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Five people remained missing on Sunday after scores of migrants in an inflatable boat were rescued in turbulent waters off the coast of Libya overnight.

About 122 of the migrants were saved after being spotted by the Golfo Azzuro, run by the Spanish Proactiva Open Arms group.

We saw the lights, the rescue boat, but we were very far, Farses, a migrant from Ghana, told AFP aboard the Golfo Azzuro.

He had earlier been playing draughts, also called checkers, with another Ghanaian; both had won a game, so they agreed to play the tiebreaker once they were in Italy.

But the friend fell asleep, and was among seven who fell into the sea when a strong wind buffeted the boat. Only two people were recovered.

He was swimming very fast. But we couldnt wait for him, because the wind was very strong, Farses said.

The one who was driving the boat wouldnt stop, (saying) We have to move on, move on.

The Spanish boat brought the migrants to the Italian island of Lampedusa, the latest in a wave of some 1,200 migrants that have been rescued on the Mediterranean and brought to Italy in recent days.

On Friday, the Italian coastguard said the number of migrants saved in rescue operations this year had surpassed 15,000.

Aid groups say the exodus is being driven by worsening living conditions for migrants in Libya and by fears the sea route to Europe could soon be closed to traffickers.

The United Nations refugee agency estimates that 440 people have lost their lives trying to make the crossing from Libya to Italy since the start of 2017.

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Five missing after 122 migrants rescued off Libya - Vanguard

Seeking Alpha A new set of geopolitical conflicts buoyed oil prices higher today after yesterdays sell-off pushed WTI below its 50-day moving average. Conflicts in Iraq and Libya were the main reason for the rise in oil (NYSEARCA:USO) prices today, while consensus continue to overwhelmingly focus their attention on US shale production and rig counts.

Oil markets are prone to geopolitical risk factors that are hard to forecast. Namely, Iraq is having issues again with Kurdish factions.

Since the OPEC production cut deal started, secondary sources peg Iraq as the least compliant member out of OPEC. Our estimate and secondary sources put Iraqs production cut at only 80k to 100k b/d, which is far less than what it promised to cut.

Iraq is unlikely to cut the full amount promised from the OPEC agreement due to the nature of its production. Conflicts erupted with Kurdistan as Iraqs current oil revenue sharing deal is coming under scrutiny with the locals. Reuters reported that forces loyal to the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK) seized the Kirkuk facilities and briefly suspended oil flows. PUK is seeking to cancel the oil sharing deal with Iraq within a week or else it threatens further action.

The implication of this conflict can impact up to 150k b/d which is exported through Turkey.

Libya on the other hand is seeing geopolitical issues flare up again with the Eastern ports of Es Sider and Ras Lanuf under attack today by Benghazi Defence Brigades (BDB), an armed faction group comprised of fighters that were ousted from the Libyan National Army (LNA).

So far, there have been no official statements from the Libyan National Oil Corporation (NOC) stating the impact the attacks had on oil flows.

The continued conflict in Libya however highlights the sensitive geopolitical situation its in with a split government ruling body and constant conflicts from armed militant groups. Libyas oil production has recently topped out around 680k b/d and falling according to the latest February estimates. Without additional capital investments, Libyas existing producing fields will likely start seeing accelerating production decline rates as a lack of field maintenance from the last five years start to deplete existing fields. We see Libyas oil production heading lower for the rest of 2017.

Geopolitical conflicts from Iraq and Libya will continue, and the likely impact will be supportive of oil prices. Our fundamental analysis of the oil markets also point to the supply and demand balance becoming more bullish over the next several months. We expect to see much higher oil prices in the next six months.

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Oil prices increase as conflicts in Libya, Iraq intensify - Libyan Express

Dabiri-Erewa disclosed this when she received the Federal Commissioner, National Commission for Refugees, Migrants and Internally Displaced Persons Commission, Alhaja Sadiya Farouk in Abuja on Friday.This set will be the third batch of Nigerians to return from Libya to the country in one month.

One hundred and sixty one Nigerians returned from Libya on Feb.14 and another set of 171 returned on Feb. 16.

The presidential aide said the Federal Government was expecting more migrants back in the country and attributed the development to the current happenings around the world.

She said her office would therefore be working with the commission to sensitise Nigerians on the need to avoid irregular migration.

Your visit is timely because we expect more migrants back home.

In fact, 180 Nigerians are expected back from Libya on Tuesday.

With what is going on around the world, it is going to be worse. We will work with your commission to continue to sensitise Nigerians on the need for them to know that some places are not just worth it, she said.

In her remarks, Farouk commended Dabiri-Erewa for her efforts toward ensuring that Nigerians in diaspora were treated with dignity.

She condemned the xenophobic attacks on Nigerians in South Africa and pledged her commissions commitment to a sustained advocacy to end such unwarranted attacks.

The federal commissioner promised to work with Dabiri-Erewa to educate Nigerians on the dangers of irregular migration.

She said: These programmes will better inform Nigerians on their options, so they can make informed decision and develop realistic expectations when traveling outside the country.

It is important to note that the issue of sensitisation is an offshoot of the National Migration Dialogue.

The dialogue highlighted the need to establish a migration desk in all states and local governments which will provide sensitisation from the grassroots level in order to curb the root causes of irregular migration.

According to her, the commission has also developed return, re-admission and reintegration programme which provides referrals to settlement services for returnees.

Farouk said the commission had also developed a Standard Operating Procedure (SOP), for the conduct of returnees, readmission and reintegration of Nigerians as part of efforts to further cater for returnees.

What is obtainable is an adhoc approach which is not sustainable.

The SOP when operationalised, will ensure that the returning Nigerian migrants are adequately reintegrated into the society.

The SOP has been validated by the relevant stakeholders but yet to be institutionalised. We therefore seek your partnership to ensure the operationalisation, she said

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Another 180 Nigerians expected home from Libya tomorrow - BusinessDay (satire) (press release) (registration) (blog)

Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov (R) meets with Libyan Prime Minister Fayez al-Sarraj in Moscow, March 2, 2017(photo byREUTERS/Sergei Karpukhin)

Author:Vasily Kuznetsov Posted March 5, 2017

The head of Libyas United Nations-backed government, Fayez al-Sarraj, undertook an official visit to Moscow to meet with top Russian diplomats and officials March 2-3. Russia has been stepping up efforts in Libya, which seems baffling outside the wide regional context. There is a popular opinion that Russian foreign policy, including planning in the Middle East, may sometimes be tactically impeccable but lacks strategic thinking. Some believe that unpredictability has been a hallmark of the Kremlin's foreign policy.

Russias revived interest in the Middle East goes back to Vladimir Putins second presidential term (2004-2008), and for a long while the authorities have focused on economic development and the need for most diversified economic ties. Their attitude has been typified by blunt pragmatism.

The well-known discordin 2011 between Dmitry Medvedev, who was then president, and Putin, who was then prime minister,over UN Security CouncilResolution 1973 on Libya may also be illustrative of Russia's pragmatic stance. Russia then abstained from the vote in the Security Council, thus avoiding the image of being the dictator's benefactor and of being engaged in the conflict. At the same time, Putin called the Western policy "a new crusade" while referring to US damage inflicted on Iraq, which was consistent with the assessments that pervaded Russian society.

Neither the Kremlin reshuffle nor the Arab Spring drove Russia to refrain from its reserved pragmatism. Even the 2012-13 rule in Egypt of Mohammed Morsi of the Muslim Brotherhood, an organization declared extremist in Russia, did not stand in the way of stronger bilateral ties, even at the top level.

Following the notorious events in Ukraine, which led to a further escalation of tensions with the West, politics and security began to prevail over the economy for Moscow. Still, it failed to devise any clear foreign policy strategy except its own pivot to the East.Even the start of the military operation in Syria in September 2015 did not clarify whether Moscow aspires to replace the United States as a new Middle East hegemon or just uses the region in its contest with Washington. It was a head-scratcher.

The missing strategy seems to be a conscious choice of the ruling political elite rather than a sign of its confusion. Postmodernity is characterized by the absence of a reliable strategy. The United States and Europe's numerous failures in the Middle East testify to the fact, while the ill-fated, futileand disastrous Libyan venture in 2011 is its graphic illustration.

Therefore, the abolition of strategic objectives requires a new analysis of the values and principles of world politics and Russia's place in the world.

Since the 1999 NATO bombing of Yugoslavia, the Russian political establishment has strongly distrusted the West, as the latter has been manipulating human values to its advantage. The mistrust along with the elite's idiosyncrasy to any ideology thatwas bred in the late Soviet era has conjured up an image of a profoundly cynical capitalist world.

However, the ensuing confrontation with the West, whose leaders turned their back on Russia, and the need to identify Russia as an alternative project rather than part of the West have led to deliberations over world politics premisedon Russian historical experience. Theapproach of these deliberations seems to be based on seven principles: Security prevails over development;only stability can provide both security and development as revolutions are always destructive;stability is based on strong state institutions;institutions cannot be imposed from outside, socio-political engineering is inefficient;only a strong sovereign state can deliver security and development;unilateral steps on the world stage are destructive; andinternational law is the only means of creating a sustainable world order.

Looked at in this light, Russia is largely pursuing national security interests in the Middle East. Meanwhile, the events in 2015-17 showed that steps driven by the need to ensure security could produce new interests, with a new stable regional system of international relations being the major one.

This allows for an understanding of both the causes of Russias stepped-up efforts to deal with Libya and Moscows approaches to settling the countrys conflict.

Even though Russias existential interests are not at stake in Libya, one can emphasize four contexts providing rationales for its moves.

First, the list includes Moscows general line aimed at stabilizing the region. Not only does the policy contribute to Russias security, but it also throws into sharp relief its effective and attractive methods.

Second, add to the mixture Russian-Egyptian relations, which requirespecific measures totransform mutual affinity into a solid alliance, with Egypts regional position being strengthened. A weak Egypt, Moscow argues, will further destabilize the Middle East, as historical, geographical and demographic forces have predetermined the countrys key role. Assisting Egypt in handling Libya constitutes a means of bolstering Cairos regime.

Third, the agenda encompasses Russias Mediterranean policy and the countrys ties with European Unionmember states. According to aninformed source, Europe has but once given signals to the Kremlin that the refugee-affected countries are seeking Russias active involvement in Libyas affairs, which in the long run could improve relations between Moscow and Brussels.

At the same time, a friendly or loyal regime in Libya could emerge as part of the Russia-dominated axis of Damascus, Cairo and Tripoli.

Fourth, economic interests of Russian businesses striving to gain a foothold in new markets must also be considered.

All these factors may account for Moscows interest in Libya rather than its marked bias in favor of Gen.Khalifa Hifter. Given the particular episodes in the commanders biography, which should instill mistrust among Russias policymakers, their sympathetic attitude towardHifter is especially awkward.

Yury Barmin, an analyst ofRussias foreign policy in the Middle East,suggests the Kremlin perceives Hifter as a new Col. Moammar Gadhafi. Although Barmin may have a point, the two leaders and the surrounding contexts are strikingly different. Gadhafi hasnever had to forcibly unite the country, with his political system originally resting upon the then most popular ideology in the Arab world. Gadhafi, along with his young supporters, articulated the interests of the most modernized groups of generally traditional society. (Now it is much more modernized.)This does not play into Hifters hands.

Nevertheless, the Libyan marshal may have been chosen as an ally by Cairo rather than Moscow. In this view, it is the dialogue with the former that represents the latters paramount interest. Hifters and Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisis ideological affinity, which concentrates on confronting the Muslim Brotherhood, makes them even more attractive to Moscow.

Finally, the Kremlins willingness to act as appropriate, thus refusing to impose its own will, gives another explanation for its focus on Hifter. Indeed, the marshal has objectively proved to be Libyas most powerful figure. Amid the chaos, his personified power makes him more appealing, with individual groups being unreliable and weak. Fierce opposition to Hifter and prioritizing the Government of National Accord mean standing in the way of natural processes and fueling the ongoing war. It is the Wests ideologically driven policies and its reluctance to recognize the imperfect world thatcause Moscows considerable irritation.

However, this does not imply that Russia intends to ignore other Libyan actors. Amid the lack of developed institutions and overmilitarized society, the establishment of a resilient system entails a necessary broad consensus. Given the Syrian experience and Moscows general approaches, one can assume that as a mediator in Libya, the Kremlin will follow a regional track of the conflict resolution involving Egypt, Tunisia and Algeria as the key players.

Read More: http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2017/03/russia-libya-sarraj-foreign-policy-putin-hifter.html

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What is Russia's thinking on Libya? - Al-Monitor

CAIRO The number of bodies washing up on Libyan shores is escalating as the refugee crisis worsens. But migrants also are facing perils even before they step into a boat.

On Thursday alone, Italys coast guard reported that about 970 people were rescued off the Libyan coast. Since January, more than 13,400 have landed on Italys shores, roughly a 50 percent increase over the same period last year.

Judging by the increase in the number of trips made by migrants, we can affirm that the crisis has worsened this year, said Mohammed al-Mosrati, a spokesman for the Libyan Red Crescent. This is all because of the intolerable economic, security and political conditions faced by those migrants in their countries.

An estimated 487 migrants have died crossing the Mediterranean, most of whom departed from Libya, according to the Missing Migrants Project run by the International Organization for Migration. That is a 13 percent increase from last year, when an estimated 425 deaths occurred over the same period.

The deaths this year include at least 74 migrants whose bodies washed ashore last month on a beach near the city of Zawiyah in western Libya. More than 4,500 people drowned last year on the smuggling routes between Libya and Italy a record number, according to the European border-management agency Frontex. The United Nations Childrens Fund estimates that 700 of the victims were children.

[Where the worlds refugees live]

The Central Mediterranean from North Africa to Europe is among the worlds deadliest and most dangerous migrant routes for children and women, Afshan Khan, a senior UNICEF official working on migrant and refugee issues, said in a statement this week. The route is mostly controlled by smugglers, traffickers and other people seeking to prey upon desperate children and women who are simply seeking refuge or a better life.

Efforts by European nations to close the migrant sea routes between Greece and Turkey are believed to have played a role in the growing flows to Italy from Libya, particularly from its western shorelines, which are less than 200 miles from the Italian coast.

Smugglers are increasingly packing migrants into smaller, weaker boats to make more money, according to Frontex, adding that it expects drownings to increase this year as a result.

Meanwhile, children and women are routinely becoming targets of sexual violence and other abuses along the route from northern Africa to Italy, UNICEF warned in a report this week. During the journey, many end up in crowded detention centers in Libya, where they often also are denied access to medical care and legal assistance, and endure poor sanitation and a lack of nutritious food.

Some detention centers are run by Libyas U.N.-backed government, while others are controlled by armed militias.

Three-quarters of children interviewed said that adults had beaten or harassed them. Nearly half the women surveyed said they had been raped or sexually abused. The abuses were occurring in part because many children and women were under pay as you go arrangements with smugglers, leaving them in their debt and vulnerable to abuse, abduction and trafficking, the report said.

Children should not be forced to put their lives in the hands of smugglers because there are simply no alternatives, Khan said.

But any hope for alternatives is slim. The multibillion-dollar smuggling networks thrive on the chaos that has followed the ouster and death of Libyan dictator Moammar Gaddafi during the 2011 populist uprising, a chapter of the Arab Spring revolutions that swept across the Middle East and northern Africa.

That chaos shows no sign of disappearing. The oil-producing nation is riven by militias competing for oil, territory and influence. There are three competing governments, all of which say they are the legitimate authority in the country. Different regions are controlled by rival militias who make their own laws and regulations, control border crossings and exploit migrants at will.

That has brought obstacles for the Libyan Red Crescent and other humanitarian aid agencies. The fact that there are multiple authorities in Libya requires that we get permissions from different ones to even be able to perform our jobs, said al-Mosrati. It is crippling us.

The Libyan Red Crescent is already hard-pressed for funding and resources, and it runs itself largely with a volunteer force to assist migrants, said al-Mosrati. While a few international organizations provide some funding and aid, We do not get any support from the Libyan authorities, he said.

Add this to the increasing number of migrants, and you will understand how the situation has worsened, said al-Mosrati. Numbers are increasing, and we cannot assist the new immigrants. We fail to give them food, shelter or even the medical care they need.

The crisis will keep on worsening so long as there is no aid to humanitarian groups to face these challenges and provide the needed help to the migrants, he said.

Heba Mahfouz contributed to this report.

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Migrants face abuses in Libya even before they risk death at sea - Washington Post