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File: Oil pipelines belonging to the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation that were destroyed with dynamite. The country is expected to produce about 1.43 million barrels per day, down from 1.54 million in December. Photo: PIUS UTOMI EKPEI / AFP

LONDON - When Opec reached a deal last year to cut oil output, the decision to exclude Nigeria and Libya from the restrictions was seen as a risk to the group's efforts to curb a global crude glut.

An oil price rally has already stumbled since the deal, but Nigeria and Libya are not to blame. Output from both nations has slipped since December and violence in the two African states makes their ambitions to hike production look optimistic.

"The success of these cuts, debatable as they may be, will not hinge on Nigeria and Libya," said ING analyst Hamza Khan.

Opec members and non-Opec producers agreed to cut output by 1.8 million bpd for six months from 1 January. Opec has broadly cut the amount pledged, while others have not delivered in full.

After rallying above $58 a barrel in January, Brent has now slipped to around $51, under pressure from bulging US inventories and rising US shale production.

Since the Opec deal, Libyan production has dipped to 615,000 barrels per day (bpd) from 630,000 bpd in December, as militias battle to control export sites in the east of the country. Libya was producing 1.6 million bpd in 2011.

READ:Libyan faction takes fight to eastern commander, exposes oil port defences

In Nigeria, militant attacks in the oil-producing Niger Delta have hobbled output, forcing the closure of the Trans Forcados Pipeline for all but a few weeks since February. Maintenance on the Shell-operated Bonga field has also weighed.

Nigerian output in March is now expected to be about 1.43 million bpd, down from 1.54 million bpd in December, after February's brief rise to 1.65 million bpd. Nigeria is chasing a target of 2.2 million bpd, last achieved in 2012, according to Reuters calculations.

Morgan Stanley forecasts Libyan production could rise to 900,000 bpd in the second half of 2017, while Nigeria could produce 1.6 million bpd in the same time frame. But the U.S. bank says unrest could undermine both those targets.

"It is possible that unplanned disruptions increase further," Morgan Stanley said in a March 10 research note.

Unpredictable

Libya's prospects look particularly unpredictable. Since Libyan leader Muammar Gaddafi was toppled in 2011, the North African nation has fractured as militias battle for power.

"With three rival governments, extremely weak state institutions, and an abundance of armed actors, Libya is anything but a stable and reliable producer," Royal Bank of Canada analysts wrote in a note.

In Nigeria, industry sources have told Reuters that repairs are nearing completion on the Trans Forcados Pipeline, which could swiftly add 250,000 bpd to output.

But attacks have repeatedly put the pipeline out of action and could do so again if peace talks with militants seeking a bigger share of oil revenues fail.

Even if Nigeria and Libya deliver on production goals -adding a combined 550,000 bpd, based on the most optimistic forecasts - it will still pale compared to the challenge OPEC faces from U.S. shale oil producers, who are adding capacity.

Buoyed by the price revival since Opecagreed cuts, US shale firms are expected to add 79,000 bpd of extra production in March alone, reaching total output of 4.87 million bpd.

Meanwhile, rising US inventories are overshadowing Opec's efforts, with the US Energy Information Administration reporting a rise in the week to March 3 of 8.2 million barrels to a record 528.4 million barrels.

"Storage numbers out of the United States, that's what would be keeping the bulls up at night," said ING analyst Khan.

Reuters

10 March 2017

US benchmark West Texas Intermediate for April delivery, slid $1 to $49.28 a barrel, its first close under $50 since December 7.

15 February 2017

US gasoline stocks also hit a record, rising 2.8 million barrels to 259.1 million barrels.

13 February 2017

OPEC and non-OPEC producers including Russia agreed late last year to reduce output by about 1.8 million barrels per day in a landmark deal that followed a sharp drop in oil prices

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Libya and Nigeria still on slow oil-recovery path - eNCA

FILE - In this March 5, 2011 file photo, an anti-government rebel sits with an anti-aircraft weapon in front an oil refinery in Ras Lanouf, eastern Libya. The fight for Libya's Ras Lanuf refinery and nearby Sidr depot threatens to spiral into open conflict between rival factions vying for power from east and west. With both sides claiming the facilities as their own but control unclear, decisive days lie ahead. (AP Photo/Hussein Malla, File)

CAIRO -- Hundreds or thousands of armed men are converging on Libya's main oil-shipping terminals, which the rival powers in the country's east and west are fighting to control in a battle being watched by global oil markets.

The struggle for the Ras Lanuf refinery and nearby Sidr depot threatens to spiral into an all-out conflict between east and west.

Already, it has seen the bloodiest fighting yet between the two camps: About 40 troops from the east were killed over four days as militias backed by western factions stormed the area Friday, losing a handful of casualties.

Now forces from the east loyal to military strongman Khalifa Hifter are massing nearby, threatening a new assault to wrest back the facilities, which nominally are in the hands of the Tripoli government.

In another step, the eastern parliament Tuesday voted to withdraw support from the United Nations peace deal that created the Tripoli government in January 2016 in hopes of ending years of chaos in the North African country. The withdrawal of support undermines the government, which has had difficulty asserting authority even in Tripoli.

Hifter, an army general, former CIA asset and U.S. citizen who lived nearly 20 years in American exile, is the most powerful figure in the east, touting himself as the champion against Islamic militants in Libya -- though his enemies accuse him of aiming to become a new dictator like Moammar Gadhafi, who was overthrown and killed in the country's 2011 Arab Spring revolt.

He has talked of marching to take Tripoli to unite the country, hinting he aims to rule. He opposed the government set up by the U.N. peace deal because it would have pushed him out as head of the military.

The general is backed by Egypt and Russia, but Washington under the Obama administration kept him at arm's length. One question in his future will be whether the U.S. warms up to him under President Donald Trump, who has sounded more favorable to Egypt and more open to dealing with regional strongmen.

Hifter commands a collection of militias and eastern tribal forces as well as the remnants of the Libyan National Army, including Gadhafi-era officers.

Hifter also is allied to the eastern-based parliament, which was the last legislature to be elected in Libya and had to flee east when opponents took over the west in 2014.

Hifter's forces seized the oil facilities last year. The Obama administration had joined the U.N. in calling on him to hand them over to the Tripoli government. Hifter had seemed more inclined to use them as a bargaining chip to force a rewriting of the peace accord.

But now that they have been wrested from him by force, he may resort instead to an all-out fight against Tripoli. His army says it is massing forces east of the terminals, awaiting orders. Their strength is unclear but they can call on reserves of thousands of eastern Libyan fighters and tribesman and are backed by Libyan and foreign air support. Hifter travels regularly to Cairo and insiders have said he flew there shortly after losing control of the terminals.

The Tripoli government was created under the U.N. deal in hopes of ending the east-west split. Instead, it has become just another player in that divide, reliant on its militia allies to have any authority.

Chief among those allies are the militias of the neighboring city of Misrata, the strongest and most cohesive fighting force in the west. The Misrata militias provide security for the Tripoli government and it was they who earlier this year captured the Islamic State group's main stronghold, Sirte, effectively defeating for now the extremists' attempt to extend their caliphate to Libya.

The international community has tried to bolster the Tripoli government -- particularly Italy, which is heavily invested in Libya's oil sector and has a military presence in the capital in the form of an army hospital that treated Misrata fighters during the battle against IS.

It was a newly formed militia that retook the oil facilities at Ras Lanouf and Sidr. The Benghazi Defense Brigades, as it is called, depicts itself as an eastern-based force, made up of former rebels and Islamic militants recently defeated by Hifter's forces in the eastern city of Benghazi. But it is clearly linked to the west, with some Misrata fighters in its ranks -- and its commanders recently held a press conference in Misrata.

The Brigades handed the oil facilities over to the control of the Tripoli government, which has ordered its National Petroleum Guards under Brig. Gen. Idris Abukhamada -- the official guard force for oil infrastructure -- to deploy at the sites.

Oil prices have dropped over the past week because of growing U.S. supplies, frustrating OPEC attempts to bolster the price by curbing production. While the supply glut is the biggest factor dominating the market, the Libya fighting has potential to put some upward pressure on prices.

It did so when the Brigades took Ras Lanouf and Sidr last week, forcing the shutdown of the maritime export terminals there, Libya's largest. That spooked the markets, causing a brief blip of higher prices. The facilities remain closed, causing some reduction in Libya's production, which in February had reached 700,000 barrels a day.

Oil is Libya's only real source of revenue, and it has been trying to rebuild the industry, though it remains but a shadow of the 1.6 billion barrels a day produced in 2011. While the oil facilities have changed hands several times over the past years, the revenues have continued to flow into the central bank based in Tripoli, an arrangement accepted by all parties that for the moment is not in doubt.

Heavier fighting at the facilities could further scare traders, especially if infrastructure is damaged.

The ball appears to be in Hifter's court. His forces could face only weak opposition if they stormed Ras Lanouf and Sidr, protected only by the official oil guard units.

But the impact could be much wider.

Until now, the powers in east and west have largely avoided fighting directly, instead battling through proxies. Storming the oil facilities would be a direct assault by Hifter on the internationally backed Tripoli government since it officially holds them now. Hifter would likely be seen as flouting the United Nations and European countries, which have called for a cease-fire.

That opens the door to further possible escalations. How far Hifter goes depends on whether he finds international supporters, but he could try to carry out his threats to move against Tripoli, pitting him against Misrata's powerful fighters.

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Libya's deepening split finds battleground at oil terminals - Southeast Missourian

Libya Herald

Young Libyan artists grow in vision and number in the midst of civil conflict Libya Herald My goal is to make people get lost inside of my paintings said Faiza Ramadan, a young artist from Tripoli the city that finds itself at the centre of the second Libyan civil war. Her art is made of rough lines making imperfect forms, intended to ... and more »

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Young Libyan artists grow in vision and number in the midst of civil conflict - Libya Herald

Russias Embassy in Libya, which is temporarily based in Tunisia, initiated investigation for the circumstances for the detaining of the cargo ship Merle in Libyan territorial waters off Tripoli.

The official representative of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation expressed the hope that the relevant companies will draw appropriate conclusions and will resolve the problem with the several Russian sailors.

The authorities promised to take all the necessary steps in newly emerged crisis situation. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation was in contact with the Libyan coast guard and were ensured that the sailors will be treated according to the local laws and will have fair trial.

According to incoming information, on March 5, the coast guard detained the Russian freighter Merlo in the coastal waters of Libya and arrested it. At the time on board there were seven people, all of them are Russian citizens, said the Director of the Information and Press Department of the Russian Foreign Ministry, Maria Zakharova.

Of course, all possible steps will be taken to settle the newly emerged crisis situation with our citizens in Libya as soon as possible, added she.

In connection with the continuing military and political situation in Libya and the threats to security of the Russian citizens and organizations with business in the country, the Foreign Ministry remind to refrain from visiting Libya for reasons of security until the situation in the country is normalized.

The Russian freighter Merle was arrested by Libyan Coast Guard personnel off Tripoli and was charged with smuggling oil from the country.

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Russian Foreign Ministry investigates Russian sailors arrested in ... - Libyan Express

Gen. Khalifa Hifter, the commander in the Libyan National Army, leaves after a meeting with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov in Moscow, Nov. 29, 2016. (photo byREUTERS/Maxim Shemetov)

Author:Week in Review Posted March 12, 2017

Russia seizes opportunity in Libya

Vasily Kuznetsov explains the evolution of Russias approach to the Middle East in terms of both its blunt pragmatism and, since 2011, defining itself as an alternative project rather than part of the West premisedon Russian historical experience.

Kuznetsov writes that this alternative project has extended to support for Gen. Khalifa Hifter in Libya.In backing Hifter, Moscow is seeking to shift its relations with Cairofrom mutual affinity into a solid alliance.Despite Hifters limitations, other armed groups in Libya are unreliable and weak. Nonetheless, Kuznetsov notes,This does not imply that Russia intends to ignore other Libyan actors. Amid the lack of developed institutions and overmilitarized society, the establishment of a resilient system entails a necessary broad consensus. Given the Syrian experience and Moscows general approaches, one can assume that as a mediator in Libya, the Kremlin will follow a regional track of the conflict resolution involving Egypt, Tunisia and Algeria as the key players.

There may also be a bit of payback in Putins meddling in Libya. US relations with Egypt have been shaken a bit since the protests thatoverthrew former Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak in 2011, and Russias abstention on UN Security Council Resolution 1973, which facilitated the US-led bombing campaign thathelped depose former Libyan dictator Moammar Gadhafi, still stings. Kuznetsov suggests that it is the Wests ideologically driven policies and its reluctance to recognize the imperfect world thatcause Moscows considerable irritation.

Does Barzani have a Yazidi problem?

Fehim Tastekin observes that in a turnaround from a decade ago, Iraqi Kurdistan Region President Massoud Barzani is received in Turkey as a reputable state leader and the Kurdistan flag is hoisted next to the Turkish flag. During his latest visitFeb. 27, the officialreception menuin Ankara was printed in Kurdish.

Tastekin adds, While Turkey adheres to combative relations with Kurds inside and outside the country, relations with Barzani are based on economic interests suchas oil and Turkeys design to use Kurds against Kurds.

He explains Turkeys expectations for Barzani and the KurdistanDemocratic Party (KDP) include not only dividing Kurds, but Yazidis as well.

For a while now, Barzani has been goaded into a policy of balancing Rojavas leading political party, the Democratic Union Party (PYD), and its military arm, the People'sProtection Units (YPG), with Syria's pro-BarzaniKurdish National Council (KNC) and the peshmerga of Rojava (officially theDemocratic Federal Systemof Northern Syria).In Iraq, Turkey expects Barzani to oust the outlawed Kurdistan WorkersParty (PKK) from Sinjar.Turkey fears the PKK will turn Sinjarinto an operationsbase to facilitate access between Syria and Iraq, Tastekin writes. Following Barzanis latest visit to Turkey, Syrian Kurds organized by Barzanis KurdistanDemocratic Party (KDP) under the name of 'Roj peshmergas'were sent to Sinjar March 2. The Yazidis'Sinjar Resistance Units(YBS) in Iraq, trained by the PKK, did not allow them to enter. Clashes erupted and there were casualties on both sides.

Tastekin suggests that Turkey may be willing to expand its training bases and intervene in the region, writing,Persistent declarations by Turkish leaders that Sinjar can't be allowed to become a second Qandil the main Kurdish headquarters in the Qandil Mountains in northern Iraq are naturally cited as confirming Turkey's role.According to high-level diplomatic sources talking to Turkish media, Ankara continues to cooperate with Erbil (Iraqi Kurdistan's capital) against the PKK presence inSinjar and in Makhmour, Iraq, and Turkey will intervene when the day comes. When the Mosul operation is concluded, then peshmerga forces will be able to transfer fighters to Sinjar and Makhmour. Should the Kurdish government want its help, Turkey will set up training bases around Kirkuk and in some northern areas."

Turkeys interests and interventions deepen the political and military fautlines in Iraq. The United States and Russia dont want the Kurds to fight each other, at leastas long as the IS threat exists. The cease-fire at Sinjar was arranged by the United States. Iraq'scentral government is unhappy with Kurdish aspirations to take over more disputed territory, hence its support for the YBS. Baghdad, which had cut off the salaries of Yazidi forces last year, has resumed payments because of protests by Turkey, which didnt want Yazidis to be dependent on the PKK.

A Russian role in Gaza?

Ben Caspit writes that the release of a report by Israels state comptroller Feb.28 about Operation Protection Edge, which took place in the summer of 2014, reveals that Israel still does not have a Gaza policy.Netanyahu has yet to come up with a policy on how to handle Gaza and Hamas. He has not yet decided whether he wants the Hamas regime to continue ruling Gaza in the long term. There is no serious Israeli effort to improve living conditions in the Gaza Strip. Yes, there is a lot of talk, such as remarks by Defense Minister Avigdor Liberman, who said that if Hamas stops digging its tunnels and dealing in terrorism against Israel, Israel will agree to the construction of a seaport for Gaza, the gradual lifting of the closure and maybe even allowing laborers from Gaza to enter Israel for work. But there is very little activity.

Also assessing the urgency of conditions in Gaza,Akiva Eldar wonders whether Russias relations with Hamas could be put to good use in the Gaza Strip.Eldar writes, At the start of the weekly Cabinet meeting March 5, Netanyahu said thaton March 9, in his talks in Moscow with Russian President Vladimir Putin, he would demand that any agreement on ending the Syrian civil war take into account Israelsdefense needs on its northern border. Why not make use of Russias good ties with Hamas to promote Israels security interests on its southern border, too? Less than two weeks ago, the Putin administration hosted Hamas and Fatah movement representatives for reconciliation talks. Putin would probably be glad to cut the ribbon at the new Gaza port.

GCC states take backseat on Syria

Mona Alami writes, Irans aggressive stance on Syria against the backdrop of a Saudi retreat can be attributed to the various players views of the region and their priorities for Saudi Arabia and Gulf countries,Yemenis perceived as a direct strategic threat, putting the Syrian opposition parties at a disadvantage in both the UN- and Russian-brokered negotiations.

Moreover, Alamis explains, Another detriment to the opposition was the shift in the balance of power: The regimes capture of Aleppo was accepted by Gulf states as an irreversible blow to the Syrian opposition."She adds,The change in Turkeys solid anti-Assad attitude, at least publicly,represented an added challenge for Gulf states. Turkey and Russia reached a dealin Augustresulting in Ankara assuming alaissez-faire approach to the regime:Moscow gave Turkey thegreen lightto enternorthern Syria under the banner of Operation Euphrates Shield. This operationnot only pushed into the Islamic State (IS) stronghold, but also landed a serious blowagainst Kurdish ambitions to unite the three Kurdish cantons of Hasakah, Kobani and Afrin, which could have paved the way for future independence. Without Ankaras full support, GCC[Gulf Cooperation Council] countries are unable toincrease military support to rebels, as the Turkish border is the only supply route to northern Syria.

She continues, These nearly concomitant events have left the Syrian opposition isolated and further weakened. Demographic changes occurring in Syria, with rebels pushed out of the Damascus region and Aleppo to the northern areas, has only added pressure on the already-fraying opposition. Increased clashes and fragmentation have taken place within major groupssuch as Ahrar al-Sham, followed by the emergence of new groups at the behest of Jabhat Fatah al-Sham, under the name Hayat Tahrir al-Sham. The military head of the group, Jabhat Fatah al-Shams Abu Mohammed al-Golani, in late February denounced theopposition's participation in the Geneva talks, calling on rebels instead to launch fresh attacks.

Read More: http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2017/03/russia-libya-hifter-barzani-iraq-sinjar-israel-gaza-syria.html

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Putin gets some payback with 'alternative project' for Libya - Al-Monitor