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A new set of geopolitical conflicts buoyed oil prices higher today after yesterday's sell-off pushed WTI below its 50-day moving average.

Conflicts in Iraq and Libya were the main reason for the rise in oil (NYSEARCA:USO) prices today, while consensus continue to overwhelmingly focus their attention on US shale production and rig counts.

Oil markets are prone to geopolitical risk factors that are hard to forecast. Namely, Iraq is having issues again with Kurdish factions. Since the OPEC production cut deal started, secondary sources peg Iraq as the least compliant member out of OPEC. Our estimate and secondary sources put Iraq's production cut at only 80k to 100k b/d, which is far less than what it promised to cut.

Iraq is unlikely to cut the full amount promised from the OPEC agreement due to the nature of its production. Conflicts erupted with Kurdistan as Iraq's current oil revenue sharing deal is coming under scrutiny with the locals. Reuters reported that forces loyal to the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK) seized the Kirkuk facilities and briefly suspended oil flows. PUK is seeking to cancel the oil sharing deal with Iraq within a week or else it threatens further action.

The implication of this conflict can impact up to 150k b/d which is exported through Turkey.

Libya on the other hand is seeing geopolitical issues flare up again with the Eastern ports of Es Sider and Ras Lanuf under attack today by Benghazi Defence Brigades (BDB), an armed faction group comprised of fighters that were ousted from the Libyan National Army (LNA).

So far, there have been no official statements from the Libyan National Oil Corporation (NOC) stating the impact the attacks had on oil flows. The continued conflict in Libya however highlights the sensitive geopolitical situation it's in with a split government ruling body and constant conflicts from armed militant groups. Libya's oil production has recently topped out around 680k b/d and falling according to the latest February estimates. Without additional capital investments, Libya's existing producing fields will likely start seeing accelerating production decline rates as a lack of field maintenance from the last five years start to deplete existing fields. We see Libya's oil production heading lower for the rest of 2017.

Geopolitical conflicts from Iraq and Libya will continue, and the likely impact will be supportive of oil prices. Our fundamental analysis of the oil markets also point to the supply and demand balance becoming more bullish over the next several months. We expect to see much higher oil prices in the next six months.

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I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

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Uncertainties In Iraq And Libya Buoy Oil Prices Higher - Oil Markets Daily - Seeking Alpha

Russia is urging U.S. President Donald Trump to help it resolve conflicts in Syria and Libya, where the Kremlin is finding it tough going after seizing the initiative in a bid to act as a leading power in the region.

We would like to see an active U.S. role in Syria,Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Gennady Gatilov said in an interview in Geneva. The United States is one of the most important players here.

Russia isready to work with the U.S. in Libya, Gatilov said, even as the Kremlin has shown frustration at Trumps failure so far to make good on his promise to mount a joint fight against Islamic State. Russia has backed Khalifa Haftar, a powerful eastern military commander, saying he must have a role in the Libyan leadership. It hosted his rival, Prime Minister Fayez al-Serraj, whos recognized by the United Nations, for talks on Thursday in Moscow as it seeks to broker a solution.

Russias growing role in Libya comes after it mounted a push to end Syrias civil war following successful military intervention in support of President Bashar al-Assad against mostly Islamist rebels, as it seeks to rebuild Soviet-era influence in the Middle East and wider region. But the Kremlin has discovered it needs U.S. help to succeed.

We are interested in stabilizing the situation in Libya and Syria but we need to cooperate with the U.S. in this field, said Irina Zvyagelskaya, a senior fellow at the Kremlin-linked Russian Academy of Sciences Institute of Oriental Studies.

Russias hopes of an entente with the U.S. have met with disappointment as the Trump administration faces a continued storm in Washington over alleged Kremlin interference in the election.

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Friday there has been no movement on anti-terrorism cooperation with the U.S. and no substantive contacts about Syria.

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Russia this week fought to keep UN-led peace negotiations on Syria on track. The Kremlin is trying to advance a political settlement tosecure an exit strategy for its Syrian military campaign, but is struggling to reconcile this goal with the interests of its ally Assad and his other main patron Iran. A cease-fire brokered in December by Russia and Turkey, a key rebel backer, is holding shakily. Russia also needs to ensure the U.S. and its allies help pay for the costly future post-war reconstruction of Syria, a senior Western diplomat said.

The conflict has killed at least 300,000 people, sent millions more fleeing to neighboring countries and Europe, and allowed Islamic State to seize a swath of territory from which to wage global attacks. While Trump has previously called for an alliance with Russia to fight the jihadists, hes also branded Iran as the No. 1 terrorist threat, putting himself at odds with the Kremlin.

Russia strongly believes that Iran should have a role in fighting terrorism and would welcome it if Trump cooperated with Assad in defeating Islamic State, Gatilov said.

Libya, 5 Years After Qaddafi, Still Caught in Chaos: QuickTake

In Libya, where the collapse in order has allowed Islamic State to claim a foothold though its now on the defensive after losing its last major holdout in December, the path to an agreement between Russia and the U.S. may be easier.

If there will be any common ground for cooperation with the United States in bringing stability in Libya, of course we would be open to all contacts, he said.

In addition to Russia, Haftars also backed by Egypt and the United Arab Emirates. For us, General Haftar is the real power and he shouldnt be ignored in the political process, Gatilov said.

A one-time ally offormer Libyan leader Muammar Qaddafi,Haftar, 73, controls a large swath of Libyas territory and most of its oil fields.

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Russia Urges Trump to Help Fix Syria, Libya Crises Amid Setbacks - Bloomberg

N'Djamena - Chad has reopened one of its border crossings with chaos-wracked Libya, having shut it down in January citing a "potential terrorist infiltration", the government said on Friday.

"Given the growing number of our nationals who want to return home, and for humanitarian reasons, we have decided to open a corridor to allow them to cross the border," Security Minister Ahmat Bachir said.

While the crossing at Wour in the far north of Chad is again open, the authorities are keeping the rest of the 1 400 km border with Libya shut.

On January 5, the Chadian government announced it had closed the border and was boosting its military presence.

Libya has been in turmoil since the downfall of longtime dictator Moammar Gaddafi in 2011.

Chad is considered a key ally of the West in its fight against jihadists in Africa.

President Idriss Deby Itno is supported by France and the United States, who need the cooperation of the Chadian military in the region.

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Chad reopens border crossing with Libya - News24

The Senior Special Assistant to the President on Foreign Affairs and Diaspora, Mrs Abike Dabiri-Erewa, says another set of 180 Nigerians are expected in Nigeria from Libya on Tuesday.

Dabiri-Erewa disclosed this when she received the Federal Commissioner, National Commission for Refugees, Migrants and Internally Displaced Persons Commission, Alhaja Sadiya Farouk in Abuja on Friday.

This set will be the third batch of Nigerians to return from Libya to the country in one month.

One hundred and sixty one Nigerians returned from Libya on Feb.14 and another set of 171 returned on Feb. 16.

The presidential aide said the Federal Government was expecting more migrants back in the country and attributed the development to the current happenings around the world.

She said her office would therefore be working with the commission to sensitise Nigerians on the need to avoid irregular migration.

Your visit is timely because we expect more migrants back home.

In fact, 180 Nigerians are expected back from Libya on Tuesday.

With what is going on around the world, it is going to be worse. We will work with your commission to continue to sensitise Nigerians on the need for them to know that some places are not just worth it, she said.

In her remarks, Farouk commended Dabiri-Erewa for her efforts toward ensuring that Nigerians in diaspora were treated with dignity.

She condemned the xenophobic attacks on Nigerians in South Africa and pledged her commissions commitment to a sustained advocacy to end such unwarranted attacks.

The federal commissioner promised to work with Dabiri-Erewa to educate Nigerians on the dangers of irregular migration.

She said: These programmes will better inform Nigerians on their options, so they can make informed decision and develop realistic expectations when traveling outside the country.

It is important to note that the issue of sensitisation is an offshoot of the National Migration Dialogue.

The dialogue highlighted the need to establish a migration desk in all states and local governments which will provide sensitisation from the grassroots level in order to curb the root causes of irregular migration.

According to her, the commission has also developed return, re-admission and reintegration programme which provides referrals to settlement services for returnees.

Farouk said the commission had also developed a Standard Operating Procedure (SOP), for the conduct of returnees, readmission and reintegration of Nigerians as part of efforts to further cater for returnees.

What is obtainable is an adhoc approach which is not sustainable.

The SOP when operationalised, will ensure that the returning Nigerian migrants are adequately reintegrated into the society.

The SOP has been validated by the relevant stakeholders but yet to be institutionalised. We therefore seek your partnership to ensure the operationalisation, she said.

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Again Libya to deport another 180 Nigerians Tuesday Presidential aide - Vanguard

Benghazi Defense Brigades (BDB) launched early on Friday a surprise on Dignity Operation forces in the oil crescent region in central Libya and took control of Sidra port and Ras Lanuf Airport, in addition to Ben Jawad and Nofaliyatowns.

The attack is part of a military operation called Return to Benghazi aimed at facilitating the return of Benghazi IDPs to their city.

The operation was met with mixed reactions. In Tripoli and Misrata, demonstrations were held Friday evening to support the operation.

Libyas Grand Mufti Sheikh Sadiq Al-Gharyani hailed the Return to Benghazi Operation and said on Tanasuh TV that victory is looming, calling residents of east Libya to join BDB to liberate Benghazi from the grip of Dignity Operation.

The operation was also praised by the Union of Benghazi IDPs. It said the operation aims to break the siege on Ganfouda and free the trapped families in there.

Libyan Elders Council and Tajoura elders have also welcomed the operation.

On the other hand, the UN-proposed Presidency Council condemned the operation and confirmed that it has no links to the fighting in the crescent region.

The Defense Ministry of UN-proposed government called all parties in the crescent region to stop fighting and said it would send a force to the region if both parties refused to comply with the cease fire call.

Tobruk-based House of Representatives also condemned the operation and hold local parties and some foreign countries, which it did not name, responsible for the attack.

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Military operation of Benghazi brigades in Libya's oil region draws mixed reactions - The Libya Observer