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While the reconciliation process has added a sense of optimism, several legal and security challenges remain, just months before the proposed elections in December.

After a decade of conflict, insecurity and political fragmentation, Libya could be looking at a more stable future and sustainable peace.

Libya has made reasonable progress in addressing the chaos and violence that emerged with the Arab uprisings in 2011. In October 2020, the two warring partiessigned an official ceasefire agreement, which has broadly held so far, bringing about a reconciliation process designed to culminate in elections this coming December.

Despite the steps taken in recent months, there are a few prime considerations for the interim government: forcing out the foreign fighters and mercenaries, drafting a new constitution, and possibly holding elections by the end of the year.

On June 23, Germany and the UN hosted a follow-up to the January 2020 Berlin Peace Conference on Libya to discuss progress and ongoing challenges, seeking to build a stable and peaceful future.

The conference renewed pledges to hold elections in December to replace an interim government in Tripoli led by Prime Minister Abdel Hamid Dabaiba. The final declaration called for the total departure of foreign fighters without further delay and for all sides to refrain from activities that exacerbate the conflict, including financing military facilities or recruiting foreign fighters and mercenaries.

Although many Libyans are eager to take to the polls, holding free and reliable elections requires a conducive political and security environment where all people can participate and engage in the political process and support paths of democratic transition.

Key challenger: Mercenaries

The presence of mercenaries, in particular, remains a significant security challenge and continues to impede progress toward holding national elections in December.

The power vacuum that occurred in the wake of Moammar Gaddafis death enabled various militia groups and mercenaries to gain a foothold in Libya. The unstable security environment, particularly in the east of the country, stands out, where thousands of irregular forces and mercenaries are reportedly based, moving around freely. They are not part of any government organisation and could risk renewing the conflict.

From Turkeys perspective, some countries that attended the Berlin conference failed to distinguish between Turkish forces on the ground and mercenaries and foreign fighters operating primarily under warlord Khalifa Haftars orders.

Turkish forces are there upon an official invitation by an internationally recognised, and United Nations-backed, government of Libya. Thus, the Turkish presence cannot be considered in the same light as foreign fighters in the country.

Since the November 2019 military agreement signed between Turkey and Libya, Ankara has been helping restructure the Libyan army and police forces and is engaged in the process of institution-building the country. Turkish forces are also helping prevent potential attacks by Haftars LNA.

Libyas new internationally recognised governmenthas offered assurances that the agreements are in place between Libya and Turkey. The prime minister of the GNUstated that these agreements fully correspond to the interests of Libya.

Some countries, including Russia and the UAE, have even refused to even acknowledge their presence in Libya in fact they claim that they have no involvement in the Libyan conflict, despite UNreports saying otherwise. However, the Wagner Group, a private military company linked to the Kremlin, has reportedly been operating in Libya since September 2019.

Furthermore, a UN reportsaid that the UAE has played a significant role in bringing hundreds of fighters from Sudans Darfur region to Libya to bolster Haftars LNA.

Holding elections

Libyas rival factions have agreed for a vote on December 24, 2021. Yet enormous challenges remain in uniting the country and preparing for elections. In this respect, following the Berlin conference, members of the Libyan Political Dialogue Forum (LPDF) recentlygathered in Switzerland to clear the way for national elections to be held on time.

The High National Election Commission (HNEC) has given a July 2021 deadline to the rival parties to agree on the constitutional foundations of the elections to avoid a delay to the December election.

Even though the participants of the Berlin conference expressed their support for the elections, Libyan delegates recentlyfailed to agree on a legal framework to hold presidential and parliamentary elections.

There is disagreement, for example, on whether to hold a referendum on a draft constitution prior to the elections or pass a temporary law and postpone broader constitutional questions. Furthermore, questions about candidate eligibility, such as whether they can have multiple citizenships, have to be addressed.

Recently, the chairman of Libyas High Council of State (HCS), Khalid al Mishri,said that Haftar lacks the legal prerequisites to get him on the ballots in December. According toan article from the draft constitution, those with dual citizenship cannot be candidates for the presidency.

More recently, there have been some mediareports that some of the LPDF delegates submitted a proposal that demanded no conditions be placed on presidential candidates regarding multiple citizenships or military rank. This demand was seen as an attempt to create conditions for Haftar to be a potential future candidate.

However, many representatives of the LPDF reportedly rejected the proposal, as Haftar is regarded as unfit for running owing to his US citizenship and military rank. Al Mishrisaid that Haftar sent his son to Geneva, specifically to pressure certain members of the LPDF to push for elections to take place without a constitution.

More recently, Haftar threatened a war if elections dont take place in December, saying that his forces will be ready to begin another offensive on Tripoli.

Nevertheless, the current reconciliation process and the UN sponsorship have contributed to increased optimism about a return to stability.

Given that the Libyan people are exhausted after ten years of war, occupation, turmoil and chaos, the international community must take more concrete steps to provide a safe environment to secure the holding of elections and fulfil the aspirations of Libyans for a more prosperous future.

Disclaimer: The viewpoints expressed by the authors do not necessarily reflect the opinions, viewpoints and editorial policies of TRT World.

We welcome all pitches and submissions to TRT World Opinion please send them via email, to opinion.editorial@trtworld.com

Source: TRT World

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In fractured Libya, is stability finally on the horizon? - TRT World

Since the outbreak of the virus in 2019, Libya has only seen 202,000 cases and just 3400 deaths. [Photo: GNU]Dr Ali Al-Zanati, Minister of Health in the Government of National Unity, affirmed that the countrys epidemiological status is comforting and that, in comparison to neighbouring nations, Libya is regarded a safe zone.

According to the Minister, there have been 202,000 cases and 3400 deaths since the onset of the pandemic in March 2019.

During a joint press conference with the spokesman for the Government of National Unity, the Minister explained that statistics on the number of cases in isolation and care centres are few, if not non-existent, in some districts.

On the occasion of Eid Al-Adha, the Minister of Health urged prudence and social distance, as well as the wearing of face masks and strict adherence to social distancing rules, in order to safeguard as many people as possible.

The Minister of Health attributed the significant increase in positive results from the analysis to peoples awareness and sense of the importance of conducting the tests, which were limited to travellers. He also noted that repeated testing from citizens more than once and in more than one location will result in an inaccurate spike in positives.

According to Dr Al-Zanati, the Government of National Unity has mandated that extra attention and health procedures be taken at land and air outlets, particularly with neighbouring Tunisia.

The Minister of Health stated that 8 days after such safeguards were implemented and there was concern that positive cases would grow, a decrease in mortality and a decrease in oxygen demand were recorded, confirming that the majority of cases had been reported.

In a related context, the National Center for Disease Control (NCDC) has declared that it is preparing for next weeks vaccine campaign in towns where the epidemic situation has worsened.

According to the Libyan news agency (LANA), the Director of the Centres Vaccination Department, Abdalbaset Samiu, stated that the Centre had distributed the Sputnik V vaccine to the four branches (Tripoli-Benghazi-Sabha-Misrata) to begin distributing it to vaccination centres within its scope.

He also stated that 437,414 people have gotten vaccines thus far, with 905,000 people enrolled in the system.

We anticipate a shipment of Russias Sputnik V comprising 500,000 dosages, which is expected to come Saturday or Sunday as promised by the contracted supplier, he continued.

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Ministry of Health: Compared to neighboring countries, Libya's Covid situation is under control - Libyan Express

Libya is moving closer to getting foreign mercenaries out of the country. During this weeks Berlin Conference the second to take place in the German capital in an effort to end Libyas long-running conflict Libyan representatives and international powers said progress was made on the ejection of foreign fighters ahead of a planned national election on December 24. But, its not going to happen overnight.For more stories from The Media Line go to themedialine.org

We cant wave a magic wand and make this happen, but working together with the Libyan people, I think theres a strong chance that we can set the conditions to provide the incentives and maybe other parameters for these forces to leave. But frankly, theres no organization or body that is more capable of bringing about that departure than a strong, unified Libyan government chosen by its own people. And so thats why elections are so important, Joey Hood, acting US assistant secretary of state for the Bureau of Near Eastern Affairs, said in a briefing following the conference.

The United Nations estimates that 20,000 foreign fighters and mercenaries remain in Libya a presence seen as a threat to the UN-recognized transition leading to the elections. Much of the foreign interference in Libya is the result of a regional rivalry between two US allies: the United Arab Emirates and Turkey. Theres been very little public news regarding American dialogue on the Libyan file with Ankara and Abu Dhabi, and Hood says thats been by design.

We have had those discussions in both of those capitals and elsewhere. But I think a difference between this administration and maybe previous ones is that this: the Biden administration has decided to undertake diplomacy in a very quiet way. And, so youre not likely to see well-publicized meetings and readouts of every single discussion that are very detailed because we think that we can get more progress by having quiet conversations with our partners, and then coming in with as many allies as we can with a unified position. So thats why I think youve seen so much work done on trying to get unified positions on very clear sets of points, said Hood, who attended the Second Berlin Conference on June 23 together with US Secretary of State Antony Blinken. The Trump administration did not send a high-ranking representative to the first Berlin Conference in January 2020, which was attended by the presidents of Turkey, Russia and France.

Khalifa Shaheen Al Marar, UAE minister of state and head of the UAE's delegation to the talks, called on Libyan and international parties to "commit themselves to the political process and provide all factors to its success in order to realize security, stability and unity of Libyan institutions to fulfill the aspirations of the Libyan people for a more prosperous future."

Meanwhile, a senior official at the State Department said Turkey and Russia, which back opposing sides in Libya, had reached an initial understanding to work toward a target of pulling out 300 Syrian mercenaries from each side of the conflict, something that Hood would not confirm.

We think that foreign actors of all stripes should respect the Libyans desire to reassert their own sovereignty by respecting the terms of the cease-fire agreement from last October. With regard to any understanding between the Russians and the Turks, or separately from those two parties, I would have to refer you to them to know exactly what they intend to do, said Hood.

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But, we call on both of them and all sides to immediately pull out all foreign forces, whether they are regular forces, mercenaries or something else. The best way for Libya is to decide on what countries its going to have security cooperation relationships with, once it has a government that comes out of these elections and that clearly represents the will of the Libyan people, Hood said.

Libya has been in chaos for a decade since longtime ruler Moammar Gadhafi was toppled in a 2011 NATO-backed uprising.

The country was subsequently split in two. The UN-recognized Government of National Accord (GNA) operated out of the capital, Tripoli, and a rival administration, led by renegade military commander Khalifa Haftar, based itself in the countrys east. Both sides were backed by armed groups and foreign governments.

In April 2019, Haftar and his forces, supported by Egypt and the United Arab Emirates, launched an offensive to try and capture Tripoli. Haftars campaign sank after 14 months, with Turkey stepping up its support of the Tripoli government, providing advanced military hardware, troops and thousands of mercenaries.

Finally, this past October, the two camps agreed to a cease-fire in Geneva.

German Foreign Minister Heiko Maas said that although progress has been made, the withdrawals likely would proceed gradually.

"I believe that between the Turkish and the Russian sides, there was also an understanding that if you stop, this will not mean that everybody will take their mercenaries back overnight," he said.

Germany, the host country of Wednesdays conference, is acting as an intermediary in the conflict. Other states involved in the process include the five permanent members of the UN Security Council, along with the UAE, Italy and Turkey.

The recommendations coming out of the conference are quite similar to those from the initial Berlin Conference, leading some experts to wonder what gives the US hope that things will turn out differently this time around.

Hood identified one difference being the presence this time of Libyan Government of National Unity Prime Minister Abdulhamid Dabaiba. The unity government took office in March with the backing of the UN and Western powers.

With regard to the question about hope, its interesting I noticed that almost every speaker at the conference looked at the prime minister and said, Your presence here is what represents hope for us. Because what the prime minister represents is a successful effort by the Libyan people and the major political actors to come together and to form a Government of National Unity on an interim basis to bring them toward elections, Hood said.

I think if youd asked people a year and a half ago if that was even possible, they would have said no. And, so, weve seen remarkable progress among the political actors being willing to stop fighting, said Hood.

Still, the removal of foreign fighters, while essential, is far from the only challenge on the way to a functioning, stable Libyan government. There are still several obstacles to overcome and milestones to be met.

The first one is setting the constitutional and legal basis for the elections, which must be done by July 1. So, doing that will then unlock a number of things that the high national electoral commission needs to do to move to the next steps. But security is obviously going to be a problem in many places throughout the country where armed groups that are not part of any government organization are moving around freely and attacking. I mean, weve seen attacks by terrorist groups in the past couple of months that have been just shocking, especially in the south, said Hood.

Administratively, obviously they havent had a nationwide election in a long time. Im sure that they need to train people and they need to even bring electricity and other things like that to certain parts of the country to make sure that just administratively the election can take place. But, as I said, Libya is not a poor country. It doesnt have a huge population. And, so these things are possible. They can overcome these challenges and they have a lot of partners, like the United States, who want to help them do that. So, I have every confidence that they can do it, and they seem determined, Hood said.

Still, Dabaiba himself raised a number of concerns over Libya's progress, scolding the legislature for failing to make serious efforts to create electoral laws and a functioning constitution. It is still unknown exactly what Libyans will be voting for, particularly if the president should be directly elected.

Libya's High National Election Commission has said a decision on the constitution should be made by July 1 to prevent a delay to the December 24 election.

More:
Libya on bumpy road to elections - The Jerusalem Post

Tunis, 27 June 2021 - The Advisory Committee of the Libyan Political Dialogue Forum (LPDF) concluded on Saturday, 26 June 2021, a three-day meeting, convened by UNSMIL at the request of LPDF members, in Tunis.

UNSMIL and members of the Advisory Committee commended the work of the Legal Committee in developing a draft constitutional basis for the holding of national parliamentary and presidential elections on 24 December 2021. During the meeting, the Committee reviewed various proposals submitted by the LPDF members on the constitutional basis necessary for holding these elections, as stipulated by the LPDF Roadmap and called for by the Conclusions of the Second Berlin Conference, as well as by Security Council resolution 2570 (2021).

The discussions took place in a positive atmosphere filled with a spirit of compromise. The Committee reached consensus formulas on many of the outstanding issues and will submit its recommendations to the Libyan Political Dialogue Forum for its consideration and appropriate decisions at its upcoming meeting on 28 June in Switzerland, after completing its ongoing consultations.

Advisory Committee members will meet again in Switzerland, before presenting their proposal to the LPDF plenary.

UNSMIL commends the members of the Advisory Committee for their spirit of national responsibility and tireless efforts to pursue a realistic and consensual formula that secures the holding of elections, in a safe environment, to respond to the aspirations of the Libyan people and their longing for lasting stability, sovereignty and democratic legitimacy of Libyas institutions and their elected representatives.

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LPDF Advisory Committee concludes its three-day consultative meeting in Tunisia - Libya - ReliefWeb

Saif al-Islam Gadhafi, son of the late Libyan autocratMoammar Gadhafi, hasnt been seen in public since his rebel captors released him from detention in 2017. But he appears now to be mulling a run for the presidency of the war-torn north African country in elections the United Nations and Western powers are pressing for in December.

The prospect of Saif figuring in the elections is unnerving Western diplomats and international democracy advisers, who say Libyas troubled peace process has enough major obstacles to overcome without Gadhafis son, a highly polarizing figure, getting involved.

What I hear is that he is more vengeful than conciliatory, says Mary Fitzgerald, a researcher and associate fellow at the International Centre for the Study of Radicalization, Kings College London. Fitzgerald, a former Irish Times newspaper reporter, covered the 2011 Libyan civil war that ended withMoammar Gadhafis ouster and death.

Saif, who is wanted by the International Criminal Court on war-crime charges, has been talking via intermediaries with Western media. A major U.S. newspaper has conducted a formal interview with him, which is slated for publication next month, intermediaries say.

It is still rather unclear whether he is actually putting himself out there as a candidate. I will believe it only when I actually hear him or see him in video make that pitch, Claudia Gazzini of the International Crisis Group, a Brussels-based think tank, told VOA.

Hafed al-Ghwell, a Libyan-American and senior fellow at the Foreign Policy Institute of the Paul H. Nitze School of Advanced International Studies at Johns Hopkins University, says he doesnt think Saif has made up his mind. But if he does, I think he will have significant support, he adds.

Saifs candidacy would likely prove popular in the desert south of the country and among former Gadhafi loyalists and he might be able to persuade many ordinary Libyans, exhausted by a decade of strife, that he is the best bet for a stable future, say observers.

Risks

But his candidacy also risks triggering more violence. Earlier this year, pro-Gadhafi media in Libya claimed General Khalifa Haftar, a warlord who rules eastern Libya, and his son, Saddam, were plotting to kill Saif. Haftar has presidential ambitions. Some Islamists at the forefront of the 2011 uprising are also deeply opposed to a return of a Gaddafi family member.

There are certainly many, not only Islamists, who would kill him for his role during the revolution, if there is a chance, reckons Wolfgang Pusztai, who served in Libya as Austrias defense attach between 2007 and 2011, and is a senior advisor at the Austrian Institute for European and Security Policy.

There has been considerable talk in Libya since 2017 that Gadhafis second son, who during the last years of his fathers rule presented himself as a reformer, might one day try to stage a political comeback. Freed in June 2017 after six years as a prisoner of a militia in the town of Zintan, 136 kilometers southwest of Tripoli, Saif, aged 48, has been maneuvering behind the scenes.

Some Libyans say he could have saved his country much pain if he had split from his father on the eve of the 2011 uprising, which friends say he did seriously consider. If he had, it might have brought his father down without any fighting, they agree. The victorious rebels sentenced Saif to death in 2015 but a Tripoli court overturned the sentence and ruled there should be a new trial. Saif is believed still to be in Zintan.

Three of Saifs brothers were killed in 2011 an another two are in jail, in Libya and Lebanon. His sister Aisha lives in Oman in exile. His adopted sister Hana is married to one of his confidants and lives in Egypt.

Since 2011, Libya has been ensnared in dispute and violence with rival governments, militias and warlords, backed by a variety of foreign powers, battling for mastery.

Encouraged by the U.N. and Western powers, Libyan rivals agreed last March to a provisional administration, the Government of National Unity, GNU, to run the country until parliamentary and presidential elections are held on December 24. The temporary governments mandate runs out then.

Last week, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken joined foreign ministers from 17 states, including Russia and Turkey, which both have military forces present in Libya, at a conference in Berlin to urge Libyas parliamentarians and factions to keep to the election timetable and to pass an election law. The European Union has warned it would consider imposing sanctions on any Libyan leaders who obstruct the process.

Hasty elections

But some observers fear the U.N. and Western powers may be in too much haste and might be repeating what they see as a mistake in 2012 in pressing for elections too early after Gadhafis ouster. Critics say there has been too much focus on a date for the elections and not enough on the process and what is needed to have elections, if they are to be widely accepted in Libya as legitimate.

Talks are deadlocked on an election law and over whether a referendum should be held first on a draft constitution, which would delay elections for months, if not longer.

On elections, we are still at a standstill as regards to a consensus on which elections to have, says Gazzini.

Despite the strong show of support for Presidential and Parliamentary elections in December voiced by the participants of the Berlin conference, Libyan constituencies remain divided on this. Plus there are some local stakeholders who are still pushing against, she adds.

Mary Fitzgerald worries especially about holding an election for a president. I think the idea of presidential elections is dumb anyway, and internationals should have nipped it in the bud sooner. Parliamentary, yes, but presidential without checks and balances in a place like Libya? I do acknowledge the need for parliamentary elections but presidential elections are such a bad idea, she told VOA.

Former Austrian defense attach Wolfgang Pusztai says there are few good alternatives.

Elections in December are not a very good option for Libya, but unfortunately there is no better one. The main obstacles on the way to elections are the lack of consensus about a constitutional basis for these elections and the disagreement about the way the president shall be elected. The main challenges for the elections themselves are the dire security situation in several parts of the country, including the greater capital region, he told VOA.

But Pusztai believes a president or better still a three-person presidential council is needed. A country in crisis like Libya needs a strong leader to overcome difficulties, at least for an interim period. This must not be confused with a dictator. The last 10 years have already clearly demonstrated how far a weak leadership can get.

Excerpt from:
Possible Presidential Run by Gadhafi's Son Adds Strain to Troubled Peace Process - Voice of America