa Command told Fox News this week that their strength has been assessed to be around 500.

In sharp contrast, LNAs Almesmari said ISIS numbers are far larger around five to seven thousand people of different nationalities.

INSIDE AFGHANISTAN'S WAR HOSPITALS: CHILDREN LEFT FOR DEAD AMID ESCALATING VIOLENCE

The terrorist group, Pelton indicated, is well positioned to survive territorial losses such as Mosul, Raqqa and Sirte as its savvy propaganda promotion ensures ongoing recruitment.

ISIS is a transnational franchise that comes with funding, trainers and PR packages, Pelton noted. They seek out groups who will re-brand themselves and project the image of an international organization by standardizing logos, messaging and even design criteria for tweets and videos.

ISIS BODIES PILING UP IN LIBYAN MORGUE, REPORT SAYS

Sirte, Libya under ISIS occupation in 2016. (Robert Young Pelton)

Since the death of its longtime leader Muammar Qaddafi who was killed in 2011 following then-U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and the Obama administrations alleged maneuvers to back rebels in the quest for regime change Libya as a country remains in a protracted state of conflict and a breeding ground for violent militias to emerge. Its flushed with radical militias, weapons, human traffickers and two main although there are many competing factions.

July 2016: Haunting remains of what is left of Sirte, Libya. (International Committee of the Red Cross)

There is the U.S. and U.N.-supported Government of National Accord (GNA) led by Prime Minister Fayez Serraj in Tripoli, at odds with the LNA which is helmed by the Egypt-endorsed, Benghazi-based Gen. Khalifa Haftar. One U.S official affiliated with the GNA, who requested anonymity, told Fox News that the political and security vacuum that existed in the country post 2011 allowed ISIS to take root.

ISIS still poses a threat not just to Libya, the U.S official added, but to its neighbors, Europe and the United States.

Hollie McKay has been a FoxNews.com staff reporter since 2007. She has reported extensively from the Middle East on the rise and fall of terrorist groups such as ISIS in Iraq. Follow her on twitter at @holliesmckay

Link:
ISIS, squeezed out of Iraq and Syria, now 'regrouping' in Libya, analysts say - Fox News

ANALYSIS/OPINION:

Since the revolution in 2011, which was supported militarily by the United States, Libya has been ruled by divided governments. Today there are actually three governments attempting to govern simultaneously, one of which the Government of National Salvation I serve as prime minister. The lack of political unity has made our fight for stability and security against extremists that much harder.

Indeed, whatever hopes we have for democracy are at risk; representative government is a new concept here and it will not be legitimate in the eyes of our exhausted country unless we have functional institutions and can protect our people. To that end, it is crucial that America not forget us, but help us toward a political solution that reconciles our differences.

My first priority as prime minister has been to rid Libya of extremist elements, be it ISIS, Daesh, al Qaeda, Ansar al Sharia or whatever is the name of the day. As I have said on many occasions, fundamentalism and terrorism should be fought, as they betray the principles of Islam and the promise of a free and peaceful Libya. President Trump has recently said that he is prepared to support Libya in its fight against extremism and we welcome that and are ready to partner in that fight.

We have created and trained special teams at the Misrata air base who report directly to me and have been deployed on countless missions against the terrorists and fought bravely in the successful purge of Daesh from Sirte. We have also established the Counterterrorsim Service (CTS) which has exchanged important and crucial information and data with the U.S. and European intelligence agencies.

But as we fight, we must also renew our efforts to bring together a national unity government. Here, the international community has failed us. Immediately following the revolution, the U.S. and our European friends were cheered in the public squares of our towns and villages. But the task of building a functioning pluralistic government for people who suffered under a brutal dictatorship for generations was gravely underestimated.

The international community at that time faced its own problems of slow growth and political uncertainty and didnt engage Libya with the strong financial, political, and military support we needed.

The chaos that ensued has implications beyond our borders, best illustrated by the immigration crisis of thousands from other countries beset by conflict and poverty transiting through Libya to Europe. Our inability to prevent this transit is simply due to our lack of a single unified and strong central government. The internal Libyan problem has become an international nightmare for Europe.

For these reasons, I am prepared to support international efforts to help us bring together a national unity government that takes into consideration the principles behind the revolution and brings fairness and opportunities for all regions and societal segments of our great country.

While this is no easy task, it must be done for the alternative of further chaos and fighting can no longer be tolerated or allowed. I do not desire or seek a role in this unity government, but rather to encourage it and to be a part of a new generation of Libyan leadership that is drawn from and returns to ordinary citizen life.

My caution to the U.S. and our other friends is that the unity solution cannot be perceived as a government imposed on us by the outside. Libya needs the support of indigenous and impartial broad-based groups such as the Libyan Political Agreement Committee that brings together leaders from all aspects of our society.

The LPA supports no political party or candidate but seeks to bring people together in common cause. We must be reminded that democracy is not simply an election; it needs to be nurtured by non-governmental organizations that work on behalf of Libya as well as by an independent press, an independent judiciary and civilian control over a national military.

Indeed, these features are the building blocks of a stable, functional, self-sufficient democracy. Unity will allow us at last to develop a national economic strategy that touches all segments of the population. One of my first tasks as prime minister was to establish the Strategic Projects Committee. This consisted of leaders from many industry sectors though out the whole of Libya.

This committee is charged with outlining and describing the immediate and necessary commercial opportunities needed to be exploited on urgent basis such as power generation, road and bridge repair, health and education infrastructure rebuilds and more. But we cannot encourage it, oversee it, finance it with a fragmented government. Whats more we need a single sovereign nation to repatriate much of our frozen and stolen financial resources and to attract capital investments, especially from the U.S.

Mr. Trump was right to focus on security as his top priority in Libya; terrorism and the ideas that inspire it are a transnational phenomenon. But we cant merely kill our way through the problem. We need to present a credible alternative to the nihilism of extremists, namely, a successful experiment in governance that can bring more and more people into the fold and eliminate the grievances that terrorists prey on. Keeping Libya on the U.S. dashboard has the potential to give democracy a beachhead in a crucial region.

Khalifa Ghwell is the prime minister of Libya.

Read more from the original source:
Keeping Libya on the US dashboard - Washington Times

The Libyan eastern military governor Abdelraziq Al-Nathori was accused by Abdelbasit Al-Saiti of detaining his brother Rashid Al-Saiti - the deputy head of the civil registry authority - with no rightful executions.

Bawabet Al-Wasat website cited Al-Saiti as saying that his brother went to meet with Al-Nathori along with his chauffeur and one of the authority's employees.

"All were surprised that Rashid did not depart from that meeting and when they asked for him, the guards said the military governor ordered his arrest." The website added.

Al-Saiti also said that they don't know why his brother was arrested; whether because of political, tribal or criminal reasons, saying that if the reasons were criminal, he was supposed to be arrested in a legal way with a prior investigation.

"What happened is not justifiable." Al-Saiti added.

He also explained that there are tribal disputes between his tribe and Al-Nathori's one that go three years back, adding that this could be the reason why his brother was arrested.

"I call on Khalifa Haftar to interfere and see the issue of my brother. These irresponsible behaviors by certain individuals from the army could lit up a conflict among tribes." Al-Sait indicated.

An armed group at Labreg airport in eastern Al-Bayda city city in east Libya last week while he was on his way back from a business trip from Tripoli.

He was later released without revealing why he was detained in the first place.

Link:
East Libya military governor detaining deputy head of civil registry authority - The Libya Observer

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See the rest here:
Emmanuel Macron says France will set up refugee 'hotspots' in Libya - The Independent

The media is now filled with headlines about North Koreas missile test on Friday, which demonstrated that its ICBMs may be able to reach the continental U.S. What isntmentioned in any of these stories ishow we got to this point in particular, what Dan Coats, President Donald Trumps Director of National Intelligence,explained last weekat the Aspen Security Forum.

North Koreas 33-year-old dictator Kim Jong-un is not crazy, said Coats. In fact, he has some rationale backing his actions regarding the countrys nuclear weapons. That rationale is the waythe U.S. has demonstrated that North Korea must keep themto ensure survival for his regime, survival for his country.

Kim, according to Coats, has watched, I think, what has happened around the world relative to nations that possess nuclear capabilities and the leverage they have and seen that having the nuclear card in your pocket results in a lot of deterrence capability. In particular, The lessons that we learned out of Libya giving up its nukes is, unfortunately: If you had nukes, never give them up. If you dont have them, get them.

This is, of course, blindingly obvious and has been since the U.S. helped oust longtime Libyan dictator Muammar Gaddafis regime in 2011. But U.S. officials have rarely if ever acknowledged this reality. Heres the timeline:

In December 2003, Libya announced that it would surrenderits biological and chemical weapons stockpiles, as well as its rudimentary nuclear weapons program.

In celebrating Libyas decision, President George W. Bush declared that the rest of the world should take away the message that leaders who abandon the pursuit of chemical, biological and nuclear weapons, and the means to deliver them, will find an open path to better relations with the United States and other free nations. Paula DeSutter, Bushs Assistant Secretary of State for Verification and Compliance, explained that we want Libya to be a model for other countries.

In 2011, the U.S. and NATO conducted a bombing campaign to assist Libyan rebels in overthrowing the Gaddafi government. Gaddafi himself was captured by one rebel faction, who apparently sodomized him with a bayonet and then killed him.

You would definitely expect this to getthe attention of North Koreas ruling clique especially given that Iraq had also disarmed and then been invaded, with its dictator executed by a howling mob.

And, indeed, North Korea said this explicitly at the time. Its foreign ministry stated, The Libyan crisis is teaching the international community a grave lesson, which was that thedeal to rid Libya of weapons of mass destruction had been an invasion tactic to disarm the country.

Yet the Obama administration shamelessly denied this. Areporter told State Department spokesperson Mark Toner that North Koreans are looking at this and it didnt give them a lot of incentive to give up their nuclear weapons. Toner replied that where [Libya is]at today has absolutely no connection with them renouncing their nuclear program and nuclear weapons.

Moreover, North Koreans and other countries can read, and so understand what Americas foreign policy elite has repeatedly explained why we want small countries to disarm. Its not because we fear that they will use WMD in a first strike onus, since nationslike North Korea understand that would immediately lead to their obliteration. Instead, our mandarins explicitly say the problem is that unconventional weapons help small countries deter us from attacking them.

There are many examples. For instance, in a 2001 memo, then-Secretary of DefenseDonald Rumsfeld stated:

Several of these [small enemy nations] are intensely hostile to the United States and are arming to deter us from bringing our conventional or nuclear power to bear in a regional crisis.

[U]niversally available [WMD] technologies can be used to create asymmetric responsesthat cannot defeat our forces, but can deny access to critical areas in Europe, the Middle East, and Asiaasymmetric approaches can limit our ability to apply military power.

The think tank Project for a New American Century, a neoconservative pressure group that had a heavy influence on George W. Bushs administration, made the same point in an influential paper called Rebuilding Americas Defenses:

The United States also must counteract the effects of the proliferation of ballistic missiles and weapons of mass destruction that may soon allow lesser states to deter U.S. military actionby threatening U.S. allies and the American homeland itself. Of all the new and current missions for U.S. armed forces, this must have priority.

In the post-Cold War era, America and its allies, rather than the Soviet Union, have become the primary objects of deterrence andit is states like Iraq, Iran and North Korea who most wish to develop deterrent capabilities.

In fact, even Dan Coats himself has said this, in a 2008 op-ed he co-wrote. An Islamic Republic of Iran with nuclear weapons capability would be strategically untenable, Coats said, because it would possessa deterrent against U.S. attack. And to prevent Iran from acquiring the ability to deter us, he explained, we might have to attack them.

Video of Coats speaking and his full remarks are below:

Source: The Aspen Institute

DAN COATS: It has become a potential existential threat to the United States and it is of great concern.

LESTER HOLT: And in terms of the number of options available publicly we know that there arent a lot of great options there, and a lot of it is trying to see into Kim Jong-uns head and thats I suspect that most difficult kind of intelligence trying to predict someones behavior.

COATS: Well, hes demonstrated behavior publicly that really raises some questions about who he is and how he thinks and how he acts, what his behavior is, but our assessment has come has pretty much resulted in the fact that while hes a very unusual type of person, hes not crazy. And there is some rationale backing his actions which are survival, survival for his regime, survival for his country, and he has watched I think what has happened around the world relative to nations that possess nuclear capabilities and the leverage they have and seen that having the nuclear card in your pocket results in a lot of deterrence capability. The lessons that we learned out of Libya giving up its nukes and Ukraine giving up its nukes is unfortunately if you had nukes, never give them up. If you dont have them, get them, and we see a lot of nations now thinking about how do we get them and none more persistent than North Korea

Top photo: North Korean leader Kim Jong-un inspects troops of Unit 534 of the Korean Peoples Army on Jan. 12, 2014.

More here:
Trump Intel Chief: North Korea Learned From Libya War to Never Give Up Nukes - The Intercept