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Turkey is counting down to elections on 14 May, with the economy the single most important issue for voters.

But the migrant crisis is also seen as critical -- not just for the public, but for the political parties vying for power.

The last decade has witnessed a wave of arrivals with people fleeing the war in Syria. Many passed through Turkey and went on to Europe, but millions remained in the first point of safety.

Some surveys show that as the number of foreigners has increased, so has anti-migrant sentiment.

That has meant immigration issues are a hot election subject, which could have implications for the EU as well.

The opposition'National Alliance'bloc is hoping to gain votes by pledging to send two million Syrians back to their homeland within two years. According to official figures, Turkey hosts 3,447,837 Syrian refugees registered under temporary protection as of March 2023.

Meanwhile, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, facing harsh criticism for his migration policy from his own supporters, has tried to appease both sides.

Last year, he reiterated that his government was working on a return scheme to send one million Syrians back voluntarily. Days later, he said: "We will never expel them from this land. Our door is wide open. We'll continue to host them and not throw them into the lap of murderers."

Five months before the election, Erdogan announced more than half a million Syrians had chosen to go home, saying voluntary returns were "accelerating".

Migrants have become a bargaining tool between Ankara and the European Union.

In 2016, the EU-Turkey Refugee Deal was struck, which aimed to stop the influx by sending migrants caught entering Greece irregularly back to Turkey. For every Syrian returned, another would be resettled in the EU.

In return, Brussels promised to give Ankara 6 billion to help accommodate Syrians, besides visa liberalisation for Turkish nationals.

For Professor Kemal Kirici of the Turkey Project at the Brookings Institution, the deal was "utterly successful" for the EU, though he doubted if a similar deal could be struck in the future.

Some 37,000 Syrians have been relocated to Western countries under this one-for-one principle.

According to Kirici, the most feasible and realistic solution for Turkey would be to use refugees to help rebuild afterFebruary's devastating earthquake, rather than expel them.

He pointed to a UN proposal for the EU and West to give Turkey trade concessions if it createsformal and sustainable employment for both Syrian refugees and locals.

Commenting on theproposal, Kirici writes: "It would reduce Syrian refugees dependence on humanitarian assistance, help alleviate public resentment, and diminish the prospects of secondary movements".

He told Euronews Syrians there was strong support for the plan.

"Until last year, Syrian refugees were increasingly feeling integrated into Turkish society," he said.

But growing public resentment has meant refugees are now "doubting their presence and acceptance", making them want to leave.

Recent years have seen growing anti-Syrian sentiment in Turkey, with the economy taking a tumble.

In 2017 only around 32% of Syrians wanted to settle in a third country, in 2021 this number had risen to 64%.

Meanwhile, Kirici claims migrants are unlikely to be a top priority for the new government, which will face more pressing issues such as the economy.

Regardless of the election result, migration will likely remain a thorny issue for years to come.

"Deportation and returns have been a hot topic for a long time," said Dr Sibel Karadag, an expert on migration and borders at Kadir Has University. "Western countries are deporting migrants to their neighbouring countries and the neighbours sending them to the countries of origin."

She pointed to an official policy of dilution and sweeping in Turkey, where migrants are sent back to areas of northern Syria under Turkish control, "under the name of voluntary returns".

This will continue, according toKaradag.

But more profound changes may be afoot.

In its election campaign, the opposition bloc outlined afour-step solution to the migrant crisis in Turkey.

First, it wants to try and make peace with the country's neighbours and "sit down" with the Syrian government

Erdogan's party is yet to announce its election manifesto. However, his desire to negotiate with Syria and efforts to relocate Syrians are key parts of the election campaign.

For both experts, making peace with Damascus is not a possibility, while Ankara has troops in northern Syria.

Migration and border governance will also remain key to EU-Turkey relations, according to Karadag.

"The EU has aimed to externalise this issue to Turkey as part of its wider global approach to control migration and Turkey has ... turn[ed] it [migration] into multi bargaining tool", she argues.

Ankara has used "the threat" of opening its border to bargain "additional financial support or tacit political tolerance for the regime", Karadag adds.

In February 2020, Erdogan bused thousands of migrants to the Greek border, warning that more would be sent unless international support was forthcoming and the EU stopped criticising its military intervention in Syria.

Violent clashes erupted at the border, with Greek police stopping anyone from crossing.

For Karadag, if Turkey tried to return its migrant population en mass, we may see similar scenes again, though the Turkey-Greece border is much deadlier with proven pushbacks from Greek security forces.

"The European Union will continue to support any kind of extra-legal action to stop migrants reaching its doorstep," she says.

"The first task [for the new government] should be to build a critical and strong diplomacy with rights-based principles against EU's migration and border policies."

"[It] should carry out a policy that puts human dignity at the forefront."

Original post:
What will happen to Turkey's EU migrant deal if the opposition wins? - Euronews

A severe housing shortage and an influx of refugees and migrants contribute to the overall public mood of discontent in Ireland. The government is looking for solutions to support both local communities and newcomers.

Thousands of Irish families face the prospect of eviction as the government's winter eviction ban ended on March 31. The main opposition party, Sein Fein, an advocate for social and housing issues, said it be would "cruel and wrong" to force thousands of families into the streets at a time when homelessness in the country is already at record levels.

Amid the severe housing crisis, many individuals "are experiencing the very harmful crossover of homelessness while seeking asylum," said Olivia Teahan of the Migrant and Refugees Rights Center, Nasc.

"People arriving in Ireland are often experiencing high levels of trauma, isolation, language barriers, and lack of legal and medical support, with no contacts in Ireland. They face further challenges when left to survive alone, homeless and at risk," she added.

Since the Russian invasion of Ukraine began, Ireland also took on a significant number of Ukrainian refugees.

"Ireland accepted more refugees per capita than the United Kingdom or France," noted Claire Kumar, a senior research fellow at the Open Data Institute (ODI).

Last year, the government struggled to accommodate the influx of almost 60,000 Ukrainian refugees alongside around 20,000 nationals coming from other countries. Multiple media reports highlighted the plights of mainly Ukrainian refugees sleeping in government-provided tents during the winter months when temperatures plunged to minus degrees.

In January, the government had to resort to publishing a message on social media, asking refugees who were already in a safe place not to travel to Ireland because the country was not able to accommodate them.

The number of Ukrainians requesting temporary protection in Ireland the same month dropped by 2,000 individuals compared to December -- representing one of the steepest drops across the European Union.

The housing crisis in Ireland is so entrenched in the collective mind that seven out of 10 young people say they are thinking about moving abroad simply because they cannot afford housing.

"The housing issue is a huge challenge and for the far-right; it is an obvious place to manipulate," said Kumar. "With the significant increase of asylum seekers, and very high numbers of Ukrainians, spreading discontent is an easy strategy."

The lack of housing, pressure to accommodate refugees, record homelessness and the eviction ban about to expire were all factors for a perfect storm to brew: In November, around 100 people gathered in Dublin's East Wall to protest against its use as a refugee center.

"Far-right groups use terms like 'invasion' and slogans like 'Ireland is full,' a direct reference to the housing crisis," said Kumar.

"This is alla recent development in Ireland. Events even becameviolent with anattack on a migrant campin north Dublin by a river."

Also read: Ireland: Protests and new policy proposals place focus on migration

"What has been good is that at a community level, the reaction was immediate with counter protests in many small towns and a very large protest in support of migrants in Dublin," Kumar added.

Irish politicians have also spoken out against the anti-migrant rhetoric, with the President Michael Higgins calling the recent "anti-migrant" sentiment "unforgivable."

"The far-right threat is being contained and government policies show unity of approach:the refugee accommodation crisis has to be tackled in parallel with the wider housing challenge, both of equal importance," said David Donoghue, a senior research fellow at ODI.

Teahan echoed this opinion, referring to plans of opening three new city center hubs to support Ukrainian families.

"We very much welcome plans to deliver accommodation solutions, but we are hoping that any new developments will meet the requirements and commitments outlined in the White Paper on Ending Direct Provision," she said.

Also read: Ukrainian refugees in the UK face homelessness as housing schemes end

Ireland's system of institutional accommodation, called Direct Provision, has become known as a recipe for limbo for asylum seekers: "They should be living in communities butmanyget stuck in a confined and restricted systembecause of significant delays in processing asylum applications, and because the severity of the housing crisis can make leaving Direct Provision to move into the community very difficult," said Kumar.

"Its vital that reception centers for newly arriving international protection applicants would have built-in integration supports on arrival.It's also crucial that the government prioritize mid- and longer-term accommodation strategies going forward," said Teahan.

Immigration was once a minor political issue in Ireland compared to other themes. With elections due to be held in less than a year, it is about to become a lot more important.

Also read: Accommodation troubles continue for Afghan refugees in UK

Read more from the original source:
How Ireland's housing crisis affects refugees and migrants - InfoMigrants

Welcome to World Brief, FPs new flagship daily newsletter.

Today, OPEC+ grants Saudi Arabia an oil win, Finland elects a new prime minister, and Israels far-right firebrand fights for his own national guard.

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A trip to the gas pump may soon come with sticker shock after OPEC+ announced another set of cuts to oil production on Sunday. Starting in May, the oil cartelled by Saudi Arabia and Russiawill slash output by 1.65 million barrels a day in a bid to push up the global price of crude.

The announcement comes amid a crucial shift in the global economy: Beijings decision to lift zero-COVID restrictions brought its sizable market back online, increasing demand for crude. This created an opportune moment for OPEC+ nations to raise oil prices, said Raad Alkadiri, managing director of energy, climate, and resources at Eurasia Group.

Crude prices were also beginning to settle after last months banking crisis led many hedge funds to fear they were risky assets and sell their oil shares. OPEC+ hopes cutting production will reverse weeks of macroeconomic uncertainty.

But not everyone is happy with the decisionespecially in Washington, where the Biden administration is concerned the move will cause gas prices to rise at home and harm efforts to curb high inflation around the world. Central banks are struggling to rein in inflation without raising interest ratesparticularly in Europe, which could be facing a looming recession in the coming months.

Its also yet another sign of the increasingly rocky relationship between the United States and Saudi Arabia. Riyadh has refused to cut ties with Moscow over its invasion of Ukraine, undermining the effectiveness of Western sanctions on Russia. Against U.S. wishes, the cartel announced in October 2022 that it would cut its output by 2 million barrels of oil a day. In response, the United States partially drained its Strategic Petroleum Reserve to support Ukraine and keep oil prices in check.

Last week, however, President Joe Biden said it could take years to refill the reserve, meaning the Wests biggest powerhouse has little ammunition left. They basically used all the bullets they had last year, said Livia Gallarati, a senior analyst at Energy Aspects. Now, theyre left with little to nothing that they can do to counterbalance the impact of the OPEC production cuts.

But its the major oil importers in less developed parts of the world that are expected to bear the brunt of rising petrol prices. Alkadiri predicts Pakistan in particular, which is already struggling with a severe energy crisis, could face significant financial pressure.

Since the nations that announced oil cuts are doing so voluntarily, it is possible for OPEC+ to reverse course. But the likelihood of the bloc doing so is minimal, Gallarati said, and the damage to its relationships with Western allies is done.

China Has Been Waging a Decades-Long, All-Out Spy War by Calder Walton

Israel Is Somewhere Its Never Been Before by Aaron David Miller and Daniel C. Kurtzer

Bidens State Department Needs a Reset by Stephen M. Walt

Tuesday, April 4: U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken holds a bilateral meeting with Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba in Brussels.

G-7 trade ministers meet virtually.

Wednesday, April 5: Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky visits Poland.

Wednesday, April 5, to Saturday, April 8: French President Emmanuel Macron visits China.

Thursday, April 6: Russian President Vladimir Putin and Belarusian President Aleksandr Lukashenko meet.

Helsinkis electoral twist. Finlands ruling party suffered a bitter defeat, with Prime Minister Sanna Marin losing to center-right former Finance Minister Petteri Orpo in Sundays election. Orpos National Coalition Party secured 20.8 percent of the vote, compared to the 19.9 percent won by Marins Social Democratic Party. Candidate Riikka Purras populist Finns Party won 20.1 percent, a record for the right-wing group.

Marin garnered international attention after securing the top post in 2019 at the age of 34. As the countrys youngest leader in history, Marin won praise at home and abroad for successfully navigating the COVID-19 pandemic, Russias invasion of Ukraine, and Finlands NATO accession bidset to be officially signed on Tuesday. However, she faced political embarrassment in the summer of 2022 when video of her out partying and drinking with friends surfaced. She also failed to keep her party together on key Indigenous rights legislation, journalist John Last wrote for Foreign Policy.

In contrast, Orpo is known for his handling of the 2015 migrant crisis while internal minister. He campaigned on tax and spending cuts, notably to welfare programs like unemployment benefits, as well as reducing public debt. Speaking to journalist Emily Schultheis for Foreign Policy, Orpo said hed be willing to work with the other candidates in building a potential coalitionif significant policy differences were overcome first.

Moscow arrests Russian dissident. Authorities detained a 26-year-old anti-war activist suspected of being involved with Sundays bombing in St. Petersburg, Russia, which killed a pro-Russia blogger. Around 30 people were injured in the blast. Moscow blamed Ukrainian intelligence as well as agents linked to Russian opposition leader Alexey Navalny for the attackwithout providing evidence.

The Kremlins announcement indicates Moscow may begin to further crack down on Russian dissidents in the coming days. Since its invasion of Ukraine, Russia under President Vladimir Putin has engaged in intense disinformation and propaganda campaigns to combat the West.

Justice comes to Kosovo. Former Kosovar President Hashim Thaci begins his trial at a war crimes tribunal in The Hague on Monday. He stands accused of committing more than 100 murdersfrom executions to the deaths of mistreated prisonersduring Kosovos 1998-1999 war of independence against Serbia. Thaci pleaded not guilty.

The guerrilla leader targeted enemies of the Albanian Kosovo Liberation Army during his reign. Thaci, along with three other men, each face six counts of crimes against humanity and four counts of war crimes.

Israeli National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir may be the only member of the countrys current government to have secured an even stronger political position from Israels recent turmoil. On Sunday, Israels government approved his call to form a new Israeli National Guard within the National Security Ministry.

The far-right politician is known for pushing Jewish supremacy and anti-Arab racism within Israels Religious Zionist Party. He has endorsed increasing Israeli settlements in the West Bank and sparked anger in January after making a controversial visit to the Temple Mount/al-Aqsa Mosque complex in Jerusalem, a site sacred to both Jews and Muslims. He has also been convicted multiple times for incitement and supporting a Jewish terrorist group.

Now, critics of Ben-Gvir, such as former police chief Moshe Karadi, worry that the national guard, if under Ben-Gvirs direct control, will act as his personal militia and could be used to instigate a coup. A committee composed of the countrys security agencies and the relevant government ministries is expected to discuss the responsibilities ofand control over the new force and submit its recommendations to the cabinet within 90 days, according to a government press release.

It seems the French have found the one thing they can all agree on: banning scooters. Parisians voted to outlaw electric scooters in the capital on Sunday, with an overwhelming 90 percent of votes in favor of the law. Now, if only they can come together on issues like pension reform.

Originally posted here:
OPEC+ Oil Production Cuts Hurt Western Economic Prospects - Foreign Policy

Trumps arraignment

Donald Trump has a busy day ahead of him tomorrow. He returned to the Big Apple Monday night and, after getting some shut-eye in Trump Tower, the former president will head to the Manhattan courthouse on Tuesday for his indictment. After his court appearance and a quick photo-op, hell jet back to Mar-a-Lago before an evening news conference.

Sound like an orchestrated plan? Thats because Trumps team wants to capitalize on the publicity blitz around his arrest to bolster his bid for the 2024 Republican presidential nomination. Theres reason to believe this is working: Since the news of his indictment dropped, his campaign claims to have raised $7 million, and his polling numbers have soared above other Republican candidates.

On March 30, Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg brought the results of his investigation before a Manhattan grand jury, which voted to indict the former president. Trump is expected to plead not guilty on Tuesday.

While the charges against him have not been revealed, they likely involve Trump's reimbursement to his former attorney and fixer, Michael Cohen, who paid adult film star Stormy Daniels $130,000 in exchange for her silence ahead of the 2016 election. The Trump Organization then filed Cohens $420,000 reimbursement and bonus as a legal expense.

Falsifying business records is only a misdemeanor in New York, but if it is done with the intent to commit or cover up another crime namely, violating campaign finance laws then Trump could be looking at a Class E felony and a minimum of one year in prison.

Trump will be the first former US president to be indicted on criminal charges. But whether his indictment will push the GOP to jump ship in favor of another candidate, or what it means for the campaign if they dont, remains unclear.

On Tuesday, Finland finally joins NATO, lengthening the alliances border with Russia by 800 miles and adding to its ranks some of the worlds most fearsome snow snipers. Good work, Mr. Putin!

But remember who isnt joining the club? Sweden, whose accession bid remains blocked by NATO member Turkey, who says Stockholm still hasnt done enough to quash Kurdish terrorist groups that are at war with the Turkish government. Note that Turkey dropped similar objections about Finland last week but is still squeezing Sweden.

Why? For one thing, Turkeys pugnacious President Recep Tayyip Erdoan faces a very tough election in May, and flexing against the West like this can stoke nationalist passions in his favor. He may also seek concessions from his Western partners elsewhere, say, on Washingtons refusal to sell him state-of-the-art fighter jets, or its support for Kurdish militias in Syria.

For years, Erdoan has played a shrewd game as a NATO member but friend to Putin; a European partner on the migrant crisis but at a price. By greenlighting Finland while holding back on Sweden, hes showing hes willing to be reasonable but that he expects his pound of flesh too. Will it work?

Times are tough economically speaking in Egypt, and President Abdel Fattah el-Sissi is looking to mend and shore up relations across the region. On Monday, el-Sissi traveled to Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, to meet with Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, aka MBS, the countrys de facto leader.

El-Sissi's visit comes as the economy of import-reliant Egypt is reeling as a result of economic mismanagement and Russias war in Ukraine. (Egypt has been forced to devalue its currency three times over the past year.)

While Riyadh has long doled out funds to help keep cash-strapped Egypt afloat, it recently said that it will no longer hand out blank checks and that Cairo should implement reforms to receive aid. El-Sissi likely wants to convince MBS that hes already making some changes as part of a deal with the International Monetary Fund.

Another big topic on the agenda? Reintegrating Syria, deemed a pariah by the West, into the Arab League. This comes just days after Egypt and Syria held high-level talks for the first time in a decade as Cairo looks to reestablish diplomatic ties with Bashar al-Assad. Indeed, Egypt is just the latest Arab country to welcome Syria back in from the cold, with reports that el-Sissi hopes to eventually win lucrative contracts to help rebuild the war-torn country.

Go here to see the original:
What Were Watching: Trumps day in court, Turkey stuffing Sweden, Egypt buddying up - GZERO Media

Investigators believe many were brainwashed by smugglers and social media posts advertising safe routes to the UK.

But they could now be pivotal in providing vital clues to investigators on the smugglers identities, the routes they take and how they control different camps in Northern France.

The NCA believes migrants will realise the immense danger people smugglers put them, and their children, in and may be motivated by trying to prevent friends and family from being put in peril.

Gangs are also buying cheap, dangerous single-use boats made just for a solitary Channel crossing, the Daily Express understands.

But we're really keen to hear from those individuals.

At the time, they wanted to get here, they're almost brainwashed with the social media from the facilitators.

Theyve arrived here. They may now realise the risks that they've undertaken or the risks their children have been put through, or their family members in the future.

We're really keen to engage with those members of the community now because they may hold some really important information about the facilitators, the groups, and their journey.

Mr Morris said many of the migrants come from countries where there is no trust in the police or the authorities.

He added: Part of our process will be initially using Crimestoppers, completely anonymous and that is the way were going to start to communicate out to individuals.

Our angle is, at the end of the day, they are human beings. Not everyone, although theyve arrived here criminally, committed offences.

We just want to explain the differences between the UK authorities and police forces and start building that trust because, like general policing by consent, were only as good as the intelligence we are getting from our communities.

Yes, some we will need to pursue because they are causing us problems, but there is a vast number that we can work with."

Asked if the NCA had spoken to the Home Office about the idea, Mr Morris said: They understand that theres no one silver bullet. Yes, we will pursue the criminals and those criminal elements.

A lot of our information comes from that initial engagement with migrants as they come off the boats and if there are individuals already here that can tell us about their journeys, and are happy to, then we really want to reach out to them and the Home Office will understand that that will build on our knowledge of the wider threat.

Senior members of the NCA also revealed gangs are, en masse, buying cheap boat engines so poorly constructed that they cannot be sold in Europe.

They are also increasingly concerned that profits from Channel people smuggling operations are being reinvested in drug and gun crime networks. People smuggling is feared to be a stepping stone into even more lethal trades.

The Home Office fears around 80,000 migrants will cross the English Channel this year. The NCA admitted 2023 is likely to be another record-breaking year as refugees flee wars, natural disasters and economic catastrophes.

Mr Morris said: When you look at those numbers and why we say they are going to be higher, part of that is because if we look at the areas that are suffering from conflict, and with really drastic living standards, that is increasing.

They [the smugglers] are reassuring people that you can use the small boat method, it is extremely cheap and when you get to the UK, you are over the goal line and you are made for life.

All those messages are wrong. More and more migrants that have arrived by this route are realising it is not such a pleasant environment.

The Daily Express has been told there are criminals in the UK exploiting the Channel migrant crisis.

But the NCA does not currently believe any heads of the smuggling gangs operating in the Channel live in the UK.

Kurdish gangs are still largely believed to control most of the smuggling routes. But the lengths of the beaches in Northern France means there is still space for more gangs to operate, despite many taking control of migrant camps and even certain beaches where they launch their boats from.

The smuggling networks are said to be younger and more chaotic than traditional organised crime networks which rely upon clear structures.

Amid an influx of Albanian migrants crossing the Channel last Summer, investigators were concerned other gangs may try to wrestle control from the Kurds.

Albanian crime gangs have brutally gained control of Britains cocaine market and dominate in nearly every city.

But the NCA told the Daily Express they are not seeing cocaine and gun-running gangs shifting to people smuggling as there are greater profits in the more traditional commodities.

Mr Morris said: The profits that can be made from the people smuggling, small boat method, are there because the volumes of customers, passengers being put on those boats

There are still much better profits on the more traditional commodities. If we are looking at trafficking in a shipment, there may be shared loads. They may mix commodities. It might even put firearms on drugs loads.

The only issue is, and this happens across other commodities, is if they are lower sophisticated, they are starting to make money in this area, then if they want to make more money and become more successful, they will move into those other commodities.

The money they make from this will undoubtedly be invested into those commodities. If you think, one of our issues with the small boat issue, it is UK-specific.

Facilitators are living within their communities, are making money from this and will be expanding into other criminalities.

Were not seeing people coming from drugs or other more traditional commodities. As Ive seen in our thematic reporting, this is their stepping stone into that more profitable work.

People smugglers are trying to boost their profits by cramming more migrants into dangerously poor-quality boats.

But gangs are attempting to cut costs as well, by purchasing single-use boats and engines.

Katherine Tyler, the head of the NCA team fighting organised immigration crime, told the Daily Express: The boats that we are seeing being used are sometimes single-use boats.

They are not boats that you would see for sale through the normal market.

They are specifically made, in order, for single use, perhaps specifically for crossing the Channel.

The greatest concern is that the numbers of migrants per boat is steadily increasing.

Mr Morris added: They are using very low quality engines. Brand new, single use and the indications are they are being bought en mass.

They are low quality, cheap, mass-produced engines which the criminals involved basically use as a single-use disposable engine, like the boat.

Thats probably the actual regard they have for the human beings on the boat.

Read more here:
Migrants to join UK's fight on people smugglers with anonymous tip-offs - Express