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The new year seems to have brought one piece of bad news after another for Libya, threatening to mark a new phase in the countrys endless slide into chaos. Hopes that last years defeat of the Islamic State in its self-proclaimed emirate in Sirte would usher in a period of relative calm have been dashed, as fighting has escalated recently in four different parts of the country.

The oil crescent east of Sirte, where 60 percent of Libyas oil production transits, in March twice changed hands between the anti-Islamist Libyan National Army (LNA) of Field Marshal Khalifa Haftar a former Qaddafi-era officer who turned against the dictator and whose forces currently dominate the east and the U.N.-backed Presidency Council, a collective head of state that sits in the capital of Tripoli, where militias nominally loyal to the council fight against rival groups and increasingly among themselves. In the south, Haftars LNA has repeatedly clashed with armed groups from the coastal city of Misrata. And in the east, since 2014, fighting between the LNA and local Islamist Shura Councils in Benghazi and in Derna has never really ended.

Since 2014, the country has been split between rival governments: one in the east and two in Tripoli. In May of that year, then-Gen. Haftar started Operation Dignity, an anti-Islamist insurgency that initially focused on the eastern city of Benghazi. A month later, a coalition of militias from cities in western Libya formed Libya Dawn and conquered Tripoli. The conflict between the forces that defeated Muammar al-Qaddafi has since devolved into a bitter struggle for power, resources, and control of the countrys sprawling security sector.

In December 2015, the mediation of the U.N. mission in Libya (UNSMIL) led to the signing of the Libyan Political Agreement, which aimed to form a national unity government, by rival members of parliament from eastern and western Libya. But while UNSMIL is tasked with negotiating the implementation of the agreement, it is now effectively headless. The mandate of the current U.N. special representative for Libya, Martin Kobler, came to an end this month, and he lost the trust of key players in Libya long ago. U.N. Secretary-General Antnio Guterress attempts to appoint former Palestinian Prime Minister Salam Fayyad as his special representative came up against an 11th-hour veto from U.S. President Donald Trumps administration.

Rival negotiating tracks by regional powers, particularly Egypt and Algeria, have also failed to produce any breakthrough. As a result, most channels of communication between eastern and western Libya have collapsed.

Russia is becoming increasingly involved, trying to fill the void left by the collapse of the U.N. track and the disinterest of both the Trump administration and the Europeans. It is unclear what Moscow really wants in Libya, but it seems to be pursuing a strategy that acknowledges the de facto partition of the country, promising both political and military support for Haftars battle in the east while signing contracts for oil and discussing business opportunities in commodities trading and future construction projects with the institutions in Tripoli. While there are reports that Russian special forces may be helping Haftar, there is still no evidence of decisive Russian military support for the LNA, and it is fair to say that the Kremlin is diversifying its political investment in the country by talking to all sides.

Russias increasing political backing and the anti-Islamist winds blowing in Washington have strengthened Haftars belief that there is no point in negotiating a political solution with the forces in western Libya. Despite heavy pressure from his Egyptian patrons, he refused to even meet the head of the Presidency Council, Prime Minister Fayez al-Sarraj, in Cairo on Feb. 14 to discuss a road map for negotiations. He has instead rededicated himself to his main goal of fighting extremism by stepping up pressure on Misratan forces in the south and the district of Jufra and by announcing an imminent albeit unlikely liberation of Tripoli.

Western Libya, meanwhile, is at risk of ever greater fragmentation. The Presidency Council has effectively been reduced to two of its originally nine members Sarraj and his deputy, Ahmed Maiteeq and lacks any real control of dynamics on the ground. The capital is dominated by a syndicate of militias that are now fighting against armed groups loyal to a rival government. Outside of Tripoli, a similar archipelago of local armed groups controls events on the ground.

Given the lack of desire to compromise in the east and lack of credible interlocutors in the west, a political settlement reuniting the country will likely prove elusive. If Libya and the international community hope to avoid a bloody new chapter in the civil war, they should focus on three tracks to be pursued in the short term, in parallel to the bigger-picture negotiations.

First, Libya needs a de-conflicting mechanism to avoid escalation. If the U.N. envoy cannot do it, someone else in the West should. What better opportunity for Britain to show its continued relevance after Brexit than this? Or why not the French foreign minister, who could beef up his legacy just weeks before leaving office? This should only be a temporary replacement for a fully functioning U.N. mission capable of working on reconciliation, local cease-fires, and monitoring human rights violations. Both a temporary negotiator and the U.N. could work on a number of confidence-building measures, such as establishing permanent channels of communication, liberating prisoners, reopening roads, and sharing humanitarian aid.

Second, the country needs what economist Hala Bugaighis calls a Libyan Economic Agreement on how to peacefully share its oil wealth. Libya sits on Africas biggest hydrocarbon reserves: In the run-up to the 2011 war, it produced 1.6 million barrels per day and accumulated more than $100 billion in reserves a considerable amount for a population of 6 million. Much of the fighting in the last few years has revolved around oil installations or smuggling hubs. Negotiating a new social contract may take some time, but in the meantime, two measures would represent a good start: The government in Tripoli should strengthen financial support for all of Libyas municipalities, including areas controlled by Haftar, and oil installations should be placed under the control of the independent National Oil Corporation in Tripoli, with attempts to establish parallel economic institutions punished by international sanctions.

Finally, Tripoli must be the heart of international efforts. The most pressing need is a plan to free the city of all heavy weapons, pushing militias to stock them outside of civilian-populated areas. This is an important condition to allow the Libyan government to operate and to facilitate international assistance.

These tasks are very difficult. The alternative, however, is a new escalation that would destroy what little is left of Libyas institutions and create the conditions for the re-emergence of jihadi groups.

It will take a heavyweight like the United States to push Libya toward peace. Washington, with its enormous soft and hard power, could pressure all sides into an agreement while at the same time dissuading external actors from intervening in the country. The big question is whether the will exists in the Trump administration to get involved in Libya. The National Security Council, in reviewing U.S. policy in different areas, should consider the levers that the United States has in Libya and the importance of the country in countering terrorism and instability.

During the most recent Republican administration, under President George W. Bush, the United States pursued a pragmatic policy in Libya that succeeded in peacefully eliminating the countrys stockpiles of weapons of mass destruction. It is hard to believe that Trump will be able to duplicate that model. Without swift international action, however, Libya appears poised for another round of violence. It may well be that we will look back at this moment in Libya and say that the medicine was there but no doctor had the courage to use it.

Photo credit: John Moore/Getty Images

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Libya Can't Save Itself - Foreign Policy (blog)

Libya Herald

Moscow frets about Libya's failing security Libya Herald The foreign ministry in Moscow said it continued to watch Libya closely. Unfortunately, it said, we have to state that the situation in the country is not improving. Lately, some events have occurred that cannot be described in any other way but ...

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Moscow frets about Libya's failing security - Libya Herald

Not less than 130 underage Nigerian girls trafficked to Mali and Burkina Faso are still trapped in the two countries.

Not less than 130 underage Nigerian girls trafficked to Mali and Burkina Faso are still trapped

According to the federal government, 90 of the girls are in Burkina Faso while the remaining 40 are in Mali.

Mrs. Abike Dabiri-Erewa, the Senior Special Assistant to the President on Foreign Affairs and Diaspora, who disclosed the situation The Punch, described it as requiring urgent attention.

READ ALSO: Allah's name appears mysteriously on pawpaw tree in Lagos (photos,video)

She said the Nigerian embassies in the two countries were currently working to see how to rescue the underage girls.

Naij.com gathered that Dabiri-Erewa also reiterated her warning to Nigerians to avoid Libya following a death penalty awaiting illegal migrants in that country.

The presidential aide had recently said her office would be working with the National Commission for Refugees, Migrants and Internally Displaced Persons to sensitise Nigerians on the need to avoid some countries.

Two weeks after 171 Nigerians voluntarily returned home from Libya 155 others followed suit on Thursday, March 23, aboard a chartered Nouvel Air aircraft with registration number TS-1NB.

Like the initial group which returned on March 7 after being stranded in Libya while enroute Europe, the returnees were brought back by the International Organisation for Migration (IOM) and the Nigerian Embassy in Libya.

READ ALSO: EFCC chair: Buhari to overrule DSS report, stick with Magu

They were received at the Hajj Camp area of the airport by officers of the Nigerian Immigration Service (NIS) , the National Agency for the Protection of Trafficking in Persons (NAPTIP) and the Police.

Meanwhile, Nigerians have continued to react to the arrival of President Buhari.

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As 155 Nigerians return from Libya, 130 underaged girls are trapped in Mali and Burkina Faso FG - NAIJ.COM

By Tharanga Yakupitiyage

UNITED NATIONS, Mar 23 2017 (IPS) - A delegation of Libyan tribal leaders and women leaders has called on the UN to take a balanced approach to the Libyan peace process.

The delegation from the National Movement for Libya (NML) met with UN officials and U.S. government representatives while visiting New York and Washington D.C. to discuss the UN-led peace process in Libya.

We dont have a state, we dont really have a government to control everything. The whole institution has collapsed after 2011, said Libya Institute for Advanced Studies Head of the Mediation Department Ali Masoud to IPS.

The only thing to help people find a solution and help peace-building is the tribal leaders or community leaders, he continued.

Despite a UN-brokered peace deal known as the Libyan Political Agreement (LPA) in 2015, which established the internationally-backed unity government headed by Fayez al-Sarraj, armed factions have continued to battle for control over the oil-rich nation.

Most recently, pro-unity government armed forces expanded their control in the capital of Tripoli, fighting rival militias including groups allied with former Prime Minister Khalifa Ghweli.

Ghweli was ousted from power when al-Sarrajs Government of National Accord (GNA) took office and has refused to recognize the new administration, instead forming his own Government of National Salvation (GNS).

Khalifa Haftar, who leads troops for a third rival government in the Eastern region of the country, also opposes the UN-backed GNA but has focused on battling Islamist militias including the al-Qaeda-linked Ansar Al-Sharia and Islamic State (ISIS). His Libyan National Army (LNA) recently recaptured major oil ports from militias.

The NML was formed to address the countrys complex conflicts and engage in reconciliation efforts. However, community leaders have been left out of the peace process.

[The UN] has carried on with the political track with politicians who are really not representative of the Libyan people, Masoud told IPS.

They failed to start the tribal track which is really very important to engage tribes in Libya where they feel they own this political agreement and own the [dialogue] process, he continued, adding that the dialogues stopped inviting tribal leaders as they were hosted outside of Libya.

Another NML representative Nour Elayoun Mohamed Abdul Ati Alobeidi highlighted the role that women have played in mediation, pointing to a case in the southern Libyan town of Ubari where Tuareg and Tebu tribes have clashed.

In that war, men tried to mediate to stop the fire, but it was only when women decided to build a mobile tent in the middle of the shootingonly then the war stopped immediately because of those brave women who initiated this even though it was risky but they werent scared because they wanted the war to stop, she told IPS.

Alobeidi said that tent was established to bring together the two sides to have a dialogue.

This led both sides of women to understand that their pain is the same. And those women, the same women who were against each other, helped in bringing peace back to the Ubari area, she continued.

Masoud and Alobeidi called on the inclusion of community leaders to create a National Charter that represents and ensures the rights of all Libyans.

There is no national charter, no constitution, no surveys to understand what Libyan people demand, what they would like exactly, and what kind of a system they hope to have after this era of dictatorship, Masoud told IPS.

They believe that creating a National Charter is essential before holding elections in order to help unite Libyans.

They also called on the international community to support inclusive tribal and political tracks that focus on building institutions rather than on one person or politician.

All these tracks should feed each other, and when a national agreement is reached, then we will shrink the power of these politiciansthey will have no space for violence, only the vision of Libyans that they should rely on, Masoud told IPS.

The NML consists of tribal groups that both supported and opposed Gaddafi during the 2011 revolution. The delegation of tribal and women leaders was sponsored by the Network for Religious and Traditional Peacemakers and the Libya Institute for Advanced Studies, with the support of Finn Church Aid.

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Women and Tribal Leaders Call for Balanced Libyan Peace Process - ReliefWeb

On Friday, March 17, hundreds of Libyans came into Tripolis Martyrs Square. They wanted to make a simple statement: end the rule of militias. Since the NATO war of 2011, Libya has been ruled by a patchwork of rival heavily armed gangs that have sown terror in the population. Gunfights are common as had been experienced these past ten days across Tripoli. The Rixos Hotel which had served as the governments building faced heavy shelling, with tanks and snipers racing to destroy this beautiful city. Burning cars blocked roads, as children stayed home from school and shops were shuttered. The protesters came to say enough. They wanted the fighting to end. It was inevitable that gunfire would scatter them into nearby buildings, Libyan flags fluttering above them in the breeze. These militias now entrenched across the country are not going to be easy to dismantle.

Frustrated Libyans in Tripoli point across the country towards the eastern city of Benghazi and vest their hopes in General Khalifa Haftar. He can save us, said an old friend who has weathered the violence and chaos since NATOs war of 2011. It meant little to this man that General Haftar had lived for twenty years in the shadow of the CIAs offices in Virginia after he had defected from the Libyan Army. It meant even less that he had arrived in Benghazi during the early days of the 2011 war in Libya and that he had sought leadership of the rag-tag army backed by NATO. My friend is an old socialist with fond memories of the high point of the Qaddafi era. Haftar, whom Qaddafi once called a son, had betrayed his leader in the aftermath of Libyas defeat in the 1987 Toyota War against Chad and defected to the United States. But this meant nothing. Times are different now. Even Haftar, the leader of the self-styled Libyan National Army (LNA), has come to promise hope against the archipelago of militias. Haftar hastily went on television right after the gunfire at Martyrs Square. Your armed forces will not abandon you, he said ceremoniously, and we will be by your side until Tripoli is returned to the homeland.

Over the past few years, Haftar ensconced in Benghazi has fashioned himself as a strongman, a military man with no patience for either the al-Qaeda linked Ansar al-Sharia or the Muslim Brotherhood. Ignored by the United States his early patron Haftar has turned to Egypt, the United Arab Emirates and Russia for support. There was room there for eager ears, since those powers are partial to Haftars self-image as the strongman. Haftar does not look back to the secular nationalism of Gamel Abdul Nasser for inspiration, but resembles the farcical patriotism of Abdel Fattah el-Sisi. Russia looks fondly on both these men Haftar and Sisi for both promise military-style stability that would crush any whiff of political Islam.

But for all Haftars braggadocio, it is important to recognize that his LNA has had only mixed results in the battlefield. In May 2014, Haftars LNA opened up a war against the various extremist groups in Benghazi. The battle was called Operation Karama (Dignity), a sly allusion to the early days of the Arab Spring when dignity was the cry on the lips of the protestors. But Operation Karama, despite the LNAs superior firepower (including Egyptian and Emirati fighter jets) has not been able to trounce the Revolutionary Shura Council of Benghazi (whose main component is the al-Qaeda backed Ansar al-Sharia). The day after last Fridays fracas in Tripoli, the LNA was able finally to oust the Shura Council fighters from the southwest of Benghazi. The Shura Councils fighters still hold key northern parts of the city namely the areas of al-Sabri and Souq al-Hout not far from Benghazis port. It will not be easy for the LNA to remove the Shura Council from these congested areas without a great many civilian casualties.

Not far from Benghazi, along Libyas coastline, a battle has raged over the oil installations that are key to the wealth of this oil-rich country. Over the past few years, thousands of fighters in the Petroleum Facilities Guard have held the oil terminals in Ras Lanuf, Sidra and Zueitina. They were led by Ibrahim Jadran, a former car thief who has now styled himself as a leader of the secessionist movement for eastern Libyan (called Cyrenaica after its old Roman name). But Jadrans aims are more prosaic. He has tried to sell the oil by himself, and has run afoul of the United States and of the UN-recognized government that sits in Tripoli. Haftars LNA pushed Jadrans forces out of these key positions in September last year. It was this thrust along the coastline that earned Haftars LNA a great deal of respect in the country, and much delight in Cairo and in Abu Dhabi.

Saudi Arabia arrived on the scene to block the ambitions of Haftar and his backers. The Kingdom had its own proxies, mainly refracted through the repellent Grand Mufti of Tripoli, Sadeq al-Ghariani. It was the Saudi-backed groups that created the Benghazi Defense Brigade militia in June of 2016 an extremist group set up to fight Haftars LNA and provide space for the Kingdom to assert itself in Libyas dangerous battlefields. ISIS fighters, expelled from the city of Sirte, are now fighting alongside the Shura Council in their northern redoubts of Benghazi, while Shura Council fighters have joined the Benghazi Defense Brigade and some militias from the western town of Misrata both groups in and outside Benghazi battling Haftars LNA. These Brigades have taken refuge in the district of Jufra, south of the oil installations, lashed by dust storms that pay no heed to the petroleum beneath the desert. Saudi Arabias proxies have blocked the LNA advance to the southern city of Sabha and provided problems in the oil areas. For ten days in March, the Benghazi Defense Brigades seized the oil installations from Haftar. But Haftars forces strengthened by air cover took them back on March 13. Little gain for Saudi Arabia in this feint. But this battle is far from over.

Enter the Russians.

Haftar dashed off to see the Russians about weaponry and assistance. He has fair-weather friends amongst the Europeans. Occasionally the Italians have provided Haftar with intelligence, but their allegiance remains with the UN-backed government that appears more and more like a shadow of its expectations. The Russians were pleased to receive Haftar aboard their aircraft carrier Admiral Kuznetsov in January. From the ship, Haftar spoke to the Russian defense minister Sergey Shoygu. Haftar had been in Moscow last November, when it was reported that he had discussed arms deals. It was during the conversation with Shoygu that Haftar was able to get Russian confirmation for a $2 billion arms deal. These weapons will give the LNA much greater firepower than possessed by the Shura Council, the Benghazi Defense Brigades and other militia groups.

Russia has said repeatedly that it wants to see a strong power emerge in Libya. This has been taken to mean that they would like to see Haftar establish a Sisi-type state in the country. Last December, Russias Deputy Foreign Minister Gennady Gatilov said, We believe that the Libyans have to find a compromise on Haftars participation in the new Libyan leadership. At that time the UNs envoy to Libya Martin Kobler called upon UN member states not to strike separate deals with parts of the Libyan political establishment behind the back of other influential players. Everyone knew that Kobler meant the Russians and Haftar. But by February Kobler was singing a different tune. The single most important topic is the construction of a Libyan united army with a clear chain of command, where General Haftar must have a role, he told Reuters. It appears that Haftar has now arrived.

Strikingly, reports now come that the Russians have deployed forces into Egypt with bases established in Sidi Barrani (about 60 miles from the Egyptian-Libyan border) and Marsa Matruh both fabled sites of battles between the Allies and the Axis during World War II. The Egyptians have, of course, officially denied the Russian presence, but well-informed people say that it is likely to be true. Last October, Russian and Egyptian forces began to conduct joint military exercises, and Russian military officials have indicated that they would like to have access to a base in Egypt. This suggests that it might not be impossible that Russian forces are inside Egypt, ready to assist Hafter if the need arises.

A dent in Haftars fortunes came this week when video was released of LNA fighters exhuming the bodies of their adversaries from the Benghazi Defense Brigades. These gory videos show the LNA fighters mutilating the bodies not only of fighters, but also of civilians. Denunciations by the LNA hierarchy could not erase the images of brutality. Hard to position oneself as the savior of the nation if this is the caliber of the soldiers.

The UNs Martin Kobler warned of a dangerous escalation in Libya. That phrase sounds shopworn. It has been used so often. There is no end to the war. Like a moving kaleidoscope the fighters change sides. Their loyalties are hard to read. It is even harder to understand the suffering of the people. At NATO headquarters they still smirk about their successful war in Libya. It is a war that broke this country.

Disclaimer:The views expressed here are the author's personal views, and do not necessarily represent the views of Newsclick.

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The US-NATO Invasion of Libya Destroyed the Country - NewsClick