Archive for the ‘Libya’ Category

Libya: Youth Transition to Adulthood Amid the Conflict –

(Paris/Tunis/Beirut, 15 February 2022) The Arab Reform Initiative (ARI) launched today its latest research on Libya called Libyan Youth in Limbo: Coming of Age in Conflict. The study focuses on Libyan youth and the impact of a decade of conflict on their transition to adulthood.

The report, authored by ARIs non-resident fellow, Asma Khalifa, explores the decision-making processes of youth through in-depth qualitative research carried out with 75 Libyan youth in the regions of Tripolitania, Fezzan, and Cyrenaica. It looks at the types of opportunities and constraints that youth face in terms of education and livelihood, the impact of war on their political beliefs and participation, their understandings of peace and security, and how war has changed gender norms and relations.

In the process of transcribing interviews and drafting the report, I was overwhelmed with the richness of young people's minds and experiences. The loss of hope is acute in many of the stories but still there is strength of will, awareness and an independence that is inspiring" Asma Khalifa, said Asma Khalifa

The report is part of ARIs Youth Trajectories in Contexts of Conflict Project that aims to understand the impact of conflict and political transitions on youth in Syria, Libya and Iraq. Specifically, it explores how conflict has impacted their visions for political participation and aspirations for their future as well as expectations for livelihood.

In publishing this study, ARI is contributing new knowledge on Libyan youth in the context of post-2011 that takes as its point of departure how youth themselves narrate and navigate their trajectories, choices, aspirations, and interpretations of the heterogeneity of the youth lived experience, said Sarah Anne Rennick, ARI deputy director. This ground-up, evidence-based research can be utilized by relevant stakeholders to adapt policies, programs, and responses designed for, with, and by youth to ensure that they account for the diverse realities of Libyan youth today, and to ensure that they are not left behind in the post-conflict period.

The report highlights the fact that, after a decade of instability, Libyan youth are no longer concerned solely with the conflict but also with fundamental and more historic issues such as tolerance of differences.

Through the in-depth interviews, youth expressed feelings of instability and insecurity that prevent them from building their lives and being more politically engaged. This can be achieved by empowering MENAs new generation of political and social actors in their pursuit of participatory politics, social justice, accountability, equal citizenship, and representation, as well as by engaging in programming in the region that is for and by the youth.

The views represented in this paper are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Arab Reform Initiative, its staff, or its board.

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Libya: Youth Transition to Adulthood Amid the Conflict -

The weaponisation of Libya’s elections Democracy and society – IPS Journal

Libya is entering a new cycle of its political crisis. In December 2021, a mere 48 hours before polls were supposed to open, the elections were postponed. Emad Sayah, the head of Libyas High National Election Committee (HNEC), declared it to be a case of force majeure. He then proposed to Libyas parliament, the House of Representatives (HoR), to reschedule the elections for 24 January 2022. This deadline has now also passed. But rather than resolve and reschedule elections, the HoR appointed a new rival Prime Minister Fathi Bashagha on 10 February, dividing Libya between two rival political administrations.

Libyas now faces a dangerous new reality, as rival factions cling to power returning the country to the political divisions of the past, whilst proposing future election roadmaps designed to bring about the demise of their political rivals while guaranteeing their own political survival. The tactical moves on the part of rival factions go back at least twelve months. Since then, Libyas constitution, election law, and judiciary have become weapons in a new battle over Libyas electoral roadmap as political actors attempt to either stall or re-sequence elections to push a rival out of power, whilst preserving ones own institutional power indefinitely.

The crisis began shortly after the Libyan Political Dialogue Forum (LPDF), a United Nations appointed body of 75 members, was tasked with appointing a new interim unity government and establishing a political roadmap to culminate with democratic elections. The LPDF made early progress in appointing an interim Government of National Unity (GNU) to be led by Abdulhamid Dbeibah that took office in March 2021 and in agreeing to schedule simultaneous presidential and parliamentary elections for 24 December.

Since last summer, however, the LPDF faced internal political deadlock over how to proceed with the legal framework, namely a constitutional basis for elections. Libya has had a draft constitution since 2017, but it has faced criticism for its lack of inclusivity. At the same time, it became clear that the widespread threat of a boycott of the referendum would almost certainly lead to further delays to the political transition especially if the constitution were rejected at a pre-election referendum. The debate over how to establish a constitutional basis before the elections swiftly became a reality check over how long Libyas political transition would last, as factions within the LPDF alleged this would stall the transition and extend the GNUs interim mandate beyond 24 December.

Salehs law sparked outrage from parliamentarians and members of the LPDF, but was accepted by former UN Special Envoy to Libya, Jan Kubis.

In the LPDFs stalemate, the HoRs chief speaker Aguila Saleh captured an opportunity to reshape the political roadmap to remove the GNU from power whilst preserving his own power in parliament. In September, Saleh illegally bypassed a parliamentary vote and issued a presidential elections law by decree. The law rescheduled the LPDF roadmap by sequencing presidential elections before parliamentary elections instead of holding them simultaneously, a move designed to ensure an end to the GNUs eight-month political tenure whilst extending Salehs eight years of institutional control over parliament.

Moreover, the law sidestepped the constitutional referendum and used Libyas rump 2011 constitutional declaration that offers weak legal restraints and limits on the power of Libyas first elected president, increasing the prospects of a winner-takes-all outcome at the polls.

The law also faced criticism by the GNUs prime minister Abdelhamid Dbeiba for including conditions to block his candidacy, whilst being tailored to allow Saleh and one of his key allies responsible for Libyas civil war, Khalifa Haftar, the self-styled leader of the Libyan Arab Armed Forces (LAAF), to run on the presidential ballot, but return to their positions in parliament and the LAAF should they lose.

Salehs law sparked outrage from parliamentarians and members of the LPDF, but was accepted by former UN Special Envoy to Libya, Jan Kubis, who rather than reject the law and mediate decided to accept Salehs law to expediate the process to hold one (but not both) elections by any means on 24 December. When Kubis resigned one month before the elections and was replaced by his predecessor Stephanie Williams as UN Special Advisor, it became clear that confidence was lost in the UN mediation and election process under his custodianship. However, it was left to HNEC, the body responsible for administering elections, to announce the news without compromising their apolitical standing.

The future of parliamentary and presidential elections remains unclear under the HoRs new political roadmap but what comes next is certain to be a deeper political crisis and potential delays to full elections by years. The international community have already ruled out recognising a replacement for the GNU before elections. The appointment of a new parallel administration is thus a cynical attempt at a power grab in the knowledge it returns Libya to the tense years of political divisions between East and West that legitimised Haftars war on Tripoli in 2019. Secondly it is a major setback for the UNs Berlin process that will require the UN to reverse course on its democratic roadmap to address the present elite power struggle before future elections can be rescheduled.

Now its high time for the UN to demonstrate bold leadership and resuscitate the aims of the Berlin Process.

Finally, the HoRs roadmap remains weaponised to include milestones to extend the political life by years, and in the process sparking new legal disputes that will drag Libya into a new complex crisis. Saleh has passed a motion to allow the HoR to draft a new constitution rather than pass a referendum on the current draft prior to elections. Salehs own constitutional process is designed to allow him to delay parliamentary elections until the HoRs work on a new constitution is completed.

Given the 2017 constitution was drafted by a democratically elected assembly in 2014, Salehs proposed constitution lacks an elected mandate to replace it and would open so many further legal disputes and political challenges prior to parliamentary elections that the HoRs new roadmap could delay parliamentary elections and extend the HoRs mandate by years not months.

Todays crisis is in large part based on the assumption that individuals responsible for Libyas political crisis and wars will demonstrate self-sacrifice and willingly give up the political institutions and military power they have clung to for years through an electoral roadmap of their own design.

The UNs Berlin roadmap offered the international community an opportunity to erode the power of spoilers by dismantling the political and military institutions responsible for war into a unified neutral state rather than reward the figures at their helm with an opportunity to revive their political fortunes through elections.

Now its high time for the UN to demonstrate bold leadership and resuscitate the aims of the Berlin Process, and sequence a neutral political roadmap, setting sober election milestones based on substantive compromise and institutional reform, rather than stick to dates and timelines for political expedience that disguise conflict and reward spoilers with custodianship over Libyas future.

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The weaponisation of Libya's elections Democracy and society - IPS Journal

Jason Pack on the Conflict in Libya as an Example of Geopolitical Failure – Literary Hub

Hosted by Andrew Keen, Keen On features conversations with some of the worlds leading thinkers and writers about the economic, political, and technological issues being discussed in the news, right now.

In this episode, Andrew is joined by Jason Pack, the author of Libya and the Global Enduring Disorder.

Find more Keen On episodes and additional videos on Lit Hubs YouTube Channel!

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Jason Pack is a Non-Resident Fellow at the Middle East Institute and the President of Libya-Analysis LLC. His publications and events at MEI have focused on presenting a systematic view of Libyas economic structures as well as the ongoing patterns of foreign interference in the country. In addition to academic and policy writing focused on Libya, he publishes on oil markets, U.S. politics, wine tasting, and travel. His articles have appeared in The New York Times, The Wall Street Journal, The Spectator, The Financial Times, The Petroleum Economist, The Guardian, Foreign Policy, and Foreign Affairs.

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Jason Pack on the Conflict in Libya as an Example of Geopolitical Failure - Literary Hub

Will the UN allow a parallel government to be established in Libya? – TRT World

Nothing is certain and everything is debatable in Libya following the postponement of elections.

Since the long-awaited presidential elections of Libya - originally scheduled for December 24, 2021 - were postponed due to lack of constitutional basis and the candidacies of controversial figures, divisions in the north African country have worsened.

Most recently, the eastern-based Tobruk Parliament, House of Representatives (HoR), has announced that the UN-backed Government of National Unitys (GNU) mandate has expired and it will be installing a rival government.

Announcing the decision, speaker of the HoR, Aguila Saleh, on Monday, said his parliament kicked off the submission process for candidates paperwork for the prime ministry to replace the internationally-recognised GNUs head, Prime Minister Abdulhamid Dbeibah and install what they called a new government on February 8.

The spokesman of the HoR, Abdullah Blehiq, on the other hand, said candidate documents will be accepted until the hearing session on February 7 and the official list to be announced a day after.

Blehiq also said the HoR would call on stakeholders such as the UN and foreign countries to not intervene in the domestic affairs of Libya in case they oppose the process.

Commenting on the technical side of the process, the head of HoRs roadmap committee, Nasser Al-Deen Mahana said the elections can be held between 10-12 months adding that during this period Libya needs a stronger government which operates throughout the country.

Libyan PM Dbeibah responded by saying that the HoR speaker, Aguila Saleh, is trying to take the country to the brink of division and further fragmentation.

The Libyan PM told Al Jazeera his government will continue its work until elections and added that following a series of conversations with all international actors he had been assured that they would oppose the attempts of HoR and Saleh to create a parallel transitional process.

Libyas High Council of State (HCS) also rejected the development saying that it pursues one track and ignores the paths initially agreed on by all parties. The HCS stated its opposition to the attempts and called them unacceptable and inapplicable.

Based on the initial agreements which were accepted by both the GNU and HoR, the parliamentary and presidential elections must take place after the amendment of a new constitution agreed by all parties.

Amid the debates around the fate of Libyas long-awaited elections, the special adviser to the UN secretary general, Stephanie Williams said; My fear is that some people may now manoeuvre for a prolonged period of delay. The HoR exists off a mandate that it was given in elections 3,700 days ago. It has been seven years, seven months since Libya went to the national polls. The other chamber, the High State Council, was elected 10 years ago. Their shelf life has long expired. This is ultimately a struggle over assets, power and money. That is quite a motive to hang on.

I want the HoR as quickly as possible to set out a credible political process that answers the question that almost 3 million Libyans have asked, which is: what has become of our elections? It is entirely possible for the HoR to put elections back on track, and for an electoral event to happen by June, Williams added.

Criticising the HoR while reminding it of its main responsibilities, she said, Instead they have turned their attention to the musical chairs game, and the formation of a new government to replace the GNU. Before discussing a new government whose mandate would be unknown, the HoR should set an election date.

The special adviser also added that the possible formation of two governments in the country could trigger the re-emergence of Daesh in the south of Libya.

Amid the unprecedented rise of tensions in the war-torn country, even the fate of Stephanie Williams is uncertain as Russia and the US last week were at odds over extending the UN mission in Libya that ended on January 31.

Moscow and Washington were deadlocked when the UK proposed a resolution vote to extend UNSMILs mission until September 15 as Russia intended to veto the text before proposing its own resolution for a vote, which could have also been vetoed by the US.

During a Security Council meeting on Libya on January 24, Russia's Ambassador to the UN, Dmitry Polyanskiy, offered to appoint a new mediator in Libya. In the following days, UN spokesperson, Stephane Dujarric, reaffirmed Un Secretary-General Antonio Guterres's full support for Williams.

Source: TRT World

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Will the UN allow a parallel government to be established in Libya? - TRT World

Libya elite told to end game of musical chairs and focus on elections – The Guardian

Libyas political class should stop conducting musical chairs to stay in power and focus instead on preparing for nationwide elections to be held by June, the special adviser to the UN secretary general has said.

Stephanie Williams also warned of a possible resurgence of Islamic State if Libya were to fall back into total division.

Libya failed to hold elections for a president and parliament on 24 December partly due to rows over the eligibility of three controversial candidates, but also a wider fear that armed militia across the country would not accept the result if their candidate lost.

In the ensuing month divisions have worsened, as Libyas parliament, the House of Representatives (HoR), prepares to install a government to rival the UN-recognised Government of National Unity (GNU). The HoR says the GNUs mandate expired on 24 December.

Williams told the Guardian in an interview: My fear is that some people may now manoeuvre for a prolonged period of delay. The HoR exists off a mandate that it was given in elections 3,700 days ago. It has been seven years, seven months since Libya went to the national polls. The other chamber, the High State Council, was elected 10 years ago. Their shelf life has long expired. This is ultimately a struggle over assets, power and money. That is quite a motive to hang on.

I want the HoR as quickly as possible to set out a credible political process that answers the question that almost 3 million Libyans have asked, which is: what has become of our elections? It is entirely possible for the HoR to put elections back on track, and for an electoral event to happen by June.

Instead they have turned their attention to the musical chairs game, and the formation of a new government to replace the GNU. Before discussing a new government whose mandate would be unknown, the HoR should set an election date.

Williams said: There is a thirst for elections nearly 2.5 million collected their voting cards and in the city of Benghazi alone 800 people came forward to stand in the parliament. There is another new generation of Libyans that want to exercise their political rights.

She added: Elections can be part of a broader process of national reconciliation, particularly in countries where there has been no elections for a long time and there is an entrenched political elite who have had their noses in the trough for a long time.

She said she was ready to sit down immediately with the two chambers to hammer out a constitutional basis for the elections.

Williams warned the possible formation of two governments in the country could be dangerous. The power vacuum last week led to the re-emergence of Islamic State in the south of the country, and an attempt on the life of the minister of justice.

The spectre of the black flag in the south being raised is something we are all very worried about, and already several Libyan National Army soldiers were killed last week, she said.

The elections set for 24 December never happened partly due to conflicting rulings by Libyan courts on the eligibility of three candidates Gen Khalifa Haftar, the head of the Libyan National Army, Saif al-Islam Gadaffi, the son of the former Libyan dictator, and Abdul-Hamid Dbeibah, the head of the GNU. The international criminal court is inquiring into the first two while Dbeibah set aside a pledge that he would not stand in the elections, a precondition that had been set for anyone running the interim government.

Williams said it was not for the UN to decide which candidates stood. It is entirely a Libyan decision. But she added: You would have to ask Dbeibah what he thinks of a violation of a moral pledge.

She also called for the wings of the GNU, including its budget, to be clipped before it was replaced by an elected body. The intention endorsed by the UN was for the GNU to be a small technocratic government to deliver services to the municipalities, to prepare for the elections, deal with the Covid crisis and restore electricity. That required only a modest budget.

She also called for the merger of Libyas two central banks, but said this had to be accompanied by complete transparency, a criticism of a previous UN decision last year not to publish a UN-commissioned Deloitte review of the banks finances. She said: Implementation of the merger of the two banks has to be conducted with total transparency. The distribution and management of oil revenues in the country has long been a key driver of this conflict, so need full transparency.

Williams own future as special adviser has been in question since Russia at the UN in New York last week refused to renew the mandate of the UN mission to Libya until a new special envoy was appointed. The mandate expires at the end of this month. Williams, an Arabic-speaking US diplomat, served in 2020 as acting director of the UNs Libya mission after previously being its deputy director.

She was persuaded to come out of retirement after her Russian-backed successor, Jan Kubi, a Slovak, resigned under a welter of criticism. The UN secretary general appointed Williams as his special adviser in early December in part to circumvent Russian objections to her appointment.

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Libya elite told to end game of musical chairs and focus on elections - The Guardian