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The realities of migration and a tumultuous refugee crisis are not just on Turkey's agenda but the entire world. The number of people who leave their homes and countries for various reasons and flock to foreign countries is increasing rapidly. Some are on the road alone, others are with their families, their elderly parents and their children wrapped in swaddling clothes. The journey into the unknown becomes even more frightening with the difficulties they encounter in the countries they arrive in.

Recently, the issue of immigration the extent and its result cannot be forecasted was discussed recently at a two-day conference held in Istanbul. I was among the observers of the Global Parliamentary Migration conference held on June 20-21, hosted by the Turkish Parliament with the initiative of Parliament Speaker Mustafa entop. After the conference, where potential solutions to the migration and refugee problem and necessary steps to be taken were evaluated, I met entop to discuss what was on my mind.

I first wanted to touch on Turkey's immigration burden, which is heavier than most countries. When I asked for entop's views regarding the necessity of easing this burden, he said: "It is necessary to alleviate the heavy migration burden on certain countries and ensure that it is shared fairly."

Everyone, from politicians and bureaucrats to citizens, shares the same idea on this issue. After all, Turkey has been hosting the highest number of refugees in the world for eight years. Our population is 85 million, and according to official statements, there are 4 million refugees in the country, 3.6 million of which are Syrian. That means that around 5% of the population consists of refugees. Yes, the number is high and this is a cause of concern. While the issue of migration and refugees is common, many Western countries continue to ignore it.

Based on what I witnessed, I can say that the prohibition of discrimination in the West generally remains on paper. Prejudices, xenophobia and double standards prevail throughout that part of the world. Instead of taking responsibility for a tragedy, they shift the burden of migration and the responsibilities entirely on the shoulders of the surrounding countries. Is this state of ignorance sustainable? By looking at the influx and reasoning, I would say absolutely not. At this point, all countries must act with a humanitarian and conscious approach. To take action, governments must not lose time.

So what is the reason behind this state of ignorance regarding the issue of migration? Is Islamophobia the reason they want to close their doors on refugees, or the resulting economic burden that the refugees would bring to their countries?

If you ask me, it's the lack of empathy. I would fully endorse this statement from entop: "Actually, there is no multiculturalism in Europe. From time immemorial, Europe showed no tolerance for those who were different and expressed no desire to live together. Even among themselves. Catholics, Protestants and Jews lived separately. Europe does not have an inclusive, comprehensive culture that can transform into high culture."

As someone born and raised abroad, I agree with him 100%. Turkey, unlike Europe, comes from a multicultural world. Turkish people live in a land where people with different languages and religions have lived together for over 1,000 years. That is why integration is much easier for Turkey.

In my opinion, it is incorrect to say that the West maintains considerable distance from migrants coming from the Middle East and Africa because of religion. Even if they behave with more tolerance toward immigrants from within Europe compared to those from the Middle East, they are closed to immigration among themselves. Ultimately they do not want to include people from other countries. This is the main problem. But it is an inevitable situation. In the new world order, whether they like it or not, all countries will experience this, and they will continue to receive immigrants, legally or illegally.

I believe that migration will continue because war is not the only reason people sail into the unknown. There are even more important reasons for migration beyond war and safety. Of course, people are unsafe because of conflicts and wars. They are trying to escape their homeland. But this problem can be solved. In my opinion, economic difficulties and the lack of humane living conditions are among the reasons that should be considered more seriously. After all, when people facing hunger cannot find a job in their own country and their hopes are exhausted, it becomes inevitable to embark on a deadly journey.

Furthermore, another more permanent and long-term reason for migration has emerged in recent years: Climate change. Many regions are becoming uninhabitable even though there are job opportunities. Famine, drought and abnormal meteorological circumstances compel people to leave their homeland.

Although there are distinct reasons behind this inevitable migration, there is a general concern that the demographic of society has deteriorated, regardless of how much we try to empathize. Ignoring this reality is objectionable, as it will set the stage for social outrage. It must be explained that this situation is not unique to Turkey. There is an unstoppable movement everywhere, from Europe to Africa. Noticeable demographic changes are happening in the world.

When immigration is mentioned, countries like Syria, Afghanistan, Pakistan and Sudan first come to mind. But the Russia-Ukraine war has changed this perception. The war caused Europe to confront the issue of migration more closely. Western countries had to experience the events they once watched from afar right under their noses. According to official figures, approximately 7 million people moved to nearby countries within a month and a half.

I remember the speaker of the Polish parliament saying at the meeting of the European Union Parliament Speakers in Slovenia that 2 million people came to his country in 15 days. This statement did not create the desired effect in the room, and no one found this figure interesting. Then he said "the population of Slovenia is 2 million. Imagine, a Slovenia came to us in 15 days." Finally, the audience came to their senses with this concrete example. At that moment, it made me think that it was time to understand that these numbers are not just mathematical equations but that each number represents a helpless person. It is time to show empathy and be a humanist rather than a racist.

There is the reality I mentioned before: The number of people in Turkey disturbed by the rate and intensity of migration to the country is not low at all. Some are worried that this situation will become permanent. I wanted to get some information from entop regarding what authorities think about this and what they are doing.

I found his response hopeful: "Of course, we all know the magnitude of Turkey's burden. But one should not think that it is completely permanent. Turkey is a destination country on the one hand and a transit country on the other. Since it is located at the intersection of Asia, Africa and Europe, there may be transfers via Turkey. After all, there will be a voluntary return when conditions improve in Syria. I think most of them will go," entop said.

I do not believe this return has anything to do with worsening conditions in Turkey, as some claim. Because I know this: Life is difficult for refugees everywhere. They are not citizens, the jobs they can do are limited, and they are trying hard to hold on in a country where they do not even know the language.

In terms of Syrians specifically, most of those in Turkey are living under difficult conditions. Therefore, I think they will prefer to return to their country over time. Also, if Western countries support Turkey's investment in the safe zone as they have promised, the return process will accelerate. But the West's approach of "this is your problem and their problem" paints an embarrassing picture for humanity and seeks to intensify the problem.

But there is still hope that the promises made will be fulfilled and everyone can return to their motherlands and loved ones as soon as possible.

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Is there hope for global migrant waves? | Daily Sabah - Daily Sabah

The United Kingdoms Rwanda asylum policy has been in the global spotlight since it was signed in April this year.

The U.K government introduced this policy under the economic development partnership. Through this, the asylum seekers will be flown 6,500 km away to Rwanda, which will handle the processing of their asylum claims.

This deal was introduced mainly as a measure to prevent the loss of life that happened because of the dangerous crossings. This policy will be introduced as a pilot for 5 years.

The UK has made an upfront payment of 120 million to Rwanda to cover the cost of housing and integration of the asylum seekers till their applications are processed.

In the wake of the migrant crisis of 2015, more than one million migrants and refugees crossed into Europe. There was a divide between how different European Union countries responded. Some welcomed the migrants, while some made their immigration policies stricter.

In 2016, when Britain decided to withdraw from the European Union, one of its most important themes of the campaign was taking control of immigration. And after Brexit, the U.K introduced a policy that gave entry to those who wanted to work in the U.K. through a points-based system.

In 2021, over 28,000 people entered in boats, compared to 8,500 people in 2020. They seek the help of human smugglers and illegal traffickers.

But the migrants will be given refugee status only based on the strength of their asylum claim. Those rejected would have to leave the country within 5 days.

On June 15, the first flight that was set to carry the asylum seekers to Rwanda was cancelled at the last minute.

This was after the European Court of Human Rights ruled against it as some of the immigrants didnt have the guarantee of a legal future in Rwanda.

Rwandas own human rights record is another reason why this policy faces flak.

In the past other countries like Australia, Israel, and Denmark have also established such policies. They were also deemed cruel and were opposed heavily.

Reports say that the legality of the U.K-Rwanda asylum policy will be tested in a full court hearing next month.

Read more:
Watch | Why is UK sending its refugees to Rwanda? - The Hindu

Zofia Zayons has cancelled her gym membership,physio sessions,streaming services andhas stopped eating out.

"At this point, the only thing that I can leverage is my time," Ms Zayons, from Hobart, said.

Juggling an interest rate rise after purchasing her first home last year, and an electricity bill she waswarned by the providerwould double, Ms Zayonsdecided tofindextra work.

Outside of her full-time role as a venue manager, Ms Zayons, 29,is moonlighting in a wine barand as a freelance communications officer for a government agency.

"I'm managing [working threejobs] but I'm tired and I know that what I'm doing now isn't sustainable forever,"she said.

"My next steps are a little unclear about how I'll continue to manage the future."

With little time between shifts at her three jobs, Ms Zayons plans her meals ahead, determined to avoid eating out.

Adapting to rising costs while remaining on a stagnant wage,Ms Zayonssaid she had also begun to buy some frozen vegetables rather than fresh ones, and was thinking twice before turning on the heating.

"You don't really expect that after studying two university degrees, taking on further study in your field, [and] having worked for five years that you do have to take on extra work it's kind of frustrating," she said.

Lucas Walsh, director of Monash University's Centre for Youth Policy, said young people were coming of age in a time of soaring house prices, less secure job markets and credential inflation where more and more qualifications were needed to secure a particular level of earning.

All of which, Professor Walsh said, was making it harder for them to plan their futures.

"Not being able to plan creates a level of uncertainty that has anxiety attached to it,"he said.

The markers of adulthood, like moving from education to the workforce, securing a house through ownership or rental, and starting a family were breaking down, Professor Walsh said.

"These markers are being eroded by things like the inflated housing prices andthe fact that less secure work is making it more difficult for young people to secure loans,"he said.

While Professor Walsh said it was too early to understandhow the current cost of living crisis was exacerbating these trends, he was certain about one thing.

"When we see economic downturns such as the global financial crisis, we see young people impacted immediately and disproportionately in relation to other age groups," he said.

For culturally and linguistically diverse communities, Professor Walsh said the impacts of an economic downturn could be compounded.

"If you're from a first- or second-generation migrant background, you're more likely to experience racism and exclusion, and that flows on into employment,"he said.

Mira Sulistiyanto, 25,in Adelaide is tossing up whether she should take a financial riskand return to university for post-graduate study next yearto upskill.

Ms Sulistiyanto, who currently works full time in the international development sector,said she wasworried that reducingher working hours and accruing more HECS debtwas not a smart idea in the current economic climate.

"I think there aresome important questions about whether increasing economic pressures do cause adeterrent for people to pursue further study, and the potential consequences of that," shesaid.

The rising cost of living isalso up-ending other parts ofher life.

Ms Sulistiyanto said shenormally travelled to Indonesia as often as possible to visit family in Java because itwas incredibly important to her.

But it was becomingdifficult to justify the travel costs, she said.

"Since the pandemic, and then with these increasing economic pressures, that's starting to feel not impossible, but definitely increasingly out of reach."

Ms Sulistiyanto said manyin her social circlesfelt the same.

Asense of economic dread was hovering above the conversations she had withfriends as they increasingly talked about money and shared tips on how to save.

Ms Sulistiyanto said she had tried to rein in spending on "luxuries" like catching Uber rides, eating out and cutting out takeaway orders.

She used helpful tricks from her friends including planning groceries a week in advance and dividing her earnings into 'buckets' in her bank account to save money.

In Wyndham Vale, on Melbourne's westernfringe, Vinu Shankar Ganesunand his young family recently moved into their newly-builthome.

But as costs continue to rise, Mr Ganesun and his wife Akilawho immigrated from India six years ago on skilled worker visas are beginning to consider if they should stay in Australia.

"[If we're] no better off compared to where we came from, it raises that migration question," Mr Ganesun said.

"Do we move closer to the family [in India] and at least that way we feel more comfortable?"

Mr Ganesun,who runs his own business consulting firm, said new migrants like him were in a unique situation when it came to cost of living pressures.

Not only does Mr Ganesun support family in India, and cover travel costs so they can visit each other, he is trying to build a life from scratch in Australia.

"[It's] kind of like travelling on two rails," he said.

"A lot of times you also have wider responsibilities, especially if you have younger siblings, so you are sort of financially responsible for them as well."

With his wife driving more than 110km each day to work inearly childhood education, and the family eating a plant-based diet,Mr Ganesun said fuel and grocery costs had risen steeply.

He said it was hard to cut down on fuel costs because the public transport in his area was not very accessible.

Mr Ganesun said the rising prices meant he was yet to start paying himself super since starting his own business last year.

"I've been busy making ends meet and have not reached the level of substantial savings when I feel like I can now start investing in my super,"he said.

"The cost of living just eats into the savings, and that has a longer-term impact on our financial goals."

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Laura Higgins, from ASIC's MoneySmart which provides free tools and services to help people make financial decisions said there were a number of things people could try if they wanted to improve their financial situation.

The best place to start was to make a list of all spending,Ms Higgins said.

"Understanding all of your financial commitments, being really honest about that, and understanding where your money's going," she said.

It was important to assess needs versus nice-to-haves and consider where changes in spending and priorities could be made, she said.

"How much money are you spending on groceries versus takeaway and going out to restaurantssometimes tweaking your spending and changing the balance of that can make a big difference."

Transport was another area where savings could be made. Ms Higgins said carpooling or bike riding were things people could consider to lower fuel costs.

"[Even] once a week, those behaviours can make a big difference over time," she said.

Sharing costs and downsizing everything from finding a housemate and sharing bills to culling online subscriptions could be considered, Ms Higgins said.

For those feeling overwhelmed, Ms Higgins suggested reaching out to the National Debt Helpline on1800 007 007 or accessing MoneySmart's other resources online.

"Making some changes can be a good thingand can be quite empowering, and change the way people feel about their financial situation," she said.

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Posted2 Jul 20222 Jul 2022Sat 2 Jul 2022 at 7:33pm, updated3h ago3 hours agoMon 4 Jul 2022 at 10:12pm

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Australia's cost of living crisis is forcing some to make difficult decisions about their future - ABC News

Cubans have once again made headlines in the international press, as many set off on perilous journeys either by land or sea in a bid to flee the troubled island nation.

This comes in the wake of thedeaths of 53 migrantsfrom Guatemala, El Salvador, Honduras and Mexico after being trapped inside a sweltering tractor-trailer truck found abandoned in San Antonio, Texas.

Police and paramedics descend on the scene of a tractor-trailer in San Antonio, Texas, where 53 illegal migrants from Central and South America died.

AP Photo/Eric Gay

The driver, along with two other men from Mexico, remain in custody as an investigation continues into the tragic discovery in late June 2022 which has become the US's deadliest smuggling episode at the Mexico border.

Those who have emigrated from Cuba have told SBS Spanish that, despite such horrors, they preferred the risk of death to continuing to subsist in a "hopeless" way, in a country whose precarious socio-economic situation has been aggravated by the pandemic and soaring inflation.

The Facebook pages of Cuban users are full of the stories of those who try to escape.

"A brother of mine and his young daughter are currently making their way through Central America - in vans, on buses, on horseback, on foot, through densely forested river areas, says a Cuban whose name is suppressed for security reasons.

He remembered the movie Life is Beautiful and told his daughter that they were in a game and that in the end, a dollhouse awaited her as a prize.

Unfortunately, this story is replicated in the thousands of Cubans unable to bear conditions at home.

Highlights:

Cuba and the US have, as far as emigration is concerned, a shared history of more than two centuries.

The phenomenon gained a special dynamism after the 1959 revolution which was consolidated in 1980 with the Mariel boatliftand intensified again in the 1990s with the crisis of the "rafters", which involved Cubans attempting to cross to the US with makeshift boats.

The migratory waves would intensify again in 2015 to 2017. However, recent events look set to eclipse these past attempts.

My decision to leave Cuba was because of economic problems, but at the same time, also because of political problems, a Cuban migrant told SBS Spanish.

A United States Border Patrol agent on horseback tries to stop a migrant from entering an encampment on the banks of the Rio Grande in Texas.

AFP

According to Cuban journalists and economic analysts who write for alternative digital journalism platforms such asEl ToqueandONcuba, the measures adopted in 2020 by the Cuban government with theaim of reordering the country socioeconomically have represented only a collection of disjointed patches with devastating collateral effects for the country's economic stability.

Newspaper articles published on these platforms claim thattheconvulsions of the economy in full economic reorganisation have placed a significant part of the Cuban population in a vulnerable predicament.

However, the official version of the Cuban government is at odds with this view, stating instead thatthe Cuban economy is recovering "gradually".

In an article in the newspaperGranma, Deputy Prime Minister and Head of Economy and Planning for Cuba, Alejandro Gil Fernndez, claims that the Cuban economy grewin the first quarter of 2022,experiencing "a growth of US$162 million compared to the same period in the previous year, although otherarticles published in the same medium point out that the recovery is taking place in the midst of tensions.

However, Cubans in exile say many citizens struggle to live with the lack of basic services and food security.

A Cuban migrant living in Australia said people faced shortages of essential items everyday, including food, water and even electricity.

She said everyday people are forced to stand in long queues just to buy the essentials.

Another Cuban, who now lives in the US, added that many Cubans did not identify with the obsolete archaic and totalitarian communism that has nothing to do with progress or with the development of human beings".

Within the Caribbean island, growing popular discontent has spilled out on to the streets, as evidenced in the protests that took place in July, 2021, the first of their kind in the country since the 1959 revolution which swept Fidel Castro to power.

An injured man stumbles after being injured during a demonstration against the government of Cuban President Miguel Diaz-Canel in Havana, on 11 July, 2021.

AFP

According to Cubans who spoke to SBS Spanish, the country urgently needs economic and political change so that it can meet the most pressing needs and the growing democratic aspirations of some of its citizens.

Without this, many Cubans are opting to emigrate to any part of the world where their freedom is respected.

The current exodus represents a record wave of migration that is unprecedented, both in terms of the volume of migrants, the diversity of age and social groups, as well as by the number of borders that Cubans are willing to cross to reach the main destination: the US.

One Cuban migrant said he had to pay a fortune amounting to around US$20,000 to be able to leave Cuba.

You must also pay the 'coyote' orsmugglerwho is the person who moves you from Nicaragua to the border of the United States of America.

Between November 2021 and February 2022, nearly 40,000 Cubans arrived at the US southern border, according to US Customs and Border Protection data.

Since the end of 2021, thousands of Cubans have chosen to emigrate via Nicaragua, after President Daniel Ortega lifted visa requirements.

Cuban migrants charge their phones at a temporary shelter in a school in the town of La Cruz, Costa Rica.

Once in Nicaragua, Cubans cross the borders of neighbouring states through different routes, guided by human traffickers, known as 'coyotes', who charge exorbitant sums of money to assist in the process.

During this ordeal, which can last weeks or even months, Cuban women, children, the elderly, men and young people walk thousands of kilometres, with almost no luggage.

They cross rushing rivers and dense jungles, all the while exposing themselves to crime, mafia groups, drug-trafficking cartels, violent gangs and countless other risks imposed by the current COVID-19 pandemic and the political tensions that characterize some of the countries through which they need to pass.

A young Cuban, whom we will callClaudiofor security reasons, and who recently arrived in the US illegally, detailed his perilous journey to SBS Spanish.

Claudio says that in Honduras, the group he was traveling with was ambushed by police on their way to Tegucigalpa.

When he crossed through Guatemala, in the Huehuetenango area, they were again almost caught by police.

He said that after hiding for hours, the 'coyotes' finally convinced the police to let them through by paying them US$50 for each person they let through.

Once in Mexican territory, the group of illegal migrants went from the state of Chiapas to Puebla, and from Puebla to Monterrey, in vans called trocas.

A damaged truck stands on the street after a gun battle between Mexican security forces and suspected cartel gunmen, in Villa Union, Mexico

AAP

In Mexico, Claudio said he and his group spent 18 hours lying in the back of several pickup trucks, under the inclement Mexican sun. The conditions were such that they could not move, eat or drink anything, he said.

We crossed the border through a part of the river, near an area called Mier City that is a ghost town, full of wineries where people are trafficked.

In Monterrey, the 'coyotes' handed them over to a Mexican cartel who would become the guides for the rest of their journey.

According to Claudio, it was extremely difficult to move surrounded by mobsters with assault rifles in a difficult terrain full of dangers. It was difficult also to know that his life depended entirely on them, he said.

Just a few minutes after crossing the river that lead to the US border, they were, once again, about to be intercepted by Mexican police.

However, fortunately, the Mexican police force, which Claudio considers "the most corrupt on the planet" let them pass, after a brief chat with members of the cartel who handed over payments.

"The river at eleven o'clock, almost twelve o'clock at night, is a black river with a strong current. There were people with children, a family from Matanzas who were walking with their little girl of 4 years, all kinds of people trying to cross," he said.

Migrants wait on the Rio Grande to cross to the United States, in Ciudad Acuna, Coahuila state, Mexico, 18 September 2021.

AAP

"The boat sometimes had to be pulled because there was so much current that it felt like it could turn. And so, after 15 minutes on the boat, sailing upstream, we finally arrived in the United States and surrendered," Claudio said.

"I was detained for 30 hours and there were 55 of us in one prison cell: Nicaraguans, Hondurans, Guatemalans... Many of them with deportation orders and I, thanks to a gentleman, after 30 hours in detention, got on a bus bound for Brownfield, Texas."

But there are also many Cubans who have literally thrown themselves into the sea with the hope of reaching US shores. Florida's southern coast is about 144kms from Cuba.

As an example, Elin Lpez Cabrera arrived in the US on March 23 on a windsurfer however others haven't been as lucky. Talented Cuban DJ Ernesto Hidalgo Mario, known as TIKO, lost his life trying to swim to the US.

Although most Cubans who emigrate intend to reach the US as their final destination, there are also waves of Cubans stranded in European, Asian or African countries.

Stories on social media sites reveal Cubans are also trapped in border towns impacted by war, as is the current case with the Russian-Ukrainian conflict.

Many Cuban emigrants have been stranded on the borders of Poland, Belarus and Ukraine, without documents or financial support, increasing their vulnerability in the face of war and the cultural and linguistic barrier.

There are also some Cubans who dared to emigrate to the other side of the planet on the land of "the kangaroos". Although far from the home, the relatively small Cuban community in Australia, is not immune to the migration crisis that is unfolding on their beloved island.

Ledian Pardo, who has made Australia his new home, says he feels the enormous pain of seeing his country divided between those who have left and those who have stayed.

Cubans who live outside the country feel a lot of pain knowing that their families are scattered throughout the world. I have family in Europe, I have family in Ecuador, I have family in Panama, obviously I have family in Miami and I have family in Cuba.

Like so many other Cubans living in Australia today, Ledian Pardo said he was also deeply concerned for those relatives, friends and acquaintances who are about to embark on dangerous illegal journeys.

This crisis affects us emotionally and economically, and it also brings us many worries because we suffer from all the pain our people are going through, Mr Pardo said.

For the most part, it is young people who decide to emigrate and take risks through dangerous terrain across Central American countries.

And we all know, that sometimes, many of them fail to reach their destinations. That creates enormous pain for every mother who can't see her child again and for every family who loses loved ones.

Cuban photographer Raul Prado arrives at Havana airport to travel legally to the United States.

AFP/Carlos Batista

Continued here:
Risking their lives to leave: Record surge in Cubans seeking safe haven in the US - SBS

The Future of War

By Major ONAMBELE MENDOUGA Guy Herve,

Cameroon Special Forces (Rapid Intervention Battalion BIR)

Imagine a Swiss businessman in Italy, near the city of Solferino. He probably went there for an important meeting that would increase his fortune. Unfortunately, there is a colossal battle between two opponents' camps while he is there. Gunfire resonates everywhere; soldiers are shouting, crying, yelling; the blood splashes and cuts the soldiers' heads, hands, and feet at every cannonball explosion. In the evening, more than 30.000 wounded and killed in action are abandoned on the field. Some cry, and the others are simply lifeless, dead. Henri Dunant witnessed this atrocity scene on the evening of June 24, 1859, at Solferino during the Italian independence war. The war opposed two camps. On the one hand, the Austrian empire and, on the other hand, the French-Italian coalition. This conflict between many state actors was by its nature brutal and violent, inhuman, and led Henry Dunant to take actions in favor of the wounded regardless of their camp. Later, Dunant's steps would create the international red cross, the Geneva conventions, and the law of armed conflicts. Solferino represents the war as we know it. A bloody military engagement between armies of two or multiple states. This type of war has rules that all the belligerents should respect; otherwise, they commit war crimes.

The above description portrays almost faithfully wars as we imagine them. States against states, armies against armies, mighty kinetic means opposing each other. This conception of war is a legacy of the thirty-year war and has endured for almost four centuries. But history is not static and evolves. So do the character of war, although its nature remains immutable. This implies that future wars are likely to be different from the heritage of Westphalia.

Consequently, it drives the following questions: will future wars be different from what humanity has known in the past three centuries? If so, how? Who will be the actors in the upcoming conflicts? In which arena and context will these clashes occur? How will these conflicts shape international relations? This paper argues that conventional wars will no longer reign as masters in the realm of disputes. It asserts that new types of warfare, including new actors, will coexist or compete with conventional wars. It portrays future warfare.

What is war? "War is politics, and war itself is a political action." For Clausewitz, it is merely the continuation of policy by other means, and Sun Tzu describes it as an art of vital importance for the State. The first two definitions have the word politics in common, and the latter instead prefers the word State. The term policy and politics in the above definition is one way States express themselves. Therefore, one can conclude from the above that war is an act that enables states to solve disputes. Mao would say war is political bloodshed. The upshot of all this is that war as we know it from the movies and contemporary books of history is a brutal and violent political way through which States fix problems. However, this definition refers mainly to conventional conflicts. Those are often associated with states and have been leading the realm of military engagements for more than three centuries.

Indeed, the history of conventional wars is linked with that of States. It is a direct result of the Westphalia's Peace of 1648. Actually, the treaty of Westphalia created a new world order with States as the unique rulers. If medieval Europe were an insecure place before the thirty-year wars (where anyone with money could raise an army and wage wars), the post-Westphalian world would define a new era with the dictatorship of States. With it came words like sovereignty. This "State centric system" is the one the world still lives in today. It grants many privileges to the sovereign States. Among these is the monopoly of legitimate violence or force. An example of this Westphalian order legacy is that only States can declare wars on one another. For instance, in the United States constitution, that prerogative belongs to the congress that can declare war. To sum up, the peace of Westphalia set the foundations of conventional warfare. Warfare between two or many States (eventually kingdoms) fighting through their respective armies with specific types of equipment and rules.

After the peace agreement, war theoreticians that followed confirmed the conventional war as THE way to fight. Napoleon fought all his wars according to that model. It is the model that Clausewitz and Jomini explained in their books. And if we glance at the recent history of conflicts, almost all the wars we know were conventional. The two world wars are typical examples.

Furthermore, what is taught in military academies, staff, and war colleges is how to fight and win in a conventional war. The world today lives the heritage of Westphalia. Even the culture is an ambassador of the conventional wars. According to the internet movies database, 8 of the ten first war movies relate to conventional warfare. We are heirs of the conventional war. The war we know, study, read and prepare to fight is conventional. Nevertheless, the time has come for war thinkers and strategists to expand their horizons and think otherwise. Many other conventional wars will likely happen, but the competition is tough, and other forms of conflicts will arise and challenge the traditional. The future of war does not belong to conventional wars only. A post-Westphalian world has risen.

2014, it's freezing on this winter day of February 27 on a peninsula in Europe. Everything anywhere looks normal until it is not. Strange people unknown in the region arrive in military units well organized. The conventional force in charge of security is easily outnumbered and forced to withdraw. One day later, the unknown force takes over the peninsula's principal airport and raises a foreign flag on its parliament. When the soldiers who escaped from this attack are questioned about the invader's identity, they say they don't know. They wore no identified insignias or uniforms. It is hard to tell to which country they belong. This scenario sounds like a fiction movie, but it did happen in the real world. In 2014, "Little Green Men" invaded the CRIMEA peninsula, took the airport of SIMFEROPOL, and raised Russia's flag above the regional parliament. When Putin was asked if those unidentified men were Russians, he allegedly said no. What could the international community do in reprisal? Nothing.

The arena in the post-Westphalian world has changed. The new world order is complex and difficult to apprehend, monitor and control. As we saw above, States with their armies were the almighty in the Westphalian world. International laws, rules, and traditions were the rule. Under the United States' western rule, the international community was in charge of enforcing the rules. Conversely, in a post-Westphalian world, the international relations arena has changed and is likely to change the future of war. At least for two reasons.

First, this paper argues that the ruled-based order will collapse because these laws are now easy to counter. If we think about the Little Green Men story above, it was almost impossible for the international community to sanction Russia since no formal proof existed to demonstrate that the invaders were Russians. To put it bluntly, the existing laws are easy to counter; many gray zones or blurry zones exist where ruling is almost impossible. Consider how states struggle (without great success) to tax the GAFA (Google, Amazon, Facebook, and Apple) because nobody knows which regulation to apply. The example can be extended to using cryptocurrencies that escape boundaries and rules. To come back to our scenario, which economic sanction could be possible for the Russian officials if they had most of their assets in bitcoin? After the invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, a wave of international sanctions pushed many oligarchs to use bitcoins that escape all regulations. Because international laws are easy today to escape, because many legal and law void exist in the international arena, new actors are likely to emerge and exploit it in the future for a new type of wars.

Secondly, the international arena is changing because even when laws exist, no mechanism exists to enforce them. "There is no international judiciary, police force, or prisons, so it doesn't matter if you ignore it." States have been violating the rules and norms openly without being sued or impeached by the international community. In March 2003, the United States built a coalition to invade Iraq despite many vetoes at the UN Security Council. President Koffi Hannan stated: "I have indicated it was not in conformity with the UN charter. From our point of view and from the charter point of view it was illegal." However, after the US illegal invasion, nothing happened. The example of the UN convention violation by the United States and its allies that went unpunished demonstrates that the United Nations "has abdicated its role of conflict preventionit did nothing meaningful to stop the wars in Iraq, Syria, Sudaneverywhere." If some States or actors can take measures against the system and escape unpunished, why should we expect others not to do the same? With which legitimacy the United Nations or the United States would speak when Russia invades Ukraine?

To summarize, the post-Westphalian international arena is one where it is easy to counter or escape the laws. Why would the rules of law apply to some actors and not to others? Due to the new arena of non-respect of law or tricking the regulations, the world in the future will face a growing entropy with new forms of conflict rising everywhere. This has already started and means the emergence of a new global system that Sean McFate calls "durable disorder." The durable disorder is the arena in which future wars will happen. Conflicts with new actors, with new ways and rules, and in which winning will change. The durable disorder will characterize and impact international relations and change the face of warfare.

If State to State wars still have a few days ahead, future wars will mainly be without States actors. In fact, because, in the durable disorder, the international community will no longer be able to protect the innocents (like in Iraq and Ukraine), one will witness the erosion of the State authority. For instance, in 2014, after the US left Iraq, a failed state, the weak country situation favored the rise of ISIS in Iraq and Syria. Ultimately, "The vacuum of authority left by retreating states will be filled by insurgents, caliphates, corporatocracies, narco-states, warlord kingdoms, mercenary overlords, and wastelands." In the context of the lost confidence in the Westphalia order and the arrival of the durable disorder, States will lose the legitimacy of legitimate violence. New non-State actors will hire warriors or mercenaries to wage wars on their behalf. Any reason will be good enough for these new players to wage wars. Make money, fight for faith or a belief, revenge, for its tribe

To take a case in point, the drug cartel fights in Mexico illustrate how new actors will fight each other within states without including national armies or police. In 2019, combats between cartel factions killed 34,582 people. The city of Acapulco was, in 2020, the theater of fierce fights between different cartels groups to control the trade in Mexico. A similar war situation within a State without States actors happened in 1994 in Rwanda. The assassination of the Hutu president Juvenal Habyarimana from Rwanda and Cyprien Ntaryamira from Burundi sparked a genocide that killed approximately 1,000,000 persons. This mass killing happened between two ethnic groups, the Hutus and the Tutsis, with no State intervention. In the same order, as already happening in Africa, many insurgent groups will challenge the State's authority and seek to secede or overthrow the government in place. That is the case in Cameroon, where the "Ambazonia insurgency" strives for secession. Obviously, the State will no longer be the only actor in wars; newcomers like rebellions, insurgencies, drug cartels, tribes, and political parties will wage wars.

Likewise, a new tendency that is also likely to emerge in the future is undercover wars. States will fight others states or groups using mercenaries or hired people, not their standing armies. They will frequently use private military companies to dodge international laws and wage wars. Countries will hire these companies to help them fight threats on their soil or abroad. The danger could be an insurgency, a terrorist organization, or whatever. In the Central African Republic, a failed State, the Wagner group rescued the new fragile government of Faustin Archange Touadera. It helped stop the Seleka rebellion and is now protecting the fragile State. The phenomenon is gaining ground as a strong trend. Early in 2022, another failed State, Mali, hired the services of the Wagner group for its security. The tendency to hire foreign fighters to help fight a cause is not only used by Russians or African countries. The united states did it in Iraq and Afghanistan. In 2022, President Zelensky publicly called for volunteers across the world to come and help Ukraine fight against Russia. In the future, as these examples show, money will allow States or people to pay private individuals or companies for military security. Powerful corporations or companies like Total, operating in dangerous waters like the Nigerian Gulf of Guinea, will pay private companies to protect them against the sea pirates.

In August 2021, after 20 years of engagement in Afghanistan, the mightiest army in the world withdrew from the country. For two decades, the US military, with all the technological dominance, could not succeed to compel the Taliban to surrender. The imposing F-35 aircraft, Humvees, Abrahams assault armored car, binocular night visions, and sniper rifles, all the fanciest recent sophisticated weapon systems one can imagine, did not help the US win in Afghanistan. As General Mark Milley, the Chairman of the Joint Chief of Staff, acknowledged: "It is clear, it is obvious to all of us, that the war in Afghanistan did not end on the terms we wanted, with the Taliban in power in Kabul." The same day, Milley conceded that the war in Afghanistan was a strategic failure. The debacle of the US troops in front of the Taliban, a weak and lousy train foe, means one thing; technology will no longer determine who wins or loses. In future wars, victory won't go to the strongest, but to whom fight the best in the global durable disorder order. If victory will not be assured with the best firepower and recent technology, which ways and means warriors of tomorrow will favor to achieve it?

We have seen that technology will not necessarily win tomorrow's wars. This is because warriors will change the way they fight. They will stop worshiping kinetic means like the best arm systems ever and turn to non-kinetic features. The ways-means of future wars will be "elements like information, refugees, ideology and time." These are elements that warriors of the future will weaponize to achieve victory. Anything that can be used as a weapon to serve one foe's interest will be of great use. This will be the ways and means of tomorrow and has already started today. Consider how Putin tried to weaponize space and the International Space Station for its interest in the Ukrainian-Russian war. The utility of force that Clausewitz so cherished will be thrown to the dustbin, and victors of tomorrow's wars will prefer to be sneaky and favor the economy of force.

In February 2020, a Russian offensive in Syria killed 33 Turkish citizens and angered Ankara, which threatened to open its frontier and let thousands of refugees enter Greece. After the Strike, the whole western world panicked and sought to find an agreement with Erdogan. Putin knew the narrative of Ankara to open its borders would continue to exacerbate nationalism in European Union and feed the migrant crisis that was ongoing there. On the other hand, the Turkish president knew that Europe would not risk another wave of the massive arrival of refugees on its shores like that of 2014 that favored Brexit and brought the far-right into power in Hungary, Italy, and almost France. Both Putin and Erdogan use the refugees as a weapon against Europe.

As we have already seen, the durable disorder is an era where nobody cares about the Westphalian order's rules and laws of the Westphalian order. Belligerents will not care about respecting laws of arms conflicts and will commit atrocities and war crimes. But it will not really matter because the paradigm would no longer be the same. Propaganda and plausible deniability will be stronger than firepower. In the future, victory may sometimes depend not on whose army wins, but on whose story wins." In an era of social media, future warriors will use information as a powerful weapon that will be more dangerous than nuclear warheads.

Furthermore, why will leaders of tomorrow or strategists think in terms of either war or peace? Instead, an intelligent foe could use the space between these two to achieve its political objective. One strategic failure of today's thinkers is that they see war as pregnancy; you are or are not. Tomorrow, the concept of either war or peace will be a false dichotomy. Belligerents will use the "war without war strategy." In other words, a wise thinker will always avoid escalation to an open conflict but sustain the tensions to the edge of war and then deescalate to avoid the explosion. The new condition resulting from the de-escalation representing the new status quo situation. Today's compromises becoming tomorrow's norms and standards. China is doing it in the South China Sea, and Russia did it to annex Crimea.

In 1945, after having killed the maximum number of enemies and gaining the maximum territories, the allies won World War 2. As a result, on May 8, 1945, Germany signed an unconditional surrender at the headquarters of US general Dwight Eisenhower. In the Westphalia ruled base order, the victor was the one who seized the most territories, killed the most foes, and won the decisive battles. But in the durable disorder order, victory may look different. It won't only be ye who killed the max enemy or won the maximum of battles, but it will be who reached its political objective. In Afghanistan, it is likely that the US-led coalition won more fights than the Taliban and killed more enemies, but they did not win the war. So did it happen before in Iraq and Vietnam. Because victory like war has moved on.

As we have already seen, wars tomorrow will have another face, and so will victory. It will only consist of denying the opponent a clear winning. A sort of just existing as a belligerent until your opponent gets tired and quits. This happened in Afghanistan in 2021. The coalition may argue that it won almost all the battles, but the truth is; it did not win the war. Winning all the battles and still losing the war is a "bifurcated victory" and doesn't mean political victory. The political triumph is what the Taliban achieved. All one foe needs to do for such achievements is deny the political success to the other and keep existing. By existing on the battlefield only, you achieve almost your political victory and deny it to the opponent. In tomorrow's wars, weaker adversaries will win if they don't lose, and more robust will lose if they don't win. The theory of victory for belligerents will be to exist on the battlefield until the opponent resigns and gives up.

Homo homini lupus. This Latin maxim means "Man is wolf to man." In other words, it refers to the aggressive character of humans towards others in the State of nature. Only a superior being can prevent this behavior. It implies that war will never end between humans because it is their nature. Human history is full of war stories from ancient Egypt of pharaohs until the contemporary Russia of Putin. It has been there, present, immutable. Its nature seems eternal, a bloody path to set political disputes. However, its character has evolved with time. For the past three centuries, it was the property of Nation-States, and no one else could wage it. Before this period, influential landowners had the power to raise armies and go to war. Because it evolves with its time, it is crucial to understand what its future will look like to be well prepared. This paper was an essay on its future. It argued that conventional wars as we know them today will decrease; and will emerge a new type of warfare with new actors, new ways, and ends. The main reason for the shift will be the changing of the international paradigm. The world order based on the Westphalian treaty will end with the dominance of Nation-States and rules/laws. A new world order based on durable disorder will arise from its ashes and be the future arena of tomorrow's wars.

In this new arena, States will share the right to wage wars with non-State actors, mercenaries will return, technology will not be the guarantee of victory, plausible deniability will help states wage wars and deny it, nobody will respect the rules of armed conflicts, peace and war will coexist simultaneously, nuclear deterrence through mutually assured destruction will be obsolete, best weapons won't fire bullets, non-State wars will exist, and victory will be fungible. It is up to today's leaders and strategists to anticipate the onset of this entropic era and get ready. Failure to think strategically about the future of war and adapt is an existential threat for countries today. Strategic education in a post-Westphalian world is the commencement of readiness for that dark epoch.

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The Future of War - smallwarsjournal