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Libyan warlord Gen. Khalifa Haftar is taking a new moves after suffering a series of military defeats in recent weeks. On Monday evening, he announced the formation of a new government, claiming to have a popular mandate. Haftar leads the so-called Libyan National Army (LNA), which on paper, serves the House of Representatives and the High Council of State in Tobruk, a port city on Libyas Mediterranean coast.

By deciding to seize political power, Haftar not only declared himself head of state but also scrapped the Skhirat Agreement, which the U.N. brokered in 2015. The warlord aims to create a new executive body under the U.N.-recognized House of Representatives and launch a transition process to discredit the internationally recognized Government of National Accord (GNA) and usurp Libyas leadership. Haftars second move was to accept the international call for a humanitarian cease-fire during the remainder of the Muslim holy month of Ramadan.

Haftars statements have an unmistakable meaning: Having failed to take the Libyan capital, Tripoli, through military force, the warlord now turns to diplomacy. After his defeat on the battlefield, Haftar seeks to keep a lid on discontent among his followers and strengthen his hand at the negotiating table.

Under normal circumstances, Haftar would have been expected to wait until he conquered Tripoli before declaring himself head of state. Yet Turkeys support for Libyas legitimate government since September 2019, coupled with the conclusion of two memoranda of understanding on Nov. 26, tilted the balance of power in the GNAs favor. Over the following months, Haftar lost control of his strongholds along the Mediterranean coast between the Libyan capital and Tunisia. The strategically important town of Tarhunah, too, remains under siege.

As the Libyan forces break the siege of Tripoli, Haftar faces growing criticism in eastern Libya. Turkish military support for the GNA prevented a collapse of the alliance around the capital. In places like Sirte, the risk of local fighters collaborating with Haftars militias has been mitigated. If anything, fighters and tribal leaders loyal to the LNA are increasingly likely to work with Libyas legitimate government, improving the GNAs reputation in the international communitys eye. In the end, Haftar was compelled to declare himself head of the state.

Haftars latest move clearly violates the terms, to which the parties agreed at the Berlin conference on Jan. 19. Indeed, the European Union, the U.S., France and Russia stated that they did not condone Haftars unilateral declaration. At the same time, Turkey accused the Libyan warlord of attempting to create a military dictatorship and pledged to defend the countrys legitimate government.

Needless to say, there is no reason to expect Haftar to abide by his own cease-fire or abort his mission to take Tripoli. He will use this opportunity to prepare fresh attacks. The Libyan warlord, who derives his power from certain tribes, local fighters, supporters of the Moammar Gadhafi regime and radical Madkhali Salafists, is forced to up the ante in order to keep that alliance intact. To contain anger over his latest defeats, Haftar put himself in charge of everything.

The international community remains unlikely to mount pressure on Haftar, who just scrapped a U.N.-brokered agreement and ignored the Berlin conference. The military conflict will continue, with no political process to reunite Libya in sight. Certain groups will continue to promote their own peace plans. But the situation will remain unchanged unless the great powers, i.e. the U.S., the EU, Russia and Turkey, impose a joint plan on all parties.

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Libya on the verge of division? | Daily Sabah - Daily Sabah

As Libyan strongman Khalifa Haftar unilaterally announced his acceptance of the Libyan presidency, Russian reaction was predictable: Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov called for diplomacy. In Moscow, we remain convinced that the only possible resolution in Libya can be through political and diplomatic communication between all parties, above all those in conflict, he said. Russian sources said the Libyans must implement the proposals from the January 2020 Berlin conference.

What Russia did not mention was the support Haftar is receiving from the Kremlin itself. Haftars primary fighters are not Libyans, but Russian mercenary soldiers from the Wagner Group, the same non-governmental unit that Russia deploys in Ukraine and Syria to do its ground fighting. Neither does Russia call for all parties to accept the internationally-recognized Government of National Accord; nor does it insist that Haftars rebels lay down their arms. As for the Berlin conference, Russia has indicated its time is past: Instead of a UN-sponsored peace conference, Russias call for diplomacy includes the statement: Russia remains in contact with all participants in the Libyan conference.

We have seen this before. In Azerbaijan, Russia holds separate peace talks over the future of Nagorno Karabakh, instead of furthering the internationally mandated Minsk process. In Georgia, Russia insisted it would provide a peacekeeping force until it used that peacekeeping force to fight in the 2015 war. Afterwards, Russia again insisted on diplomacy while recognizing the governments of the breakaway areas of Abkhazia and South Ossetia. In Moldova, Russia keeps troops bivouacked in Transdniestria while calling for negotiations with the central government. In Ukraine, Vladimir PutinVladimir Vladimirovich PutinGovernment warns Russia may try to advise 2020 candidates, campaigns in secret Pulitzer Prize awards include reporting on climate change, Putin Russia wants a frozen conflict in Libya MORE has issued a peace plan that calls for a peaceful end of that conflict but Russia will not allow Kyiv to control its own borders until the Kremlin-backed rebels have their demands met. In Syria, Russia calls on the world community to recognize the central government of Bashar al-Assad, while it actively supports groups opposed to the legitimate governments of Azerbaijan, Georgia, Moldova and Ukraine.

Now it begins again in Libya. Libyas Interior Minister recently reported that Russias Wagner Group used a chemical nerve agent against government forces. Washington Institutes Anna Borshchevskaya documents a deeper Russian involvement than merely supplying mercenaries. Haftar reportedly reached out to Moscow for support sometime around 2015. In exchange, he promised to give Russia energy deals and port access. Putin began providing Haftar with military advice, diplomatic support at the United Nations, and even its own printed money. In 2017 Moscow flew dozens of Haftars wounded soldiers to Russia for treatment. The U.S. military believes that either Russian mercenaries or Haftar loyalists used Russian air defense systems to shoot down an American drone outside Tripoli last November. Yet, being able to operate a Russian air defense system is a high-end skill that not many mercenaries have, and raises questions about the full extent of Russias presence there.

Russia has pushed the West out of the Caucasus, made an attempt to peel Turkey away from NATO, seeks to use its energy policies to make Europe dependent on its good graces. The Caspian and Black Seas have become Russian lakes. With a major naval base in Syria, if Russia succeeds in becoming the indispensable actor in Libya, Putin will have succeeded in gaining control of the Eastern Mediterranean.

Despite the overwhelming evidence of Russias involvement on the rebel side, Moscow maintains correct relations with the Government of National Unity. This gives it the veneer of being merely an interested bystander instead of an active participant in the conflict. Russia has used the same tactic in Azerbaijan, Georgia, Moldova and Ukraine. If the West wants to maintain a presence east of Italy, it needs to take the following steps:

James J. Coyle, Ph.D., served in a number of positions in the U.S. government, including as director of Middle East Studies, U.S. Army War College. He is the author of Russias Border Wars and Frozen Conflicts.

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Russia wants a frozen conflict in Libya | TheHill - The Hill

UNHCR has announced it will be distributing more emergency aid in Tripoli to help the most vulnerable during Ramadan, as war and the novel coronavirus pandemic increase difficulties for many.

The UN Refugee Agency, UNHCR announced on May 3 that it would bebeginning "a series of extra emergency distributions in Tripoli, toassist some of the most vulnerable people during Ramadan, as war andCOVID-19 present new threats."

Thefirst distribution took place on Sunday to 100 people in a deprivedarea of Tripoli where many live without sufficient water orsanitation. Some of those helped on May 3 told UNHCR staff they hadrecently been released from detention in Libya. Many of them had beenworking as day laborers but due to restrictions placed on them by themeasures taken to combat the coronavirus, they had lost their onlysource of income.

Food for a month

Each package, stated the UNHCR press release, contains a food parceldesigned to sustain someone for one month, water purificationtablets, from fellow UN Agency UNICEF, and a hygiene kit.

Theagency is aiming to reach 500 people by the end of the first weekand to have provided aid to about 4,000 by the end of the Muslim holymonth of fasting.

Jean-PaulCavalieri, the UNHCR Chief of Mission in Libya said: "We recognizethat daily life in Libya is terribly difficult, for Libyans as wellas refugees and asylum seekers." Cavalieri said that war andCOVID-19 had just made things even more challenging."

'Ramadan is a time to show solidarity'

Cavaliericontinued that "Ramadan is an important time to show solidaritywhen people are really struggling with their daily needs." He saidthat the lack of work meant that many who had been getting by were "unable to [] support themselves"

As wellas food packages, UNHCR said that they were also providing extra helpwith the Libyan health care system, which had been severely impactedby the conflict. "Many hospitals or health facilities, located inareas close to the conflict, have also been damaged or closed."

Thepress release stated that the UNHCR and partners are providing "generators, ambulances, pre-fab containers and tented clinics insupport of local health care services across the country." Corerelief items, including soap, have been distributed in Misrata andBenghazi to try and help at least 20,000 displaced people. "Severaldetention centers where hygiene conditions are very poor," havealso been targeted with relief.

As well as physical aid, UNHCR and its partners have stepped up theirpublic information campaigns, aiming to inform migrants about how toprotect themselves against being infected with the novel coronavirus.

Public health campaign

In avideo, a UNHCR volunteer Suleiman, originally from Somalia, tellsrefugees to "stay at home, wash your hands, and please take care ofyourselves." Suleiman is working with the UNHCR in Libya "toprotect refugees from the coronavirus," explains the video.Suleiman and the other volunteers share tips via WhatsAppabout how tohelp protectthemselves and others.

Other agencies are also distributing food and aid in Tripoli andbeyond. IOM Libya tweeted on April 30 that it was busy distributing aid to 150 migrants in Tripolialongside the World FoodProgramme (WFP).

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UNHCR increases relief to refugees and migrants in Libya during Ramadan - InfoMigrants

Worse still, the oil blockade imposed since January by the renegade general prosecuting this war has imposed serious financial constraints on a state that not only relies on imports for nearly everything but will also have additional budgetary tolls from its Covid-19 response. Initially this meant that the system Libyan importers use for everything from pharmaceuticals to basic goods, a central bank issued letter of credit were unavailable. Although these restrictions were eventually eased, it has coalesced with general attacks from both sides on the others supply lines, as well as the imperatives of war to create shortages in basic goods.

This distressing mixture of war, shortages, and fear over Covid-19s many unknowns is yet one more force to push further atomisation and stir popular unrest. If severe outbreaks do occur, we could see key port cities closing themselves off from the rest of the country to try and hoard resources, under a worsening mentality of every city or tribe for themselves.

In eastern Libya, instead of leading too attempts to work with Tripolis GNA in a functional manner or with the municipality devolved budgets, a fear of unrest led to the military-style administration in de-facto power to take control of the Covid-19 response and threaten dissenters as treasonous. This followed a spree of protests after people were ordered into curfew before they were able to withdraw any money from banks still suffering a severe liquidity crisis.

Those protests and the fearful response to them highlight the potential for turbulence should Covid-19 take hold in Libya. Libyas healthcare system was in ruins well before this latest war started, and its resources have only been further consumed and depleted by the voracious requirements of this now stagnant war on Tripoli. Meanwhile, Libyas Centre for Disease Control is learning the extreme difficulties of emergency procurement amidst a global pandemic. Historically, Libyans would go abroad to seek treatment for any serious condition but given the closed borders of a world in lockdown, this too is now an impossibility. These are factors which all starkly highlight Libyas complete inability to deal with the exponential rise in cases that weve seen elsewhere.

Excerpt from:
A Libya story: pandemic and human rights in times of conflict - Open Democracy

Libyans protest GNC extension, photo via Wikipedia

BESA Center Perspectives Paper No. 1,548, May 4, 2020

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: Turkey under Recep Tayyip Erdoan is constantly looking for opportunities to enhance its status as a regional superpower and promote its Islamist ideology in the Arab Middle East. Libya is the newest arena in which Erdoan is trying to capitalize on inter-Arab rivalries, this time in service to his desire to lay claim to gas under the seabed of the Mediterranean.

The so-called Arab Spring, which erupted in late 2010, brought several Arab countries to a state of near or in some cases total collapse. Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdoan saw this as an opportunity to further his perpetual quest for broad regional power. Earlier in 2010, prior to the uprisings, he had sent the Mavi Marmara cruise ship to save Hamas in Gaza from the Zionist blockade. In February 2011, following the ousting of President Hosni Mubarak in Egypt, he threw Turkish support behind the Muslim Brotherhood and provided support to Qatar, the Brotherhoods main financier.

Recently, a representative of the Khalifa Haftar government in Libya was named ambassador to Syria. He reopened the Libyan embassy in Damascus with the full consent of Assads government. The embassy had shut its doors in 2013, as did all Arab League diplomatic missions in Damascus following the suspension of Syrias membership in that organization. That occurred in response to the Assad regimes refusal to comply with a 2011 League resolution mandating a ceasefire in the Syrian civil war.

Khalifa Haftars rival in the bicephalic control system that has ruled Libya since the start of the second Libyan civil war in 2014 is the Tripolibased Government of National Accord. That government has signed cooperation agreements in the economic, energy, security, military, and maritime borders areas with Ankara, its chief ally and patron. Ankara is also a supporter of the rebel groups currently fighting Assad in Syria.

The creation of these two oppositional axesAssad-Haftar vs. Tripoli-Ankaradeserves notice. Other theaters of conflict that are still simmering ten years after the explosion of the Arab Spring undoubtedly contributed to the alignment of Haftar with Assad and pushed Fayez Sarrajs Government of National Accord into Erdoans arms. These practical alignments have deep ideological common denominators: on the one hand the remains of Arab nationalism, which is claimed by both the Baath party of Assads Syria and by Haftars Libyan National Army; and on the other hand the primarily Islamic Brotherhood foundations that underpin both Erdoans policies and Tripolis orientation.

The implications of these new alliances are not confined to their immediate theaters of conflict (Idlib in Syria and Misrata and Tripoli in Libya). Russia and Turkey have been trying to cooperate with one another for some time, but keep supporting opposite sides in Middle Eastern conflicts. This occurred in Syria and is happening again in Libya. Turkish forces are being sent to reinforce Sarrajs forces in the battle for Tripoli, where they find themselves fighting official Russian mercenaries (the Wagner group, which captured Crimea and provinces in Donbass in eastern Ukraine) that have been incorporated into the Libyan National Army. Israel, Cyprus, and Greece find themselves blocked by the sudden delineation of a direct maritime border between distant Turkey and Libya, a border that threatens the maritime gas line from Israel to Europe. The anti-Muslim-Brotherhood Sisi government in Egypt is menaced by a disquieting Islamic Turkish presence on its western border. NATO members France and Greece are supporting Haftars forces while the US, the UK, and Italy support Sarrajs.

Hulusi Akar, the current Turkish minister of defense and former Turkish chief of staff who headed NATOs military missions in Afghanistan, Bosnia, and Kosovo and commanded most of the Turkish involvement in the Syrian Civil War, now oversees the Turkish military intervention in the second Libyan civil war. The deployment of troops to support Sarrajs forces started on January 5, 2020, and consists mainly of rebel fighters from the anti-Assad Syrian National Army accompanied by Turkish military advisors. Six thousand of those fighters have already been deployed, and they have suffered 151 combat casualties so far.

It seems that combining elements of the second Libyan Civil War with the Syrian Civil War is adding fuel to the fire and perpetuating these conflicts, which arose from the Arab Spring.

The violence in Libya will continue to devastate that oil-producing country as long as domestic rivalries are supported by external intervention. The Turkish involvement in Libya and Syria prolongs the agonies of the Libyan and Syrian people and propels more refugees toward Europe. Turkeys intervention in Arab countries should be viewed by the world as a major crime against those countries and Europe alike.

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Col. (res.) Dr. Dan Gottlieb is a graduate of the Hebrew University in Jerusalem and the Bar-Ilan University law faculty. He served four rounds of service in different parts of Africa and is a leading authority on African issues within the Israel Medical Association.

Lt. Col. (res.) Dr. Mordechai Kedar is a senior research associate at the Begin-Sadat Center for Strategic Studies. Heserved for 25 years in IDF military intelligence specializing in Syria, Arab political discourse, Arab mass media, Islamic groups, and Israeli Arabs, and is an expert on the Muslim Brotherhood and other Islamist groups.

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Turkey and the Libyan and Syrian Civil Wars - besacenter.org