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I dont see the pandemic but the hunger and starvation that comes with it as the reason for large scale unrest, says Manaswini Bhalla, an associate professorof Economics at IIM Bangalore.

The context was the sorry plight of migrant and daily wage labourers stuck in the bigger cities due to the coronavirus lockdown.

Now the migrants can go home, says the government

With most migrant workers confined to shelters and dependent on charity for survival, the Union governments belated realisation that they should be allowed to get home is no doubt welcome. But there is much that is inexplicable about the Centres guidelines on how this is to happen.

Migrant workers take a break as they walk during a nationwide lockdown from Hyderabad to their village in Maharashtra. AP

It is good in principle, but I am not sure enough thought has been given to the modalities of this migration, says Divya Ravindranath, researcher at the Indian Institute of Human Settlements (IIHS).

The timing is the most inexplicable of all. Though lockdown has been extended, industry all over the country is being told to restart. Other measures and lockdown relaxations to slowly restart other segments of the economy are also in the works in all states. After weeks of idleness and no income, the migrant workers, hailing mainly from the eastern states and spread largely across the south and west of the country, could possibly at last see some hope of being able to start earning again, as a restarting economy is going to need this labour in the coming weeks.

Yet, after ignoring their sorry plight for nearly two months, the Centre is now suddenly telling the workers they can go home if they want to, with no guideline on how or from where industry will get the replacement labour they need to restart if migrant labour leaves.

This has led, for instance, to Karnatakachief minister BS Yeddyurappa appealing to migrant workers to stay back, but refraining from any mention of how the state will help them with food and/or money in the meantime.

The guidelines are also silent on how labourers stuck in high containment zones like Mumbai, Chennai, Ahmedabad, Surat and Delhi will be allowed to leave.

In the past week or so, the railways have run a few shramik (labourer) trains from places like Kerala, Telangana, Mumbai and Nashik to destinations in Jharkhand, Madhya Pradesh, Odisha, Uttar Pradesh and Bihar. But permission to get on those trains are ridden with so many ifs and buts, it would make anyones head spin.

A hazy future

What after these people reach home? That, again, is a question that has not been given any thought at all. My biggest concern is about what happens when they get back, said Divya.

What awaits these workers back home is not a better life and jobs, but being sent to quarantine centres of dubious quality before they can head to their villages.

The city is a place of economic stability, the village is the place for social security, is the reason given by Prof Chinmay Tumble of IIM Ahmedabad and author of India Moving: History of Migration, for the desperation among migrant workers to get back home.

Given that these journeys cost money that many of these workers can ill afford, the unintended effect of this decision to get migrants back home could be a feeling among them of insult being piled on injury. To what extent, and to what effect, the feeling will manifest itself is the question.

How life pans out for them in the next few weeks will provide the answer. And the first flashpoint could well be the kind of welcome workers sent on forced leave get when they return to their old places of work and on whether they get any part of their lost wages.

Every trade and industry association has said that they cannot pay workers the April salaries, or even restart their establishments, without substantial government bailouts. Which means going back to their shanties and temporary shelters and, hopefully, some dry ration packets.

Mitigating hunger

In Bengaluru, provision of cooked food is being stopped from 5 May, but no state authority is talking about how the workers are expected to survive without such help. That, despite all this, there have been only sporadic instances of unrest among migrant workers in Surat, Telangana, Chennai, Pune and Bangalore, but that is no indication that it will not spread or get more intense.

While angry reactions may have surfaced in some places, I would refrain from labelling them in any way, says Divya.

Migrant workers wait to board a special train to Agra in Uttar Pradesh at a railway station in Ahmedabad in Gujarat. AP

But as Professor Mahalaya Chatterjee, Centre for Urban Economic Studies, Calcutta University, points out, Social violence can arise from poorer sections of non-migrants too.

As lockdown eases, Professor Chatterjees view is that the problem needs to be looked at from three time spans: just after the lockdown is lifted, the next three months and the long run.

The PDS system needs to be strengthened immediately to ensure essential items reach the entire poorer sections with local bodies helping in identifying and reaching the needy, says Professor Chatterjee.

Soon after lockdown is lifted, there could be reverse flow of people in both directions those stuck in the cities will take the first chance to go back while people who can return, will rush to reclaim their old jobs, he says.

Professor Chatterjees prognosis for the long run is not optimistic.

There are chances that most small traders/manufacturers will be unable to open their business as before. So, loss of livelihood and mass unemployment may result in social unrest, she says.

Noted economist and former Reserve Bank Governor Raghuram Rajan too expressed a similar sentiment in his conversation with former Congress President Rahul Gandhi, saying India should use its DBT network to protect livelihoods and keep people from going into the streets protesting.

Outside the ambit of state welfare

While many people Citizen Matters spoke with preferred to wait and watch how the situation develops post 4 May, all pointed to the shortcomings in the present system for providing relief to the poor and the potential fallout from those left out of these relief packages for whatever reason.

The numbers of such workers run into thousands, if not lakhs, in every major city. There is no official system anywhere to count them or record their presence.The Aadhar card has become an enigma as are other identification instruments like ration cards, etc, says Professor Chatterjee.

If food riots happen, it will not be because of scarcity but due to maldistribution and lack of money in the hands of the needy, he warns.

Getting money into the hands of the poor

There is no shortage of suggestions from citizens and business federations on how to put money in the hands of the needy, though. The governments own recent garib kalyan package deposits a paltry amount monthly in Jan Dhan accounts. But the scheme ignores the fact that many migrant and daily wage labourers do not have such accounts which qualify for the transfer.

Rules have been framed to register such workers so as to enable them to access government schemes. But the rules dont work as a rule, as Divya points out: To give one example, every migrant construction worker is required to renew his registration with the construction welfare board annually (which entails a fee plus a daunting process). Why would a migrant worker want to renew that when he gets nothing by registering in the first place?

The biggest issue, in the end, is the trust deficit between the poor and the marginalised and the government, which this pandemic could reinforce in unexpected ways.

Hunger and poverty have been present in India for long without necessarily resulting in violent protests, said Chandan Gowda, faculty member at Azim Premji University, Bengaluru. But the signs of unrest among the millions of migrant workers under lockdown has made visible the massive problems of rural India, which largely induced many to move into cities as migrant workers in the first place.

A more serious crisis in the making?

Those problems are not going to go away any time soon. And little anecdotal evidence of the experience of those who have managed to get back to their villages has as yet filtered back to the cities.

If and how the economy reboots in the cities, and the kind of employment it will generate, is anybodys guess. But what is clear is that the workers left behind in the cities are not looking for charity. Sure, they accept it to survive, but what they really crave is the dignity of earning a living, which the coronavirus has snatched from them without warning.

The best hope for the migrant and daily wage workers to get back their livelihood in some measure remains in the metros, as it has been for many years. The problems that large-scale reverse migration will create in the rural areas is yet to be considered. Conditions everywhere have changed beyond recognition, and competition for jobs and resources will be fierce, in the cities in particular.

Migrant workers wait for transportation to take them back to their home states in Ahmedabad. AP

There have been instances of returning residents being refused entry into their own villages, with signs saying outsiders are not welcome. This indicates another, as yet unrealised, potentially volatile factor thrown into the mix of search for jobs and livelihoods, especially in urban areas: locals versus outsiders.

When too many people compete for the same limited economic resource, the first instinct is to find a scapegoat for ones problems. The vulnerable migrant worker presents an easy target.

Unfortunately, the cities where they worked and settled have always been indifferent to their wellbeing. They were just cheap labour. Now, if poverty and hunger make them want to go back, the general attitude is that it is their problem. The shramik special trains can take a few thousand of them back. For the rest, whose numbers will still be considerable, their main problem, as lockdown continues, will be hunger, not the virus, and a further deepening of existing social and income inequalities.

This has always been a recipe for unrest. Given the statistics on rising income inequality in the country, social unrest is a real possibility, says Manaswini Bhalla.

One solution Professor Manaswini suggests is creation of a national-level migrant register and record of migrants across the country. Skill mapping of migrant workers is another idea that is floating around, but with no details on the hows, whos and wheres of such an exercise.

While some talk of migrant labour being able to bargain for a better wage for themselves in the face of the predicted labour shortage. If this happens, it could well spark another kind of schism, between those who returned and those who stayed back.

According to Professor Bhalla, the lack of a binding force, a leader or an institution to channel these feelings makes me sceptical of any sort of uprising at this point in time".

Which is not the same as saying that it will not happen as hunger can push anyone into action they would not contemplate otherwise.

In this lockdown that has extended for overeight weeks, the salary a casual labourer has lost is Rs 7,680, says Professor Manaswini.

It is appalling that just Rs 500 a month has been promised to them.

This article was first published inCitizen Matters, a civic media website and is republished here with permission. (c)Oorvani Foundation/Open Media Initiative.

Updated Date: May 05, 2020 20:45:15 IST

Tags : BIhar, Coronavirus Lockdown, CriticalPoint, DBT, Direct Benefit Transfer, Economy, Food Riots, Hunger, Income Inequality, Indian Industries, Jharkhand, Kerala, Labourers, Lockdown, Madhya Pradesh, Migrant Labourers In India, Migrant Workers, Migrant Workers Crisis, Migrants Crisis, Odisha, PDS, Poverty, Public Distribution System, Ration Cards, Rural India, Rural Poor, Rural-Urban Divide, Shramik Trains, Social Unrest, Telangana, Urban India, Uttar Pradesh

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As migrant workers prepare to leave megacities, fixing gaps in PDS and DBT will be key to preventing... - Firstpost

The conversation as India continues to battle the Coronavirus pandemic has been revolving around the sorry state of migrant workers who are stranded in different states, waiting to go back home. With no mode of transportation as a lockdown was imposed to battle the pandemic, stranded migrant workers had taken to the streets several times in several states demanding that the government facilitate their travel back home. Keeping in view the grim situation, the central government started Shramik trains. These are special trains that are meant to ferry migrant workers back to their home states during the Coronavirus lockdown.

The controversy started with the Congress party President, Sonia Gandhi, claiming that the central government is charging passengers for their return back home. Several media houses too peddled this blatant lie. In reality, 85% of the cost is borne by the Central Government (Railways) and 15% was to be borne by the state government. The state govt could choose to cough up the money from their own coffers, take help of some NGO or collect the money through other means. The central government and the railways were not charging the passengers directly at all and the mode of collection of that 15% was left to the state. Considering the Congress was extremely outraged at the through (though a lie of their own making) of money being charged to stranded migrant workers, one would have expected that the Congress-ruled states would ensure that the 15% was drawn from the state coffers and not the migrant workers.

However, that is not what happened.

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According to some reports, while most state governments have paid for the travel of migrant workers from the state exchequer, Kerala, Rajasthan and Maharashtra remain the only three states to have charged the migrant workers for their travel back to their native place.

As perPTI, Maharashtra state minister Nitin Raut has written a letter to Chief Minister Uddhav Thackeray urging him to bear the travel cost of migrants leaving the state.He also wrote to Railway Minister Piyush Goyal on Sunday, requesting that the railways bear the cost of transportation of migrants from the state. In addition to this, a report by Times Now claims that besides Maharashtra, Kerala and Rajasthan have also asked the migrants to pay for the railway tickets.

If one recalls, protests had erupted in Maharashtra and Rajasthan earlier were migrant workers had demanded to go home. There are several protests that have been reported from several other states where migrants from Maharashtra, Rajasthan and other states are also demanded to be sent back home.

New Indian Express reported today (emphasis added):

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Just days after migrant labourers protested at IIT-Hyderabad wanting to back home, several migrant labourers staged a protest on Saturday in Tellapur at the construction site of a well-known real estate developer.Their demand was similar. They wanted to be sent back home by train or bus. Police officials swung into action to pacify an estimated 3,000 labourers at the site. These included migrants from West Bengal, Bihar, Jharkhand, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Odisha.

Over the last three days, the Gujarat government has facilitated the return of over 4,600 migrant workers to their native states of Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh over the past three days.

However, the numbers are not nearly sufficient. According to a report in the Times of India, 2.84 Lakh migrant workers have registered from various states to go back home to Rajasthan. Bengal too has thousands of labourers stuck in various parts of the country, waiting to go back home, seeing a glimmer of hope as Sharmik trains start ferrying workers back.

But, with thousands and lakhs of workers waiting to return to their home states and the central government running shramik trains, there seems to be a discrepancy in the numbers emerging from central railways.

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Till today morning at 9 AM, 69 trains have been operated by the central government and railways. However, when one sees, the number of trains that have left from states like Rajasthan and Maharashtra are far more than the number of incoming trains to these states (that carried their own migrant labours from other states). In fact, for West Bengal, only two trains have been operated that have carried their own migrant labours back to the state from other states like Rajasthan.

The obvious conclusion drawn from this is that states like Maharashtra and Rajasthan specifically and sending our more migrant labourers to their own home states than accepting their own migrant labours back from other states.

According to sources in the Railways Ministry, West Bengal, Rajasthan and Maharashtra are not giving permission for the trains carrying their own migrants back from various states.

Let us analyse what is happening is different states.

On the 26th of April, Rajasthan Chief Minister Ashok Gehlot said that migrant workers from other states who were stuck in Rajasthan would be allowed to go back to their home states. However, talking about the migrant labours from Rajasthan stuck in other states, he said that they would be allowed to come back in a phased manner. The same Hindustan Times report also mentioned that Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh and Haryana have already initiated the process to bring back migrant labourers stranded in other statesafter the lockdown to curb the spread of coronavirus pandemic was imposed in March till April 14 and then extended till May 3.

So, while Uttar Pradesh, Haryana and Bihar are ready to accept their migrants back, Rajasthan is emphasising that they will accept their own labourers back in a phased manner. Interestingly, only 3 Shramik trains have are on-run so far that are getting Rajasthani migrants back to the state. On the other hand, 10 trains carrying migrant labours back to other home states have already been terminated and 4 are in the pipeline.

Essentially, while 2.84 lakh migrant workers are waiting to go back to their home state, Rajasthan, from various other states, the Rajasthan government is solely focussing on sending labourers of other states back from Rajasthan but not on accepting their own labourers from other states. While the Rajasthan government is grandstanding and stating that it will bear the cost of migrant workers leaving the state, it has not said anything about accepting its own labourers back, who are stranded in different states.

This could potentially cause a crisis in other states which are accepting their own migrants and also tending to migrants from states like Rajasthan which are not focused on getting their own people back to the state.

For the state of Maharashtra, the numbers are not very different. Only one train has got its own labourers back from various states while 8 trains have ferried labourers back from Maharashtra to their home states.

For example, labourers from Maharashtra were protesting in MP demanding that be sent back home as recently as April 30th. In Hyderabad too, migrant labours including those from Maharashtra staged a protest demanding to go back home.

The conduct of the Maharashtra government has been the worst, so far. While news emerged that they are charging migrant labourers for a health check-up before allowing them to return to their home states, as a measure of hollow grandstanding, Uddhav Thackeray had urged the central government not to charge migrants, hiding the fact that it is the state that is supposed to cough up the 15% and thus, that migrant labourers are being charged is solely the doing of the Maharashtra government.

While Maharashtra itself seems slow in accepting their own migrants back, Maharashtra minister and NCP leader Nawab Malik went ahead and alleged that the Uttar Pradesh government was purposefully putting stringent conditions for the repatriation of migrants staying in Maharashtra in a bid to avoid accepting them even though a total of 16 trains (either terminated, running or in the pipeline) are scheduled to bring migrants back to UP.

The West Bengal government has itself said that they are going slow in accepting their own migrant labours back.

It was reported that the state feels the return of so many people without Covid-19 tests needs to be planned with utmost care so that the infection does not spread to new areas through those coming back. West Bengal chief secretary Rajiva Sinha said no one coming from other states would be allowed to enter containment zones. So, if someone taking a train for Bengal hails from a containment zone, he or she cannot be sent home. Some other arrangement needs to be made and these require time, Sinha said.

It wont be proper to allow lakhs of stranded migrants labourers all in one go. They need to be brought back in phases because detailed planning has to be made. Else every effort made till date will go down the drain, Sinha added.

With this stand, it is no surprise that only two trains have carried Bengal labours back to the state from other states.

Though the trains that ferried migrant labours back to Madhya Pradesh is only one, Shivraj Singh Chouhan has expressly stated that all migrant workers who belong to MP will be brought back. In fact, due to the distance not being much, the State Government arranged several busses for the migrants to come back to MP from various other states, especially from Maharashtra, Rajasthan and Gujarat.

On Saturday, Mr. Chouhan had announced the State government was making arrangements to bring back its native labourers stuck in different States in buses.

We will not let them walk, he said. We have seen them walk back home on roads and rail tracks in the heat. They must be a worried lot. So, we will make all arrangements for their travel, send them back to their villages in buses.

Before boarding buses, the labourers would be screened for illnesses. I request all villagers to behave in a humane way with them. The returnees will be home quarantined, he said.

I have received several phone calls from individuals in different States wanting to come back. We have arranged for e-passes for them so that they could return using their own transport, he said.

Thus, the MP government does not seem to be shrugging its responsibility as far as accepting its own people back is concerned.

While the Congress rule states and opposition ruled states like Rajasthan, Maharashtra and West Bengal seem to uncaring about their own workers stranded in various states, they seem eager to send labourers back from their own state to other states like MP, UP, Bihar and Jharkhand. Potentially, this could cause another crisis for the destination states since several would not only be tending to their workers who are coming back but also workers from these states who are not being accepted by their states.

While this politics played out, these states have been trying to deflect attention by wrongly blaming the central government for charging migrant labourers for the Shramik trains while it was explicit that the 15% has to be coughed up by the state while 85% cost is being borne by the Railways.

Excerpt from:
Are states like Bengal, Rajasthan and Maharashtra refusing to accept their own migrant workers? Here is what we found - OpIndia

Prime Minister Antonio Costa emphasised there is a long way to go in the fight against COVID-19 in Portugal. Photo credit: PES Communications

In a world that is currently overwhelmed by fear and despair that has rapidly been brought on by the Covid-19 pandemic, a recent piece of legislation introduced by Portugal has revealed a small glimmer of hope.

The country has recently announced that it will grant temporary residency rights to all immigrants and asylum seekers who applied for residency in the country before the countrys state of emergency for Covid-19 was announced on 18March 2020. To gain access, asylum seekers must provide evidence of an ongoing request to apply for residency status.

Anyone with these rights will be given access to the countrys national health service, bank accounts, and work and rental contracts until 1July 2020 at least.

It is not known exactly how many people will be affected by this policy, but recent government statistics suggest that in 2019, a record number of 580,000 immigrants resided in Portugal, and 135,000 were granted residency in that year alone.

Portugal has been praised for its response to the pandemic, and the country has witnessed a fraction of cases and fatalities of its neighbouring country Spain.

The reason for this difference is not known for sure, but some doctors have suggested it is down to the countrys early movement restrictions, which were put in place after the country had witnessed only two deaths. Portugal also became the first EU country to open a drive-through Covid-19 testing centre.

It was recently announced that Portugal would extend its lockdown until May 1.

There is still no light at the end of the tunnel, Prime Minister Antonio Costa said in an interview on TVI television on Friday. We have to walk through this tunnel and the more disciplined we are now the faster we will get to the end of it.

Many roadblocks prevent asylum seekers and other vulnerable groups from accessing the help they need, which puts them at particular risk of Covid-19.

Multiple factors, including financial costs, fear of deportation, language barriers, and fear of abuse or discrimination all act as barriers when it comes to getting help. Nations need to remove as many of these barriers as possible to make it possible for everyone to get the help they need.

Improving access to care will drastically curb the spread of the virus, ultimately leading to better overall public health outcomes.

Unfortunately, many countries are using the crisis as leverage to further marginalise those who most desperately need support.

The Trump administration has used the threat of the virus to suspend Migrant Protection Protocols (MPP) legal proceedings until May at least. The U.S. has also closed its border to all new asylum seekers, even though novel coronavirus infection rates are far higher in the United States than in Mexico. There have even been reports that the United States may consider returning asylum seekers to their country of origin.

Meanwhile, Canadian President Justin Trudeau has declared that anyone who attempts to cross the Canada-US border to claim asylum would be turned back - despite making exceptions for temporary foreign workers, international students, and permanent resident applicants.

In the United Kingdom, it was recently announced that Home Secretary Priti Patel has refused to accept unaccompanied children from overcrowded refugee camps in Greece. Last year, Greece removed migrants from the social security system. They remain unprotected today.

Throughout history, crises have been catalysts for change. So far, the corona crisis has revealed the lack of national preparedness across most of the world, and perhaps even more importantly, the lack of solidarity between nations.

However, this could prove to be a global turning point. The crisis has led many countries around the world to take drastic measures that were previously considered unthinkable. In particular, Portugals pragmatic policy has revealed how it is possible to minimise the spread of the virus while respecting the dignity of those most in need of help.

It is a small start, but an example of how important it is that countries extend their critical services to all residents - regardless of where they were born. Now, more than ever, the health of each nation depends on everyone who is living in it - not just those with a government-issued ID card.

One of the big questions now is: are we waiting to return normal? Or are we ready to fight for these changes and build something different once this is over?

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Portugal is treating migrants as citizens amid the Covid-19 crisis. Other countries must follow Le Taurillon - thenewfederalist.eu

Following the migrant crisis which engulfed Southern Europe and the Mediterranean region in 2014-15, tensions between states affected and migrants have remained high. In recent years Libya has become the focus of said tensions, and the ongoing conflict in Libya and the spread of COVID-19 may together create the conditions necessary to instigate a second migrant crisis, Dryad Global has warned.

Currently the International Organisation of Migration reports that in excess of 200 000 people have been displaced in Libya since the most recent conflict between the UN-acknowledged Government of National Accord, and the Libyan National Army (which has a powerbase in Benghazi) emerged a year ago. 150 000 of these displaced people are situated within Tripoli and its environs, along the Western coastline of Libya where most attempted migrant vessels crossings of the Mediterranean launch from, Dryad said.

Migrant based incidents continue to occur in Libyan waters. On 10 April the Libyan coastguard rescued 280 migrants in distress. However unlike in recent years, Libya has now banned migrants from disembarking back on Libyan soil, a decision taken due to worries that a higher number of migrants on Libyan shores would exacerbate the spread of COVID-19. Italy has also begun to close its ports to migrants in response to the threat of COVID-19, and also due to the strain its healthcare system is now under. On 12 April Italy ordered a German rescue vessel with 156 migrants on board to transfer the migrants to another vessel where they could be quarantined. As worries about the situation escalating spread, Malta has asked the EU for a 100 million EU aid package to avert what it has referred to as a humanitarian disaster caused by increased migrants leaving Libya, Dryad said.

The situation in the Mediterranean has been exacerbated by the winding down in recent months of the EU Operation Sophia, which coordinated migrant rescue activities. The EUs new initiative, Operation Irini, is focused upon enforcing a UN arms embargo, and will not interact with migrant vessels, Dryad Global said.

It is likely that the intensifying conflict in Tripoli, and the increased spread of COVID-19 within Libya will continue to exacerbate the push factors which will encourage migrants to attempt a Mediterranean crossing. Currently 35 positive cases of COVID-19 have been reported in Libya, however this number is set to rise exponentially, especially when the virus becomes established within migrant detention camps, which have terrible sanitation conditions.

Increased numbers of migrants leaving Libyan shores, coupled with the refusal of Libya to allow rescued migrants to return to Libya, and Italy not allowing migrants to disembark, could cause a potential humanitarian disaster in the Mediterranean, where migrants fleeing a pandemic and conflict have nowhere to go. This will undoubtedly place an increased pressure on vessels operating in the region to come to the rescue of migrants, despite the potential lack of a port which will then accept said migrants. Whilst this crisis has so far not reached its peak, it is advised vessels become increasingly aware of what may occur in the Mediterranean within the next 12 months, and begin to adopt contingency measures to assist their ability to interact with migrants and/or migrant vessels if deemed necessary, Dryad concluded.

Original post:
Another migrant crisis could be brewing in Libya - defenceWeb

NAIROBI, Kenya In the largest slum in Kenyas capital, people desperate to eat set off a stampede during a recent giveaway of flour and cooking oil, leaving scores injured and two people dead.

In India, thousands of workers are lining up twice a day for bread and fried vegetables to keep hunger at bay.

And across Colombia, poor households are hanging red clothing and flags from their windows and balconies as a sign that they are hungry.

We dont have any money, and now we need to survive, said Pauline Karushi, who lost her job at a jewelry business in Nairobi, and lives in two rooms with her child and four other relatives. That means not eating much.

The coronavirus pandemic has brought hunger to millions of people around the world. National lockdowns and social distancing measures are drying up work and incomes, and are likely to disrupt agricultural production and supply routes leaving millions to worry how they will get enough to eat.

The coronavirus has sometimes been called an equalizer because it has sickened both rich and poor, but when it comes to food, the commonality ends. It is poor people, including large segments of poorer nations, who are now going hungry and facing the prospect of starving.

The coronavirus has been anything but a great equalizer, said Asha Jaffar, a volunteer who brought food to families in the Nairobi slum of Kibera after the fatal stampede. Its been the great revealer, pulling the curtain back on the class divide and exposing how deeply unequal this country is.

Already, 135 million people had been facing acute food shortages, but now with the pandemic, 130 million more could go hungry in 2020, said Arif Husain, chief economist at the World Food Program, a United Nations agency. Altogether, an estimated 265 million people could be pushed to the brink of starvation by years end.

Weve never seen anything like this before, Mr. Husain said. It wasnt a pretty picture to begin with, but this makes it truly unprecedented and uncharted territory.

The world has experienced severe hunger crises before, but those were regional and caused by one factor or another extreme weather, economic downturns, wars or political instability.

This hunger crisis, experts say, is global and caused by a multitude of factors linked to the coronavirus pandemic and the ensuing interruption of the economic order: the sudden loss in income for countless millions who were already living hand-to-mouth; the collapse in oil prices; widespread shortages of hard currency from tourism drying up; overseas workers not having earnings to send home; and ongoing problems like climate change, violence, population dislocations and humanitarian disasters.

Already, from Honduras to South Africa to India, protests and looting have broken out amid frustrations from lockdowns and worries about hunger. With classes shut down, over 368 million children have lost the nutritious meals and snacks they normally receive in school.

There is no shortage of food globally, or mass starvation from the pandemic yet. But logistical problems in planting, harvesting and transporting food will leave poor countries exposed in the coming months, especially those reliant on imports, said Johan Swinnen, director general of the International Food Policy Research Institute in Washington.

While the system of food distribution and retailing in rich nations is organized and automated, he said, systems in developing countries are labor intensive, making these supply chains much more vulnerable to Covid-19 and social distancing regulations.

Yet even if there is no major surge in food prices, the food security situation for poor people is likely to deteriorate significantly worldwide. This is especially true for economies like Sudan and Zimbabwe that were struggling before the outbreak, or those like Iran that have increasingly used oil revenues to finance critical goods like food and medicine.

In the sprawling Petare slum on the outskirts of the capital, Caracas, a nationwide lockdown has left Freddy Bastardo and five others in his household without jobs. Their government-supplied rations, which had arrived only once every two months before the crisis, have long run out.

We are already thinking of selling things that we dont use in the house to be able to eat, said Mr. Bastardo, 25, a security guard. I have neighbors who dont have food, and Im worried that if protests start, we wouldnt be able to get out of here.

As wages have dried up, half a million people are estimated to have left cities to walk home, setting off the nations largest mass migration since independence, said Amitabh Behar, the chief executive of Oxfam India.

On a recent evening, hundreds of migrant workers, who have been stuck in New Delhi after a lockdown was imposed in March with little warning, sat under the shade of a bridge waiting for food to arrive. The Delhi government has set up soup kitchens, yet workers like Nihal Singh go hungry as the throngs at these centers have increased in recent days.

Instead of coronavirus, the hunger will kill us, said Mr. Singh, who was hoping to eat his first meal in a day. Migrants waiting in food lines have fought each other over a plate of rice and lentils. Mr. Singh said he was ashamed to beg for food but had no other option.

The lockdown has trampled on our dignity, he said.

Refugees and people living in conflict zones are likely to be hit the hardest.

The curfews and restrictions on movement are already devastating the meager incomes of displaced people in Uganda and Ethiopia, the delivery of seeds and farming tools in South Sudan and the distribution of food aid in the Central African Republic. Containment measures in Niger, which hosts almost 60,000 refugees fleeing conflict in Mali, have led to surges in the pricing of food, according to the International Rescue Committee.

The effects of the restrictions may cause more suffering than the disease itself, said Kurt Tjossem, regional vice president for East Africa at the International Rescue Committee.

Ahmad Bayoush, a construction worker who had been displaced to Idlib Province in northern Syria, said he and many others had signed up to receive food from aid groups, but that it had yet to arrive.

I am expecting real hunger if it continues like this in the north, he said.

The pandemic is also slowing efforts to deal with the historic locust plague that has been ravaging the East and Horn of Africa. The outbreak is the worst the region has seen in decades and comes on the heels of a year marked by extreme droughts and floods. But the arrival of billions of new swarms could further deepen food insecurity, said Cyril Ferrand, head of the Food and Agriculture Organizations resilience team in eastern Africa.

Travel bans and airport closures, Mr. Ferrand said, are interrupting the supply of pesticides that could help limit the locust population and save pastureland and crops.

As many go hungry, there is concern in a number of countries that food shortages will lead to social discord. In Colombia, residents of the coastal state of La Guajira have begun blocking roads to call attention to their need for food. In South Africa, rioters have broken into neighborhood food kiosks and faced off with the police.

And even charitable food giveaways can expose people to the virus when throngs appear, as happened in Nairobis shantytown of Kibera earlier this month.

People called each other and came rushing, said Valentine Akinyi, who works at the district government office where the food was distributed. People have lost jobs. It showed you how hungry they are.

Yet communities across the world are also taking matters into their own hands. Some are raising money through crowdfunding platforms, while others have begun programs to buy meals for needy families.

On a recent afternoon, Ms. Jaffar and a group of volunteers made their way through Kibera, bringing items like sugar, flour, rice and sanitary pads to dozens of families. A native of the area herself, Ms. Jaffar said she started the food drive after hearing so many stories from families who said they and their children were going to sleep hungry.

The food drive has so far reached 500 families. But with all the calls for assistance shes getting, she said, thats a drop in the ocean.

Reporting was contributed by Anatoly Kurmanaev and Isayen Herrera from Caracas, Venezuela; Paulina Villegas from Mexico City; Julie Turkewitz from Bogot, Colombia; Ben Hubbard and Hwaida Saad from Beirut, Lebanon; Sameer Yasir from New Delhi; and Hannah Beech from Bangkok.

The rest is here:
Instead of Coronavirus, the Hunger Will Kill Us. A Global Food Crisis Looms. - The New York Times