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By T. Camber Warren February 25 at 8:00 AM

Editors Note: This is the fourth in a series of posts drawn from articles in anewly published special issue ofJournal of Peace Research on Communication, Information, and Political Conflict. The entire special issue has been made available by Sage Publications here. For earlier posts, see here, here, and here.

Pundits and academics alike tell us that we are supremely fortunate to be living in a new information age. However, new findings which I present in an article in a new Journal of Peace Research special issue paint a far more complicated picture of the consequences of increased human connectivity.

Ours is certainly not an age of civil peace. At this moment, neighbors are killing neighbors, in organized groups, in ongoing civil conflicts spanning at least 36 separate countries. Such violence is shocking in its brutality; but through our revulsion we tend to forget that in each of these conflicts, the lines of animosity were not simply given by nature. They were actively produced. Humans are not born knowing the difference between a Serb police officer and a Croat police officer, or the difference between a Sunni mosque and a Shia mosque. The participants had to be taught how to hate, and who to kill. In other words, the production of collective violence is always preceded by the production of a certain kind of collective idea: the idea that it is justified, or even necessary, for us to kill them.

Increasing evidence indicates that the chances of success for such an idea can be powerfully influenced by the topology of the communication infrastructure present in a country. In previous work I presented global data showing that mass communication technologies, such as newspapers, radios, and televisions, have tended to favor state integration and stability. In that work I argued that by offering large nationwide loudspeakers to entrepreneurs of political ideas, such technologies incentivize the production of big ideas, which resonate on a national scale, and thereby facilitate the generation of unified national attachments. As a consequence, states with higher levels of mass media accessibility have been far less likely to experience violent internal divisions, as it has been more difficult for political entrepreneurs in these states to succeed on the basis of appeals to narrow sectarian loyalties, in the face of competition from larger-scale producers. That is, we might say that mass communication technologies function to strengthen economies of scale in the marketplace of ideas.

At first glance, one might think that the same would be true for social communication technologies, such as cellphones, which instead facilitate private interactions between individuals. The problem is that linkages facilitated by social media technologies tend to be connections between friends and acquaintances, who tend to be quite similar to each other in terms of ethnicity, religion, socioeconomic status, and any number of other factors. As a result of this tendency toward homophily, social media technologies tend to promote communications that flow along preexisting social and political divisions, rather than across them.

Such technologies, rather than generating pressures towards breadth and unity, may therefore incentivize political entrepreneurs to play to the local crowd, by telling them what all local crowds want to hear: that they are special, and righteous, and that their problems are caused by outsiders and heretics who are fundamentally different from themselves. In other words, it seems plausible that the segregated nature of social communication technologies will function to weaken economies of scale in the marketplace of ideas, making it easier for smaller-scale producers to succeed in promoting radicalized justifications for collective violence, even in the face of counter-narratives promoting unity and stability.

However, in order to test this conception of ideational competition, I needed a new kind of data. While existing work in this area had made great strides with sub-national measurements focusing on a single country or a single technology, this test would require sub-national measurements of media penetration that spanned multiple countries and multiple technological forms.

To accomplish this, I relied on surveys collected by the DHS Program, which report geo-coded household characteristics, across 24 African states, with survey dates ranging from 2005 to 2010. In particular, I focused on the ownership of a radio receiver as an indicator of mass media penetration, and ownership of a cellphone as an indicator of social media penetration. These measurements were then converted into continuous estimates of media penetration over space, utilizing spatially explicit interpolation (i.e. kriging), with parameters optimized through empirical cross-validation. Finally, to avoid the difficulties associated with regression on arbitrarily-sized spatial units, I estimated point process models, which generate statistical inferences by comparing covariate values at the locations of observed events to values measured at randomly simulated control points.

The results of the optimized kriging estimation can be seen in Figure 1. Radio penetration is displayed in purple, and cellular penetration in green, with absolute levels shown in the left panels, and relative levels in the right panel. The plot makes clear that the African context contains an enormous diversity of historical trajectories, with strong variation in technological penetration both within states and across states.

Originally posted here:
Monkey Cage: Segregation kills: How social media fuels violence in African states

Mind control the media is distorting consumer sentiment, an economist says.

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) Market-moving consumer confidence data is too volatile because of media sensationalism, according to a research note published Tuesday.

UBS economist Paul Donovan measured two leading sentiment gauges the Conference Boards consumer-confidence report and the University of Michigans consumer sentiment report and pitted the volatility of that data against the volatility of the underlying economic data.

Then he looked at the volatility of a leading business-side survey, the Institute for Supply Managements manufacturing report, and compared it to the volatility of the underlying economic data.

What he found using this blase barometer is that the consumer surveys show much more volatility than the business-sector gauge.

Donovan suggests its the medias fault. A hypothesis for a deterioration in the quality of sentiment is that survey respondents will be biased to answer survey questions according to their perception of how they should answer, not reflecting a rational assessment of their situation, he says.

He likened the situation to whats happened with media reporting of merger-and-acquisition rumors. Theres been an increase in reported rumors since 2006, and a further expansion after 2008, despite fewer actually mergers happening. These reported rumors drove stock prices, despite the quality of these rumors being suspect.

It seems unlikely that media sources will become less dramatic in their reporting of events, and indeed the highly competitive media environment suggest that dramatizing news will remain a feature of the information highway. Unless survey respondents start to disregard media reporting when they are generating their survey responses, we have to conclude that the value of surveys today is less than it was in the past, he said.

The Conference Boards consumer confidence report for February is due at 10 a.m. Eastern.

See the original post:
Capitol Report: Media sensationalism is distorting consumer confidence data, economist says

A student at a peace camp, held on the grounds of the Southeast Asia Rural Social Leadership Institute in Manresa, Cagayan de Oro City, raised a troubling, provocative question during a session I took part in last Saturday. Given all the speculation and inaccuracy and rank irresponsibility in media coverage of the Mamasapano incident (these were his premises, shared it seemed to me by many other students in the peace camp, a good number of whom were Muslim): Does the media even have the right to be believed?

We should see this pained question first as an indictment of the media in general, but then also as a challenge. I am still processing the question in my head, but here are a couple of preliminary answers. The amount of drivel that has been said to fill airtime on radio and TV, or opinion columns in print and online, supposedly in pursuit of the truth behind the Mamasapano incident, has truly been astonishing. The inanities uttered by senators and congressmen, sudden experts in the conflict in parts of Mindanao, have reached a new low. The result has been a general sense of uncertainty and outrage, always a dangerous mix. (It was toxic enough to push former Tarlac governor Tingting Cojuangco over the edge of a new level of ridiculousness; she now imagines she is the mother of the dozens slain in Mamasapanoby what alchemy we do not know.)

But I also encouraged the students at the peace camp to persevere. There are bad sources of information in the media ecosystem, yes, but there are also good ones. Find out who they are, and support them. Better yet, join your voices to theirs. Of the three media roles (standard, search, social), the students had control over the third; they should use it to put pressure on the first.

* * *

Upon the invitation of the esteemed Fr. Catalino Arevalo, SJ, I attended a Theological Hour at the Loyola School of Theology in Quezon City last Wednesday, featuring Fr. Gustavo Irrazabal, STD, the Argentine professor of moral theology, on Theology of the People and Theology of Liberation: Two Latin American Perspectives on Faith and Social Justice.

What is this theology of the people, which once again prevailed in the landmark Aparecida Document of 2007 (which Jorge Mario Cardinal Bergoglio edited) and was referenced once more in the apostolic exhortation Evangelii Gaudium of 2013?

As I understand it, it is a variation of the theology of liberation, which spurns the Marxist (and pseudo-universal) analysis on which that theology is based, and instead embraces the particular cultural context of a community of believers. This particularity of culture is I think what allows Irrazabal to assert that the theology of the people may help Catholic Social Teaching attain not an abstract universality but a concrete universality.

In Irrazabals schema, the historical subject of the theology of liberation is the poor, while that of the theology of the people is the people/nation. In TL (to use his abbreviations), liberation is understood as primarily socioeconomic. In TP, it is understood as cultural-religious.

TPs immediate connection to Pope Francis, as I understand it, is in the privileging of popular religiosity. It is seen, as Irrazabal noted, as the core of Latin American culture and, as such, as the wisdom of the people. There are challenges, to be sure. (Irrazabal: For example, in popular religiosity, where is the resurrection?) But the basic idea that the people know what it means to believe, that in fact religion is not opiate but elixir, is liberatingand is one reason why many Catholics from the Third World respond to Pope Francis so.

* * *

View original post here:
Medias right to be believed

AN INDEPENDENT, unbiased and diverse media landscape is, to me, what keeps our democratic society in check.

Without it, the voting public would be uninformed, easily persuaded and controlled by whoever has the most power and money.

As a journalism student, media is my passion and journalism a profession built upon ethics and a responsibility to serve the public.

In the digital age, consumers have unprecedented control over which forms of journalism dominate.

The mainstream media, however, is often criticised for portraying the exact opposite of these ideals. In a recent poll by Reader's Digest ranking professions by trustworthiness, Journalists ranked 42 out of a possible 50, just scraping in above salespeople, politicians and CEO's.

I find it ironic that the people that often expose politicians and CEO's for being untrustworthy are not regarded much more highly themselves.

As in any profession, there exists a minority that perhaps do not fulfil their duty statement but if you look hard enough good, purposeful journalism is abundant.

Increasingly, Australian media is dominated by two major conglomerates: Rupert Murdoch's NewsCorp and Fairfax Media.

Outside of these monopolies however you enter the realm of independent journalism; journalism that primarily aims to inform and educate, rather than simply sell.

In the digital age, consumers have unprecedented control over which forms of journalism dominate.

See original here:
Trustworthy, reliable journalism will come if you demand it

Independent filmmaker Dean Francis is looking to social media to get his new movie Drown into Australian cinemas.

Mr Francis has distribution deals in America, the UK and Europe but he is using a cinema-on-demand platform, Tugg, instead of the traditional film distribution model to get Drown onto local screens.

"The take-up internationally has been really enthusiastic and fantastic," the Australian director and producer told AAP.

"Here in this country I think there's a sense in which it's quite hard to market a film that is actually as edgy as our film.

"I don't know whether it's just that it's potentially perceived as a gay film, although that's certainly not its only focus, or whether it's that we're just saying something that's maybe a bit uncomfortable for the distributors to feel like they can push to audiences."

Traditionally distributors control what movies are shown on the big screen but with Tugg anyone can act as a distributor by organising a screening at a cinema - provided they get 60 people to pre-buy tickets.

Mr Francis said the film, which explores issues such as gay people in sport and one-punch violence, has gained enormous traction on social media and is doing well using the cinema-on-demand model.

He said the partnering of Tugg, which has been operating in the US for three years, with Australian film distributor Leap Frog Films was a "golden opportunity" for a film like Drown.

Unlike his first feature Road Train, Mr Francis opted to bypass traditional film funding bodies for Drown.

"On this particular project we opted to go down the path of doing this as a very low budget film that would rely on the support of the community both financially and in terms of people actually working on the film for the love of it basically."

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Aust filmmaker's social media distribution