Archive for the ‘Libya’ Category

Uncertainties In Iraq And Libya Buoy Oil Prices Higher – Oil Markets Daily – Seeking Alpha

A new set of geopolitical conflicts buoyed oil prices higher today after yesterday's sell-off pushed WTI below its 50-day moving average.

Conflicts in Iraq and Libya were the main reason for the rise in oil (NYSEARCA:USO) prices today, while consensus continue to overwhelmingly focus their attention on US shale production and rig counts.

Oil markets are prone to geopolitical risk factors that are hard to forecast. Namely, Iraq is having issues again with Kurdish factions. Since the OPEC production cut deal started, secondary sources peg Iraq as the least compliant member out of OPEC. Our estimate and secondary sources put Iraq's production cut at only 80k to 100k b/d, which is far less than what it promised to cut.

Iraq is unlikely to cut the full amount promised from the OPEC agreement due to the nature of its production. Conflicts erupted with Kurdistan as Iraq's current oil revenue sharing deal is coming under scrutiny with the locals. Reuters reported that forces loyal to the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK) seized the Kirkuk facilities and briefly suspended oil flows. PUK is seeking to cancel the oil sharing deal with Iraq within a week or else it threatens further action.

The implication of this conflict can impact up to 150k b/d which is exported through Turkey.

Libya on the other hand is seeing geopolitical issues flare up again with the Eastern ports of Es Sider and Ras Lanuf under attack today by Benghazi Defence Brigades (BDB), an armed faction group comprised of fighters that were ousted from the Libyan National Army (LNA).

So far, there have been no official statements from the Libyan National Oil Corporation (NOC) stating the impact the attacks had on oil flows. The continued conflict in Libya however highlights the sensitive geopolitical situation it's in with a split government ruling body and constant conflicts from armed militant groups. Libya's oil production has recently topped out around 680k b/d and falling according to the latest February estimates. Without additional capital investments, Libya's existing producing fields will likely start seeing accelerating production decline rates as a lack of field maintenance from the last five years start to deplete existing fields. We see Libya's oil production heading lower for the rest of 2017.

Geopolitical conflicts from Iraq and Libya will continue, and the likely impact will be supportive of oil prices. Our fundamental analysis of the oil markets also point to the supply and demand balance becoming more bullish over the next several months. We expect to see much higher oil prices in the next six months.

If you are interested in reading our oil market analysis, you can sign up here. For additional information on premium, please read this.

Disclosure: I/we have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.

I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

Read more here:
Uncertainties In Iraq And Libya Buoy Oil Prices Higher - Oil Markets Daily - Seeking Alpha

Again Libya to deport another 180 Nigerians Tuesday Presidential aide – Vanguard

The Senior Special Assistant to the President on Foreign Affairs and Diaspora, Mrs Abike Dabiri-Erewa, says another set of 180 Nigerians are expected in Nigeria from Libya on Tuesday.

Dabiri-Erewa disclosed this when she received the Federal Commissioner, National Commission for Refugees, Migrants and Internally Displaced Persons Commission, Alhaja Sadiya Farouk in Abuja on Friday.

This set will be the third batch of Nigerians to return from Libya to the country in one month.

One hundred and sixty one Nigerians returned from Libya on Feb.14 and another set of 171 returned on Feb. 16.

The presidential aide said the Federal Government was expecting more migrants back in the country and attributed the development to the current happenings around the world.

She said her office would therefore be working with the commission to sensitise Nigerians on the need to avoid irregular migration.

Your visit is timely because we expect more migrants back home.

In fact, 180 Nigerians are expected back from Libya on Tuesday.

With what is going on around the world, it is going to be worse. We will work with your commission to continue to sensitise Nigerians on the need for them to know that some places are not just worth it, she said.

In her remarks, Farouk commended Dabiri-Erewa for her efforts toward ensuring that Nigerians in diaspora were treated with dignity.

She condemned the xenophobic attacks on Nigerians in South Africa and pledged her commissions commitment to a sustained advocacy to end such unwarranted attacks.

The federal commissioner promised to work with Dabiri-Erewa to educate Nigerians on the dangers of irregular migration.

She said: These programmes will better inform Nigerians on their options, so they can make informed decision and develop realistic expectations when traveling outside the country.

It is important to note that the issue of sensitisation is an offshoot of the National Migration Dialogue.

The dialogue highlighted the need to establish a migration desk in all states and local governments which will provide sensitisation from the grassroots level in order to curb the root causes of irregular migration.

According to her, the commission has also developed return, re-admission and reintegration programme which provides referrals to settlement services for returnees.

Farouk said the commission had also developed a Standard Operating Procedure (SOP), for the conduct of returnees, readmission and reintegration of Nigerians as part of efforts to further cater for returnees.

What is obtainable is an adhoc approach which is not sustainable.

The SOP when operationalised, will ensure that the returning Nigerian migrants are adequately reintegrated into the society.

The SOP has been validated by the relevant stakeholders but yet to be institutionalised. We therefore seek your partnership to ensure the operationalisation, she said.

See the original post here:
Again Libya to deport another 180 Nigerians Tuesday Presidential aide - Vanguard

Chad reopens border crossing with Libya – News24

N'Djamena - Chad has reopened one of its border crossings with chaos-wracked Libya, having shut it down in January citing a "potential terrorist infiltration", the government said on Friday.

"Given the growing number of our nationals who want to return home, and for humanitarian reasons, we have decided to open a corridor to allow them to cross the border," Security Minister Ahmat Bachir said.

While the crossing at Wour in the far north of Chad is again open, the authorities are keeping the rest of the 1 400 km border with Libya shut.

On January 5, the Chadian government announced it had closed the border and was boosting its military presence.

Libya has been in turmoil since the downfall of longtime dictator Moammar Gaddafi in 2011.

Chad is considered a key ally of the West in its fight against jihadists in Africa.

President Idriss Deby Itno is supported by France and the United States, who need the cooperation of the Chadian military in the region.

24.com encourages commentary submitted via MyNews24. Contributions of 200 words or more will be considered for publication.

See more here:
Chad reopens border crossing with Libya - News24

Military operation of Benghazi brigades in Libya’s oil region draws mixed reactions – The Libya Observer

Benghazi Defense Brigades (BDB) launched early on Friday a surprise on Dignity Operation forces in the oil crescent region in central Libya and took control of Sidra port and Ras Lanuf Airport, in addition to Ben Jawad and Nofaliyatowns.

The attack is part of a military operation called Return to Benghazi aimed at facilitating the return of Benghazi IDPs to their city.

The operation was met with mixed reactions. In Tripoli and Misrata, demonstrations were held Friday evening to support the operation.

Libyas Grand Mufti Sheikh Sadiq Al-Gharyani hailed the Return to Benghazi Operation and said on Tanasuh TV that victory is looming, calling residents of east Libya to join BDB to liberate Benghazi from the grip of Dignity Operation.

The operation was also praised by the Union of Benghazi IDPs. It said the operation aims to break the siege on Ganfouda and free the trapped families in there.

Libyan Elders Council and Tajoura elders have also welcomed the operation.

On the other hand, the UN-proposed Presidency Council condemned the operation and confirmed that it has no links to the fighting in the crescent region.

The Defense Ministry of UN-proposed government called all parties in the crescent region to stop fighting and said it would send a force to the region if both parties refused to comply with the cease fire call.

Tobruk-based House of Representatives also condemned the operation and hold local parties and some foreign countries, which it did not name, responsible for the attack.

See the original post:
Military operation of Benghazi brigades in Libya's oil region draws mixed reactions - The Libya Observer

With Libya’s transition paralyzed, a would-be premier projects power in Tripoli – Reuters

TRIPOLI In a cluster of luxury residences that survived Tripoli's battles almost unscathed, a self-declared defender of Libya's revolution has set up base as one of three claimants to the country's premiership.

A handful of guards and two armored white SUVs are stationed at Khalifa Ghwell's compound, and loyalists control surrounding roads with checkpoints and patrols.

Few consider Ghwell a serious contender for power. But in recent weeks the ex-prime minister has bolstered his presence at his base four km from the heart of the capital, in an increasingly brazen challenge aimed at undermining a U.N.-backed government that was meant to shepherd Libya toward peace.

Six years after the NATO-backed uprising that toppled Muammar Gaddafi's over 40-year rule, Ghwell's reappearance and his ability to mobilize powerful armed support have set the capital on edge, leading to some unusually violent fighting.

They expose Libya's deep fractures and how little traction Western efforts have gained in stabilizing the oil-producing desert state.

Libya remains a byword for chaos. The North African country has more than doubled oil output to 700,000 barrels per day in recent months, though this is well below the more than 1.6 million bpd it pumped before Libya's 2011 uprising.

That recovery and gains against Islamic State are fragile. The south and west are criss-crossed with smuggler routes, and armed brigades skirmish in turf wars on the streets of Tripoli.

In the capital, Prime Minister Fayez Seraj's U.N.-endorsed Government of National Accord (GNA) has drifted half-formed, largely unable to provide services to despairing citizens or exert authority even on its doorstep, as Libya's neighbors and Western states scramble to salvage their plan.

In the east of the country another premier also lays claim to power from the city of Bayda, backed by a parliament that sits in Tobruk, near the border with Egypt. It won international recognition but is now largely inactive.

They are aligned to an anti-Islamist figurehead, Khalifa Haftar, who is based in the town of Marj and whose forces have long been fighting for control of the nearby city of Benghazi. Haftar has been nominating military governors and threatening to move on Tripoli, emboldened by support from Egypt, the United Arab Emirates, and Russia.

Haftar's forces control most of Libya's oil, and cooperate with the Tripoli-based National Oil Corporation despite earlier attempts by eastern factions to sell oil independently.

FRACTURED LANDSCAPE

Divisions that flared into conflict across Libya in 2014 have not healed. Ghwell himself was installed by an Islamist-leaning alliance of former rebels that won control of Tripoli that year from groups aligned with Haftar. Their alliance then fractured, complicating an already messy political landscape.

Since the GNA stalled, Ghwell has been trying to rebuild his position with support from his home city of Misrata.

"What has this government achieved during this year?" Ghwell asked during a rare interview with Reuters, speaking in a wood-paneled office in a complex built by Gaddafi for favored functionaries.

"Unfortunately the international community sees the results of their support. We thank them for their work but the result is very negative. If they persist with this, nothing will change."

In an example of the bewildering nature of the country's post-revolt politics, he says he is now in contact with the eastern-based government aligned with Haftar, trying to strike a deal over the heads of the GNA that they both oppose.

But he says if Haftar tried to seize power in the capital, he would be outgunned. "We are ready for this," Ghwell said.

A year ago, Ghwell tried and failed to prevent the GNA leadership from even getting to Tripoli. He shut down the air space over Tripoli, but was outmaneuvered when Seraj traveled from Tunisia by ship in late March, landing at a naval base that is still his headquarters.

Ghwell accuses the GNA of trying to impose itself without popular backing, creating further layers of institutional confusion and overseeing a steady decline in living standards.

His entourage moved into the residential complex, and a parliament building where a pro-GNA body had been sitting, in October. In January, he announced he had taken back a number of ministries. He says he now has authority over "about six", including defense, justice and "50 percent of the interior ministry" a claim the GNA dismisses. They say Ghwell makes fleeting appearances at unoccupied official buildings.

LIMITS TO GOVERNMENT

But the limits of GNA control are clear. Its nine leaders, or Presidential Council (PC), were meant to unite Libya's political currents and its regions, east, west and south, but have often amplified those splits.

Two members with ties to Haftar and his allies have almost entirely boycotted the council, and others have frequently clashed, issuing contradictory statements and making apparently unilateral appointments, often announced late at night.

Seraj's frequent absences at international meetings and summits have fueled criticism that his government is dependent on foreign support and barely visible on the ground.

Western powers eagerly promoted the GNA as a partner, and the PC gradually tried to put its ministers to work. But without the endorsement of the eastern parliament - a key step in the U.N.-backed political accord - they are left in limbo.

Seraj has claimed credit for victory over Islamic State in its former stronghold of Sirte and for boosting oil production, but both were driven by forces largely outside his control.

The international community has coaxed a reluctant central bank to release funding to the GNA, which has in turn struggled to operate. Few resources trickle down, even to ministers.

Iman Ben Younis, a minister in charge of building and reforming state institutions, has just three employees, all of them volunteers at her office in the prime ministerial building.

"LOSING FAITH"

Otman Gajiji, who resigned as head of Libya's municipal elections committee because his staff had not been paid for two years, said mayors who backed the GNA were fed up.

"They're losing faith, some of them have informed me that they will withdraw their support," he said.

Ahmed Maiteeg, a deputy prime minister, says the PC has some spending power after the central bank recently releasing budget money. He said he was untroubled by Ghwell, whose instructions "don't go further than his secretary".

Maiteeg said the GNA's role was to "maintain the peace" between Libyans, and brigades of former rebels that divide up the capital some with semi-official status will be given economic opportunities and return to civilian life.

But engaging armed groups is not easy. Militiamen kidnap civilians for ransom, force banks to hand over cash, and steal electricity to save their neighborhoods from power cuts.

In recent battles armed groups have coalesced into pro- and anti-GNA factions, the latter spurred on in weekly addresses by Libya's grand mufti, an influential figure for some brigades.

The anti-GNA side was recently reinforced by a convoy of military vehicles that arrived in the capital from Misrata, sparking fresh clashes. Last week they were blamed for firing on Seraj's motorcade as it passed close to Ghwell's compound.

(Writing by Aidan Lewis,; editing by Patrick Markey and Peter Millership)

CAIRO Al Qaeda confirmed on Thursday that a U.S.-led coalition drone strike had killed senior leader Abu al-Khayr al-Masri in Syria.

WASHINGTON/ADEN, Yemen The United States said it carried out more than 20 precision strikes in Yemen targeting al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula on Thursday, in what appeared to be the first major operations against the group since a January raid by U.S. commandos.

GENEVA Syrian government negotiator Bashar al-Ja'afari accused the Saudi-backed opposition on Thursday of holding peace talks hostage because of their reported refusal to unify under one opposition delegation and include terrorism on agenda.

See the original post:
With Libya's transition paralyzed, a would-be premier projects power in Tripoli - Reuters