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The spread of the coronavirus has surprising similarities to the spread of fake news, gun violence and even social media fads. What they all have in common is that mathematics plays a role in predicting how things "go viral," whether it's a germ, a rumor or an internet trend.

Adam Kucharski, associate professor at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, is the author of The Rules of Contagion: Why Things Spread And Why They Stop. Adam Kucharski hide caption

In his new book, The Rules of Contagion, Adam Kucharski, associate professor at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, talked about how to understand all types of contagion.

In your book, you describe a drinking game, Neknomination, that started on Facebook and YouTube in 2014 in Australia and "went viral." You studied it when it came to England, and you correctly predicted the game would die out quickly. How did you come to that conclusion?

In Neknomination, people were downing pints of beer and large quantities of alcohol. Each person would do it, post a video online and nominate two or three others to outdo them. Those people had to meet the challenge and nominate others within 24 hours. In studying it, we had two bits of information that are really hard to get at in disease outbreak: the reproduction number how many others one person "infects" and the lag time, 24 hours, after which people would stop spreading the game. Friends tend to cluster together and nominate the same people. That reduces the reproduction number below one and leads to a smaller outbreak. Despite a media frenzy in early February 2014, [the game] was all but gone by the end of that month.

Talk about the importance of the reproduction rate in contagion.

It's the mathematics of exponential spread. For each case of COVID-19 you have, how many others are you infecting? In the early stages of this pandemic, the reproduction number, or "R," was 2 to 3. Now, in many countries, it's in the 0.81.2 range. Anything above 1 means it's going to grow. If you bring the "R" rate down below 1, it means one person infects fewer than one other person, and you can say the spread of the disease is under control and will eventually die out. If the "R" is .95, you will have a declining epidemic.

Even though the epidemic is in decline with an "R" of less than 1, some people will continue to get infected, get sick and even die, correct?

Yes, that's a good point. There could be a large number of individuals still getting sick as transmission slows. You can't think that when you get to an "R" number below 1, the problem is solved.

How far into the future can you predict how a virus will spread?

The hard thing about predicting the future for COVID-19 is that it's so dependent on what governments do and what individuals do. You can see a lot of different scenarios depending on what people do. Models can be a useful way of laying out the possibilities. If you lock down longer, this is what will happen; if you lift the lockdown early, then this is what will happen. But a much larger question is what governments and people do with the information. Some countries might think a predicted level of contagion is acceptable. Other countries will think that same level of contagion is too high, and they need to put more measures in place for a longer time.

Contact tracing has been identified as a key element in stopping spread: finding all those in contact with a newly diagnosed case. Can that work in other areas, like stopping the spread of gun violence?

In a pandemic, you identify a patient and then you identify others in that person's network that they've been in contact with. You quarantine them all, and that should stop transmission. Violent events can also spread through definable networks like gangs. If you have a shooting, you try to find other people connected through friends, gangs or other networks. Some communities have what they call violence interrupters a well-known person in the community who has credibility. They might find friends of a gunshot victim and talk to them about the danger and futility of retaliation.

How do you think this pandemic is going to unfold?

It's often hard to imagine what might have happened had you done something differently. But we can watch different scenarios. Some countries, like New Zealand, had early travel restrictions and now have local control. With border restrictions, they might be able to keep that going. Other places, like Hong Kong and South Korea, are keeping the pandemic under control but with flare-ups. Some places in Europe and the U.S. are lifting lockdowns, but they're doing it differently with or without various substitute measures, like testing, contact tracing, mandatory masks and social distancing. And still other places, like India and South Africa, are not able to keep lockdown measures in place.

With this pandemic, we'll see alternative realities play out in real time with wide variations around the world. Things aren't going to look the same for a long time.

Susan Brink is a freelance writer who covers health and medicine. She is the author of The Fourth Trimester and co-author of A Change of Heart.

Continued here:
New Book: 'The Rules Of Contagion: Why Things Spread And Why They Stop' : Goats and Soda - NPR

Johnny Depp has admitted excessive drinking, drug-taking and trashing hotel rooms, but denied accusations by his former wife Amber Heard that he had been violent towards her in his libel battle against the Sun, which has accused him of being a wife-beater.

Lawyers for Depp said the accusations of violence made by Heard were invented and he strenuously denied that he had ever been violent towards her.

Giving evidence at the Royal Courts of Justice in London, Depp repeatedly insisted he had never been a violent individual but was someone who aspired to be a southern gentleman.

On the opening day of a three-week trial, the 57-year-old Hollywood actor disputed accounts given by Heard of domestic violence during their marriage.

The legal action has been brought by Depp after the Sun and its executive editor, Dan Wootton, published an article describing him as a wife-beater based on allegations Heard had made. Heard, 34, who was in court, is due to give evidence for the newspaper in the coming days.

Written submissions from the parties were released as the hearings began. In one witness statement, Depp claimed Heard had repeatedly punched him in the face and partially severed his finger by throwing a vodka bottle.

In another statement, the Pirates of the Caribbean and Edward Scissorhands star described her as a calculating, diagnosed borderline personality and narcissist who had married him to advance her career.

David Sherborne, Depps barrister, said Heard had invented these stories of serious violence. He is not and never has been a wife-beater.

Indeed, he says that it was Ms Heard who was the one who started physical fights, who punched or hit him (and there was little he could really do to stop this); she was the abuser, not him.

In a statement Depp also said that he had decided to divorce Heard after she or possibly one of her friends defecated in their marital bed, and she dismissed it as a harmless prank. He said it was the final straw in their deteriorating marriage.

A statement submitted by News Group newspapers, the publishers of the Sun, said it would demonstrate that the description of Mr Depp as a wife-beater is entirely accurate and truthful.

It added: The sting of the articles is correct namely that [Depp] beat his wife Amber Heard causing her to suffer significant injury and on occasion leading to her fearing for her life.

The paper said Heard was forging her own way in the acting profession and was not content to play the role of a supplicant consort. As a result of her having her own career, disputes between the two increasingly arose where Ms Heards professional life clashed with Mr Depps desire to dominate the relationship.

After Depp entered the witness box, the accusations and counter-accusations intensified. The hearing was shown a short clip filmed by Heard on a mobile phone that appeared to show Depp drinking wine early in the day and smashing bottles or glass in their kitchen.

At one stage Depp admitted he had been spending more than $30,000 (24,000) a month on wine before he went into rehab. But, he added, Yes, I drank to excess but drinking to great excess doesnt mean that you are out of control Violence is not something I go looking for.

He had avoided confrontation in his relationship with Heard, he recalled. Whenever these situations would escalate, I would try and go to my own corner. I wanted to separate before things got out of hand.

Questioned about drug use by Sasha Wass QC, for the Sun, Depp said he had first started taking his mothers nerve pills at the age of 11. He stood by an earlier magazine interview he had given in which he said: I did every kind of drugs there were by the age of 14.

He denied that he had ever indulged in destructive behaviour. He had taken drugs initially, he said, because it was the only thing I found to numb the pain. He had not taken ketamine but agreed he had used cocaine, ecstasy, LSD, mushrooms and cannabis.

Wass suggested Depp was someone who often expressed his anger by trashing hotel rooms. She took him through one incident when he was said to have inflicted almost $10,000 worth of damage on a New York hotel room.

I dont know the exact amount of damage, Depp answered. I made a few dents. Yes. It had been the culmination of a particularly bad couple of days, he said, because he had been screwed over by a friend.

I was angry, he added. That didnt mean I had an anger problem. On that occasion I chose to express my anger. He denied that it had been because he had quarrelled with a girlfriend.

His earlier relationship with actor Ellen Barkin was also examined by Wass. She accused him in a statement of throwing a bottle in her direction.

Depp replied: Miss Barkins statement about what she believed happened is not what happened. I dont want to call anyone a liar but I can tell you that never happened.

Asked about his view of himself, Depp occasionally paused for thought and volunteered personal reflections. When ones aspiration is to be a great gentleman, to be a great southern gentleman, that doesnt exclude you from the family of humans who have moments of frustration, he stated in one answer.

Heards spokesperson said in a statement outside court before the trial: Amber was never asked for these proceedings to take place. Amber obtained a domestic violence restraining order against Depp back in 2016 and has tried to move on with her life.

It is Johnny Depp who brought these proceedings against a British newspaper and has dragged her to the UK courts to give evidence on some of the most distressing moments of her life.

The hearing continues.

Originally posted here:
Johnny Depp admits heavy drinking but denies abuse of Amber Heard - The Guardian

While managing the ongoing response to an outbreak of one sometimes-fatal virus state officials are gearing up for an active summer season for another one, but the messaging to keep residents safe shares many similarities.

Whether it's the coronavirus that causes COVID-19 or the mosquito-borne eastern equine encephalitis (EEE) virus that appears primed for an active summer, the main message from Gov. Charlie Baker, Public Health Commissioner Monica Bharel and others Tuesday was that it's up to each individual to take appropriate steps to limit their own risk of exposure.

"The key to our message is about taking personal protective measures," Bharel said at a press conference in Plymouth. She added, "We've all been spending a lot of time indoors related to COVID-19 and we want the residents of Massachusetts to go outside and enjoy outdoor time with their families. But just like we asked you to take precautions against the other virus that causes COVID, we ask you to take enhanced precautions against EEE so that we can protect ourselves and continue to enjoy the outdoors."

Bharel said people across Massachusetts, not just areas that commonly see cases of EEE, should use mosquito repellents with an EPA-registered active ingredient, wear long sleeves and long pants when outdoors to reduce exposed skin, and stay aware of mosquito activity in the community.

And by the end of this week, legislation granting the administration new powers to run a statewide mosquito control response when the threat of EEE or other mosquito-related diseases is high could be one step closer to the governor's desk, House Speaker Robert DeLeo's office said.

The state is launching a public awareness campaign to remind people of the threat of EEE and the ways to stay safe during mosquito season, and will post the messages on digital billboards, on social media and streaming services, and on television, Bharel said. A new website, http://www.mass.gov/mosquitoesandticks, includes statewide EEE and West Nile virus risk maps.

Last year was the "most active year since the 1950s" for EEE in Massachusetts, with 12 human cases of EEE and six deaths, Bharel said. The disease can affect people of all ages and is generally spread to humans through the bite of an infected mosquito.

Outbreaks of EEE tend to extend themselves over two or three years, officials said Tuesday, so the state began last fall to prepare for this summer's mosquito season. The Department of Public Health has detected the virus in two mosquitoes already in 2020, which Bharel said is the earliest the virus has been identified here in 20 years. No human or animal cases have been reported yet this year.

Last year's EEE activity also showed that EEE is not contained to the typical clusters in Bristol and Plymouth counties, where certain swamps that serve as mosquito breeding grounds are more prevalent. The two EEE-infected mosquitoes reported by DPH already this year came from Orange and Wendell, areas into which the state had recently expanded its surveillance trap program.

"Part of this is about dealing with the fact that as the virus -- not COVID -- as the EEE virus migrates a bit as birds and mosquitoes migrate, it's important that we think a little more about this as a statewide issue and not so much on the particular areas where we've always focused on it where historically have been the places where we've typically seen the biggest outbreaks associated with EEE," Baker said Tuesday.

In addition to reminding people to protect themselves from EEE, Tuesday's press conference at the Plymouth County Mosquito Control Project served as a chance for the governor to press lawmakers to act on legislation he filed in April to modernize the state's approach to combating mosquito-borne illnesses like EEE and West Nile virus.

When he filed his bill, Baker wrote that the "current framework for mosquito control dates to the 1970s and does not allow for the sort of coordinated statewide efforts that are necessary to prevent and combat these viruses and the mosquitoes that carry them," saying that many cities and towns lack entities engaged in mosquito control and are not part of larger control projects.

The Senate approved a mosquito control bill (S 2757) based on Baker's legislation to give the State Reclamation and Mosquito Control Board new powers to fight mosquito-borne illnesses when the state Department of Public Health determines there is an elevated risk.

"The legislation that we filed with the Legislature which I do anticipate and hope will find its way through the Legislature shortly and get to our desk will allow the experts at the Department of Public Health, and the State Reclamation and Mosquito Control Board to work together proactively to protect public health across the commonwealth," Baker said. "When DPH determines that there is an elevated risk, the experts in mosquito control at the State Reclamation and Mosquito Control Board may take necessary actions to mitigate that risk."

Baker has good reason to anticipate that the bill will make its way through the Legislature soon. DeLeo's office told the News Service on Tuesday that the speaker told the governor last week that the House intends to take up the mosquito control bill this week the House is planning a formal session for Thursday and reiterated that plan during a conversation Monday.

Read more:
State, residents urged to be ready for active EEE season - Dorchester Reporter

You look on social media and see jokes about the concept of time, about February 2020 lasting for 36 hours and March lasting for 534 days. Funny, but it really felt that way.

When my students are getting ready to graduate and they start looking at how theyll be compensated, we always chat about three things: money, time and contentment.

Most measures of employment focus on the first one. Money is something we need to survive and I dont discount it. But I also know that its not the only factor in determining whether or not someone is happy. Salary or hourly wages arent the only forms of money either. Aside from good health care, theres retirement to think about, even though its usually the last thing on the minds of traditionally-aged, newly-minted college grads.

In his book, Running Down a Dream, author and podcaster Tim Grahl lays out what he identifies as three primary values that drive our work: Are you pursuing fortune, fame or freedom?

I know what some of you are thinking: Why cant we have all three? Well, those values can certainly be interlaced, and we can claim to have more than one value, but determining what drives us helps us make better choices about our lives.

This concept reminded me of the talks I have with my students.

Fortune? That ones easy. Its all about money. That line from The OJays For The Love Of Money, Money, money, money plays in my mind when I think about fortune as a value. In case you needed an earworm for the day, this song is a good one to have in your head.

Fame is a persons desire to be seen and heard. People who are driven by this are interested in being known and talked about. In their dream scenario, the paparazzi would be waiting outside a Starbucks to snap a picture of them drinking a mochaccino. More importantly, though, fame is about a need some people have to be a participant in the conversation and to express ideas that matter to others.

Freedom is about time. More specifically, its about controlling your own time. But during the pandemic, control and time have been odd concepts to define.

Before the pandemic, I would have easily chosen freedom as my biggest value. I know for a fact Im not motivated by fortune. I couldnt even tell you my current salary; Id need to look it up.

Fame? I suppose fame is a little bit of an influence in my value set. I work as a teacher-scholar, spending a large amount of time reading and processing ideas. Then I get to share those ideas with the students I teach. So, following Grahls definition of fame, Im participating in the conversation, but I dont really crave a large audience.

As an introvert, I realize there would be a hefty price to pay if I gained true fame. Payments would likely be extracted in the form of personal freedom. But I dont engage in ideas because I want fame, I do so because Im curious and my brain is hungry. It feels more like an introspective pursuit than this definition of fame would indicate.

This leaves freedom. As I noted earlier, freedom is such a strange value to quantify right now. Time as a form of freedom has lost some of its meaning during the pandemic. Days used to be structured and the freedom of teaching and research was that I didnt have to account for each minute. Its one of the main reasons I spent 10 years on my education. Having a flexible schedule is important to me.

Freedom. I loved this. I owned this. I valued this. I controlled this. Well, OK, I mostly controlled this. Still, the freedom of time was one of the few concepts over which I felt I still had a modicum of control. Even during the pandemic, I havent given this up.

Im not alone. Now, more than ever, other people are feeling freer because theyre working remotely. But while we have more freedom, time has become an elusive concept. To compare it to money, it would be like eliminating cash and moving to the barter system.

The new reality of time is old fashioned, or futuristic, or just somehow off. How do you measure the value of something that seems to have lost its constant?

What this has to do with The Earnheardts with my husband and our children is directly connected to those conversations I have with my students about the values of work while maintaining a healthy work-life balance (which I understand is different for everyone).

Our four children, although separated in ages by eight years, are very familiar with the concepts of fortune and fame. They think they know what a lot of money is, which is a weird byproduct of their concept of fame YouTube stardom.

YouTube stars are rich! they tell us. Not sure theyve ever offered much proof beyond a few oddball screen names (e.g. Is PewDiePie a YouTube star? I forget). So, of course, Adam and I use this as an opportunity to explain how the workforce functions as part of society and also to urge our children to think about what they value.

Freedom, I fear, is one well struggle with for years to come both during the pandemic and in the time that follows. This is because, like the rest of us, our children have had the concept of freedom and time turned upside down.

You look on social media and see jokes about the concept of time, about February 2020 lasting for 36 hours and March lasting for 534 days. Funny, but it really felt that way. There are memes where people make up months like Octebuary. Its fun to joke, but like all humor, we laugh because we relate to its real and sometimes painful truth.

Depending on what you decide to do, days can be over before you know it or you can look at the clock thinking its 10 p.m., but its only 5 oclock p.m. (or is it a.m.?). The Coronavirus lockdown has messed up our internal clocks and calendars. And, as someone who values time, I dont know how to adapt let alone teach my children about it.

In the early days, we held on to the daily rituals that created structure, but when it became apparent we were going to be isolated for the long haul, we started to relax. Thats when time really started to get weird.

We dont force our kids to wake up at a certain time every morning or tell them when to go to bed every night. Their little internal alarm clocks do this for them. They awake and go to sleep at almost the same time each day anyway. Much like our ancient ancestors, were letting a more natural state of being determine our routines.

It makes me wonder how well all react, what well keep and what well ditch, when life returns to normal, when we really have to start paying attention to clocks again. Will the kids value freedom because theyve had more of a chance to live as they want? Or, is having a set schedule better for all of us as individuals? As a family? Hell, as a society?

I dont know the answers yet, but I may have an idea somewhere around 700:00 a.m. on the 449th day of Janember.

Mary Beth Earnheardt is director of the Anderson Program in Journalism at Youngstown State University. You can follow her on Twitter at @mbexoxo.

Link:
The Earnheardts | The concept of time during a pandemic - Mahoning Matters

Wireless backhaul can accelerate deployment of 5G networks while awaiting the necessary fiber

What you need to know:

SOLVANG, Calif., July 07, 2020 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Verizon and Ericsson recently completed a proof-of-concept trial using new Integrated Access Backhaul technology to deploy Verizons 5G Ultra Wideband service, eliminating the need to wait for fiber installations. Fiber-optic cables, which serve as the circulatory system of a network to transfer data between cell sites and the networks core, are critical in wireless networks, and Verizon has bet big on fiber. In fact, Verizon has invested billions of dollars acquiring fiber assets and building out our multi-purpose fiber footprint. Still, working through local regulations and licensing, and then subsequently installing fiber can have very long lead times. So Verizon and Ericsson engineers have found an alternative way of using millimeter wave spectrum for backhaul to accelerate deployment of 5G networks while awaiting the necessary fiber deployment.

Fiber is the ideal connection between our network facilities. It carries a ton of data, is reliable, and has a long roadmap ahead as far as technological advancements. It is essential. However, this new IAB technology allows us to deploy 5G service more quickly and then fill in the essential fiber at a later time, said Bill Stone, Vice President of Planning for Verizon.

IAB works by using airlink connections over mmWave spectrum instead of a fiber connection to send data throughout the network. By dynamically allocating a portion of bandwidth for consumers to send their data from their device to the cell tower, and using another portion for that data to be sent from the cell tower back to the core of the network, the need for fiber initially can be circumvented. Then, when fiber is installed at that location, the data being sent back to the rest of the network can be switched over to the fiber and the bandwidth can be redistributed for more capacity for customers.

Ericssons microwave and fiber mobile transport solutions are an important enabler for 5G services, said Ulf Forssen, Head of Standards & Technology, Development Unit Networks, Ericsson. This IAB proof of concept demonstrates a complementary solution, enabling faster deployment of the high-quality, high-performance 5G transport needed in a 5G world.

New resources for first responders

In addition to bringing new cell sites on air more efficiently, this proof-of-concept trial showed that mobile cell sites can also be connected using IAB. This becomes a critical asset for first responders and public safety agencies who need temporary cell coverage for search and rescue operations, disaster recovery efforts or other emergency situations. Verizon owns a fleet of mobile cell sites which are regularly deployed for these situations. However, until recently they have required a fiber connection to carry data, restricting where they can be deployed, or a satellite connection, which are limited and costly. Now, with IAB technology, coupled with portable generators for power, cell sites can be deployed more rapidly and to a wider range of locations.

When our first responders need us, we will be there with the resources they need to accomplish their mission critical work, said Stone. IAB technology gives us many more options to ensure communications resources are where our first responders need them anytime they call on us.

About Verizon

Verizon Communications Inc. (NYSE, Nasdaq: VZ) was formed on June 30, 2000 and is celebrating its 20th year as one of the worlds leading providers of technology, communications, information and entertainment products and services. Headquartered in New York City and with a presence around the world, Verizon generated revenues of $131.9 billion in 2019. The company offers voice, data and video services and solutions on its award winning networks and platforms, delivering on customers demand for mobility, reliable network connectivity, security and control.

VERIZONS ONLINE MEDIA CENTER: News releases, stories, media contacts and other resources are available at http://www.verizon.com/about/news/. News releases are also available through an RSS feed. To subscribe, visit http://www.verizon.com/about/rss-feeds/.

About Ericsson

Ericsson is a world leader in communications technology and services with headquarters in Stockholm, Sweden. Our organization consists of more than 111,000 experts who provide customers in 180 countries with innovative solutions and services. Together we are building a more connected future where anyone and any industry is empowered to reach their full potential. Net sales in 2016 were SEK 222.6 billion (USD 24.5 billion). The Ericsson stock is listed on Nasdaq Stockholm and on NASDAQ in New York. Read more on http://www.ericsson.com.

Media contacts: Karen SchulzKaren.Schulz@Verizonwireless.com864.561.1527

Jannie TongJannie.Tong@Ericsson.com214.415.0815

Originally posted here:
Deploying the 5G Ultra Wideband Network just got a little easier - GlobeNewswire