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While a feud is raging between General Khalifa Haftar representing the parliament of Tobrouk, in the east, which is militarily and diplomatically supported by Egypt and Fayez al-Serraj, the head of the government of Tripoli, recognized by the international community, the population of Libya is missing the peaceful era of Qaddafi. True he was a dictator, but for the Libyans he kept the country stable and provided his people with all their needs and more, whereas, after his demise, Libyaslid into chaos.

As of today, no one believes that the present warring lords will lay down arms and form a government because their political egos are more important than the well-being of the country. A proof of this is they are not trying to talk to each other about a possible solution for the violent conflict which is destroying more and more of the country, causing heavy casualties and increasing instability in Libya and in the region.

New hope, new guide

Nevertheless, there is a flicker of hope appearing on the horizon that might, in the long run, bring relief and peace. Seif al-Islam, son of late Libyan dictator, Muammar Qaddafi, was recently freed by the Zintan militia. The grouphad arrested Seif al-Islam five years ago as he was trying to join his brother Saadi in Niger.

Seif al-Islam is no ordinary person, in the late years of his fathers reign he was involved in running the country. He definitely had his own vision of a new Libya, but would not contest his fathers rule, out of respect and fear, he wanted to bring incremental change to a country that is very patriarchal, tribal and deeply conservative. However, the Arab Spring of 2011 compromised his dream. During the uprising, galvanized by revolutionary rhetoric and drive, people saw in him but a mirror image of his brutal and megalomaniac father, no less and no more. Now that the Arab Spring is over, not to say dead, Libyans see him as the possible would-be architect of a new Libya, especially in the light of the ongoing political power struggle in the country.

In view of the dormant and unspoken admiration of the rank and file for him, he will, probably, with the help of the Zintan tribe and its militia quickly gain support among the people of Libya and be enthroned as the next guide, without firing a single bullet or twisting any arms, whatsoever. He enjoys a large appeal among the strong tribes of the country and he possesses the charisma of his father without his brutality and eccentricity.

Fearing his re-emergence as a strong player in any future political scenario for the country, the al-Serraj government of Tripoli condemned him to a death sentence on July 2015, while the Tobrouk parliament granted him amnesty and, consequently, the Zintan militia freed him within the framework of this amnesty, according to Colonel Ajmi al-Atiri of Zintan.

Will the West throw its support behind Seif al-Islam?

Following the downfall of Qaddafi and the arrest of Seif al-Islam by the Zintan Tribe, the International Criminal Court called on the latter to hand him overto be tried fairly for his role in quelling the uprising in 2011. However, the militia refused the request and kept the person in question in its prison, probably, for two reasons: firstly, his future political importance in the country and, secondly, his wealth worth billions of dollars hidden in the country among his tribesmen and maybe abroad.

The West wants Libya stabilized and ruled by a strong government and a charismatic leader. Both of the current protagonists do not have what it takes to lead Libya into a peaceful, democratic and prosperous future. Haftar is advanced in age and lacks political experience and al-Serraj is a puppet of the Islamist factions and enjoys no consensus, whatsoever among Libyans. In the light of this, Seif al-Isalm stands out as the man for the future of the country. He is young, 44 years old, well-educated, has political experience and can muster a large following within the country.

So the choice of the West can only fall on him, very much like Libyans do.

Seif al-Islam can, undoubtedly, bring his own people together, provide a strong government capable of disarming the militias and achieving much-needed stability and security, inject life into the faltering economy and build, incrementally, a democratic Libya open to Libyans and to the world.

A stable Libya is a must

Today, the instability of Libya is a source of worry for North Africa, Europe and the world at large. Lybia is used by economic migrants coming from poor African countries as a stepping stone to go to Europe for better prospects. But, the problem is that not all the migrants are looking for better living conditions in the European Eldorado, among them there are people with criminal inclinations, as well as, terrorists in the form of sleeping cells.

The militias in power in Libya are allowing migrants in and out of the country for a fee, unaware of the outcome of such a behavior on the stability in the Mediterranean and elsewhere. The instability that resulted from the fall of Qaddafis rule has already brought the plague of ISIS to the country which has taken Libyans many months with many casualties to end. The country in its failed status today is an easy prey to religious violence and terrorism and there are still many terrorists waiting in the dark in the Sahara desert for the propitious moment to strike at Europe or the Americas or elsewhere.

A stable Libya requires a charismatic leader, a strong army able to control the whole country, a viable and potent police force, an elected parliament and a democratic state. Will Seif al-Islam be able to deliver all of this to Libyans and the rest of the world or will he just be a mirror image of his brutal father? Only time will show.

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Is Saif al-Islam Waiting to Re-conquer Libya? - International Policy Digest (press release) (blog)

New York Times

Fighting in Libya's Capital as One Government Seizes Another's Compound New York Times TRIPOLI, Libya Armed groups aligned with a Libyan government in Tripoli that is backed by the United Nations took over a compound occupied by the leader of a rival government on Wednesday after heavy fighting that spread to several parts of the city. Key forces battling for control in LibyaNews24 Third day of clashes in LibyaeNCA News Roundup - Fri, Mar 17, 2017The Libya Observer WBOC TV 16 -The New Arab all 104 news articles »

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Fighting in Libya's Capital as One Government Seizes Another's Compound - New York Times

The route from Libya to Italy remains the deadliest irregular sea crossing in the world, with more than 5,000 people having drowned there last year. Photos: Matthew Mirabelli

Focusing only on reducing migratory flows from Libya at all costs risks de-legitimising the new Libyan government and de-stabilising the country, according to a new report about the political economy of Libya's human smuggling.

The report, The Human Conveyor Belt: An analysis of the industrialisation of human trafficking and smuggling in post-revolution Libya, was launched yesterday by the Global Initiative against Transnational Organised Crime and the European Centre for Development Policy Management.

The route from Libya to Italy remains the deadliest irregular sea crossing in the world, with more than 5,000 drownings there last year alone.

But this journey is only part of the dangerous trip that many take: some die while crossing the Sahara, while others are brutally detained or abused by militias.

The report, written by former Times of Malta news editor Mark Micallef, maps out the people involved, their networks and the flow of smuggling profits while highlighting the implications of the smuggling industry on Libya's transition and the stability across the Sahel-Maghreb.

Launching the report in Brussels, Mr Micallef referred to the 200 million agreement that the EU recently reached with the Libyan Government of National Accord to stem the flow of migrants.

Mr Micallef, now a senior research fellow at Global Initiative, noted that the Libyan economy and employment being on their knees, migration was certainly not on the Libyan people's priority list.

Expecting the GNA to deliver on something that was considered to be an outsider's agenda risked undermining the legitimacy of the government, he said.

Meanwhile, before Libya had one centralised government holding a reasonable amount of control over security, Europe would not know where the money was going, Mr Micallef added.

Before Libya had one centralised government holding a reasonable amount of control over security, Europe would not know where the money was going

During the launch, he noted that while continuing with the process of facilitating and encouraging Libyan dialogue to set up a true government of national reconciliation, there were local political ecosystems that Europe could engage with, such as municipalities and local communities.

Mr Micallef also comments in the report that any advancement of the European Unions border control plans must be accompanied by investment in the provision of protection and a relocation programme for refugees transiting through Libya.

Human smuggling and trafficking, and the ancillary criminal activities they have sustained or spawned, have entrenched themselves in the fabric of Libyan communities across the country.

Dealing with migratory flows at the end of the process on Libya's northern shores will very likely create sustained regional displacement and destabilising effects, the report says.

It adds that the smugglers business model will only be undermined by action on the demand side. A substantive relocation system inside Libya and further afield would create asylum queues that would ultimately divert business away from them.

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Focus to reducing migration from Libya could 'destabilise country' - Times of Malta

It is not clear if the Russian equipment and personnel are military or contractors, but US officials believe it's all part of the growing signs that Russia is interfering in Libya, according to this official and another US official.

There was some open discussion of this at the Senate Armed Services Committee last week, when the four-star head of Africa Command acknowledged the US believes Russia is trying to manipulate the political outcome in Libya.

General Thomas D. Waldhauser testified: "Russia is trying to exert influence on the ultimate decision of who becomes and what entity becomes in charge of the government inside Libya. They're working to influence that -- that the decision."

Sen. Lindsey Graham then asked about the Russians: "They're trying to do in Libya what they've been doing in Syria?"

Waldhauser answered: "Yes, that's a good way to characterize it."

CNN spoke to officials in Egypt about an earlier Reuters report alleging the placement of drones and special forces in Egypt near the Libyan border.

An Egyptian military official, speaking to CNN on the condition of anonymity, denied the presence of Russian troops on Egyptian soil, but declined to comment further saying the issue is a matter of sovereignty.

Dmitry Peskov, spokesman for Russian President Vladimir Putin, responded to CNN questioning about drones, saying "we don't have that information." On special forces in Egypt near the Libya border he added, "we also have no information about that."

Five years after the fall of Moammar Gadhafi, three governments vie for power in Libya, multiple tribes compete for influence and a slice of the country's dwindling oil wealth; while ISIS has gained a foothold in some areas.

Keen to promote stability, the United Nations hastened in a Tripoli-based Government of National Accord (GNA) early last year.

It continues to compete with the Islamist-dominated General National Congress in Tripoli, also known as the Government of National Salvation, and with the previous internationally recognized government, the Council of Deputies, which has set up camp in the east of Libya and backs Gen. Khalifa Haftar, the head of the so-called Libyan army.

This story has been updated to clarify remarks from an Egyptian military official.

CNN's Barbara Starr reported from Washington, Emma Burrows reported from Moscow and Sarah Sirgany reported from Cairo. Angela Dewan and Laura Smith-Spark also contributed to this report.

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US warns Russia is interfering in Libya - CNNPolitics.com

Tripoli - Dozens of armed factions have battled for control of oil-rich Libya since the 2011 fall of longtime dictator Muammar Gaddafi.

This week, four days of intense fighting saw pro-unity government armed forces expand their control in the capital Tripoli, where dozens of militias operate.

Further east, troops commanded by military strongman Khalifa Haftar said on Tuesday they had recaptured two important oil installations seized by a rival Islamist-led force in early March.

Haftar opposes the UN-backed Government of National Accord, instead backing a rival government based in Libya's east.

Here is a run-down of the key militias vying for clout in Libya:

The west

The GNA signed a ceasefire deal Thursday ending four days of clashes with rival militias, including groups allied with former prime minister Khalifa Ghweil.

Ghweil was ousted from power when the GNA took office in March 2016 and has refused to recognise the new administration.

But while Thursday's deal has consolidated GNA control over parts of the capital, dozens of militias still operate there - including several who support Ghweil.

The GNA's main backers in the capital include: the First Force, operating in Tripoli's east and centre; the Deterrence Force, an Islamist group running police-like operations in the city's east; and the Abu Slim Brigade controlling the southern working-class district of the same name.

The powerful militias of third city Misrata, east of Tripoli, also have major clout in the capital.

They played a vital role in the battle to topple Gaddafi and have been influential power-brokers in Libya ever since. They control swathes of the west including Misrata itself and districts of Tripoli.

Last year they formed the backbone of a pro-GNA coalition that ousted the Islamic State group from its coastal bastion Sirte, which they still control.

But some Misrata militias back Ghweil or Islamist militias who follow controversial Sheikh Sadek al-Ghariani, who opposes both of Libya's rival administrations.

The east

Troops commanded by Haftar this week ousted the Islamist Benghazi Defence Brigades from two key oil export terminals they had seized in early March.

That puts Haftar's self-proclaimed Libyan National Army (LNA) in control of much of Libya's east from the Oil Crescent to the Egyptian border - except for Derna, which is controlled by pro-Qaeda jihadists.

The LNA includes former Libyan army officers, militiamen, fighters from allied tribes, and some Islamist fighters.

Haftar opposes the GNA, but for two years his main priority has been battling jihadists in second city Benghazi.

An array of Islamist militias have unified ranks to fight him.

Among them are the BDB and the Revolutionary Shura Council of Benghazi, an alliance of Islamist militias that includes the al-Qaeda-linked Ansar Al-Sharia.

The south

Southern Libya is criss-crossed by smuggling routes for people, drugs and weapons. A mosaic of tribal and ethnic forces are fighting for control of illicit trade and oil fields there.

They include Tuaregs who control the border with southern Algeria. Further east, the Tubu people operates along the borders with Chad and Sudan.

Arab tribes in the region have supported authorities in western Libya but maintain close ties with the both west and east. They regularly clash with the Tubu.

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Key forces battling for control in Libya - News24