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Since the Libyan civil war began, the question hovering over everything was will Russia get involved? The answer to that question came when the chief of Libyas UN-created Government of National Accord (GNA), the so-called Prime Minister Fayez Serraj, met with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov in Moscow.

Having stayed aloof from a messy civil war now into its third year, Russia has decided to effectively replace the void left by the US and become the chief powerbroker not only in Libya but the entire Middle East and North African region. The bad news for Serraj is that the beneficiary as far as Libya is concerned is likely to be his big rival, Field Marshall Khalifa Haftar, commander of the powerful Libyan National Army (LNA). The imagined role in Libya of the EU and the UK is just that: imaginary and delusional.

The admirable efforts of British Ambassador to Libya Peter Millett in trying shuttle diplomacy between stakeholders in Tripoli, Misrata and Haftar and his LNA in the east have achieved nothing but to underline that its Moscow and Washington that is calling the shots. Sadly London has become as irrelevant as Brussels.

It was Haftar that Moscow turned to in January, inviting him for military talks aboard its aircraft carrier, Admiral Kuznetsov, cruising off Libya. And equally Haftar was happy to be courted by Moscow. The talks included a full dress military parade and band playing the Libyan national anthem on the deck, underlining for all to see who Russia wants to do business with.

There is no doubt that Russias policy on Libya is growing stronger and in a positive way for all involved. Moscow is not only talking with all parties but also trying to find a way for the Tripoli government to acquiesce to Haftar and vice-versa. We are carrying out consistent work with both key centres of power in Libya, said the spokesperson for the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Maria Zakharova.

Moscow is not wrong. Haftars battle against extremists in Libya has made him a national hero among the vast majority of the population and brought big victories. Haftars army has almost crushed a galaxy of fanatical militants who had terrorised Benghazi, and killed the US ambassador there in 2012. Most significantly perhaps, last September Haftar captured the countrys main oil ports, giving him control of the eastern oil fields the ones that matter representing at least two-thirds of all the oil in the country.

Already Egypt has given Haftar strong support, as has France, which provided special forces to work with his army in the east of the country.

Russia also senses an opportunity. It has all but won the Syrian civil war, cementing an alliance with Syrias president Bashir Assad and outflanking American efforts to support the rebels

With the oil ticket in his pocket, and rising popular support in a country weary of endless militia skirmishes, rather than decisive battles, Haftar now clearly holds the keys to power.

That much was made even clearer last month when Egypt tried to become peace broker, inviting Haftar to meet with Sarraj in Cairo. Both men showed up, but Haftar said no to a meeting, leaving Serraj stuck in a hotel room with a phone that refused to ring.

There is a reason why Haftar saw no reason to talk to Sarraj: for just as Haftars power is rising, so Serrajs is falling.

His Government of National Accord (GNA), created by the United Nations, is a joke. It is not a government, having failed to win control of key institutions like the Central Bank (CBL) and National Oil Corporation (NOC). It most certainly has failed to win any of the key Libyan tribes. And there is no accord in fact, Serraj is marooned with his presidency in a Tripoli naval base, because militias are the law in the Libyan capital. The rest of his time he spends in Tunis.

Worse, for Sarraj, those militias are fighting with each other, with many backing yet another government in Tripoli, the Salvation Government, in furious street battles recently with tanks and heavy artillery that have turned parts of the capital into a real war zone. Little wonder Haftar refused to meet a man incapable of controlling even his own city.

Officially, Russia takes the side of all Libyans, not one faction, with Lavrov saying: We would like to see Libya a united and prosperous nation relying on stable government institutions and a viable army. But Russia also senses an opportunity. Already it has all but won the Syrian civil war, cementing an alliance with Syrias president Bashir Assad and outflanking American efforts to support the rebels.

Now it is poised to do the same in Libya, in contrast to the US, Britain and Italy who have been relentlessly backing the GNA.

But talk of a super-power rift between Moscow and Washington may be premature: the Trump administrations key policy advisor Steve Bannon has long campaigned against the Muslim Brotherhood, which is the main supporter of the GNA, and the White House is expected, like the Kremlin, to get behind Haftar, a move that would help also in its objective of doing business with Russia.

Even Britain, arch supporter of Serraj, is having to rethink. Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson now says a place must be found for Haftar in Libyas government.

Meanwhile, on March 2, the Parliamentary Foreign Affairs Committee published a report on the UKs relations with Russia, urging the foreign office to conduct meaningful dialogue with the Kremlin.

The committees chairman, Crispin Blunt, said: Refusal to engage with Russia is not a viable, long-term policy option.

Hes right: Moscow is spreading its wings in the Middle East and North Africa. Its desire to move into Libya was emphasised in another way last week, when Rosneft, the state oil giant, signed a deal to invest heavily with Libyas state oil corporation (East NOC). After years in the wings, Russia has finally arrived in Libya (and the region), and western powers are slowly becoming aware of that fact.

MENA countries are more and more looking forthepower broking role to betaken up by Moscow rather than the US or UN and certainly not by the UK or EU. A new 21st century reality.

Richard Galustian is a British political and security advisor based in MENA countries for nearly 40 years.

Originally posted here:
Libya: enter Russia - Times of Malta

By Kevin Baxter and Biman Mukherji

Oil prices made slight gains Tuesday amid supply disruptions in Libya, but lingering concerns over Chinese growth and U.S. stockpiles kept prices within their recent trading corridor.

The May contract for global crude benchmark Brent was up 0.1% at $56.12 a barrel while April deliveries of its U.S. counterpart West Texas Intermediate gained 0.2% to $53.37.

Libya's two largest ports have been shut due to fresh clashes, cutting output by over 50,000 barrels a day. Meanwhile in Gabon, a majority of oil workers agreed to go on a general strike, notes an ANZ Bank report.

Monday's 2017 annual outlook report from the Paris-based International Energy Agency is also being interpreted as bullish in the short-term by most observers.

The IEA said that oil demand growth is expected to average about 1.2 million barrels a day between now and 2022 and should bring the global surplus down, aided by the current output cuts being implemented by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries along with some producers outside the cartel.

Olivier Jakob from the Switzerland-based Petromatrix said that the majority of the global demand increases will be met by non-OPEC supply over the next two years according to the IEA.

Speculative financial investors have retreated from the market in the past week, despite oil's recent price stability. Germany's Commerzbank said contracts expecting a rise in oil prices, known as net long positions, in Brent had fallen by 41,000 last week, while in WTI they fell by 37,000.

"In absolute terms, however, 469,300 contracts in Brent and 368,600 contracts in WTI still constitute a very high level," analysts from Commerzbank said.

Meanwhile, Russia's energy minister said Monday that the nation is gradually reducing its oil production in line with an agreement reached with OPEC late last year and should be fully compliant by the end of April.

Russia had agreed to reduce its output by 300,000 barrels a day as part of a broad effort by OPEC and other producers to boost prices, but is behind target on meeting that commitment.

Nymex reformulated gasoline blendstock for April--the benchmark gasoline contract--rose 1.1% to $1.69 a gallon while diesel futures gained 0.5% to $1.61.

ICE gasoil for March changed hands at $492.5 a metric ton, up 0.5% from Monday's settlement.

Write to Kevin Baxter at Kevin.Baxter@wsj.com and Biman Mukherji at biman.mukherji@wsj.com

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

March 07, 2017 07:41 ET (12:41 GMT)

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Oil Edges Higher on Libya Supply Disruptions - Morningstar.com

When NATO decided to impose regime change in Libya, many nations in Europe had visions of a massive influx of oil imports from the Mediterranean coast, with several European companies, most predominantly Italys Eni, investing heavily in an oil industry which has only intermittently managed exports amid fighting.

Today, the fighting is picking up again, with the Islamist Benghazi Defense Brigade launching the latest attack against the main oil export terminals at Sidra and Ras Lanuf, capturing the area, and sparking a new round of fighting with Gen. Khalifa Hifter and his self-proclaimed Libyan National Army.

Hifter, a former CIA asset, had only captured the area himself a few months prior, expelling Petrol Guards loyal to the unity government from the area. The Petrol Guards were short-handed because they launched an offensive against the coastal city of Sirte.

US, British and French Ambassadors have urged calm in the area around the export site, citing concerns that the fighting could seriously damage the infrastructure and cut off exports for the long-term, until European companies pony up more money to repair it again.

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Heavy Fighting Reported at Key Libya Oil Terminals, Hindering Exports - Antiwar.com

National Dialogue only way out of political stalemate in Libya Egypt insists after LNA oil crescent reverse Libya Herald Egypt has insisted that dialogue is the only way Libya can extract itself from the current political crisis. Resuming the UN-brokered Libya Dialogue was of critical importance and would help safeguard the interests of its people, Egypt's National ... and more »

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National Dialogue only way out of political stalemate in Libya Egypt insists after LNA oil crescent reverse - Libya Herald

7 hours ago.

True heroes, generous hearts: these are the Libyan archaeologists who, with Daesh (the Arabic acronym of ISIS) at their heels, have accomplished the feat of completing the excavation of the Haua Fteah cave in Cyrenaica, one of the most important prehistoric sites of all Africa. When, in 2013, the team of international researchers involved at the site was forced to suspend work, nine Libyan archeologists two women and seven men successfully completed the excavation by themselves, securing its secrets for posterity. Thus the history of human population along the North African coast over the last 100 thousand years can now be written.

Haua Fteah is, in fact, the largest karst cave in the Mediterranean (measuring 80 x 20 metres) and is open to the sea a short distance from the city of Susa, the ancient Apollonia. It is a sort of natural hangar, inhabited uninterruptedly by humans from prehistoric times until the present. Investigated for the first time between 1951 and 1955 by Charles McBurney an archaeologist from the University of Cambridge, the same university resumed the research in 2007 under the direction of Professor Graeme Barker, in collaboration with the Libyan Department of Antiquities and an international team of scholars, including myself.

Beginning at the earliest levels, at about 15 metres below the current surface and relating to the Middle Palaeolithic, the cave takes us on a breathtaking journey through time. We first move through the levels dating back to 70,000 years ago where the only human remains found so far at the site two fragments of Homo sapiens lower jaw were uncovered: a moving testimony to the arrival of our ancestors along the North African coast.

We can then examine the layers of the Upper Paleolithic on our way to the Neolithic, when the first species of domesticated animals and plants of the Levantine regions made their appearance in North Africa. Continuing our journey towards the surface, through layers dating from the Classical Period and thence more recent ones, we arrive at the present day. Like a wonderful freeze frame which has lasted thousands of years, the cave is still in use to this very day, as a livestock shelter, by families of shepherds. It is greatly respected by the local population.

Despite the instability that has followed the collapse, in 2011, of the Gaddafi regime in Libya, we continued to work at Haua Fteah albeit with considerable difficulty until September 2012 when the US Ambassador to Libya, Chris Stevens, was assassinated in Benghazi. The terrible news reached us while we were actually digging in the cave. We were struck by a deep sense of loss, but also with concern for our own safety. We left Libya a few days later and, after months of indecision and another very brief campaign in 2013, Graeme Barker reluctantly decided to suspend the excavation. Daesh had definitively taken control of the city of Derna, just 60 km east of Haua Fteah, and the risk to our safety was really too great.

However, our Libyan colleagues continued to monitor the massive open trench, and a short while later they informed us that its walls, exposed since 2007, were not going to last for long. To safeguard and bring to a conclusion the work of years, the excavation had to be completed as soon as possible. We can do it ourselves, said Ahmad Saad Emrage, archaeologist at the University of Benghazi. We can still work safely enough. We will be accurate and fast. So, without any delay, the command of operations fell to Ahmad and his team of local archaeologists: Fadl Abdulazeez, Akram Alwarfalli, Moataaz Azwai, Saad Buyadem, Badr Shamata, Asma Sulaiman, Reema Sulaiman and Aiman Alareefi.

Who are these Fantastic 9? They are, first and foremost, passionate archaeologists and serious professionals. Ahmad and Fadl are the fathers of the group, always ready to guide and encourage the younger ones; then there is Moataz, the tireless gentle giant; then two young daredevils, Akram and Saad, who, after a day of excavation, love to dive from the beautiful cliffs of Lathrun; also Badr and Aiman, who make sure the rest of the troop always has tea in their cups and sheesha to puff on; and then the two sisters, Aasma and Reema, who have iron will. Nine different individuals, nine different histories, united by an immense passion for their homeland, Libya, and by a single unwavering desire: to save their country and its history.

The first excavation campaign began on May 9, 2015, and was supposed to last for two months, but it was suspended after only four weeks. Ahmad told me:

After work started with no particular problem, the situation had rapidly deteriorated. Local sources had reported to us that Daesh militants had recently been seen in the Susa area. When passing through the town we would often hear gunfire and screams. We were afraid, but we did not want to stop. During the raids against the Daesh positions in Derna, Libyan air force planes and helicopters flew over the cave. We were by no means certain that they were all aware of our presence in the area, and, for fear of being mistaken for terrorists, we would run to take shelter in the back of the cave every time we heard the noise of an approaching aircraft.

I remember one day when I was carrying the long plastic tube we used to store the stratigraphy drawings of the excavation over my shoulder; on hearing the sound of an approaching helicopter, Fadl grabbed the tube and threw it away from us, for fear it could be mistaken for a rocket launcher. We were extremely tense, and when the helicopter finally moved away, we looked at each other and burst into laughter.

We were increasingly afraid but we continued to work. One day, however, a friend came running, shouting that the night before he had seen masked men in the vicinity of the cave, almost certainly Daesh militiamen. And shortly afterwards the Susa police arrived and forced us to stop work. It was not easy to convince the boys that we could not go on. We can still do it they kept repeating well be even more careful and fast. Reluctantly, however, we collected the equipment and left the cave.

But that was not the end by any means. Two months later, thanks to the liberation of Derna from Daesh militia, the Fantastic 9 returned to the cave and finally managed to complete the excavation. Do not call us heroes, Ahmad exclaimed when I told him that I would recount their adventure. We just did what had to be done, as archaeologists and as Libyans. However, in a country like Libya that sees its archaeological heritage so dramatically at risk, our colleagues achievement was exceptional in its significance: it showed that the Libyans have not given up, that they wish to reclaim their own cultural heritage and determine its fate themselves.

Dr Giulio Lucarini is a Leverhulme Research Fellow at the McDonald Institute for Archaeological Research in Cambridge. Excavation at Haua Fteah has been principally funded by the European Research Council, with supplementary funding from the Society of Libyan Studies, the projects sponsor.

This article first appeared on Archeostorie. Journal of Public Archaeology.

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The fantastic nine of Libya: These archaelogists dodged ISIS threat to dig up an ancient cave - Scroll.in