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Asia Pacific, which accounts for a third of the global migrant workforce, is likely to face remittance losses of USD 31.4-54.3 billion due to the coronavirus pandemic, the Asian Development Bank (ADB) said in a report.

The governments need to come up with policy measures to reduce the economic and social fallout arising out of it, the ADB said.

Job losses stemming from COVID-19 are hurting households around the world, but for Asia and the Pacifics 91 million migrant workers a third of the global migrant workforce the impacts will be particularly severe, the ADB said in August 2020 brief on COVID-19 Impact on International Migration, Remittances, and Recipient Households in Developing Asia.

ADB economists estimate that the region faces remittance losses ranging from USD 31.4 billion to USD 54.3 billion. To reduce the economic and social impacts, policy responses are proposed in areas such as social protection, immigration, labour, and health, it said.

In 2019, six of the 10 largest remittance recipients globally were from this region-India, China, the Philippines, Pakistan, Bangladesh, and Vietnam, the Manila-headquartered multi-lateral funding agency said.

The countries likely to face more severe effects from the pandemic-induced decline in remittance inflows are the ones where remittance shares to gross domestic product (GDP) and per capita remittances are high.

These include Tonga, Samoa, and other Pacific countries, with remittances relative to the size of their economies and populations very high.

Central Asian countries such as Georgia, the Kyrgyz Republic, and Tajikistan, sending a large number of seasonal and long-term migrants mainly to the Russian Federation and Europe, will also be hard-hit, along with some of the major migrant origin countries such as Nepal and the Philippines, it added.

Remittances to Asia and the Pacific, amounting to USD 315 billion in 2019, are an important and stable source of income for families back home and help strengthen external financing alongside foreign direct investment and tourism recipients in many developing economies, said the report penned by four ADB economists.

They boost general consumption as well as investment and help sustain government debts by contributing to the foreign currency revenue base, said the economists.

Jobs and worker welfare are severely affected by the pandemic globally but some sectors are hurt more than others such as retail and wholesale trade, hospitality and recreation, manufacturing, and accommodation and food service sectors.

These are the sectors largely in non-essential services with frequent face-to-face interactions and the migrant and informal workers are among those facing the most severe impacts, as they often do not have regular contracts nor strong bargaining power, said the report.

Migrant workers are more vulnerable from layoffs once prolonged lockdowns and production breaks drive companies out of business. Also, uncertainty looms about the timing of full recovery, even as lockdowns are lifted, with concerns about persistent weak demand in some economic sectors.

The wide-scale economic cost of the COVID-19 pandemic is expected to reach between USD 5.8 trillion and USD 8.8 trillion globally, equivalent to 6.4 per cent to 9.7 per cent of global GDP, reflecting the spread of the pandemic to Europe, the United States, and other major economies, said the report.

The ADB said that employment in host economies of Asian migrants is contracting significantly.

The remittance flows to developing Asia is to plunge amid the pandemic as during the first months 2020, remittances began to contract in major migrant source countriesWhile some migrant workers may feel altruistic and send more money to their families in extremely difficult situations, prevailing weak economic forecasts are pointing toward declining remittances.

However, relative increase in remittance inflows is observed in June in selected countries which can be attributed to lifting of lockdowns in destinations that allowed migrants to remit over the counter and introduction of policy measures that incentivise transfer by reducing restrictions and transaction fees, the ADB said.

Citing a study of 10 migrant sending countries in Asia, the ADB said remittance dependent households are at risk of falling into poverty, as it is estimated that a 1 percentage increase in the share to GDP to remittances inflow from overseas is associated with a reduction in poverty gap by 22.6 per cent and poverty severity by 16 per cent.

A study based on microdata from selected economies in South Asia and Southeast Asia suggests that a 10 per cent increase in remittance inflows leads to a 3-4 per cent rise in real GDP per capita, it said.

Recommending policy actions to the host and source countries, ADB economists said governments of host countries of migrants need to ensure that migrant workers have access to social protection, including employment-related support and social assistance, as well as health services.

They should support employers to help retain and hire laid-off workers, including migrant workers.

Such effort contributes to the smooth recovery of the economy by ensuring workforce availability and the reduction of contagion risks, said the report.

Among others, the host and source countries should continue to recognise remittance service providers as one of the essential businesses to allow migrants and families to transact without disruption as remittance money is a lifeline for many poor and vulnerable families left behind.

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Asia-Pacific to bear the brunt of COVID-19 crisis, may see $31.4-54.3 billion remittance losses: ADB - The Financial Express

Sujit Kumar, a worker from Bihar stranded in Bathinda, Punjab, had not eaten in four days when a volunteer from Stranded Workers Action Network (SWAN) spoke with him on April 3.

Two tribal women from Jharkhand had been told they would be paid Rs.9,000 a month to work in an incense factory in Bengaluru. They were beaten up, paid Rs.200 and made to work for 15 hours a day. One woman was even raped inside the factory premises twice. Civil groups managed to rescue and secure their passage home.

Sanoj was part of a group of 15 people who had been living on the pavement post-lockdown. They had difficulty accessing food and received no help from the police in finding shelter. Fortunately, a SWAN volunteer chanced upon the group and helped it.

Several such stories of suffering and rescue have been chronicled by SWAN, a network of volunteers who banded together very quickly in the early days of the lockdown to help thousands of migrant workers in distress. The network has released reports with information and data that could prove valuable in shaping labour policies.

When Prime Minister Narendra Modi announced a janata curfew on March 22 in a bid to curb the spread of COVID-19 infections, there was a hint that the country would soon have to enter a complete lockdown. However, the announcement shockingly came just three days later and the authorities gave a four-hour deadline to begin a complete shutdown.

It is well documented that millions of people were left confused. The working class was, and continues to be, among those worst affected by the lockdown. The country was witness to heart-wrenching images of men, women and children walking long distances to reach their villages, seeking food and shelter, with some dying en route.

At the time, the unfolding migrant worker tragedy had no impact on the Centre or the State governments. Until early May, little help was given. The failure of the state was so glaring that it was left to civil society organisations, trade unions and ordinary citizens to provide immediate help, even if it was something as minimal as giving just Rs.200 to buy groceries.

On March 27, under the banner of SWAN, a group of academics, social workers, students, union members and concerned citizens spread across the country and began helping workers from various States who were stranded, hungry and shelterless and in need of money to return to their villages.

Over two months, SWAN used an extensive web of humanitarian organisations, trade unions and social workers to help 35,000 migrant workers reach home. This was a drop in the ocean no doubt, given that lakhs of migrant workers were stranded all over the country.

But the point is not about numbers and how many lives were saved but how a group of empathetic and knowledgeable people came together to deploy an effective solution at a time when the government, with all its resources, did not get its act together and even refused to acknowledge the existence of such a crisis.

Furthermore, SWANs efforts were not limited to helping the migrant workers reach home. The data collected and analysed by a division of volunteers have been published as three comprehensive reports, which were released at intervals during the lockdown.

Each one is a substantial resource that provides moving accounts by migrants, insights into the crisis, and statistical and data analysis. The reports also include recommendations on handling such a crisis.

A disclaimer says that the exercise was never meant to be a research project but was only aimed at providing immediate help to those badly in need of it.

Yet, because the scale of the tragedy was staggering, the reports findings went a step beyond being just a record of the initial days of the lockdown.

The reports were deliberately published during the lockdown so that policy makers could take cognisance of the plight of migrant workers. Unfortunaley, they were not given much consideration.

Speaking to Frontline about SWANs genesis and its future plans, Bengaluru-based Rajendran Narayanan, one of the main convenors of SWAN and assistant professor at Azim Premji University, said that the entire operation was a collaborative effort by several organisations, collectives, students and even a few committed bureaucrats.

According to him, SWAN as an entity grew organically for a specific purpose for a specific period of time. Its journey began when Sanjay Sahni, a social worker with the Samaj Parivartan Shakti Sangathan (SPSS) in Muzaffarpur, Bihar, received distress calls during the early days of the lockdown from a group of 50 migrant workers from Bihar who were stranded in Mangaluru, Karnataka.

Sahni, who had worked with Narayanan, contacted him and sought his help.

A few well-wishers sent money to the workers so they could just subsistbuy food, medicines, recharge phones, etc. Word probably got around and soon calls were coming from various sources in different States. Sahni realised the scale was huge and very quickly a group of us realised we had to put together a system to address the crisis, said Narayanan.

According to him, the system was built on the concept of providing assistance by primarily linking stranded workers with local organisations.

Volunteers set up a helpline that took details of the callers problems. These would be verified by the local link, which would then provide help such as food and government facilities for shelter and later, journey home.

Each callers information was put on a spread sheet so that the network could track the person and ensure they were safe.

By March 30-April 1 we had a system in place. A team was looking into finances, another manning helplines, teams [were looking] into verification of information, logistics, technology, social media, etc. Volunteers worked on a shift system so that someone was available at all hours. It was a mind-numbing and emotional experience, said Narayanan.

He added: All of it was done purely on a voluntary basis. I tapped into the Azim Premji University alumni [network] for help and the response was amazing. SWAN had approximately 120 volunteers during the peak of the crisis.

Explaining the operation, Narayanan said that there were people working with SWAN in every troubled State. As the crisis grew, teams were responsible for zones across the country.

Yet, the reality was that cash in hand was the need of the hour. Reaching out to friends, work associates, anyone who would help, SWAN was able to collect funds that were distributed among stranded migrant workers, he said.

Responding to word-of-mouth appeals, people donated small and large amounts. The finance team provided directions to the donor on where to send the money; most of the time it was directly to the person in distress.

There were cases where the bank would charge a penalty as the account did not have the minimum balance; to reactivate it, an automatic debit would take place.

Over two months, we disbursed approximately Rs.50 lakh, which is a reasonable amount, said Narayanan.

SWANs reports include several letters to the Ministry of Home Affairs and the State governments of Maharashtra, Gujarat, Bihar, Tamil Nadu, and Uttar Pradesh, indicating its efforts to bring the crisis to the notice of the authorities. Other than Karnataka, the response from the States was poor. In fact, the Maharashtra government was particularly hostile, said Narayanan.

Narayanan, who is actively involved in the Right to Food and Right to Work campaigns, said that the lack of social protection measures and safety nets was glaring.

Interestingly, he said, poorer States such as Bihar and Odisha helped their people, while richer States such as Maharashtra and Gujarat shut their doors on those who kept their economies alive.

There are an estimated 10 crore migrant workers in the country, according to available data, although migrant workers do not enjoy formal recognition.

Also, the warehouses of the Food Corporation of India now have 2.5 times the buffer stock norms, and there is no reason why rations should not be universalised, Narayanan said.

According to him, it was a good time to empower the panchayat and form a federation at that level. They are the only ones who know how many members of the village have left and where the workers have gone. Unfortunately, the Central government has reduced federalism to monopolising decisions and socialising losses.

Anoushka Kale, a graduate from Azim Premji University and SWAN volunteer based in Pune, said that the experience was an eye-opener. She was fielding 30-40 calls a day in the early days of the crisis. The conversations were mostlyabout securing food. But I felt speaking to a person in distress humanised them. They may have been desperate but they spoke with dignity and respect.

The SWAN reports are small repositories of data and a documentation of the migrant crisis. Each one also provides a set of recommendations, including creating a safety net for migrant workers and specifics such as depositing Rs.7,000 into each workers accounts until they gain employment again.

The network released its first report, titled 21 Days and Counting: COVID-19 Lockdown, Migrant Workers, and the Inadequacy of Welfare Measures in India, on April 15.

In the introduction, the report said: The first three weeks of the lockdown have been utterly distressing for stranded workers and goes far beyond mere pareshaani as the PM put it. Despite the immense hardships that millions of stranded workers continue to endure, there was still no announcement on economic relief measures for them. Unless a combination of universal rations and money transfers are implemented in letter and spirit, India is staring at alarming levels of destitution and despair.

The first report deals largely with immediate problems such food and starvation issues. Here are some glimpses of data tabulated from the distress calls in the first report: 50 per cent of workers had rations left for less than one day; 96 per cent had not received rations from the government and 70 per cent had not received any cooked food; and 89 per cent had not been paid by their employers at all during the lockdown.

The numbers are alarming both in absolute and in relative terms. Half of those who have reached us would not be able to eat the next day without immediate intervention, the report said.

With 78 million tonnes of grains in FCI warehouses, its a now-or-never situation. Governments have had two weeks to ensure a robust ration supply network, doorstep delivery, etc., to reduce hunger. However, figures indicate very few have benefited even in the third week of lockdown.

The second report, titled 32 days and counting, is an extension of the first and was released on May 1. By then, SWAN had helped 16,863 people. The report describes the various appeals made to the establishment to release support, including a petition filed by SWAN in the Supreme Court. The petition was dismissed on the grounds that the Central governments programmes were adequately covering migrant distress.

The chapters titled Rate of hunger and distress exceeding the rate of ReliefOverview and Neither one nation nor one ration card, migrants fall between contain relevant and topical matter within the pandemic context.

Statistics in the second report showed that 32 days after the lockdown began, four out of five workers who reached out did not have access to government rations while 68 per cent did not have access to cooked food.

With no cash relief, 64 per cent of the migrant workers had less than Rs.100 left with them. With no change since April 14, about 78 per cent of people have Rs.300 or less left with them. As on April 26, only about 6 per cent of all those who have reached out to us have received their full wages during the lockdown. About 78 per cent have not been paid at all. More than 99 per cent of the self-employed have had no earnings during this period. These include street vendors and rickshaw pullers.

The third report, titled To leave or not to leave? Lockdown, migrant workers and their journeys home, looks at the fourth phase of the lockdown and gives detailed accounts of workers trying to get home.

The report said that 67 per cent (of 1,963) migrants were still in the same place when the lockdown was announced; only 33 per cent had left. Some 44 per cent of those who left took buses and 39 per cent managed to get on a Shramik Special train. About 11 per cent travelled by trucks, lorries and other such modes of transport, while 6 per cent made the perilous journey on foot.

The first-person accounts and case studies in this report are gripping. The stories speak of starvation, police brutality, physical abuse and government apathy, revealing the colossal tragedy of the migrant exodus.

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The SWAN reports: Records of heroism by migrant workers - Frontline

The head of Germanys most populous state North Rhine Westphalia (NRW) visited the migrant camp Moria on the Greek island of Lesbos on Tuesday. After speaking to organizations working there, Armin Laschet called on the whole EU to "wake up" and said that he had listened to those in despair in the camps.

Armin Laschet, from the conservative CDU (Christian Democratic Union)party, is the head of Germany's most populous state North RhineWestphalia and has been touted as one of the future candidates totake over from German Chancellor Angela Merkel when she leaves officeat the next elections.

OnTuesday August 4, Laschet visited migrant camps on the Greek islandof Lesbos and spoke to those working for aid organizations in thecamps. He told the news agency dpa that visiting the camps was likelistening to "screams of desperation".

'Wake up Europe!'

Laschetcalled upon the European Union to "wake up" and said thatGermany's holding of the rotating EU presidency offered the chanceto find some "lasting solutions" to the migrant crisis. He saidthat Europe needed to help the Greek government and not leave theGreek people, the migrants themselves or those that run the camps andwork in them alone.

Likeseveral other German states, NRW has already taken in smallcontingents of unaccompanied children and vulnerable people from theGreek camps as well as boasting one of the greatest number of asylumseekers in Germany in 2019. According to German government statisticsfor the end of 2019, North Rhine Westphalia had a foreign populationof just over 15%, although not all of those people are asylumseekers, refugees or even recent migrants.Assessing the situation

OnAugust 3, Laschet met with Greek Prime Minister KyriakosMitsotakis, as well as the country's foreign minister NikosDendias. In a press release on NRW's state website, Laschet saidthat his Greek visit was to help him gain a personal understanding on thesituation in the migrant camps on Lesbos.

Followingthat meeting, Laschet stated that Europe needed to "work togetherto protect its external borders and provide humanitarian help forrefugees who arrive on the Greek islands." He said although themigrants had arrived on Greek soil they had essentially stepped on to "European soil, and so any solution to their problems had to be viaEurope too."

AlthoughLaschet called off his visit to the main camp in Moria, due to security concerns, he did visita smaller camp at Kara Tepe in Mytilene on Lesbos. This camp is thehome to those most in need of protection, including victims oftorture, people with disabilities, pregnant women, old and illpeople.During his visit, accordingto his press statement, Laschet also plans to meet with teams fromFrontex and the mayor of Mytilene before leaving the island. Whilston the island, Laschet reiterated his state's intention to take inmore children in need of protection and their closest family members "in the coming weeks."

He saidthat although Germany was also busy fighting the COVID-19 pandemic inthe camps in Greece the virus had "another meaning entirely."Laschet noted that many of the camps' inhabitants were unable to leavethe camps freely because of the virus and that made many migrantsfeel they were living in a hopeless situation with "noperspective."

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Leading German politician visits Greek migrant camp and tells the EU to 'wake up' - InfoMigrants

A failure by the UK to reach a new agreement with France on how to deal with migrant crossings could lead to numbers reaching crisis levels, an ex-Border Force chief has warned.

It comes after a record number of crossings to Britain in a single day last week, and followsa Government minister branding the number of incidents unacceptably high.

Tony Smith, the former head of UK Border Force said the UK and France need to agree a treaty with a joint patrol whereby migrants picked up in the Channel can be returned to France to have asylum claims considered there.

He told the PA news agency: What Im advocating is that we need to try as best we can to replicate the juxtaposed controls for legitimate applicants in the same way as for illegitimate applicants.

If they want to come to the UK they need to make their case on the French side, and if they are found in the waterways or even make it as far as Dover we say Im sorry but you go back there and thats where you will be interviewed and processed, on the French side.

Last month Home Secretary Priti Patel sought to level blame at her French counterparts, telling the Commons Home Affairs Committee of the unacceptable numbers of people making the perilous journey in small boats.

On Saturday Immigration compliance minister Chris Philp called on France to be stronger on intercepting vessels at sea and directing the return of boats which are trying to get to the UK.

At least 202 migrants managed to cross to Britain on Thursday in a surge of 20 boats, a single-day record.

Asked how hopeful he is of the Home Office being able to reach a new deal with France, Mr Smith said: I wouldnt like to call it as to whether or not they can make the breakthrough.

All I would say is weve done it before and the numbers then were far greater.

I think there are potentially opportunities but there will have to be some kind of a quid pro quo which would satisfy the French that this was a measure that was designed to help both parties, not just a one-way street where the UK essentially is able to blockade anybody coming over from France.

He said the current approach is putting peoples lives at risk and fuelling the smuggling supply chains.

The number of migrants in small boats intercepted by Border Force on Friday fell to 96, but Mr Smith said if daily numbers were to continue in the high hundreds youre going to start getting up to the numbers that actually were indeed a crisis almost 20 years ago.

He added: I do worry that if we cant get a new agreement with the French on returns were not going to be able to stop this and we could see numbers of the scale of which weve seen in years gone by.

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Call for UK treaty with France on migrant crossings to avoid 'crisis' numbers - expressandstar.com

The UK is on the brink of losing the highly skilled and experienced migrant workers currently propping up the care sector. If the government does not make changes to its new points-based immigration system a major crisis could emerge. These key workers cannot be replaced by digital innovations, while UK workers are increasingly reluctant to enter into what is a low-paid and extremely stressful profession.

It is estimated that the care sector requires 520,000 additional workers before 2035 to support the UKs ageing population. The sector currently relies on migrant workers. Most migrant care workers are set to be excluded from the governments points-based immigration system, unveiled in July, because the pay is so low.

From 2021, new rules will require a minimum pay threshold of 20,480. This will effectively prevent migrant care workers and home carers from entering the UK because average pay for care workers is 16,500 per year. Low pay means that, regardless of their ability to accrue transferable points, care workers will not be eligible for visas.

Additionally, the work done by care workers and home carers does not meet the skills threshold for the new Health and Care Visa. This visa will fast track migrants in the healthcare sector, offering reduced application fees and exempting them from the Immigration Health Surcharge (624 per year from October 2020). But the new visa is only for doctors, nurses and other health professionals not care workers. Excluding care workers could potentially be disastrous.

For the past decade, approximately one in six or 83,000 of the 1.5m home care and care workers in England have been non-UK nationals. While the proportion of migrants has been stable, their countries of origin have changed. Most migrant care workers came from outside the EU until 2012, when the current minimum pay threshold of 30,000 was introduced. After 2012, EU migrants took up care work jobs because this minimum pay threshold did not apply to free movement.

Brexit will end free movement for EU care workers at the same time as the new salary threshold is applied to migrants. Currently, the sector has an 8% vacancy rate. Where will desperately needed new workers come from? Leading health bodies, care workers and home carers themselves are deeply worried about this change.

Migrant care workers are typically overqualified. Many have professional healthcare qualifications in nursing, or prior experience in the sector. Care work does not offer adequate remuneration to reflect their skills. It involves depressed wages, long hours and difficult work conditions that discourage British workers. Migrants can endure these conditions when they are able to invest their earnings in property, business and family betterment back home (where many will hope to retire).

For British workers, on the other hand, care works low wages rarely lead to better prospects. Many find themselves pushed towards the care sector when they cannot find other work. Often this push comes at a point where they have little security in their housing and personal lives. Adding to their insecurity, around one-quarter of care work is now delivered through zero-hours contracts.

With under-staffing, longer hours or truncated visits, even care workers working steady hours find themselves overwhelmed and exhausted. Research shows that staff shortages and longer hours lead to increased fatigue, irritability, and demotivation for workers and these conditions can lead to potentially dangerous mistakes.

But if migrants are blocked from taking these roles then UK residents will be expected to plug the gaps. In April, the health minister, Matt Hancock, began a recruitment drive for the sector, targeting 20-39 year-olds. Previous recruitment drives have done little to alleviate the sectors chronic labour shortages. Despite a 20% increase in advertised care roles in the first quarter of 2020, applications decreased by 17.8%. Previous drives havent affected the sectors 30% turnover rate which has risen from 23% in 2012. Data on recruitment and retention tell us these are not desirable jobs.

Current care workers report highly exploitative conditions including a lack of adequate sleeping and sanitary facilities. Precarious conditions and low pay have meant some care workers have had to use foodbanks and claim benefits. Meanwhile, in the COVID-19 pandemic, female careworkers and home carers have had the highest death rates of all occupations for women.

Jobs in the rest of the healthcare sector are being transformed. The NHS has furthered its digital first approach during the pandemic, spurred on by social distancing requirements, through NHSX its new digital branch, which was formed in April 2019. With annual investment of more than 1bn, NHSX claims to be the largest digital health and social care transformation programme in the world. But the video/telephone/email consultations that are proving effective for other patient and staff groups will be slow to come to care work. Though these technologies can lower costs in other health settings, the feeding, cleaning and personal care which comprises care work cannot be digitised.

Devaluing care and labelling care workers unskilled has created a sense of alienation and hopeless frustration for British care workers. Long hours, low pay, intensely physical and emotionally demanding work can undermine the ability of carers to care either for themselves or others. Improvements to pay and working conditions are long overdue. But it is a change in the new immigration scheme that is needed most, if the emerging crisis is to be averted.

Huge sections of the UK community rely entirely on these un-cared for workers. A coerced and reluctant workforce will most definitely affect the quality of care the sector delivers.

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New points-based immigration system will lead to care crisis - The Conversation UK