While a feud is raging between General Khalifa Haftar representing the parliament of Tobrouk, in the east, which is militarily and diplomatically supported by Egypt and Fayez al-Serraj, the head of the government of Tripoli, recognized by the international community, the population of Libya is missing the peaceful era of Qaddafi. True he was a dictator, but for the Libyans he kept the country stable and provided his people with all their needs and more, whereas, after his demise, Libyaslid into chaos.
As of today, no one believes that the present warring lords will lay down arms and form a government because their political egos are more important than the well-being of the country. A proof of this is they are not trying to talk to each other about a possible solution for the violent conflict which is destroying more and more of the country, causing heavy casualties and increasing instability in Libya and in the region.
New hope, new guide
Nevertheless, there is a flicker of hope appearing on the horizon that might, in the long run, bring relief and peace. Seif al-Islam, son of late Libyan dictator, Muammar Qaddafi, was recently freed by the Zintan militia. The grouphad arrested Seif al-Islam five years ago as he was trying to join his brother Saadi in Niger.
Seif al-Islam is no ordinary person, in the late years of his fathers reign he was involved in running the country. He definitely had his own vision of a new Libya, but would not contest his fathers rule, out of respect and fear, he wanted to bring incremental change to a country that is very patriarchal, tribal and deeply conservative. However, the Arab Spring of 2011 compromised his dream. During the uprising, galvanized by revolutionary rhetoric and drive, people saw in him but a mirror image of his brutal and megalomaniac father, no less and no more. Now that the Arab Spring is over, not to say dead, Libyans see him as the possible would-be architect of a new Libya, especially in the light of the ongoing political power struggle in the country.
In view of the dormant and unspoken admiration of the rank and file for him, he will, probably, with the help of the Zintan tribe and its militia quickly gain support among the people of Libya and be enthroned as the next guide, without firing a single bullet or twisting any arms, whatsoever. He enjoys a large appeal among the strong tribes of the country and he possesses the charisma of his father without his brutality and eccentricity.
Fearing his re-emergence as a strong player in any future political scenario for the country, the al-Serraj government of Tripoli condemned him to a death sentence on July 2015, while the Tobrouk parliament granted him amnesty and, consequently, the Zintan militia freed him within the framework of this amnesty, according to Colonel Ajmi al-Atiri of Zintan.
Will the West throw its support behind Seif al-Islam?
Following the downfall of Qaddafi and the arrest of Seif al-Islam by the Zintan Tribe, the International Criminal Court called on the latter to hand him overto be tried fairly for his role in quelling the uprising in 2011. However, the militia refused the request and kept the person in question in its prison, probably, for two reasons: firstly, his future political importance in the country and, secondly, his wealth worth billions of dollars hidden in the country among his tribesmen and maybe abroad.
The West wants Libya stabilized and ruled by a strong government and a charismatic leader. Both of the current protagonists do not have what it takes to lead Libya into a peaceful, democratic and prosperous future. Haftar is advanced in age and lacks political experience and al-Serraj is a puppet of the Islamist factions and enjoys no consensus, whatsoever among Libyans. In the light of this, Seif al-Isalm stands out as the man for the future of the country. He is young, 44 years old, well-educated, has political experience and can muster a large following within the country.
So the choice of the West can only fall on him, very much like Libyans do.
Seif al-Islam can, undoubtedly, bring his own people together, provide a strong government capable of disarming the militias and achieving much-needed stability and security, inject life into the faltering economy and build, incrementally, a democratic Libya open to Libyans and to the world.
A stable Libya is a must
Today, the instability of Libya is a source of worry for North Africa, Europe and the world at large. Lybia is used by economic migrants coming from poor African countries as a stepping stone to go to Europe for better prospects. But, the problem is that not all the migrants are looking for better living conditions in the European Eldorado, among them there are people with criminal inclinations, as well as, terrorists in the form of sleeping cells.
The militias in power in Libya are allowing migrants in and out of the country for a fee, unaware of the outcome of such a behavior on the stability in the Mediterranean and elsewhere. The instability that resulted from the fall of Qaddafis rule has already brought the plague of ISIS to the country which has taken Libyans many months with many casualties to end. The country in its failed status today is an easy prey to religious violence and terrorism and there are still many terrorists waiting in the dark in the Sahara desert for the propitious moment to strike at Europe or the Americas or elsewhere.
A stable Libya requires a charismatic leader, a strong army able to control the whole country, a viable and potent police force, an elected parliament and a democratic state. Will Seif al-Islam be able to deliver all of this to Libyans and the rest of the world or will he just be a mirror image of his brutal father? Only time will show.
Read more here:
Is Saif al-Islam Waiting to Re-conquer Libya? - International Policy Digest (press release) (blog)