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Russias war on Ukraine, launched by Russian President Vladimir Putin on 24 February, has raised many questions about its possible impact on the situation in Libya, where there are concerns that the country will return to a situation of political strife amid an escalating crisis.

Russia became a major player in Libya in 2019 when it became unofficially involved through the presence of Wagner Group forces in the country as a result of a cooperation agreement with the Tobruk Parliament in 2018.

The Ukraine war will likely cast an even darker shadow on political, security, and economic conditions in Libya if Moscow takes steps to defuse growing pressure by the West and the USs European allies by intervening further in the situation in the country.

Libya continues to be a source of concern in much of Europe in terms of migration, energy, and security issues.

The political crisis in Libya escalated in recent days after the Tobruk Parliament chose a new government led by Fathi Bashagha to succeed the national-unity government headed by Abdel-Hamid Dbeiba, who is refusing to hand over power before parliamentary elections areheld in late June to elect a new legislative body.

His opponents in the east of the country disagree with Dbeiba, as do his allies in the West who want to succeed him.

Presidential elections in Libya slated for 24 December 2021 were postponed amid much controversy, accompanied by the obstruction of the democratic process and despite the hopes of the more than 2.8 million registered Libyan voters.

The escalation of the political crisis and growing differences between the Libyan rivals regarding the new political arrangements approved by the parliament have raised fears of a renewed conflict that would take Libya back to square one in the conflict that has been raging in the country.

The Western powers and the UN have stressed the need to avoid any further escalation or steps that could destabilise the situation further and are urging the Libyan actors to move forward towards the elections.

Russia, which has been reluctant to support the Western-sponsored peace process in Libya, could sabotage the process by disrupting political, security, and economic conditions in this member state of the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC).

The Western powers are counting on benefiting from Libyas oil and gas production to help fill the shortfall resulting from the impeded access of Russian energy supplies to international markets.

Politically, Russia is unhappy about the overthrow of former Libyan leader Muammar Gaddafi in 2011 in an uprising supported by the Western powers and NATO. It objects to Western arrangements made in Libya since 2015 to settle the crisis based on the Skhirat Agreement, amendments resulting from the Berlin Process in 2020 and 2021, and the Paris Conference on Libya.

In December 2018, Libyan Parliamentary Speaker Aguila Saleh signed a cooperation agreement with the Russian parliament during a trip to Moscow that included security and military matters and gave Russia its first taste of political and then military involvement in Libya.

It then intervened militarily during the campaign of Khalifa Haftar, commander of the Libyan National Army, to take control of Tripoli in April 2019, becoming a key player on the Libyan scene.

Since the Tobruk Parliament chose Bashagha as the countrys new prime minister on 10 February, Russia has been the only global power that has welcomed this step and called on others to respect it.

This indicates an undeclared insistence by Russia to undermine the Wests efforts to resolve the Libyan crisis, especially since its position is inconsistent with its reservations about Bashagha becoming prime minister, since he had promised the West to undermine Russias influence in Libya and not allow Moscow to establish military bases there.

Russian advisers have been giving political support to Saleh, who admitted as much during a meeting with his kinsman at his headquarters in Al-Qubba last year. The support has also been confirmed in the regional and international news media.

Over recent years, Russia has worked on renewing its links to several key figures in the former regime, notably by supporting the return of Seif Al-Islam Gaddafi, son of the former Libyan leader, to the political scene.

Russia believes it will benefit from undermining the Wests political process in Libya through its connections with Saleh and Haftar, both of whom are supporters of the overthrown regime and have strong influence on the domestic scene.

The two men helped to facilitate Russias return to Libya to compete with the Western powers after Gaddafis overthrow.

On the military and economic fronts, Russia has the ability to shatter the fragile ceasefire in Libya and turn off the main economic taps there through its paramilitary Wagner Group, which includes professional mercenaries and security contractors who play a substantial role in providing support to Haftars National Army.

The latter controls vital regions in the south and centre of Libya and participates in protecting major oil fields and facilities.

As the political crisis escalates in the country, some players in Libya have threatened to cut the countrys oil exports, leading to a strongly worded response from the US and its European allies warning against any such moves.

This is being seen as an attempt to head off attempts to use energy as leverage to force Dbeiba to step down and hand over power to Bashagha.

On 24 February, the embassies of France, Germany, Italy, the UK, and US warned against sabotaging or politicising the work of the Libyan National Oil Corporation (NOC), saying this would threaten Libyas peace and security.

In a joint statement, the five embassies called on all the players in the country to respect the unity, integrity, and independence [of Libya] and maintain the non-political and technical nature of the NOC, since its uninterrupted operations will benefit all Libyans.

Russia is expected to work to replace current UN Special Adviser to the UN secretary-general on Libya Stephanie Williams and appoint a new head of the UN Support Mission in Libya.

It is also expected to continue to undermine the Wests current political process in Libya by insisting on a new and more inclusive process, in order to usher in supporters of the former regime to key seats at the negotiating table if efforts to push for elections next summer fail.

*A version of this article appears in print in the 17 March, 2022 edition ofAl-Ahram Weekly

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The Ukraine war and Libya - World - Al-Ahram Weekly - Ahram Online

In February, a 26-year-old Eritrean man lost his life when a fire broke out in the overcrowded Dhar El-Jebel detention centerin Zintan. We offered psychological support to survivors of the fire and distributed basic necessities to replace items they had lost, while reiterating our call for the end of arbitrary detention of migrants and refugees in Libya.

The vast majority of the estimated 650,000 migrants currently in Libya live on the streets, exposed to arbitrary arrest and detention, human trafficking, exploitation, and severe violence. Most of those detained are in clandestine prisons and warehouses run by people smugglers rather than official centers. In Bani Walid, our teams offered general health care and medical referrals to refugees and migrants who had escaped from captivity, and to victims of torture and trafficking.

Throughout 2020, refugees and migrants were subjected to numerous violent attacks; for example, at disembarkation points where the Libyan coastguard forcibly returns those who try to flee. On July 28, our teams responded with medical and psychological care after a shooting at a disembarkation site in Khoms that left three teenagers dead.

Tuberculosis (TB) care is another focus of our activities in Libya. Our teams work in three TB facilities: two in Tripoli and one in Misrata, a 17-bed clinic that we opened in March.

Read this article:
Libya | Our Work & How to Help - Doctors Without Borders (MSF-USA)

TRIPOLI-

The pressure exerted by Russia to appoint a new UN envoy to Libya to succeed Jan Kubis could signal the start of the countdown for the end of mission of the UN Secretary-General special advisor, Stephanie Williams, in Libya.

Williams, who has been acting since last November as the de facto UN envoy to Libya, has not pulled off any notable achievements since her return to the Libyan scene in her new capacity, last November.

In particular, she was unable to ensure the holding of elections on their scheduled date of December 24, hence disappointing most Libya stakeholders who had counted on her ability to pressure the various protagonists into making needed compromises, using her knowledge of the Libyan scene to deliver effective results on the ground.

Despite her insistence on the importance of the elections for ending Libyas continued crisis, the December vote was eventually cancelled, which punctured the halo around the Iron Lady, as Williams was at times called in diplomatic circles.

The high expectations stemmed from her long experience as US charg d'affaires in Tripoli and later as the deputy of former UN envoy Ghassan Salame.

Some Libyans have even blamed her for the electoral fiasco, although the reasons for that impasse are much more complex.

After the aborted vote, Williams was unable to prevent the emergence of a new political divide in the country. The recent elections and constitutional initiatives, which she launched after parliament gave a vote of confidence to the new Fathi Bashagha government, have added to the confusion, as her proposals did not elicit enough interest among political players, especially in the eastern region.

The Security Council is supposed to extend the United Nations political mission in Libya by the end of April, a deadline that coincides with the expiry of Stephanie Williams mandate, which could theoretically be extended. However, Russia's deputy ambassador to the United Nations, Dmitry Polyansky, has stressed the need to appoint a new UN envoy "as soon as possible."

Since the resignation of Slovak diplomat Jan Kubis in November, no UN envoy to Libya has been appointed. A diplomatic source told AFP, on condition of anonymity, that the African Union will propose to UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres the appointment of an African envoy.

The same source added that this proposal has the support of Russia and China in the UN Security Council. It is assumed that Guterres will receive the names of a number of personalities from which he will pick a nominee whom he will submit to the Security Council.

The demand for an African envoy representing the UN in Libya is not new. In 2020, Africa nominated Algerian and Ghanaian candidates, one after another, but the two proposals were rejected by the United States.

A government formed by former Interior Minister Fathi Bashagha and supported by the House of Representatives in the east is competing with the outgoing government headed by Abdulhamid Dbeibah, who refuses to step down, although the political agreement which had brought his government to power, stipulates that his term expired on December 24.

On Wednesday, Williams called on the Libyan House of Representatives to "respond quickly and positively" to her proposal to form a joint committee with the State Council (an advisory body) in order to set a constitutional basis that would lead to elections as soon as possible.

Last Friday, Williams had announced, in a series of tweets, an initiative that provides for the formation of a joint committee consisting of six representatives from both the House of Representatives and the State Council, which would have met on March 15 for a period of two weeks, under the auspices of the United Nations, to set a constitutional basis that leads the country to elections.

The joint committee was scheduled to meet on Tuesday to start its work but the House of Representatives has not yet named its representatives, nor has it officially announced its position on the initiative itself, except for a statement put out a week ago by 93 members who rejected the Williams plan.

Analysts says the timeframe attached to the initiative was not realistic given the deep differences still separating the House of Representatives and the State Council.

Both the United States and the UN special envoy to Libya seem to fear that in the near future Libyas eastern region tribes could carry on their threats to shut down the oil fields again, in support of the Bashagha government .

US Ambassador to Libya, Richard Norland, proposed Thursday a new mechanism to manage oil revenues in order to help the country avoid economic fallouts from the political crisis.

The rival factions have feuded for years over control of oil production, sales and revenue, fuelling the political chaos and violence that has gripped Libya since the 2011 NATO-backed uprising.

Read more:
Russian pressure on UN to appoint new envoy in Libya could signal end of Williams' mandate | | AW - The Arab Weekly

A boat carrying about two dozen migrants capsized in the Mediterranean Sea off the coast of Libya on Saturday, with at least 19 people missing and presumed dead, authorities said.

Libyas coastguard said that a group of 23 migrants Egyptians and Syrians set off from the eastern city of Tobruk earlier in the day. Three migrants were rescued and taken to hospital. Only one body was retrieved and search efforts were continuing, the agency said.

The shipwreck is the latest tragedy at sea involving migrants trying to cross the Mediterranean from the north African nation in a desperate attempt to reach European shores. Libya has emerged as the dominant transit point for migrants fleeing war and poverty in Africa and the Middle East, hoping for a better life in Europe.

Human traffickers in recent years have benefited from the chaos in Libya, smuggling in migrants across the oil-rich countrys lengthy borders with six nations. The migrants are then packed into ill-equipped rubber boats and set off on risky sea voyages.

At least 192 migrants drowned along the Central Mediterranean route in the first two months of 2022, the International Organization for Migration (IOM) said. More than 2,930 were intercepted and taken back to Libya. Once back, the migrants are typically taken to government-run detention centres rife with abuse and ill-treatment.

In 2021, at least 32,425 migrants were intercepted and returned to Libya. At least 1,553 are presumed to have drowned last year, according to IOM.

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At least 19 migrants missing after boat capsizes off coast of Libya - The Guardian

Libyan consumers have been complaining about the sudden food price rises upon the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian war. Within days of the war starting, bakeries increased bread prices from four standard loaves per dinar to three loaves per dinar.

Libya is heavily reliant on imported Ukrainian and Russian grain for its bread flour. Prices of other basic foodstuffs such as flour, cooking oil, sugar, and tomato paste also rose.

The public were outraged. Social media commentary complained that the war in Ukraine had barely started when bakeries raised prices. They complained that new grain supplies had not arrived in Libya yet to instantly affect bread prices. They demanded that the government, which subsidises bread flour, act.

The incumbent Aldabaiba-led Libyan Government of National Unity reacted by announcing that basic food supplies such grain supplies for bread flour were plentiful and ordered bakeries to revert to the pre-Ukraine war prices. It wowed to conduct price inspections at bakeries.

The Aldabaiba v Bashagha battle for powerMarkets like political stability. Instability encourages speculation and profiteering. In Libyas case the internal political uncertainty has not helped. Both Caretaker Prime Minister, Abd Alhamid Aldabaiba (installed through the Libyan Political Dialogue Forum (LPDF) process), and newly House of Representatives appointed Prime Minister, Fathi Bashagha, are fighting for the role of exclusive Prime Minister. The fight could get messy and could take Libya back to days of two parallel governments and sovereign institutions and ultimately to an oil production blockade and war.

This political uncertainty has left the door open for profiteering by some merchants who speculate that things could become even more unstable in Libya at least in the short term.

Ramadan: a historically high food consumption month

To add to this international and domestic uncertainty, the holy fasting month of Ramadan is historically a high consumption month of foodstuffs. Unless supplies are equal or higher than demand, prices tend to rise anyway during this time. But beyond high demand and low supply, there are traders who take advantage and raise prices anyway. Some cause artificial supply shortages by hoarding goods.

The fact that the Ukraine war started so close to Ramadan has also meant that Libyan suppliers did not have enough time to react to increased demand and import food supplies from other sources.

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Rising Libyan food prices on the eve of Ramadan: caused by Ukraine war and other external factors or simple profiteering? - Libya Herald