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Libyas returning oil wealth could bring back cheap fuel, food and foreign goods in a subsidy-based system in the most optimistic scenario. But as oil prices and production rise, the future of new political developments hangs in the balance in a growing power struggle between Russia and the United Nations.

Last week, the U.N.-backed Government of National Accord (GNA) in Libya announced plans to reshuffle its leadership, which it hoped would be a way to bring influential General Khalifa Haftarthe GNAs key rivalinto the Tripoli-based organizations ranks.

Cairo hosted members of both parties to discuss cooperation between Haftars House of Representatives/Libyan National Army based in Tobruk and the GNA which vowed a 180 degree turn in relations if Haftar agreed to take a role within its hierarchy. But the meeting never happened.

Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi could not convince Haftar to accept a position within the GNAs governing structure, rendering the meeting fruitless at a crucial moment for the next stage of Libyas reconstruction. More than ever, the presence of a strong U.N.-backed GNA with Haftars support is necessary to keep Russian interests at bay.

As highlighted by the Huffington Post last week, Russian President Vladimir Putin is paying his dues to solidify Moscows foothold in Libya after all but guaranteeing the future of President Bashar Al-Assad in Syria.

Haftar a U.S. citizen who lived in Virginia for 20 years -- has travelled to Moscow twice in the past six months for meetings with senior Russian military and defense officials. Leading up to the swearing in of U.S. President Donald Trump, the general toured a Russian aircraft carrier parked right off of the Benghazi coast, where he held a video conference with Defense Secretary Sergei Shoigu.

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Putin maintains that his country has observed the terms of the U.N.s weapons embargo to any military organization other that its own GNA, but Russian military advisors have been offering their services to the LNA with increased enthusiasm in recent months.

The relative stability of the status quo could fall apart at any moment jeopardizing the progress that the unified National Oil Corporation (NOC) has made in recovering oil production to levels seen only in the last days of dictator Muammar Ghaddafi.

New figures from the NOC marked oil production at 700,000 barrels per day, on track to meet its 1.7 million bpd production goal for March 2018, when all oil facilities will be at full capacity. The increasing revenues are crucial for the reconstruction of the countrys major industrial areas as the Arab Spring-sparked civil war wraps up.

So far, the NOC has been able to reliably secure areas with the presence of foreign oil and gas multinationals.

Eni and Total are working there with no problems, so the situation is improving every day in Libya and Id like to take this opportunity as an introduction for those who have interest to work in Libya, NOC board member Jadalla Alaokali said in an interview during the Cairo talks. More than 45 percent of the land is still virgin, hasnt been explored, so we still have large areas that havent been discovered, so the opportunity is there.

Domestic turmoil led fellow members of OPEC to exempt Libya from the restrictive terms of a recent deal to cut output and reinvigorate oil prices. Unencumbered by the production limits endured by its rivals, Tripoli now has an opportunity to benefit from US$50+ oil prices without stalling new exploration projects.

Russia is making another major move on Libyan oil. Russias state-owned Rosneft just signed investment and crude oil purchasing agreements with the NOC, agreeing to invest in exploration and production.

Burgeoning Russian influence and new wealth could mean weapons contracts for Russia, which lost a few billion in arms deals after the fall of Ghaddafi. Installing Haftar in a Ghaddafi-style government would be Moscows surest route to recovering those upended contracts.

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Observers should take new developments in the North African state with a grain of salt. An assassination attempt on Fayes al-Sarraj prime minister of the GNA -- like the one that happened just this morning in Tripoli could cause the political arena to erupt with a vengeance.

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"The prime ministers convoy came under fire as it passed by a government complex held by supporters of the national salvation government [led by Khalifa al-Ghawiel]," a member of the presidential council told Anadolu Agency anonymously. Al-Ghawiel, who disbanded the GNAs rival General National Congress (GNC) in April, only to revolt and reestablish it in October, would have gained notoriety had the attack succeeded.

In 2015, the U.N. established the unity GNA to end the conflict between Haftars HoR and the GNC. The unwelcome return of the latter, and its latest attempt at a political knockout, guarantees forceful clashes between militias affiliated with both groups.

At any point, all momentum could be thwarted by a strategic explosion or murder, ending fragile truces. And the stakes only grow higher as Libyan oil wealth returns.

By Zainab Calcuttawala for Oilprice.com

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As Haftar Moves Closer To Russia, Will Libya Become The Next Syria? - Yahoo Finance

February 21, 2017 The bodies of at least 74African migrants have been found washed up on the shores ofwestern Libya after their inflatable boat's engine was stolen, according tothe Libyan Red Crescent and local officials from the Libyan coast guard.

The bodies were recoveredMondayafternoon and eveningnear the city of Zawiya. The refugees appeared to have been dead for about two days prior to their recovery. Another 12 migrants from the boatremain missing and are "presumed drowned," according to the UN migration agency. The sole survivor of the tragedy was transferred to a local hospital in a coma.

It is unfortunately common for smugglers to packlarge rubber boats with up to 180 migrants to send towards Italy and other parts of Europe, which make them easy to capsize. Poor conditions and accidents on these overcrowded vessels led to a record number of deaths over the past year.

But according toJoel Millman, a spokesman for the International Organization for Migration (IOM), this incident may have been a little different. A local IOM staff member had reported that "traffickers came and removed the engine from the boat and left the craft adrift," leaving the people on board completely helpless in open ocean.

"This is not a only horrible number of deaths in one incident but it strikes us as something that we haven't really seen much of, which is either deliberate punishment or murder of migrants," he said.

These kinds of cynical and often outright cruel measures taken by smugglers against refugees attempting to flee into Europe have been well documented over the course of the refugee crisis. As Peter Ford reported for The Christian Science Monitor in August 2016:

No longer do people-smugglers carry refugees to the Italian coast and then return home to Libya for another consignment.

Instead they pack boats with passengers, load just enough fuel for them to reach international waters, give basic instructions on how the engine works and which direction to head in, and then cast the migrants loose.

It is not the intention that these boats make it to Europe, a recent EU report found. They are designed to reach the high seas, to then trigger a search and rescue operation.

Sometimes the smugglers leave a satellite telephone with their clients, along with a number for the Italian maritime rescue center in Rome, so that the refugees can call to tell somebody that they exist.

But while a number of rescue ships do patrol international waters between Libya and Europe in search of these migrants, they often arrive too late to help. And the longer the refugee crisis drags on, the more perilous the journey becomes for those who choose to make it, as smugglers grow ever cheaper.

"We are seeing the new boats, which are not equipped with anything, but they carry more people," said Libyan coast guard spokesman Ayoub Gassim. "This is going to be even more disastrous for the migrants."

The escape route between Libya and Italy is a popular but dangerous one for migrants fleeingpoverty and conflict elsewhere in Africa. Libya, which has been in a state of civil war itself since2011, is largely governed by local militias that often turn a profit from the trafficking, with its two main opposing governments busy competing for power in separate parts of the country.

The European Union hopes to stem the tide of migrants by sending money to the UN-brokered government in Tripoli(which is weak and not recognized by the rival government) and by training the Libyan coast guard.But many human rights groups have decried the EU's plan, which they say would strand migrants in the country and leave them open to further human rights abuses at the hands of the local militias.

Arjan Hehenkamp,head of Doctors Without Borders,criticized the plan, calling the EU "delusional about just how dangerous the situation in Libya really is."

Last year, 181,000 migrants attempted the crossing between Libya and Italy, 4,500 of which are known to have died on the way. The IOM said this latest discovery of bodies has brought the 2017 death toll up to more than 365.

This article contains material from the Associated Press and Reuters.

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Dozens of migrants found drowned on Libya's coast: Refugees' route to Europe continues to be deadly - Christian Science Monitor

CAIRO Scores of bodies of African migrants washed ashore in Libyas western city of Zawiya on the Mediterranean, a spokesman for the Libyan Red Crescent said Tuesday the latest tragedy at sea after migrant deaths rose to record levels along the key smuggling route over the past months.

At least 74 bodies were found in Zawiya, according to Rec Crescents spokesman Mohammed al-Misrati, who feared an even higher death toll. He said that a torn rubber boat was found nearby and that he expected more bodies to surface as such boats usually carry up to 120 people.

Al-Misrati told The Associated Press that the bodies were found on Monday morning and that the Red Crescent workers retrieved them between 1 p.m. and 7 p.m.

The aid agency posted on its Twitter account photographs of dozens of bodies in white and black body bags, lined up along the shore. Al-Misrati said the local authorities would take the bodies to a cemetery in the capital of Tripoli that is allocated for unidentified persons.

Libyan coast guard spokesman Ayoub Gassim said over 500 migrants were rescued at sea on Friday and Saturday off the shore of the city of Sebratha, which is to the west of Zawiya. The migrants boats were 5-7 miles from the coast of Libya.

Gassims aid the coast guard is seeing the smugglers use larger rubber boats in order to pile more migrants into the weak vessels some taking on 180 people and dramatically increasing the risk to the migrants.

We are seeing the new boats, which are not equipped with anything, but they carry more people, he said. This is going to be even more disastrous to the migrants.

Last week, Fabrice Leggeri, director of the European Border and Coast Guard Agency, said the Libya-Italy smuggling route across the Mediterranean has seen record numbers of migrant drownings in 2016.

According to Leggeri, migrant deaths along the central Mediterranean route stood at 4,579 for last year, which still might be much less than the true loss of life. Thats compared to 2,869 deaths in 2015 and 3,161 in 2014.

There is little sign of the surge is abating, even during wintertime. There were 228 recorded deaths in January, by far the biggest monthly toll in recent years. Leggeri blamed the very small dinghies and poor vessels used by the smugglers for the high death rate.

Overall, central Mediterranean migrant crossings increased by 17 percent last year to 181,459 people, according to statistics.

In Libya, the turmoil engulfing this North African country has become a death trap for thousands of migrants, most of them from sub-Saharan African countries, seeking to escape poverty and find a better life in Europe.

Libya is split by competing governments and many militias rule on the ground, many of them profiting from smuggling and human trafficking. Rights groups have documented migrants horror journeys involving torture, rape, and forced labor inside Libya.

The country sank into lawlessness following the 2011 uprising that turned into a full-blown civil war that led to the toppling and killing of longtime dictator Moammar Gadhafi.

Since then, human trafficking has thrived amid Libyas chaos.

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Bodies of 74 migrants wash ashore in Libya - New York Post

An oil refinery in Zawia, Libya. The country is keen to boost oil production with the help of foreign companies. Photograph: Ismail Zetouni/Reuters

Russia has significantly boosted its involvement in Libya by signing a potentially major contract to help redevelop Libyan oilfields.

The head of the Libyan national oil corporation (NOC) signed a cooperation agreement with Rosneft, the Russian oil giant, which NOC said on Tuesday lays the groundwork for investment by Rosneft in Libyas oil sector.

The agreement envisages the establishment of a joint working committee of the two partners to evaluate opportunities in a variety of sectors, including exploration and production, an NOC statement said.

Russia had extensive investments in Libya before the fall of Muammar Gaddafi in 2011, and is eager to recover as many of them as possible in a country still plagued by violent conflict but keen to boost oil production with the help of foreign companies.

In recent months Vladimir Putin has become increasingly embroiled in the country as western-backed efforts to end the long-running political impasse have failed to soothe disagreements between factions in the east and the UN-recognised government of national accord (GNA) in Tripoli.

Russia is increasingly seen as a key player in persuading Khalifa Haftar, the head of the self-styled Libyan National Army based in the east of the country, to compromise over a future role in a new consensus government. Haftars forces control most of Libyas oil resources.

Efforts to secure a new political future for Libya have stalled after the failure of an Egyptian-led process, which saw Haftar travel to Cairo but refuse to meet the leader of the GNA, Fayez al-Sarraj.

Despite the snub, Sarraj has agreed to changes in the composition of his government but, in a sign of the countrys fragility, he survived an assassination attempt on Monday in Tripoli along with two of his senior aides.

Haftar has sought Moscows help to battle Islamic State, but European diplomats fear he could join what has been described as Putins axis of secular authoritarians in the Middle East alongside the Syrian president, Bashar al-Assad, and the Egyptian president, Abdel Fatah al-Sisi.

Libya is one of a handful of Opec members who have been spared the need to reduce crude oil production in the first half of this year. Opec and 11 independent oil producers have agreed to cut output by a total of 1.2m barrels per day. However, Iran, Nigeria and Libya were permitted not to cap and even to increase oil production due to their complicated political environments.

Italys Eni and Frances Total are working in Libya and Schlumberger , the worlds largest oilfield services company, resumed operations in the country about three months ago.

Mustafa Sanalla, the chairman of NOC, one of the few functioning, bipartisan technocratic bodies in Libya, signed the agreement with the Rosneft chairman, Igor Sechin.

We need the assistance and investment of major international oil companies to reach our production goals and stabilise our economy, said Sanalla. This agreement with Russias largest oil company lays the foundations for us jointly to identify areas of cooperation. Working with NOC, Rosneft and Russia can play an important and constructive role in Libya.

More here:
Russia increases involvement in Libya by signing oil deal - The Guardian

AIDAN LEWIS

Last updated04:13, February 22 2017

David Ramos

Migrant deaths have risen to record levels along the Libya-Italy smuggling route across the Mediterranean Sea.

The bodies of at least 74 migrants have been found washed up on the shore in western Libya after the engine of their inflatable boat was stolen, coastguard and aid officials said on Tuesday (Wednesday NZ Time).

Red Crescent spokesman Mohamed al-Misrati said the corpses had been recovered on Monday (Tuesday NZT) near the city of Zawiya and the migrants appeared to have died during the past two days. They were all adults, mostly from sub-Saharan African countries, and all but three were men.

The Zawiya coastguard posted a video that showed the migrants' boat, with no engine, as the first bodies were recovered.

Joel Millman, a spokesman for the International Organization for Migration (IOM), said a local staff member had reported that "traffickers came and removed the engine from the boat and left the craft adrift".

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"This is not a only horrible number of deaths in one incident but it strikes us as something that we haven't really seen much of, which is either deliberate punishment or murder of migrants," Millman said.

Libya is the main departure point for migrants hoping to reach Europe by sea. They generally attempt the crossing in flimsy inflatable craft loaded with small amounts of fuel which are intended to get them only as far as European rescue vessels stationed in international waters.

Most leave from the stretch of Libyan coast between Tripoli and the Tunisian border to the west. The bodies of those who drown are frequently found washed up on Libyan shores.

The Red Crescent published pictures of the bodies laid out in white and black body bags along the beach. Some of the images showed a semi-deflated grey rubber boat of the kind typically provided by migrant smugglers, with wooden boards inserted to reinforce the floor, pulled up half-way onto the beach close by.

Some bodies were still inside the boat. A local volunteer said the toll could rise, as some bodies had been spotted in the sea but aid workers had not yet been able to recover them.

Last year a record 181,000 migrants crossed between Libya and Italy. More than 4500 are known to have died. The IOM said the latest incident raised the total number of deaths this year to more than 365.

Having largely closed off sea crossings between Turkey and Greece last year, the European Union is searching for ways to stem the flow of migrants from Libya.

This month European leaders offered Libya money and other assistance to try to reduce the numbers departing across the Mediterranean. Aid groups criticised the move, saying such plans exposed migrants to further risks and abuses within Libya.

-Reuters

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Migrant bodies wash ashore in Libya - Stuff.co.nz