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In February 2020, PK Valsala, a 45-year-old single woman from Kerala, south India, went to Oman to start a job as a domestic worker. She was sent to Kish Island in Iran by her Omani employer to change her tourist visa into a work visa. She landed on 22 February and was scheduled to return to Oman on 26 February.

I thought that I would be able to change my visa and re-enter Oman in a week or so, she says. But then the coronavirus hit. The very next day, Oman closed it air borders, then Iran too.

At first, she wasnt too alarmed. My employer called me and told me not to worry. He sent some money to the hotel where I was staying, which was enough to cover my expenses for for two weeks. He told me that everything would be fine after that time. But that wasnt the case.

Valsala found herself stranded on Kish Island, a popular tourist resort in the Persian Gulf, for 142 days. She struggled for food and even faced eviction from the hotel where she was staying because she could no longer afford to pay her bills, and neither could her employer.

However, a few social organisations in Oman supported her and she was finally repatriated to India in July, along with 700 Indian fisherman who were also stranded on the Iranian coast in an Indian Navy Ship.

Upon returning to India, Valsala who had previously worked in Saudi Arabia and Kuwait thought that she would be able to return to Oman for work, but her employer was unable to hire her again.

Before the coronavirus there were an estimated 23 million migrant workers in the Gulf region. The twin shock of the coronavirus pandemic and falling oil prices led the IMF to predict that the economies of Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, Oman, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (also known as the Gulf Cooperation Council, or GCC) would contract by a massive 7.1 per cent in 2020.

Valsalas was one of the eight million jobs (or 13.2 per cent of working hours) that the International Labour Organization (ILO) estimates was lost across the entire Arab region in the second quarter of 2020.

For the migrant workers who have managed to stay in the countries where they live and work, the Institute for Human Rights and Business says: Many [migrant workers] have been confined to poor living conditions in cramped dormitories, experienced job loss or non-payment of wages, been forced by employers to take unpaid leave or reduced wages, or repatriated back home with few to no alternative work options.

But for those who were forced to return home or who have been unable to leave their home country to start a new job abroad, the situation has been mixed. There is not yet any conclusive data on just how badly the coronavirus has impacted labour migration in South Asia (which is one of the biggest hubs of migrant labour globally) but the few statistics that are available paint a stark picture.

Both India and Bangladesh, two of the biggest sending countries in the region, witnessed a colossal dip in migration outflow in 2020. According to eMigrate, a channel set up by the Indian government to ensure fair migration, 368,043 people migrated abroad through the eMigrate channel in 2019; in 2020, that number was just 88,694, representing a 75 per cent decrease.

Meanwhile, official data from the Bangladesh Bureau of Manpower Employment and Training also reveals a 74 percent decrease in migration outflow in 2020 (181, 218 people) compared to 2019 (700,159 people).

The economic situation in Oman forced Valsala to look for a job in her home state of Kerala. In September, she got a job working 10 hours a day for US$245 a month which is about US$100 less than what she would have earned in Oman. On top of that, the recruitment agency was charging her US$40 a month in commission. The agency is exploitative and doesnt even allow sick leave. Also, due to the Covid-19 restrictions, it is quite risky to go to unknown houses, stay there and do the job. So, I quit in November, Valsala tells Equal Times.

She is desperately trying to get back to the Gulf. But at the moment, there are not many jobs there. Even if there are jobs, the salary is too low. I was offered US$320 in the Gulf in February. Now, agents are telling me that I will get only US$200, she laments.

Moazzem Hossain is a 33-year-old Bangladeshi worker who lost his job as a mason in Saudi Arabia last year. Although he was sent back to Bangladesh due to the economic crisis, he is also trying to return to the Gulf.

I am now working as a construction worker in Dhaka. I get paid just US$170 a month and with that, I have to take care of my six-member family. It is hard to survive. In Saudi Arabia, I was able to earn around US$350 a month, Hossain tells Equal Times.

I have approached an agent in Dhaka. He is telling me that job opportunities are too low in the Arab Gulf now. He is also asking for an increased recruitment fee. When I went in 2017, I paid US$1,700 in fees. Now, I would have to pay US$2,000. But Hussain says that he is willing to pay the extra money if it lands him a job abroad.

When asked whether the fall in migration outflow is likely to continue for the foreseeable future, Shabari Nair, an ILO labour migration specialist for South Asia, said it was too early to tell. Although he notes the gradual resumption of foreign recruitment in some destination countries, Nair says: It would be better to assess this situation along the lines of the demands from the countries of destination, the specific sectors that demand these workers and the skills that the workers possess.

He says he hopes governments and employers will use the disruption caused by the pandemic as an opportunity to build a better recruitment process for migrant workers, one that ensures that workers are protected right from the very start. Nair also predicts that there may be some changes in the sectors that have the most vacancies. Healthcare workers, for example, may be in high demand, Nair says, adding that sending governments may also start looking at new migration corridors in Africa and Europe.

Like many low- to middle-income countries, remittances from migrant workers play a significant role in the countries of South Asia: in India remittances are said to make up 3 per cent of GDP while in Nepal they account for 27 per cent.

It was predicted that the economic downturn triggered by the pandemic could have a massive impact on the money sent home by workers abroad, with an October 2020 report from the World Bank estimating that remittances in South Asia will fall from US$135 billion in 2020 to US$120 billion in 2021.

However, Nair says the impact of Covid-19 on global remittances is still unclear, with some South Asian countries reporting an even higher inflow of remittances than usual.

Shakirul Islam, the founding chair of Ovibashi Karmi Unnayan Program, a grassroots migrants organisation based in Dhaka, Bangladesh, is also assessing the situation carefully. He tells Equal Times that research conducted by his organisaton with potential and returnee migrant workers (those who were forced to return during the pandemic) shows that more than 72 percent of them (among 398 people) are still waiting for the situation to improve before they return overseas.

But this is a ticking time economic time bomb, he warns. Currently these workers are not getting any good jobsif situation doesnt get better in a year, then all migrant sending Asian countries will be facing a very tough time. We shouldnt forget that there are no jobs at home at the moment. If these people cant work in host countries either, then everything is going to be a problem.

Read more here:
South Asia's migrant workers are facing a jobs crisis both at home and (...) - Equal Times

ANALYSIS/OPINION:

Jeh Johnson, who headed the Department of Homeland Security under President Obama, has said that 1,000 apprehensions in a single day along the southwest border would be considered a bad day. Not only is he correct, but I recall his frustration vividly while serving as chief of the Border Patrol in 2016 as the illegal migration flow was reaching alarming numbers. By those standards, Mr. Johnson wouldnt be having many good days at the moment.

In what can only be described as a massive self-inflicted wound, the Biden administration has swiftly, and without hesitation, taken a wrecking ball to Americas border security and enforcement capabilities ending construction of the border wall; stopping lawful deportations; terminating agreements with our neighbors to the south that helped stanch asylum fraud into the U.S.; ending the Migrant Protection Protocols program, which was responsible for the end of catch and release; dismantling interior enforcement authorities, which will result in thousands of gang members and criminals being released into cities across the country; and promising free health care, expansion of Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals (DACA), and an amnesty to millions of illegal aliens currently in the U.S.

Hes only been in office for a few weeks.

Currently, Border Patrol apprehensions of illegal aliens along the southern border have skyrocketed to roughly 3,500 per day, although the real number of illegal crossers, when taking into account those who turn back into Mexico to avoid apprehension and those who elude detection, is likely closer to 4,500 per day.

In January, Customs and Border Protection (CBP) apprehended almost 80,000 migrants trying to illegally enter the U.S., far surpassing what we encountered in January of 2020. At this rate well exceed the 100,000 apprehensions mark per month by March, essentially turning back the clock to the humanitarian crisis of 2019.

With a stroke of a pen, President Biden has thrust the country into another illegal migration crisis.

Instead of helping the nation that is not only desperately trying to recover from a deadly pandemic, but is also seeing an economic maelstrom strike its businesses and workers his priorities have withdrawn and removed almost every tool and policy which provided the U.S. with the ability to effectively address illegal migration.

And what is the Biden administrations strategy to deal with the new crisis they created? To replace the tools and policies he swiftly removed? He has created task forces to review the migration issue.

After signaling the borders would open, President Biden is sending a really strong message to the migrants that now is not the time to come.

The Biden administrations actions are not only absurd but devoid of any meaningful understanding of what drives illegal migration and how the cartels and human smuggling organizations exploit the loopholes, our policies, and the migrants themselves. If your strategy consists of releasing those who illegally cross our border, protecting them from lawful deportation, and rewarding their continuing illegal behavior with free health care and amnesty - why wouldnt they continue to come? Its not really complicated; if you encourage, incentivize and facilitate unlawful behavior, thats exactly what youll get.

The Biden administration has rejected the repeated pleas from countless law enforcement experts, as well as the data and science behind border security, to address this crisis in a thoughtful and meaningful way. And now, our borders are less secure, our country less safe, and the mission of the men and women on the front lines of our nations borders is made more dangerous.

The only remaining authority holding back the current crisis level numbers from becoming catastrophic, is the Center for Disease Control and Preventions order, known as Title 42 (T42), which gives CBP the authority to remove illegal aliens from the border expeditiously. Rather than being brought into CBP facilities, they are released back into Mexico.

But were already seeing cracks forming in this authority. For now, its holding, but when T42 falls and its only a matter of when it does the 4,500 a day will overwhelm our immigration system. Local border communities, as well as communities in the interior of the U.S., will be flooded with illegal aliens as catch and release will be the only alternative.

The Biden administration is playing a dangerous game by removing every effective tool and policy and putting their hope that T42 will remain in place long enough for them to figure out how to undo the crisis theyve facilitated. Theyre simply kicking the catastrophic crisis can down the road, but its already too late.

Mark Morgan is the former acting director of Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) and U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) and a senior fellow at the Federation for American Immigration Reform (FAIR).

See the original post here:
Don't blink, the border crisis has already begun - Washington Times

A renewed influx would put pressure on immigration courts already straining under a massive backlog of asylum cases. Those who favor more restrictive immigration policies say that migrants who lose their cases could go underground, choosing to remain in the country unlawfully and adding to the estimated 10 million undocumented people already in the United States.

It was predictable that there would be virtually no honeymoon for the Biden administration on the multiple crises that are displacing persons in the Northern Triangle states of Central America and elsewhere, said Donald Kerwin, executive director of the Center for Migration Studies, a nonpartisan think tank.

These include the two hurricanes that destroyed many livelihoods and homes in Guatemala and Honduras; the devastating effect of the pandemic on economies across Latin America; and continued gang control of many communities, often accompanied by extortion and violence.

The Biden administration should be credited with its commitment to address the conditions uprooting Central Americans, Mr. Kerwin said, but this will be a very long-term process, and, in the meantime, people have been forced to flee.

Before former President Donald J. Trump took office, it had been the longstanding practice through several administrations to allow people facing persecution in their home countries to enter the United States and submit petitions for asylum. Some new migrants were held in detention until their cases were decided while others went free.

But Mr. Trump derided such policies as catch and release, and in 2019, he imposed a requirement that applicants wait in Mexico until their asylum requests were approved or denied. In March of last year, his administration invoked a health emergency law to effectively seal the border during the pandemic except to citizens and legal residents of the United States. Those who attempted to cross were summarily expelled back to Mexico.

But Mexico in recent days has begun enforcing a law passed in November that bars holding children under 12 in government custody. As a result, it has stopped accepting Central American families with young children back into Mexico, at least along some stretches of the border with Texas, forcing the United States to keep them. In order to avoid holding large numbers of people in shelters or immigration detention centers during a health crisis, Border Patrol has been releasing some of them to join family and friends across the United States.

Read more:
Migrant Families Force Biden to Confront New Border Crisis - The New York Times

It is not improbable that we will face a second big migration crisis after the coronavirus pandemic, Monika Sie Dhian Ho believes.

Monika Sie Dhian Ho is the general director of Clingendael, the Netherlands Institute of International Relations.

Clingendael is an independent think tank and academy on international affairs and diplomacy which seeks to shape a more secure, sustainable and just world. It has traditionally had an impact on the shaping of foreign policy in the Netherlands whilst Sie advises the Dutch government on security and foreign affairs matters.

In an interview with Kathimerini, Sie warns about a possible incoming migration crisis due to the financial repercussions that Covid-19 will eventually leave behind. She maintains that a closer relationship between the European Union and neighboring Turkey will be beneficial to both parties in dealing with a hard future on migration and, finally, she expresses her belief that the EU is still not ready to intercept new migration waves confidently.

Countries such as Hungary, Austria and the Netherlands have refused to take in any significant number of migrants. The EU hasnt been able politically or legally to enforce a fair distribution of migrants across its member-states. Whats the reason behind such a failure?

We find ourselves in a situation whereby every country has something to complain about. Since the migration crisis began in 2015, we have not managed to reform our institutions, we have not made the EU more resilient to crises. After big crises you would expect that this reform would take place like it did on the economic front. The different interests of EU members have to do with differences in location; at one point the Dutch PM said that its due to geographical bad luck. This will not do on the negotiation table of course you cannot say that in a union you have a geographical bad luck and I hope that our PM knows that by now. Yes, there are differences in where the migrants want to go and in the economic situation of the different EU countries but we have not come up with an intelligent plan yet. The Commissions pact is a positive first step and is responsive to the interests of the different EU members. Our advice is that there is urgency to act now. We need an internal grand deal as well as an external bargain with third countries of origin. We need to build trust that the internal and external bargains are feasible through actively showing that the deals are made out of sincerity and common values.

Weve seen that this geographical bad luck rhetoric and attitude has prevailed on the migration issue. If it persists, will it weaken the EU?

Yes, that the EU will become weaker is the starting point of discussion. What will happen then is that countries in the front line will not be capable or willing to register incoming migrants. I think the Northern countries have come to understand that this fundamental injustice will not hold. If they hold on to this position, they know that they will face waves of secondary movements. So, they understand that a new internal deal is absolutely necessary. The Netherlands is well aware that the Dublin system needs reform and that relocation of migrants is necessary. The pandemic makes this challenge even harder.

How are Covid-19 and migration linked?

In African countries the health consequences of the pandemic have been less intense than in Europe. However, the economic consequences are devastating. Migrants lose their jobs abroad due to the pandemic and send in less remittances. The oil shocks created by the pandemic impose economic obstacles and the aftershocks of the disease pushthese countries into deeper crises. African migration has increased despite the pandemic. For example, irregular departures from Tunisia to Italy have significantly increased. Therere severe economic migrant crises created by the pandemic combined with potential political crises also triggered by Covid-19. It is not improbable that we will face a second big migration crisis after the disease. In 2011, we had the Arabic Spring due to unemployment and in Syria we had a war. This was the runup of the refugee crisis of 2015. The Arab Spring itself was the runup of the 2008 economic crisis. The Covid-19 crisis is expected to potentially be even more severe so Europe needs to become truly robust on migration policy now to overcome a hard future on this front.

Turkey is Greeces neighbor but also the EUs. What is the impact of the quality of our relationship with Turkey on the migrantswelfare?

Turkey hosts almost 4 million refugees. The EU is not willing to welcome those 4 million refugees, they prefer that these refugees remain in Turkey. Turkey is ready to receive them, and there children can go to school and parents can find jobs. The EU members contribute by paying those organizations in Turkey that facilitate these migrant populations. The migrants deserve these funds. Of course, the consequence of this is that countries like Turkey but also Morocco and Tunisia find out that they get leverage in their relationship against EU countries. We have to arrive on a partnership that is based much more on common interest and equality in the relationship. Specifically, what we need to do is twofold: Firstly, we need to continue offering Turkey the financial means to keep on sending migrant kids to school, and secondly, it is of high importance that we build a tracing mechanism to ensure that the funds we offer to Turkey end up benefiting the migrants solely.

It seems that migrant populations integrate better in the US than they do in Europe. We have seen that recently they have wreaked havoc in Austria and in France. How do you explain this reality? Are we witnessing a clash of civilizations?

The emphasis on work in the United States has been a key factor for migrant integration. People are welcome to work and they find work almost immediately after arrival. Work is a crucial aspect to integration. Secondly, what also plays a role is that the EU has not emphasized adequately what the European Way of Life is. The EC, by appointing Margaritis Schinas as VP, has acknowledged that there exists a European way of life which we want to protect, defend and develop. When welcoming a migrant, it is important that you explain to them clearly what this way of life is so that person knows how to behave and integrate. The key values of our society need explanation, therefore work and clarity about the societal model are significant factors for integration. Without rules and transparency, problems are unavoidable.

Link:
Europe could face another big migration wave after the pandemic, STEFANOS TSAKIRIS | Kathimerini - http://www.ekathimerini.com

SAN PEDRO SULA, Honduras (AP) Nory Yamileth Hernndez and her three teenage children have been living in a battered tent under a bridge on the outskirts of San Pedro Sula since Hurricane Eta flooded their home in November.

They were there in the dust under the rumbling traffic, surrounded by other storm refugees, when Hurricane Iota hit barely two weeks later. And when the first migrant caravan of the year shuffled by in January, only fear and empty pockets kept them from joining Honduras growing exodus.

I cried because I dont want to be here anymore, the 34-year-old Hernndez said. She had joined the first big caravan in October 2018, but didnt make it to Mexico before turning back. Shes sure she will try again soon. Theres a lot of suffering.

WATCH: Biden rolls back Trumps immigration policies with a raft of initiatives

In San Pedro Sula, Honduras economic engine and the departure gate for thousands of Honduran migrants in recent years, families like Hernndezs are caught in a cycle of migration. Poverty and gang violence push them out and increasingly aggressive measures to stop them, driven by the United States government, scuttle their efforts and send them back.

The economic damage of the COVID-19 pandemic and the devastation wrought by Novembers hurricanes have only added to those driving forces. Word of a new administration in the U.S. with a softer approach to migrants has raised hopes, too.

After her failed attempt to migrate in 2018, Hernndez returned to scraping out a living in San Pedro Sula. Last year, she sold lingerie door-to-door in one of the countrys most dangerous neighborhoods. But the storms wiped out her inventory and her customers had limited ability to pay her for items they bought on credit.

I couldnt charge people because we all lost, Hernndez said. We all have needs, but you have to be sensitive. They dont have anything to pay with and why go to collect?

Chamelecon is a neighborhood of low, tin-roofed houses and small shops with barred windows on the outskirts of the city. Only two of its streets are paved, including one that is the dividing line between the rival gangs Mara Salvatrucha and Barrio 18.

At the bridge where Hernndezs tent is pitched, tattooed youths smoke marijuana and residents slop around in rubber boots. The violence continues, with newspapers talking about finding bodies wrapped in plastic.

In December, Hernndez got sick with fever, nausea and, she said, her brain hurt. She went to a hospital, but was never tested for COVID-19. In January, her eldest son writhed in their tent with fever.

The father of her youngest son lives in Los Angeles and encouraged her to get money together for another trip. He told me that this year is going to be good because they had gotten rid of Trump and the new president was going to help migrants, Hernndez said.

Within weeks, U.S. President Joe Biden signed nine executive orders reversing Trump measures related to family separation, border security and immigration. But fearing a surge in immigration, the administration also sent the message that little will change quickly for migrants arriving at the southern U.S. border.

Hernndez recently found work cleaning flooded streets, but she still hasnt been able to tackle the house where she once lived with 11 others. Its still filled with several inches of mud and foul water.

The assembly plants that surround San Pedro Sula and power its economy are still not back to pre-hurricane capacity amid the pandemic.

The Sula Valley, Honduras most agriculturally productive, was so heavily damaged that international organizations have warned of a food crisis. The World Food Program says 3 million Hondurans face food insecurity, six times higher than before. The dual hurricanes affected an estimated 4 million of Honduras 10 million people. The area is also Honduras hardest-hit by COVID-19 infections.

Its a vicious cycle, said Dana Graber Ladek, head of the International Organization for Migration office in Mexico. Theyre suffering poverty, violence, the hurricanes, unemployment, domestic violence, and with that dream of a new (U.S.) administration, of new opportunities, theyre going to try (to migrate) again and again.

The last several attempted caravans have been foiled, first in Mexico and later in Guatemala, but the daily flow of migrants moved by smugglers continues and has shown signs of increasing. The hope and misinformation associated with the new U.S. administration helps that business too.

The traffickers are using this opportunity of desperation, of political changes in the United States to spread rumors and false information, Graber Ladek said.

In January, San Pedro Sula was abuzz with plans to migrate.

READ MORE: DOJ rescinds zero tolerance immigration rule

Gabriela, 29, feeling like she had nothing to lose, went north just days before a few thousand Hondurans headed out of San Pedro Sula on Jan. 15. She had lost her cleaning job in the pandemic and the rest of her life to the hurricanes. She asked that her full name be withheld because she had made it to southern Mexico and feared being targeted.

Gabriela paid a smuggler, paid off authorities along her route and walked through jungle as part of her journey north.

She had lived in La Lima, a suburb of San Pedro Sula. Small businesses there have begun to reopen, but in outlying neighborhoods, the streets are still full of debris, dead animals, snakes and burning mattresses.

Everyone wanted to leave, said Juan Antonio Ramrez, an elderly resident. His children and grandchildren were among some 30 people who spent six days stranded on a corrugated metal roof surrounded by floodwaters in November. A lot of people went from here, but they all came back. The problem is theres a barrier and they send them back from Guatemala.

After the 2018 caravans and rising number of migrants at the U.S. border in early 2019, the U.S. government pressured Mexico and Central American countries to do more to slow migration across their territories. Numbers fell in the latter half of 2019 and Mexico and Guatemala effectively stopped caravans in 2020. In December, a caravan leaving San Pedro Sula didnt even make it out of Honduras.

But the U.S. has reported a rising number of encounters at the border, showing that beyond the caravans, the migration flow is increasing again.

In September, Lisethe Contreras husband made it to Miami. The La Lima resident said it took him three months and $12,000 paid to smugglers. Shes thinking of going too, but for the moment has her small business selling necessities.

Biden has promised investment in Central America to get at the root causes of immigration, but no one expects to see any change soon. Honduras primary elections are scheduled for March and nongovernmental organizations worry any aid will come with political strings attached.

Hernndez admits confusion and disillusion. I dont know. They all promise and then dont follow through, she said. I dont see a good future here.

Gabriela, already halfway to her goal of reaching the U.S., has no thoughts of turning back, even after 19 people, believed to be mostly Guatemalan migrants, were found shot and burned in northern Mexico just across from Texas.

I only go back to Honduras if Immigration sends me back, she said. And if that happens Ill try again with my son.

See more here:
Desperation grows in battered Honduras, fueling migration - PBS NewsHour