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UK Border Force officials travel in a RIB with migrants picked up at sea whilst Crossing the English Channel, as they arrive at the Marina in Dover, southeast England on August 15, 2020. BEN STANSALL

London A man who had just landed on a British beach after crossing the English Channel in a dinghy from France was reportedly attacked earlier this month by a witness who saw him arrive, as the coronavirus pandemic contributes to a surge in attempts by migrants and refugees to enter the United Kingdom by boat.

Police opened an investigation into the attack and said the victim, in his 20s, was not seriously injured.

"While urgent action is needed by the French and the (British) Home Office, there is no excuse for violence or vigilante behavior," local member of Parliament, Natalie Elphicke, said.

August saw more people attempt to make the more-than-20-mile trip across the channel and enter the U.K. in this way than has ever been recorded in a single month, according to media reports.

Britain's Home Office does not maintain a running total of migrant channel crossings, but journalists calculate the numbers based on ad hoc information released by the government. BBC News calculates that more than 5,000 people have tried to make the trip from France so far this year the highest number on record and, according to Sky News, more than five-times last year's total.

But refugee advocacy groups, including the United Nation Refugee agency, UNHCR, say the U.K. is not facing a migrant crisis.

"What is happening is that the movement of people has changed, and it has become a lot more visible because of the COVID situation," UNHCR External Relations Officer Laura Padoan told CBS News.

"We're seeing far fewer lories (trucks) being able to cross through the channel, so people are resorting to using smugglers' dinghies," she said, explaining that it's too soon to tell if the overall number of asylum seekers has increased, or if it's just the number of people attempting to cross by boat versus other methods.

"What we're calling for governments to do is expand the safe, legal routes that make that immigration route for families to be together again fairer and less restrictive," she said.

As more people attempt to cross the English Channel one of the busiest shipping lanes in the world there are also more unaccompanied minors among them. Many land on beaches in the English county of Kent.

"They tell us that they were very cold and wet and scared, some that there were too many people in the boat and they didn't want to get in but they were sort of forced to get in by the people smugglers," Brigid Chapman, spokesperson for the Kent Refugee Action Network, told CBS News. "They're just extremely grateful to be here."Last Monday, the local government in Kent said it did not have the capacity to take care of any more children arriving on its shores.

"I am deeply disappointed and concerned that, despite our many efforts to avoid this unthinkable situation, it has been necessary to make this announcement today," Kent County Council Leader Roger Gough said in a statement. He appealed to the central government and other counties across the U.K. to help care for the unaccompanied children.

"We are grateful for the support some other local authorities have given recently but unfortunately, due to the continued high level of arrivals, it has not been enough to make a real difference to the numbers," said Sue Chandler, Cabinet member for Integrated Children's Services in Kent.

Chapman said the county council has been flagging the issue for months to the central government, and part of the reason it's overwhelmed is reluctance by other local councils to take on unaccompanied minors because of a lack of funding. She said the U.K. as a whole could handle the number of migrants and refugees arriving by boat, and that Britain still receives many fewer asylum claims than other countries.

"With a lot of the children that we work with, they didn't actually have any choice about where they went. They were put into the hands of people smugglers. And they really, you know, they traveled at night, they were often beaten and deprived of food because the people smugglers need to keep them sort of compliant," Chapman told CBS News.

"Normally parents have asked for them to come to the U.K. because they may have a cousin or something, or somebody they think can kind of help that young person to make a start in life," she said.

Earlier this month, British Home Secretary Priti Patel created a new position a Clandestine Channel Threat Commander to address the rising number of migrants and refugees trying to cross the channel in small boats.

"The number of illegal small boat crossings is appalling," Patel said in a statement. "We are working to make this route unviable and arresting the criminals facilitating these crossings and making sure they are brought to justice."

The government also announced it was considering plans to deploy large navy vessels to the channel, which refugee groups said would be dangerous and could even prove deadly.

Britain's Royal Navy told CBS News it currently has no plans to deploy any ships, but that it was dedicating 10 staff members to help with planning and logistics.

"It's really important that the political rhetoric is in proportion to the scale of what's happening on the channel, which is manageable and the numbers are low," said Padoan, of UNHCR.

"I feel like a lot of the mainstream media is dancing to a very xenophobic tune at the moment, and there are certain politicians that are really trying to stir things up," said Chapman, of the Kent Refugee Action Network. "I don't understand what they're trying to achieve with it, but the situation is becoming really, really toxic."

Late last Thursday, a video message featuring a refugee was projected onto the cliffs of Dover overlooking the English Channel by the activist group, "Led By Donkeys."

"Britain is not facing a refugee crisis. There are around 30 million refugees around the world, and Britain is home to only 1 percent of them," Hassan, a man who introduced himself as an asylum seeker who made the boat journey across the channel five years ago, said.

"Britain is, however, facing other crises, but we are being used again as a distraction from the actual crises facing this country, caused by the people who are running it," he continued, "They are using us to distract you from how badly they have managed during this pandemic."

Read the rest here:
Why coronavirus is driving more migrants and refugees to try to reach Britain by boat - CBS News

THE body of a teenage asylum seeker is washed up on a French beach.

He was, reported the BBC, a desperate 16-year-old seeking sanctuary in Britain another victim of corruption, violence and, by implication, the heartless Tories.

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In fact, the poor soul was 28-year-old Sudanese Abdulfatah Hamdallah, whose official asylum claim had been ruled unacceptable by the French authorities.

A non-swimmer, he stole a toy dinghy and tried to cross Europes busiest sea lane before puncturing his flimsy craft with a spade used as a paddle a mile offshore.

Whichever way you look at it, this is a tragic story.

Yet for some bizarre reason, Britain is getting the blame.

Why, wail the shroud-wavers, are WE putting lives at risk?

In truth, migrants are the raw material for a cruel criminal industry.

Countless young men pay people-smugglers billions to cross continents and reach British soil.

At least one in four lies about his age, according to social care records. Many are well over 18, as was 28-year-old Abdulfatah.

In this age-limit lottery, winners hit the jackpot with free accommodation, healthcare and spending money up to the age of 25.

All claim to be from war zones, fleeing for their lives.

Some are telling the truth. Many make false claims, both about their age and their origins. Some, reportedly coached by aid workers, concoct fake personal histories and nationalities and destroy evidence of their true identity.

With 50,000 illegals now parked in temporary accommodation around the country, hard-pressed officials struggle to tell one from the other.

In fact, only some are in genuine fear for their lives.

The United Nations warns seven out of ten coming through Libya are economic opportunists using criminal gangs to jump the queue. Some are battle-hardened Islamists.

They will remain on the hook to gangsters who shipped them over.

Most who reach France have been officially ordered, at some point along the way, to leave Europe.

Many complain bitterly about French racism and ill-treatment. With every other country moving them on, Britain just 22 miles away is their last hope.

Once here, thanks to zealous human rights lawyers they are unlikely ever to leave and, under our liberal laws, might one day bring their family over to join them.

This explains why they are desperate.

France could solve this crisis by closing camps and cracking down on criminal gangs.

Instead, as The Sun reported on Saturday, Emmanuel Macron is using it as a Brexit negotiating weapon.

If we want a neighbourly hand, we must cough up another 30million and abandon our rights to sovereign status over fishing and human rights laws.

Macron is happy to see migrants leaving.

He thinks it is Britains fault for being so soft an undeniable fact which Boris Johnson is, I am told, about to address. The whole point of Brexit was taking back control.

Covid has exposed the shocking, perhaps even deadly, lack of such control at the heart of government.

Ministers pull levers and nothing happens on PPE and Covid testing. In June, they demanded a return to school. Nothing happened.

Britain is paying the price for an unaccountable bureaucracy, the Whitehall Blob. And for a legion of grotesquely expensive quangos such as Public Health England, identified here on Sunday by former Tory leader Iain Duncan Smith.

We are tied in chains by lawyers posing as human rights champions and troublemakers who challenge decisions with costly and time-consuming judicial reviews.

Well, I am here to tell you, folks, this is all about to end ...I hope.

Whitehall Remainers are seething over a range of yet-to-be revealed measures which will sweep away EU-style meddling and regulation and hand power back where it belongs: In elected political hands.

Comment

THE SUN SAYSBrussels is still bent on ensuring that Britain somehow loses out

Comment

ALLY ROSSHarry Hills World Of TV is a safe space for un-PC comedy

Comment

GEOFF PALMERBanning anthems from the Proms will only manipulate history & create confusion

Comment

THE SUN ON SUNDAY SAYSPresident Macron and his pals must drop their outrageous tactics

Comment

JEREMY CLARKSONRobots can't fetch slippers, let alone steer a car in rush-hour on the M25

Illegal migrants will be sent back. Long legal wrangles will be terminated. Judicial reviews will be effectively abolished.

Human rights laws will be tailored to fit the needs of Britain, not Brussels.

Thanks to Brexit, the Bonfire Of The Quangos is about to begin...at last.

Free world problems

THE US presidential elections are private grief, but every Western democracy has skin in this game.

The leadership of the Free World is being fought between two gaffe-prone third-raters, neither likely to last a full term.

Republican incumbent Donald Trump, 74, makes even his rare triumphs like the Israeli-Arab peace deal look shabby.

Dazzlingly dentured Democrat Joe Biden, 77, if victorious, will be remembered for turning a non-entity opportunist into the Free Worlds first black female leader if he fails to see out his term.

Chosen running-mate Kamala Harris might be a surprising success...or an unmitigated, untested and unelected disaster.

Neither Americas 150million voters nor the rest of the world will have a say.

GOT a story? RING The Sun on 0207 782 4104 or WHATSAPP on 07423720250 or EMAILexclusive@the-sun.co.uk

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Emmanuel Macron is trying to use the migrant crisis as a Brexit negotiating weapon - The Sun

A few months after President Donald Trump's 2016 election, official Texas State business brought me to two ICE immigration detention centers in South Texas. As a manager in the Texas Department of Public Safety's Intelligence and Counterterrorism Division, I had been coming to these normally noisy, filled-to-capacity facilities for years to interview detainees.

But the South Texas ICE Processing Center in Pearsall stood about as empty and silent as a ghost town, besides the Pakistanis and Somalis I'd come to see who'd been in for a while already. Same situation at the larger, usually packed-to-capacity Port Isabel center near Brownsville a few weeks later.

The empty hallways and cells at that moment were stark manifestation of a phenomenon that became known as the "Trump Effect". ICE intelligence officers at the facilities explained it to me at the time: Populations throughout Latin America, after hearing candidate Trump swear to build a wall, hike deportations, and otherwise crack down on illegal border entries, chose to shelter in place rather than cross the border.Apprehensions fell more than 70 percent for a time.

But now, the nation may face the equal but opposite "Biden Effect" should there be a change in administrations.

A Biden Effect could look like a sustained migrant crisis of the sort the United States and Europe have experienced from time to time. In this case, hundreds of thousands of Central Americans and others from around the world who have by now fully absorbed Biden's campaign promises a reversal of virtually all Trump immigration policies, an end to most deportations, free medical care, access to other welfare benefits, and various amnesties could cross through Mexico once again. If unopposed,the first migrants some in caravans, others travelling individually would swamp U.S. border asylum systems, and detention facilities. This is not without precedent, like the 2014-2015 unaccompanied-minor crisisand the 2018-2019 Central American caravans crisis.

Additional migrants, seeing the vanguard caravans succeed unhindered, would likely continue for as long as they, too, were unopposed. The swell nearly a million came over just in 2019 before Trump tamped it down with a medley of policies Biden promises to reverse would take up long-term illegal residence in cities across the country. They would do so believing that the new administration would do nothing to deport them and everything to sustain them indefinitely until eventual amnesty and citizenship.

If the Trump Effect proved anything, it was that economically distressed foreign populations closely monitor a humming social media communications grapevine about when and how American policies and practices make illegal immigration easier or harder, and therefore make their chances to permanently embed inside the United States higher or lower. Economic migrants are more willing to join caravans or pay big smuggling fees if they feel they can both get in and stay in. They stay home if they perceive they probably will be thrown back, their effort and payments for naught.

While Trump did much to decrease the chances for migrants successfully embedding in the U.S., Biden has messaged policies that all but guarantee success, starting with the reversal of Trump immigration policies by executive order, and going even further. For instance, one message heard very loud and clear was his March 2020 promise of a deportation moratorium on all illegally present aliens to include even most criminal aliens during his first 100 days in office, to be followed by a permanent extension for everyone but the most hardened criminal alien felons ("I don't count drunk driving as a felony," he even said).

Biden's online immigration platform offers a powerful incentive for resumptions of caravans that brought a million migrants in during 2018-2019 before Trump finally broke their momentum with a slew of different policies. Biden has promisedto end the highly effective "Remain in Mexico" pushback policy that keeps largely ineligible asylum claimants from disappearing into the American interior after they lose or abandon their claims.

During one primary debate, Biden was among those who raised his hand when the moderator asked which of them would favor providing illegal immigrants with free access to the nation's medical care system.

The shiniest gold ring Biden has dangled before the poor of Latin America and beyond is likely his promise to prioritize "a roadmap to citizenship for nearly 11 million undocumented immigrants". Regardless of the details of any such legislation, it would serve as a powerful incentive, sending the message that anyone who manages to get over the border would stand a good chance of securing permanent legal status.

All of this is more than merely pleasant music to the ears of people aspiring to live and work in the United Statesand to human smugglers and caravan organizers only too happy to facilitate. Taken altogether, it is reasonable to predict a sustained migrant crisis in the event of a change in administrations.

I reported early clues suggesting this prognosis during a January 2020 reporting trip to the Mexico-Guatemala border, where I interviewed migrants who, to my surprise, repeatedly told me that, because their chances of reaching the United States and staying had fallen to unacceptable lows under Trump, they would wait in Mexico, expecting him to lose reelection and a successor to remove the barriers. Tens of thousands like them were applying for Mexican asylum at the time because the Mexican national guard blocked all the roads north (at Trump's insistence) and Mexico was threatening to deport them unless they applied for Mexican asylum. As one of many of the Central American migrants and Mexican officials told me, of the decision to hang out in Mexico until Trump lost: "I'll wait for that because it would make things easier to get in."

An El Salvadoran woman coming to Mexico with a child said she'd chosen to live in Mexico, too, on the gamble that "Once Trump is defeated and the Democrats take over, things are going to get better."

Alma Delia Cruz, head of Mexico's asylum office in the southern state of Chiapas, told me she knew the majority of 70,000 asylum applicants her office was processing (up from just 76 the year before) had no intention of staying in Mexico for long.

"This is just their first chance to get into the United States, of course," she told me. "I don't know what's on the minds of these people exactly, but the threats from Trump can't deter them from eventually getting into the U.S."

Other reporting has since confirmed the use of Mexican asylum as a temporary tactic, such as this April 2020 El Paso Times report quoting migrants equivocating as to whether they'll settle for the great Mexican Dream or head to the U.S. border even if they get Mexican asylum.

The tide of Central Americans applying for Mexican asylum continues to build as the American election draws nearer. And the applicants are not only Mexican but from all over the world. Thousands of Haitians, Africans, Cubans, and Middle Eastern migrants also are applying for Mexican asylum, adding to those likely to head for the U.S. the moment American defenses begin to falter.

In June 2019, Trump threatened Mexico President Andrs Manuel Lpez Obrador with ruinous economic trade tariffs on all U.S.-bound exports if he did not halt the migrant caravans crossing his country's southern border with Guatemala. Obrador complied by deploying some 6,000 Mexican National Guard troops on more than 50 roadblocks throughout Mexico's border states, essentially bringing northbound migrant traffic to a halt.

Caravans have regularly battered themselves apart against the bulwark of the rather implacable Mexican national guard troops, who rounded them up by the thousands and bused them back to Central American countries. But they keep forming, relentlessly probing and testing this one most effective defensive perimeter, looking for the moment of opportunity when it goes away.

If a President Biden chose not to maintain Trump's tariff threat, Mexico would likely redeploy its troops elsewhere. Overnight, Mexico could return to its traditional role as a migrant-transit superhighway to the U.S. border.

Still, predicting migration flows isn't the kind of bet on which to place real money, since trends can be notoriously unpredictable and susceptible to unforeseeablefactors. The Trump Effect eventually wore off once migrantcommunities noticed that campaign promises were taking quite a long time to actually be implemented and then, when some of them were, contributed to a rush on the border in 2018 that Trump had to counter in ways no one could have envisioned at the time (such as threatening Mexico trade tariffs). Likewise, a Biden administration, seeing an initial rush on the border in the wake of Democratic victory, might not follow through for quite some time with its policy promises and, ultimately, if the new president decides mass migration must be stopped, he may be forced to leave some of Trump's policies in place.

Read the original post:
Will We See a 'Biden Effect' at the Border? - Immigration Blog

A group of boys sits on a sunny patch of grass in a park in downtown Belgrade, but they are not here for a picnic.

They are "unaccompanied minors" the official name for the most vulnerable category of migrants who travel thousands of miles without adult supervision, and they have come to meet a smuggler to ferry them across the next border.

Although the so-called Balkan route was officially closed in the wake of Europe's migrant crisis five years ago, the region is seeing a fresh tide of travelers, even amid the coronavirus pandemic.

Europe's failure in coming up with a concrete stance toward caring for child refugees continues to end in the suffering of the minors, with many in the Balkans stuck in dire conditions.

The issue of unaccompanied children in Europe has especially become controversial as thousands of children seek asylum for a better and safer life. However, along the way, they may end up experiencing sexual exploitation, forced marriages and slavery or get caught in criminal networks of forced begging, drug trafficking and pickpocketing.

According to the European Commission, there are more than 50 million child migrants worldwide, 28 million who have been fleeing from violence. This number shows that one in every 200 children is a refugee.

Some 5.4 million of these children are in Europe, constituting about 7% of the overall migrant population in the continent. Back in 2015, the commission says, 31% of the refugees who arrived in the European Union by sea were children.

Some 30,000 refugees and migrants were registered in Serbia in the first half of 2020, almost three times the number for the same period last year, according to official data.

Among them, 1,200 are minors traveling alone, the youngest at just 7 years old.

In the Belgrade park, a green-eyed 14-year-old from Afghanistan describes leaving home in February after the Taliban took his father, two older brothers and two uncles to the mountains and killed them.

"My mother decided that I had to go," Ahmed, whose name was changed for this story, told Agence France-Presse (AFP).

Since then, he has traveled more than 4,000 kilometers (2,500 miles) across five borders, mostly on foot.

"When we crossed from Afghanistan to Iran, we took the mountain route. It was snowing, and 12 people from our group froze to death," the child recalled, with a trembling voice.

Migrant trail full of dangers

Youngsters like Ahmed face myriad dangers on the migrant trail, which involves linking up with smugglers, evading border police and finding places to sleep in foreign cities.

Almost a third of unaccompanied children passing through Serbia have experienced violence, either physical, psychological or sexual, according to data from Doctors Without Borders (MSF).

They describe "blackmail, torture or rape, mostly during the trail," former MSF psychologist Natasa Toskic told AFP.

The majority of the children Toskic worked with had developed issues like anxiety, depression, substance abuse and behavioral problems such as self-harm.

"The percentage of those who developed PTSD is larger than the ones that didn't," she said.

Official refugee camps can be dangerous too.

After Serbia went into lockdown to battle the coronavirus earlier this year, it sealed migrant centers shut.

In June, a video emerged showing security guards slapping and beating minors with batons in Bogovadja camp, a site that has only one social worker for 330 children.

In March, six adult migrants were arrested in a center in Bosnia-Herzegovina on suspicion of raping several teenagers in the camp.

Linking the Middle East to Europe, the Balkans became a thoroughfare for migrants in 2015 when hundreds of thousands flowed through the region in hopes of reaching Western Europe.

The route was shuttered under a 2016 agreement between the European Union and Turkey, which agreed to house the refugees in return for 6 billion euros ($7.1 billion) in aid.

The EU promised to pay 4 billion euros by 2020, while the full 6 billion-euro amount is expected to be paid by 2025.

But traffickers continue to carve paths through the peninsula, crossing seas, rivers and mountains and often packing up to 20 migrants in a single vehicle.

Back in July, the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe (PACE) released a report, saying that there is no cohesive approach to address the issue of missing migrant children in Europe.

The inquiry analyzed the number of missing migrant and refugee children in the bloc, how they are registered and who is responsible for informing police when they go missing.

Thirty-two out of 37 parliaments or countries replied, which showed that there is no cohesive policy to address the matter, and each country has different criteria and practices, which makes it difficult to summarize the matter statistically.

For instance, each country uses different descriptions to identify missing and refugee migrant children.

First, the countries differentiate between unaccompanied children and accompanied children in families. Furthermore, the definition of being missing differs, according to the Missing Refugee and Migrant Children in Europe report.

As a hub for smugglers, Belgrade remains a major intersection from which trails branch out toward neighboring Croatia, Bosnia-Herzegovina and Hungary.

Smuggler fees range up to $10,000, often putting families in huge debt, said Vladimir Sjekloca, of the nongovernmental organization (NGO) Crisis Response and Policy Centre.

"They can only pay a small amount of the needed money to the traffickers," effectively leaving the youngsters "in a form of slavery."

European police pushbacks minors

All of the children AFP spoke to also described violent police pushbacks and forced expulsions without the chance to apply for asylum at borders, which Balkan countries deny or treat as one-off "incidents."

Most of the pushbacks have been carried out by Hungarian and Croatian police, according to testimonies gathered by the Border Violence Monitoring Network, a regional NGO.

In 2020 alone, there have already been 40 reported assaults on groups that had minors among them, including a 5-month-old baby, the NGO reports.

The problem in the Balkan countries toward refugee children is not unique to there, as all of Europe has been suffering from similar issues, the PACE report shows.

For instance, the report noted that in 2019 alone, there were some 393 children missing in Austria, while 1,021 went missing in Belgium in 2018. While some countries gave the stats for a single year, and others gave figures ranging from 2015 to 2019.

While in some countries such as Austria, Croatia, Georgia, Germany, Iceland, Italy, Spain and the U.K. there is no legal obligation to notify authorities when migrant children go missing, in countries like Bulgaria, Estonia, North Macedonia, Finland and Turkey, there is such an obligation.

Even the authorities that migrant childrens carers should notify vary from country to country, as in some countries like Germany, Belgium, Croatia and Latvia police are described as the official body, while in countries like Portugal, the Netherlands and Slovakia, relevant authorities include the police and other governmental bodies responsible for taking care of migrants.

The European Commission has proposed 10 principles for integrated child protection systems, which provide a framework for the protection of children in migration back in 2017.

These principles claim to "prioritize actions aimed at strengthening child protection systems along the migratory routes." They include supporting "partner countries in developing strong national child protection systems," applying "child-friendly and gender-sensitive approaches when collecting fingerprints and biometric data," ensuring that "a person responsible for child protection is present at an early stage of the identification and registration phase" and putting "in place the necessary procedures and protocols to systematically report and respond to all instances of unaccompanied children going missing."

Still, these principles seem to be inefficient, as minors' suffering in the continent continues.

Karox Pishtewan, a Kurdish refugee who came to Serbia three years ago as a "scared to death" 16-year-old, has taken a different route from most.

After years in a Serbian orphanage, he decided to stay and was one of the few to secure refugee status here.

Today the 19-year-old sports a trimmed beard and has an apartment of his own in Belgrade, plus a job as a translator for a human rights NGO.

"Here I don't have too much, but I have a life," he said in Serbian, adding that he often tries to persuade other youngsters from continuing onward.

When Pishtewan first entered Serbia, the Balkan country was receiving praise for its more humanitarian reception of migrants compared with neighbors who erected border fences and pushed xenophobic rhetoric.

But migrants have increasingly become a target of far-right groups, who accuse the government of a "secret plan" to settle hundreds of thousands in Serbia, a claim denied by the government.

Most children think only of getting to their desired destination.

"I know this is not something a 14-year-old is supposed to experience," said Ahmed, who said he wanted to reach France.

"But I didn't have a choice. There is death on the route, but death is also at home; it makes no difference."

Originally posted here:
Child refugees struggle to survive in Balkans, Europe fails to come up with solid stance | Daily Sabah - Daily Sabah

In 2019, India had the largest diaspora in the world, which was sending back billions of dollars in remittances and contributing significantly to the economy. This year has changed everything.

The coronavirus pandemic has upended life, leading to job losses, travel restrictions and visa limbos. For travellers and students, the standstill has been infuriating. But for millions of international migrants, including from India, the extraordinary disruption has meant threatened or lost livelihoods.

The International Labour Organisation calls this a crisis within a crisis:

Tens of millions of migrant workers, forced to return home because of the Covid-19 pandemic after losing their jobs, face unemployment and poverty in their home countriesMigrant workers have found themselves stranded in host countries without access to social protection...Even those with jobs may be taking reduced wages and living in cramped worksite residences where social distancing is impossible.

It is hard to predict a return to normal, but academics say it may not happen until 2021 and possibly, not even after.

The migration of Indians has steadily increased over the decades. According to Kaleidoscopic Ethnicity by Professor Prema Kurien of Syracuse University, the pattern began in the 1970s, when an oil price rise sparked out-migration in large numbers from Asian countries to the Middle East. The Gulf underwent a huge infrastructure transformation, for which foreign labour was essential, and by 1980, Indians and Pakistanis constituted around 19% of the foreign workforce in the region.

Between 1990 and 2019, migration from India increased threefold, making it the largest country of origin for migrants. Last year, it had a 17.5 million-strong diaspora around the world. Of these, some estimates say, eight to nine million lived in six countries in one region alone: Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Bahrain, Oman and Kuwait in the Persian Gulf. Half of the migrants to the Persian Gulf were unskilled, 30% semi-skilled, and only the remaining 20% skilled.

Their conditions changed precipitously in February and March of this year, as the coronavirus pandemic barrelled through the world. Many were left jobless, and some homeless. Desperate and despairing, they beseeched the Indian government to find them a way home, but so far, several months later, only 878,000 Indians have been repatriated through the Vande Bharat mission.

This is just the teaser before the movie, said S Irudaya Rajan, chair professor of the Ministry of Overseas Indian Affairs research unit on international migration. His prediction is that at a minimum, two million Indians, and at a maximum, three million Indians will be back this year. Future migration will depend on how Covid-19 pans out, and what measures the government takes, he said.

Nonetheless, whats certain is that in the short term over the next six to eight months remittances will decline. The World Bank predicts the drop will be 23% this year, though Rajan believes this figure is too high. My prediction is something around 15%.

He believes Kerala, which sends the most migrants and receives a fifth of Indias remittances, will lose around Rs 15,000 crore. When we talk about 15 lakh migrants returning, were talking about 15 lakh families being affected in India, he said. A single, stranded migrant in Dubai could have been supporting a whole family.

Its unfortunate that no government has considered the plight of these migrants or their families. There hasnt been a single word about rehabilitation, said Rajan. Theyre not doing much for domestic migrants eitherThese people really require our support.

Heller Arokkiaraj, a postdoctoral fellow at the Leibniz Science Campus in Germany who co-authored an article with Rajan, noted that the Persian Gulf had been turning its back on migrant workers even before the pandemic. Whether you take Saudi Arabia, UAE or any other country in the Gulf, they have been trying to cut down the migrant population for a very long time because several large construction projects are now complete, he said. The Kuwait government restricted travel from 10 countries, including India, earlier this year, and is capping immigration from India to 15%.

In a recent webinar, A Didar Singh, former Secretary, Ministry of Overseas Indian Affairs, and former Secretary-General, FICCI, took the view that low-skilled migrant workers will be hit harder by job cuts. Yet, with global policies, its the other way round there is greater antipathy towards the lower-skilled group. This is a very odd thing you notice across the world so far as policy is concerned, he said.

As a country, we are really in the soup, said Tuhin Ghosh, a professor at Jadavpur University. When migrants return this year, the human capital will not be utilised properly because there are no jobs. And whenever human capital is underutilised, you can think about a definite fall in the GDP.

The second effect of the influx, Ghosh said, will be a loss in social capital when returning migrants compete with non-migrant locals for jobs. As a whole, the composite capital of the country will drop dramatically, he said.

What, then, can be a way out? Scholars believe that once the pandemic eases and global restrictions lift, Indians will again try to find a temporary home abroad, but maybe not in the same countries as before.

The conservatism of typical destinations, such as the US and Persian Gulf, will spur a realignment towards nations and regions with more welcoming policies, such as Africa, Ireland, Singapore and Malaysia. Students, too, may show preference for Scandinavian countries, such as Finland and Sweden, over the US and Australia because of the bitter experiences they had during Covid-19.

One trend from recent years, though, will continue, according to Arokkiaraj. Data published by the MEA have observed that the trend of international migration has now shifted to Uttar Pradesh and Bihar from the southern states, Arokkiaraj and Rajan write in their paper. That trend will continue because of Uttar Pradesh and Bihars demographic profile, boasting the countrys largest young population.

These states also have cheaper labour, Arokkiaraj said. If the Gulf recruits labour from Tamil Nadu or Kerala for 1,000 dinar, they can recruit two people from Uttar Pradesh or Bihar for 500 each, he elaborated.

Until re-migration begins, projects such as Skill India should teach returning migrants additional skills, such as global languages, so that they can find jobs abroad after the pandemic. For that, India needs a systematic migration policy. Currently, India says we are facilitating migration, said Rajan. But in order to promote orderly and safe migration in the post-Covid era, we should be talking about promoting open, safe migration, because we cant offer employment for our growing demographic dividend.

Without an open migration policy, the tough living conditions for outbound Indians will continue, both during and after Covid-19. They will be stranded, stuck, cheated, not given salaries, said Rajan. All this can be taken care of if the government promotes safe, legal migration, and works closely with recruitment agencies.

Overall, the pandemic will result in more localisation and less globalisation, said Dr. Singh. This will have an impact on businesses and the very functioning of individual countries, but its something we have to build into our future policy-making.

He added: All receiving countrieswant to manage migration. To manage migration and make correct policies, the single most important thing you need to have is that of the voice of the migrants themselves.

Nowhere in our policy-making do we incorporate the voices of migrants, he argued. How do we encourage more research, papers, policies and articles to say that the voice of migrants must be heard? Thats the defining question of the post-coronavirus era.

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In India, coronavirus has created a crisis within a crisis by bringing migration abroad to a halt - Scroll.in