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ROMEThe ongoing migrant boat crisis, which has lured more than 600,000 mostly sub-Saharan Africans to Italy and killed more than 10,000 since 2014, has reached a crucial turning point.

Over the weekend, three of the eight major nongovernmental organizations with migrant rescue operations announced they would suspend their search and rescue operations out of fear the Libyan coast guard would shoot at them. The suspensions come at a time when migrant arrivals in Italy have dropped around 70 percent compared to last year.

Make no mistake, the Libyans threat is real. In July, they fired shots in the air over a Spanish rescue vessel, warning it away from their territorial waters. And late last week, Libyas navy announced that it would establish its own search and rescue zone off its international waters. Any smuggler boats with migrants would be rescued and taken back to Libyan ports. Likewise, any foreign vessels breaching that new search and rescue perimeter would be seen as aggressors and dealt with accordingly, Libyan coast guard spokesman Ayoub Qassem told Reuters.

The Italian Maritime Rescue Coordination Center in Rome, which coordinates all distress calls and rescues in the Mediterranean, warned the rescue boats of increased security risks at the hands of the Libyan navy. In other words, they couldnt promise that the Libyans wouldnt shoot their ships.

In exchange for stopping the flow of smugglers boats, Libya has been promised a series of rewards, from investments in infrastructure to basic credibility for its fragile officially recognized government. In fact, not even a day passed between the first announcement of an NGO suspending its mission and Italys seeming call for funds to help the fragmented state.

We need a significant, I repeat a significant European economic investment in Libya and in Africa, Italys interior minister, Angelino Alfano, said on Sunday, calling on Europe to reward Libya for its part in stemming the flow of people into Italy.

The crackdown on migration from the Libyan side in exchange for economic rewards is highly reminiscent of a similar deal Italys former prime minister, Silvio Berlusconi, made with Libyas former ruler, Muammar Gaddafi, in 2008 when Gaddafi had threatened to open the spigot and turn Europe black if Europe did not take him seriously.

Italy, then as now, was on the front line of the crisis and promised investments of around 200 million a year into the country. So pleased were the Libyans that they watermarked Berlusconis photo in their passport pages. And the flow of African migrants into Europe stopped quite abruptly, almost exactly as it has now. When Gaddafi was deposed and later killed, the migrant flows picked up again.

Just as they were a decade ago, Libya and Italy have been under increased pressure from Europe to do their part to stem the flow of migrants. And, borrowing a page from the history books, Italy once again dangled a carrot to get Libya to cooperate, a move likely made even more urgent for Rome by the fact that Italy will go to the polls in early 2017 to elect a new leader.

In May, Italy gave the Libyan coast guard four repaired patrol boats and helped train their crews for search and rescue missions. In early August, Italy sent two warships to aid the Libyan coast guard in stopping the migrant boats. On Sunday, Alfano applauded the Libyan threats toward the NGO ships, calling the move an end to the Wild West of migration.

The new measures prompted Doctors Without Borders, Save the Children, and German Sea Eye to at least temporarily ground their rescue vessels. Several others have had to scale back their operations and change their strategy to stay clear of the Libyan off-limits zone, which means migrants have little chance of getting through alive.

The recent developments represent another worrying element of an increasingly hostile environment for lifesaving rescue operations, Brice de le Vingne, Doctors Without Borders director of operations said in a statement. European states and Libyan authorities are jointly implementing a blockade on the ability of people to seek safety. This is an unacceptable assault on peoples lives and dignity.

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The threats toward the NGOs, coupled with a new code of conduct established by the Italian government that requires the NGO boats to allow armed Italian officials onboard, is working to get the rescue ships out of the water, though that does not necessarily equate to stopping smuggler boats from leaving Libyan shores. The International Office for Migration estimates that more than half a million people are currently in Libya hoping to get to Europe by sea. With fewer charity boats to rescue them, there will surely be an increase in fatalities at sea, since smugglers will undoubtedly find it hard to give up their lucrative business.

Those migrants who are rescued by the Libyan authorities are put into inhumane detention centers run by militia groups where they face torture, slavery, and rape. Bullet wounds and unplanned pregnancy were common among those rescued at sea who spent any time at all in Libya. The United Nations Refugee Agency UNHCR special envoy for the Central Mediterranean route Vincent Cochetel called the Libyan detention centers just prisons, some controlled by the authorities, some by militants and traffickers with terrible conditions to which all migrants who disembark on the Libyan coasts are subjected.

Despite the dramatic change in course, the migrants are clearly still migrating. Last week, a rubber dingy with African migrants landed on a tourist beach in Spain, which has seen a four-fold increase in migrant arrivals since those to Italy started decreasing. With so many people on the move, solving one problem almost certainly creates another.

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Libya Says It Will Shoot Refugee Rescue Boats on Sight - Daily Beast

Normally, a call for elections is a sign of a vibrant democracy. In Libya, however, the current rush to hold a vote within a few months from nowa proposal that has been advanced by everyone from United Arab Emirates-backed warlords to the United Nationswill condemn the Libyan people to a future of apartheid and instability. The danger is enshrined in the way Libya holds elections: the current law absurdly gives minority voters more power over the majority, effectively disenfranchising large swaths of the Libyan population and permitting extremist elements and those loyal to the unpopular former regime of Muammar al-Qaddafi to win a disproportionate share of Parliament.

Despite these serious defects, partisan groups from within and outside of Libya have called for elections as a way of escaping the UN-sponsored dialoguewhich has failed to provide security, stability, and a legitimate governmentand hope to take advantage of the status quo in order to see their own influence increase. Fayez al-Sarraj, the head of the failing internationally-backed Government of National Accord (GNA), has called for elections to take place in March of next year, while Aref Nayed, an oligarch who is running for president and is heavily backed by the UAE, has called for elections to occur within a few months. Non-Libyans are eager for elections as well. The UNs Mission in Libya has been in secret talks with major Libyan players, including politicians in the coastal city of Misrata, while newly-elected French President Emmanuel Macron hosted a meeting last month between Libyan warlord Khalifa Haftar and Sarraj, issuing a statement that called for speedy elections. In a country where factions cannot even agree on how to keep the lights on for their citizens, it seems doubtful that elections will bring peace and stability.

The reason for this rush to hold elections is simple. The current political elites wish to maintain their advantage over other candidates, which is best done while they are incumbents. The political machines of

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The Case Against Elections in Libya - Foreign Affairs

The UN envoy to Libya, Ghassan Salame, vowed Tuesday to be unbiased and to find a new mechanism for dialogue among the Libyan conflicting parties so that they reach a consensus to amend the Libyan Political Agreement (LPA.)

As he arrived in Misrata and met with the municipal council officials Tuesday, Salame expressed respect for the role of the city in fighting IS militants as well as the sacrifices the city's residents made to achieve stability and security across Libya.

Meanwhile, Misrata municipal council urged Salame to press the House of Representatives (HoR) to endorse the LPA and to speed up the passing of the polls law that would allow Libyans to cast their ballots for the constitution or against it, thus paving the way for parliamentary and presidential elections.

Salame met the HoR's Speaker Aqilah Saleh in Qubba city in eastern Libya on August 06, when he stressed the need for resolving the Libyan crisis.

While on August 05, Salame met in Tripoli the Head of the UN-proposed government's Presidential Council Fayez Al-Sirraj as well as the Head of the High Council of State Abdelrahman Al-Sweihli.

"Libya's sovereignty is not up for negotiation and neither is its independence and unity. I will try not to be the reason for more oppression in Libya and I will support the implementation of the LPA." Salame commented after the then-meetings in Tripoli.

The UN Secretary-General, Antonio Guterres, appointed Ghassan Salame as the new Head of the UNSMIL to replace Martin Kobler.

The rest is here:
UN envoy to Libya vows neutrality toward crisis as he visits Misrata - The Libya Observer

At the 29th African Union (AU) summit in Addis Ababa last month, the AU decided to accelerate its efforts to help negotiate a peace deal in Libya. This came as the AU was being sidelined by other international actors such as France. To implement its decision to convene a national dialogue of all role players, the AU has to speedily establish technical and analytical support teams, as well as raise the funds to cope with the rigours of brokering peace in Libyas complex politics.

France last month mediated a ceasefire between Libyan Prime Minister Fayez al-Sarraj (who is backed by the United Nations [UN]) and eastern commander General Khalifa Haftar that was signed on 25 July 2017. The Paris deal followed similar efforts by Italy and Egypt to strengthen the failing Libyan Political Agreement, mediated by the UN in December 2015.

Meanwhile, the AU is yet to deliver on its July 2016 resolve to initiate a national dialogue on reconciliation for Libya.

As during the 2011 conflict and the ousting of Muammar Gaddafi, the AU again seems to be sidelined in the mediation efforts. While poor coordination and limited influence on the ground affect the AUs ability to lead Libyas peace process, its neutral stance in the ongoing war does make it a reliable mediator in this crisis.

Poor record of inclusivity in Libya

In Paris, al-Sarraj and Haftar agreed to observe a ceasefire and hold elections as soon as possible. The deal is an achievement for newly elected French President Emmanuel Macron, who had pledged to make Libya a priority during his election campaign. A peaceful Libya is key to addressing the migration and terror threats from the region.

However, the countrys bitterly contested politics will test the viability of the deal. While the peace deal is expected to be part of a broader peace process led by Ghassan Salame, the UN Special Representative and head of the UN Support Mission for Libya, it failed to consult and include other powerful local actors who can make or mar its implementation.

Notably, the self-declared government of Khalifa Ghwell in Tripoli, the Tobruk Parliament and other key warring leaders were not part of the deal. This criticism also holds true for the mediation efforts that led to the signing of the political agreement of December 2015.

Most Libyan stakeholders agree that the political agreement facilitated by the former UN Special Representative for Libya, Martin Kobler, was hastily done, at the expense of its sustainability. This became clear during extensive consultations by the AU High-Level Committee on Libya led by President Denis Sassou Nguesso of the Republic of Congo. In a summary of the discussions, seen by the PSC Report, the Libyan stakeholders condemned the haste with which Mr Martin Kobler managed the negotiation process and the signing of the political agreement, in disregard of the deadline requested in order to render this text more inclusive.

Absence of tribal and religious leaders from the formal negotiations

The Libyan peace process is reminiscent of the situation in Somalia in the early 1990s, when many local actors such as community and religious leaders were left out of peace talks.

The major focus of international actors in Libya has been the contested political leadership. Yet the overall process marginalises the tribal leaders who provide some form of governance to about 70% of Libya. Some of these tribal and religious leaders have united under the National Movement for Libya (NML) to advance reconciliation and facilitate ceasefires among militia groups.

In April this year about 60 tribal leaders from southern Libya signed a deal in Rome to cease hostilities and combat illegal migrant smugglers. These local leaders, as well as civil society, have a key role to play in the overall political peace process in Libya.

What is certain among Libyan stakeholders is the consensus that the political agreement of 2015 needs urgent revision to broaden the spectrum of Libyan actors.

Can the AU lead the peace process?

At the 29th AU summit the AU Assembly reaffirmed its intention to convene a Libyan national reconciliation dialogue in Addis Ababa, at a date yet to be determined. Since the July 2016 summit in Kigali, the AU has conveyed its interest in initiating such a dialogue, but it has not been able to do so. A number of other talks have meanwhile taken place, including the recent mediations led by Italy and France.

Questions are now being asked over the AUs ability and political clout to intervene in Libya.

Firstly, some Libyan stakeholders, including Sarraj, regret the fact that the various AU initiatives in Libya are incoherent. The efforts of the High-Level Committee, the High Representative for Libya, former Tanzanian president Jakaya Kikwete and current AU Chairperson Guinean President Alpha Conde are criticised for their lack of coordination and their inability to initiate or convene a national dialogue. At the 29th summit the AU recognised this challenge and said it would establish a coordinating mechanism to address it.

Secondly, even if AU activities are harmonised, the continental body arguably cannot influence the warring factions in Libya because it is not a prominent actor in either the realpolitik or the war in Libya. Although the AUs non-involvement in Libyas ongoing civil war counts in its favour, experience shows that the actors that manage to get Libyan stakeholders to the table are those that support either one or the other side of the Libyan divide. This includes the UN, the ultimate legitimising authority with considerable capacity to influence the situation in Libya.

Indeed, many Libyan actors are willing to be consulted by the AU, which can help to legitimise their political interests and get these out into the public domain. But they are also cognisant of the continental bodys limited influence on the ground, especially in terms of providing the necessary carrots and sticks to spur actors to action.

Opportunities for AU mediation

Despite these limitations, the AU should maximise its advantage as a neutral body a reputation it still holds even though some of its member states (such as Egypt) have taken sides in the conflict. The AU can do this by mobilising powerful role players, including the UN, to support its efforts to mediate between the Libyan actors.

The AU belongs to a Quartet on Libya, which was established on 18 March to coordinate international efforts to promote the political process in Libya. The other members of the Quartet are the European Union, the League of Arab States and the UN. The Quartet seems to have replaced the International Contact Group for Libya (ICG-L) that was established by the AU Peace and Security Council on 23 September 2014. The ICG-Ls last meeting was in January 2016.

At the Quartets second meeting on 23 May, its members acknowledged the AUs important consultations with stakeholders earlier this year. The AU has to build on this to gain the support of the Quartet to mediate between the various Libyan factions.

The AUs consultations give the continental body an edge in terms of better understanding the Libyan crisis and the interests of the various stakeholders. For instance, the High-Level Committee consultation revealed al-Sarrajs willingness to abdicate power if the political process requires it. Aguila Saleh, the President of the Tobruk Parliament, wants a reduction in the number of Presidential Council members, from nine to three. Haftar, on the other hand, wants the Presidential Council of nine to be replaced with a Council of State consisting of three members, namely the current president, the speaker of the Tobruk Parliament and the armys general commander. This would entail a Council of State consisting of al-Sarraj, Aguila and himself.

While these interests may not be solutions to the Libyan crisis, they are starting points for inclusive negotiations.

More capacity needed

At the 29th AU summit the AU had decided to expand its representation at the Quartet to include the representatives of the High-Level Committee and the High Representative for Libya, which is currently Kikwete. This should ensure the AUs coordinated response in pushing for a mediatory role and for sustainable solutions.

To realise its ambition of enabling national reconciliation in Libya, the AU has to speedily establish technical and analytical support teams and ample resources to cope with the rigours of brokering such a complex peace.

It should also coordinate the efforts of Libyas neighbours including Egypt, Algeria and Morocco which have thus far played significant but disparate roles in the conflict.

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Where is the AU in Libya's peace process? - ReliefWeb

Ghassan Salama replaced Martin Kobler as UNs Libya envoy earlier this month

home > world, middle east 15.08.2017 Ali H. M.Abo Rezeg

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By Walid Abdullah

TRIPOLI, Libya

UN envoy to Libya Ghassan Salama arrived in Libyas northwestern city of Misurata on Tuesday on an unannounced visit.

Without giving further details, the UNs mission in Libya tweeted that Salama had arrived at Misurata airport to meet with political and community leaders.

Last week, the UN envoy visited the city of Tobruk, where he met with Aqila Salih, speaker of Libyas Tobruk-based parliament.

Salama also paid a visit to Libyan capital Tripoli, where he met with Abdul Rahman al-Suwaheli, head of the UN-backed unity governments presidential council.

Salama is the UNs sixth special envoy to Libya. He was appointed to the position earlier this month, replacing Martin Kobler, who had filled the post from October 2015 until late July 2017.

Libya has been wracked by turmoil since 2011, when a bloody popular uprising ended with the ouster and death of longtime leader Muammar Gaddafi.

In the aftermath of Gaddafis departure, the oil-rich country's long-simmering social and political divisions have yielded three rival seats of government and a host of competing militia groups.

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New UN envoy in Libya's Misurata for unannounced visit - Anadolu Agency