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Coronavirus is currently tearing its way through the Western world. But the loss of life, destruction of the economy and paralysis of infrastructure will be exponentially worse in the developing world - and it could lead to a migrant crisis the likes of which Europe has never seen before.

Worst case scenarios in the UK mention perhaps half a million deaths, if no measure were put in place to stop the spread. This would be a tragedy never before seen in peacetime. This will pale in significance, however, once the disease starts to spread in places like sub-Saharan Africa, to say nothing of conflict zones like Gaza, Yemen or Iraq.

The Gaza Strip already has some of the poorest medical care and health outcomes of anywhere in the world. And the cramped living conditions - where 2 million people live in an area the size of Detroit (which has only a third of the inhabitants) - are the worst circumstances for attempting to contain an epidemic.

Added to this, Gazans are disproportionately young; almost half of them are under 14, and the median age is just 18. This matters because we know that children are the main carriers of the disease, spreading it to older, more vulnerable relatives.

When these crowded conditions are known to increase the likelihood of people transmitting infectious diseases, how are Gazans supposed to practise self-isolation when they are living in such an over-developped territory with only 50 or 60 ventilators available?

But Gaza is not the worst place in the Middle East to contract COVID-19. Yemens war-ravaged population will almost certainly be brought to its knees by the virus without intervention. The five-year war in Yemen has left 10 million people at risk of famine and has decimated the nations healthcare system. Even basic sanitation is often not available.

Access to clean water takes on a whole new dimension in the midst of this global pandemic. The advice in the Western world is to wash your hands regularly with soap and warm water - but this means nothing to the 40% of the world who do not have access to basic hand washing facilities.

The situation is similarly dire in Iraq which, despite quarantines and lockdowns, has a healthcare system that is poorly-equipped at the best of times. Iraqs body count will be exacerbated by the countrys porous border with the regional disease epicentre of Iran (the entire Iran-Iraq border is opened annually to facilitate pilgrimages for Shia Muslims).

Many in Europe and North America are understandably preoccupied with the health emergencies at home. It is only natural to be more concerned about what is happening on our doorstep; the virus, however, is borderless. And so are its most desperate sufferers.

Just as the Syrian conflict led to the largest mass migration since the second world war, the COVID-19 pandemic may lead to one even larger - and potentially more dangerous. Syrian doctors believe the virus has already taken hold in the countrys refugee camps.

As thousands, or perhaps even millions, die, the worlds most desperate people - many of them in sub-Saharan Africa or the Middle East where there are already well-established people smuggling networks - will look for safety.

Whereas the last migrant crisis was driven by the need to avoid terror groups and airstrikes, the next one will be based on the need for basic healthcare. And unlike in the past, the migration bottlenecks of Libya and Turkey are unlikely to cooperate with Europe in holding back the tide - particularly if they themselves are facing their own epidemics.

Just as Europe has begun to flatten the curve of the outbreak, and begins to assess the economic and social fracture caused by the disease, it may be faced by a second wave - not only of the disease, but of the financial and societal strain caused by an influx of migrants.

Just as there have been reports of the super-rich fleeing their homes as the virus spreads, it is only natural that the super-poor will do the same.

The only solution is to support communities in these places before it is too late. International aid has become almost non-existent in this crisis. Even EU solidarity has disappeared, replaced by Chinese assistance which led to Italians chanting grazie Cine! and the Serbian President going so far as kissing the Chinese flag.

PR-driven aid is one thing; providing real opportunities to those most affected is something else. We can all do this by funding and working with aid agencies who are already on the ground to try and halt the outbreak in the Global South before it is too late.

The charity that I run, the Lady Fatemah Trust, uses our Mothernomics model to empower widowed mothers in places like Iraq to be economically productive. That productivity can save lives beyond their own. Recently, many of them have found employment manufacturing face masks to hold back Iraqs epidemic.

If COVID-19 cannot be stopped there, those widowed mothers and their orphaned children may soon be arriving at our doorstep in Europe. And that is something neither our governments nor our societies are prepared for.

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Without continued aid, the next migrant crisis will be people fleeing coronavirus not war View - Euronews

UNHCR staff build a temporary medical ward outside the Erasmo Meoz Hospital, in Ccuta, Colombia, as part of the stepped up response to COVID-19. The facility has the capacity to attend to 72 patients. UNHCR

With the coronavirus pandemic testing health care systems around the world, UNHCR, the UN Refugee Agency, and IOM, the International Organization for Migration, are calling attention to the challenges facing refugees and migrants from Venezuela.

At a time when the worlds attention is focused on COVID-19, and as governments and populations, particularly health workers, heroically come together to combat this virus, we should not lose sight of the needs of the millions of Venezuelan refugees and migrants, said Eduardo Stein, joint UNHCR-IOM Special Representative for refugees and migrants from Venezuela.

COVID-19 has brought many aspects of life to a standstill but the humanitarian implications of this crisis have not ceased and our concerted action remains more necessary than ever. We are urging the international community to boost its support for humanitarian, protection and integration programmes, on which the lives and welfare of millions of people depend, including host communities.

The current global public health emergency has compounded an already desperate situation for many refugees and migrants from Venezuela, and their hosts. Funding to support them is urgently needed.

Many depend on insufficient daily wages to cover basic needs such as shelter, food and health care; others have no roof over their heads. With growing fear and social unrest, Venezuelan refugees and migrants are also at risk of being stigmatized.

Governments in the region have been leading and coordinating the response to ensure those leaving Venezuela can access rights and documentation. But as national capacities become stretched to a breaking point, the wellbeing and safety of Venezuelans and their host communities is at risk.

Millions of refugees and migrants, and the communities hosting them, continue to need urgent support, particularly as the economic impact of the Coronavirus pandemic begins to be felt across Latin America and the Caribbean.

The coordination of the humanitarian response for refugees and migrants from Venezuela is conducted through a Regional Inter-Agency Coordination Platform (Response for Venezuelans-R4V), complemented by eight national or sub-regional platforms. Platforms are operating through a sector approach with the participation of 137 partners. In addition, WHO-PAHO leads the health-related aspects of the COVID-19 response.

The Regional Platform has activated a critical revision of all operations in the region to prioritize essential protection and life-saving actions and promote the inclusion of refugees and migrants in national programmes. In close coordination with WHO-PAHO, the R4V is also collaborating with national and local authorities to address the new challenges and deliver basic support to Venezuelan refugees and migrants, as well as to host communities.

While maintaining physical distancing measures, partners are implementing a number of prevention and response activities in the main locations where refugees and migrants from Venezuela are hosted. These activities ensure people can adequately access information, clean water, soap and appropriate waste disposal. Organizations are working around the clock to find innovative ways to continue supporting the most vulnerable individuals in the current context while also supporting national authorities to set up observation and isolation spaces for potential positive COVID-19 cases.

So far, the Regional Refugee and Migrant Response Plan (RMRP) launched in November 2019 to respond to the most urgent needs of refugees and migrants from Venezuela in 17 countries, as well as the local communities hosting them, has received only three per cent of the requested funds, which could put at stake the continuity of lifesaving programmes throughout Latin America and the Caribbean.

For more information on this topic, please contact:

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For background information please consult the Regional Inter-Agency Coordination Platform website: R4V.info

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Refugees and migrants from Venezuela during COVID-19 crisis: as needs soar more inclusive measures and aid are essential - UNHCR

A young Warao indigenous refugee from Venezuela washes her hands after an educational session on preventing the spread of the coronavirus, given by UNHCR and a partner NGO, Fraternidade, at a shelter in Boa Vista, in northern Brazil. UNHCR/Allana Ferreira

In the face of the COVID-19 crisis, we are all vulnerable. The virus has shown that it does not discriminate but many refugees, those forcibly displaced, the stateless and migrants are at heightened risk.

Three-quarters of the worlds refugees and many migrants are hosted in developing regions where health systems are already overwhelmed and under-capacitated. Many live in overcrowded camps, settlements, makeshift shelters or reception centres, where they lack adequate access to health services, clean water and sanitation.

The situation for refugees and migrants held in formal and informal places of detention, in cramped and unsanitary conditions, is particularly worrying. Considering the lethal consequences a COVID-19 outbreak would have, they should be released without delay. Migrant children and their families and those detained without a sufficient legal basis should be immediately released.

This disease can be controlled only if there is an inclusive approach which protects every individuals rights to life and health. Migrants and refugees are disproportionately vulnerable to exclusion, stigma and discrimination, particularly when undocumented. To avert a catastrophe, governments must do all they can to protect the rights and the health of everyone. Protecting the rights and the health of all people will in fact help control the spread of the virus.

It is vital that everyone, including all migrants and refugees, are ensured equal access to health services and are effectively included in national responses to COVID-19, including prevention, testing and treatment. Inclusion will help not only to protect the rights of refugees and migrants, but will also serve to protect public health and stem the global spread of COVID-19. While many nations protect and host refugee and migrant populations, they are often not equipped to respond to crises such as COVID-19. To ensure refugees and migrants have adequate access to national health services, States may need additional financial support. This is where the worlds financial institutions can play a leading role in making funds available.

While countries are closing their borders and limiting cross-border movements, there are ways to manage border restrictions in a manner which respects international human rights and refugee protection standards, including the principle of non-refoulement, through quarantine and health checks.

More than ever, as COVID-19 poses a global threat to our collective humanity, our primary focus should be on the preservation of life, regardless of status. This crisis demands a coherent, effective international approach that leaves no-one behind. At this crucial moment we all need to rally around a common objective, fighting this deadly virus. Many refugees, displaced, stateless people and migrants have skills and resources that can also be part of the solution.

We cannot allow fear or intolerance to undermine rights or compromise the effectiveness of responses to the global pandemic. We are all in this together. We can only defeat this virus when each and every one of us is protected.

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The rights and health of refugees, migrants and stateless must be protected in COVID-19 response - UNHCR

Over the past decade or so, the European Union has weathered the global financial crisis, a migrant crisis, and the rise of populist nationalism. Sure, it's taken its fair share of bumps and bruises along the way, but the idea of a largely borderless Europe united by common democratic values has survived more or less intact.

Then came the coronavirus. The global pandemic, in which Europe is now one of the two main epicentres, is a still-spiralling nightmare that could make those previous crises look benign by comparison. Here are a few different ways that COVID-19 is severely testing the 27-member bloc:

The economic crisis: Lockdowns intended to stop the virus' spread have brought economic activity to a screeching halt, and national governments are going to need to spend a lot of money to offset the impact. But some EU members can borrow those funds more easily than others. Huge debt loads and deficits in southern European countries like Italy and Spain, which have been hardest hit by the outbreak so far, make it costlier for them to borrow than more fiscally conservative Germany and other northern member states. In the aftermath of the global financial crisis, this imbalance nearly led the bloc's common currency, the Euro, to unravel.

Today, Europe has already unleashed some serious financial firepower to fight the current crisis, mainly through its central bank. But some of the other steps that may be necessary to prevent an economic collapse, like an EU bailout fund or crisis bonds, have reignited long-standing disagreements between North and South. A meeting of Eurozone finance ministers next Tuesday will be an important sign of whether Europe can pull together on the financial front.

The border crisis: In a bid to stop the spread of the virus, countries across the union have imposed border controls, some banning all entry to non-nationals. Although measures like this are technically allowed during emergencies like pandemics, they've caused huge traffic jams and disruptions to the flow of important goods. Relatedly, some member states have restricted shipping critical medical supplies with fellow EU-members, for fear that they will be needed at home.

When and under what circumstances these borders are relaxed again will be a very thorny political question, which raises concerns about whether one of the EU's great achievements the vaunted Schengen area allowing unhindered, passport-free travel across the EU will survive the crisis intact.

A crisis of democracy: Hungary's lurch towards "illiberal democracy" was the subject of serious hand wringing in Brussels well before the pandemic hit, but member states never took sufficient action to deter it. Now that the strongman Prime Minister Viktor Orban has used the crisis to grab nearly unlimited executive powers, Hungary has become an existential test of the EU's commitment to democracy and the rule of law. Other illiberal forces in Europe and beyond will be watching to see how Brussels and the other member states respond.

Bottom line: For now, the EU is holding together amid the biggest crisis in the continent's post-war history. But it's still early days. As the death toll and economic destruction mount, tougher tests of the EU's ability to function as a bloc, rather than a collection of states with competing interests, may be yet to come.

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A COVID-19 test for the European Union - GZERO Media

BRUSSELS/FRANKFURT (Reuters) - Leaders of nine EU countries urged the bloc on Wednesday to issue a common debt instrument to cushion their economies from the shock of the coronavirus crisis, challenging Germany and others adamantly opposed to pooling risk across the continent.

FILE PHOTO: European Union flags fly near the European Commission headquarters in Brussels, Belgium, October 4, 2019. REUTERS/Yves Herman

European Union finance ministers broadly agreed the previous day on an idea that governments grappling for funds might apply for a credit line worth some 2% of their GDP from a joint bailout fund called the European Stabilisation Mechanism (ESM).

But there was no agreement on joint debt issuance across the 19 member states that share the euro single currency - long a goal for the Club Med group of mostly southern member states, most prominently Italy, and just as much a red line for a group of wealthier northern countries known as the Frugals.

That left it to the leaders, who will meet in a videoconference summit on Thursday, to thrash out the issue.

Germany was one of the founders of the euro zone, in which the European Central Bank sets monetary policy for all the 19 countries that share the EUs single currency, the euro.

But the ECB, to its regret, has no power over budgets.

ECB chief Christine Lagarde asked the ministers at their meeting on Tuesday to give serious consideration to a joint issue of corona bonds as a one-off, four officials said.

One official said her proposal had run into opposition from Germany, the Netherlands and other northern European countries, but also a lot of support beyond Club Med. Germany and others could block the proposal at Thursdays meeting.

Sources said the German position, as it was in the 2010-2012 euro zone sovereign debt crisis, is that taking part in a mutual bond issue or corona bond is still a step too far, and would be resisted by its parliament and constitutional court.

There is also public opposition to putting German taxpayers money on the line to help countries seen as more spendthrift than Germany, which, alone among euro zone members, runs a balanced budget.

The push-back from northern countries - which sources said included the Netherlands, Finland and Austria - in the face of Europes most serious crisis since World War Two highlights a lack of solidarity that has been undermining the EUs principle of shared values ever since the debt crisis and the migrant crisis of 2015.

Some member states were initially reluctant to share medical equipment with Italy, which has suffered the deadliest outbreak, and several countries have reintroduced border controls - recalling the migrant crisis - inside what is normally the open-frontier Schengen Zone.

In a joint letter ahead of Thursdays virtual summit, nine countries, led by economic heavyweights France, Italy and Spain, called for a common debt instrument issued by a European institution to raise funds on the market.

By givingaclear message thatwearefacingthis unique shockall together, we would strengthen the EU and the Economic and Monetary Union and ... provide the strongest message to our citizens about European determined cooperation and resolve to provide an effective and united response, they said.

The letter was also signed by the leaders of Portugal, Ireland, Luxembourg, Slovenia, Belgium and Greece.

Officials say the need for a decision on a bailout plan has been reduced by the ECBs announcement of a coronavirus emergency bond-buying program worth 750 billion euros.

Still, the ECB has long sought a euro zone-wide safe asset, arguing that a Euro Bond would be key to crisis-proofing a currency bloc that came close to collapse in the debt crisis only a few years ago.

A German government spokesman, responding to the letter, said it was normal for leaders to put forward proposals ahead of EU summits, but in the end the matter would be decided by all member states. No comment was immediately available from the Netherlands or Austria.

Such an instrument would give Brussels a fiscal lever that could be moved quickly and in tandem with the ECB, which has for years complained that budget policy is out of sync with monetary policy, hindering its economic stimulus efforts.

It would also let commercial banks cut holdings of their home countrys debt, breaking the so-called doom loop between banks and their host country in which any regional debt crisis can quickly morph into a banking crisis as well.

Additional reporting by Balazs Koranyi in Frankfurt, Andrey Khalip in Madrid, Gabriela Baczynska in Brussels and Andreas Rinke in Berlin; Writing by John Chalmers; Editing by Kevin Liffey

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Club Med takes on the Frugals in EU 'corona bond' bailout battle - Reuters